CFB National Championship Free Play

By

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January 9, 2023

I’m 13-8, +4.75u in the CFB Postseason and am looking to finish strong with another winner tonight.

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*CFB(1u): Georgia -13 vs TCU–6:30 PM CT

None of what I’m about to say is to take away from all TCU has done to make it to this point. With that said, last week’s win over Michigan featured yet another string of improbable results that led to the win. Michigan’s JJ McCarthy threw 2 pick sixes, and the Wolverines turned the ball over inside TCU’s 5 yard-line on 2 separate occasions(one fumble on the one, one turnover on downs). Going up against this Georgia offense and a group of guys who have won on this stage, I don’t see the Horned Frogs being able to repeat that formula.

Contrary to popular belief, Georgia is a pass-first offense that is quite explosive; the Bulldogs rank 2nd in the nation in yards/play, and Stetson Bennett attempted 34 passes(for nearly 400 yards) vs Ohio State. I think this matches up quite well going against a TCU secondary that has shown cracks all season. Despite the mistakes, JJ McCarthy still threw for over 10 Y/A on this TCU secondary, and prior to that, the Horned Frogs had allowed over 11 Y/A to KSU’s Will Howard as well as 9 Y/A to Baylor’s Blake Shapen. They’ve had quite a bit of success in confusing younger QB’s(think Quinn Ewers), but that’s obviously not the role they find themselves in tonight. I’m not all that high on Georgia’s run game and actually think TCU could put up a pretty good fight against the run, but I don’t see any edge for TCU going up against a borderline elite Georgia OL. While the run defense has been mostly good, explosive runs continue to be an issue for this unit.

I’ve always described TCU’s offense as more “explosive” than “consistent”. I think that’s exemplified by how Max Duggan has played this postseason; against both Kansas State and Michigan, Duggan completed 50% or less of his passes but was able to generate some big plays down the field. If you look at Georgia’s last 2 games, perhaps you could believe that Duggan should have no problem creating downfield explosion against this Georgia secondary. Personally, I haven’t forgotten how silly this Georgia secondary made two of the best offenses in CFB(Oregon, Tennessee) look throughout various portions of the season. As a Buckeye bettor last week, I simply believed Ohio State had the horses in their passing game to match up with a very good defense. Regardless of your concern level with this UGA secondary, it’s undeniable that this is a Top 2 run defense in CFB. TCU’s #1 RB Kendre Miller will be playing at far less than 100%, and while you have to account for an explosive run or two, I don’t see TCU finding much consistency in establishing the run. While I wouldn’t call Georgia’s pass rush the staple of their defense, I do think the Bulldogs hold a pretty clear edge in the trenches. They sacked CJ Stroud 4 times last week despite facing a very good OL, and TCU has allowed 4 or more sacks on 4 separate occasions this year.

Other plays that just missed my card were Georgia 1H -7.5 and Georgia TT OVER 38/38.5. I know TCU has fought their way back into games all season, but they also haven’t faced the perfect storm of experienced QB, explosive passing game, staunch run defense, elite OL/DL like they will tonight. I’ve backed Georgia in their biggest moments all season(expect last week) and think they pull away and win this comfortably.

CFB Title Game Pick

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 8, 2023

TCU/Georgia alt total over 64.5 (+105), to win 2.5 units

I see the narrative of this game going in one direction. The Bulldogs have been able to score readily on average to bad defenses. In games against teams with defenses that fit such a description, Georgia has cranked out totals in the 40s over and over again, mostly in big games too, including a 50 burger on LSU. I think the lowest possible score is something like 42-24, which would still put us over our needed total. TCU will get their points eventually, probably after Georgia goes up and they chase. Or even if TCU creates margin first, Georgia will absolutely create points to keep up. Either way, this game is all about offense, although the big bad Bulldogs will probably make the right stops when it matters. Lean Georgia -12.5, but love our total.

Early NBA Premium, 1.9

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 8, 2023

Lakers/Nuggets over 239.5 (-110), to win 2 units

This line will only rise, and Lakers’ totals are still sky high. Denver is lights out at home and LAL isn’t playing a lick of defense on the road.

No Basketball Picks Today

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 8, 2023

CBB goes 4-2 for +2 units Saturday, that was fun, and we’ll have more and more CBB plays as we continue to experience insanity in the NBA.

I mean why would we expect the Warriors to win, at home, off 3 days rest, with a renewed roster, when they’ve been immaculate at the Chase Center? How dumb of us. Eye roll.

No picks today – see ya’ll tomorrow!

Premiums, 1.7

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 7, 2023

The Bucks allowed 50 points in the 1st QTR, at home, completely healthy, to one of the league’s worst teams in the Charlotte Hornets. Milwaukee lost 138-109. That’s all you need to know about this NBA season so far.

Did a bunch of research this morning, exhausted, so here are my picks with little explanation. Sorry about that – gotta get the day going:

NBA:

Warriors 1H -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Magic/Warriors under 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Warriors -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The return of Iguodala is a nice leadership spark for a Warriors team that’s starting to gain some steam. The Magic are a much better team this year but this is a tough spot against Golden State, off 3 days rest. Warriors defense has been great at home, Wiggins is back– time for the Warriors to roll from the jump.

CBB (3-4, -0.57 units):

Creighton +7 (-110), to win 1 unit

Creighton is a really good basketball team in good spots and in their conference, just not against unfamiliar teams. UCONN is familiar– I think they give them all they can handle.

Alabama -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Bama’s pace at home will be too much for Kentucky, who’s just not built with the same pedigree as they had in the past.

George Mason -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Loyola isn’t the same brand this year either and they’ve been really struggling in rebounding, one area that could kill them today. Mason’s ball movement is elite and I see them overwhelming the Ramblers at home.

Michigan/Michigan St. under 139.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

I love Kiev’s handicap at TheOddsBreakers in this game and I tend to agree; even more so between two big rivals. This will have a testy, raucous mid-season feel with a lot of defense.

Villanova -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Just the better team, at home, with more experience and pedigree, even though Xavier has been on a white-hot-run– this is the time for it to falter.

Green Bay +13 (-110), to win 1 unit

Cleveland State just isn’t used to being this heavy of a favorite, especially in-conference– they failed to cover on Nov 18th the last time they were this big of a favorite– last year Cleveland State got the better of them twice by margin, too. Significant motivation for the dog.

Saturday, January 7th CBB Free Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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January 7, 2023

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*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER 129.5–11 AM CT

Both teams rank in the bottom quarter of the country in pace, and neither are trustworthy offensively. Nebraska shoots less than 30% from 3, and while the Golden Gophers are a bit better from deep, they shoot less than 43% overall from the floor. Both also hold a 1.0-1.1 assist/turnover ratio; that could be worse, but it’s not good enough to overcome their struggles in the shotmaking department.

A HUGE factor in me playing the full game Under is how bad these teams are from the foul line. Minnesota shoots just 59% from the charity stripe, good for 361st out of 363 teams. Nebraska’s 63.5% mark might seem substantially better, but that’s still a bottom 20 mark in the country. This one’s staying Under.

*CBB(1u): Xavier 1H +1 @ Villanova–3:30 PM CT

Villanova has simply lost a step in its first year following Jay Wright’s departure. We had seen the defense slip before, and that remains true this season(I do not have this power rated as a Top 100 defense). But, in my opinion, their offense is not what people think it is. If you’re going to play at the slow pace Villanova likes to play at, you have to rely on the ability to make jumpers. Well, Villanova has regressed in that area. In particular, the ‘Cats are shooting less than 34% from beyond the arc this season. That’s a concern given they also rank 319th in offensive rebounding %, providing little chance for second chance points.

I really like the makeup of this Xavier team. They’re an experienced group that is shooting nearly 51% from the floor and holds a borderline elite 1.5 assist/turnover ratio. The defense lags behind a bit, but I think they’ll be bailed out by Villanova’s lack of presence inside. In addition, the Musketeers are in great current form fresh off a double-digit win over UCONN.

Villanova is still the best free-throw shooting team in America, so out of respect for that, I’ll isolate this in the 1H. With that said, there’s plenty pointing me towards a play on Xavier here, especially as a ‘dog.

College Basketball 1/7/22 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 7, 2023

Michigan vs Michigan State -3.5 O/U 139.5

The rivalry continues in East Lansing today with two motivated teams trying to make some headwind in the big 10! Michigan State is looked at as the slightly better team who had a lull in their season when Malik Hall was out. This is why they are favored with home court and the hook. Sparty this year has slowed it down some ranking 249th in average possession length, and improving their defense to 49th. Michigan on the other hand still has their big lumberjack center in Hunter Dickenson who averages 18.7 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. He is the heart and soul of this team. Last year these two teams split in their games and each won at home by margin. Now the wolverines under Juwan Howard have a slightly faster pace ranking 98th in average possession length, but that doesn’t factor in that they have had a relatively easy non-conference schedule playing weak defenses in transition. I think the spread is good on this game so I will look at the total here. Sparty should be able to control the clock in this game with their slow pace and I also love the fact that both teams rank in the top 37 in turnovers and in the bottom 70 in forcing turnovers. Hunter Dickenson, being so large, sometimes can’t run the court for the full duration of the game so there will be times that Michigan will have to slow it down or sub him out. Malik Hall will be defending him and both players know each other quite well. Big 10 play means big defense. Take the under.

Under 139.5 – 2 stars

NFL Week 18 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 7, 2023

ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Lions vs Packers -5 O/U 49

Lots can be said about this game being that the Lions will either have a shot at the playoffs by game-time if the Rams beat the Seahawks, or their hopes and dreams will be crushed and the Packers win by one million. Or…. Is Dan Campbell a coach that is going to have his team pissed off to take the sniveling packers out of playoff contention? I think the latter. We know that the Packers have been a good team when they got healthy ripping off four wins in a row, but lets be real. Beating Chicago, the beat up Rams, concussed Miami, and an over-rated Vikings team doesn’t do it for me. When looking at the numbers here, you have to also factor in that the Lions were very banged up earlier in the season as well. Now the Lions have an added weapon in Jameson Williams, which will help pick apart the Packers secondary. The Lions are number six in offensive EPA while the Packers are 12th. Detroit is number 31 in defensive EPA while the Packers are 25h, but over the past 5 weeks, the Lions are up to 25th in defensive EPA. I think the Lions are about equal in strength to this Packers team, and the spread should be 3 at best.

Lions +5 – 3 stars

Parlay: Jaguars -250 with Saints -165 – 2 stars – Jaguars are playing at home against a backup quarterback in Josh Dobbs. The Saints will want to finish the season well after being embarrassed all year.

Teaser: Bengals to -2.5 with the Browns to +8.5 – 2 stars

Better Odds Sports Betting January 7th 2023 – NFL Week 18 – Season 3-1

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 7, 2023

Today Matt Landes @MLandes18 joins @OBKiev to discuss the NFL slate of games for the weekend with big plays and big props!

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Premiums, 1.6

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 6, 2023

New customers are probably like: WTF? Same.

More drudgery on Thursday, but we’re not giving up yet. Remember, this is how we did the last two seasons:

2020-21: 207-152 (58%), +55 units
2021-22: 283-223 (56%), +73.10 units

Regression is coming, eventually. Hang on–

NBA:

Bulls +4 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The 76ers are a great team but the Bulls, holding my breath here, are indeed playing better basketball right now. This line fell with Embiid out and it’s reasonable to think the Bulls could win this game outright. Because of that, gotta love the +4. Chicago has a B2B tomorrow but they should care more about this game. Unless Harden goes off (eye roll), this should be a close game or a Bulls win.

Nets -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Unless Brooklyn completely shits the bed, the Pelicans will struggle keeping up with Nets; this is where Zion and Ingram’s absence really comes into play.

Raptors -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

This line doesn’t make sense at first glance. Toronto has struggled mightily this season and hasn’t seemed as much of a unit as they have in the past. But I really like how they played against Milwaukee the other night. The Knicks have no presence on their team like Giannis, and even though RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson are playing well, I expect a much healthier Raptors team to limit. They’re on a long home stand, too. Stickin ‘my neck out again for Toronto– this is their spot to win.

Hornets/Bucks 1Q over 59.5 (-105), to win 1 unit

Bucks 1H -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Bucks -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units

We’ve seen a lot of blow outs lately as great teams are starting to find their flow. The NBA Injury Report says Giannis and Jrue will both be available tonight, and that’s all we need to know. I don’t think the Hornets defense can stop Milwaukee for 1 second and the Bucks’ aren’t playing playoff defense yet. Like a fast start, and as long as some crazy NBA injury news doesn’t pull a fast one on us, this is a smash spot for the Bucks.

CBB (2-2, -0.2 units)

Oakland +7 (-110), to win 1.5 units

This checks out as a close game between two pretty evenly matched teams, and I love that Northern Kentucky is a bad 3 point defense and the Grizzlies are an above average team from beyond the arc. This should remain tight throughout.

Columbia ML (+500), to win 2.5 units

Columbia +11.5 (-110) to win 1.25 units

We’ve seen this story before in intra-divisional teams when a home opponent is a big dog. Five of Columbia’s wins have come at home, and while Princeton is clearly the better squad, they haven’t exactly faced the class of college basketball in their non-divisional games. Columbia shoots 3-pointers at a high rate, a rate Princeton might not be ready for, and if they start falling the momentum could build for the Lions at home.