I bring an MLB record of 160-147-6, +5.97u into tonight and will be sticking with 1 play to kick off the week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(+105) vs Rangers–8:40 PM CT
Mariners SP Robbie Ray has been phenomenal at T-Mobile Park this season, bringing a 2.73 ERA and 0.95 WHIP into tonight’s start. For as good as the Rangers have handled lefties at home, that has simply not translated to their road matchups. Since August 1st, Texas holds a measly 63 wRC+ vs lefties on the road, good for 26th in the league over that span.
The Rangers will use Jesus Tinoco as their opener before leaving the bulk of the work to Tyson Miller. Miller has thrown just 6 career innings at the big league level; in AAA this year, he looked anything but impressive(4.52 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9). This Mariners offense can be inconsistent, but they have proven to be plenty capable of taking advantage of minor league arms like this.
Not only do the Mariners hold a significant starting pitching advantage, but by nature of having the 2nd best bullpen in baseball that is off a day of rest, they will also hold a massive edge in the later innings. Considering the clear mismatch on the mound, I don’t believe we should be getting this at plus-money.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev talks about the good, the bad, and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 5! Finally, Kiev and D-Nasty get into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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49ers vs Denver +1.5 O/U 40.5
These two teams are almost familiar with each other being that Russell Wilson has faced Kyle Shanahan quite a few times already. Russell is 4-0 since 2019 against the 49ers himself and 15-3 since 2014. The thing that isn’t familiar in this situation is a freshman coach in Nathanial Hackett going against a darn good NFL coach in Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco lost Trey Lance last week to a season ending injury, but Jimmy G is the better quarterback by a good amount. I had to upgrade the 49ers two points in my power ratings due to this change. Last year, Jimmy G ranked 4th in quarterback EPA plus completion percentage over expectation. On the Broncos side, it is clear to see that Russell Wilson is an upgrade over what they had last year, but it isn’t enough early in the season to trust that him and his new team is fluid. Denver is really banged up at wide receiver right now, and other than Trey Lance, the 49ers look pretty healthy to me coming into this game. George Kittle should be back who is Jimmy G’s favorite pass catcher. I got +2 on San Francisco earlier in the week but I still like it under the three. Take the 9ers.
49ers -1.5 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs NY Jets +6 O/U 45.5
Do you like the stock market? Do you believe in buy low sell high? Well there isn’t a game that has more overreaction to the last two weeks than this one. The Bengals haven’t lead a game for the whole season as of yet, but the talent on this team is still tremendous. The Jets, even though they have won last week still have massive issue at the offensive line. New York can’t stop the run for the life of them no matter what they do. This NY Jets team should have lost to the Browns by 13 points last week while the Bengals should have won at least one of the last two games here in the NFL football season looking at their box scores. Take the Bungles
Huge Sunday card up with NFC WEST Game of the Year , Executive Level TIER 1 in the Battle of the Bays and Sunday night 100% MLB Game of the Month. NFL Sides 10-2 run. Saturday TOP Plays $$ big with Middle Tennessee and Baylor. NFL Play below
The NFL Play for Sunday is on the NYJ at 1:00 eastern. The Jets are taking 4-5 points here at home and are off a record-setting win coming back from 13 down with under 90 seconds left in a 31-30 road dog win in Cleveland. That win changes the whole mindset of this team now and puts them in a perfect system dating to 2006. We are playing on home dogs that scored 30 or more in a road dog win and were home in their prior game vs. an opponent like Cincy that is off a loss in week 10 or earlier games. There have been 5 home dogs that qualified, and each won outright.The Host in the series has covered 8 of 10, and the Jets are 5-0 to the spread in the series at home and pulled off a massive upset 34-31 last year as a 12-point dog here against the Bengals. The Bengals are now 0-2 after falling short in Dallas, and 0-2 road favorites have not done well historically. In fact, the Bengals are 1-14 to the spread in the first 4 games of a season off a loss with revenge against a .500 or better opponent. Look for the Jets at the very least to get the cover here. On Sunday Rob has another huge card up led by his Members only plays See us on facebook/twitter to jump on, For the NFL Comp play. Take the Jets. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
Week 3 is among us already! We are still settling in trying to find out each team’s true identity. That does not come quick in this league and still very important to stick to your process and trust your instincts. No knee jerk reactions here after week 2. Dialed back in and have drawn up 2 plays I really like for Sunday.
Current 2022 NFL Record: 14-11 +2.57 Units
Min -6 -110 1 Unit
The MNF woes continued for Kirk Cousins….bad, like really bad. I faded that angle last week and felt very confident doing so. Chose to focus more on Kirk’s record and production vs Philly, rather than the fact he can’t handle pondering a game all day which leads to the spotlight on him in primetime. It was a bad game all around for the Vikings. Defensively in the first half, a dropped wide open TD pass by Irv Smith, and tunnel visioned Kirk only throwing the ball to Darius Slay’s chest.
Now how do the Vikings and Cousins respond after that horrible week 2 performance? Looking back at all of the games Cousins lost on Monday night prior to last Monday (9), he has a record of 5-4 the following week. So obviously that is nothing too inspiring and doesn’t tell us anything one way or the other. Some people love trends and some people hate them. Last season was an up and down season for the Vikings… could never get a true pulse of the team. One consistent trend they had was when they lost on the road they were 4-0 the following week they had a home game. That includes 4-0 ATS. What really stands out to me is how big this line is.
This year Lions feel different, they are not the same pushover team and automatic win. Washington found that out last week. We saw the Lions hang in there with Philly week 1 and come storming back in the 4th Qtr to cover +4. Lions are a covering machine. The same Philly team who just completely handled Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Still this line is sitting at 6? That’s a pretty big line, we know lions cover well, and I feel Vegas is begging you to take it at +6. Lions have been one of the few fortunate teams to start out with both games at home. Now they have to travel for the first time this year and looking back at last season their first two games on the road did not fare well for them. One of them being a very similar situation going against a division rival in Green Bay who was blown out the week prior. The Lions lost by double digits. Yes, different years and different teams, but we can only go off of the information we have. This is Dan Campbells second season as HC for the Lions, maybe there’s a reason his Lions don’t travel well on the road in September or maybe that was a one off issue. However for us right now its information to give us a possible angle.
Before the season started a TON of handicappers and the public loved the Vikings. The new coach and a loaded roster in a division that feels more reachable with the lack of WR depth for Green Bay. We see one bad game by Kirk Cousins on MNF and we are going to abandon that take? I don’t think so. This is the game where Kirk shows up at home, bounces back, and proves us all right about this team and its talent. Vikings BLOW OUT the Lions and Goff comes back down to earth from last week.
Florida State comes into this one with some serious injury questions with their QB nicked up and potential losses on the OL. BC looks to have all but abandoned their run game under new OC John McNulty (former Notre Dame OC), which hasn’t helped their star QB Jurkovec or their defense thus far. BC’s offense comes into this one T-113th for points per game. BC will get some offense going at some point, but I don’t see it happening in this one. BC’s defense seems to be no slouch despite their offensive woes, they come in ranked 42nd in avg total yards allowed.
FSU’s defense appears to have significantly improved as they are 46th in avg yards allowed. FSU HC Mike Norvell seems to have pivoted from his reputation of a high paced offense to their success, now ranking only T-79th in plays per game. Although the total has been pushed down to the key number of 48, I still like the under.
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This game is absolutely disgusting and a beg you not to watch it. In saying that, I think it is worth betting on just due to the fact that Iowa is laying points. I honestly do not understand how Iowa should be laying points to any team with a slight pulse. This team is 125th in offensive EPA averaging 13.7 points per game. Spencer Petras is below 50% completion percentage, and that is counting games vs South Dakota State and Nevada. Rutgers isn’t exactly a power house themselves, but they did at least take care of Boston college on the road and they do rank 60th in EPA margin. SUNJ QB Evan Simon is 67% so far so I am not as worried with the other quarterbacks on injury. If Rutgers keeps the turnover margin close to equal, they could win this game outright.
Rutgers +7.5 – 3 stars
Arkansas vs Texas A&M -2.5 O/U 49
I honestly do not know how the hell Texas A&M is laying points against a good SEC team on a neutral field. Texas A&M was massively out-gained vs Miami at home last week, and they lost to Appalachian State. I know that they switched QBs, but I haven’t seen much offensive improvement with Max Johnson only throwing 54% thus far. Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson played this game last year and won it 20-10. He threw the rock for 2 TDs and 14 yards per attempt. Arkansas is 42nd in EPA margin while A&M is 81st. This is significant seeing that A&M’s SOS ranks 55th to Arkansas’s 37th. The Aggies could have lost to Miami last week at home had the Cane’s been slightly competent in the Red Zone. They were was also outgained by Miami in total yards. Jimbo won’t know what to do if he is playing from behind at any point in the game. Take the Hogs. Woo Pig Soooie!
