No props today, but adding two more plays below. Love that we already got some CLV on the Nets’ game.
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Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Nuggets/Kings 1Q over 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets/Kings 1H over 121.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Nuggets offense started looking clunky and tired last night at Sacramento, and neither team really wanted to play defense. The Nuggets only had 31 points with 4 minutes left in the 2nd QTR, before they turned up the volume and started finally nailing some shots. Then we saw both offenses start to click in the second half. I love that rhythm to continue tonight. Both teams will continue to compete for “who’s the best offense” award and maybe some defense shows up in the second half, so we’ll go with the 1Q and 1H overs. Domantas Sabonis should return tonight, too, which is a major uptick for Sacramento’s offense.
The insanity continues– 23 points in the Knicks/Dallas game in the final minute to kill our under play, and the Grizz don’t show up at home against an injured rival.
What can ya do! Onto the next:
Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Probably more plays coming but get these two in now!
This should be a fun game to watch as Big East conference play kicks off. Boh temas play pretty fast pace basketball with Seton Hall ranking 79th in average possession length to Marquette ranking 15th! So why the low total then? Well, Marquette has a decent defense ranking 62nd in efficiency while Seton Hall ranks 20th on defense. The big thing for me is that when Seton Hall stepped up in class, they have allowed 77 points to Oklahoma, 72 to Xavier, 91 to Kansas, and 71 to providence. The only games they performed ok in were neutral sites allowing 68 to Memphis and shutting Rutgers down away when the Scarlet Knights were injured. I think that Seton Halls defense is fake news, and this game plays fast enough to hit the over, but I do not trust Seton Hall’s scoring as much as the Golden Eagles. Take the team total here.
Let’s end this CFB season in the motherfuckin black!
CFB Bowl Game Picks (50-45-7, -1.25 units):
Oklahoma St/Wisconsin under 45 (-110), to win 1 unit
Without Spencer Sanders, the OK State offense takes a huge hit. Against an offense that’s not prolific in any sense, I expect the Cowboys to play ball control, run the ball, and attempt to play keep-away from the Badgers. And that’s all Wisconsin does is play conservative, keep-away football. Checks out as a slower paced, low-scoring affair.
Maryland ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
In games where competition is relatively even, the Terps have played really well this year. NC State is in a state of flux right now, while this game probably means more to a MD team that has way more explosive potential on offense, particularly through their passing game. If the Wolfpack show up lifeless at all, and I think they might, Maryland can take advantage and then it’ll be tough for NC State to catch up. Go Terps!
UCLA -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I don’t necessarily trust my numbers all the time, especially not in college football, but the UCLA Bruins are considerably more talented than Pitt, in my opinion. This should be a 7-8 point spread, especially since it looks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing. Pitt could take advantage of UCLA’s lackluster pass defense, but then again can they? Probably not, since there’s nothing exceptional about their own passing attack. With several key defensive players missing, I love the Bruins to take home this prize with ease.
Notre Dame -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen the Irish grow and grow into a formidable outfit this season, on both sides of the ball, while the ol’ Gamecocks are sort of this pedestrian, middle of the road SEC team who can take advantage of teams in a letdown spot. This is no such spot for the Irish. I think this game and this season means a lot to Marcus Freeman and the growth of their team, while SC probably isn’t as excited or motivated, especially they sort of already won their championship by beating two top teams in the SEC to finish their season. The Irish cover.
Alabama -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bryce Young and his supporting cast are suiting up for one final time, for the pride of their program, and I think that’s “all she wrote” for this contest. Kansas State is talented on both sides of the ball but this is shaping up to be a Bama-statement-game and I’d rather not be on the other side of that just to try and feel sharp. Not overthinking it– Bama wins easy.
Michigan -7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Wolverines might be the best team in the country and I don’t expect their elevated level of play to come to a halt in the final two games of their season. Now that Michigan’s offense has explosive potential, the talent disparity and opportunities for Michigan to pull ahead should be too much for a Cinderella team like TCU to overcome.
Georgia -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I said long before the Ohio State-Michigan game that I’m unimpressed by the Buckeyes and that remains true. Georgia has been able to assert themselves in the most impressive way all season when they’re in a big game and this is the definition of that, since Ohio State-Georgia is what many had to be the final game of the CFB season. Ohio State’s all-world speed and talent still isn’t consistent enough and I’m not a CJ Stroud believer. I am a believer in Stetson Bennett, who’s been with the Bulldogs since 2019, and a defense that proved it’s as close to an NFL unit as any unit in CFB this season Ohio State disappoints, again, and Georgia remains undefeated.
Purdue +15 (-110), to win 1 unit
Purdue had a great finish to their season before a predictable loss to Michigan at the end, but this is a team that can hang in games and hurt you with a dynamic passing attack. Brian Kelly is a great shit-the-bed coach, I’ve seen it plenty before in his stint with the Irish, and 15 points is way too many in a game that might mean a lot more to the Boilermakers.
USC -2 (-110), to win 2 units
All I needed to see was that Caleb Williams expects to play, and the value is with USC. I’m sure this game with be closer than we expect, but USC’s potent passing attack and while the Green Wave has its own degree of potency on offense, I don’t think they’ll have the talent to score at will like the Trojans should be able to in this matchup. Tulane’s sack-rate is what really concerns me (100th in the country), which will give Williams plenty of time to slice and dice their sub-optimal secondary. USC or nothing for me.
Sorry all – busy busy with the holidays, had to bring back my son this morning, you know how it is. Things will feel more normal starting tomorrow. Shorter write ups today so I can just get these out.
Like a few plays today:
Raptors TT over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Clippers are on a back to back and Kawhi will be back tonight– which is just as much a good thing for their offense as it is for their defense. Toronto seems to have found their groove and they’ve lost a few games in a row at home. This is a great spot, off 4 days rest, for them to take advantage and attack a tired Clippers’ defense. Toronto stays at home all week– great spot for them to show off a renewed attack with a much, MUCH healthier roster.
Grizzlies -8 (-110), to win 2 units
All of the most important perimeter scorers for Phoenix are out tonight (Booker, Payne, Shamet, Johnson) and this game sets up fantastically well for the Grizzlies, at home, after a tough defeat against the Warriors on Christmas. This is a nice revenge spot after that bad loss, and they’re as healthy as they’ve been all season. Go Grizz!
Knicks/Mavs under 219 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Knicks and Mavs are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA right now over their last 5 games and Dallas, without some key offensive contributors, is winning games by limiting second-chance opportunities for other offenses and playing methodical, technically sound basketball. Brunson also has a quad injury, which is the single biggest threat to a Knicks’ high scoring night. If he’s out or even if he’s in because he won’t be 100%, we love that for more defense, less pace and less points. Going under.
Might be best to focus on dome teams this late in the year.
Key Injuries:
TE Hunter Henry is day to day.
TE Jonnu Smith with a concussion might miss next week.
QB Mike White is cleared for contact this week.
WR Christian Watson has a hip injury.
TE Greg Dulcich was ruled out with a hammy.
QB Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions with a shoulder is questionable.
Waiver Wire:
TE Eric Saubert for the Dulcich injury could be a streamer.
WR Romeo Doubs for the Watson injury is big.
WR Randall Cobb might play a big part this week vs the Vikings.
TE Tyler Higbee was massive last week and only owned in 65% of leagues.
WR Kendrick Bourne had 9 targets, a TD and 29 rushing yards.
TE Shane Zylstra from Detroit had 3 touchdowns.
WR Isaiah Hodgins had 11 targets and a TD for the Giants.
WR Greg Dortch had 11 targets and 3 rushes for the Cardinals.
QB Teddy Bridgewater for the Tua injury.
Non Starters trending up for Week 17
RB JK Dobbins vs the Steelers could be big this week.
RB Jamycal Hasty for Jacksonville is huge vs the Texans. Jacksonville could rest their guys potentially. They could win this game, lose vs the Titans and still not make wild card.
RB Cam Akers vs the Chargers could be big this week.
RB David Montgomery vs the Lions is big.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions is good.
QB Jared Goff vs the Bears D is great.
TE Shane Zylstra vs the Bears is solid.
RB Jamaal Williams vs the Bears is huge.
QB Mike White vs the Seahawks D.
WR Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears is gold.
WR Romeo Doubs vs the Vikings.
WR KJ Osborn vs the Packers is good.
QB Baker Mayfield vs the Chargers is huge.
Busts:
QB Kirk Cousins vs the Packers is dangerous here.
QB Geno Smith vs the Jets might be rough.
RB Derek Henry vs the Cowboys could bust.
RB Miles Sanders vs the Saints isn’t looking great.
RB Josh Jacobs vs San Francisco isn’t looking good.
RB Kareem Hunt vs Washington isn’t looking good.
RB Nick Chubb vs Washington is also bad.
Nasty Sleeper: Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears D! His Brother plays for the Bears.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev get’s into a schedule change coming for College basketball 2023! Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Next, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 17! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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I’m off to a 3-2, +1.35u start in Bowl Season! I’m rolling with 4 plays up until December 29th and will be back in a few days with the rest of my bowl plays through January 2nd.
*CFB(1u): Coastal Carolina/East Carolina OVER 64–12/27 5:45 PM CT
This matchup features two below average secondaries, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage.
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall will play in this game before finding a new home at the Power 5 level. Quite frankly, I think the world of McCall. He features a 12:1 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for over 9 Y/A here in 2022. Coastal Carolina is traditionally a spread option offense, but with HC Jamie Chadwell off to Liberty, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Chants lean more towards the pass in their season finale. That would be the smart move in this matchup given ECU’s clear strength defensively is going up against the run while they have allowed over 8 Y/A through the air on 9 separate occasions this year.
East Carolina’s offense will succeed in this game because they are centered around star RB Keaton Mitchell. The Sophomore ran for over 1300 yards this year at nearly 7.5 YPC and shined even in his more difficult matchups. The Chants have been mostly good against the run by Sun Belt standards, but they’ve also been inconsistent enough to where I have little faith they will halt the Pirates on the ground. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is far from a world beater(7.9 Y/A), but he does boast a 23:5 TD/INT ratio and is certainly capable of taking advantage of this weak Chants secondary.
I don’t expect either QB to be under much duress, and I expect each to connect on explosive plays rather easily in this matchup. This game gets played in the upper 60’s at least.
*CFB(1u): Kansas/Arkansas OVER 69–12/28 4:30 PM CT
I typically wouldn’t be willing to play an Over at this number when one team’s objective(Kansas) will be to slow this game to a standstill. However, the defensive issues on each side are that extreme, and each offense is well equipped to take advantage.
Kansas has a very repeatable path to success offensively. This OL has allowed just 8 sacks all season and have paved the way for RB Devin Neal to run for over 6 YPC this season. QB’s Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean were both throwing for over 9 Y/A late in the season before Daniels struggled upon his return from injury; with a full month to prepare, I expect Daniels to look quite sharp against this Razorbacks defense. Arkansas had its top two LB’s opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and their Back 7 struggled tremendously all season. They allowed over 500 yards on the ground to Ole Miss late in the year and really just have a lack of quality talent in their secondary. Kansas might run slow, but this is still an offense that put up 35 or more on 5 seperate Power 5 opponents this year; there’s a reason the Jayhawks rank 9th in yards/play.
With KJ Jefferson healthy, I LOVE this Razorbacks offense. RB Rocket Sanders ran for over 1400 yards this year at 6.5 YPC, and Jefferson is a true dual-threat QB(8.7 Y/A through the air, over 500 yards on the ground). The Razorbacks might be thin at WR at the moment, but I don’t expect it to matter going up against a truly terrible Kansas defense. The Jayhawks allowed 47 PPG over their last 3 games and, like Arkansas, feature a Back 7 that is vulnerable against the run and pass. Unlike Kansas, Arkansas will run with a good amount of pace in this matchup.
I struggle to see a path to stops for either one of these defenses, and each of these offenses are equipped to take advantage. Over is the play.
*CFB(1u): Oregon TT OVER 44 vs North Carolina–12/28 7 PM CT
Oregon’s offense vs North Carolina’s defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch we’ll see this bowl season.
Oregon will win at the line of scrimmage at an elite rate in this matchup; the Ducks have allowed just 4 sacks all season, while UNC’s biggest struggle defensively has been their inability to get pressure on the QB. Along with that, UNC’s secondary is utterly atrocious. Over their last 3 games, UNC has been beaten by Georgia Tech’s 3rd string QB, NC State’s 4th string QB, and Clemson’s freshman QB with zero experience. Bo Nix is a true dual threat(8.9 Y/A as a passer, 6 YPC as a runner) that will absolutely feast in this matchup. Give UNC credit for improving against the run over the course of the season, but with 3 separate 6 YPC guys to defend(including Nix), I have a hard time seeing the Ducks get held down on the ground. Pace will be on our side here as both teams like to use tempo to their advantage.
I would lean heavily towards Oregon -14.5 as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I feel best about and not worry about a potential one-man effort from UNC QB Drake Maye. The Ducks have been one of the most consistent and explosive offenses in the country all year; I see no reason why that stops against this pungent UNC defense.
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -10 vs Syracuse–12/29 1 PM CT
I’ve loved backing this Minnesota team all year, particularly when they’re expected to win by margin against a clearly inferior opponent. We all know the Gophers have a Top 10 defense in the country that is particularly staunch against the run, but this offense is significantly undervalued as well.
Veteran QB Tanner Morgan has flirted with returning from injury to play this game, but I’m comfortable laying 10 with the Gophers if Athan Kaliakmanis is needed again. Both QB’s are at or over 8.5 Y/A on the season, and the Gophers are able to run the ball against anybody with their physical front and bellcow RB Mo Ibrahim. Syracuse is without their Top 2 cover corners for this game, taking away from what was previously the strength of this defense. Their Front 7 has not stepped up well against physical fronts and effective run games like Minnesota will feature(think Notre Dame and Florida State).
Syracuse will be without arguably their most talented player in RB Sean Tucker. Tucker didn’t have the year we expected due to having to run behind a pretty weak OL; with him not available, I think Minnesota will be rather dominant going up against the run. Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was a huge surprise this season(8.7 Y/A), but I do think his overall numbers are misleading. He padded his stats with great games against UCONN, Wagner, Boston College, and Wake Forest, but he also proved to be ineffective against Purdue, Notre Dame, and Florida State. Minnesota’s secondary is good but not great, but with the other stark advantages they hold on this side of the ball, I think it’ll be more than enough.
Don’t have ANY time this morning so please forgive the brevity of this message. Here are two plays I like today:
Nets/Cavs over 221 (-110), to win 2 units
The Nets have been unstoppable offensively as of late, and the Cavs will look to avenge themselves after a tough loss against a lengthy Raptors team where they only scored just over 100 points. Love the over.
Pacers/Pels over 234.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
When the Pels face high octane, small lineups that are defensively challenged, that usually results in a TON of points. No Herb Jones helps limit the Pelicans’ defense. Zion’s absence also opens up the lane for Indiana’s aggressive point guards. I have this at 242.
What gives with these Bears? They get massively classed and out-gained, and somehow cover last week vs a one loss Eagles team. The Bills on the other hand need themselves a slump buster. A team to pick on, and no better candidate right now than the Chicago Bears. People keep forgetting how this Bills team is very capable of getting margin like they did against The LA Rams, Green Bay and New England. Now the team in football plays the second worst team in the NFL and is less than a double digit favorite. Buffalo has a 1.1 net yards per play advantage over the Bears and that is counting when the Bears were actually healthy. As of last week, Chicago finally lost their best player on defense in Jack Sanborn. This won’t bode well vs the Bills. The Bears are a top four team in sacks allowed while the Bills are top ten in pressure rate. Buffalo is number three in offensive EPA and number two in opponent yards per point. Chicago is number 17th in offensive EPA and 30th in opponent yards per point. The Bills are fighting with the Chiefs for the number one seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Bears are fighting for a good draft.
Bills -8 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs New England -3.5 O/U 41.5
It’s gonna be cold and windy in New England like most of the country, so points will come as a premium, Anyone with a brain knows that the Raiders were gifted that win last week vs the Pats. The important thing here is that the Patriots cannot afford to drop a game, while the Bengals are sitting pretty right now in 1st place in the AFC North. Believe it or not, The Patriots have a .2 net yards per play advantage over the tigers. The Patriots have a very good defense ranking number two in EPA while the Bengals rank about 8th. My number actually has this a -2 point favorite for the Bengals and they were saved last week due to pure Buccaneer incompetence allowing them back in that game with four late turnovers. New England was embarrassed last week and this is the get up spot of all get up spots in football. Lastly, Mac Jones is compared to Joe Burrow both coming just one year apart from rival schools in the SEC. I think Jones needs to prove something today. I would rather back the dog fighting for his life over the one fighting for a better meal.
Patriots +3.5 -120 – 2 stars
Teaser: 49ers to -.5 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
