It is hard to figure out the woes of Ohio State who was at one point a top 15 team and now has lost 11 of their last twelve big 10 games. They are out of the Big Dance no matter what they do, but at some point, this team has to show some integrity. Ohio State tends to play at the pace that is set for them slowing it down vs Michigan State and Northwestern while speeding it up vs North Carolina and Iowa. Key word here is Iowa. The Hawkeye’s are the fasted playing team in the Big 12 ranking 15th in average possession length. They are fine giving up the near proximity shot and rebound as long as they can charge back towards their own hoop. Ohio State should be able to find some success here on offense still ranking 25th in offensive efficiency on Kenpom. Take the over.
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Milwaukee at Chicago +8 (O/U 229)
A screwed up Bulls squad heads home to face Milwaukee on a back-to-back. Losers of 5 straight, they have had a hard time scoring points averaging only 97 in their last 5, shooting 44% from the field and 25% from three. Now have to face a Milwaukee defense, who is 4th in assists, 2nd in field goal % and plays a stingy defense.
While the over might be 2-0 this season(1 via OT), the previous 7 match-ups between these two teams unders are 6-1. The Bulls last 9 games, the under is 7-2 against the closing line, as well as their last 6 at home the under is 5-1. Chicago’s last 5 back-to-backs, the under is 4-1, which tells me they have no problem playing defense on no rest.
The Bucks exited a 3 game western road trip, and had a bit of a let down vs Boston’s B team. Previous to this game, 5/6 had been under, as well as their last 11 away games they are 9-2 to the under.
I don’t see this being a high scoring affair, with Chicago’s inability to shoot at a high % and the Bulls keeping Milwaukee off the offensive boards.
Under 229 (FanDuel -110) 1.25 units
LA Clippers at Phoenix PK (O/U 221.5)
The Clippers head to Phoenix before the All Star break searching for another road to win to add to their resume. They are only 1 of 2 teams with a positive road record in the West, also winners of 7 of 9 road games, with losses at Milwaukee and Cleveland. When they lost to Phoenix back in December, they played with a, quoting Field Media “skeleton Clipper crew.” I was impressed with the Clippers win vs Golden State two nights ago, down 4 at the break, they battled back with 73 2nd half points to pull away late.
The Suns winners of 4 out of 5, have been better recently with Booker and Ayton being healthy. Of those 4 wins, I don’t consider any of them defensive clubs. Now they face the Clippers who give up only 109.2 points per game on 1 day rest. The Suns will have to vastly improve to beat LA tonight. The addition of Durant will be huge for them going forward, but they had to pay the piper losing a lot of their role players in the process. I believe this doesn’t bode well for them tonight, facing a Clipper team with a deep bench. Yes Powell is out for rest, but that bench gets deeper and will be the difference maker tonight.
The Clippers will attack Phoenix tonight at the free throw line and from behind the arc. The Suns rank in the bottom 5 defensively in free throw attempts and free throws made, and have been prone to giving up a high % from three at times this year. The Clips have shot 40% from three in their last 5, and will strike tonight in key moments. This will be a strong unit upgrade for me!
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, @ShotPropz, and I break down the games for February 16th along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
NHL Preview/ Picks – February 16th, 2023
Montreal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes
Winnipeg Jets @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals
Boston Bruins @ Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils @ St. Louis Blues
Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames
Philadelphia Flyers @ Seattle Kraken
San Jose Sharks @ Vegas Golden Knights
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Jordan: @ShotPropz
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
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San Antonio at Charlotte -5.5 (O/U 242)
Many would look at this game and ask, how the heck could Charlotte be 5.5 point favorites vs ANYONE. The answer in two words, San Antonio. Yes both teams have been bad this season, but one is somewhat competitive, the other not necessarily. The resurgence of Gordon Hayward has surely improved matters, scoring 47 points in the last two games, dishing out 11 assists and 4 steals.
The Hornets ended their 7 game losing streak this past Monday vs Atlanta with their highest offensive output of the season, scoring 144 points, while shooting 63% from the field. This is good news for the Hornets who face a Spur team who give up 51% shooting. It looks like the Hornets will be without Rozier tonight, look for Dennis Smith to have an expanded role in the offense, in return we get a reduced line on Charlotte. Works for me!
Charlotte is 6-8 ATS in their last 14, going 3-2 ATS at home with outright wins in all three vs Atlanta, Chicago and Miami. I know it might not look that impressive to some, but their recent form towers over a San Antonio club who is completely reeling. Before Monday’s game in Cleveland where they covered as 16 point dogs, they failed to cover in 11 straight and are 11-27 ATS as 5-12 point dogs. They seem to struggle with everyone, sporting a record of just 2-9 vs teams under .500 on the road. The Spurs just don’t seem to play the underdog role very well.
This Spurs offense averages over 15 turnovers a game, while Charlotte ranks 8th and 10th in the TO category. I think turnovers could be a big factor tonight, leading to more opportunities on the offensive end for Charlotte. Look for the Hornets to win by many tonight!
Hornets -5.5 (BetRivers -110) 3 units
Good luck to everyone if tailing, let’s get this 3 unit play HOME!
Another night, another disrespectful line for Northwestern. I don’t view this as a great spot for Indiana having to play their 2nd straight road game and coming off an emotional win at Michigan. Moreso, I don’t like this matchup for Indiana’s offense at all.
Indiana is an efficient jump-shooting team, but they attempt the 16th fewest 3’s in the country; on Saturday, they attempted just 6 three-pointers at Michigan. You can beat Northwestern from the outside, but you are going to have a tough time beating them as you get closer to the basket. The Wildcats rank 17th in opponent 2pt FG% and block 4.5 shots per game. Northwestern also forces nearly 14.5 turnovers per game, while Indiana can get a little sloppy with the basketball(144th in turnovers/game).
Northwestern does not have good overall shooting numbers, and in particular, they have shot 26.5% from deep over their last 5 games. With that said, Indiana has struggled mightily to defend the 3 on the road this season, allowing over 35% from beyond the arc in this role. Indiana has a strong 2pt defense that Chris Collins knows his guys can’t beat, but given Northwestern ranks in the Top 20% of the country in 3pt attempts, I think Northwestern will play this matchup correctly. All we need is a semi-decent shooting night from Northwestern here.
We’ve already seen the Wildcats beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this year, and as a kicker, the Wildcats hold a 3.5% advantage at the Foul Line in what’s sure to be a down-to-the-wire game. I like Indiana in a lot of roles, but this isn’t one of them; similarly, I think this Northwestern team continues to be undervalued despite consistently showing they’re a legit tournament team.
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Orlando at Toronto -7.5 (O/U 221.5)
Yes I have stated in the past I don’t buy into the Magic hype, but as sports bettors you must prepare to change your opinion quickly or get left in the dust. Realizing you have made a mistake analyzing a team I believe is a huge part of success and many have trouble admitting it. Well I was WRONG!
This Magic team plays a hard brand of defense, gets to the free throw line quite often and has a little edge to them. All qualities of a winning basketball team. With that said, they head to Toronto on a back-to-back, where quite honestly their record is not good straight up. They’re 1-9 SU, but 5-5 ATS. This tells me they come to play, just come up a little short. The Magic are 5-3 in their last 8, with wins vs Denver, at Philadelphia and at Minnesota, all while winning those five as 4, 5, 2, 5.5 and 9.5 point dogs. They seem to relish this role! In those 8 games, they have given up on average 106 points a game, which is not good news for Toronto shooting 46% in their last 5. When they played twice at Orlando in December, the Raptors shot 40 and 42% from the field. With the Magic winning both.
Toronto is 2-5 ATS in their last 7, with wins vs Detroit, San Antonio and Houston, yikes! They are also 1-6 ATS last 7 on 1 days rest, as well as 8-14 vs teams under .500.
Like I said, Orlando embraces the underdog role, going 18-9-1 as 5-9.5 point underdogs. I’m all over the Magic tonight, lets even sprinkle in a light ML play.
Magic +7.5 (Barstool -108) 1.75 units
Magic ML+245 (Barstool) 0.25 unit
Washington at Portland -1.5 (O/U 236)
Both teams will enter tonight on back-to-backs, with one nearly setting a franchise record in 3’s(23 to be exact) and the other looking for revenge. Fresh on their minds, the Wizards blew a 20 point lead in Washington just 11 days ago vs this Blazer team. Since then have gone 2-3, with losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Golden State. As well as losing Kyle Kuzma, with him missing the last 3 games. Ironically they have averaged close to 125 points in the three, while shooting a red hot 58% from the field. This is good news for the Wizards, since Portland ranks 26th defensively in FG%, giving up 52% shooting in their last 5 games.
In their previous match-up Simons hit 9 three pointers, he had a 4 game span of hitting 5, 3, 9 and 5 in those games. Since then he has hit 1, 2, 1 and 2. Yes Lilliard could go off at any time, but without Simons production they will have a hard time staying with Washington tonight. While Washington ranks in the middle of the pack vs 3’s, it will be a point of emphasis to stop Anfernee tonight.
The Blazers are 8-13 ATS in non-conference games, and 1-4-1 at home ATS in their last 6. I still love the Wizards record on 0 days rest of 7-3, they come ready to play. Don’t forget Washington can shoot it from beyond as well, averaging 39.5% from 3 in their last 5. I don’t beleive Portland’s success will continue beyond the arc, which is why I’m all over the Wizards tonight!
Washington +1.5 (BetMGM -110) 1.25 units
Good luck to all those if tailing, lets keep HOT February going!
I am simply not a believer in Illinois, especially in sleepy road games. Despite shooting 31.5% from deep, Illinois hacks up the 31st most 3’s per game in the country. Brad Underwood has done a poor job of playing to his offenses’ strengths, and the fact he hasn’t adapted this deep into the season is mind-boggling.
Illinois is very good on the other end of the floor, but this Penn State offense is no joke. The Nittany Lions have shot nearly 39% from 3 this season and take care of the basketball at the 3rd best rate in the country. This is a team that DOES play to their strengths, ranking 8th in 3pt attempts per game. Micah Shrewsberry knows his team can’t match up with Illinois’ physicality on the inside, but he has the pure shotmakers to combat that.
There are 3 intangibles I like about this matchup. First, we’ve seen Penn State take advantage of this matchup before; they beat the Illini by 15 in Champagne earlier in the season. Secondly, Penn State has stepped up well in these home spots all year, already notching wins over Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa on their home floor. Lastly, Penn State is the most experienced team in the country, while Illinois is one of the youngest teams in the Big10.
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In the spirit of Cupid, lets give out some plays that we love!
LSU vs Georgia -4 O/U 137.5
This is an under the radar SEC game that I think has some good value. This line might be a little short due to folks thinking that the Bulldogs are in a let down spot from beating Kentucky at home. Are they really in a let down spot? The Bulldogs are 15-10 with wins vs Auburn, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. They have a shot to be on the bubble of the NCAA tournament. Had they not, this might be more of a fade spot. Georgia isn’t the best shooting team ranking 294th in effective FG%, but they at least are 49.2% at home, and they paly solid defense ranking 67th in opponent effective FG% at 47.7. LSU on the other hand hasn’t won a game since December 28th vs an injured Arkansas team. They are out of the NCAA tournament no mater what they do. They rank 299th in effective FG% on offense and 209th on defense. Matt McMahon hasn’t shown that his team can step up on the raod being that they still haven’t won an away game all year long. LSU at least has South Carolina on deck where they might get a win finally, but there is a chance that they have given up when on the road. I will gladly take the Bulldogs here who rank 116th on Kenpom at home against an LSU team who ranks 132nd.
Georgia -4 – 3 stars
Nebraska vs Rutgers -13 O/U 130
This game screams Rutgers at home against a lower tiered big 10 team, but I am not so sure. How many points do we need to give a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 290th in effective FG% at 48.1% and 240th in adjusted Tempo? Nebraska isn’t a good basketball team, but they at least rank 59th in opponent efficiency and they are decent near the rim ranking 47th in near proximity shots. Rutgers is without one of their best defenders in Mawot Mag which could throw a wrench into their blow-out plans. I will take my chances with the points.
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Brooklyn at NY Knicks -2.5 (O/U 220)
The vibe in New York and at the Madison Square Garden is as high as ever. This team is vibrant, energetic and it is contagious. This Knick team is having fun and bringing in Josh Hart is exactly what they needed, a high 3pt % shooting, outspoken, shooting guard who plays hard on both ends!
Yes I know the narrative, Brooklyn has beaten the Knicks 9 straight times. They have heard this for 2 days in the Big Apple and quite some time before that. No Harden, no Durant, no Irving, this new look Brooklyn team could have trouble with this high flying, fast New York club.
Brooklyn’s last three games they have failed to shoot over 43% from the field. Now they have to face a Knick team who might not necessarily force a lot of turnovers, but they’re extremely good at holding teams to low shooting percentages. What New York does do well, Brooklyn basically doesn’t. The Knicks are top five offensively in turnovers, free-throw attempts and offensive rebounds. While Brooklyn ranks 20th, 26th and 26th in those categories.
The Knicks winners of 3 of 4, have shown they can win both types of games, high scoring and low scoring defensive games. Three of their last nine outcomes have been determined by overtime, and this team has shown a fight in every single one of them. I believe the Knicks end that streak tonight and end the narrative of losing to Brooklyn.
Knicks -2.5 (BetRivers -110) 1 unit
Washington at Golden State -4 (O/U 233.5)
Golden State comes off two, as in Steve Kerr put it “frustrating games.” Lilliard scored 33 points off of 16 free throws in Portland last Wednesday. 3 days later they lose at home to a LeBron-less Lakers, in a poor shooting performance, shooting only 42% from the field and 27% from three.
Luckily, they face a Washington team who has had it struggles defensively as of late, giving up over 13 three-pointers a game. I think the Wizards are vastly improved this season, but I don’t believe they are at Golden States level yet. While Washington is 5-3 in their last eight games, 3 of those wins have come across bottom, feeder teams Houston, San Antonio and Charlotte. While the other two are vs struggling Indiana and New Orleans.
I believe Golden State will show its class tonight and take care of business at home.
