Coming off a 1-1, even night, I’m rolling with 2 more plays for today looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rays/Brewers F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–1:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff got off to a rough start this year, but since May 15th, Woodruff has allowed 2 ER or less in 9 of his 10 starts; he has allowed 1 ER or less in 6 of those 10 starts. Given Woodruff held a sub-1.00 WHIP in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, I think he’s a very trustworthy arm in this matchup. The Rays sit above .500 almost exclusively because of their pitching; this offense ranks 23rd in runs, 24th in HR’s, and holds a dead-on average 100 wRC+ on the road vs righties this season. I still think Woodruff has plenty of positive regression to come throughout the rest of the season, and I don’t view this as an overly tough matchup for the righty.
Is there a more underrated SP in baseball than Jeffrey Springs? All the Rays lefty has done this year is pitch to a 2.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and those numbers stay consistent on the road. This Brewers offense STINKS vs left-handed pitching, bringing an 89 wRC+ vs lefties this year into today’s matchup. Considering those numbers don’t improve at all in their home ballpark, I think Springs can make quick work of this Brew Crew order.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 5.5(+115) vs Cardinals–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies erupted for 16 runs in last night’s game and in general have been an offense I like backing at Coors Field. This is also a group that fares better against left-handed pitching; they lead the league with an .856 OPS vs lefties in their home ballpark this year. Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has had a resurgence this season, but just a few weeks ago, we saw him yield 6 ER in 5 innings at Coors Field. I also think Quintana’s 3.39 ERA is somewhat deceiving considering he holds a 1.23 WHIP in addition to a career ERA closer to 4.00. I like this matchup for the Rockies offense.
I’m not afraid to go against this Cardinals bullpen, especially considering they’ll have to get outs in this tough hitting environment. This unit still ranks outside of the top 10 in bullpen WHIP and is prone to its share of blowups nights.
The Sun gave us a big offensive performance last night to hit their team total over 83.5. We’re now 4-1 in our last five WNBA picks, +2.9 units!
Mercury 1H +2.5, 1 unit*
The Mercury and Lynx meet for the fourth and final time this season. Minnesota has won each of the previous three games, so Phoenix will be looking to avoid a season series sweep tonight. While the Mercury have home court advantage, where they’re 10-5 this season, they’ll be without their star player Diana Taurasi who is sidelined for the remainder of the regular season with a quad injury. While not having Taurasi is definitely a blow offensively, Phoenix is a much better team defensively without her on the floor. They only allow 92.0 points per 100 possessions with her off the floor compared to 106.0 with her on the floor. I also think the team plays harder and with more urgency when she’s not in the lineup. And I know she’s missed the last two games and they’ve only gone 1-1, but this is the first game since it was announced that she’ll be out for the remainder of the regular season.
This game also matters a ton in terms of the playoff race. Phoenix currently owns the 7th seed with three games remaining, including tonight. Their next two games are against the Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky, meaning tonight’s game is probably their best chance at a win between the three. The same thing goes for Minnesota. They’re currently sitting outside the playoff picture, but only by half a game. They too have a tough schedule to finish out the season with games against Seattle and Connecticut.
With so much riding on this game, I think we see two teams that come out motivated tonight. I’m not sure I trust the Mercury for a full 40 minutes, but I see no reason to think they won’t keep this one close in the first half. They’ve covered the first half spread in two of their three meetings with Minnesota and in each of their last five home games. Let’s make it six tonight!
Liberty 1H +2.5, 1 unit*
I also like this same play for the Liberty. And for many of the same reasons. They need every win they can get if they want a chance at making the playoffs. If they lose tonight, it’s going to be really tough for them to climb up the standings even with two games against the Dream to finish off the regular season.
New York lost to Dallas 86-77 on Monday after a terrible first quarter in which they trailed the Wings 24-13 heading into the second quarter and by six at the half. They can’t make that same mistake again if they want to win this one. Just like Phoenix, I think we get a motivated New York team right out of the gate. I lean to the Liberty +5 for the full game too but my only official play in this game will be New York 1H +2.5.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
A loss yesterday as the Dream turned out to be a nightmare, again, but we move on. Here’s your disclaimer that I shouted at you in CAPS:
DISCLAIMER:From today through Sunday, August 14, I will not provide any write-up or explanations for my picks. I’m on vacation, the first one since my wedding over a year ago, and I need to at least attempt to give myself a break from betting.Of course I can’t totally break away, that’s why I’m giving picks and I’m clearly addicted, but removing explanations lessens the time. Thank you.
WNBA Picks (23-17-1, +5.40 units):
Lynx -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
Lynx TT over 83.5 points (-110), to win 1.5 units
Halftime/Fulltime lead: Lynx (-112), to win 1 unit
CFL Week 10 Picks (16-10, +6.85 units):
6.5 Pt Teaser:
Winnipeg -6.5 (from -13) + under 55 (from 48.5) (-120), to win 2 units (Thursday)
We’ll keep playing on Winnipeg until we see a lapse in their consistency. Even with some sloppiness at times, the Blue Bombers always find a way to put their foots on the gas and go way ahead on either offense, defense, or both. Big plays and smart football keeps this time high above the others in CFL, and Montreal is one of the lowliest teams they’ll face all year. Winnipeg’s stingy defense against Montreal will mean little scoring for the Alhouettes, and idk how motivated the Blue Bombers will be here. Could be a good chance to take things slow and get off the field without injury. Like them by margin but less than 13, and like this game under so let’s grab a teaser!
BC Lions/Calgary Stampeders over 52.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Saturday)
This line came out high but I expect it to rise even more. BC is on a tear right now and I think the only way Calgary can win this game, and they NEED to win this game to stay in contention in the West, is by scoring at will. Keeping up with the explosive Lions is no easy feat, but these are two of the best offenses in CFL and they both have rather mediocre defenses. Love this to be a scoring competition.
Other Picks:
Mets – oh I don’t know… -5.5?
Rays/Brewers under 7.5
Yankees (-130)
NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (0-1, -1.1 units):
Ravens -4 (-110, Preseason Week 1, Aug 11), to win 1.5 units
Well it’s pretty well-documented how good John Harbaugh is in the preseason. In case you didn’t know, he’s 40-12 (77%) straight up in exhibition games and in general, tends to care WAY more about his talent putting in effort and gaining momentum before the regular season begins. At -4, at home, this is a line that should only rise and in reality – take the Ravens.
Giants ML (+105), to win 0.50 units
As an avid reader of all things NY Giants, I can tell you one thing – this team is excited to get on the field. New HC Brian Daboll brings a new regime and new ideas to a NY Giants offense that desperately needs it. Billy Belichik, on the other hand, could probably care less about the game, save for a few good plays from the starters in 1 or 2 drives. Another good way to bet this game is by expecting the Pats to go up early and bet NYG live at a better moneyline price.
Packers/49ers under 32.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Matt LaFleur has openly said that Aaron Rodgers may not play in the preseason again this year. He definitely won’t play in this one, so get ready for a lot of Jordan Love against a defense that’s primed to be top 5 this year and probably can’t wait to get in some reps. Couple that with Kyle Shanahan, who could care less about the preseason, and I like this game to be slow and defensive.
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.
What an ending to the FedExCup regular season as 20-year-old, Joohyung (Tom) Kim wins the Wyndham Championship. He began the tournament with a quadruple-bogey (8) on the first hole and came from behind on Sunday shooting a final round of 61 to finish -20. With that win, he became the second-youngest since 1932 to win a Tour event.
This week, the three-event 2022 FedExCup Playoffs start at TPC Southwind with the inaugural FedEx St. Jude Championship. This event replaces The Northern Trust but, TPC Southwind is no stranger to hosting PGA Tour events. A regular season event has been held here every year since 1989. However, this will be the first time that TPC Southwind plays host to a playoff event.
Scottie Scheffler begins in the lead and will look to win his first FedExCup Championship. I won’t get too much into the format now but if you’re unfamiliar with it, I break it down a little later in the article. With all that being said, let’s get into the first event and see if we can build off our great regular season.
Tournament Information:
Dates: August 11th, 2022 – August 14th, 2022
Location: Memphis, Tennessee, USA
Course: TPC Southwind
Course Type: Technical
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,243 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Champion bermudagrass .090”
Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .275”
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazards: 11 (In-Play 11 Holes)
Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
Purse: $15,000,000/ Winners share $2,700,000
FedExCup Points: 2,000
Field/ Cut: 125 Players| Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Course Scoring Average:
2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51
2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41
2019: 69.50 (-0.50), Rank 24 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Ron Prichard with consultants Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller (1988)
Renovation: PGA Tour re-design (2004), Bunker redesign (2020)
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 125 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 70 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
To see the current FedExCup Standings, you can click the following link.
Course/ Tournament History:
TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. For the past three years, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.
TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.
In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaces the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This will be the first time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.
72-Hole Record: 264, Brooks Koepka (2019), Abraham Ancer (2021), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Sam Burns (2021)
18-Hole Record: 61, Tom Lewis (3rd Rd, 2020), Bob Estes (1st Rd, 2001), Jay Delsing (4th Rd, 1993)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Southwind is a Par 70 that plays 7,243 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. It has some of the tightest fairways on Tour emphasizing accuracy off the tee rather than distance. The rough is extremely penal making an approach shot into these small bermudagrass greens even more difficult. It’s a course that you have to plot your way around holding back on certain holes and taking a more aggressive approach to others.
The four Par 3’s range between 162 yards and 195 yards. The two Par 3’s on the front nine, No. 4 and No. 8, both have scoring averages under par. However, the two Par 3’s on the back nine, No. 11 and No. 14, provide more of a challenge as they have scoring averages over par.
No. 11 is a smaller version of the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass, but with its own uniqueness. Despite its lack of distance, it provides players with a challenge as they’re hitting onto an island green. The green is fairly open with just one pot bunker guarding the front edge.
No. 14 is the signature Par 3, which requires players to carry their tee shot over water onto a severely undulated green.
The twelve par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Holes No. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, and 18 all have a scoring average over par.
No. 9 is a long dogleg to the right with a downhill second shot over a lake in front of the green. Players will aim at the right side of the fairway in hopes of making their approach shot that much easier. It’s one of the holes that reward the bombers off the tee.
No. 18 is a fantastic finishing hole that again, rewards distance off the tee. It’s a dogleg left where water comes into play every shot. The body of water runs parallel to the fairway throughout the entire hole, making a solid tee shot critical.
The two Par 5’s, No. 3 and No. 16 are both gettable in two. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.
No. 3 features a downhill tee shot that will give players an extra roll. Off the tee, players will try to position it along the left side of the fairway providing themselves a better angle into the green. Their approach shot is difficult as a lake guards the right side with a pair of bunkers on the left.
No. 16 is a dogleg left and the shorter of the two Par 5’s. As long as players are in the fairway off the tee, they’ll have a fairly easy shot into the green. A large bunker complex does surround the green and will come into play more if the pin is in the back left.
Featured Holes: 9, 11, 14, 18
HOLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
PAR
4
4
5
3
4
4
4
3
4
35
YARDAGE
434
401
579
196
485
445
482
171
457
3,650
HOLE
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IN
PAR
4
3
4
4
3
4
5
4
4
35
YARDAGE
465
162
406
472
205
395
530
505
453
3,593
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Scrambling
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
We have 121 Players in the field out of the possibly 125 that have qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Several LIV players who have qualified for the playoffs have a hearing Tuesday as they asked for an exemption in taking part in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Since its inception in 2007, only two have qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs each season (16 consecutive seasons), Matt Kuchar and Adam Scott.
Rory McIlroy (+1100), is the odds-on favorite this week to win at TPC Southwind. He’s played at this course five times over his career finishing inside the top 20 twice, in 2012 and 2019. In 2021, he finished T12 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The last time we saw Rory compete was at The Open Championship where he finished a disappointing 3rd. Rory last missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open in April. Since then, he’s played in eight events never finishing worse than T19.
Scottie Scheffler (+1400), has the most wins on Tour this season with four. Just like Rory, Scheffler hasn’t competed since The Open Championship where he finished T21. Scottie has played at TPC Southwind four times before finishing T15 and T14 in the past two years. Before that, he missed the cut in his debut here (2014) and finished T43 in 2018.
Patrick Cantlay (+1600), won the FedExCup Playoffs last season and will look to become just the third player to win it multiple times. He has a pretty solid course history here, finishing T12, T30, and T12 in his three editions. Cantlay hasn’t won an individual event on Tour this season as his lone win this season was with Xander Schauffele in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Despite the lack of wins, he’s been playing pretty well as of late making the cut in every event since the PGA Championship. In those six events, he’s never finished worse than T14.
Cam Smith (+1600), rumored to be joining the rival LIV Tour, has yet to confirm the move and will compete in the FedExCup Playoffs. We last saw Cam Smith come roaring back on Sunday at St. Andrews to win The Open Championship. That was his third victory of the season as he also won THE PLAYERS Championship and, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s played at TPC Southwind four times before with his best finish coming last year, T5. In his other three editions, he finished MC/ T12/ T59.
Xander Schauffele (+1800), is one of the hottest golfers on Tour right now. He won the Travelers Championship and then followed that up with a win at Genesis Scottish Open. Following those back-to-back victories, he finished T15 at The Open Championship, which is the last event he’s competed in. Xander has played at TPC Southwind four times before finishing T52/ T27/ T6/ T46.
Justin Thomas (+1800), hasn’t been great following his victory at the PGA Championship. In his five events since then, he’s missed the cut twice and has finished 3/ T37/ T53 in the other three events. Despite his inconsistency, he does have a great course history winning here in 2020. In his other two appearances at TPC Southwind, he finished T12 and T26.
Previous Winners in the field (@ TPC Southwind); Justin Thomas
Notable Withdraws: Tommy Fleetwood (Personal), Lanto Griffin (Injury), Daniel Berger (Injury), Nate Lashley (Injury),
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses For Courses:
Chez Reavie (+12500), has played at TPC Southwind seven times prior. During that span, he has only missed the cut once here, which was in his debut. In his six other appearances since then, he has never finished worse than T27. Full placements at TPC Southwind; MC/T27/T12/T4/T6/T27/T6.
Webb Simpson (+12500), has played at TPC Southwind eight times before. In his last five starts here, he has finished T3/MC/T2/T12/T15.
Other players who’ve had success here:
Rory McIlroy – (T29/T7/T4/T47/T12)
Matthew Fitzpatrick – (T4/T6/T57)
Hideki Matsuyama – (T43/T20/2)
Justin Thomas – (T12/1/T26)
Shane Lowry – (T30/T6/T23)
Seamus Power – (T27/T12)
Andrew Putnam – (MC/T2/T24)
Billy Horschel – (MC/MC/T72/T10/T6/T8/T4/T51/T9/T25/T17)
Previous Winners/ Scores (TPC Southwind):
2021: Abraham Ancer (-21) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
2020: Justin Thomas (-13) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
2017: Daniel Berger (-10) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 60-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – TPC Boston (The Northern Trust)
Price: 20-1
2019: Patrick Reed (-16) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 55-1
2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-18) – Ridgewood Country Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 100-1
2017: Dustin Johnson (-13) – Glen Oaks Club (The Northern Trust)
Price: 14-1
Picks (Outrights):
Patrick Cantlay (+1800) – Caesars
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Patrick Cantlay has been tending towards a win for about the past six weeks now. To be fair, he did win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Xander Schauffele. However, he hasn’t won an individual event on Tour this season. In his last six starts on Tour, he’s finished T3/T14/T13/T4/T8/T2. He also has a pretty solid course history here, finishing T12, T30, and T12 in his three editions.
In terms of recent form, there isn’t anyone better on Tour. He’s gained strokes in nearly every category in his last six starts. His approach play has been peaking gaining over a stroke in that category in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cantlay’s putting has also been out of this world gaining over a stroke on the green in five of his last six starts! As I mentioned before he hasn’t won yet but given his form, course history, and fit, he should be a contender.
Will Zalatoris (+2800) – Caesars
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Willy Z has three runner-up finishes this season and will look to capture his first victory on Tour at TPC Southwind. He’s played well in big events this year finishing 2nd in the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. In his last three starts, he’s finished T28/T20/T21. Zalatoris has played here once before finishing T8 last year.
The kryptonite for Zalatoris’ game has been his putting, ranking 120th in strokes gained. Despite that he’s been trending in the right direction, gaining strokes in three of his past five events. This course screams Willy Z given his ranks in approach, off the tee, and tee to green. The tiny green complexes suit his ball striking ability. If he can get hot with the flat stick he should be near the top of the leaderboard come late Sunday. Zalatoris will also have a new caddy on the bag this week in Joel Stock.
Sam Burns (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Just like Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns’ ball-striking should allow him to do well at TPC Southwind. He has three wins this season including the Sanderson Farms Championship, Valspar Championship, and the Charles Schwab Challenge. As of late, he’s struggled a bit finishing T42 in The Open Championship and T66 in the Genesis Scottish Open. To be fair, those were links-style courses that historically haven’t suited him. He’s played at TPC Southwind twice before missing the cut in 2015 and losing to Abraham Ancer in a playoff last season.
Sam Burns ranks highly in approach (13th), putting (10th), and tee to green (24th). He has the distance off the tee with his accuracy being inconsistent. As of late, he’s been lights out on the green gaining strokes in each of his last six events. His iron play has been consistent with his short game struggling a bit.
Last season when he finished 2nd here, he wasn’t nearly in as good of form. So with his game improving, I think he should have a great shot.
Sungjae Im (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
A lot of golf twitter was on Sungjae Im last week at the Wyndham Championship. He would go on to finish T2 behind “Tom” Kim. Im has now finished runner-up in his last two tournaments and returns to TPC Southwind, a course he’s played twice before. In 2020, he finished T35 and last year would finish T46.
Sungjae ranks highly in several strokes gained categories including off the tee (9th), around the green (7th), and tee to green (10th). His two areas of concern are his approach play and putting. However, in his last two starts, he’s gained strokes in both of those categories.
Billy Horschel (+5000) – Bet365
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Billy Horschel won the Memorial Tournament back in June and struggled in his two events following that victory, missing the cut in each. However, in his most recent two tournaments, he’s finished T21 and T27. Horschel has played at TPC Southwind eleven times before with the following results; MC/MC/T72/T10/T6/T8/T4/T51/T9/T25/T17.
While Billy Horschel isn’t known for having the best iron play, he does rank well in several other key categories. To be fair though, he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last six starts. He’s strong off the tee ranking 36th in strokes gained and while he’s not a bomber, he is extremely accurate. Horschel’s putting has always been one of his strong suits that allows him to compete each week. He also has a fondness for the Bermudagrass greens.
Just missed Outrights: Scottie Scheffler (+1500-FanDuel), Viktor Hovland (+4000-BetMGM)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.36 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+105) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick has been on a tear following his win at The Country Club in the U.S. Open. Following up that win, he finished T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open and T21 at The Open Championship. He ranks well in every strokes gained category with the one outlier being putting. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last four events. He’s only lost strokes in one category (Around the Green) in those four events.
He’s played at TPC Southwind three times before finishing T4/T6/T57. His elite ball-striking makes him a great fit for this course. Fitzpatrick’s accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely for his approach shots on these small greens.
When looking at other books, they have this number around -140/-150 so getting it at +105 is a great value.
Jordan Spieth (+150) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Jordan Spieth last played over-seas in The Open Championship finishing T8. The week before in the Genesis Scottish Open, he played well finishing T10. Historically Jordan’s downfall has been his putting however, in both of those events he gained strokes on the green. If we look at a larger sample size, he’s gained strokes putting in five of his last six events. In the one event (U.S. Open) where he lost strokes, he only lost -0.09.
Since his win at the RBC Heritage back in April, he’s only missed one cut at the Travelers Championship. Besides, that missed cut, he hasn’t finished worse than T37 with five top-20 finishes.
He’s played TPC Southwind four times before. He made his debut here way back in 2010, where he missed the cut. He didn’t play here for several years before making his return in 2019 where he finished T12. In 2020, he finished T30, and last season he finished T12 again.
The combination of his course history and improvement on the green makes me think he’ll do well here. We all know he’s great with his approach play, only losing strokes in that category in only three of his last eleven tournaments.
Just missed T20 Placements: Justin Thomas (+100 – Bet365)
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Max Homa (-105) – FanDuel
Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units
Before I get into my reasoning here, this is another value play. Most other books have him around -135/-140 for a top-40 finish this week.
Max Homa has played at TPC Southwind five times before without much success. In those five appearances, he finished T66/T85/T61/T52/T51. If we’re looking for positives in his course history, he has been trending in the right direction in his last three starts here.
To be honest the course history doesn’t concern me that much as we’ve seen Max take a major step forward with his game this season. In his 21 PGA Tour starts this season, he’s only missed the cut three times. During that span, he’s also won twice. Since his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has finished inside the top 40 in five of his last seven starts.
Homa ranks well in each of the key categories this week with the only outlier being his play around the green. If we look at a recent sample size of his short game, he’s gained strokes in that category in four of his last five tournaments.
Chez Reavie (+170) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Just like other plays this week, we’re getting a great number on Chez Reavie here. DraftKings has him at +110 for a T40 finish.
He won the Barracuda Championship last month and followed that up with a T49 finish at the 3M Open and T47 finish at the Wyndham Championship. In his last nine tournaments, he’s only missed the cut twice along with five top-40 finishes during that span.
Chez Reavie has played at TPC Southwind seven times prior. During that span, he has only missed the cut once here, which was in his debut. In his six other appearances since then, he has never finished worse than T27. Full placements at TPC Southwind; MC/T27/T12/T4/T6/T27/T6.
This is a guy that just loves this course as seen by his success here. I understand that we have a much stronger field than those tournaments but he fits the course mold extremely well and is in solid form. The concern for Reavie has always been his putting but he’s still done well here even when losing strokes on the green. In 2020, he lost over a stroke putting and still managed to finish T6. The last time he gained strokes putting at TPC Southwind was back in 2018.
Just missed T40 Placements: Adam Long (+185 – FanDuel)
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.05 Units
Total Risk on The FedEx St Jude Championship: 5.41 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Blue Jays -.5 F5 (-130)
The Toronto Blue Jays are throwing out their Ace, Alek Manoah, tonight vs. the Baltimore Orioles.
In the only time Manoah faced the O’s this season, he went six shutout innings, giving up one hit and striking out seven batters.
Going back to the 2021 season, Alek Manoah has faced Baltimore four times, striking out at least six batters in all four starts and giving up one or fewer earned runs in three of the four starts. It is safe to say Manoah may have Baltimore’s number.
On the other side, the Orioles are starting Kyle Bradish. Bradish has been less than stellar. Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.55 ERA in 2022.
In Kyle’s lone start against the Jays this season, he failed to make it out of the 5th inning, giving up five runs on nine hits.
I like the Jays to get out to an early lead and cash this one early for us.
Phillies -1.5 (-115)
I am fading Braxton Garrett strictly based on his splits. Garrett hasn’t pitched terribly this season, but he has the disadvantage tonight pitching against one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Phillies have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 games. Over the course of those 11 games, the Phillies have outscored their opponents by 29 runs.
Garrett has a hard time against right-handed bats. Of his five home runs given up, 4 have been to righties, and his ERA jumps from 3.57 (against lefties) to 4.05 (against righties). Left-handed opponents are hitting .164, but righties have an average of .262 against Garrett.
The Phillies are sending out seven right-handed bats tonight, which is not a great sign for Braxton Garrett.
Oh, and not to mention, Phillies’ starter Zach Wheeler should hold the Marlins lineup in check tonight. Since Wheeler’s 1-3 start to the 2022 season, he has gone 9-2 with a 2.14 ERA.
I’m not sure how the Brewers are favorites here. They’re 27-22 at home, but are on a downward spiral. They’ve only won 2 of their last 7 overall games and are 4-6 in their last 10. Those losses were against lower tier opponents as well (Red Sox, Pirates, and Reds). I think the Hader trade has gotten into their heads a little bit. You start to wonder if and when they can right the ship. They have now fallen 2 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and have fallen 1 game out of the final wild card spot.
Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 6 games against the Blue Jays and Tigers. The Tigers aren’t anything to write home about, but the Rays handled business taking 3 of 4 games in that series. They continue their road trip here as they try to chase down Toronto and hold on to the second wild card spot.
Tampa Bay is 14-8 on the run line as an away underdog. The Brewers are 17-27 as home favorites. Milwaukee is also 16-33 on the run line after a loss.
I don’t see the Brewers righting the ship here as they send out Peralta who holds a 7.00 ERA at home this year.
A 1-0, +1u Monday brought me back into the green overall for the MLB season! I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to add to that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) @ Orioles–6:05 PM CT
The Blue Jays get a very favorable matchup today facing off against Orioles SP Kyle Bradish. This is an arm they saw earlier this summer, pounding him for 9 hits and 5 ER in 4.1 innings. Overall, Bradish holds an ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.65 WHIP this season. When you consider he held a 1.42 WHIP in High-A back in 2019 and then a 1.44 WHIP in Triple-A last season, it’s clear Bradish is not suited for a big league rotation. Bradish is giving up over 11.5 hits per 9 innings and 1.92 HR/9, neither of which figure to bode well against this Blue Jays lineup.
Toronto hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard as of late, but they have recorded at least 10 hits in 4 of their last 5 games. Overall, the Jays hold a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road this season, making them a trustworthy back in this spot.
*MLB(1u): Marlins TT UNDER 2.5(+105) @ Phillies–6:05 PM CT
The stars have to align for me to play a TT Under 2.5, but I believe they do in this matchup.
Zack Wheeler is nothing short of incredible at Citizens Bank Park. He held a 0.87 WHIP at home last season, and those numbers have actually improved here in 2022(1.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP). Considering he threw 7 innings of 1 run ball in Atlanta last week, it’s safe to say Wheeler should have more than enough in the tank to mow down this feeble Marlins lineup.
With Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Brian Anderson, Avasail Garcia, and Jon Berti all on the injured list, this Marlins lineup is absolutely putrid. Since July 1st, the Marlins hold a brutal 74 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. They’ve also been held to 0-1 runs on 12 separate occasions since July 1st alone. Quite frankly, I think they’re clearly outmatched against an arm like Wheeler.
The Phillies’ bullpen is still not trustworthy as a whole, but considering I expect Wheeler to go very deep in this game, I’m willing to trust the back-end of this ‘pen considering they’re well-rested after Monday’s off day.
We’re 3-1 in our last four WNBA picks. Things should get interesting with this being the final week of the regular season and several teams vying for playoff position.
Sun TT O83.5, 1 unit*
Despite two recent losses to the Chicago Sky, the Sun have been playing great basketball as of late. Their offense has been clicking over the last five games, posting the 4th best offensive rating in the league over that period. They’re averaging 87 points over those last five games and even put up two 90-point performances in both losses to Chicago. Their team total for tonight’s game is 83.5. The Sun have gone over this total in eight of their last 11 games and I like them to go over it again tonight.
The Sparks have had their fair share of travel troubles this season and that continued earlier this week. Their flight back from D.C. on Sunday was delayed multiped times and then canceled altogether. According to a video that Nneka Ogwumike posted on Twitter, hotels in the area were full so only some players were able to get rooms for the night while the rest of the team was forced to sleep in the airport. Add that to the fact that the Sparks were going from the east coast to the west coast and over multiple time zones. I expect them to come into this one with tired legs which will result in a poor effort defensively.
The Sun should also be able to dominate the boards. They rank first in rebound percentage all season while the Sparks struggle on the boards, ranking last in that same category over the last five games. We should see plenty of second-chance opportunities for Connecticut.
Lastly, Los Angeles’ playoff hopes are nearly dead. They sit in the 11th seed coming into tonight’s game and have to face the Sun again on Thursday. If they get down big early, I could see their motivation fade pretty quickly. On the other hand, Connecticut sits just a game back from Vegas, giving them a chance to jump the Aces for the No. 2 seed. The motivation will be there for the Sun. Take their team total over 83.5.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
HUGE Tuesday card up with the MLB Game of the Week, an Undefeated WNBA Late night Power System, the SOCCER Total of the Month and Ladies Tennis. Comp play below
The Tuesday Canadian Open COMP Play is on Frances Tiafoe over Ben Bonzi at 3:30 eastern Tiafoe leads the series 2-0 with the latest encounter coming at the French Open where Tiafoe disposed on Bonzi in straight sets. Tiafoe just lost a few days ago in a very frustrating 3 set match Kyrgios. He is and has been building momentum for the US Open. Bonzi is aggressive and had played well at points during the year. However, he has exited in the first two rounds of his last 2 tournaments and to much lesser than what he will see here today. Look for Tiafoe to advance. On Tuesday another Power Card is up and led by the MLB Perfect System Game Of The Week, a WNBA Top play and Soccer Total of the Month. Monday card sweeps. See us at at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on More Damage on Tuesday. For the Tennis comp play. Go with Frances Tiafoe. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
How’s it going, people! Hopefully your answer is PHENOMENAL since we’re 17-3 for nearly +17 units in CFL and WNBA the last week. I appreciate many of you who went through a little trial and error with me this summer, but it feels like we finally discovered a better approach on how to stay active and profitable before the football season arrives. Bet MLB small, attack CFL and WNBA.
Don’t see much value in most of the WNBA games, unfortunately, but we added another NFL preseason bet in red. Onto another day, hopefully of winners!
WNBA Picks (23-16-1, +6.50 units):
Aces TT under 89,5 (-125), to win 1 unit
It’s very hard to trust Atlanta right now but they can hang onto their top 5 defense when they need to. And here’s the thing — they still have an outside chance at the final playoff seed. They’ve been shorthanded for a while now and LVA is fighting for the #1 seed and no doubt the better team, but the intensity of this pre-playoff moment should bring some testy defense from Atlanta. This line is a little too inflated for my liking.
CFL Week 10 Picks (16-10, +6.85 units):
6.5 Pt Teaser:
Winnipeg -6.5 (from -13) + under 55 (from 48.5) (-120), to win 2 units (Thursday)
We’ll keep playing on Winnipeg until we see a lapse in their consistency. Even with some sloppiness at times, the Blue Bombers always find a way to put their foots on the gas and go way ahead on either offense, defense, or both. Big plays and smart football keeps this time high above the others in CFL, and Montreal is one of the lowliest teams they’ll face all year. Winnipeg’s stingy defense against Montreal will mean little scoring for the Alhouettes, and idk how motivated the Blue Bombers will be here. Could be a good chance to take things slow and get off the field without injury. Like them by margin but less than 13, and like this game under so let’s grab a teaser!
BC Lions/Calgary Stampeders over 52.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Saturday)
This line came out high but I expect it to rise even more. BC is on a tear right now and I think the only way Calgary can win this game, and they NEED to win this game to stay in contention in the West, is by scoring at will. Keeping up with the explosive Lions is no easy feat, but these are two of the best offenses in CFL and they both have rather mediocre defenses. Love this to be a scoring competition.
Other Picks:
Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) Manoah vs. Bradish…
Astros -1.5 (+120) Urquidy is a winner and Houston needs a big win after the let-down in Cleveland. Good smash spot.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (0-1, -1.1 units):
Ravens -4 (-110, Preseason Week 1, Aug 11), to win 1.5 units
Well it’s pretty well-documented how good John Harbaugh is in the preseason. In case you didn’t know, he’s 40-12 (77%) straight up in exhibition games and in general, tends to care WAY more about his talent putting in effort and gaining momentum before the regular season begins. At -4, at home, this is a line that should only rise and in reality – take the Ravens.
Giants ML (+105), to win 0.50 units
As an avid reader of all things NY Giants, I can tell you one thing – this team is excited to get on the field. New HC Brian Daboll brings a new regime and new ideas to a NY Giants offense that desperately needs it. Billy Belichik, on the other hand, could probably care less about the game, save for a few good plays from the starters in 1 or 2 drives. Another good way to bet this game is by expecting the Pats to go up early and bet NYG live at a better moneyline price.
Packers/49ers under 32.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Matt LaFleur has openly said that Aaron Rodgers may not play in the preseason again this year. He definitely won’t play in this one, so get ready for a lot of Jordan Love against a defense that’s primed to be top 5 this year and probably can’t wait to get in some reps. Couple that with Kyle Shanahan, who could care less about the preseason, and I like this game to be slow and defensive.
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.
