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NBA Opening Week Plays, 10.18 and 10.19

By
Chris R. Farley
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Opening Night, October 18
76ers/Celtics over 214 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season – Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They’ll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust.
Warriors 1Q -2 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Just a 1 unit play since it’s the first game of the season and that creates more volatility, but Lebron can be predictably overconfident in these spots and I don’t think that’s going to work against the defending champs. Draymond will play for Golden State and the Russ/Beverly combo looks like it’ll be a real show; one that should create some real inefficiencies immediately for the Lakers. If they’re going to be good this year, it won’t be on opening night, and it won’t be in the opening quarter. I like the Warriors to ransack the Lakers early– this probably isn’t out as most books yet but look for it as we get closer to Tuesday.
October 19
Heat 1H -3 or less, to win 1 unit
The Bulls won’t start off as hot this year, in my opinion, while the Heat are already getting discredited and underestimated by NBA “experts.” Miami is at home and we’ve seen Chicago crawl back into these games– I’d rather take a 1st half line on a Heat team that’s just waiting to bounce on a softie like Chicago.
Hawks -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks won’t have to be that impressive to win by double digits here, in my opinion. The Rockets are one of the least talented teams in the NBA since they lost Christian Wood and I see their defense being considerably better this season.
Mavericks +4.5 (110), to win 1.5 units
This line is crazy, if you ask me. Even at home, there are all kinds of sell-signs on the Suns’ right now. The debacle with their owner, they’re trying to trade a key piece in Jae Crowder, Ayton seems like he’s barely interested in playing basketball. No thanks. I love the addition of Christian Wood for Dallas and I think the Mavericks are quietly building one of the most effective lineups in the NBA. They bested Phoenix in the postseason and that wasn’t a fluke.

Podcast 68 – 22 – With Brian Edwards – NFL Week 6 Plays – College Football Week 7 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards is back to break down some serious college football games for week 7!  First, Kiev talks about NFL week 6 by breaking down almost every game on the slate with some leans and FREE PLAYS!  Then, Brian comes on and the guys talk about what to look for when betting college football mid-season.  Next, Brian and Kiev @OBKiev get into six massive games with some leans and more free plays for college football week 7!  After that, Brian and Kiev talk a little more NFL and preview a massive UFC 280 coming next weekend.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp money movement from the week.  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Alabama vs Tennessee – Penn State vs Michigan – USC vs Utah and more!

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Week 7 CFB Early Best Bets

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 4-3-1, +1.25u Week 6, all eyes are ahead to Week 7!

I currently have 3 plays locked in for this Week 7 slate but will follow up with more plays in another post tomorrow. I’ll more than likely add more on Friday night/Saturday morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Baylor -3.5 @ West Virginia–Thursday 6 PM CT

I released this on Tuesday night and made a complementary video on YouTube for my analysis.

*CFB(1u): Memphis/East Carolina OVER 58–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

With the pace each of these teams run at, the defensive issues on each side, as well as the history of these QB’s, I have a hard time seeing this game stay Under the total.

Memphis had last week’s game against Houston all but wrapped up before yielding a late comeback to the Cougars. Even so, they put up 33 points in that spot and worked around a brutal matchup facing arguably the best pass rushing unit in the American Athletic. QB Sean Henigan is over 8 Y/A throughout his young career; while the consistency hasn’t been where you’d want it to be this year, he is more than capable of taking advantage of this ECU defense. The Pirates might’ve only allowed 24 points last week to Tulane, but Michael Pratt really picked on their secondary to the tune of 9.6 Y/A. Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff put up a similar figure vs ECU earlier this season, and even Campbell’s QB threw for 7.9 Y/A. Memphis’s OL will have a much easier time protecting Henigan in this matchup which should allow the talented sophomore to shine.

East Carolina’s offense thrives off of balance. QB Holton Ahlers has already thrown for 16 TD’s on the young season, but it really starts with the ECU run game. Keaton Mitchell has had another phenomenal season, running for 7.6 YPC here in ‘22 after running for 6.5 YPC last season. Mitchell faced a tough matchup against Tulane last weekend(look at what the Green Wave did to Kansas State’s rushing attack), but this is the exact type of matchup where Mitchell makes his money. Memphis’s front 4 has been particularly concerning here in 2022; they’ve allowed offenses like Arkansas State and North Texas to have their way and get into the 30’s. Ahlers is a 5th year player that will thrive in this matchup once the run game is established.

*CFB(1u): Utah -3.5 vs USC–Saturday 7 PM CT

USC remains undefeated, but I still have some pretty big concerns about this team, mainly on the defensive side of the ball. Sentiment is low on Utah after they lost in the Rose Bowl last week, but that has not swayed how I view this matchup. Utah QB Cam Rising is a great fit for their system, holding a 4:1 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Ute. Still, Utah’s offense is predicated on establishing the ground game with Tavion Thomas. While the Utah rushing attack has taken a step back this year, I was encouraged to see Thomas stay above 5 YPC against UCLA last week. USC’s clear strength defensively is their pass rush, but I don’t think that will be showcased as well in this matchup as it would be facing an offense that features more slow developing plays. USC has routinely allowed inferior competition to establish the run, and I have little faith their secondary will consistently come out on top against an experienced Utah WR/TE core that has a lot of continuity within this offense.

There aren’t very many players in CFB with more upside than Caleb Williams. With that said, the sophomore is far from consistent. He played losing football in his only other true road test this season(44%, 5 Y/A at Oregon State) and didn’t play particularly well against a good Washington State defense last week(52%, 6.5 Y/A). This is clearly the toughest matchup of the season for him, and I think we see Williams make quite a few mistakes. USC RB Travis Dye is the best player week-in and week-out Lincoln Riley has right now, but ultimately, this game will fall on Williams’ arm. I know how much talent USC has out wide(although Jordan Addison is not 100% entering this matchup), but Utah’s strength of their defense is their secondary. This will also be the biggest test to date for USC’s OL.

Playing on the road in Salt Lake City is a challenge I believe a team of “ringers” like USC is not suited well for. This is truly a clash of styles matchup between a team built through the Transfer Portal and an experienced team that’s been developed in the same program for years. I’m not concerned as to how Utah’s 2 losses figure into this matchup; quite frankly, I think this is a game the Utes pull away in and win by 2 scores.

NFL Week 5 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The Broncos out-gained the Colts 375 to 306 yet lost 12-9.  Equal turnovers and just an ugly game right there.  All field goals.

The Lions were only outgained 364 to 312 yet lost 29-0.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone got them.

The Buccaneers outgained the Falcons 420 to 261 yet only won 21-15.  No turnovers just clunking out and taking big sacks hurt them.

Washington out-gained the Titans 385 to 241 yet lost 21-17.  Horrible red zone and a turnover killed the Commanders.

The Jaguars out-gained the Texans 422 to 248 yet lost 13-6.   A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad 4th down efficiency killed them.

The Rams out-gained the Cowboys 323 to 239 yet lost 22-10.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.

 

College Football Week 7 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let Down Spots:

  • Texas State at Troy after beating App State outright.
  • Texas could let down some vs Iowa State after smoking Oklahoma.

Get Up Spots:

  • Kentucky better get up vs Mississippi State after losing at home to South Carolina.
  • BYU and Arkansas both have to get up for each other.
  • Washington will get up vs Zona next week after 2 Ls in a row.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Not many, lots of bye weeks.

 

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, October 15th

By
Nick Hub
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After a 7-2 week in CFB, we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 29-19 60% (+$4,565) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 1 more game on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to Indiana to take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday night. The Cornhuskers enter with a 3-3 record (1-5 ATS) after pulling out a victory by 1 points at Rutgers last week while the Boilermakers enter with a better strength of schedule and are 4-2 (3-3 ATS) after beating Maryland last week 31-29. Nebraska has lost to Northwestern, Georgia Southern and were blown out by Oklahoma while Purdue has lost their 2 games to ranked Penn State and Syracuse but a combined 7 points. Both offenses are similar in success rate stats but the Nebraska defense ranks 107th in success rate while Purdue’s D ranks 13th. Nebraska runs the ball 56% of their plays and come in averaging 3.94 YPR (88th) but they will be up against the Boilermakers rush defense that gives up just 2.95 YPR (14th). On the other side, Purdue passes the football in 58.1% of their plays (9th most) and enter with 300.5 passing YPG (20th) and will have the honor of going against the Nebraska defense that gives up 263 passing yards per game (106th). Although Purdue has not beaten anyone this season by more than 10 (a ranked Minnesota squad), other than Indiana St, this shapes up to have the recipe of 2-3 touchdown victory for the Boilermakers. It is also worth mentioning that this will be the best defense that Nebraska will have faced all season to this point. Take Purdue -13.5

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

NHL Preview & Picks – October 12th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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What a great opening night! The NHL rolls on today with a six-game slate but features no real marquee matchups.

 

Game Previews:

Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals

  • The Bruins come into this season with a depleted roster. They’ll be without Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk tonight. Despite missing a few key pieces, the Bruins still have a deep team with some great goaltending. The Capitals also dealing with injury issues of their own. Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and Carl Hagelin are all out for tonight’s matchup. In net, Darcy Kuemper will make his debut as a member of the Washington Capitals.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens

  • The Leafs open up the season against a division rival. They’ve made a few changes during the off-season but mainly their goaltending. Toronto brought in Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov as replacements for Jack Campbell. Martin St. Louis will have his first full season as head coach of the Montreal Canadiens. Last year, he was able to provide some confidence for their young stars. Overall it’s a rebuilding year for the Habs as they look to fully evaluate all the talent they have on their roster.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Colorado Avalanche

  • The Av’s open their season against arguably the worst team in the NHL. Unless they have a severe Stanley Cup hangover, they should dominie Chicago tonight.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Carolina Hurricanes

  • The Blue Jackets made one of the biggest offseason moves landing Johnny Gaudreau. While this team did add an elite player maker, they still have a sub-par defensive unit. The Canes added a few pieces as well including veteran defenseman Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty. Carolina has built a roster that’s ready to make a push for the Stanley Cup while the Blue Jackets still have a few pieces to go.

 

Official Picks:

  • Boston Bruins/ Washington Capitals Under 6.0 (+100) – Caesars/ BetMGM
    • Risk 0.50 to win 0.50 Units

I think we see a low-scoring affair between these depleted rosters. The Bruins are going with Swayman while the Capitals will have Kuemper in net. Both of these goaltenders were great last year ranking inside the top 23 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Taylor Hall and T.J Oshie are also both game-time decisions that could limit each team’s offensive production. Last year, the Bruins and Capitals both ranked inside the top 13 in goals against. While two of their three meetings last year did go over, I believe it’s a different story tonight.

 

Leans:

  • Colorado Avalanche 1P -0.5 (-105) – PointsBet/ Caesars
    • Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
  • Seattle Kraken (+108) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.27 Units

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Mitchell Marner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
    • He went over this number in all four of their matchups against the Canadiens last season. Montreal also allowed the 28th most shots on goal to right-wingers last year.
  • Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
    • He went over this number in two of their three matchups against the Canucks last season. Vancouver also allowed the 25th most shots on goal to Centers last year.
  • Patrick Laine over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
    • He went over this number in two of their four matchups against the Hurricanes last season. With the addition of Johnny Gaudreau on his line, they should be able to create even more scoring opportunities. Laine is also on their top Power Play which should have several opportunities tonight as Carolina had the 10th most penalty minutes as a team last year.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NBA Preseason Play, 10.12

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

We’re 2-0 in preseason bets hey hey heyyyyyy!

Also, baseball, I still hate you. I have a personal parlay on every home favorite winning besides the Braves today (so Astros/Yankees/Dodgers), but it’s not an official premium pick and if you choose to trail, do it lightly. I’m just using bonus credits.
Here’s our preseason play:
Hornets +8.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
The Hornets are 0-3 in the preseason and therefore have slightly more incentive to play harder tonight. We saw it in our Magic play yesterday, and 8.5 is just way too many points for an exhibition game. Also, this figures that Philly is feeling good and playing well in the preseason (SOFT, YAWN), but it doesn’t mean much of anything. If the young talent on Charlotte punches back and punches early, the Sixers will probably take their collective feet off the gas. After all, IT’S THE PRESEASON. Let’s make it 3-0!

College Football Week 6 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Nevada out-gained Colorado State 358 to 253 yet lost 17-14.  They won the turnover battle as well but just had very bad field position and red zone efficiency.

Kansas out-gained TCU 540 to 452 yet lost 38-31.  Equal turnovers and just horrible tackling got Kansas.   They also had some bs calls go against them.

Texas Tech out-gained Oklahoma State 527 to 434 yet lost 41-31.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams hurt them.

Northern Illinois yards were mainly garbage.

Central Michigan out-gained Ball State 340 to 250 yet lost 17-16.  Equal turnovers and terrible red zone efficiency hurt the Chippewas.

Miami out-gained North Carolina 538 to 470 yet lost 27-24.  Equal turnovers but bad 3rd and 4th down efficiency hurt Miami.   Field position was bad.

Washington out-gained Arizona State 458 to 397 yet lost 45-38.   Equal turnovers, but bad red zone efficiency hurt the Huskies.

Appalachian State’s yards were garbage after falling way behind to Texas State.

FIU’s yards were garbage vs UCONN.

Kansas State out-gained Iowa State 388 to 276 yet only won 10-9.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency hurt them.

USC only out-gained Washington State 369 to 316 yet won 30-14.   Poor officiating and 5 nasty sacks taken by the Cougs hurt them.   Bad 3rd down efficiency as well.

Florida State out-gained NC State 387 to 307 yet lost 19-17.  A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.

 

 

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