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NFL: 2022 NFC East Division Break Down

By
Steve Norman
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Will not have the same debacle I had last week with my entire article not saving, smh.  Save as you go they say, lessoned learned.  On the positive side we are in my wheelhouse the NFC East.  Let’s break this thing down to project who will come out on top and find our best future bet!

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NFC EAST

Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag

Dallas Cowboys +120, Philadelphia Eagles +175, Washington Commanders +500,
New York Giants +750
Dallas Cowboys (+120):

Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing back Michael Gallup, Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Malik Hooker, Jayron Kearse, Carlos Watkins, and Leighton Vander Esch. Bringing in James Washington and Dante Fowler Jr.

2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 24 – Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa, Round 2: No. 56 – SamWilliams, LB, Ole Miss, Round 3: No. 88 – Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama, Round 4: No. 129 – Jake Ferguson, TE, Wisconsin, Round 5: No. 155 (from CLE) – Matt Waletzko, OT, North Dakora, Round 5: No. 167 – DaRon Bland, CB, Fresno State, Round 5: No. 176 – Damone Clark, LB, LSU, Round 5: No. 178 – JohnRidgeway, DT, Arkansas, Round 6: No. 193 (from CLE), Devin Harper, LB, Oklahoma State

Strength of Schedule:  Tied 31st per CBSsports

Dallas took the NFC East title in commanding fashion last season with a 12-5 record.  Nothing has been too flashy during Dallas’s free agency or draft, all business and all defense.  They put themselves in a tough spot which basically forced their hand to move number 1 receiver Amari Cooper to spread the wealth on the defensive side, re-uping 5 key players.  Can’t really blame them as their defensive play was really coming together in 2021 and drafting 5 more defensive players to build on this solid foundation for the future.

Offensively all of their weapons are intact with the exception of Cooper being traded to the Browns.  Is CeeDee Lamb ready to elevate to be that true number 1 receiver?  I’d like to think so, but he has to figure out those drops he tends to have in crucial situations.  With Cooper on the roster the Dallas’s WR Corps was extremely scary with Gallup rounding out the top 3.  Now with James Washington being brought in to take on the role, it doesn’t scare me as much.  Sure, James Washington has lightning speed and can stretch the field, but was never really happy in Pittsburgh wanting a bigger role.  Here is his chance,  but isn’t Pittsburgh the place where WR’s emerge; Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson to name a few.  If he didn’t land a big role there… who say’s he’s really going to make a huge impact in Dallas?  They definitely took a huge step back in the WR department this off-season…but doesn’t mean they aren’t capable.

Like the Beauty and the Beast It’s a “Tale as old as time”, year in and year out for Dallas.  They beat up on the NFC East, get a nice record then fade out in the playoffs.  It’s almost comically predictable as we all know they have as many playoffs wins as Jacksonville does since 2000….3.  Let that sink in!  But the topic is the NFC East and there has not been a repeat champion of the NFC East since 2004.  But with all of the key returning defensive pieces and having one of the easiest projected schedules in the league Dallas value is fully in play.  My projected record for 2022: 12-5

Philadelphia Eagles (+175):

Key Free Agency Additions: Bring back Boston Scott, Derek Barnett, Anthony Harris.Bringing in Haason Reddick, Kyzir White, Zach Pascal, and Devon Allen.

2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 13 (from HOU via CLE) – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia, Round 2: No. 51 – Cameron Jurgens, C, Nebraska, Round 3: No. 83 – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia, Round 6: No. 181 (from DET) – Kyron Johnson, LB, Kansas, Round 6: No. 198 (from JAX via PIT) – Grant Calcaterra, TE, SMU

AJ Brown (Draft Trade)

Strength of Schedule:  30th per CBSsports

As we all know Howie Roseman was beyond active this offseason.  Wheeling and dealing and able to bring in a true Number 1 WR in AJ Brown that Philadelphia has not seen in quite sometime.  The chatter is real in Philly and fans are ecstatic, going from rebuild in 2020 to lets win it all in 2022.  I say let’s pump the breaks a little.

Eagles soared above expectations last season finishing 9-8 and sneaking into the 3rd Wildcard playoff spot.  This was a great accomplishment for Rookie coach Nick Siriani and 2nd year QB Jalen Hurts, as this team was only expected to win 4-5 games.  Now coming into the 2022 season expectations are high not only from blockbuster trades, but grabbing a lot of young defensive talent in the draft with tremendous upside.

The pieces are there offensively and defensively, but my red flag is the key piece of the league; the quarterback.  Jalen Hurts checks so many boxes for me,  he is a leader on and off the field, beyond athletic and intelligent, and has a fight in him perfect for Philly.  The downside is his passing accuracy and touch with the football.  Philly made their name last season running the ball with not only their running backs, but QB as well.  Jalen Hurts in no way, shape, or form is a run first QB, but it was definitely a nice luxury/wrinkle to bail the Eagles out consistently to keep drives alive.  We now have a full season of film on Hurts and these defensive coaches are really good with their schemes….really good.  Hurts will need to elevate his passing abilities for Philly to truly take the reigns in this division and be able to go toe-to-toe with division rival/favorite Dallas.  They have all the pieces and WR’s running in the 4.2-4.3’s, but if we are airmailing passes it will not be effective stretching the field.  Eagles compete this year, but Wildcard has their name written all over it yet  again. My projected record has them at 10-7.

Washington Commanders (+500):

Key Free Agency Additions: Carson Wentz (Via Trade), Bringing back J.D. McKissic, Bobby McCain, Cornelius Lucas, Cam Sim, Troy Apke, Tyler Johnson, and Danny Johnson. Bringing in Andrew Norwell, Efe Obada,

2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 16 (from NO via IND via PHI) – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State, Round 2: No. 47 (from IND) – Phidarian Mathis, DT, Alabama, Round 3: No. 98 (from NO) – Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama, Round 4: No. 113 – Percy Butler, S, Louisiana, Round 5: No. 144 (from CAR via JAX) – Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina, Round 5: No. 149 (from CAR) – Cole Turner, TE, Nevada, Round 7: No. 230 – Chris Paul, G, Tulsa, Round 7: No. 240 (from PHI via IND) – Christian Holmes, CB, Oklahoma State

Strength of Schedule:  Tied 31st per CBSsports

I am a big believer for any organization to be successful it needs to be in-sync from top to bottom.  Washington is not that type of organization.  Way too many scandals and constant negative attention via the media at the top starting with owner Dan Snyder.  This will never bode well for a team and lead to sustainable success on the field.

The big move for Washington this offseason was bringing in former Super Bowl Champion QB Carson Wentz (lol).  Pretty crazy that is an accurate/absurd sounding statement.  This was a decent move for both Colts and Washington in my opinion.  Colts got out of dealing with Wentz who clearly clams up and can not take a team to the next level that is ready to win now.  While Washington improved their QB room for rather cheap.

There is a decent foundation with this team solid coaching staff, capable defense, talented receiving/ TE play, and a very good running game.  This team is going to give teams headaches, maybe not win record wise but will hang around.  I really think Washington will be a very good team ATS this season, so that is definitely something to keep an eye on.  Last season they finished at 7-10 and I have them pretty much staying in that realm, if not maybe taking a step back to a 6-11 projected record.  I am a sucker for value, but +500 for a team that has no real identity and a ton of franchise issues does not interest me at all.

New York Giants (+750):

Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing in Ricky Seals-Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Mark Glowinksi, Jamil Douglas, Jon Feliciano, and Matt Breida to name a few.

2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 5 – Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon, Round 1: No. 7 (from CHI) – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama, Round 2: No. 43 (from ATL) – Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Kentucky, Round 3: No. 67  – Joshua Ezeudu, G, North Carolina, Round 3: No. 81 (from MIA) – Cordale Flott, CB, LSU, Round 4: No. 112 (from CHI) – Daniel Bellinger, TE, San Diego State, Round 4: No. 114 – Dane Belton, S, Iowa, Round 5: No. 146 (from NYJ) – Micah McFadden, LB, Indiana, Round 5: No. 147 – D.J. Davidson, DT, Arizona State, Round 5: No. 173 (from KC via BAL) – Marcus McKethan, G, North Carolina, Round 6: No. 182 – Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati

Strength of Schedule: 29th per CBSsports

If I am a Giants fan I am absolutely ecstatic with the moves that have been made this offseason.  First bringing in new head coach Brian Daboll and some of his regime from Buffalo.  This move right here only as positive upside as we saw how Josh Allen was able to transition at the QB position in Buffalo.  Hoping perhaps now the right staff is what Daniel Jones needs to elevate his play.  The second thing I really liked is the commitment to Daniel jones by making a statement in the Draft grabbing Alabama’s OT Evan Neal in the first round, but also bringing 3 O-line men from free agency.  One being Guard Mark Glowinski who hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons.  They are giving Daniel Jones no excuses, heres your line, heres your protection…. now let’s get it done.  Lastly, I still have hope for the upside in receivers like Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney.  This receiving corps is very capable if healthy, but that is a big if.  We know Giants have a solid running game when healthy with Saquon Barkley, adding Matt Brieda is a reliable change of pace back.

I like the upside on offense to do some things this season.  Defensively is where the struggles will ensue and cost the Giants their games.  There was a huge push in free agency for the offensive side of the ball, thus focusing more defensively in the draft.  They will have young talent to develop.  This season is all about seeing what they have with Daboll and  Daniel Jones progress to then develop the team around him going forward, or scrap the QB and start from scratch in the 2023 Draft.  Like the Washington Commanders I think the Giants could be a very good team ATS, but record wise I have them at 6-11.

Final Conclusion: Take Dallas +120

Even with all of the offseason moves that Philadelphia has made this offseason, Dallas is still the team to beat in this Division.  It is a QB league and Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he has the arm talent to take the Eagles to the next level.  Washington I think will trend in the opposite direction as New York takes positive steps for their future.

 

June 25th MLB Play–Corbin Burnes Day!

By
Michael Fordham
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A 1-2 Friday is not how we wanted to start out the weekend, but I still remain +10.76u over the last 47 days. I’m rolling with a lone play for today trusting an arm that has treated us well all season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT UNDER 3.5(-115) @ Brewers–3:10 PM CT

It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! I’m 5-0 backing Burnes this season, and we’re going right back to the well this afternoon. The dominant righty has followed up an NL Cy Young season by recording a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP here in 2022, but I’d argue he’s pitched even better than those numbers indicate. The only spot Burnes has faltered in this season is when he faces the same lineup for the second time in the span of 2 weeks; when you take those 2 instances out of the equation, Burnes has allowed 2 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and 1 ER or less in 8 of those starts. It’s not hard to see that Burnes is still the best pitcher in baseball. I understand that the Blue Jays can put up runs in bunches offensively, but this is the first time many of their bats will be facing Burnes in their career. The Jays are at a point where they will dominate virtually any mediocre arm, but they are not immune to being held down by the premier arms in this league. We saw them struggle with the bats for most of last weekend’s series with the Yankees, and they won’t just have to worry about Burnes in this one. While Burnes has gone 7 innings on six separate occasions this season, we have insurance in the back-end of the Brewers bullpen. The 7th-8th-9th inning trio of Brad Boxberger(2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), Devin Williams(2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and Josh Hader(0.83 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) is one of the best in baseball and a set of arms I’ll trust against any lineup. I’ve had success backing Burnes each of the past 2 seasons; I’ll trust him to bring his A game in today’s game.

Premiums, 6.25

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi All! Baseball keeps being kind to us (yay / FINALLY) and we’re feeling much better about our handicapping these days. By my records (and please feel free to audit), we’re 77-77-3 on the season now officially. Unfortunately we’re still -9 units, but I expect we’ll be in + units before we know it. Let’s get more today!

MLB Picks:
Yankees and Brewers Plays available at TheOddsBreakers here. I also have a parlay on TB ML and NYY -1.5, worth considering!
Orioles/White Sox over 9 (-120), to win 1 unit
How comfortable do the O’s look in Chicago? Sheesh. Eventually these White Sox bats need to wake up and both of these pitchers have lost their mojo this season. As much as I love to see Baltimore’s improvements, especially from the mound, this one is bound to blow open early. Taking an over.
Athletics ML (+141), to win 1.41 units
I know it’s really hard to wager on the ultra-pedestrian Athletics and their even more pedestrian offense, but Brad Keller has NO business being graded with this sort of line. He’s 2-8 as a starter and before a rare win against Oakland last weekend, he allowed 31 hits and 18 runs 17 innings prior. Yikes! And we know what usually happens when a pitcher sees the same team the following weekend. I’m on the A’s for + money.
UFC Fight Night Picks:
Tsarukyan by Decision (+150), to win 1.5 units
This is going to be a great fight and probably should be on a PPV card. These two are both elite but I’ll put my trust in a superior takedown/grappling artist to get more points as this contest trudges on. I hate how these fights are getting judged but this is still the best value IMO.
Nurmagomedov by Submission (-110), to win 1.1 units
Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on this card for a reason and he should maul his opponent throughout this match. A submission win is the best discount we can get and he’s very capable; he’s won 4/5 matches in this fashion.
Chris Curtis by Decision (+900), to win 9 units
This is an absurd line for Curtis, who’s striking is levels above Vieira and as long as he can keep this on the feet, he’ll have a significant advantage throughout. Vieira is a gifted grappler but Curtis has a long history of avoiding takedowns in slipper fashion. I think a decision-victory is much more possible than +900 suggests, so we have to take it.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Lean, AS Monaco ML (+120) on 6/25
They’re due, and these two teams tend to go back and forth. Value on the ML dog but I’m going to pull back and get more research done, for now.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Free Picks from FarleyBets – MLB Best Bets June 25, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hey Everyone! Good to be back writing some MLB articles this summer. It probably won’t be as frequent as NFL and NBA since I don’t consider myself as much of an expert on the ol’ bases, but right now we’re right an 8-3, +6 unit hot streak and we’re settling into our MLB capping. Here are some free plays, below!

Want Chris’ Premium Picks in your inbox every day? Click here for HUGE discounts!

Notable Records: 57%, +130 career NBA record, 2021 NFL Circa Winner (5th, $114k)

Yankees -1.5 (+125): One look at Cristian Javier’s home/road splits and it’s easy to see why we love the Yankees today. Predictably, Houston grabbed a win with their ace on the mound last night, but NYY proved that against vulnerable pitching, it’s usually not a contest. I don’t see that changing today, especially with Gerrit Cole’s (3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) on the mound. Cole commands the dirt today and he hasn’t had a bad game at home since April, with a solid average ERA of 3.00 at Yankees Stadium the last 2 months. Javier cannot say the same on the road. Look at his H/R splits and you’ll see what I mean- dude loses it quick away from Houston and allows way too many big slugs; that’s not a good thing against a NYY unit that only mustered 1 run last night and leads MLB in HR/per game. I like the Bronx Bombers by margin today.

Brewers -1.5 (+120): Milwaukee’s offense has been disappointing, to say the least. Their league rankings don’t lie: 24th in batting average, 26th in hits per game, 24th in strikeouts per game, and a boring 15th in points, averaging only 4.34 runs per contest. Their setup today should help. Yusei Kikuchi just keeps getting exposed and the Blue Jays just keep rolling him out and playing him for 4+ innings a start. Kikuchi is walking batters at a high rate (5.60/9 innings), allowing a ton of big hits (1.81 HR/9 innings), and his 6.57 xERA suggests this isn’t ending any time soon. He’s allowed 26 hits in the last 18 innings alone, a pretty staggering data point for any starter in MLB. Behind Corbin Burnes (2.31 ERA, 0.92 WHIP), who’s steady arm should be able to steer the ship against a talented Jays’ lineup, I like the Brewers to catch a stride today and take advantage of a highly vulnerable thrower. Milwaukee by margin for plus money = great value against Kikuchi.

UFC on ESPN Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov -150

Buying low is the way to go, and you can see that this bamtam weight fight line tells a story when Morozov is 1-2 in the UFC as a 60% favorite against Paiva who is 3-3.   Sergey Morozov is a 33 year old Russian that knows how to win fights both standing on his feet and on the mat.  He has eight wins by KO, three submissions and six decisions.   Sergey’s three UFC fights were certainly no cakewalk with a loss vs Umar Nurmagomedov who is a -1000 favorite tonight (cousins with Khabib).  A win vs a tier two Khalid Taha, and then a loss back in February by a very seasoned tier 1 fighter in Douglas Silva De Andrade who is 28-4.  Raulian Paiva is a 26 year old contender who is two inches taller than Sergey with a very nice fight record at 21-4.  Raulian is quick on his feet and likes to stick and move.  His wins are 4 by KO, 3 by submission, and 14 decisions.  Two of his three UFC wins were to tier 3/4 fighters and his one tier two win vs Kyler Phillips by decision was a total farce as what most fight fans would say being that the judges got it completely wrong.  This is why there is value in this fight and Sergey isn’t a larger favorite.  Paiva has speed and a great volume of punches and kicks, but there really isn’t much power behind them being that he goes to decision so often.  Sergey Morozov is the much more accurate striker landing 58% of them compared to Raulian’s 45% and most of Sergey’s wins are by knockout.   Morozov has a massive take down advantage at 3.28 per 15 minutes to .58 for Raulian so that will help him if the going gets tough.  Three out of four of Raulian’s losses came inside the distance and his last fight vs Sean O’Malley got him knocked out in the first.  Raulian has been living off winning by the cards for a long time now, but I think that time will come to an end tonight.  Even if this fight doesn’t get finished inside the distance, I think that Morozov gets the job done accumulating ground and pound damage and will show that he is the stronger fighter and the price says so.

Morozov -150 – 2 stars

Bonus Play:  

Durden to win ITD +300 – .5 stars
JP Buys to win ITD +200 – .5 stars – These two fighters have only went to the cards 6 times out of 29 fights.  I think this one does not go the distance and you can get +125 betting it like this.

Stanley Cup Finals Preview & Picks – Game 5

By
Patrick Gates
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The Stanley Cup will be in the building tonight as Colorado looks to close out the back to back champs and capture their first title since 2001. Tampa Bay will hope to stay alive and force a Game 6 back on home ice. Teams with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series have an all time record of 298-31 including a 35-1 mark in the finals.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-1)

Side Line Movement (COL: -190/ TBL: +160)

The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, tonight is the largest that Colorado has been favorited in a single game against Tampa Bay. This includes the regular season when they went off at -110 and -115 in their two matchups. The line opened at -160 and has since shot up to where it currently is.

There’s two ways of looking at this tonight. Either you think that based off the line movement, Colorado will definitely win tonight. Or, you believe that Tampa Bay moneyline has some value as they’ve never been offered at this price before.

 

Total Line Movement (6.0: -105/-115)

The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.

 

Game 5 Breakdown

The Avalanche have had more expected goals than Tampa Bay in every game this series. In the lone game the Lightning won, Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Tampa Bay have shown glimpses of hope, they’ve been outplayed by the Avalanche in every game this series. Despite Tampa Bay making their third consecutive Stanley Cup, they really struggle matching up with Colorado.

Going into Game 5, we find the Lightning with their backs against the wall. A scenario that they’ve been in before, and somehow seem to always come out on top. For a variety of reasons, this series seems different. It looks as though the past few years of playoff hockey have caught up with this veteran squad. By no means am I saying that they can’t or won’t win Game 5. Based off history there’s no reason to doubt this team. They have a core that has gone through this before and has ten times the playoff experience as the Avalanche. In the last two games, they’ve only allowed two 5-on-5 goals. If they can limit Colorado’s Power Play, which was been deadly in this series, the have a shot.

However, when we look at the two teams, the Bolts have a lot of their key guys hurt. Nikita Kucherov struggled last game after a collision with Toews in Game 3. Brayden Point has yet to play since Game 2 against the Avalanche. Erik Cernak and Anthony Cirelli are also day-to-day battling injuries.

Colorado on the other hand, got Nazem Kadri back in Game 4 who was the eventual difference maker scoring the winning goal in OT. Andrei Burakovsky is their only other player who’s hurt. He’s not likely to return to the lineup for the rest of the Finals but, Colorado has shown they can alter lines and plug in anyone to fit their game plan.

In terms of how I think Game 5 is going to go it’s tough to say. I had a pretty good read on Game 4 but, this one much more difficult. We’ve seen Colorado get beaten at home twice this post season. In terms of stats they perform much better when looking at home/ away splits. Tampa Bay on the other hand has struggled on the road this season, mainly due to Vasilevskiy’s performance. If you look at his home/ away splits in the post season, he’s much worse on the road. To counter that, he’s been incredible in elimination games throughout the past few playoffs.

I usually like to take the best number on the board but, I don’t see Colorado losing this game. They cannot afford to lose this game and give Tampa Bay and sense of hope. Colorado is going to come out firing in the first and try to get to Vasilevskiy early. I also see Tampa Bay forcing Colorado to score tonight. It shouldn’t be a low scoring game like we saw on Wednesday. Kuemper’s coming off the best game of this series and looking at trends, he’s allowed three or more goals after giving up 2 or less in the game prior. Most people aren’t giving Tampa Bay a shot in this game but I don’t hate them. While they’ve been outplayed, their one of those teams that just finds a way to win.

TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg), A. Cirelli (QUES- Arm), E. Cernak (QUES- Leg)

COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)

 

 

Team Prop Breakdown

TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-110/-120)

Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)

Game 2 Team Total: 0

Game 3 Team Total: 6

Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in two out of the four games this series. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.36 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 2.56 goals against per game.

 

COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-240/+195)

Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)

Game 2 Team Total: 7

Game 3 Team Total: 2

Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)

The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the four games this series. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 4.44 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.27 goals against per game.

 

Player Prop Breakdown (courtesy of Linemate.io)

Alex Killorn 0.5 Points (+150/-190)

Game 1 Points: 0

Game 2 Points: 0

Game 3 Points: 0

Game 4 Points: 0

Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last fifteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

Gabriel Landeskog 0.5 Points (-175/+140)

Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal & 1 Assist)

Game 2 Points: 0

Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Goals)

Game 4 Points: 0

Gabriel Landeskog has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.

 

Nathan MacKinnon 0.5 Points (-250/+190)

Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)

Game 2 Points: 1 (1 Assist)

Game 3 Points: 0

Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Goal)

Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.

 

Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-250/+190)

Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)

Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)

Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)

Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)

Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. He’s currently on an eight game point streak. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.

 

Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165/+130)

Game 1 SOG: 3

Game 2 SOG: 0

Game 3 SOG: 4

Game 4 SOG: 2

Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five away games, he has gone over this number four times.

 

Valeri Nichushkin 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160/+125)

Game 1 SOG: 6

Game 2 SOG: 5

Game 3 SOG: 1

Game 4 SOG: 4

Valeri Nichushkin has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.

 

Cale Makar 2.5 Shots on Goal (-200/+155)

Game 1 SOG: 0

Game 2 SOG: 4

Game 3 SOG: 5

Game 4 SOG: 5

Cale Makar has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number two times.

 

Goalie Prop Breakdown 

Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)

Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)

Game 2 Saves: 23

Game 3 Saves: 37

Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)

In Vasilevskiy’s last four games this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves three times. On the road this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 31.55 shots against. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 41.11 shots on goal for.

 

Darcy Kuemper 25.5 Saves (-115/-110)

Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)

Game 2 Saves: 16

Game 3 Saves: 17

Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)

In Kuemper’s four games this series, he has gone under this number in three of them. At home this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 26.44 shots against. On the road this post season, the Bolts average 28.91 shots on goal for. This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games, to now 25.5 in Games 4 and 5.

 

Picks

  • [1u] Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – Caesars
    • Despite the lack of points in this series, MacKinnon has made his offensive presence known. He’s surpassed 4.5 shots on goal in six of his last seven playoff games. Over the course of the playoffs, he’s averaging 5.77 shots on goal per game. At home, that number jumps up to 6.0 sog/game.
  • [0.50u] Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total over 2.5 (-110) – DraftKings
    • Last game we saw Darcy Kuemper have his best game of the series with a +1.49 GSAx. He rebounded well after getting pulled in the game prior. If we look at numbers, they Lightning average below this number on the road. You’re probably asking yourself if the stats don’t correlate to the pick why do you like it? We’ll lets look at Tampa Bay’s current scenario. They’re in an elimination game on the road that no one thinks they can win. Colorado’s goalie, who has been the opposite of consistent this post season, is coming off his best game. I’m not sure Tampa Bay wins this game but, they won’t go down without a fight. We saw this in their first series against Toronto and I expect a similar effort tonight.

 

Leans

  • Colorado/ Tampa Bay Over 6.0 (+102) – Barstool
  • Ondrej Palat over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

June 24th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-1, +0.31u Thursday, I find myself +12.01u over the last 46 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Dodgers TT OVER 4.5(-115) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT

After beginning the month by getting swept at home by the Pirates, the Dodgers’ offense remained in shaky form for the next few weeks. However, you’re not going to keep a lineup with that much depth and talent down for too long. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers swept the Reds in Cincinnati, and they did so by putting up 28 runs in the 3 game set. That is even more impressive considering they faced some talented arms in Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Hunter Greene. Tonight, the Dodgers find themselves in position to take advantage of another young righty. Braves SP Ian Anderson had a very solid rookie season a year ago, but he has really taken a step back here in 2022. Through 13 starts, the righty holds an ugly 1.39 WHIP and is walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. In addition, Anderson has allowed 1.5 HR/9 at Truist Park this season. While the Braves have a top 10 bullpen in baseball, that unit is not fresh after needing their back-end arms each of the past 4 days in their tightly-contested series against the Giants. While availability might not be an issue tonight, this unit is not in peak form entering perhaps their toughest matchup of the season. I think the Dodgers’ eruption in Cincinnati this week is a sign of what’s to come as we head towards the All Star Break. I’ll trust the Dodgers to keep the bats hot tonight. 

*MLB(1u): Nationals TT UNDER 3.5(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT

Rangers SP Dane Dunning has had his fair share of struggles on the road, but he’s adjusted nicely to pitching at Globe Life Field. Dunning held an impressive 3.09 ERA at home last year and has followed that up with a 3.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Dunning is a heavy-sinker arm that produces a ton of ground balls; while the Nationals have a high contact rate, they rank just 25th in home runs and 21st in runs this season. While their road numbers this year might look promising, a few outlier performances in hitter-friendly ballparks pad those numbers quite a bit. The Nats were shutout in Baltimore on Wednesday and now enter an even tougher hitting environment tonight. While I’ve been skeptical of the Rangers bullpen this year, they actually rank 12th in bullpen WHIP, better than the Red Sox, Mets, and Cardinals. I also expect Dunning to go pretty deep in this game, so we’ll likely avoid having to trust any of the Rangers’ lesser arms in this one. I can understand the oddsmakers not wanting to go out on a limb with Dunning, but you can make a pretty good argument that this number should be 2.5. When you factor in that we’re getting 1:1 odds, this was too good for me to pass up. 

*MLB(1u): Tigers/Diamondbacks F5 UNDER 4.5(-110)–8:40 PM CT

Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly has morphed into a pretty reliable arm in the Arizona rotation. He holds a sub-3.50 ERA on the season and is allowing just 0.5 HR/9. Kelly’s always been steady in his home ballpark, and he’ll get the easiest matchup you could hope for tonight. The Tigers rank dead last in OPS vs righties on the road(.534 OPS) and have had a historically bad season at the plate. Despite getting some favorable matchups in hitter-friendly Fenway Park earlier this week, the Tigers racked up just 8 runs in that 3 game set. While the offense has made it impossible for Detroit to hold a good record, the pitching has been the lone bright spot for the Tigers this year. Tigers SP Rony Garcia has pitched much better than his 4.97 ERA would indicate; he holds an impressive 1.05 WHIP on the season and has delivered in his toughest matchups this season(5 IP, 2 ER at Yankee Stadium). The D-Backs can have their moments offensively, but they rank just 26th in OPS at home vs righties and are not in good current form. Considering each of these SP’s have had plenty of success this year combined with the inadequacies of each offense, I think this number should be at 4. We’ll hope to take advantage tonight.

Premiums, 6.24

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

The Diamonds keep on treating us well and I can’t complain! The Yankees win was obviously a little floozy but, from an alternative perspective, their lineup is SO dangerous that it’s not all that unexpected, either. We’re nearing the .500 mark (finally) in MLB Picks and our units are getting closer to the positive, too. Still got plenty of room to make up for, though.

MLB Picks:
Astros ML (+108), to win 1.08 units
Houston proved they likely won’t get swept in this series and I’m sure they can’t wait to overcome the Yankees’ home winning streak. Verlander gives them their best shot and they’re looking for vengeance tonight – gotta take the very capable road dog.
 
White Sox First 5 -1 (+110), to win 1.10 units
The White Sox couldn’t get a point in yesterday’s contest at home and credit to Baltimore’s pitching – they’re winning more games by their arms than bats and showing real improvements this season. Kopech is turning into another ace for Chicago and Bradish has been, well, hellish so far this season. His xERA (6.30) doesn’t sway too far from his horrendous ERA (7.38) which tells us everything we need to know about how hittable he truly is. White Sox take this early by margin for plus money = good value.
Blue Jays (-135), to win 1 unit
Alek Manoah has proven his value time and time again and the only reason his ERA shrunk a bit in June (and it’s still at 2.52 this month) is because of NYY, something many major-league pitchers can relate to these days. Toronto’s bats have been considerably more consistent than the home-team Brewers and Houser’s 4.31 xERA isn’t terrible but he projects to continuously allow big slugs throughout the season. Taking Toronto and eating the juice on this one.
The Rays, Rangers, and Marlins check out as good parlay legs today. I won’t be playing it; been burned too often by parlays already this season, but it’s a lean for me and I wouldn’t blame ya!
NHL Picks:
Avalanche -1.5 (+145), 1 unit
Colorado returns home after taking Tampa’s soul in south Florida on Wednesday night and obviously, this sets up for a big-time finish for a favorite that only performs even better on their own friendly ice. If the first two games of this series were any indication of how confident and explosive Colorado is at home, the value is on the Avalanche to close this series out with authority.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Lean, AS Monaco ML (+120) on 6/25
They’re due, and these two teams tend to go back and forth. Value on the ML dog but I’m going to pull back and get more research done, for now.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

June 23rd MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-1 Wednesday, I sit at +1.01u on the week and +11.7u over the last 45 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Brewers F5 OVER 5(-110)–1:10 PM CT

While each of these offenses can have their struggles, both will be facing very vulnerable arms this afternoon. Brewers SP Jason Alexander has made 4 big league starts in his rookie season, and he’s been anything but impressive. Alexander holds an atrocious WHIP at 1.70 and has recorded just 8 strikeouts in 22.1 IP. While I like the Cardinals’ lineup better against lefties, they are still more than capable of beating up on a vulnerable righty arms; we saw this just a few days ago when they faced Chi Chi Gonzalez. Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson somehow holds an ERA at 3.31, but that does not tell the full story. If Hudson’s 1.29 WHIP isn’t proof that a sub-4.00 ERA is not sustainable, consider that the righty is striking out just 5 batters per 9 innings while walking over 4 per 9 innings. As a kicker, Hudson has been far worse on the road this year, especially in the walks department. The Brewers offense has feasted on these type of righties all season long and just tagged Adam Wainwright for 4 runs last night. I really don’t like the makeup of either one of these starters, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage this afternoon. 

*MLB(0.69u): Padres -1.5(+145) vs Phillies–8:40 PM CT

Padres SP Joe Musgrove is currently 2nd in NL Cy Young odds, and for good reason; the righty has accumulated a 1.59 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this year. Since joining the Padres, Musgrove has been masterful in Petco Park, and he’ll get a more favorable matchup than you might think tonight. While the Phillies went on an absolute tear in recent weeks, they have fallen back down to earth here over the past few days. They got swept earlier this week against the lowly Rangers, have lost 3 straight games in total, and have scored just 7 runs across their last 4 games. Petco Park is another tough hitting environment, and this seems to be a group that stays mired in the ups-and-downs of the MLB season. The Padres have been carried by their pitching for virtually this whole season, but the offense showed promise in their sweep of the D-Backs this week. Looking at yesterday, the Friars racked up 16 hits and 10 runs, chasing lefty Madison Bumgarner after just 4 innings. They’ll face another vulnerable lefty in Ranger Suarez today. Suarez’s 2021 seems to have been just a fluke; in 13 starts this season, the lefty holds a 4.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Specifically, Suarez has begun to struggle with his command, walking 4 batters per 9 innings this year and 7 batters across his last 2 starts. Even with Manny Machado not in the lineup, I like what I’ve seen the Padres bats this week. What ultimately gets me on this run-line is the massive bullpen discrepancy; the Padres rank T-2nd in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Phillies rank 28th in that same category. Considering the caliber of arms San Diego will run out there tonight, +145 seems too good to pass up. It will remain a sprinkle because runs don’t flow too easily from the Padres offense, but I do think San Diego wins this game comfortably.

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday WNBA Play + MLB NON DIVISION TOTAL OF THE YEAR INFO

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Thursday card led by the 19-0 MLB Non Divisional Total of the Year and the Canadian Football League Game of the Week. WNBA Comp Play below.
The WNBA Comp play is on the Under in the Indiana at Dallas game at 8:00 eastern. The games fit a totals system that has cashed 8 straight times to the under for Home favorites like Dallas that are off a road favored loss and are taking on a team off a home dog win. These games have averaged 150 points since 2013.  Indiana has gone under 4 of 4 as a road dog, 7 of 9 with 3+ rest and 19 of 26 vs a team under .500. Dallas has gone under 5 of 6 vs a losing team and 11 of 14 vs East conference opponents. In the series 8 of the last 9 have stayed under. Look for this game to stay Under. On Thursday the 19-0 Non divisional Total of the Year headlines along with our Canadian Football League Game of the week with 2 powerful systems. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the WNBA Play. Play the Under in the Indians vs Dallas game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
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