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NHL Preview & Picks – March 6th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Pick(s):

  • San Jose Sharks / Winnipeg Jets over 6.0 (-120) – PointsBet

San Jose has now dropped eight of their last ten games. They’re coming off a seven-game homestand where they only picked up three points. During that span, they were outscored by opponents 31-18. While the Sharks have struggled defensively, they’ve still been able to score a few each game. They’ve scored at least three goals in three of their last four games aiding the total. Kaapo Kahkonen has been confirmed as the starter tonight for San Jose. In his last start, he struggled allowing eight goals on thirty shots.

Winnipeg has been in a freefall themselves ending their five-game losing streak on Saturday against the Oilers. In their last three games, they’ve shown some signs of life offensively averaging 5.0 goals during that span. Defensively, they’ve been awful allowing at least four goals against in each of their last five games. David Rittich will get the start tonight who has a -0.7 GSAx on the season.

This game should have plenty of goals tonight for a variety of reasons. The first is the poor defensive play both teams have displayed in their recent games. The goaltender match is also to our advantage as both have been sub-par this season. Lastly, San Jose and Winnipeg have shown that they can at least put up 3 a piece which is all we need tonight as the total is listed at 6.

 

  • Los Angeles Kings in Regulation (-102) – FanDuel

Washington has been much better as of late winning three of their last four but before that, they had lost six straight. The Capitals are ending their three-game West Coast road trip tonight in Los Angeles. They’ve gone undefeated so far winning their last two games against Anaheim and San Jose. Darcy Kuemper has been confirmed as the starter for them tonight who’s allowed at least three goals in eight of his last ten starts.

Los Angeles has been on a tear lately winning seven of their last ten, including their last three. They’ve been dominant on home ice this season with a 19-9-2 record and have won their last five games at Crypto.com Arena. Newly acquired Joonas Korpisalo will get the start for the Kings tonight who was impressive in his debut stopping 24 of 26.

This spot favors the Kings who have been much more consistent as of late. Washington faced inferior opponents in their last two games which has inflated their offensive production. Los Angeles should be able to defeat the Caps tonight and win this in regulation.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Gabriel Vilardi over 0.5 Points (+104) – FanDuel
    • Gabriel Vilardi has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five games.
  • Tyler Seguin over 0.5 Points (+106) – FanDuel
    • Tyler Seguin has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four games. In his eleven previous matchups against the Flames, Seguin has recorded over 0.5 points seven times.
  • Dylan Cozens over 0.5 Points (-118) – FanDuel
    • Dylan Cozens has gone over this number in five of his last ten games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last five. He’s on the Sabres top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Edmonton has taken three or more penalties in nine of their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Oilers, Cozens recorded over 0.5 points twice.
  • Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
    • Leon Draisaitl has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Sabres rank 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.13. At home, that number drops slightly to 32.23. Buffalo has also given up the 13th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last five games.
  • Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
    • Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Oilers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.64. On the road, that number drops increases to 32.52. Edmonton has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last five games.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

MLB Season Preview Part 2/7 – NL Central

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at Theoddsbreakers.com shortly.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

NL Central

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

St. Louis Cardinals -135/ 88.5

Milwaukee Brewers +170/ 85.5

Chicago Cubs +425/ 77.5

Pittsburgh Pirates +4500/ 68

Cincinnati Reds +4500/ 65.5

St. Louis Cardinals

The Redbirds are the favorite in the NL Central this year and rightfully so. Led by reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado the redbirds became more potent at and behind the dish with the addition of Willson Contreras through free agency. Tommy Edman is one of the best leadoff men in the league atop the lineup. They have plenty of depth all around the lineup and Jordan Walker waiting in the wings. The starting pitching staff isn’t elite and to put in kindly….it’s old. Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas are at the top of the rotation. Jordan Montgomery was a solid addition last year in a trade with the Yankees. If Jack Flaherty can return to his pre-injury form the Cards will find a few more wins. The bullpen has plenty of power arms with lots of whiff material. Ryan Helsey will close most nights with Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Hicks getting him the ball. Prediction 90-72

Milwaukee Brewers

I was very high on the Crew last year, but I didn’t take one thing into account. Their lack of depth. Once the injury bug started biting the team fell apart. The team didn’t do much to address internal depth in the off-season, but they did make upgrades at catcher by signing William Contreras. Willy Adams finally started living up to his pedigree in 2022 launching 31 Homers. Christian Yelich hasn’t played up to his MVP standard since he won it, but is still formidable. Rowdy Tellez is an underrated power bat in the heart of the lineup. The bottom half of the lineup and the bench is below average. The staff is the strength of the Crew led by 2021 Cy Young Corbin Burnes. Word on the street is he wants out of Milwaukee and that’s something to keep and eye on this year. Brandon Woodruff is solid as a #2 Arm. Freddy Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff on the planet and if he can find a way to stay healthy could increase their chances of bypassing the Cards in the division. Speaking of nasty stuff, closer Devin Williams’ change-up if one of the nastiest pitches you’ll find. The Rest of the bullpen will struggle to hold leads however. Prediction 84-78

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are still rebuilding I think… They let Willson Contreras walk to a division rival, but then spent a bunch of money to sign Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Tucker Barnhardt. All of whom are projected to start for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner has blossomed into a homegrown elite leadoff contact hitter with a great mix of speed and a little pop. The rotation isn’t strong with Marcus Stroman likely getting the ball on opening day. Justin Steele has some potential, but the rest of the group is underwhelming. The bullpen has breakout Brandon Hughes set to work in some high leverage capacity, and they signed Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer to add some depth. I think a lot of the signings are simply paying for decent trade pieces as we get to July this year. The Cubs are still a few years and a few arms away from competing again. Prediction 77-85

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates didn’t make as many free agent signings as the Cubs only bringing back Andrew McCutchen alongside Carlos Santana and Rich Hill, but I think they are actually on a faster trajectory towards being competitive. Bryan Reynolds likely wont be around to see the competitive team, but for now he’s the best in the lineup. O’Neill Cruz is something special. Watch the effortless power in his swing and you’ll be in awe. Rodolofo Castro has some interesting tools, and other top prospect Endy Rodriguez may be up at some point this year. The rotation isn’t great, but Roansy Contreras will be a #1 starter if not this year then in 2024. Mitch Keller was highly touted, but just hasn’t put things together. David Bednar has emerged as an elite closer who I think will get traded later in the season. The restof the bullpen is well below MLB average. I think the Bucs will win some games early before trading away pieces and fading in August and September. Prediction 70-92

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds will look for some bounce back seasons for their young talent as they continue their rebuild. Where the Pirates have the batters with high potential I like the young Cincinnati arms coming up. The hitters needing to get on track are Jonathan India and Nick Senzel. They signed Wil Myers for some vetaran pop and they still have Joey Votto around, but he is now well past his prime. They have three really good homegrown arms in the rotation in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Both Greene and Lodolo could be future #1’s. Alexis Diaz will be the teams closer this year, but there are no other decent arms in the bullpen. Prediction 69-93

NL Central Free Plays

One item of note is that with the adjusted more balanced schedule the games played vs division opponents this year is 13. That means that each division is going to go 130-130 against itself instead of the 190-190 of previous years. What that means in this scenario is that the Cards and Brewers have less games to beat up on the Bucs, Cubs and Reds and more games against a much more balanced American League.

I like the Cards to win this division, but the price is set correctly. The Brewers at +170 is the only way to play this one, but again I think it takes a very healthy season for them to make it happen so I am passing on the division markets here.

Cincinnati Reds over 65.5 1 Unit

 

 

 

 

MLB Season Preview Part 1/7 – NL East

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at Theoddsbreakers.com shortly.

I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.

NL East

Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals

New York Mets +120 / 94.5

Atlanta Braves +130 / 95

Philadelphia Phillies +300 / 88.5

Miami Marlins +2200 / 76

Washington Nationals +9000 / 59.5

New York Mets

I thought the Mets spent big last year, but Steve Cohen continues to show its all-in now as he gave out nearly $500 Million in Free agent contracts this off season. They let the oft injured Jacob Degrom walk away, but brought in Justin Verlander to replace him. If Verlander and Max Scherzer can stay healthy they will be one of the top 1-2 tandems in baseball at the top of a rotation. They also added Japanese import Kodai Senga who projects similar to Shohei Ohtani on the mound with a little less gas on the fastball. Senga also throws a pitch known as the “Ghost Fork” which leaves hitters baffled. Edwin Diaz is the premier closer in baseball at the back of the bullpen and the Mets added David Robertson to go with Adam Ottavino to get the ball to him. The lineup is anchored by Pete “Beef” Alonso, who should be ready for an MVP type season. Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte have speed at the top of the lineup setting the table for Alonso and Francisco Lindor. The two of them combined for 238 RBIs in 2022. The bottom half of the lineup features on base machine Jeff McNeil, but is average at best by MLB standards. Prediction 94-68

Atlanta Braves

The Braves lost Dansby Swanson to the Cubs, but keep producing solid MLB talent. They will now get a full season from the biggest trio of talent from last year Vaughn Grissom, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. Add that onto what should be a healthy version of Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies and this team is ready to compete for their 6th straight division title. The Sean Murphy addition gives the Braves the top catching duo in MLB. The rotation also looks to get healthy after having Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton and Max Fried all miss time. Raisel Iglesias will close, but outside of AJ Minter there are some question marks in the pen. I think the Braves have the superior lineup to the Mets, but I like the Mets rotation and bullpen better. I just couldn’t pick a winner here, its gonna take game 163. Prediction 94-68

Philadelphia Phillies

The Reigning MLB champs will be without superstar Bryce Harper for likely half the season as he recovers from elbow surgery. They did make the biggest free agent splash signing Trea Turner. He will leadoff for the Phils and have Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos hitting behind him. The bottom half of the order is below average. The have a solid top of the rotation with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and they added Taijuan Walker in Free Agency. Ranger Suarez will go at #4, but the 5th starter is yet to be determined. The bullpen features some closers of days gone by with Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. The lack of pitching depth didn’t slow the Phils last year, but even with the Turner addition I think they will need to add an impact starter along the way to compete with the Mets and Braves. Prediction 86-76

Miami Marlins

The Fish added Luis Arrraez and Jean Segura to a lineup that will get back star in the making Jazz Chisholm. The middle of the order is anchored by Garrett Cooper and Avisail Garcia which isn’t great. Jorge Soler has the biggest upside potential if he can get his power stroke in sync early. The rotation is led by 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo. The Fish hope Trevor Rogers can regain his 2021 form, and they also signed Johnny Cueto to eat some innings. The only real power arm in the pen is Tanner Scott. AJ Puk Could also be a factor there if Dylan Floro falters as closer. Overall however the pen is going to lose them more than a few games. Prediction 75-87

Washington Nationals

After winning only 55 games last year while trading away Juan Soto, the Nationals are in for another rough season. They do have some young talent looking to take a stride in the right direction led by C.J. Abrams and Joey Meneses. Lane Thomas proved a valuable two way breakout player last year as well. Signing Jeimer Candelario, Corey Dickerson, and Dominic Smith in free agency isn’t going to win the division, but it should lead to more wins. The rotation doesn’t have one arm with a projected ERA below 4, and only Kyle Finnegan can make that claim in the bullpen. The Nats should be better than last year, but they won’t be competing anytime soon. Prediction 62-100

NL East Free Plays

Philadelphia Phillies Under 88.5 Wins 1 Unit

Washington Nationals Over 59.5 Wins 1 Unit

I haven’t seen it yet, but I’ll likely be playing the Nationals to Give up most runs in MLB

 

 

College Basketball Saturday Super Plays 3/4/23 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

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Tennessee vs Auburn -1.5 O/U 131.5

If there is a game that Auburn needs to win, it is this one.  The Tigers fought hard in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night, but it ended up being too hard to overcome a 15-20 point home court advantage for the Crimson Tide thus losing in overtime after being up double digits.   Auburn isn’t a great team by any means, but they do play some good defense ranking 22nd in efficiency and 4th in opponent three point percentage.   The Vols shoot a lot of threes ranking 105th at 40% of all possessions and they now have lost their point guard Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL for the season.   Bad news for Tennessee.   Looking at how the Vols do on the road, it is pretty dismal.  They shoot 46.1 effective FG% away while Auburn shoots 49.8% at home.  Haslametrics ranks Tennessee 358th away from home and will struggle against a now bubble team like Auburn.   I see the motivation here for Auburn to get this big win on Senior night and maybe they get some make up whistles do to the robbery in their last game.

Auburn -1.5 – 2.5 stars

Duke vs North Carolina -3 O/U 139

When these two teams face off for one last time, you know that it is March!   UNC is playing their way into the NCAA tournament over the last few games with a big win vs Virginia and double digit win at Florida State.  UNC did lose to the Dukies the last time they played in early February by six points, but I believe that the tides have finally turned.  Neither of these two teams shoot well with Duke ranking 190th in effective FG% and the Tar Heels ranking 241st, but what I see is a Duke team that had it pretty easy in their last 5 wins playing four of those games at home in an easier ACC conference this year.   Duke is a poor road team in General ranking 343rd away from home while UNC ranks 41st at home.   One of the Blue Devil’s big problems is turning over the ball ranking 218th in the nation at 18.7% of possessions while North Carolina ranks 23rd at 15.3%.  I expect the Tar Heels to be very aggressive here on Senior Night and punch their ticket into the NCAA Tournament.

UNC PK -155 – 1 star

Parlay: UNC -155 with Miami -255 +126 – 2 stars – Miami can win the ACC with this game, but so can Pitt.  Miami is the much better team and playing at home.  I think they take care of business and so does the market.

Better Odds Sports Betting March 3rd 2023 – College Basketball 3/4/23 – Season 3 Episode 6 (60)

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Today Kyle Hunter @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev  discuss the big weekend in college hoops with some great questions and free plays!   Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

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Back this Team on the Hardwood with a Chip on it’s Shoulder

By
Eric Rocco
-

if you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter.

Orlando at Charlotte +3.5 (O/U 225) 7:00pm ET

The Magic came off a night where defense was the furthest thing from their minds, then again they played Milwaukee who looks like a well chiseled machine right now. Previous to this game, their defense was holding teams to 46% shooting, on 102 points a game in their L3.

Now we have the Hornets who have turned into under machines as of recently, going under in 5 straight, 6 of 7 and 11 of 13. With an average margin of 15.6 in their L6 unders. Going forward they will have to do it without their triple/double star Lamelo Ball, who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Then we have Terry Rozier, who just came back from injury and has not been at his best, shooting under 33% since his return. Ironically their defense has turned it on, giving up an average of 105 points per game in their L5.

This Magic squad has the ability to go ice cold from the field at any time more than any other team in this league. The Hornets held the Magic to 44% shooting in their 3 match-ups this season already. As well, the Magic have shot 44%, and 31% from three in their L5. Speaking of unders, the Magic have been on a run of their own. Going under in 8 of 10, with an average margin of 16.3 in those contests.

Under 225 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit

Utah at Oklahoma City -1 (O/U 231) 8:00pm ET

The Jazz are off a back to back vs San Antonio where they split and didn’t exactly seem like they wanted to be there. Scoring a season low 94 points and committing 20 turnovers, vs a 16 win SA team, not good. You could say the Jazz have owned the Thunder as of recently, winning their last 8 match-ups in the series. Tonight will feature a game without its stars. Shai has been out of the L4 games with an abdominal injury, with the Thunder going win-less without him while trying to find their identity. Now the Jazz will be without Jordan Clarkson for a 2nd straight game, who as I’ve said in the past, drains a lot of 3’s, but also commits a lot of turnovers. Averaging 5.5 TO’s in his L4 games, as well as shooting 4/17 from downtown in his L3. Coach Hardy was not pleased with the sloppy play vs SA, and hopes his team can get back to basics. Doing it without Clarkson, could be a blessing in disguise.

The Jazz may have not played many away games recently(14 of 20 at home), but went 3-0-1 ATS on their previous road trip. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 away. They have enjoyed playing the underdog role, currently 19-8-1 ATS this season as dogs. Now they may only be small dogs tonight, but still considered the inferior team non-the-less.

With no Shai playing, I’m not sure the Thunder will be able to keep up with the Jazz offensively. This is a great spot to back the Jazz, they’re 10-4 ATS off a loss when going on the road, and will be a small UNIT UPGRADE for me.

Jazz +1 (FanDuel -110) 1.25 units

LA Clippers at Sacramento -8 (O/U 240) 10:00pm ET

The Los Angeles Clippers are in flames right now, losing 4 straight since the break. Westbrook is still trying to find his role, as well as all the newbies. This is the same Clipper team at one time that was considered title contenders and some still do have that opinion. Now they are on a back to back, still on the road, Kawai sitting for ‘rest’ and the media dissecting every part of their game, specifically Paul George and all the Westbrook trends(14 straight losses as a starter). Now they play the team where all this mess started, Sacramento. An OT loss of 176-175, with tons of chances for the Clippers to leave LA with a victory.

Sacramento is 3-0 ATS vs the Clippers this season, but this is a whole new squad to prepare for. Westbrook, Plumlee, Gordon, Bones and more minutes from the reserves. Particularly tonight where they could be short handed and will have to gel together as a unit to beat the Kings.

The Kings are 4-0 ATS and SU since the All-Star break, beating OKC twice with no Shai as of recently, the OT extravaganza vs the Clippers and a Blazer squad who chose to sit most of their starters that night. The Kings ‘got by’ the Shai-less Thunder and struggled mightily vs Portland’s second unit. Feasting on bad teams is their specialty, going 20-11 ATS vs teams under .500, opposed to 12-15-1 vs teams above .500. Heading home off a win hasn’t fared too well at the Golden 1 Center, going 6-9-1 ATS.

The Kings rank dead last in their L5 defensively, giving up 30 assists and 128 points per game. Now they have to face a hungry Clipper squad with a chip on its shoulder. Give me the 8 points!

Clippers +8 (Barstool -107) 2 units

Let’s head March in the right direction and crush this Friday slate!

College Basketball Buy Low Sell High 3/3/23

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buy Low:

Wisconsin:  They are on the bubble and they know it.  They will be looking to cover over the next few games.  This team is better than the 68 rating on Kenpom.  They are top 50 in my opinion.

Creighton:  This team is too good to mess with even after a couple bad losses to Marquette and Villanova.  Their future odds look pretty good and I may be on one of them.

Villanova:  This team still isn’t in the big dance, but a win over Uconn at the end might seal the deal.

Sell High:

Vanderbilt: The Commodores beat Kentucky but their best player Liam Robbins got injured pretty bad and will miss time. This team is in for some serious troubles.

FAU:  Easy Conference but no way is this team top 31 in the nation like Kenpom says.   Two road games to finish the season and they have faltered away from home.

Tennessee:  They just lost one of their star players to a torn ACL in Zakai Zeigler.   They might rally at Auburn, but look to fade later.

 

 

Podcast 16 – 23 – With Lou Finocchiaro – College Basketball March 4th – UFC 285 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have an great show for you today!  Lou Finocchiaro @GambLou from The ‘Bout Business Podcast and contributor at VSIN come’s back on to break down UFC 285 Jon Jones vs Cyril Gane!  First, Kiev talks about some promotions and our NCAA tournament challenge coming up next month!  Next, Kiev get’s into some college basketball with some buy low and sell high teams for the near future.  Then, we break some big college hoops games for the weekend!  After that Gamblou comes on to discuss a huge UFC 285 card!   Can Jon Jones win this fight?  What are the best betting angles in the card?   We have some FREE PLAYS as usual.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Thursday, March 2nd CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

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*CBB(1u): UCF 1H PK @ Temple–6 PM CT

Temple went on a phantom run earlier in conference play but have clearly regressed down to who they are: a very mediocre basketball team. UCF has drawn the short end of the stick in several close games, but I power rate them far better than their 16-12 record would indicate. Most importantly, I like the dynamics of this matchup for the Knights.

Temple is an aggressive 3pt shooting team yet shoots just 33.7%(214th in CBB) from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Owls cough up nearly 13.5 turnovers per game and rank outside the Top 300 in this department. It just so happens that UCF’s strength defensively is defending the 3; the Knights rank 33rd in America allowing opponents to shoot just 31% from beyond the arc. Funny enough, those numbers actually improve on the road.

UCF’s offense is far from complete, but they do play to their strengths better than Temple. UCF is a very aggressive 3pt shooting team themselves, but unlike Temple, they shoot nearly 36.5% from beyond the arc. The Knights are also a Top 20 offensive rebounding team in America and should have some opportunities at second chance points given Temple’s mediocrity on the boards.

UCF has been prone to some slow starts this season, but they showed signs of positive regression building up an 18 point Halftime lead at Tulsa this past weekend. Temple is a good foul shooting team that could benefit from extending this game, so to avoid that scenario, I’ll isolate UCF in the 1H.

The Warriors are Home Dogs

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, head to Twitter and give me a follow @TrustRocco

Rutgers at Minnesota +8.5 (O/U 128) 7:00pm ET

The Scarlet Knights head to Minnesota Thursday night, looking to build momentum off their 19 point comeback this past Sunday at Penn St. The Knights are 4-1 ATS vs teams under .500 this year, they have shown their defense is far too superior for the lower level squads. One of those four wins was at home vs the Gophers, where they shot a season high 60% and made 37 field goals. As well as holding Minnesota to 36% shooting, in a 25 point dominant victory.

The Knight defense has held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 58 points or less, this does not bode well for a Gopher squad with some fake confidence shooting the ball right now. Having scored 66 points a game in their L5, facing Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn St and Iowa in the process. Five teams that rank at the bottom in many defensive categories.

The Golden Gophers are 4-10-1 ATS at home this season, as well as 0-4-1 as 5-9.5 point dogs. They have given up 80 points a game in their last 4, and if Rutgers can score in bunches tonight. Look out, it could get out of hand.

Rutgers -8.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit

Detroit Mercy at Youngstown St -9 (O/U 156.5) 8:00pm ET

I’m not sure how they can make this number high enough tonight, I see a points bonanza being scored here. YSU starts their quest Thursday night on a Horizon league Championship, a team that can surely make some noise at the dance.

They get to face Detroit Mercy who can also score in bunches, but are arguably one of the worst defensive teams in the country. YSU averages 19.1 assists per game at home, and has averaged 49% shooting this season. YSU comes off two games, where they gave up 79 points to IUPUI and 83 to Robert Morris.

I see an up and down the court, back and forth game here, which will put me on the over!

Over 156.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit

LA Clippers at Golden St +4 (O/U 231.5) 10:00pm ET

The Warriors are in unfamiliar territory, they’re HOME DOGS. As good as they have been in recent years, and their astute home records it hasn’t happened often. Steph Curry has been out now just a little north of two weeks, and life without him is starting to become normal, missing 151 games over the last 6 seasons due to various injuries. Without his presence, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS without him these past 2.5 weeks. Quietly their on a 3 game winning streak and have shown ability to play at both ends. Draymond Green coming back vs Portland surely helped, holding Portland to 105 points on 43% shooting. The GSW offense caught fire in the 2nd half, to overcome a 17 point deficit at halftime scoring 75 second half points!

The Warriors L5 games have shot 47%, 39% from downtown with 16.4 three pointers per contest. Luckily for them, the Clippers defense has been in shreds since the All-Star break. Giving up 52% shooting in their L5. Both these teams have put up a high assist rate of 27+ and 29+ a game as of recently. The question will be, who can play enough defense to slow the other one down? Well, Golden St still ranks very high defensively in shooting % against as well as 3pt%. At 45% shooting, and 32%(1st in the league) from beyond the arc. Yet the Clippers lead the league in 3pt%, something has to break.

As I mentioned, Golden State is an underdog, a role they are 4-0 ATS this season. The Chase Center has been good to them, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6, holding opponents to 107.6 points per game. Another trend I like, they’re 10-4-1 ATS off a win at home, as opposed to 3-12-1 ATS off a win on the road. So let’s take the Warriors at home tonight for a strong UNIT UPGRADE! 2-0 on unit upgrades of 2 or more this week.

Warriors +4 (Barstool -110) 2 units

Good luck to anyone if you’re tailing, let’s build!

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