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NBA Full Premiums, 12.20

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Nice + unit night – we need to add another play on Knicks/Warriors over since the line moved against us. I think it’s absolutely wrong. I’ll keep betting at anticipating that, but early in the season when the market and I disagree, I’ve won more than I’ve lost. I guess we’ll find out tonight.

Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.

Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
Warriors/Knicks over 221 (-110), to win 1 unit
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.

Podcast 89 – 22 – College Bowl & NFL Week 15 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 16 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports!  First, Kiev get’s into why officiating variance helps the bad and hurts the good sports bettor.  Next, we get into the good, the bad, and the ugly from the weekend.  Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots.  Next, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 16!  Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend!  Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag?  Or just want us to break down a game?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply. 

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Another Early NBA Premiums, 12.20

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.

Early NBA Premiums, 12.20

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Put in some knee-deep WORK today to recapture my understanding of the ol association. I thought I already had a fine perspective, I’ve certainly put in the work, but it’s important to keep iterating. On that bright note, I give you some early premiums.

Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.

Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.

Gotta Do It: D. Mitchell Prop

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Donovan Mitchell PAR over 37.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Against his former team = 110% effort.

December 19th CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A 6-4 week in Hoops brings my season record to 25-19-1, +2.05u. I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong!

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(0.5u): Siena +2 vs St Bonaventure–6 PM CT

I have no idea why St Bonaventure is a favorite tonight. The Bonnies are 0-4 straight up on the road this year; that includes a loss at Canisius and a 17 point loss at Buffalo. After losing a boatload of experience from last year’s team, the Bonnies rank just 358th in “Continuity” according to KenPom. While this is a fade of the Bonnies given the spot, Siena is no slouch this year either. The Saints have outright wins over Florida State(won by 17) and Seton Hall, and they led Ole Miss at Halftime. Siena will have the edge on the boards tonight as well as at the Free Throw line(74.5% FT percentage). I have seen no reason to expect St Bonaventure to hold up well on the road, and I think they fall once again tonight.

*CBB(0.5u): Oral Roberts TT OVER 83.5 vs South Dakota State–7 PM CT

Oral Roberts averages over 85 PPG, shoots 36.5% from beyond the arc, and turns the ball over less than 10 times per game. To top it all off, they run at a Top 30 pace in the country, making this an offense you want to back. While South Dakota State has held high-flying offenses like Arkansas and Alabama into the 70’s, it took extreme measures to do so; Arkansas turned the ball over 20 times, and Alabama shot less than 40% from the floor. Let’s not forget that the Jackrabbits allowed 93 to Stephen F Austin and 81 to Montana; this is not a Top 200 defense in the country. Knowing that pace will be on our side and ORU takes tremendous care of the basketball, I expect the Golden Eagles to get into the upper-80’s. 

NBA Premiums, 12.19

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up, all!
I always give out free picks on the Bet US NBA show Mon-Wed at 2:30 so check me out there if I don’t offer much here the next 2 weeks. Let’s get to our few picks today:
 
Hornets/Kings 1H O119.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Parlay: 1H O119.5 + Kings 1H -5.5 (+240), to win 1.2 units
I don’t see how this doesn’t go over. The Hornets don’t play defense, they’re off a back to back, even worse. Scary Terry only played 19 min last night so he should bring some juice/speed for Charlotte, while the Kings are back in-rhythm in a comfy spot at home where they can blow anyone out. I don’t see how Charlotte, a team I can’t play on right now, can keep up. They’re too undisciplined right now.
Bucks -1 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pels are playing some sloppy basketball right now, committing 57 fouls in their last 2 games. They can’t do that against the Bucks, who draw the 2nd most fouls in the NBA (over 18 per game) and will continuously drive to the basket at will on you. The Pelicans are a great team but they’re slumping right now and the Bucks will take pride in showing little brother how to play proper basketball tonight. Love Giannis to win battles against Zion, too.
 

Leans:

Cavs -6: Jazz on a back to back tomorrow but CLE has some big lookahead games this week. CLE is the better team, by far, and I like how they matchup. They’re also 11-4-1 ATS at home. Lookaheads have me off it.
Blazers -7.5: Everyone’s out for OKC but this could be one of those games where weird shit happens. They’re still at home and just beat Memphis with a shallow roster, so I’m off it.

NBA Premium Note

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

The NBA continues to be really insane and I’m just not willing to put everyone’s money on the line this often anymore. I’ll be splitting my NBA season into two parts, Oct-Dec and then Jan-June, knowing that the second half will be way less ridiculous.

For those on a terminal premium package, I’ll extend your subscription for two weeks. For the next two weeks, I’ll always give out leans but my NBA plays will be sparse until January.
Got a pregnancy appt. with my wife this morning so any plays/leans this Monday will be delayed. Thanks all,
Chris

College Football 2022 Bowls December 19th – 23rd – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Monday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall -12.5 O/U 40.5 

Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Brooks Stadium — Conway, S.C.

  • UConn:  Motivation – High – They finally got to a bowl but it’s fun to party in Myrtle Beach.
  • Marshall: Motivation – Medium Low – Bad opponent and might go out the night before.
  • Home Field – None
  • Charles Huff, Marshall – 0-1 ATS in Bowl Games.
  • Jim Mora Jr, UCONN – 2-2 ATS in Bowl Games
  • Marshall has a .87 yards per play advantage over the Huskies.
  • UCONN had a nice finish to their season winning 5 of their last 7 games including Boston College and Liberty.
  • Marshall’s defense ranks 2nd in success rate and number 1 in defensive EPA per play.
  • I have Marshall -11 so no play but a slight lean to UCONN.

Tuesday, Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan +4 O/U 54

Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, Idaho

  • San Jose State:  Motivation – Low – They go to Boise all the time and probably was robbed or at least assaulted while they were there.
  • Eastern Michigan:  Medium Low – These kids got totally screwed.  Now they might drink to just block out the fact that they are in Boise Idaho.  (Kip)
  • Home Field:  None
  • Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan – 3-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • Brent Brennan, San Jose State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • I give San Jose credit for getting to a bowl game this year, but some of their wins are credit to the +12 turnovers ranking 5th in the nation in turnover ratio.
  • San Jose State has a +.82 yards per play advantage, but I would argue that the Eagles had the better finish to their season winning four of their last 5 games to San Jose State losing two out of their last three.
  • I have San Jose State -2 here so I think a small play on Eastern Michigan is warrented.
  • I played Eastern Michigan at +4.5 but I still like it over the 3.

Eastern Michigan +4 – 1.5 stars

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty +5 O/U 54

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, Fla.

  • Toledo:  Motivation – Medium Low – They won the Mac and now it’s time to party.
  • Liberty: Motivation – Medium – This team lost their coach but they at least do get a very good one coming in.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Jason Candle, Toledo – 1-4 ATS in bowl games which is pretty bad.
  • Liberty lost Hugh Freeze to Auburn, but they know that they can look forward to Jamey Chadwell.
  • SOS is pretty equal at 128 for Toledo and 121 for Liberty.
  • Toledo has a .27 net yards per play advantage.
  • Toledo is a sloppy team ranking 116th in turnover ratio at -8 to Liberty at -3.
  • Both defenses are pretty solid here ranking top 10 in success rate and top 21 in EPA.
  • Barring any setbacks, I  could see this going under, but I also like Liberty some and I have this game a Pickem.

Under 54 points – 2 stars and Liberty +5 – 1 stars

Wednesday, Dec. 21

New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky +4.5 O/U 56

Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.

  • South Alabama:  Motivation – High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.
  • Western Kentucky:  Motivation – Medium – Decent matchup on a disappointing season.
  • Home Field:  South Alabama some at 260 miles way.
  • Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky – 1-1-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • SOS pretty close with South Alabama at 129th and Western Kentucky at 11th.
  • Western Kentucky has a .34 net yards per play advantage here, but the best unit on the field is South Alabama’s defense ranking 16th in success rate and 12th in defensive EPA par play.
  • My power ratings align with the market here, but I am honestly not sure why?  South Alabama has looked great this year while Western Kentucky has disappointed.
  • The Sun belt is better than Conference USA and Western Kentucky’s quarterback has been wishy washy with this bowl game.

South Alabama -4.5 – 2 stars

Thursday, Dec. 22

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor -4.5 O/U 50

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, Texas

  • Air Force: Motivation – High – Get to play a power 5.
  • Baylor:  Motivation – Medium – Good coach in Aranda.
  • Home Field:  Baylor is only 108 miles away!
  • Troy Calhoun, Air Force – 7-4
  • Dave Aranda, Baylor – 1-0
  • There is a massive strength of schedule discrepancy here with Baylor at 15th and Air force at 116th.
  • Baylor has a .34 net yards per play advantage over Air Force.
  • I like how Baylor has three weeks to prepare for the option attack.
  • I have Baylor -7.75

Baylor -4.5 – 2 stars

Friday, Dec. 23

Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest -1 O/U 60.5

Start Time: TBD

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.

  • Wake Forest:  Motivation – Medium – They probably wanted bigger and better things but at least they go on vacation.
  • Missouri: Motivation – Medium High – This team accomplished a lot this year compared to others.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
  • Dave Clawson, Wake Forest – 3-5 ATS in bowl games.
  • Missouri will be without their best WR in Dominic Lovett who had over twice the yards than the second best in the team.
  • This is basically Wake’s offense ranking 26th in success rate against Missouri’s defense ranking 20th in success rate.   Missouri though does give up a lot of explosive plays ranking 126th in the nation.
  • Missouri had the harder strength of schedule here ranking 29th to Wake Forest at 59th.
  • Missouri has a .15 net yard per play advantage.
  • Small lean to Wake Forest.

Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana +6.5 O/U 58

Start Time: TBD

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Independence Stadium — Shreveport, La.

  • Houston: Motivation – Medium – Not the season that they hoped for.
  • Louisiana:  Motivation – Medium High – They step up slightly in class.
  • Home Field:  None – Same distance for both schools around 250 miles away.
  • Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
  • Dana Holgorsen, Houston – 2-7 ATS in bowl games.
  • Louisiana
    • QB Ben Wooldridge (Injury)
    • RB Terrence Williams (Injury)
    • WR Michael Jefferson (Opt-out)
  • Ben Wooldridge was knocked out with two games left and Michael Jefferson is Louisiana’s best WR.
  • Looks like Houston QB Clayton Tune will play in the game which is huge.
  • Louisiana has been Jeckyl and Hyde this year losing to Louisiana Monroe and beating Marshall and Georgia Southern.
  • This game is Clayton Tune’s last opportunity to impress and go out with a bang.
  • Houston has a .66 net yards per play advantage.
  • Houston has had the harder SOS ranking 68th to Louisiana ranking 102.
  • I have Houston -10 with the injury and opt outs, but I really find it hard to trust Dana Holgorsen in bowl games so I’ll make my play small.

Houston -7 – 1.5 stars

NBA Premiums, 12.18

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

This is the time of year that you can play on some Sunday NBA games, as teams need to start taking their seasons more seriously. January and beyond will be even more predictable and I can’t fookin wait.

We only seem to lose by BS lately. The Cavs faced Dallas without Luka and still couldn’t cover -4? The line moved to -8.5! The Wizards led against the Clippers for nearly the ENTIRE contest, and then they don’t cover +6.5? Unreal.
Anywho, onto more NBA and l expect the ball to bounce our way more today:
Pacers win (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is telling us to bet on Indiana. The Knicks have won 5 straight road games and finally get to head back home for a big game Tuesday night against Golden State. They’re probably exhausted, while the Pacers were able to get home before the weekend started and prepare for a big win. Sometimes you just have to follow the sportsbooks’ clues and this feels like one of those situations.
Nets/Pistons under 230 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is dropping for good reason. This is an uninteresting game for Brooklyn but they’ve been playing great basketball and, again, a lot of that is because of some stellar defensive effort lately. If they care, they should incredibly limit Detroit. If they don’t care, they won’t push the pace or be as efficient on offense. Either way, I like an under here. Detroit is due for negative regression of offense, too. I have it at 223.
Hornets/Nuggets 1H O120.5 (-112), to win 2 units
I’ll avoid the full game in case it’s a blowout and the score slows down, as we tend to see in many of these contests, but I don’t see how this isn’t a hyper-paced, super high-scoring affair. Denver is all about offense and Charlotte, even after their coach put them on blast, STILL showed how little they care about playing defense. Both fast paced teams and with LaMelo back, the Hornets run much faster.
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