We have a great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 joins us to talk about a big weekend of conference play college basketball!First, Kiev gets into a recap of his betting records for 2022. Kiev is 24-12-1 in college bowl season up 31U, 115-93-1 in NFL up 30U. Next, we talk about the College Football national championship with a FREE PLAY! Then, Kiev gets into the highly volatile NFL full slate of games with some more big plays and some more leans as well as his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-6-1 for the year. Next, Justin comes on to talk about some college basketball games and plays for the weekend. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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*CBB(1u): Maryland TT UNDER 63 @ Rutgers–5:30 PM CT
Rutgers is one of the easiest defenses to trust in all of CBB, and that’s especially true when they’re playing at home. The Scarlet Knights are allowing just 55.7 PPG on their home floor this year, including 57 to Wake Forest, 48 to Indiana, and 45 to Seton Hall. Maryland laid an egg in Ann Arbor the other day in a pitiful 46 point effort, but that has little to do with why I’m fading their offense here. Maryland is a team that struggles to hit the 3-ball(<31%) and holds a mere 1:1 assist/turnover ratio. We’ve seen them struggle when stepping up in competition this year, failing to surpass 60 vs Wisconsin, Tennessee, and UCLA. Additionally, they hold no edge on the glass against this staunch Rutgers frontcourt.
Neither of these teams are going to want to turn this into a track meet, so I’m a bit perplexed as to why this Maryland TT starts with a 6. The Terps are strong defensively which could keep them in this game, but I see them having little success offensively in this spot.
Back to back for both teams, and both teams have relied on their defense in tough spots all year. I have this at 222.
Taytum under 30.5 points (+100), to win 1 unit
Doncic over 52.5 PAR (-125), to win 1 unit
The Celtics are struggling a bit right now and their rotation is off because of RGIII returning. That doesn’t bode well for Tatyum’s rhythm against a Dallas’ defense that’s improving and I love Luka to always show out in spotlight games.
Rockets +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Rockets ML (+205), to win 1 unit
The Jazz may not be as interesting in winning for the second half of this season, we’ll see, but they’re a tired team back on the road and the Rockets are young, off 3 days rest, and these are the spots they can upset teams.
CBB (1-1, -0.1 units):
Maryland +5 (-110), to win 1 unit
MD/Rutgers under 131.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
The Terps are better on offense than they’ve shown and I think they positively regress tonight in another Big 10 contest. They can’t keep getting embarrassed in these big games and Rutgers, while they’ve been awesome defensively, is not a team that should be able to pull ahead easily like Michigan. Low scoring and the underdog.
Iowa State plays a staunch brand of defense, but this is an incredibly difficult road matchup. Oklahoma is DRAMATICALLY improved offensively from a year ago; they’re shooting over 50% from the floor and just under 40% from deep this season. The Sooners have come through on this end of the floor in even their toughest matchups to date(77 vs Seton Hall, 78 vs Arkansas).
The worst unit on the floor in this matchup(and it’s not close) is Iowa State’s offense. The Cyclones shoot a very mediocre 33.5% from deep and less than 70% from the foul line. The Cyclones do have some marquee wins this year(UNC, Baylor, Villanova), but none of those have come in true road matchups. Oklahoma is clearly the more balanced team, and ultimately, I can trust them to get points in multiple ways down the stretch of this game.
Iowa State will hang tough, but ultimately, I like Porter Mosier’s crew to pull away.
The Cardinals out-gained the Falcons 339 to 298 and lost 20-19. They won the turnover battle 1-0 but was bad in the red zone.
The Dolphins out-gained the Patriots 333 to 249 yet lost 23-21. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them.
The Saints and Eagles tied at 313 yards yet the Saints won 20-10. Equal turnover ratio but horrible filed position and time of possession killed the Birds.
The Vikings out-gained the Packers 346 to 315 yet lost 41-17. A 4-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams got the Queens.
The Raiders out-gained the 49ers 500 – 454 yet lost 37-34. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
I’m not mad about last night because, IMO, that was the right handicap, although we should watch and see just how motivated Utah is for the rest of the season. They might be less incentivized to win as the season goes on, hoping for better players in the draft.
On that note, I just feel much more comfortable with who these NBA teams are right now, so if I were you I’d start to express less caution in my plays. I know December was rough but things will and are turning around.
On another note, I’m going to start cherry picking CBB games to give you more plays and to diversify our bankroll risk on a daily basis. Can’t promise I’ll always have CBB plays but I’ll at least take a gander every day. My priority and expertise is still the NBA.
Onto hump day picks!
NBA:
Hawks ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Kings under 244 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe this moves more on the Kings’ side but I can’t predict this weird ass marketplace these days and it shouldn’t, I’ll tell ya that. This is an ideal spot for the Hawks to take care of business. The Kings are gonna be playing their 6th game in 8 days AND they’re on a back to back. That’s as bad as it gets. Atlanta needs to get right. Even on the road, this is the opportunity. Betting the under for the same reason we bet it today, and because the Kings’ will be even more tired. This is a Dejounte Murray game, aka more defense from Atlanta.
Ja Morant over 27.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Yea I don’t see ANY WAY that Charlotte can stop Ja. His style of play is not something the soft interior defense of Charlotte can contain, and he’ll need to do even more with the Grizzlies’ slew of injuries currently.
Knicks TT over 118.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m only playing this for 1 unit since I have the Knicks scoring 121 points in this, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe they can get even higher in this game. The Knicks are starting to focus more on offense again, and in their last battle against SAS a few games ago, they lost without Jalen Brunson. As usual, without Brunson their offense was clumsy and inefficient. This is a revenge spot, and SAS’s defense is among the worst in the NBA recently. In fact, they’re THE worst this season on the road. Opportunities abound for the Knicks to smash tonight.
Pacers TT under 111.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pacers have been running hard and looking very efficient on offense lately, but that was mostly against teams in turmoil (the Hawks) or good teams in really tough spots (LAC). Plus, anomalies tend to happen more often around the holidays. Now that thing’s have settled down, one of the NBA’s best defenses in the 76ers will host Indiana in an attempt to slow them down. I think they’ll be successful. Philadelphia is healthy, they run at a very slow pace, and this total is too high for a Pacers’ team that averages only 106 ppg against above average defenses (like Philly, Miami, Boston, LAC, etc.). One unit out of respect for their momentum.
CBB:
Villanova 1H -5 (-115), to win 1 unit
The Hoyas are really struggling this year and especially against Big East. A more talented, experienced Nova squad, fresh off a bad loss, will come into this extra motivated to pour it on Georgetown early. I think they cover, maybe by double-digits, early.
Belmont/UIC over 144 (-110), to win 1 unit
This total is too low. UIC is not a good shooting team but they’re at home and Belmont’s tempo and demanding offensive efficiency should push them to play aggressively on offense. They’ll need to if they want to compete. Belmont’s defense has been trash, allowing over 71 ppg. Like the over.
Both Saints and Panthers against each other might be a little flat after blowing their chances last week.
Get Up Spots:
Jets can play Spoiler to Miami making the playoffs.
Rams can play spoiler to the Seahawks playoff chances.
Browns can play spoiler to Pittsburgh Making the Playoffs.
Raiders can ruin the top 2 seed for the Chiefs (maybe)
Bears can solidify Vikings 3rd spot in the playoffs.
The Cardinals could cost the 49ers a seed.
The Lions can spoil the Packers if and only if Seattle wins.
Look Ahead Spots:
Vikings may not play starters next week vs Bears.
The Giants can’t improve or lose their 6 seed at all vs the Eagles.
The Cowboys can’t improve their 5 seed when the Eagles are blowing out the Giants at the half.
Tampa won’t play much starters vs the Falcons.
Ravens may not be motivated to beat the Bengals if they beat the Bills, but it is John Harbaugh so there’s that.
The Chargers can’t really improve their wildcard seed much vs the Broncos, but they can lose their nice 5 seed if the Ravens beat Cincinnati. Do they care and want to avoid Cinci or Buffalo in the 1st round?
The 2023 PGA Tour season is underway with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. By no means is this a major tournament but it is a big event. This invite-only event is reserved for players who have won a tournament on Tour since the previous year’s edition or received an exemption.
This year’s field features 39 players including seventeen of the top twenty in the Official World Golf Ranking. They’ve expanded the field from last year’s event to include several non-winners.
There are several storylines coming into this year’s event and it starts with Will Zalatoris who’s making his first start since withdrawing from the BMW Championship. He’ll also be making his debut here along with Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Ryan Brehm, Luke List, Trey Mullinax, Chad Ramey, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, and Adam Svensson.
Rory McIlroy, the current No. 1 golfer in the world is the lone invitee to have declined his invitation to this event. Scottie Scheffler, the current No. 2 player in the world is the highest-ranked player in this event. Jon Rahm who started off as the No. 1 golfer in the world last year, currently sits in 5th and is hoping for a rebound season after only winning the Mexico Open.
This is always a fun event to watch and features plenty of birdies with a gorgeous Hawaii backdrop. Now let’s break down the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions as we look to start the year off on a good note!
The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and was previously restricted to golfers who had won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year. However, this year will feature an increased field with several other top players earning exemptions.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.
This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format to not compete against the NFL schedule.
The 2023 edition will feature its largest prize pool ever and will increase the winner’s share to $2.7 Million from last year’s $1.476 Million. In addition to the major increase in money, the FedEx Cup Points offered have also jumped up to 550.
Jack Nicklaus holds the record for the most wins at this event with 5 (1963, 2964, 1971, 1973, and 1977).
72-Hole Record: 258, Cameron Smith (2022)
18-Hole Record: 61, J. Rahm (3rd Rd, ’22), J. Thomas (3rd Rd, ’22), M. Jones (4th Rd, ’22)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shores of Maui offering stunning views from most holes.
That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 when Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the winds did play more of a factor than what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around what we’re used to.
The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bomber’s paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.
The main defense of the course is the winds, as it sits on the coastline but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.
During the 2019/2020 renovation, the course underwent a complete renovation affecting every aspect of it. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were re-contoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, the past two winners have finished at -25 and -34.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 5 Scoring
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
39 Players will compete in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua this week. 17 of the world’s top 20 players will be in the field.
Jon Rahm (+650), has played twice on Tour this season finishing T4 at the CJ Cup and T8 at the Hero World Challenge. He’s also had success overseas recently winning the DP World Tour Championship and Spanish Open. Rahm has finished inside the top 10 in each of his five starts at Kapalua.
Scottie Scheffler (+900), is coming off a second-place finish at the Hero World Challenge. In his three other starts on Tour this year he’s finished T45, T3, and T9. This will be his second time here at Kapalua finishing T13 back in 2021.
Patrick Cantlay (+1000), has only played once since the TOUR Championship finishing T2 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s played in this event four times before placing T15, 4th, T13, and 4th.
Xander Schauffele (+1000), has had a great start to the season finishing inside the top 10 in both of his starts. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of his past four events including the two this year. Xander won this event back in 2019 and has since placed T2, T5, and 12th.
Justin Thomas (+1100), finished 5th at the Hero World Challenge in his last start on Tour. He’s won the Sentry Tournament of Champions twice before in 2017 and 2020.
Previous Winners in the field: Justin Thomas (’20, ’17), Xander Schauffele (’19), Jordan Spieth (’16)
Notable Withdraws: Rory McIlroy
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Sungjae Im: T5/ T8
Collin Morikawa: T7/ T7/ T5
Jon Rahm: 2/ T8/ 10/ T7/ 2
Justin Thomas: T21/ 1/ T22/ 3/ 1/ 3/ T5
Xander Schauffele: T22/ 1/ T2/ T5/ 12
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Mackenzie Hughes: T25/ T41
Viktor Hovland: T31/ T30
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
Price: 28-1
2021: Harris English (-25)
Price: 33-1
2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
Price: 11-2
2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
Price: 22-1
2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
Price: 15-2
Picks (Outrights):
Justin Thomas (+1100) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.73 to win 8.03 Units
Cameron Young (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Sungjae Im (+130) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Sungjae’s coming off a T8 finish at the Hero World Challenge gaining 1.80 strokes over the field. Im also has some great course history here finishing T5 and T8 in his two appearances at Kapalua. He gained strokes on approach in both of those events which is the one part of his game he has struggled with. He’s also been trending upward in that category gaining strokes on approach in two of his last three events. Sungaje struggled on the greens in his debut but managed to gain 0.71 strokes on the green in his second appearance. He fits this course extremely well and when you combine his recent form and course history, it’s hard to not think he’ll have success again here.
Collin Morikawa (+140) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Morikawa had a down year last season but has shown he’s back in action finishing T15 and 6th in his last two starts on Tour. He’s played well at Kapalua in this past with three top-10 finishes. His stellar ball-striking has allowed him to succeed here in the past and given his recent form, he should do well again this year.
Total Risk on Top 10s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sentry Tournament of Champions: 3.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Looks like our under bet is on track tonight– let’s see if the Jazz can catch up. Sacramento has to be tired. Early picks for Wednesday, below.
Hawks ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Kings under 244 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe this moves more on the Kings’ side but I can’t predict this weird ass marketplace these days and it shouldn’t, I’ll tell ya that. This is an ideal spot for the Hawks to take care of business. The Kings are gonna be playing their 6th game in 8 days AND they’re on a back to back. That’s as bad as it gets. Atlanta needs to get right. Even on the road, this is the opportunity. Betting the under for the same reason we bet it today, and because the Kings’ will be even more tired. This is a Dejounte Murray game, aka more defense from Atlanta.
Ja Morant over 27.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Yea I don’t see ANY WAY that Charlotte can stop Ja. His style of play is not something the soft interior defense of Charlotte can contain, and he’ll need to do even more with the Grizzlies’ slew of injuries currently.
We have a good yet somber show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev get’s into that terrible injury that we witnessed to Damar Hamlin and we are all saying prayers as we speak. Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 18! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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