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August 30th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

An 0-1 Monday brings my overall MLB record to 148-138-6, +3.67u. It’s been a suboptimal 4 day stretch, but I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to get us back on track! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 3.5(-120) vs Dodgers–6:10 PM CT

Dodgers SP Andrew Heaney has started out hot this year, but context matters. The heavy fly-ball lefty has fared well at Dodger Stadium, but he’s shown the same signs of leakiness on the road, allowing 1.7 HR/9 away from home this year. Considering he allowed 2 HR/9 in 2021, this is a theme I expect to continue. You might not think of Citi Field as a “hitters park”, but it will certainly play like one tonight. A wind of 13-14 mph expects to be blowing out by the time this one starts, giving hitters a significant edge. The Mets offense has been steady against lefties in this role(112 wRC+ since June 1st) and are equipped to take advantage of Heaney’s fly-ball nature in this spot.

The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in the game, but I was priced out of isolating this TT in the first 5 innings. The reality is that, if Heaney were being priced according to his true value on the road and his career numbers(4.55 ERA), this number would be at 4.5. I feel comfortable firing on this at a low number and reasonable price.

*MLB(1u): Pirates/Brewers OVER 9(-105)–7:10 PM CT

Brewers SP Jason Alexander is simply not a major-league caliber arm. The righty brings a 5.26 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into tonight’s start, is striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings, and is allowing an astounding 32% of balls to be hit 95+ mph. The Pirates are… the Pirates, but they have scored 5 runs in each of their past 2 ballgames. This is a AAA caliber arm that I expect them to get after.

Pirates SP Mitch Keller is the exact type of righty that the Brewers have crushed this season. Keller brings a 4.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP into tonight’s start and is in poor current form having allowed 9 ER across his last 11 innings. The Brewers had a well-documented poor start to the month of August, but this is an offense that’s turned a corner; they’ve scored nearly 6.5 runs/game over their last 5 games. You can’t trust Milwaukee against a good arm, but these are the spots they feast in and pad their numbers.

Milwaukee has needed to dig deep into their bullpen each of the past 2 nights. Closer Devon Williams will be unavailable today, which is a huge hit to a very shallow bullpen. Given Alexander doesn’t figure to go deep in this game, I absolutely want my money against these set of Milwaukee middle-relievers that have boggled down their bullpen numbers all year. The Pirates rank 27th in bullpen WHIP and are still without Closer David Bednar, making them a very easy unit to fade.

Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday EPL Power Play + RARE 6* MLB + U.S. Open tennis info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Tuesday Card has a Rare 6* Top rated MLB Play from a 28-1 system. We also have U.S. Open Tennis and SERIE A Soccer game of the Month. English League Comp Play below.

The Premier League Comp Play is on Chelsea at 2:45 eastern. Chelsea takes on South Hampton here today and they are coming off a nice 2-1 win over Leicester in a match where they played the whole second half with just 10 men on the pitch. Last time they played here in April they emerged with a 6-0 win and have now scored 3 or more in 3 of the last 4 against South Hampton. Chelsea has better current form and South Hampton has been a mess in the back field and have conceded at an alarming rate early on int his season. They are a prime candidate for relegation of they dont start to improve. That said we look for Chelsea to get a win here. On Tuesday we have a massive MLB Card led by a 6* Top rated Side backed with a 28-1 Power System. We have U.S Open Tennis which went 2-0 on Monday and the SERIE 1 Soccer Game of the Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the EPL Play. Go with Chelsea. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

U.S. Open Parlay Legs and Premium Notes

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Please read: Lately I’ve been receiving a lot of inquiries about my picks. That’s all fine and good, but please keep the following in mind:

  1. Just because you paid for my picks does not mean that you “must” take them. If you think I bet too many times on one team or you don’t like my unit allocation on a particular day, don’t trail me! Nothing requires you to do so and you’re your own human. Follow your own instincts before anyone else.
  2. You bought my picks because you’re confident in my ability. You should be, I’m pretty damn good at this and at my core I believe I’m sharper than those who claim to be the sharpest. I don’t care what anyone says in that regard, quite frankly. At the same time, there are absolutely no guarantees in gambling and it’s feasible that any handicapper could go on a long, long losing streak. That would suck for all of us, but there’s a pretense out there that handicappers are gods or some kind of sorcerers. That’s some looney shit; please don’t think that way of me.
  3. We WILL have losing weeks in the NFL and NBA this season. No doubt about it.
  4. Regardless, I wouldn’t post any picks unless I feel very confident about them.
K cool, love you, happy Tuesday, let’s move onto premium tennis parlay legs:
U.S. Open Parlay Legs, 8.30 (legs went 9/10 yesterday):
  • John Isner
  • Holger Rune
  • Hurburt Hurkacz
  • Denis Shapalov
  • Marie Bouzkova
  • Jelena Ostapenko
  • Jessica Pegula
  • Sloan Stephens
  • Belinda Bencic
  • Marta Kostyuk
  • Petra Martic
—
 
Previously Written Premiums:
WNBA Playoffs (1-9, -10.66 units):
 
Storm/Aces under 169.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Just way too high for a series that should be continually testy. The Aces can play better defense than what they’re showing and Sue Bird won’t just run over them in every game. Expect a battle and the Aces to win, wouldn’t make a bad parlay.
 
CFB Week 1 Picks (2-1-1, +.0.2 units)
 
Ball State/Tennessee under 68 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Volunteers probably should be a top 25 team but preseason rankings are usually terribly inaccurate. We lean towards Ball State (+34.5), that’s a huge line for Week 1 and this is a huge game for the Cardinals, who had a down year in 2021 at 6-7 but usually they’re one of the more formidable offenses in the MAC. This just isn’t a great matchup for them to regain confidence. The Volunteers’ defense is better than advertised, in our opinion, and I think Ball St., who still has plenty of kinks to figure out, won’t get on the scoreboard very much on Thursday. I’m on the under.
West Virginia +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has gone up and we think it’s gone up too much. JT Daniels, the transfer from GA and USC, has yet to reach his full potential but he’s in a good spot to prove he can hang with the big boys in Week 1 against a dominant Pitt defensive line. Fortunately the Mountaineers bring a veteran, highly-skilled offensive line and while they’ll likely make mistakes and blow some coverages on defense (they’re young and inexperienced), Pitt doesn’t have soaring offensive talent and I think this game is more evenly matched than people think. Taking the dog.
Purdue +3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Purdue ML (+140), to win 1.4 units
This is a BIG game at Purdue for both teams who are trending in opposite directions. Penn State has no momentum to speak of heading into this season. Hopes were high in 2021 but we saw them stumble badly down the stretch. Sometimes hype and belief can get you far, but we think the Nittany Lions showed their true selves at the end of last year’s campaign. Meanwhile Aidan O’Connell, the surging 6th year ultimate senior, returns as Purdue’s starting QB after a great year. He earned nearly 4,000 passing yards, threw for 28 TDs and only 11 INTs, he’s a good decision maker, and Purdue’s offense is bound to get more potent with Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy joining the mix and enough talent to keep Brohm’s complex, high-octane offense in gear. I think it’ll be too much for Penn State, who just doesn’t have elite talent on offense and a defense that largely depended on turnovers last year. This is the Boilermakers’ game to lose.
 
Notre Dame +15 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Notre Dame +17.5 (-105),  to win 1.5 units
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.

Podcast 55 – 22 – Huge Circa Sports Weekend Recap – College Football Week 0 Recap and Play – Fantasy Football Running Back Share

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!   Kiev O’Neil is back after the amazing Circa Weekend put on by Derek Stevens and the gang at Circa Sports.   First, we recap the weekend and and some college football week 0.  Next, we give out a college football week 1 play that we feel is off past a key number.  Then, D-Nasty is back to talk about some fantasy football running back shares that should help you for your fantasy football draft coming up!  Want to ask us a question for our Monday mailbag or get some help capping a game?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com or DM us on twitter @TheOddsBreakers.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

August 29th MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

I bring an MLB record of 148-137-6, +4.72u into the new week. I’m rolling with 1 play for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Padres/Giants F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–8:45 PM CT

Giants SP Carlos Rodon is enjoying his 2nd straight Cy-Young caliber season, and he has pitched particularly great at Oracle Park(1.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Rodon is striking out over 11.5 batters/9 all while allowing just 0.55 HR/9. The Padres have massively underperformed expectations offensively since the Trade Deadline; while they were able to take advantage of some poor Royals pitching this weekend, I’m not going to expect them to step up well in this matchup.  

The Giants mashed righties in San Francisco last year, but that simply has not translated into 2022. Not only is Brandon Belt on the IL, but Luis Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, and Evan Longoria are all questionable for tonight’s game. Even with those guys, the Giants hold a measly 88 wRC+ in this role since June 1st. Padres SP Mike Clevinger has been steady for the Padres this year(3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and is coming off a start where he allowed just 3 baserunners over the course of 6 innings. Clevinger is a guy that is used to pitching deep into the season from his days in Cleveland, and this is simply a more favorable matchup than many perceive.

CFB Week 1 Premiums and More

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hi All! It’s damn good to be back, although I still feel kinda shitty after Vegas. To be expected, though – 100 degree sun, very little sleep over 72 hours, and a cocktail of fun substances will do that! #NoRegrets.

But there’s nothing like being back at home! We had a decent day in CFB, although Hawaii was really disappointing. I didn’t know that everyone on the Rainbow Warriors was 5’8″ 170 pounds, I mean Jesus. Vanderbilt looked like a bunch of monsters in comparison. We knew there would be a talent disparity, but not one that was that prominent.
We’re mostly done with every other sport other than the NFL, NBA, and CFB. Throughout the US Open, I’ll include parlay legs that I like every day, and of course I’ll handicap UFC when there’s value. Onto premiums!
WNBA Playoffs (1-9, -10.66 units):
 
Storm/Aces under 169.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Just way too high for a series that should be continually testy. The Aces can play better defense than what they’re showing and Sue Bird won’t just run over them in every game. Expect a battle and the Aces to win, wouldn’t make a bad parlay.
 
CFB Week 1 Picks (2-1-1, +.0.2 units)
 
Ball State/Tennessee under 68 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Volunteers probably should be a top 25 team but preseason rankings are usually terribly inaccurate. We lean towards Ball State (+34.5), that’s a huge line for Week 1 and this is a huge game for the Cardinals, who had a down year in 2021 at 6-7 but usually they’re one of the more formidable offenses in the MAC. This just isn’t a great matchup for them to regain confidence. The Volunteers’ defense is better than advertised, in our opinion, and I think Ball St., who still has plenty of kinks to figure out, won’t get on the scoreboard very much on Thursday. I’m on the under.
West Virginia +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has gone up and we think it’s gone up too much. JT Daniels, the transfer from GA and USC, has yet to reach his full potential but he’s in a good spot to prove he can hang with the big boys in Week 1 against a dominant Pitt defensive line. Fortunately the Mountaineers bring a veteran, highly-skilled offensive line and while they’ll likely make mistakes and blow some coverages on defense (they’re young and inexperienced), Pitt doesn’t have soaring offensive talent and I think this game is more evenly matched than people think. Taking the dog.
Purdue +3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Purdue ML (+140), to win 1.4 units
This is a BIG game at Purdue for both teams who are trending in opposite directions. Penn State has no momentum to speak of heading into this season. Hopes were high in 2021 but we saw them stumble badly down the stretch. Sometimes hype and belief can get you far, but we think the Nittany Lions showed their true selves at the end of last year’s campaign. Meanwhile Aidan O’Connell, the surging 6th year ultimate senior, returns as Purdue’s starting QB after a great year. He earned nearly 4,000 passing yards, threw for 28 TDs and only 11 INTs, he’s a good decision maker, and Purdue’s offense is bound to get more potent with Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy joining the mix and enough talent to keep Brohm’s complex, high-octane offense in gear. I think it’ll be too much for Penn State, who just doesn’t have elite talent on offense and a defense that largely depended on turnovers last year. This is the Boilermakers’ game to lose.
 
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units
Notre Dame +17.5 (-105), +1.5 units
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
 
Tennis (U.S. Open Parlay Legs), 8.29
  • Carolina Garcia
  • Matteo Berrettini
  • Maria Sakkari
  • Bianca Andreescu
  • Anna Kalinskaya
  • Andy Murray
  • Tommy Paul
  • Alexander Bublik
  • Alex de Minaur
  • Roberto Bautista-Agut

The Deeper Dive with Michael Fordham– Scott Frost Does It AGAIN, Other Week 0 Reactions, Michigan QB Competition

By
Michael Fordham
-

On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael hits on:

  • Nebraska/Northwestern Fallout + Scott Frost’s Future
  • Other Week 0 CFB Reactions
  • Jim Harbaugh mishandling his QB competition

All of Michael’s Information: https://linktr.ee/fordhamsportsgambling

August 28th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

I started the CFB season out with a 1.5u best bet winner on Illinois! However, I dropped both MLB plays last night, bringing my MLB record to 148-136-5, +5.92u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close the weekend out strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Angels TT UNDER 3.5(-120) @ Blue Jays–12:37 PM CT

*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 ML(-125) vs Braves– 6:08 PM CT

Write-ups return tomorrow… enjoy your Sunday!

Rob V: Sunday WNBA Totals play + BIG Sunday Card info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Sunday card has a Platinum Supreme NFLX Total late afternoon and the MLB Game of the Month headlining a powerful card. WNBA Totals play below

The WNBA Totals play is on the Over 170 in the Seattle at Las Vegas game at 4:00 eastern. These two have played some wild ones. The last 2 have yielded over 190 and 8 of 11 in the series have gone over/ In WNBA Playoff games Road  teams like Seattle that are off a home win scoring 90 or more are 3 of 3 over vs a team that scored 90 or more. Very short sample here . However with these two lighting it up of late. This looks like another high scoring game as Seattle is on a 7-0 over runs and 6 of 7 on the road of late. The Aces are 23 of 34 over at home and 4-0 over with 3+ rest. Play this one over. On Sunday Rob has another biog card up and led by the MLB Game of the Month, the NFLX Platinum Supreme total and soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue the hot run. For the WNBA Comp play. Go over the the total in the Storm vs Aces game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Vegas

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hi All!

Probably should have better communicated that I’d be in Vegas until Sunday – expect the next premium email Monday, no new picks to add and like we saw in NFL last night, there’s no reason to be more preseason.
The final “rest” before the football season for me! Enjoy everyone!
Overall a winning day in WNBA, albeit a frustrating win since the Sun couldn’t muster much of a scoring output. Onto the next, added another CFB play and WNBA play.

 
WNBA Playoffs (2-10, -9.80 units): 
(Sunday)
Aces -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice spot for the Aces here, after a ton of rest and an easy first series win against Phoenix, to lay the hammer down on Seattle. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home to Seattle this year and they’ve won by margin in both cases. The Storm are a solid enough team but Vegas, primed in a 5-game series to start off dominant, should be focused and on top of their game. It helps that they haven’t had to travel for some time. We’ll look to play back on Seattle when the series moves to the Pacific Northwest.
 
NFL Preseason Week 3 (15-6, +11 units):
 
—–
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
 
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
 

FAU -7 (-110), to win 1 unit

We disagree with this line movement but we’ll capitalize on the opportunity. FAU, from our purview, has an advantage on both offense and defense in this one. Last year they trounced Charlotte 38-9 as 6 point road favorites and I don’t think there’s enough change to claim that this result should be any different. FAU can move the ball and their secondary should still be significantly better than Charlotte’s. Take FAU with confidence.
 
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units

Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
 
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
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