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December 30th-31st CFB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I’m off to a 5-3, +2.25u start in Bowl Season! I’ve locked in 5 more plays from the 30th-31st, including a play on each CFP Semifinal. I’ll be back with my January 2nd plays at a later date.

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College Football Playoff

*CFB(1u): Michigan -7.5 vs TCU–12/31 3 PM CT

TCU had a cinderella run in Year 1 of the Sonny Dykes era and had multiple second half comebacks along the way, but I don’t think they’re ready for this sort of matchup on either side of the ball.

TCU’s offense is very explosive, but it’s not overly consistent. QB Max Duggan has thrived in the deep passing game this season, but he worsens significantly in the short-to-intermediate passing game. This is simply TCU’s style and a big reason why they’re here, but it also means I don’t see them consistently sustaining drives against an elite Michigan defense. This Wolverines secondary held both CJ Stroud and Sean Clifford in check, and I think they’ll hold up well here. It seems like TCU RB Kendre Miller has a 50+ yard run each week, but that can somewhat mislead you as to his level of consistency. The TCU OL has been shaky in Big12 play and will now face a major step up in competition; I expect Michigan to win up front and contain the Horned Frogs rushing attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if TCU starts fast and hits on some explosives, but when it comes down to sustaining drives against an elite defense, I think that’s where TCU ends up faltering.

Michigan is a run-first offense that isn’t overly sexy, but it’s not hard to see why they’re undefeated. This Wolverines OL is good at protecting QB JJ McCarthy, and they’ve paved the way for multiple 6+ YPC rushers. Donovan Edwards is an incredibly effective back(7.5 YPC) that will carry the majority of the load in this game. We saw TCU step up big time vs Bijan Robinson(Texas), but that seems to have been a one-off. The TCU secondary has also had some slip-ups; Will Howard threw for 11.3 Y/A against this unit earlier in the year, and Baylor QB Blake Shapen threw for 9 Y/A on the Frogs. JJ McCarthy has not been given the full reigns to the offense, but he takes care of the football(3 INT’s) and is plenty capable of taking advantage of a leaky secondary.

I expect TCU to come out strong and put up a good fight, but Michigan’s style is far more sustainable over the course of a 60 minute game. Wolverines pull away in the 2nd Half and win this by double digits.

*CFB(1u): Ohio State +6.5 vs Georgia–12/31 7 PM CT

I have backed Georgia in their bigger matchups all season and think the world of what Kirby Smart has built in Athens. But as I handicap this matchup, I think Ohio State can go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs. This is not as much me looking to fade Georgia, but I do think the Buckeyes are being a bit overlooked after their horrific loss to Michigan.

I have sung the praises of Stetson Bennett all season and think he’s a far better QB than given credit for. Still, there’s little doubt in my mind that CJ Stroud is the better QB in this matchup. I also think Ohio State is slightly better at RB than Georgia; the Bulldogs’ run game is my main knit pick of the offense. Lastly, the Buckeyes convert red zone chances to TD’s at an elite 75% rate, while Georgia has settled for 21 red zone FG’s this season.

Ohio State clearly can’t afford to have as many breakdowns in their Back 7 defensively as they had against Michigan; if they do, we can throw this ticket in the trash. With that said, this is still a defense that is far improved from a year ago and especially stout in their Front 7. I still think Georgia’s defense is probably the best in the land, but they did just allow 500 yards through the air to LSU. You can’t overadjust from what you saw from one game on one given day; that principle applies to both defenses. But, I do think Georgia’s performance in the SEC Title shows they are not unbeatable through the air.

Quite honestly, I think this will be an epic back-and-forth game and an instant classic that comes down to the finish. There’s a reason that this number has not budged and moved to 7 despite everybody and their mother unloading on UGA. I think the Buckeyes keep it within the number.

Other Plays(Dec 30th-31st)

*CFB(1u): Notre Dame -3 vs South Carolina–12/30 2:30 PM CT

Notre Dame had a few premier players opt out for this game(DE Isaiah Foskey, TE Michael Mayer), but actually, South Carolina fared far worse in that department. The Gamecocks will be without their top 2 CB’s, a starting OL, their top 2 TE’s, their RB1, and two other defensive starters. In addition, I believe this line is overly reactionary to South Carolina’s strong finish to the season and neglects multiple red flags we saw consistently over the course of the year.

Without MarShawn Lloyd at RB, the Gamecocks looked mostly inept offensively this year; no other RB eclipsed 4 YPC this season. Spencer Rattler’s 7.9 Y/A is, let’s be frank, relatively unimpressive. Even with Foskey out, I think the Irish are a very complete defense from front-to-back. They will beat South Carolina up front and dominate against the run, forcing Rattler to beat them consistently with his arm. People will love to talk about South Carolina’s offensive success against Tennessee and Clemson, but let’s not forget, they also put up 6 points vs Florida, 10 points vs Missouri, and less than 300 total yards vs Texas A&M.

Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne entered the portal just in time for original starter Tyler Buchner to return from injury. I don’t view this as a huge loss for Notre Dame and think these guys are interchangeable; there’s probably a reason Buchner won the job over Pyne to begin with. The passing game will take a hit with Michael Mayer opting out, but they will gain all of that back with their ability to run the football. Audric Estime emerged as a difference making back for the Irish throughout the season(5.8 YPC, 11 TD’s), and South Carolina’s weakness defensively is stopping the run. This year, the Gamecocks allowed 295 yards rushing to Arkansas, 226 yards rushing to Vanderbilt, and 375 yards rushing to Florida. While their secondary had been the strength all season, I have my doubts that will continue with the attrition at CB.

I love this matchup for Notre Dame at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and think we’re getting a discounted line after everybody saw South Carolina win on a national stage late in the season. I’ve had a lot of success backing the Irish in these sorts of spots this year, and I’ll trust them once again.

*CFB(1u): Clemson/Tennessee OVER 63.5–12/30 7 PM CT

Tennessee has a style of play that they live and die by. Even without Hendon Hooker, this is an offense that’s going to run at a manically fast pace and use tempo in the run game to catch a defense sleeping in the vertical passing game. Defensively, their secondary has proven to be quite atrocious(see Florida and South Carolina games); in turn, they live by a “boom-or-bust” nature and sell out to pressure the QB. Is Tennessee at full strength offensively? No. Do I think that changes much? Also no.

Tennessee QB Joe Milton is not your typical backup. He might have one of the strongest arms in the country, and he has proven to be quite underrated when he gets his chances(8.5 career Y/A). This season, he has thrown for over 13 Y/A and just led the Vols to a 56-0 win over Vanderbilt. Clemson is still pretty good against the run, but we have seen them struggle in their secondary on multiples occasions(South Carolina and Wake Forest). They also have two starters in their Front 7 opt out for this game, so I’m not conceding Tennessee won’t be able to establish the run. Did I mention the pace that Tennessee runs at?

Cade Klubnik is a clear upgrade at QB over DJ Uiagalelei; we saw Klubnik expose UNC’s secondary in the ACC title game, and he draws a similar matchup here. I do think Tennessee will force Klubnik into some mistakes and hit on some of their all-out blitz packages, but over the course of a 60 minute game, I also think Cade Klubnik will have no problem hitting on explosive plays. Ultimately, I think the freshman tosses 4-5 TD’s alone. Clemson RB Will Shipley is a good back, but Tennessee has been pretty stout against the run; this area of the matchup is a stalemate.

Both of these secondaries will be vulnerable in this particular matchup, and the sheer pace should push this over the total. I would’ve made this 66.5.

*CFB(1u): Iowa/Kentucky UNDER 31–12/31 11 AM CT

I played the Iowa/Minnesota UNDER 32.5 late in the season and cashed, so I’m no stranger to playing these low totals. While this a historically low total, this checks every single box I look for when playing an Under.

After Will Levis opted out and Iowa had to settle on their 3rd stringer, these starting QB’s have combined for ZERO attempts over their career(s). Iowa has a borderline elite secondary and top 5 defense as a whole, while Kentucky’s strength defensively is limiting explosive plays through the air. Kentucky lost their top 2 RB’s to opt out and have consistently got manhandled up front all season; the same can be said about Iowa unless they’re playing Northwestern. Both teams have a <55% red zone TD% on the season, and to top it all off, both run at a snails pace offensively. 

Where is the path to points here? This total is historically low, but I’d argue it’s not low enough.

NFL Week 17 betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:

  • The Cowboys could be a little flat at the Titans after beating the Eagles.
  • The Browns at Washington after being eliminated from the playoffs is tough.
  • Any team out of the playoffs that is not playing spoiler.
  • The Jaguars have less reason to win vs Houston if the Titans lose to Dallas this week.  Jacksonville could rest their guys potentially.   They could win this game, lose vs the Titans and still not make wild card.
  • The Titans might take the L on Thursday vs the Cowboys to rest for the Jags

Get Up Spots:

  • Teams that can play spoiler in their division.
    Those teams are Chicago at Detroit and Houston vs Jacksonville and Denver at Kansas City.
  • Teams trying to make the playoffs.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Jags could be looking past the Texans to the Titans.
  • The Titans could be looking past the Cowboys to the Jags.
  • The 49ers could be looking past everyone to the playoffs.

 

NFL Week 16 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
  • The Seahawks out-gained the Chiefs 333 to 297 yet lost 24-10.  A 1-0 turnover ratio, bad coaching and bad red zone efficiency hurt the Seaquacks.
  • The Giants out-gained the Vikings 445 to 353 yet lost 27-24.  A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.
  • The Eagles out-gained the Cowboys 442 to 419 yet lost 40-34.  A Nasty 4-1 turnover ratio did the Eagles in.

December 29th CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

A 1-2 night in CBB drops me to 33-26-1 on the season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong!

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*CBB(0.5u): Brown TT UNDER 57 @ Northwestern–12 PM CT

I’m willing to trust Northwestern’s defense against dang near anybody; I power rate this as a Top 10 defense in the country. The Wildcats are a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America and will force Brown to make tough, contested shots to surpass this number. On the year, Brown is shooting less than 43% from the field, less than 33% from beyond the arc, and a pitiful 57% from the FT line. The Bears have played just 1 Power 5 opponent this year, and they were held to 50 at Michigan State.

Northwestern will slow the pace of this game down considerably and hold Brown to an inefficient day.

*CBB(0.5u): Georgetown/DePaul OVER 153.5–7 PM CT

It’s pretty clear that Georgetown’s defense is one you’re going to want to fade. The Hoyas have allowed 80 or more on five separate occasions already this year, including in each of their last 3 games. DePaul is very aggressive at shooting the 3 ball and do so plenty competent enough(35.5%) to have success in this matchup. Georgetown also ranks just 251st in defensive rebounding %, meaning there should be plenty of second chance opportunities for the Blue Demons.

This is a matchup where I have no issue trusting Georgetown’s offense. When you’re allowing 83 to Northwestern, 89 to Samford, and 82 to Oklahoma State like DePaul has, you’re simply not a very good defense. The Blue Demons one-up Georgetown by ranking an even-worse 309th in defensive rebounding % and will be at a severe size mismatch down low. 

Each team likes to use tempo to their advantage, and each defense is poor on the glass. Ultimately, both of these teams’ prowess from the FT line(DePaul shoots nearly 80%) is enough to get me on this Over.

*CBB(0.5u): Cincinnati 1H -2.5 vs Tulane–8 PM CT

Cincinnati will hold a massive advantage down low in this matchup. Tulane ranks a laughable 358th in offensive rebounding %, meaning the Green Wave will need borderline elite shotmaking to hang in this game. However, Cincinnati holds an edge in both FG% and 3ptFG% despite playing a FAR tougher schedule up to this point. Tulane’s defense is pretty clearly the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, so I think the Bearcats have a far more sustainable path to points here.

Why 1H vs full game? Tulane shoots a staggering 80% from the FT line, while Cincinnati lags far behind shooting under 70%. That is far too big of a discrepancy to trust Cincinnati late in this game. 

NBA Leans, 12.29

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Well, as you can imagine, it’s hard to want to put out any bets in the NBA anymore. In case you missed it:

  • The Bucks gave up a double digit lead with 3 min left, didn’t cover
  • The NBA’s hottest team, the Nets, were down for 97% of their contest against ATL’s B squad and only mustered a 1 point win over the Hawks, didn’t cover
Our other two bets hit, but for just 2 units.
Contemplating a lot of things, including a complete switch over to NCAAB and/or limiting my exposure to the NBA altogether for a full season. I’m not an addict or sadist for torture, so everything is on the table. TBD for now.
Need a break from the BS, so here are my leans today:
  • Cavs -5
  • OKC/CHA over 241.5
  • Raptors +3
  • Clippers +6

Podcast 92 – 22 – College Football Playoffs and Bowls – NFL Week 17 Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

Happy New Year everyone!  Kiev O’Neil is going solo to cover the rest of the bowl games with some NFL week 17!  First, Kiev gets into a big teaser that he used to get out of a few plays.  Next, we talk college bowl games December 30th to January 2nd with some leans and some plays.  Then, Kiev gets into the NFL full slate of games with some more plays and some more leans.    Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend!  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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December 28th CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

I bring a 32-24-1 CBB record into tonight and am rolling with 3 plays looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(0.5u): Fordham PK vs Davidson–6 PM CT

Davidson is not the same sharp-shooting team we have become accustomed to over the years; they shoot just 45.5% from the floor and 34.5% from beyond the arc. That’s fine, but I don’t believe it will be another to overcome what’s going to be a massive disadvantage down low. Fordham is a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America, while Davidson is 336th in offensive rebounding %. Similarly, Davidson blocks just 1.7 shots/game compared to Fordham’s 5.8.

Fordham can be sloppy with the basketball, and I’ll concede that they played a very easy non-conference schedule. With that said, the Rams’ advantage at the free-throw line combined with the mismatch they have down low should give Fordham the home W in this one.

*CBB(0.5u): Kentucky -3 @ Missouri–6 PM CT

Missouri has played 2 Tournament caliber teams all season; while they blew Illinois out last week, they lost by 28 to Kansas at home a few Saturdays ago. The Tigers run at a maniacally fast pace and have shot the lights out up to this point in the season. However, I think Kentucky is equipped to hold their own on this end of the floor. John Calipari’s squad has been tuned up by having to play Gonzaga, Michigan, and UCLA already, and this is a Wildcats team that I expect to be led by their defense throughout the course of the season.

I think Kentucky will score at will in this matchup. This is a Missouri defense that allowed 95 to Kansas and 75 to lowly Wichita State, making them FAR AND AWAY the worst unit on the floor tonight. Kentucky is shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year, and they will hold a major edge on the boards; Kentucky ranks 6th in offensive rebounding %, while Missouri ranks 335th in defensive rebounding %.

Missouri’s path to stay in this game is elite shotmaking, something I don’t think is overly sustainable as they step up in competition. Wildcats pull away and win this one comfortably.

*CBB(0.5u): Baylor 1H -12 vs Nicholls–7 PM CT

After a fast start to begin the season, Baylor has not been up to snuff in recent weeks. Last we saw of the Bears, they won by just 10 against lowly Northwestern State and put up just 58 against one of the worst defenses in the country. With that said, I expect a solid effort from the Bears early in this game after having over a week off.

Nicholls State has actually put up a good fight against the likes of Texas Tech and Mississippi State recently, but their style of play leaves them vulnerable to getting schelacked in these sort of matchups. The Colonels are below average on both ends of the floor, yet they run at one of the fastest paces in the country; it’s no surprise Arizona put up 117 against them. Baylor is going to match Nicholls’ pace but pair it with far better efficiency on both ends of the floor. This game will be over by Halftime.

College Football 2022 Bowls December 30th – January 2nd – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Nov 23, 2019; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players during warmups before the start of their game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Friday, Dec. 30

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: N.C. State vs. Maryland -1 O/U 48

Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, N.C.

  • Maryland:  Motivation – Medium – They should want to give it a go.
  • North Carolina State:  Motivation – Medium Low – Why not give it a go being so close to home but they were not rewarded much having to stay in state.   The preseason expectations were so high on the Wolfpack.
  • Home Field:  NC State only 165 miles away.
  • Dave Doeren, North Carolina State – 5-2
  • Mike Locksley, Maryland – 1-0
  • SOS about equal with Maryland at 49 and NC State at 53.
  • Maryland has a .98 yards per play advantage here.
  • Maryland
    • WR Dontay Demus Jr. (Opt-out)
    • WR Jacob Copeland (Opt-out)
  • NC State
    • QB Devin Leary (Transfer portal)
    • QB M.J. Morris (Injury)
    • RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (Injury)
    • WR Devin Carter (Transfer portal)
  • NC State has the better defense here, but Maryland is the better team as a whole.
  • Maryland will be without two of their best three receivers.
  • I think Maryland will be motivated for Tauli Tagovailoa who could return next year.
  • I have Maryland power rated 3.75 points better than NC State.   Gonna at least lean the Terps here and I probably will eventually take them.

Maryland -1 – 2 stars

Sun Bowl: Pitt vs. UCLA -5.5 O/U 53.5

Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: CBS

Location: Sun Bowl — El Paso, Texas

  • Pitt:  Motivation – Medium  – Kedon Slovis entered the transfer portal but Nate Yarnell looked pretty good.
  • UCLA:  Motivation – Medium – Last chance to show off to the NFL for DTR.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh – 1-4
  • Chip Kelly, UCLA – 2-2
  • Pittsburgh
    • QB Kedon Slovis (Transfer portal)
    • QB Nick Patti (Injury) but might play
    • DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
    • DE Nate Temple (Injury)
    • DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
    • EDGE John Morgan III (Transfer portal)
    • EDGE Sam Williams (Transfer portal)
    • EDGE Deslin Alexandre (Opt-out)
    • EDGE Habakkuk Baldonado (Injury)
    • LB SirVocea Dennis (Opt-out)
    • S Brandon Hill (Opt-out)
    • S Judson Tallandier II (Transfer portal)
  • Surprisingly, not a lot of opt outs as of yet, but this line crashed down as UCLA was at least a 6 point favorite.
  • SOS is about equal with 63 for Pitt and 58 for UCLA
  • UCLA has a .37 yards per play advantage over Pitt.
  • This bowl should be a fun matchup of offense vs defense here, and Pittsburgh has an amazing pass rush ranking 4th in sack margin that could fluster DTR.
  • I only have UCLA -1.5 on the power rating, but does the stop down from Slovis to Patti or Yarnell warrant a move past the three?  I like how Pitt finished their season here, but the recent added opt outs to more defensive players hurts Pitt.
  • Lean Pitt +5.5

Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame -2.5 O/U 51.5

Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, Fla.

  • South Carolina: Motivation – Medium High – Bad start yet they made a bowl game which is huge.
  • Notre Dame:  Motivation – Medium Low – Their QB Drew Pine is transferring and Notre Dame wanted something bigger in my opinion.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame – 0-1
  • Shane Beamer, South Carolina – 1-0
  • Notre Dame
    • QB Drew Pyne (Transfer portal)
    • QB Tyler Buchner (Injury)
    • TE Michael Mayer (Opt-out)
    • DL Jacob Lacey (Transfer portal)
    • DE Isaiah Foskey (Opt-out)
    • DE Ositadinma Ekwonu (Transfer portal)
    • DB Jayden Bellamy (Transfer portal)
  • South Carolina
    • RB Marshawn Lloyd (Transfer Portal)
    • RB Christian Beal-Smith (Injury)
    • WR Josh Vann (Injury)
    • WR Antwane Wells (Injury)
    • WR Corey Rucker (Transfer portal)
    • TE Jaheim Bell (Transfer portal)
    • TE Austin Stogner (Transfer portal)
    • TE Traevon Kenion (Retirement)
    • DL Zacch Pickens (Opt-out)
    • DB RJ Roderick (Transfer portal)
    • CB Cam Smith (Opt-out)
    • CB Darius Rush (Opt-out/Injury)
  • Too many opt outs to care about stats, but ND might be getting QB Tyler Buckner back so I think that this line is a free roll here for the Irish.   Take ND

ND -2.5 – 2 stars

Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming +1 O/U 42

Start Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: Barstool

Location: Arizona Stadium — Tucson, Ariz.

  • Ohio: Motivation – Medium High – Tucson isn’t much different than Tombstone Arizona but at least it’s warmer.
  • Wyoming:  Motivation – Medium – Not sure what these kids will do against a MAC team here.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Craig Bohl, Wyoming – 11-3 ATS
  • Ohio
    • QB Kurtis Rourke (Injury) for Ohio
  • Wyoming
    • RB Titus Swen (Transfer portal)
    • RB Joey Braasch (Transfer portal)
    • RB Dawaiian McNeely (Injury)
    • RB D.Q. James (Injury)
    • WR Joshua Cobbs (Transfer portal)
    • DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (Transfer portal)
  • Ohio looked terrible vs Toledo without Rourke, and I can’t see them looking any better this game all the way in Tucson.
  • Wyoming lost all their running backs and their best WR and Defensive end.
  • Both teams about equal in yards per play close to even.
  • Craig Bohl is too good at bowl games to ignore playing Wyoming here for something.

Wyoming PK – 1 star

Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson -5.5 O/U 63.5

Start Time: 8:00 P.M. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.

  • Clemson:  Motivation – Medium High – Dabo is a great coach and they have a new life with their young QB in Cade Klubnik.
  • Tennessee:  Motivation – Medium low  – They still get to play Clemson even after the rough loss to South Carolina with the injury to Hendon Hooker that took them out of the Playoffs.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Josh Heupel, Tennessee – 1-3
  • Dabo Swinney, Clemson – 12-6
  • Tennessee
    • QB Hendon Hooker (Injury)
    • WR Jalin Hyatt (Opt-out)
    • WR Cedric Tillman (Opt-out)
    • WR Jimmy Calloway (Transfer portal)
  • Clemson
    • WR Beaux Collins (Injury)
    • WR Decari Collins (Transfer portal)
    • WR EJ Williams (Transfer portal)
    • DT Myles Murphy (Opt-out)
    • DE Xavier Thomas (Injury)
    • LB Trenton Simpson (Opt-out)
  • Let the Cole Klubnik Era begin.
  • It’s hard to know the upgrade from Cole Klubnik when he lost two of his top 4 receivers.
  • At the same time, how good is Joe Milton who had to do essentially nothing at Vanderbilt and is without two of his top four receivers.
  • I trust Dabo here more than Heuple, but I think that the under might be a good look in this game.

Under 63.5 – 2 stars

Saturday, Dec. 31

Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky +2.5 O/U 31.5

Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ABC

Location: Nissan Stadium — Nashville, Tenn.

  • Iowa: Motivation – Medium – Fun destination for these kids in Nash-Vegas, but by the way that they play offense, I don’t expect them to do much.
  • Kentucky: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t think Kentuckians like Tennessee.   I might be wrong.
  • Home Field:  Kentucky somewhat only going 212 miles away.
  • Kirk Ferentz, Iowa – 11-6-1
  • Mark Stoops, Kentucky – 3-2-1
  • Kentucky
    • QB Will Levis (Opt-out)
    • RB Chris Rodriguez (Opt-out)
    • RB Kavosiey Smoke (Transfer portal)
  • Iowa
    • QB Alex Padilla (Transfer portal)
    • QB Spencer Petras (Injury)
  • Iowas QB Joey Labas, has never attempted a pass.
  • QB Keiya Sheron will be at the helm for the Wildcats.
  • Both teams are without a quarterback but I think Kentucky lost more without their two main running backs.
  • This is the lowest total in college football, but I sure as hell am not taking the over.
  • Neither offense is any good, but I think Iowa wins by 2 points.  Kirk Ferentz is too good in bowls.

Iowa PK -125 – 1.5 stars

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State +6 O/U 56 

Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.

  • Kansas State: Motivation – High – Playing Nick Saben and Alabama really says it all.
  • Alabama:  Motivaiton – Medium – But Don’t count out Nick Saben here.  Same thing happened in 2019 where they put a whooping on Michigan.  (phyliss)
  • Home Field:  Alabama should have more fans here 288 miles away from Tuscaloosa.
  • Chris Klieman, Kansas State – 1-1
  • Nick Saban, Alabama – 11-8 (at Alabama)
  • So far, no major transfers or opt outs affecting this bowl minus maybe Alabama’s starting guard who went to TCU in Javion Cohen.
  • Alabama has a 1.4 net yard per play advantage here.
  • Bama will lose some guys to transfer, but  QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, EDGE Will Anderson, CB Malachi Moore, S Jordan Battle, and S Brian Branch are all in right now.
  • Will Howard will quarterback once again for Kansas State, but he isn’t all that experienced like Bryce Young is in big situations.
  • Remember when people thought Alabama wouldn’t be motivated to beat Michigan in 2019?   How did that go?
  • I have Alabama -9.5.

Alabama -6 – 3 stars

Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU +8 O/U 58

Start Time: 4:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Ariz.

  • Michigan: Motivation – High – Playoffs
  • TCU: Motivation – High – Playoffs
  • Home Field:  Michigan has more fans than TCU so slight advantage Blue.
  • Jim Harbaugh, Michigan – 3-5
  • Sonny Dykes, TCU – 2-2
  • Michigan
    • RB Blake Corum (Injury)
    • TE Colston Loveland (Injury)
  • TCU is coming into this game relatively healthy, but they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s all year long ranking 3rd in EPA per play and 8th in success rate.
  • Max Duggan has a ton of heart and this team very much deserved to make it this far by the way that they finished, but I think that they were also fortunate this year to win some of the game that they have, and it could all catch up to them this game.
  • Michigan has a .7 yards per play advantage over TCU and they rank higher in success rate.
  • I am not really worried about the Blake Chorum injury as Donavan Edwards has been sensational at 7.45 yards per carry.
  • Michigan is the experienced team here and a Trust them more than TCU.
  • I have Michigan -11, but I like the first half more due to TCU’s magic at the end of games.

Michigan 1st half -4 – 2.5 stars

Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Georgia vs. Ohio State +6.5 O/U 62

Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.

  • Ohio State:  Motivation – High – Playoffs
  • Georgia:  Motivation – High – Playoffs
  • Home Field:  Slight lean to Georgia being in their own State.
  • Kirby Smart, Georgia – 7-2
  • Ryan Day, Ohio State – 1-3
  • Georgia
    • WR Ladd McConkey (Injury)
    • OL Warren McClendon (Injury)
  • Ohio State
    • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Injury)
    • RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injury)
    • RB Miyan Williams (Injury)
    • OG Matt Jones (Injury)
    • LB Teradja Mitchell (Transfer portal)
  • I think that Ladd McConkey does play for Georgia but I haven’t heard his status.
  • Georgia has had a slightly harder schedule ranking 32nd to Ohio State’s ranking 44th
  • Ohio State has a .22 net yard per play advantage, but I also think that Georgia shut it down early against a lot of the teams that they have played.
  • Ohio State has some big running back issues with Henderson out, and they will have to rely some on their young backups.
  • My number is Georgia -7 in this game.  Something is wrong with Ohio State and I feel that CJ Stroud isn’t the same without a clean pocket.

Monday, Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. Mississippi State +1 O/U 46

Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN2

Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.

  • Mississippi State: Motivation – High – They will want to win this for Mike Leach.
  • Illinois:  Medium High – Illinois first bowl game in a while.  Getting to play SEC is nice, but Illinois blew their chances to win the Big 10 West.   Let’s hope Brett doesn’t hit it too hard in Tampa!
  • Home Field:  None
  • Bret Bielema, Arkansas – 5-4
  • Illinois
    • RB DD Snyder (Transfer portal)
    • RB Chase Brown (Opt-out)
    • TE Luke Ford (Opt-out)
    • LB Ezekiel Holmes (Injury)
    • CB Devon Witherspoon (Opt-out)
    • CB Tahveon Nicholson (Injury)
    • S Sydney Brown (Opt-out)
  • Mississippi State
    • RB Dillon Johnson (Transfer portal)
    • RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
    • RB J.J. Jernighan (Transfer portal)
    • RB ​​Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
    • WR Rara Thomas (Transfer portal)
    • WR Zavion Thomas (Transfer portal)
    • S Collin Duncan (Declared for the draft)
  • Illinois has a .78 net yard per play advantage here.
  • The death of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach was devastating, but I think it rallies this Bulldogs team to try and win one for the gipper.
  • Mississippi State has had the harder SOS ranking 17th to Illinois at 52nd.
  • Illinois defense is the best unit on the field even with the loss of DC Ryan Walters, but they might have some opt outs.
  • If Illinois keeps it together, I like them to win the game, but their transfers are really decimating this defense.
  • Lean Illinois -1, but the Mike

Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue +15 O/U 56.5

Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ABC

Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.

  • LSU:  Motivation – Medium – Lost chances to get into playoffs and some kids will sit out.
  • Purdue: Motivation – Medium – They get to try and beat an overrated SEC team but  Jeff Brohm is going to Louisville.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Brian Kelly, LSU – 5-9
  • LSU
    • QB Jayden Daniels (Injury)
    • WR Jack Bech (Transfer portal)
    • WR Kyren Lacy (Injury)
    • WR Jaray Jenkins (Opt-out)
    • EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
    • LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
    • CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
    • DT Maason Smith (Injury)
    • NT Jaquelin Roy (Opt-out)
    • EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
    • EDGE Ali Gaye (Opt-out)
    • EDGE Desmond Little (Transfer portal)
    • LB Kolbe Fields (Transfer portal)
    • LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
    • CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
    • CB Sevyn Banks (Injury)
    • CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (Transfer portal)
    • CB Damarius McGhee (Transfer portal)
    • CB Mekhi Garner (Opt-out)
    • S Derrick Davis Jr. (Transfer portal)
  • Purdue
    • RB Kobe Lewis (Transfer portal)
    • LG Spencer Holstege (Transfer portal)
    • CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
    • QB Aidan O’Connell (Opt-out)
    • RB King Doerue (Injury)
    • WR Charlie Jones (Opt-out)
    • WR Elijah Canion (Injury)
    • WR Broc Thompson (Injury)
    • TE Payne Durham (Opt-out)
    • CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
  • This line shot up after Jeff Brohm announced that he is moving to Louisville and it got much worse when O’Connell opted out, but I have to wonder if it has went up too much.   Jeff’s brother Brian will be the interim coach for this game.  LSU only as a .73 net yard per play advantage, and they lost their best corner and edge rusher to the NFL.
  • I don’t like Chip Kelly’s bowl ATS here at 5-9.  Lean Purdue.

Cotton Bowl Classic: USC vs. Tulane +2.5 O/U 62

Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas

  • USC:  Motivation – Low – The shank protectors blew their chances at the playoffs and Pac 12 title in 1 day.  Kids are leaving as well.
  • Tulane: Motivation – Medium High – Keep the good feelings going!
  • Home Field:  None supposedly, but I think the crowd goes for Tulane so there’s that.
  • Willie Fritz, Tulane: 12-8
  • Lincoln Riley, USC -2-2
  • USC
    • QB Caleb Williams (Injury)
    • C Brett Neillon (Injury)
    • OG Andrew Vorhees (Injury)
    • LB Ralen Goforth (Transfer portal)
  • USC has the SOS at 46th to 73rd and they have the talent, but Tulane’s defense is certainly better ranking 59th in success rate to USC at 127th.
  • Tulane has the net yards per play advantage at .68, but they haven’t quite had the schedule like USC has.
  • My pure power ratings have it at -7, but with the offensive line issues I would make it more at -4 if USC was motivated and healthy.
  • I also think that more opt outs are coming for USC like WR Jordan Addison and Tahj Washington so that would be really rough if that is the case.
  • If I am Kaleb Williams, I do not play this game because I have nothing really to gain by it.   Lean Tulane.

Rose Bowl Game: Utah vs. Penn State +2 OU 52

Start Time: 5:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Rose Bowl — Pasadena, Calif.

  • Utah:  Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
  • Penn State:  Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
  • Home Field:  None
  • James Franklin, Penn State – 6-4
  • Kyle Whittingham, Utah – 10-5
  • Penn State
    • WR Parker Washington (Opt-out)
    • DL Rodney McGraw (Transfer portal)
    • CB Joey Porter Jr. (Opt-out)
  • Utah
    • RB Tavion Thomas (Opt-out)
    • TE Dalton Kincaid (Opt-out)
    • DB Malone Mataele (Transfer portal)
    • CB Clark Phillips III (Opt-out)
  • Both teams without their best pass catcher and their best cover corner.
  • Both strength of schedules about equal at 41 ish.
  • Penn State has a .4 net yards per play advantage.
  • Utah has the best unit on the field in their offense, but how much does it downgrade with Kincade out?
  • From a side perspective, who do you trust more?  Franklin or Whittingham?   Clifford or Rising?
  • I remember seeing Utah struggle against running quarterbacks over this year against Florida, UCLA, Oregon and USC until Williams got hurt.   I think I see a lot of points here.

Over 52 – 2.5 stars

Monday, Jan. 9

College Football Playoff National Championship Game: TBD  What is the teams and the spread?

  • Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.

NBA Premiums, Full List 12.28

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

No props today, but adding two more plays below. Love that we already got some CLV on the Nets’ game.

—

Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Nuggets/Kings 1Q over 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets/Kings 1H over 121.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Nuggets offense started looking clunky and tired last night at Sacramento, and neither team really wanted to play defense. The Nuggets only had 31 points with 4 minutes left in the 2nd QTR, before they turned up the volume and started finally nailing some shots. Then we saw both offenses start to click in the second half. I love that rhythm to continue tonight. Both teams will continue to compete for “who’s the best offense” award and maybe some defense shows up in the second half, so we’ll go with the 1Q and 1H overs. Domantas Sabonis should return tonight, too, which is a major uptick for Sacramento’s offense.

NBA Premiums, 12.28

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

The insanity continues– 23 points in the Knicks/Dallas game in the final minute to kill our under play, and the Grizz don’t show up at home against an injured rival.

What can ya do! Onto the next:

Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Probably more plays coming but get these two in now!
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