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Saratoga & Churchill Downs Weekend Preview & Picks – August 13th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have some great weekend racing at Saratoga Race Course and Churchill Downs. I’ll break down the top races at each track and offer my best bets.

 

Race Information:

  • Name: Saratoga Special Stakes
  • Track:  Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
  • Event Grade: Grade II
  • Race: 4
  • Post Time: 2:47 PM
  • Length: 6 1/2 Furlongs
  • Purse: $200,000
  • Division: Colts | Two Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

 

Field:

Post Position  Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Super Chow 2/C 120 8-1
2 Damon’s Mound 2/C 120 7-5
3 Valenzan Day 2/C 120 12-1
4 Gulfport 2/C 122 4-5
5 Owen’s Leap 2/C 120 8-1

 

Horse Preview:

(1) Super Chow, won his maiden at Gulfstream Park last month in a $55k MsW 5-furlong sprint. He sped to the front, set the pace, and pulled away down the stretch. Super Chow also posted a bullet workout on August 6th.

(2) Damon’s Mound, won his maiden at Churchill Downs last month in a $120k MsW 6 furlong sprint.

(3) Valenzan Day, has the most experience in the field having raced three times before. In his last start, he ran 9th in the G3 Sanford Stakes after losing his footing. Before that, he finished 3rd in the Tremont Stakes and won a MsW at Belmont.

(4) Gulfport, goes off as the morning line favorite after winning both of his starts. In his last out, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes setting the pace from the start and winning easily. His first start was a 5-furlong MsW at Churchill where he won easily again.

(5) Owen’s Leap, finished second to Gulfport in his last start in the Bashford Manor Stakes. In his only other start, he won a 5-furlong MsW at Churchill back in May.

 

Picks:

WIN: (4) GULFPORT

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 4/ 2, 5

 

Race Information:

  • Name: Fourstardave Handicap
  • Track:  Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I1
  • Race: 10
  • Post Time: 6:13 PM
  • Length: 1 Mile
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
  • Surface: Inner Turf
  • Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

 

Field:

Post Position  Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Casa Creed 6/H 122 5-2
2 Front Run the Fed 6/H 117 10-1
3 Regal Glory 6/M 119 6-5
4 Masen (GB) 4/G 123 2-1
5 Owen’s Leap 5/G 120 8-1

 

Picks:

WIN: (3) REGAL GLORY

Regal Glory will take on the boys in the Grade I Fourstardave Handicap. She’s coming off four straight wins, including two G1 victories in the Just a Game Stakes and Matriarch Stakes. She’s raced at Saratoga twice before winning both of those starts. Mansen, will be her main competition but this distance seems to be Regal Glory’s sweet spot.

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 3/ 1,4

 

Race Information:

  • Name: Beverly D. Stakes
  • Track:  Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY, USA)
  • Event Grade: Grade II
  • Race: 5
  • Post Time: 3:01 PM
  • Length: 1 1/8 Miles
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upwards
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

 

Field:

Post Position  Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Dalika (GER) 6/M 125 8-1
2 Family Way 5/M 125 3-1
3 Princess Grace 5/M 125 3-1
4 Rougir (FR) 4/F 125 2-1
5 Lily Pond (IRE) 3/F 120 5-2

 

Picks:

WIN: (2) FAMILY WAY

Family Way is coming off a second-place finish in the G1 New York Stakes losing to Bleecker Street. He was caught late after setting the pace for most of the race. This distance should suit him a little better.

EXACTA BOX: 2, 5

 

Race Information:

  • Name: Arlington Million Stakes
  • Track:  Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY, USA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 11
  • Post Time: 6:25 PM
  • Length: 1 1/8 Miles
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upwards
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

 

Field:

Post Position  Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Set Piece (GB) 6/G 125 4-1
2 Sacred Life (FR) 7/H 125 9-2
3 Field Pass 5/H 125 8-1
4 Smooth Like Straight 5/H 125 5-2
5 Megacity 7/G 125 15-1
6 Santin 4/C 125 3-1
7 Admission Office 7/G 125 10-1
8 Cavalry Charge 5/G 125 20-1
9 Cellist 4/G 125 15-1

 

Picks:

WIN: (6) SANTIN

EXACTA BOX: 6/ 1, 4

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

WNBA Free Picks – August 12

By
Kate Constable
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Both of our 1H plays on Wednesday hit so we’re now 6-1 in our last seven WNBA picks, up nearly +5 units! Only two regular-season games left with major playoff implications for a number of teams. Should be an interesting ending to the season!

Mercury ML +100

Lynx ML +108

At first glance, the numbers on the board today look totally off. You’re telling me that a team Phoenix team without Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith is only a 1-point underdog against a Dallas team that has already secured the sixth seed in this year’s playoffs. The same goes for Minnesota vs. Seattle. There is no way that Storm are only one point better than the Lynx, even on the road. But what we must take into account today is that both the Storm and Wings are safely in the playoffs. They are likely to rest some of their players and not take these game as seriously as their opponents.

The Mercury and Lynx on the other hand are both fighting for a playoff spot. There are currently four teams tied in the standings with the 7th and 8th seeds up for grabs. Phoenix, Minnesota, Atlanta, and New York are all fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive, so you can best believe we’re going to see them put their best effort forth tonight.

A win for the Mercury is going to be extra tough tonight because not only are they without Diana Taurasi who has been out with a quad injury, but they’re also going to be without Skylar Diggins-Smith for the remainder of the season . She missed their last game and it was officially announced yesterday that her contract has been suspended while she’s out for personal reasons. Phoenix has been a team all season that actually seems to play harder when Taurasi isn’t in the lineup, and you’ve got to imagine that is going to be the case tonight without both of their star players. Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Diamond DeShields have stepped up nicely over the last few games and they will be the key to a win tonight for the Mercury.

The Lynx are playing some great basketball right now, having won four of their last five. While they’ve lost all three meetings with Seattle this season, the games themselves have felt a lot closer than the final scores indicates. With added motivation behind Minnesota tonight, I think they finally get a win over Seattle and avoid the series sweep.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

August 12th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-1, +0.23u Thursday, I’m rolling with 3 plays looking to start the weekend off with a bang. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 -0.5(-115) vs Brewers–7:15 PM CT

Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery was a great pickup for St. Louis at the deadline. In his first start as a Red Bird, all Montgomery did was throw 5 shutout innings against the best offense in baseball, and his 1.08 WHIP on the year is impressive. Tonight, Montgomery gets a pretty favorable matchup facing a Brewers lineup that holds a poor 90 wRC+ on the road vs left-handed pitching this season. This is a Brewers offense that pads their stats by feasting on vulnerable arms; tonight simply doesn’t present that opportunity.

Brewers SP Eric Lauer is another talented lefty, but he has been far worse on the road this season. Coming into tonight, Lauer holds a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this year. To make matters worse, he now has to face a Cardinals offense that holds a 131 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark this year. This lineup has managed to plate 6 runs off of Lauer in their 2 matchups against him this season. 

*MLB(1u): Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 12(-110)–7:40 PM CT

It’s pretty easy to get on board with a Coors Field over, and that’s even more true when you consider each of these SP’s is making their 2nd straight start against this same opposing lineup.

I’ve faded Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela routinely this year, and for good reason. The righty holds a 1.68 WHIP and is allowing 12.9 hits per 9 innings. His WHIP at Coors Field is 1.72, and this is a much tougher matchup than people think. In the first 10 games here in the month of August, the DBacks have averaged over 5 runs/game. This is quite frankly an underrated lineup.

This is arguably a tougher spot for Diamondbacks SP Zach Davies given his unfamiliarity with Coors Field. While Davies has enjoyed a bounce back season, he is anything but a reliable arm 8 years into his career. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that scored 29 runs in their 3 game set vs the Cardinals and has been marvelous at home this season.

As a kicker, each of these bullpens absolutely stink. The Rockies rank 27th in bullpen WHIP, while the Arizona ‘pen ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP.

*MLB(1u): Angels TT UNDER 3.5(-110) vs Twins–8:38 PM CT

Twins SP Tyler Mahle is an arm that I believe will flourish now that he is out of Cincinnati. Mahle could never adjust to Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly conditions/ballpark, but he has shown signs of being a top-of-the-line arm in his road starts. Mahle held a 2.30 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road last year; this year, he holds a sub-1.00 WHIP on the road and is allowing just 0.7 HR/9. 

With Mike Trout still out, this Angels lineup is simply putrid. Since July 1st, this lineup holds a 75 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching(100 is league average). We have faded this lineup successfully a lot over the past month, and I expect that to continue tonight.

The Twins aren’t the most reliable bullpen, but they do come off an off day, so there should be no restrictions on their best arms. By my estimation, I think you could make an argument this number should be at 2.5.

One More Preseason Add

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Steelers -3 (-110), to win 1 unit
When you see an inflated line on a team, it’s usually a market indication that the team cares much more about this game. Taking that into account and the exceedingly better roster that Pittsburgh has — we’re betting it.

Premiums, 8.12

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Uhhhhh, yet ANOTHER winning day! LET’S GO! Onto Friday!

We’re 23-5 for +19.65 units the last 11 days………..

NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (2-1, +0.9 units):
Lions (EVEN), 1 unit
Buying the hype that Detroit will be better prepared, and they have a MUCH better roster than Atlanta overall.
 
49ers under 32.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Matt LaFleur has openly said that Aaron Rodgers may not play in the preseason again this year. He definitely won’t play in this one, so get ready for a lot of Jordan Love against a defense that’s primed to be top 5 this year and probably can’t wait to get in some reps. Couple that with Kyle Shanahan, who could care less about the preseason, and I like this game to be slow and defensive.
 
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.
WNBA Picks (27-17-1, +9.90 units):
 
Atlanta Dream (+125), to win 1.25 units
Dream need to secure a playoff spot and Liberty are due regression. ATL has been playing hard, close games against better competition.
Minnesota Lynx (+105), to win 1.05 units
Buying the Lynx, who have won 4 of their last 5. Their only recent loss? Seattle on Aug 3. Nice revenge spot, I’d say!
Phoenix Mercury (+115), to win 1.15 units
Gotta play the Mercury here. The Wings are locked into their spot in the playoffs and should be focused on resting players. Not sure why this line hasn’t changed.
CFL Week 10 Picks (16-11, +4.45 units):
BC Lions/Calgary Stampeders over 52.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Saturday)
This line came out high but I expect it to rise even more. BC is on a tear right now and I think the only way Calgary can win this game, and they NEED to win this game to stay in contention in the West, is by scoring at will. Keeping up with the explosive Lions is no easy feat, but these are two of the best offenses in CFL and they both have rather mediocre defenses. Love this to be a scoring competition.
Other Leans:
Braves (-150)
 
Mets -1.5 (+105)
 
Rockies -1.5 (+140)

MLB 8/11/22 Thirsty Thursday Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The Red Sox and Orioles battling on first base after a hit.

Baltimore vs Boston -116 O/U 10

Gonna keep this short and sweet cause the game stars soon.  Kremer 3.92 FIP for Baltimore vs Winckowski 5.12 FIP.   Baltimore is the better team with better everything right now.   They are the dog.

Baltimore +106 – 1.5 stars

August 11th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

We lost by the hook on each of yesterday’s plays, but I’m back with 2 more plays for today looking to flip the script. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Red Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(-130) vs Orioles–6:10 PM CT

The Red Sox have had their well-documented struggles as a team since July 1st, but I have seen progress at the plate as of late. Boston enters tonight having scored over 5 runs/game over their last 5 and were able to score 11 runs in their 2-game set against the Braves facing established righties like Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. Coming off the heels of that series, they should be able to dig in nicely in a much more favorable matchup.

Orioles SP Dean Kremer might hold a 3.43 ERA, but his 1.32 WHIP is much more reflective of the caliber of arm he truly is. Kremer’s fly-ball tendencies might play well in the newly expanded Camden Yards, but it is anything but suitable for a hitters-park like Fenway Park. Kremer is giving up over 1 hit per inning this season and also sees his WHIP jump up to 1.50 on the road. I see zero chance Kremer finishes the year with an ERA under 4.00(it could climb well above that); these are the types of matchups that are going to bite him. 

I couldn’t talk anybody off the F5 OVER, but I saw things in Josh Winckowski’s last start that signal he finally might be settling in after a rough start to the season. Still, he’s found no success at Fenway Park. I isolated the matchup I felt best about. 

*MLB(0.77u): Phillies -1.5(+130) vs Marlins–12:05 PM CT

Considering how stark the difference is in each of these teams’ current forms, offering a +130 to back Philadelphia in any way is unjustifiable.

The Phillies enter today’s game having won 7 straight games, including the first two games of this series. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson holds a 1.06 WHIP in his home ballpark and has enough skins on the wall to where I feel comfortable trusting him late in the season. The Phillies have also scored just under 7 runs/game on this current win streak. Considering they plated 4 runs off of Sandy Alcantara last night, it’s safe to say this offense is in dazzling current form.

On the other hand, the Marlins are 2-6 in the month of August and have scored 13 TOTAL runs in those 8 games. Since July 1st, they have been the 2nd worst offense in the league vs right-handed pitching. With 5 key bats still on the IL, why would expect things to change today? Marlins SP Edward Cabrera has looked good in a small sample this year, but over his career, Cabrera is walking nearly 6 batters per 9 innings; that worsens when he’s on the road. That might explain why a guy that talented has a 5.29 FIP and 1.38 WHIP so far in his young career.

I also give the Phillies a slight bullpen edge in the later innings. At the end of the day, +130 is unjustifiable.

Rob V: Thursday Tennis + N.L CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR + NFLX info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Thursday card has the 100% N.L. Central Division TOTAL of the YEAR headlining bases along with CFL Total of the Month and an Opening Week NFL Preseason Top Play. Tennis Comp below.

The Round 3 Canadian Open Tennis comp Play is on Alex De Minaur on the spread line at +3 games over N. Kyrgios at 3:00 eastern. Minaur is ranked 21st while Kyrgios is ranked 37 and he is playing lights out right now eliminating world #1 Medvedev, while amassing 8 wins over the past week and a half. He may bounce a bit here off the big u[set and Minaur has a solid serve and the footwork to run Kyrgios around. The 2 have never played before. This has the chance to go 3 sets so we will back Minaur on the spread line. On Thursday a powerful card is up and led by the N.L. Central total of the year, The CFL Total of the Month and a Powerful week 1 NFLX System play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the Tennis Play Go with De Minaur +3 games. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Premiums, 8.11

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

HEY – Can I get a LET’s FOOKIN GO!! Another undefeated night, and we’re now 20-4 overall the last 10 days for over 19 units. Which means we’re close to winning back every BS baseball pick we ever gave out this year, sweeeet! One pick added in WNBA and the NFL preseason games are finally here, let’s go!

DISCLAIMER: From today through Sunday, August 14, I will not provide any write-up or explanations for my picks. I’m on vacation, the first one since my wedding over a year ago, and I need to at least attempt to give myself a break from betting.Of course I can’t totally break away, that’s why I’m giving picks and I’m clearly addicted, but removing explanations lessens the time. Thank you.
 
WNBA Picks (26-17-1, +8.90 units):
 
Sky/LVA under 174 (-110), to win 1 unit
Taking a shot here, even though I don’t see much value on the board today. Tough to figure out motivation with the playoffs looming and one of these 4 teams could mail it in. But this sets up to be a pre-playoff battle that feels like a late in-playoff battle. The Sky’s defense was nowhere to be found 2 nights ago and now they could potentially lose the #1 spot. Contentious and testy between two elite teams, I think a lower scoring game is at hand.
CFL Week 10 Picks (16-10, +6.85 units):
 
6.5 Pt Teaser: 
Winnipeg -6.5 (from -13) + under 55 (from 48.5) (-120), to win 2 units (Thursday)
We’ll keep playing on Winnipeg until we see a lapse in their consistency. Even with some sloppiness at times, the Blue Bombers always find a way to put their foots on the gas and go way ahead on either offense, defense, or both. Big plays and smart football keeps this time high above the others in CFL, and Montreal is one of the lowliest teams they’ll face all year. Winnipeg’s stingy defense against Montreal will mean little scoring for the Alhouettes, and idk how motivated the Blue Bombers will be here. Could be a good chance to take things slow and get off the field without injury. Like them by margin but less than 13, and like this game under so let’s grab a teaser!
 
BC Lions/Calgary Stampeders over 52.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Saturday)
This line came out high but I expect it to rise even more. BC is on a tear right now and I think the only way Calgary can win this game, and they NEED to win this game to stay in contention in the West, is by scoring at will. Keeping up with the explosive Lions is no easy feat, but these are two of the best offenses in CFL and they both have rather mediocre defenses. Love this to be a scoring competition.
 
Other Leans (these are not official, just leans)
 
Guardians (-155)
 
Astros -1.5
 
Rockies (EVEN)
NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (0-1, -1.1 units):

Ravens -4 (-110, Preseason Week 1, Aug 11), to win 1.5 units
Well it’s pretty well-documented how good John Harbaugh is in the preseason. In case you didn’t know, he’s 40-12 (77%) straight up in exhibition games and in general, tends to care WAY more about his talent putting in effort and gaining momentum before the regular season begins. At -4, at home, this is a line that should only rise and in reality – take the Ravens.

Giants ML (+105), to win 0.50 units
As an avid reader of all things NY Giants, I can tell you one thing – this team is excited to get on the field. New HC Brian Daboll brings a new regime and new ideas to a NY Giants offense that desperately needs it. Billy Belichik, on the other hand, could probably care less about the game, save for a few good plays from the starters in 1 or 2 drives. Another good way to bet this game is by expecting the Pats to go up early and bet NYG live at a better moneyline price.
Packers/49ers under 32.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Matt LaFleur has openly said that Aaron Rodgers may not play in the preseason again this year. He definitely won’t play in this one, so get ready for a lot of Jordan Love against a defense that’s primed to be top 5 this year and probably can’t wait to get in some reps. Couple that with Kyle Shanahan, who could care less about the preseason, and I like this game to be slow and defensive.
 
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.

Podcast 49 – 22 – College Football 2022 Futures With ESPN’s Chris Fallica and WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels – UFC – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
College Football - Season Win totals - ESPN - Chris Fallica - Ralph Michaels - Wagertalk
www.theoddsbreakers.com

Time Captioned Below:  We have a Massive show for you today!   Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from ESPN, Ralph Michael @CalSportsLV, and Kiev O’Nei @OBKiev are back to preview the 2022 College football year with best bets and massive futures!  First, Kiev talks the Circa sports Millions & Survivor contests.  Next, Ralph and Chris some on, and the guys get right into another thing that they have mastered over the years, which is the top 5 finger foods to eat while watching a college football game.   Then, the guys get into how the transfer portal has changed the way that they handicap college football.  After that, we get into each conference with some season win totals and some HUGE future bets that they like and have played for the 2022 college football season.   Then, the guys give out some week 0 and week 1 early plays that they have made.   Finally, Kiev gets into a little UFC on ESPN for the weekend.   Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.  Have a wonderful week!

0 – 3:30 Intro and Circa Sports
3:31 – 18:45 Top 5 appatizer/Finger foods for watching college football
18:46 – 1:35:30 – College Football conference win totals and futures
1:35:31 – 1:48:00 – UFC on ESPN

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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