The MLB Comp play for Hump day is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern. The Mets fit a powerful 77% system bases on their last 2 wins scoring 5+ runs and the total at less than 8 in the last game of a series. They have Mad Max on the mound and he will be pumped for his first Subway Series start. He will oppose D. German who allowed 3 runs in 5 innings in his lone appearance this season. Scherzer has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 straight starts. The Mets have won 6 of 8 in the Subway Series and we will back them here tonight. Make it the Mets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Premiums, 7.27
Yea so, we’re done with baseball. There’s a little over a month left until the NFL starts, we have CFL, the WNBA, foreign basketball, UFC, and the NFL preseason to keep us afloat. It’s not worth the BS anymore, and it’s especially not worth the negative feedback loop it keeps sending us. We’ve literally won, consistently, across every single sport we bet that’s not Major League Baseball. Perhaps it’s time to simply take it out of my portfolio.
That’s something I’ll worry about next year. This year, I’m done-zo.
Another good day in the WNBA; let’s tackle some other stuff today and beyond.
WNBA Picks (tomorrow):
Storm/Sun over 160, (-110), to win 1 unit
The Storm just keep playing with their food and stumbling around since the break but make no mistake about it, they’re better than the Sun from beyond the arc and they’re very good at creating easy buckets. Ergo, they’ll have some advantages Thursday. The narrative of this game is obvious – the Storm will try to slow the game and assert themselves on defense, while the Sun will attempt to utilize the fast-break, as they do VERY well, and keep the game moving fast. Connecticut has one of the most potent offenses in the WNBA and this feels like a situation where the Storm will be chasing them all game while the Sun enjoy the comforts of their home arena. In a revenge spot for Seattle, I like their extra effort to keep the score climbing. The Sun -3 feels right, so we’ll play the over.
Mercury 1H ML (-120) to win 1 unit
Mercury -3 or less, to win 1 unit
We didn’t get the best number full game on the Mercury, but if it somehow goes back down to 3 or less, I’d take it. This line opened at -1.5 and almost immediately rose to -3.5, and I’m thinking most of that is because of Liz Cambage’s departure. Cambage is a dominant player when she’s thriving, which clearly she wasn’t, but her 6’8″ presence will be missed and the Mercury are in a great spot, at home, to take advantage.
Women’s EURO Semi Final (3:00pm EST):
France to win in Reg (+213), 1 unit to win 2.13 units
France comes into this semifinal with a little less fanfare — Germany knocked off its opponents by a whopping 9-0 goals leading up to this contest — but the reality is, France is the much better team. They’re considered #3 in the world and soccer experts have numerous starters of theirs in the world’s top 5 women soccer players. France dominated The Netherlands on both offense and defense in their previous game, earning 13 shots on goal, compared to only 1 for the Dutch.
CFL Picks (8-5, +3.95 units):
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
Free MLB Premium Pick with Analysis for Tuesday, July 26th
Hey Everyone! After a 2-0 Monday, we are onto a full MLB slate and have decided to give out 1 of our 4 Premium Plays for today! We are 68-53 (5.5% ROI, +$5530) in our last 121 #MLBPicks and look to add to it today!!
Get my Premium Packages HERE, including monthly all access, the rest of MLB season and College Football Early Bird Special and/or any of our handicappers here at the OddsBreakers!
PITTSBURGH PIRATES AT CHICAGO CUBS (first pitch 2:20 PM ET)
PIT righty Bryse Wilson owns a 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .333 BABIP and 4.08 xFIP in his last 3 starts. He also owns a 46.8 GB% and 1.46 GB/FB rate in road games this season. CHC righty Keegan Thompson has pitched better at home, owning a 2.84 ERA, .236 opponent avg, 0.18 HR/9 and 2.71 FIP this season. In his last 20.1 innings pitched, he has 20 strikeouts, has given up zero homeruns, owns a very high .381 BABIP and 2.63 FIP. In the past 14 days, the Bucs rank 28th in wOBA, 25th in K% and 28th in runs scored. The Cubbies rank 29th in strikeouts, 19th in homeruns hit and 22nd in ISO at home against right-handed pitching this season. As I write this, we are currently getting 1.6% CLV from our bet under 8.5 -103 has gone to 8.5 -110.
TAKE UNDER 8.5
Get my Premium Packages HERE, including monthly all access, the rest of MLB season and College Football Early Bird Special and/or any of our handicappers here at the OddsBreakers!
July 26th MLB Play
Coming off a 1-2 Sunday, my MLB record now sits at 111-103-4, +4.27u. I’m rolling with 1 play for tonight to kick off my week. To receive a text when I release my plays/write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 TT OVER 2.5(-135) vs Cardinals–6:07 PM CT
The Blue Jays offense has been among the best in the league in their home ballpark this year. Facing right-handed pitching at the Rogers Centre, the Jays rank 3rd in the league with a 122 wRC+. Tonight, they’ll get an extremely favorable matchup facing Andre Pallante of St. Louis.
Pallante might look good on the surface(3.34 ERA), but a WHIP at 1.46 is an incredibly strong indicator that Pallante is going to struggle as his sample size increases. Pallante is allowing over 1 hit per inning but has managed to leave 82.5% of runners on base. While Pallante is a heavy-ground ball pitcher, his BABIP is at .315; trouble clearly lies ahead for this young arm.
This is the wrong time for a vulnerable righty to face this Jays offense. Aside from their historic 28-run performance on Friday night in Boston, the Blue Jays also racked up 5 runs in the first inning of Sunday’s game facing a young righty arm. Now, they return back home to a role they’ve excelled in all year. I’ll trust Toronto’s offense early in this game.
WNBA Free Pick – July 26 Aces vs. Sky
Time for a free WNBA pick! We’re 1-2 here at The OddsBreakers after I faded my hometown team – the Chicago Sky – and they ended up covering against the Storm. Lesson learned not to bet against your favorite team, right? Wrong! We’re doing it again today.
Aces +3, 1 unit*
The Las Vegas Ace and Chicago Sky meet in the Windy City tonight for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship. For those of you that might not be familiar with the Commissioner’s Cup, it’s essentially the WNBA’s in-season tournament. Select games throughout the first half of the season are considered “Cup games” and the two teams from each conference with the best record in said games play for the championship. Each player on the winning team gets $30k while each player on the losing team gets $10k. An additional $5k is given to the MVP of the game. Needless to say, there is a lot at stake in tonight’s game.
While the prize money undoubtedly adds another layer of competitiveness, this game would have been competitive nonetheless. The Sky owns the league’s best record at 21-7 and the Aces are right behind them at 20-8. The season series between these teams is tied 1-1 with both teams winning on the road.
When I feel like a game is going to come down to the final few possessions, I always like to have the points in my back pocket. However, while I see that being the case in this game, I also think the Aces not only have what it takes to cover but could even win outright. Vegas’ offensive firepower is hard to match. They have two of the top-5 scorers in the WNBA right now in Kelsey Plum and A’ja Wilson. The Aces also own the best 3-point percentage in the league and Plum is the leader in 3-pointers made.
This is also a great revenge spot for the Aces after suffering a terrible loss to Chicago the last time they met. In that meeting, Vegas got off to an early 28-point lead before Chicago stormed back to complete the largest comeback in WNBA history. The Aces had a complete meltdown in the second half and the Sky went on to win 104-95. If there’s ever a perfect revenge spot, this is it.
Now, there’s definitely an argument to be made that Chicago is the better defensive team and a much deeper team. Both those things are true. But they’re coming off of a tough travel spot, having played a back-to-back with the second leg in New York and travel difficulties getting there. I could see them coming into this game a bit fatigued and not able to match Vegas’ offensive production for the full 40 minutes.
Take the points with the Aces and maybe even sprinkle a little on that ML.
Another free play coming for Thursday’s games, so stay tuned for more. In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
Premiums, 7.26
What’s up good people! Nice easy win in foreign basketball. Baseball predictably slapped us right in the face Monday after a few good days of + units. What else is new.
I know I got plenty of feedback to filter my plays more on a regular basis, but this won’t be the day I follow through with that. From my perspective, this is a rare day in MLB where I see a ton of value across the board, so I’ll have more plays than usual.
For those who wonder how to navigate a card like below, if that’s a concern of yours, that tells me you’re not betting the right way. Here’s what I mean:
- A 1 unit play should be 1% of your bankroll, ergo,
- If you don’t have enough units to bet every single play I put in today’s email, you’re betting (way) too much of your bankroll on a daily basis
- Sports betting is, despite what many commercial entities and twitter trolls will tell you, a LONG TERM game. Do not overly invest on any given day. Whether a capper’s record is sterling or shitty over 1 week or even 1 month doesn’t really matter- what do they do for you LONG TERM? We win, a lot, as you know.
- 3-5 unit plays are assigned, they’re just very rare and for good reason; why would I ask you to risk that much of your bankroll, 3-5%, on one play, unless I’m extremely confident? I wouldn’t.
That being said, if you don’t like betting my baseball picks, and who could blame you based on how rocky of a road it’s been, then don’t! No one’s ever forcing your hand, and if anything, you’re welcome to play opposite every pick I have since, at this point, that would have ended up in more profit. Either way, it’s still information!
One last note – we switched our over play on Ottawa/Toronto to 47 since I realize 45 or 45.5 was extremely hard to find. Okay – onto the picks:
MLB Pick (115-122-3, -17.18 units):
Rays/Orioles under 7.5 (-115), to win 1.15 units
Unfortunately this just moved to 7.5, it was 8, but I still like it. S. Watkins is on a tear of 1 run allowances or less and although he can get caught and exposed here and there, like he did the last time he faced Tampa, I expect a more crisp result today. Vengeance tends to cultivate better performance. McClanahan is simply a beast, enough said.
Cardinals (+180), to win 1.8 units
Whoa – there are a lot of reasons why this is lined wrong. Young Andre Pallante faces a huge challenge on the road against a rested Toronto outfit, sure, but he seems like a great fit for this matchup. High velocity rate, low HR allowance (0.90/9 innings), and a ton of confidence for a rookie. Jose Berrios is notably better at home (3.33 ERA, compared to a 7.15 ERA on the road) but I expect regression. Berrios’ waning LOB rate and HR allowance is also concerning. Lastly, the Cardinals are a good team… not sure if you’ve heard… and they’re no slouches on offense. They’re ranked top 5 to top 10 in almost every category, yet this is lined like Toronto has a clear advantage across the board. Na, going with the dog.
Mets (-105), to win 1.5 units
This game means more to the Mets, the perennial underdog throughout history, and T. Walker has been absolutely electric. Two weird games against San Diego and Philly have inflated his numbers, yet he still owns a 2.55 ERA (and only allows a stunning 0.39 HRs/9 innings, the perfect stat against big-sluggin’ NYY) across 91 innings. At home, off rest, after a game where their offense finally exploded against the Padres – all NYM for this guy!
White Sox/Rockies over 11.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Michael Kopech experience has promise (3.87 xERA, 77% LOB rate), but it’s been quite the rollercoaster. He’s also never started at Coors Field against an over-confident Rockies lineup. German Marquez’s numbers are markedly worse at home. I love both pitchers to trip over themselves throughout this contest and I love the over at Mile-High.
Astros -1.5 (+114), and Giants -1.5 (-105), both single plays to win 1 unit
Inflated? Yes. Two exceedingly better pitchers and better teams after a loss? Also yes. Gotta take both, wouldn’t make a bad parlay either.
WNBA Picks (7-7, -0.8 units):
Aces (+115), to win 1.15 units
Total over 170 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Sky 1H -1 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both these teams can score at will and both have separate talents to expose the other’s defense, namely: the Sky in 2-point FGs and the Aces in 3-point FGs. The Sky should come out HOT at home in a prime time game as the defending champs, but ultimately I think this game means more to an Aces team that’s out to prove they can hang with last year’s title winner. LV is a better 3 point shooting team and with the plethora of nerves we expect, that could make the difference. Hedging a little by picking Chicago early, but I like the Aces to ultimately win; creating the all-too-predictable playoff response from Chicago in the weeks to come.
CFL Picks (8-5, +3.95 units):
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
CFL Early Lines We Like
I’m not sure how available these lines are just yet at your books, but take these now if you like the way we’re thinking – looking for a much better week in CFL!
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 45.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
Premiums, 7.25
The WNBA variance Gods caught up to us, annoying, but another + unit day in MLB. Let’s keep that rolling – we NEED to get in the black before football season begins!
Not a great baseball card and not a lot of prominent sports otherwise – light day.
MLB Picks:
Marlins/Reds under 9 (-119), to win 1.5 units
The Reds are a more formidable outfit the second half of the season and while we know they prefer to win and score at home, there are just too many injuries on both sides to like an over in this contest. Miami’s Chisholm Jr. (1 HRs, 45 RBI) and Cooper (.279 average, .347 OBP) should both be out today, and the Reds continue to have a host of lineup changes due to ongoing illness/injuries to the core of their offense. Trevor Rogers and Nick Nodolo won’t scare any hitters away, but Nodolo’s 4.38 xERA and Rogers’ potential to whip out an ace-like performance at any given time, despite his down year, are all more reasons to believe that these two lineups will struggle. Like the under quite a bit.
Rockies (+170), to win 1.7 units
I know I know, the Rockies away from home blah blah, the splits blah blah, but here’s what’s also blah blah – the Milwaukee offense. Few pitchers have been more underwhelming than Kyle Freeland in his career with Colorado. Barring his 2018 season, where he was sensational, Freeland has always been a 5.00 ERA guy who struggles with consistency and velocity. But I don’t mind his profile today against the Brewers. Milwaukee depends on big slugs and HRs to stay afloat, and they’re a top 10 offense in those categories. They’re a bottom 3rd offense in batting average and BABIP, however. Freeland has the best HR allowance rate (1.06/9 innings) since 2018 and I think he could find some success today against a Brewers squad that’s probably getting a little overconfident. And it’s not like Aaron Ashby’s numbers are impressive, either. I’ll take a shot on the Rockies to eke out a win and avoid the sweep tonight.
Giants (-124), to win 1.5 units
The Giants need a win and this is a great setup for it. Tyler Gilbert has been atrocious in 30 innings and his marks say he’s gotten lucky quite a bit – scary combo. A 6.76 xERA, the lack of strength in his 89 mph four-seam and a HR allowance rate of 2.08/9 innings should open plenty of doors for a SF team that just got humbled against their arch-rival in LA. Jakob Junis has been very steady in 50 innings for the Giants, and his 83% LOB rate should come in handy against a Diamondbacks team that’s ranked at the bottom of the league in batting average and wOBA. Good time to bet on the Giants.
Foreign Basketball
Chile Segunda Basketball League, 9:00 pm EST tonight
Sportiva Italiana vs. Árabe Valparaiso over 147.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
If you can find this game at your book (it’s at Bovada, don’t see it at BetOnline, but I wonder if US based sportsbooks show it), you’ll see an astronomical line of -48.5 in favor of the away team Sportiva Italiana. The favorite smashed Arabe 93-65 in their last contest, which actually makes me want to chase the dog a little in this one, but the better play is the over. Sportiva is a scoring machine, averaging 88 ppg in 8 straight victories. Sportiva can score at will but that’s especially true against the pedestrian defense of Arabe. All we need the dog to score is 60 total points if Sportiva snags at least 88 points, their average, and this should be an easy over. If you look at the patterns of these two teams, I like these odds enough to bet 1.5 units on it.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
NFL Preseason Coaching Records For 2022 – Sports Investing
NFL Preseason Football is a half step away, and there is no better way then to start preparing the season than looking at some data. Now, it is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, quarterback changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, new coordinators, and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.
Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes, and less preseason games due to Covid, so many of the coaches this year do not have many data points. My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win. This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.
Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally have to have at least 8 games played, or 2 seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have 0 significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game. Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs. They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years. 
On a sadder note, we lost two great preseason coaches to bet on last year in Mike Zimmer, who was 20-9 in preseason football as well as Jon Gruden who was 39-19. May they rest in peace. Here is some of the outliers below that could make us some money.
Some of the most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:
- Sean McDermott at 10-5 at 67% – I must break you!
- John Harbaugh at 40-12 at 77% – I don’t care if I injury my whole team!
- Frank Reich at 7-4 at 64% – I will out-nerd you!
Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:
- Mike Vrabel at 4-7 at 36% – Lose now to win later!
- Dennis Allen at 4-8 at 33% – I came back to coaching just to lose in the preseason!
- Zac Taylor at 2-5 at 29% – The art of losing!
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. Now I know that we only have three preseason games since last year, and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Due to the change, I had to recompile our data to show the coaching record for week one, the middle weeks, and the final week. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 13-1 in game one but only 8-5 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 15-7 on game one, and only 9-12 in the final week. On the flip side, Sean McDermott s only 2-2 in game one, but 4-1 in game the final week. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2022. The preseason schedule remains only three games. Even though it is a big change from week four, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game. There also isn’t as many fade coaches as we have had in the past being that Andy Reid decided to go 3-0 last year in the preseason moving his average up to 48%, as well as the high number of coaching changes. I think that looking at the coaching records during the individual weeks might be here on out more important than looking at the coaching records in total.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
NFL – Full Season Preview Part 3/9 – AFC South
We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
AFC South
2021 Records
Tennessee 12-5/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Houston 4-13/ Jacksonville 3-14
Indianapolis – Carson Wentz Sucks. Matt Ryan should be an upgrade, but he hasn’t exactly been sharp the last few years, but his weapons also have been underwhelming or suspended. Jonathan Taylor should get his behind an offensive line with two pro bowlers, but I also worry about Left Tackle Matt Pryor taking over for a departed Eric Fisher. At receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is the top option, with a bunch of unproven talent behind him. On defense I think they made upgrades across the board with the signings of Stephen Gilmore to be a shut down corner and snagging pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue from Vegas. I think Gus Bradley taking over at DC with his aggressive style should factor well in Indy. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Heavily Juiced over -190
Tennessee – Getting the #1 Seed is special now in the NFL as it gets you the only Bye in the playoffs. Not as special is losing that first game at home after the Bye like the Titans. I also think they were the team that overachieved the most in 2021 winning 12 games with only a +65 Point differential. They were 17th in YPG and 12th YPG Allowed on defense. Not what you think of as a #1 Seed. That being said this is a veteran team, and if they have a healthy Derek Henry for a full season those offensive numbers will go up. Trading AJ Brown takes away the top option at receiver and they are counting on draft pick Treylon Burks to fill that role. They also signed Robert Woods who should be decent as a #2 if healthy. Ryan Tannenhill is probably playing for his future this year so I do expect him to thrive. The Titans resigned Harold Landry who took off in 2021, but didn’t add any key pieces and I would expect a similar year to 2021 on defense. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125
Houston – Houston is a very young team, and their season will depend on whether or not Davis Mills is going to become a quality NFL QB in 2022. If he doesn’t, they’ll be near the top of the board next season where the QB talent will be much greater in the draft than this year. Hint: He Won’t take a next step. This team was dead last on offense and unless they develop some sort of running game to improve on their 83.6 YPG in 2021 they will be in deep trouble again. Hint #2: They Won’t be able to run the ball, but #15 overall draft pick Kenyon Green could be a future pro-bowler at Guard. On defense they took Singletary #3 overall at CB and he could be a shut down type player, but the rest of the roster looks rough. Hint #3: The defense will suck again in 2022, and this team is ready to really start the rebuild with all the extra draft picks from Watson really having an effect next year allowing them to take a QB and another top tier talent in the draft. Vegas Win Projection: 4.5 Juiced Under to -130
Jacksonville – The Urban Meyer saga being complete, will Trevor Lawrence take a step forward in 2022? Doug Pederson should be able to coax the best out of him as he did early for Carson Wentz. Lots of pundits are high on the Jags to really make a leap this year, I am not one of them. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram simply aren’t the answer to improving an offense that only averaged 305+ YPG in 2021. Travis Etienne will hopefully be healthy and we will see what he brings to the table. The O-Line was a concern last year and will be once again in 2022. Even with Lawrence’s mobility he was sacked 32 times. Without improvement up front this offense will still struggle. On defense the team should improve with #1 overall pick Travon Walker, and they went defense on 5 of 7 draft picks. Darious Williams, signed from the Rams will start at corner and is an immediate upgrade there. I think the D keeps Jacksonville in more games than last year, but when your point differential on the season is over 200 to the bad side, it takes a lot of improvement to start picking up more wins. I think they are one more draft away from really having a shot at more wins and contending. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced over at -125
2022 Projections
Indianapolis 11-6
Tennessee 10-7
Houston 4-13
Jacksonville 4-13
AFC South Action:
Indianapolis – Lean Over. The Juice is what is keeping me off this play, that and cross division games vs the AFC West. If this gets to 10 at Plus Money I might make a play.
Tennessee – No Plays. Their variable schedule is brutal with the Packers, Bengals and Bills. Too much variance here.
Houston – Lean Under. I think they are gonna go full tank mode.
Jacksonville – 1 Unit on Jacksonville Under 6 Wins. They get Houston twice, Jets, Lions and NFC East, but also the AFC West. Could they find a way to get to 6? Maybe. But I don’t see 7 wins here so I’ll play the under and I think at worst I push.
