Home Blog Page 226

NFL Super Bowl 57 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Kansas City vs Philadelphia -1 O/U 50.5

Well, the league seemed to have gotten what they wanted with Kansas City vs Philadelphia.  We have two of the top four teams in the league facing off in the big game!  A few narratives for both of these teams remain true.  The Eagles had a cake walk getting here getting the seventh seed at home, and playing the 49ers without a quarterback.  Kansas City played a very hard fought game with the victory assisted and helped secured  courtesy of the Ron Torbert officiating crew (not saying they necessarily would have lost) as well as some fumble luck vs Jacksonville.  In saying that, this doesn’t mean that these two teams aren’t great.   I have the Eagles as my 2nd best team in my power ratings behind Cincinnati while the Chiefs are tied for third with the 49ers.

Lets look at how these two teams matchup.  On the ground, both the Eagles and the Chiefs average 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, but the Chiefs allow 4.5 opponent rushing yards per attempt to the Eagles at 4.6.   Slight advantage Chiefs.  Through the air, the Chiefs are number one in drop-back EPA to the Eagles at number seven, but the Eagles are number one in opponent drop-back EPA to the Chiefs at number 16.  Advantage Eagles.  The birds are also number one in opponent passing yards per attempt at 5.4 to the Chiefs at number six at 6.1.

The Chiefs are +1.1 net yards per play to the Eagles at .9, but the Eagles are the more efficient team on offense at 13.4 yards per point to the Chiefs at 14.2.  Close to a push if you ask me.   The Chiefs have had the harder strength of schedule ranking 9th to the Eagles at 29th, and I have to factor that in some, but I also think that the NFL didn’t have all that much parody this year being that the NFC East was much better than the AFC West as a whole.

What I find is that the Chiefs path to victory is running the ball with Isaiah Pacheco, but as you could see last week, rushing only worked some of the time for a great rush team like the 49ers.   Since week 9, the Eagles have improved their opponent rush EPA to 12th while the Chiefs regressed to 20th.  Stopping Christian Jones will be a big task for the Birds, but the Eagles have the 6th ranked offensive line.

Even though our NFL 2022 MVP looks ok for now, we still can’t forget the Patrick Mahomes ankle injury.  The kid is a warrior, but the Eagles pass rush ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate, number two in pressure rate, and number one in total sacks.  I don’t think that the refs are going to allow all the holding that they did during the Bengals vs Chiefs AFC conference game, and especially with a flag throwing official like Carl Cheffers crew who calls the second most amount of penalties compared to the rest of the NFL officials per game.  We also have to worry about all of the injuries to the Chiefs secondary with L’Jarious Sneed questionable and LB Willy Gay banged up.  WRS Kadarious Tony and JuJu Smith-Schuster who aren’t listed as injured due to the big game, left last week’s conference title game due to injuries as well.

The Eagles are 3rd in offensive EPA and 4th on defensive EPA, the Chiefs are 1st and 15th in those categories respectively.   The Eagles are just the more efficient team.  With the injuries, the path to the Super Bowl, the metrics that I had just broken down, and the overall offensive and defensive efficiency, I have to go with the Eagles to win this game 27-24.  I also think both teams have some nerves during the 1st half and will start out slowly.  Take the Birds with a potential hedge back as well as the 1st half under.

Eagles -1 – 3 stars – If the Eagles are up at least 9 points at any point, hedge back at Chiefs +6 or better for 1.5 stars.

1st half under 24.5 -120 – 1.5 stars

NFL Super Bowl 57 Free Prop Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Here are some prop plays that back up my super bowl story.   I truly believe that this game will focus more on the tight ends, and the running backs more than the wide receivers.  The game usually stars out pretty slow being that both coaches won’t be careless with the ball.  The second half usually outscores the 1st half in this game due to the desperation.  I think that we can find some value playing some on both sides and cash no matter which team wins!

No points scored in the 1st 5 minutes -225 – .5 stars

Travis Kelce anytime TD -115 – 1 star

1st TD Scorer all .2 stars
Kelce +700
Sanders +650
Pacheco +850
Goedert +1200
Gainwell +2500
Mahomes +3000 – .25 star

1st score home FG +450 – .5 stars
1st score away FB +390 – .5 stars

Any non-QB to have 1+ Pass TD +2200 – .5 stars (Philly special?)

Kenneth Gainwell over 11.5 receiving yards – 1.5 stars

Isaiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing/receiving yards – 1 star

Dallas Goedert over 44.5 receiving yards – 1 star

Kelce to have 75+ receiving yards and a TD +160 – .5 stars

Highest scoring half is 2nd half -120 – 1.5 stars

Longest FG Chiefs +105 – .5 stars

Total rushing TDs over 2.5 +150 – 1 star

Mahomes to throw INT -110 – .25 star
Hurts to throw INT +120 – .25 star

Will there be a 2 point conversion attempt – yes +152 – .25 stars

Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions -130 – .5 stars

Chiefs under 4.5 total rushers +225 – .5 stars (Fanduel)
Chiefs under 5.5 total rushers -170 – 1 star (Draftkings)

Triplet of NBA Plays with Eric Rocco

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter.

Let’s continue this heater in February, with our 3 unit play absolutely crushing last night! Articles are up +6.10 units on the month, with a record of 15-8-1!

Denver at Charlotte +8.5 (O/U 237.5)

Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone said, “We’re not playing hard enough.” As well as “Hopefully against Charlotte, we can find a way to play with a lot more effort, play with a lot more urgency.”

Essentially the HC called out his Nugget team to stop taking teams lightly. Losing at Orlando two nights ago by quite a margin due to, lack of effort. I expect a big effort tonight in Charlotte, Denver is 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss. The Nuggets are 1-8 away vs teams under .500, which in my opinion is more of a reason to play Denver tonight!

Charlotte is playing on back-to-back nights, playing 5 of their last 6 games away, as well as 11 of 16 away. They gave up 25 3’s vs Boston last night, that is not a good sign for the Hornets. With Denver ranking 1st offensively in FG and 3 point %, as well as 2nd in assists per game.

In Charlotte’s last 12 games being 7.5 point dogs or more, they are 3-9 ATS. They are in shreds right now, just trying to get through the season, losing and not covering in their last 5. I believe nothing changes tonight, so I’ll be backing Denver in the 1st half as well as the game.

1H: Nuggets -4.5 (BetMGM -110) 1.5 units

Nuggets -8.5 (Barstool -108) 0.75 unit

Utah at NY Knicks -6 (O/U 228.5)

This is a rare game where you have both teams playing back to backs, while playing different teams the night before. This is certainly foreign territory for the Utah Jazz, only playing 3 games away from Salt Lake in their last 14 and their 1st back to back in different cities since December 20th. The Jazz come off a comeback win in Toronto, being down 14 at one point, but were able to hold Toronto to 20 4th quarter points.

This Utah squad doesn’t exactly play a whole lot of defense, giving up 123 points a game in their last 7. Now facing a Knicks team who can get hot from the field, when they do look out! The Jazz desperately missed Clarkson last night, shooting as a team 6/24 from 3 point land. While he might come back tonight, they will need him and a lot more. What comes with is a player who turns the ball over consistently averaging almost 3 a game and 4 of his last 9 committing 4+. Utah ranks 25th in the league in TO’s, averaging 15.1 per game, this does not bode well facing a Knick team who ranks 4th in the league in forced TO’s.

The Knicks enter this game winning 5 of their last 9, with home wins vs Miami, Cleveland and Philly. As 6 point favorites or more, they are 5-1 ATS their last six games. When they’re heavier favorites they tend to take care of business. They have too much speed for Utah and play a pressuring defense, ranking 3rd defensively in FG%. They have rebounded the heck out of the ball recently, out-rebounding their last 7 of 9 opponents. Now face a Jazz team who have given up 14.6 offensive rebounds a game in their last 5.

Knicks -6 (FanDuel -110) 1.75 units

San Antonio at Atlanta -13.5 (O/U 240)

This young Spurs team of quite honestly no-names, head to Atlanta Saturday night to face the Hawks. San Antonio came off an OT loss in Detroit last night, while the Pistons caliber may not be as high as Atlanta these kids tried hard all the way to the buzzer. I found this stat interesting, they rank 4th in offensive assists per game. This shows me good coaching, and that the kids will listen. The proof is in the pudding.

I think this will be an up and down the court game tonight, with these two teams ranking 5th and 10th in pace. The Hawks have been scoring a plethora of points for a while, averaging 117 in their last 10, north of 115 in 6 of 9. Not good for the Spurs who give up 122.7 points a game, rank 30th in field goals made, as well as 3 point %. San Antonio is 5-3-1 to the over on back to back’s, with 5 straight overs. Giving up an average of 126 points defensively in each!

San Antonio is 16-9-1 to the over in away games, with 13 of their last 16 going over. As double digit dogs, the over is 8-1 their last 9. Atlanta comes into this game when 7 point favorites or more, the over is 6-1.

Over 240 (DraftKings -110) 1.25 units

 

Saturday, February 11th CBB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(1u): Florida 1H -5 vs Vanderbilt–2:30 PM CT

Vanderbilt pulled off the upset over #1 Tennessee earlier in the week… cool. I don’t think we’re getting back-to-back hero performances out of a pretty talentless Commodores team.

Florida has been through the ringer over the last 2 weeks, having to play at #5 Kansas State, vs #2 Tennessee(won outright), @ Kentucky, and @ #3 Alabama. The Gators are going to be licking their chops facing KenPom’s 179th ranked defense today after facing borderline elite teams across each of their past 4 games. Vanderbilt will get bailed out by teams who settle for 3’s, but that is not the makeup of this Florida team. The Commodores also struggle to force turnovers(332nd in TO’s forced), while Florida turns the ball over just 11 times per game(70th).

Vanderbilt is another team that is far more aggressive from 3 than they should be. This team shoots just 32.4% from deep, yet they hack up the 42nd most 3’s in CBB. Say what you want about Florida’s offense, but this is clearly a Top 10 defense in CBB that 9th in 2pt defense.

I love this spot for Florida, and I hate it just as much for Vandy. Rather than trust Florida to win by double digits(not their role), I’ll isolate this in the 1H. Water finds it’s level in Gainesville today.

*CBB(1u): Texas Tech PK vs Kansas State–6 PM CT

I’m of the belief that Texas Tech would probably be at least .500 in any other Power 5 conference but the Big12. In what other conference would a 1-10 team be a coin-flip vs the #12 team in the country?

Jerome Tang has done a phenomenal job with K-State this year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t weaknesses to this Kansas State team. Kansas State is very mediocre in their 2pt offense(143rd in CBB) and relies strictly on the playmaking ability of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell to be productive. Additionally, the Wildcats are sloppy with the basketball, turning the ball over nearly 13.5 times per game(291st in CBB). Texas Tech’s main strength defensively is forcing turnovers, and they are solid at defending both the 2 and 3.
 Texas Tech does a better job of getting easy buckets inside(49th in 2pt FG%) and will hold an advantage on the boards at the offensive end. Kansas State will have an opportunity to force TO’s here, but all els being equal, I think the home team shows a bit more poise in this matchup.

I’ve been hesitant to fade K-State lately given their resurgence on the defensive end over the last few weeks. With that said, I think Texas Tech is deep enough into conference play where some of these narrow losses are going to start turning into wins. The oddsmakers wouldn’t put out this line at a PK(knowing everybody will unload on KST) if they didn’t feel damn good about the Red Raiders’ chances to win.

College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

Only $300 for college basketball the rest of the season!!!

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Rutgers vs Illinois -5 O/U 135

This game isn’t hard to figure out.   Illinois has been heating up in Big 10 play winning seven of their last nine games.  They are a force from down low ranking 7th in near proximity shots.   Rutgers ranking 81st close to the rim, and 313th from mid range.  Rutgers is a great defensive team themselves ranking 3rd on Haslametrics in efficiency, but their best big defender in Mawot Mag was just lost for the season, and that is going to hurt down low.  Neither team can shoot the three ball all that well with Rutgers ranking 271st from the Arc and Illinois ranking 292nd.  This game is going to be won inside, and the Illini are the better rebounding team ranking 33rd on offense and 77th on defense to Rutgers ranking 58th on offense and 133rd on defense.  Illinois ranks 116th for home court performance.   Rutgers ranks dead last at 363rd away.   Take the Illini.

Illinois -5 – 2 stars

Baylor vs TCU +1 O/U 149

Bravo to TCU for what they have accomplished, but this team has lame duck syndrome all over them since they lost their point guard and leader Mike Miles.  Baylor is the number 1 team in offensive efficiency.  Their guard play is extraordinary with LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler leading the way.  Baylor’s only weakness is rebounding on defense, but we must not forget that Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is back for Baylor and has played well in his two games.  TCU’s weakness is from the arc only shooting 28.7% from downtown.   They also do not defend well against teams that pass the ball ranking 299th in assists per field goals made.  They also are a poor defensive rebounding team ranking 296th.   Baylor ranks number 12 in offensive rebounds and will have a ton of second chance opportunities.  Baylor is a great passing team and they have all the momentum now that they are finally healthy.  Take the Bears

Baylor -1 – 3 stars

 

Better Odds Sports Betting February 10th 2023 – Super Bowl 57 Props – Season 3 Episode 5 (57)

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Today Kyle Hunter @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev are joined by Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports discuss the big game with some prop plays on Sunday!   Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

 

The NEW look Mavericks head to Sacramento

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter.

Dallas at Sacramento -4.5 (O/U 232.5)

Jason Kidd has this new look Mavericks team feeling very good about themselves. Winners of two in a row and 4 of 5. This three game road trip is just what the doctor ordered, getting to be a ‘team’ again. They showed tremendous effort on both sides of the ball this past Wednesday in LA, and this new look team started to form a gel.

The Mavs are 4-1 ATS their last 5 away, but why is that important? They were rather not a good road team for much of the season, and reversing that trend against teams like Golden State, Utah, Phoenix and the Clippers. I think it is an immense sign going forward.

This truly is a great spot for Dallas, they landed an opponent looking to find themselves recently. Yes I know they’re off two road wins against the ‘lowly’ Rockets scoring a total of 270 points, but this shows me nothing. The Rockets remind me of a NCAA-F team who give up 500-700 yards weekly, and because of this we get a slightly inflated line. With the Kings giving up 52.1% from the field and 42.8% from 3 in their last 5 games.

Sacramento comes off a 7 game road trip of their own, where they sported a 3-4 record against not very quality opponents. As a matter of fact, there last 15 games they have faced only two quality playoff teams, and 5 of the 15 were even against playoff teams. Playing Houston 4 times, the Spurs twice and the T wolves twice. Also playing the Lakers, Thunder, Pacers and Raptors all teams near the bottom.

Now the Kings land a hungry, underrated Mavericks team looking to move up the standings. I expect a big performance from Dallas tonight!

Mavericks +4.5 (DraftKings) 3 units

Mavericks ML+155 (DraftKings) 0.5 unit

Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s get this 3 unit home!

College Basketball Buy Low Sell High 2/10/23 – 2/17/23

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buy Low:

San Jose State:  This team has some awful free throw luck with opponents hitting 77.2% from the charity stripe.   I think they clean up the turnovers and become more formidable down the stretch.

Washington State – Number 361st in luck in Kenpom.  This team had a bunch of weird injuries and they will get some guys back down the stretch.

Arkansas – This SEC team was picked to be top 2 preseason.  They lost some guys during the year, but the Mitchell brothers are playing some high quality basketball right now.

Sell High:

West Virginia – I like backing them in Morgantown, but this team has an away game 4 of the next 6, and I am not buying their top 15 ranking on Kenpom.

Rutgers – Losing Mawot Mag to an ACL is rough.  He was a great defender and 56% shooter from two.   OUCH.

Indiana – This team never does well down the stretch.  They have 4 of their next five games away from Memorial Stadium.  Looking to fade.

Mississippi State – This team had lucked out by getting both TCU and Missouri while they are hurt.

 

Podcast 12 – 23 – With Matt Landes– NFL Super Bowl 57 MORE Prop Plays – College Basketball Feb 10 – 12th – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a SUPER show for you today!  Matt Landes @MLandes18 from @Propsandhopspod joins us to talk some SUPERBOWL PROPS!  First, Kiev talks about a huge weekend in college basketball with some buy low, sell high teams as well as some Free Picks!   Then, Kiev talks some UFC 284 with a play on the main event!  Then, Matt comes on and the guys get right into beer and the Super Bowl!   What are some of the beers that they will be drinking for the big game?   What prop do Kiev and Matt like and why?  Which prop bets are they waiting on some line movement?  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

Vucevic and the Bulls head to Brooklyn

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

Articles are 8-2 this week, and 10-4 the last five days. With the T’Wolves winning by 25 points last night for our 2.25 unit SMASH!

Chicago at Brooklyn -2 (O/U 226)

The Bulls come off their worst offensive performance of the season, arguably one of the worst offensive performances in all of basketball this year. They landed Memphis at the worst time, Chicago was playing back to back nights and Memphis was playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder. With them saying, “we are the most hated team in basketball.” Well, they took it out on Chicago Tuesday, holding them to 37% shooting and 89 points.

In the previous two match-ups between these two squads, the Bulls were victorious in both, winning by 9 points in each of them and crushing Brooklyn on the boards. With the Nets being completely healthy in each, and also before the destruction of their old team.

Yes the Cam Thomas era has begun and so has the new look Brooklyn team. They have had no trouble scoring points, but they have had issues stopping them. Giving up 115 or more in 8 of 9, 123 or more in 5 of 9 and 130 or more in 3 of 9. All staggering numbers in which I believe the Bulls will be licking their chops walking into Barclays Center tonight. DeRozan is questionable and could miss a 2nd straight game, but I believe the Bulls will have enough fire power without him.

The Bulls shot 51% in their previous 3 before the Memphis game, and have continued to shoot at a high % all year. They average 25 free throw attempts per game, and have held their previous 5 opponents to under 45% shooting. Combine all that with Brooklyn ranking in the bottom 5 of most rebounding categories, I personally love the Bulls tonight!

Bulls +2 (DraftKings -110) 2 units

Vucevic P+R over 32.5 (DraftKings -115) 0.5 unit

Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s keep building!

1...225226227...682Page 226 of 682