We have a Fantastic show for you today! Adam Chernoff @AdamChernoff from Covers.com comes on to break down a HUGE NFL week 4 slate of games! First, Kiev talks the agenda for next week while he is on Vacation in Playa Del Carmen. Next, Adam comes on and the guys talk about why totals are down so low as well as how to adjust for some big injuries. Then, Adam and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL slate of games with some leans and FREE PLAYS for NFL week 4! After that, Kiev gives out some college football plays for week 5! Finally, we get into College and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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An 0-1 start to the week brings my MLB record to 160-148-6, +4.97u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 -0.5(-110) vs Cardinals–6:40 PM CT
This is a far bigger pitching mismatch than this line would let on. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff has been utterly dominant at home this year(2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and held a sub-1.00 WHIP in both 2020 and 2021. The Cardinals have had a great second half offensively, but they’ve regressed a bit as of late. If you take away one 11-run performance in LA last weekend, the Red Birds have scored less than 2 runs/game over their last 8 games. When you consider they clinched the NL Central last night, it is unlikely they will throw out their “A” lineup in this matchup.
Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has had massive struggles on the road this year(4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), including in Milwaukee back in July(4 ER in 4 innings). The Brewers have 4 projected starters with a career OPS above 1.000 vs Quintana. I know Quintana’s season ERA at 3.03 looks very good, but a WHIP at 1.22 is proof that he has escaped his fair share of damage.
*MLB(1u): Angels -1.5(+110) vs Athletics–8:40 PM CT
Angels SP Michael Lorenzen has been atrocious on the road this year, but at Angel Stadium, he has fared quite well(3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). In 2 starts vs the A’s this year, Lorenzen has allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings. This A’s offense has been unbackable all season, and they present virtually no threat to slug off of Lorenzen in a role he’s settled into nicely.
Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is clearly in the big leagues out of necessity, not because he deserves to be. In 10 starts this year, Martinez holds an ugly 1.52 WHIP and is allowing an alarmingly high 2.2 HR/9. The Angels were a lineup to fade when Mike Trout was on the IL, but since he’s rejoined the club, this offense has shown signs of life. They scored 18 runs in Minnesota this weekend and followed that up with a 12-hit performance last night.
A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Angels might hold only modest bullpen numbers, but that still means they hold a sizable edge over an Oakland bullpen that ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP this year and has been an easy fade all season. If more stock were put into bullpen metrics and Lorenzen were being priced according to his home numbers, we wouldn’t be getting this at plus-money.
Missouri out-gained Auburn 311 to 217 yet lost 17-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible kicking on special teams killed them.
Toledo out-gained San Diego State 376 to 282 yet lost 17-14. A 4-1 turnover ratio and bad D hurt them at the end of the game.
North Texas out-gained Memphis 473 to 334 yet lost 44-34. A 3-1 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency killed them.
Georgia Tech out-gained UCF 452 to 333 yet lost 27-10. Equal turnovers but horrible Red zone and 4th down efficiency continues to kill Georgia Tech and that offense.
Arkansas State out-gained Old Dominion 397 to 330 yet lost 29-26. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Rutgers out-gained Iowa 361 to 277 yet lost 27-10. A 3-0 turnover ratio which 2 of them were scored and bad efficiency hurt them at home.
Utah State out-gained UNLV 421 to 320 yet lost 34-24. A 6-0 turnover ratio hurt bad.
Arkansas out-gained Texas A&M 415 to 343 yet lost 23-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio which was a 14 point swing KILLED THEM. KJ Jefferson fumbled on the A&M 3 yard line that went for 97 yards and a TD.
Tulane out-gained Southern Miss 451 to 253 yet lost 27-24. A 1-0 turnover ratio was all. Bad red zone efficiency hurt.
Northwestern out-gained Miami OH 364 to 216 yet lost 17-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone killed them.
FAU out-gained Purdue 419 to 354 yet lost 28-26. Equal turnovers and bad efficiency hurt them.
Oklahoma out-gained Kansas State 550 to 509 yet lost 41-34. Equal turnovers and bad 3rd down efficiency killed the Sooners 3 for 14.
Back for Week 5!! We are 18-15 (55%, +$360, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in for this weekend! Below is one of them. Best of luck if you tail!
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In their Conference USA debut this season, the UTSA Road Runners head to Tennessee to take on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. The Road Runners enters with a strength of schedule that ranks 55th in the nation after beating Texas Southern last week and playing the likes of Houston and Texas while the Blue Raiders are coming off their high of the year after beating a ranked Miami Hurricanes squad. However, they come in with a 111th ranked strength of schedule and have lost to James Madison 44-7 in their first game of the season. Although both teams have similar defense ratings, there is a clear advantage for UTSA on offense, ranking 15th in the nation in success rate and compiling 479 yards per game on 6.4 yards per play (MTS offensive success rate is 105th). The Mid Tennessee defense has been playing against offenses that average 5.1 yards per play and 340 total yards. This will be a step up and sets up as an excellent spot for the Road Runners in a let down spot for the Blue Raiders. Another advantage for the UTSA squad is their 3rd down conversation rate which is 50.98% and 14th in the country. Both teams will accumulate most of their yardage through the air and I am expecting the Road Runners to come out with a game plan to execute the edge on 10-20 yard plays (a stat which they rank 13th in NCAA in) and win by a touchdown. Take UTSA -4 for 0.5% of your bankroll.
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Believe it or not, our picks in CFB will improve, too. Looking at the last few weeks, this is no doubt one of the harder starts I’ve ever had at the beginning of a football season. Some putrid bad beats and variance haven’t helped.
Wouldn’t blame you if you faded me or went the other way. Still giving you picks, it’s my job.
CFB Week 5 (16-21-2, -10.36 units):
Lean, BYU -24
Just a huge line so I don’t want any part of it, but it sets up for a huge BYU win.
Kentucky +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Ole Miss hasn’t exactly faced the class of college football so far and their game against Tulsa, where they didn’t cover, feels like a red flag. Kentucky will start their backup but Kentucky’s defense and disciplined coaching can keep them in the game. Ole Miss’ pass defense is VERY questionable, too. Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky) takes over and a stingy defense keeps Kentucky close all game.
Illinois/Wisconsin under 43 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice response spot for the Badgers, at home, after a nice big slice of humble pie last week against the mighty Buckeyes. Illinois will struggle to score and Wisconsin needs this win to stay relevant. Testy game between two rivals — love the under.
JMU -22 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some may say this is a prime let-down spot after JMU’s huge win against Appalachian St but I disagree. Texas State is among the worst teams in college football; getting thrashed by Nevada proved that; and a team like JMU, who’s not heralded or used to the national attention, should only use that last win to elevate their motivation and focus. Their secondary will be a HUGE problem for Texas St. Laying the points with the home star.
Navy +14 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Two academies going at it and are we SURE that Air Force (my branch) is THAT much better than Navy? I’m not. Not impressed by their wins and Navy has played better as of late. Gotta go with the dog.
Kansas ML (+130), to win 1.3 units
Yea I just don’t think Iowa State is very good. Great spot for the Jayhawks to get a win at home and their offense has been very efficient.
Utah -10.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Oregon State shot their load last week, impressively holding back USC’s dynamic offense throughout the contest (until the 4th quarter, of course). That’s a huge let down for the Beavers last week and now they have to waltz into Salt Lake City to face a Utah team that’s far more impressive in defense and offensive production. Kyle Hunter likes the under in this one, but liked it more at 55 and 56. Just something to note.
Michigan State +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Another example of two teams who are heading into this contest feeling opposite ways. Michigan State got ransacked by Minnesota last weekend, no bueno, while MD actually looked impressive and comparable to the mighty Wolverines. This is a classic example of “no team is as good or as bad as one game,” and that’s especially true in a Big 10 rivalry.
USC 1Q -7 (-120), to win 1 unit
USC TT over 43.5 points (-110), to win 1 unit
Perfect setup for the Trojans to explode on offense after being held back and Arizona State, as an organization and especially on their defense, is a complete mess right now. USC dominates from start to finish and I love a blowout here. Lean USC -26 but I see more value in their TT over — AZ State will struggle to stop that in any regard.
Circa winning buddies Chris Farley and Steve Norman return to their usual shtick– going over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for their contest selections and weekend bets. Get ready for your Week 4 bets with this dynamic duo!
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The United States remains in control of the President’s Cup knocking off the International team 17.5 – 12.5. In terms of storylines, there were so many great moments. Tom Kim rose to the occasion and looks to become a budding superstar. Jordan Spieth took all five of his matches becoming the first person to do so since Jim Furyk in 2011. Max Homa also went undefeated winning all four of his matches. In terms of the bad, let’s talk about Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 struggled in his debut winning just half a point. In his singles match on Sunday, he lost to Sebastian Munoz, currently ranked 64th. The Canadians, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners, also struggled for the International team with them both failing to record a single point.
Now onto the Sanderson Farms, a tournament that recently became a full-status event. It’s been held at the Country Club of Jackson since 2014. Historically you need to go low if you want to win this as seen by Sam Burns last year posting a 22 under par. While it isn’t the best of fields, it does provide the opportunity to find some diamonds in the rough.
The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914 but was moved to its current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought and Mike Gogel. During this renovation, the course was lengthened and several greens were adjusted.
In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Starting in the 2019-20 season, this tournament was upgraded to a full status event and moved to late September.
72-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 266, Sam Burns (2021)
18-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 62, Roberto Castro (1st round, 2015).
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.
The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 223 yards. Last year, holes No. 7 and No. 10 were the only two to have a scoring average over par.
No. 10 is the longest of the Par 3’s playing just over 220 yards. Off the tee, there doesn’t appear to be many challenges. It’s slightly downhill with bunkers guarding the front right and left. However, the difficulty of this hole all depends on one thing, the pin placement.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest listed at 330 with the longest being No. 18, just over 500 yards.
No. 16 is the signature hole on this course. It’s a challenging par 4 that can be attacked in a variety of ways. Players chose to take it up the left or right side with each option having its advantages and disadvantages. On their approach shot, they’ll face a creek along the left side of the green with bunkers guarding the right. Last year, this was the most difficult Par 4 on the course with a scoring average of 4.163.
The four Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. Only one of these Par 5’s is over 600 yards (No. 5). In terms of difficulty, No. 5 is the hardest but still had a scoring average below par like the others.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Sam Burns (+1100), is the favorite for this week’s event and will look to defend his title from last season. This event sparked a career year for him where he would go on to win two other events. He’s the only American team member from the President’s Cup that’s in the field for this week. At Quail Hollow, he finished with only a point going 0-3-2 in his five matches. Outside of the President’s Cup, we last saw him compete at East Lake where he would finish 24th.
Sahith Theegala (+2000) is coming off a strong performance at the Fortinet Championship finishing T6. Last year in the Sanderson Farms Championship he finished T8.
Russel Henley (+2500) has only played in this event twice before finishing T14 in 2016 and T54 in 2019. His last start on Tour was at the BMW Championship where he finished T35 failing to qualify for East Lake.
JT Poston (+2700) had a great end of the year winning the John Deere Classic and finishing T35 or better in his last five starts. At the TOUR Championship, he played well finishing T15. He missed the cut at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship but finished T3 in 2020.
Denny McCarthy (+2900) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. His last start on Tour was at the Fortinet Championship where he finished T25.
Previous Winners in the field; Sam Burns (’21), Sebastian Munoz (’19), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Nick Taylor (’14), Scott Stallings (’12), and Chris Kirk (’11).
Notable Withdraws: Sebastian Munoz, Cameron Champ, Danny Lee
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Denny McCarthy (+2900): MC/T7/T18/6/T17
Henrik Norlander (+10000): T72/T39/MC/T4/T4
CT Pan (+15000): MC/T12/T11
William McGirt (+25000): T27/T5/T26/T7/T2/T25/MC/T17
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Sepp Straka (+5000): MC/MC/MC/MC
Brendon Todd (+6600): T72/T14/MC/MC/MC/MC
Kramer Hickok (+15000): MC/MC/MC/MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Sam Burns (-22)
Price: 16-1
2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
Price: 70-1
2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
Price: 66-1
2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
Price: 66-1
2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
Price: 125-1
Picks (Outrights):
Davis Riley (+4000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Thomas Detry (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Thomas Detry was able to secure his PGA Tour card with a top 25 finish in the Korn Ferry Tour standings last month. In his first Tour event of the season, he played well finishing T12 at the Fortinet Championship. Dating back to last season, he’s finished inside the top 40 in every PGA Tour event he competed in (five). He ranks well in the key categories this week and with his putting trending in the right direction, he has a shot.
Taylor Moore (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Harris English (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Trey Mullinax (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Trey Mullinax is an Alabama native and should have some support this week from the fans. In his first start this year, he struggled missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship. The main reason is his play on the green. Last year at the Country Club of Jackson, he finished T4. In terms of a course fit, Mullinax ranks near the top. The main issue for him has been his putting. While he’s struggled on most surfaces, he seems to enjoy the champion bermudagrass. He gained the most strokes putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship out of every tournament he played in last year. Given the improvements in his short game, if he can putt well again, he should do well.
Davis Thompson (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Joseph Bramlett (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Sam Ryder (+30000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.03 to win 9.00 Units
Sam Ryder is my long shot of the week. In terms of course history, he hasn’t faired well missing the cut in four of his five appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. However, last year was the first time he did make it and would go on to finish T51. Two weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, he missed the cut losing a lot of strokes around the green. Ryder can go low and does favor bermudagrass as seen in his strokes gained. In terms of his ability, the strong points of his game are his approach play, and putting. He’s also not long off the tee but is very accurate. If he’s able to figure out his tee game, I think he can compete given his iron and green play.
Just Missed: Taylor Montgomery (+3000), Scott Stallings (+3000)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sahith Theegala (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Sahith Theegala has been trending towards his first career PGA Tour victory for a while now. He nearly closed out the Travelers Championship and finished T6 last week at the Fortinet Championship. Theegala has played in the Sanderson Farms once before where he finished T8. He shot three sub-70 rounds before struggling on Sunday posting a 71. At that event, he gained strokes in every category besides Around the Green. In these “birdie-fest” events, Theegala is a great fit ranking 1st in Birdie or Better %.
Denny McCarthy (+180) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Denny McCarthy enters the Sanderson Farms Championship off a T25 finish at Silverado Resort & Spa (Fortinet Championship). He’s been playing well as of late finishing last year’s season with a T20 at the FedEx St Jude Championship and a T28 at the BMW Championship. In terms of course history, he’s a match as he’s finished inside the top-20 in each of his last four appearances here. He’s above average in terms of distance off the tee which gives him an advantage on this long course. If we look at his strokes gained stats at the Country Club of Jackson he’s done well in every category. His approach play can be worrisome at times with the larger greens he’s shown he can have success here.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Byeong-Hun An (+120) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Byeong-Hun An is coming off a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship gaining strokes in every category besides approach. He was on the PGA Tour in 2016 and struggled but after grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, An was able to secure his PGA Tour card for this year. An has competed at the Sanderson Farms Championship twice before, once in 2019 where he finished T4, and again in 2020 where he, unfortunately, missed the cut. Off the tee, he can pound the ball and while his accuracy is an issue, there’s room to miss on this course. His approach play can also be worry some at times but as we saw last week the rest of his game can make up for it. With some newfound momentum and course familiarity, he seems like a great fit.
Justin Lower (+125) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
After a T36 finish at the Wyndham Championship and some help from the LIV Tour defectors, he moved into the top-125 of the FedEx Cup Standings earning his fully exempt 2022-23 PGA Tour status. Lower started off the season strong with a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship. Starting the final round he had a 1-shot lead but played himself out of contention on Sunday. He gained strokes in every category specifically putting and off the tee. This will be his first time playing in this event but based off his play, he should be a great fit. As we know, good drives and putting are crucial this week, both areas he excels at. In his last start on Champion Bermudagrass (Wyndham Championship), Lower ranked 24th in the field in strokes gained putting. While he isn’t necessarily long off the tee, he makes up for it in accuracy. He’s finished inside the top-40 in five of his last six starts on Tour and looks to be poised to do so again here.
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 5.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
