A 1-2, -1.35u Friday brings my overall MLB record to 148-134-5, +8.22u. In addition to my Week 0 CFB Best Bet, I’ll be rolling with 2 MLB plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rangers TT OVER 3.5(-130) vs Tigers– 6:05 PM CT

The market still hasn’t caught up to the fact that the Rangers have been ELITE against left-handed pitching this summer. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold (by far) the highest wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark(171). Now, they’ll face somewhat of a lame duck in Tigers SP Eduardo Rodriguez. ERod’s 1.34 WHIP is a pretty accurate depiction of his inconsistency. In addition, this is just his 2nd start back off of the IL in what’s been an injury riddled season. His K/BB ratio has been cut in half from where it was last year, and he’s simply not an arm I’m afraid to go against. 

The Tigers bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this year, but 3.5 over the full game is simply the wrong number. In addition to the larger sample size, the Rangers have scored 23 runs over their past 2 games and are absolutely a lineup I want to back at the moment.

*MLB(1u): Twins F5 -0.5(+105) vs Giants–6:15 PM CT

There’s a strong possibility this game gets postponed, but if the weather passes I think we’re getting a lot of value here.

Twins SP Sonny Gray has been a steady arm for the Twins this year, bringing a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into tonight’s start. Allowing less than 1 HR/9 this year, I think Gray is in for a more favorable matchup than people would think. This Giants lineup has underperformed all season; since June 1st, they hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties on the road. They were shut out last night and are still without a key middle-of-the-order bat in Brandon Belt. While I do think this team could have one more run in them, I don’t see this being the matchup they reverse course.

Giants SP Alex Cobb is the perfect example of why you have to look at home/road splits. While Cobb has fared great at Oracle Park this year, he’s shown major red flags on the road each of the past 2 seasons. This season, Cobb holds a 5.65 ERA and 1.49 WHIP away from home and has seen his K numbers drop drastically. The Twins were really skidding at the plate on their recent road trip, but they returned back home last night and immediately plated 9 runs. In addition, they’ve been steady in this role over the course of the summer(115 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st).

There’s a lot of variance in the later innings of this matchup given the “boom-or-bust” nature of each of these bullpens. I will isolate the matchup I feel best about and keep this a F5 play.

A 3-0, +3.15u Thursday brings my MLB record to 147-132-5, +9.57u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Tigers– 7:05 PM CT

Unbeknownst to many, this Rangers offense has been elite in this role. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold a league-best 161 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They also plated 16 runs on Wednesday in Colorado and should feel confident facing Tigers SP Tyler Alexander. Alexander is a soft-throwing, “pitch to contact” lefty that has struggled on the road over the past 2 years. He allowed 1.6 HR/9 away from Comerica Park last year, and that has jumped up to 1.8 HR/9 this year to pair with his 1.46 road WHIP. Alexander’s style can be effective against a certain style of lineup, but I have little faith it translates well against an offense that has proven it can mash lefties at an elite clip.

Given the Tigers are coming off an off-day and have surprised me with their bullpen, I’ll isolate the F5 and key in on the matchup I want to take advantage of most.

*MLB(1u): Royals TT UNDER 3.5(-135) vs Padres–7:10 PM CT

You could make the argument this TT should be at 2.5. Joe Musgrove is a year-in, year-out All Star caliber arm that brings a brilliant 1.01 WHIP into tonight’s start. While he gets the luxury of pitching in San Diego, he has shown little-to-no dropoff on the road these past two years as a Padre. This is a favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that holds a rough 88 wRC+ vs righties since June 1st. KC also ranks near the bottom in both slugging% and HR’s hit, so I think Musgrove has a clear path to control this outing from start to finish.

Josh Hader has had well-publicized struggles in August since being acquired from Milwaukee, but the Padres still have a top-10 bullpen in baseball. Coming off an off-day, I can trust this fresh unit in what I perceive to be a very favorable matchup. The Padres have been skidding recently, but that rest almost solely on their offense.

*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 4.5(+105) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT

While the Yankees were a “play against” lineup for most of the month, they have had a great week; they swept the Mets earlier in the week and broke out last night with a 13-run performance against these A’s. Since June 1st, the Yanks hold the highest wRC+ in the league vs lefties on the road. Many people overlooked Giancarlo Stanton’s absence and the effect it had on this order. Since welcoming him back, they look like the same dangerous lineup we’ve seen for most of the season.

I think the love for Athletics SP JP Sears is extremely premature. While Sears has looked great here in his rookie campaign, this is just his 6th career big league start. I worry about how sustainable this early success is; Sears is allowing over 30% of balls to be hit above 95 mph, and he’s left an astounding 85% of runners on base. The strikeout rate he held at the minor league level has also failed to translate to the big league level. Even more of a red flag, Sears was traded by the Yankees just a month ago. If anybody has dirt on Sears and knows how to give him his “welcome to the big leagues” moment, it’s the Yankees.

The A’s have a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball and have been a “play against” unit all season. When you combine that with the youth of Sears and the Yankees current form(+ proven track record), the fact that we’re getting this at anything better than -120 is laughable.

My MLB record sits at 144-132-5, +6.42u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Guardians/Mariners UNDER 8(-115)– 3:10 PM CT

Mariners SP Marco Gonzales has had anything but a career-best year, but this is a spot where I believe he can command this game from start to finish. The soft-throwing lefty has pitched much better at home this year, and he’ll face a Guardians lineup that holds just an 85 wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. The Guardians have also hit the 2nd fewest HR’s in all of baseball; I believe Gonzalez’s “pitch to contact” nature will play nicely against this Cleveland lineup.

Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has had breakout 2022 season, bringing a sub-1.00 WHIP into this afternoon’s start. The young righty is no stranger to pitching on the road(14 of his 22 starts on the road this year), and this sets up as a favorable matchup. Since June 1st, the Mariners hold just an 89 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. Routinely, they have failed to step up in competition well in their tougher matchups. McKenzie’s one achilles heel is that he gives up more HR’s than you’d like, but the righty is also giving up just 6.4 hits per 9 innings.

These are 2 of the top 5 bullpens in the game. Each is deep, and aside from Paul Sewald of the Mariners, every key reliever will be available for each of these squad’s this afternoon.

*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+115) vs Twins–7:10 PM CT

Astros SP Luis Garcia has uncharacteristically struggled with allowing HR’s at Minute Maid Park this year, but he’s still a trustworthy arm in this role. Garcia held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home last year, and aside from the HR’s, his other numbers(K/9, BB/9) are seemingly identical to last year. He gets the luxury of facing a Twins lineup that is in abysmal current form; they have scored just 9 runs over this 5 game losing streak. Rocco Baldelli can have as many closed-door meetings as he wants, but the fact is his team is sliding.

Twins SP Chris Archer is an unreliable starter, specifically on the road. He’s walking nearly 5.5 batters per 9 innings and allowing 1.6 HR/9 in his road starts this year. Archer is also usually limited to 2 turns through the order, meaning he’ll hand over the reigns to a bullpen that ranks just 17th in bullpen WHIP this season. The Astros have seen righties well at home this summer(127 wRC+ at home since June 1st) and are plenty capable of taking advantage tonight.

Dusty Baker has managed his bullpen well in this series, as only Bryan Abreu figures to be unavailable tonight. This is a deep unit that holds a 3.01 ERA on the year; I think they’ll have a sizable advantage over Minnesota’s pen in the later innings.

*MLB(0.8u): Rays -1.5(+125) vs Angels–12:10 PM CT

Rays SP Drew Rasmussen has been nothing short of incredible at the Trop this year(1.99 ERA, 0.75 WHIP). Today, he gets the luxury of facing an Angels lineup that holds an abysmal 61 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. The Halos are in particularly bad current form, having lost 8 of their last 9 and scoring just 9 runs over their last 6 games. 

Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is the exact type of arm I’m looking to fade. His 3.14 ERA is quite deceiving considering he holds a 1.40 WHIP. Sandoval continually gets away with his control issues, but that’s something these numbers can’t be sustained over a full season. The Rays offense has not treated us well this year, but they have been undeniably good in this role. Since June 1st, Tampa holds a 142 wRC+ at home vs left-handed pitching. They’ve also won 6 of their last 7 games.

The Rays have a top 5 bullpen in the league, while LAA’s ‘pen can be described best as “boom-or-bust”. While the Rays used a lot of arms in last night’s win, none of those guys threw enough to where I think they’ll be unavailable this afternoon.