Sitting at 28-24-1 on the season, I’m rolling with 3 CBB plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a rough Wednesday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Jackson State/Stephen F Austin OVER 142.5–2 PM CT
Both of these teams rank in the top quarter of the country in pace, and Jackson State ranks outside of the Top 300 in defensive efficiency. SFA shoots 49% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc; with their pace in mind, they should be able to get whatever they want offensively. Jackson State doesn’t have that sort of pedigree offensively, but context is needed. The Tigers have played one of the 5 hardest schedules in the country, already having matched up with Michigan, Indiana, TCU, Mississippi State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. When you exclude these games against laughably superior competition, JSU is averaging 74 PPG. The Lumberjacks won’t provide the level of resistance defensively that the Tigers are used to facing, and I think JSU will hold their own.
Wichita State is absolutely dreadful offensively, and I actually think Texas Southern can hold their own on that end of the floor. What TSU won’t be able to do, however, is create any separation offensively. Already this year, we’ve seen Wichita State allow 55 points or less on 5 separate occasions. Their game plan will be to slow the pace of this game down considerably and suffocate TSU on the defensive end. Given the Tigers shoot just 41% from the field, 26.5% from beyond the arc, and hold an assist/turnover ratio under 1, I see that plan working out quite nicely. Why does this TT start with a 6?
*CBB(0.5u): Illinois/Missouri OVER 153.5–8 PM CT
Illinois is going to get whatever they want down low in this matchup. Missouri is one of the smallest teams in all of CBB, a big reason why they rank just 309th in defensive rebounding %. Illinois, on the other hand, is a Top 40 offensive rebounding team in the country. Give Mizzou credit for their 10-1 start, but they’ve only played 1 Power 5 team up to this point; Kansas hung 95 on the Tigers rather easily.
For as much as I want to fade Missouri’s defense, I do trust their offense in this matchup. Mizzou has shot over 50% from the floor, over 36% from beyond the arc, over 74% from the FT line, and they hold an astounding 1.6 assist/turnover ratio. To top it all off, they run at a Top 15 pace in all of CBB. For as strong as I perceive Illinois to be defensively, they will be pushed to their limits facing a very complete Mizzou offense that runs with a lot of tempo.
Another 4-1 night in the books, and I’m telling you guys this feels different. Of course I did an insane deep dive earlier this week and that’s definitely helping, but I also think things are starting to make at least a little more sense.
Onto more WINS – these will be our only two plays today. Love what we’re doing – let’s not ruin it with too much exposure.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 2 units
Jazz 1H TT over 57.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
I hope everyone got this number, but it’s at a friendly -6.5 at most books now and I’d take that, too. Up to you if you’d rather put less units on that line. This game adds up beautifully for Utah. First, the psychology of it all. Washington already beat the Jazz once when Utah was floundering and the Wizards found a rhythm, but that’s not reminiscent of who they are now. Utah has one game left before they can enjoy a long holiday weekend at home, while the Wizards are on the FIFTH LEG of a horrific 6-game road trip that ends tomorrow, so this is the first night of a back to back. Washington also won their last contest, a big W in Phoenix, but that was more because of the Suns’ turning it over and fouling way too much. The Jazz are an AMAZING transition team and the Wizards, well, are not. They can’t stop it and they’re not good at responding with fast points of their own. This game is all about who controls the tempo and we strongly feel Utah will command it. It’s a way better spot for a more potent offensive team, and I think they take Washington to the barn and beat em up. Oh yea, and Kristaps Porzingis showed up as questionable on the injury report, too. Utah averages 58 ppg in the first half, too, and the line is telling us that Utah, as the favorite, is going to SCORE tonight. Go Jazz!
Time Captioned Below: Merry Christmas everyone! We have a very merry show today! ESPN’s and soon to be Fox Sport’s “The Bear” Chris Fallica joins us to cover all college bowls from December 24th through January 9th! We unfortunately have a slight technical difficulty later in the show in the last 1/3 of Chris’s interview with some static that might be annoying, but Kiev will also cover these final games in next week’s show! First, Kiev talks about why NFL teasers are a good look from here on out. Next, he gets into the FULL SLATE of NFL week 16 games with some jolly FREE PLAYS as well as his refuse to lose teaser that is 9-5-1 so far for the year. Then, Chris comes on to talk about 2022 College Football bowl season! Kiev and Chris go through all the bowl games from Christmas Eve on as well as the college football playoffs! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
0 – 6:30 Merry Christmas Intro and Teasers
6:31 – 39:50 – NFL info, Plays and leans
39:51 – 2:17:30 – Chris Fallica and College Football Bowls
2:17:31 – 2:22:10 – Sharp Money Movement
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I’m off to a 2-1 start in Bowl Season and have enjoyed a nice 7-2 run in CFB. Things will ramp up considerably next week, but before that, I’ve locked in one play for Christmas Eve looking to keep us rolling!
There is a possibility that I add one more play on this pre-Christmas slate if I get the line move I’m looking for. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Middle Tennessee State/San Diego State UNDER 49–12/24 7 PM CT
San Diego State is an Under team at their core. The Aztecs run at the 6th slowest pace in the country, and they are notoriously poor at finishing drives. In their 32 red zone series this year(that number is low to begin with), they have managed just 12 TD’s… ATROCIOUS stuff. QB Jalen Mayden has shown some bright spots(8.9 Y/A is encouraging), but this is a run-first team that ranks outside of the Top 100 in yards/play. MTSU has had a few blips against some of the more explosive backs they’ve faced, but they have otherwise been quite solid going up against the run. Given SDSU’s lack of big play ability in the backfield, I don’t see many explosive runs in this matchup. Moreover, I think the Blue Raiders hold a slight edge in the trenches and can pressure Mayden if Brady Hoke plays things more aggressively(which I don’t think will be the case). I have a hard time seeing the Aztecs get past 27.
With all that said, San Diego State is nails in their Front 7 defensively and will make MTSU QB Chase Cunningham’s life hell all night. Cunningham has thrown for a remarkably mediocre 7 Y/A this year, and the Blue Raiders struggle to create any explosiveness in the run game themselves; overall, this offense ranks just 98th in yards/play. When fast-paced teams are able to create explosive plays in multiple ways(think Tennessee or Washington), you won’t want to play an Under. In this instance, I find the Blue Raiders’ pace to be pretty inconsequential considering the severe disadvantages they face across multiple areas.
Each of these offenses lacks in critical areas, while each defense is good against the run and should have the edge in the trenches. It can’t be overstated how poor SDSU is at finishing drives; ultimately, that alone should keep this Under the total. I’d play this at anything 48 or higher.
Under 108.5 was available on the Raptors TT so we’ll take that. Here are some more plays, Expect more and more wins folks — this is our time of year approaching and I love the 2.0 investigation I’m doing right now. If we lose, it’ll rarely be on an improper handicap, I’ll tell ya that much. LFG –
Raptors TT under 108.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors, just like the Knicks, will be on their 5th game in 7 days and they’ve been on the road. Ergo, this is a terrible spot. The Raptors aren’t doing ANYTHING well on offense right now. They’re good at the rim and they’re okay in the mid-range, but they’re not consistent enough. Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. have fallen off as consistent contributors, and Pascal Siakam can rarely do it all by himself. He’s not really built that way. The Knicks will be tired in this game but they take pride in defense and their shots probably won’t fall as easily Wednesday. EVERYTHING was falling for them on Tuesday. They’ll go at a slower pace because they’re tired after being forced to run the floor with GS, which will only stimulate an already pedestrian Raptors tempo. The Raptors may win this but that doesn’t mean they’ll score a lot of points.
Nets TT over 118.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Nets 1H -7.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Oh, the poor Golden State Warriors! Fresh off a back-to-back where they tried their damndest to overcome a stingy Knicks’ defense, now they’ll face the length of Brooklyn, who absolutely EATS in the mid-range, and that’s an area where GS is really struggling this year. As Kerr looks to work in Lamb and Wiseman and other younger rotational players, they’ll continue to experience struggle-city in all things defense (and lots of bad fouls). Patty Mills is back and he contributes to the mid-range too, along with Curry, Kyrie, and of course Durant. This is also an insane scheduling spot in favor of Brooklyn, and even though the line has risen this high, I don’t think they’ll have any issue covering it. Klay and others could sit tonight, too, in this horrendous spot, while the Nets are completely healthy and the energy is extremely positive for the first time in a long time in Brooklyn. All Nets for me – I think they smash Golden State early and easily eclipse their point total in a statement game.
Lakers/Kings 1H over 118 (-110), to win 1.5 units
When AD isn’t on the floor, the Lakers’ defense just isn’t that imposing. Sabonis might be out tonight and normally that wouldn’t sit well for an over since he’s just a big contributor for the Kings, but he’s also a key figure for defensive rebounds and defense in general. In other words, the net loss might not be that significant. Both teams would have to play small ball too, which isn’t a bad thing. Russell Westbrook sitting would be a real crutch in the second unit’s speed but Sacramento’s perpetual high tempo should help create transition fireworks throughout the game. The Lakers play well against bad defenses and let’s be clear, the Kings have improved in some areas but they’re not a “good” defense. The Kings run in transition on nearly 40% of their live defensive rebounds, too, so even if LAL misses and tries to bring down this total, Sacramento can capitalize and help us out. I like a lot of points early in this one.
Hornets 1Q under 27.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
The Clippers lead the NBA in 1st QTR points allowed (26.3) and I like that they had a little trouble with the Hornets in their last contest. I hope PG plays but I love that the Hornets will be without Terry Rozier. Charlotte finally got their first win in a long time the other night against Sacramento and the pace of their offense can be a problem for some teams, but at the Staples Center against a top 3 defense and a team that’s already played you isn’t an ideal spot for the Hornets. This is also their 5th game in 7 days so it’s reasonable to think that maybe Charlotte tries to retain some of their gas in this contest. The only defensive issue LAC has had is in the mid-range, too, and that’s an area where the Hornets shoot very infrequently (30th in the NBA overall). Like the under early, and wouldn’t shy away from sprinkling on some other unders later.
Nice 4-1 night Tuesday, onto the next! Gonna let the lines settle in tomorrow, I’ll send an email later in the morning. For now, one play sticks out:
Raptors TT under 108 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors, just like the Knicks, will be on their 5th game in 7 days and they’ve been on the road. Ergo, this is a terrible spot. The Raptors aren’t doing ANYTHING well on offense right now. They’re good at the rim and they’re okay in the mid-range, but they’re not consistent enough. Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. have fallen off as consistent contributors, and Pascal Siakam can rarely do it all by himself. He’s not really build that way. The Knicks will be tired in this game but they take pride in defense and their shots probably won’t fall as easily Wednesday. EVERYTHING was falling for them on Tuesday. They’ll go at a slower pace because they’re tired after being forced to run the floor with GS, which will only stimulate an already pedestrian Raptors tempo. The Raptors may win this but that doesn’t mean they’ll score a lot of points.
I hate myself, lol. Adding an additional NBA play now that we got some more news about Jimmy Butler. My leans are also below, along with 2 lookahead lines we like.
Let’s, fucking, go!
12.20 Slate:
Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.
Bulls ML (+105), to win 1.05 units
Jimmy Butler is now doubtful with an illness and even though Chicago is a mess right now, this is a great correction spot after permitting 150 points in their last game. The Bulls need something to bring them together– this is a good chance to make it happen. I think they will win straight up.
Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
Warriors/Knicks over 221 (-110), to win 1 unit
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.
Leans:
Warriors +5.5
Grizzlies +1
Suns -7
Thursday, 12.22
Utah -7 or less, to win 1.5 units
When this line comes out, take it at 7 or less and don’t say I didn’t warn you. I hate the way Washington is playing and this is an ideal spot for Utah. The Wizards struggle defending good transition teams and that’s ALL the Jazz do. They’ll be at home in a much better spot in their final contest before Christmas – it’s an ideal setup.
Christmas
Bucks +4 (-110), to win 2 units
Too many points for what should be the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 1/2 months. Maybe this line goes up and I’m being dumb, but if anything the books should respect Milwaukee and consider this nearly a pick-em. I know how well Boston has played but Milwaukee will punch back at every turn and oh by the way, Giannis is still the most dominant player on any hardwood floor. We’ll look to take the first half over when it comes out, too, if the price is right.
We have eight games taking place across the NHL tonight. There are several important matchups including the Rangers/ Penguins, Lightning/ Leafs, and Devils/ Hurricanes. I break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Game Previews:
New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Time: 7:00 PM ET
New York Rangers: 18-10-5, 3rd Metropolitan (11-4-1 Away)
The Rangers have won their last seven games outscoring opponents 33-14 during that span. Their offensive production has picked up along with Igor Shesterkin returning to Vezina form.
Pittsburgh’s seven-game winning streak came to an end in their last game losing 3-2 to the Hurricanes. In their last eight games, they’ve only allowed an average of 2.0 goals against. After a slow start, Tristan Jarry has found his form.
NYR: I. Shesterkin (16-4-4), 2.39 GAA, .919 SV%
PIT: T. Jarry (14-3-3), 2.63 GAA, .921 SV%
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Lightning: 20-9-1, 3rd Atlantic (8-5-0 Away)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 19-7-6, 2nd Atlantic (11-2-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
+115
+120
+1.5 (-210)
o6.0 (-115)
Toronto Maple Leafs
-135
-140
-1.5 (+180)
u6.0 (-105)
The Leafs have a three-point lead over the Lightning but the Bolts have two games in hand. In their first matchup of the year, Tampa Bay defeated Toronto 4-3 in OT.
Tampa Bay has been red hot winning seven of their last eight including their last five. In their last five games, they haven’t allowed more than two goals against and have scored an average of 4.8 goals.
Toronto is in a minor slump losing their last two games. Before that stretch, they won seven of their last eight games. During this two-game skid, their goaltending has been subpar with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov both struggling.
TBL: A. Vasilevskiy (13-8-1), 2.55 GAA, .915 SV%
TOR: M. Murray (7-2-2), 2.45 GAA, .924 SV%
New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes
Time: 7:00 PM ET
New Jersey Devils: 21-8-2, 1st Metropolitan (11-1-1 Away)
The winner of this matchup will take over the lead in the Metropolitan Division.
After an incredible start to the year, the Devils have regressed a bit and are on a five-game losing streak. They’ve been outscored 20-11 during that span. In the Devils’ last three games they’ve only scored four goals despite recording over 32 shots on goal in each of those matchups.
The Hurricanes have been playing some great hockey as of late winning each of their last five games. During that span, they’ve averaged 3.0 goals for and 1.6 goals against. Pyotr Kochetkov who was third on their depth chart to start the season has been great for them posting a +9.7 GSAx through 14 games.
NJD: V. Vanecek (12-3-2), 2.37 GAA, .912 SV%
CAR: P. Kochetkov (9-1-4), 2.01 GAA, .923 SV%
Picks(s):
Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) – BetMGM
Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
Tampa Bay knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs last year and have already defeated them once this season. The Leafs are in a minor slump losing their last two games but should get up for this big matchup. Toronto has been great on home ice all season and I think they can get it done tonight. The Bolts have been playing great defensively as of late but if there’s one team that can put up goals, it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Philadelphia Flyers in Regulation (-115) – DraftKings
Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units
The Blue Jackets are coming off a hard fought game last night against the Dallas Stars. They’ve lost their last four being outscored 14-4 during that span. On the road, their offensive production nearly drops a goal per game which isn’t ideal given Philadelphia’s style of play. The Flyers are in a bit of a slump themselves, losing seven of their last nine but, this spot favors them. They’ve also been better on home ice and given the goaltending matchup, I think Philly can get it done in regulation.
Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – Caesars
Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and 4.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Centers.
Kevin Fiala over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – Bet365
Risk 0.38 to win 0.25 Units
He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Ducks also rank 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Other Player Prop(s) to Target:
Tony DeAngelo over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-190) – DraftKings
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and 3.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.
Cole Perfetti over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.0 SOG and 3.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Senators also rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 14th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-144) – FanDuel
He’s gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 8.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five.
Frank Vatrano over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-114) – FanDuel
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 SOG and 5.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
*CBB(0.5u): Alcorn State TT UNDER 56.5 @ Dayton–6 PM CT
Alcorn State’s offense is absolutely insufferable. The Braves shoot just 37% from the floor, 26.5% from deep, and hold a brutal 0.7 assist/turnover ratio. Dayton has plenty of limitations offensively, but their defense is staunch per usual; they’ve allowed less than 50 points on 4 separate occasions already this year. Perhaps what’s most important regarding a TT is that Dayton runs at a bottom 30 pace in the country and will slow this game down to a standstill. With possessions at a premium, I have a hard time seeing Alcorn State get into the upper 50’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Providence PK vs Marquette–6 PM CT
Give Shaka Smart credit for having Marquette up to snuff once again this season, but his team lacks in a few critical areas that always prove to be crucial in these sort of games. First off, the Golden Eagles are weak on the boards; they rank 268th in offensive rebounding % and 161st in defensive rebounding %. Secondly, Marquette is sizably worse at the free throw line than their counterparts in this matchup(69% vs 73.5%). Marquette has had some flawless performances this season in some of their bigger spots, but I simply can’t trust them on the road in a hostile environment when they can’t check the small boxes. Ed Cooley and the Friars get their first marquee win of the season tonight.
*CBB(0.5u): Baylor TT OVER 90.5 vs Northwestern State–7 PM CT
It’s been awhile since Baylor has drawn this favorable of a matchup. The Bears have fallen off the national radar after losses to Virginia and Marquette, but let’s not forget how good they’ve been in this role. Playing similar competition in their first 3 games, Baylor averaged a whopping 99.7 PPG. I have Northwestern State power-rated as a bottom 30 defense in all of CBB; last we saw of the Demons, they allowed 110 at Rice. Specifically, they don’t run at a slow enough pace to keep Baylor from naming their number here. Baylor very well might get into the triple digits tonight.
