We have a great show for you today! Sig @SigLasVegas comes back on to break down The 147th Preakness Stakes. The show starts with Kiev talking a few MMA fights for UFC on ESPN Holm vs Vieira and gives out a free play. Next, Sig comes on and the guys get right into it! First, Sig and Kiev recap the derby and talk about how it finished out. Next, the guys get into the Preakness Stakes. Is Epicenter a deserving favorite? Who are the best long shots to take, and who are we tossing off of our ticket? Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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We’re onto the second major of the year at Southern Hills Country Club. Defending champion Phil Mickelson will not be in the field this week as he has withdrawn. This will be the first time this course has hosted a major championship since it’s major renovation so there is a bit of unknown here. This course should provide an excellent challenge for all players this week so I’m expecting some difficult scoring conditions.
Tournament Information:
Dates: May 19th, 2022 – May 22nd, 2022
Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States
Course: Southern Hill Country Club (Champions Course)
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,556 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 and Ties after 36 Holes
The PGA Championship heads to Southern Hills Country Club for the first time since 2007. Southern Hill Country Club last hosted a major championship back in 2007, the PGA Championship. In total, the Champions course at Southern Hills has hosted 7 Major Championships; 3 U.S. Open’s and 4 PGA Championships. As it stands, it is the only course to ever host the PGA Championship four times.
In 2019, Southern Hills underwent a major renovation overseen by Gil Hanse. He’s been apart of some notable renovation projects before including Wing Foot prior to the 2020 U.S. Open. Hanse also designed The Rio de Janeiro Olympic Golf Course in 2016. The main goal of this renovation was to add distance as well as restoring elements of the original design by Perry Maxwell in 1936. Other changes to the course include wider fairways, new bunkers, and the reshaping of numerous greens.
Phil Mickelson who won the PGA Championship last year will not defend his title this year as he withdrew from the tournament due to person reasons. There’s been a lot of rumors speculating as to why he withdrew but only Phil and his team truly know. At 51 years old, Phil became the oldest player ever to win a major championship. He is the third PGA Champion to not defend his title in the past 75 years.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Southern Hills is a Par 70 that plays over 7,500 yards. The widened fairways should provide bombers the encouragement to attack these holes off the tee. The rough is also isn’t a major factor as it isn’t all that penal. The difficulty of this course comes in players approach shots. The greens are smaller than the tour average and are surrounded by run off areas that feed into bunkers or even worse creeks. Hitting the greens will be a little tougher this week given the wind in the predicted forecast. The greens aren’t that fast so players should be able to hold them. Given the difficulty of approach shots, scrambling around the green will be placed at a premium. Overall, this is a long course that relies on players ability to hit the green.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PAR
4
4
4
4
5
3
4
3
4
YARDAGE
468
500
472
377
656
214
489
251
391
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PAR
4
3
4
5
3
4
4
4
4
YARDAGE
441
173
456
632
230
417
527
371
491
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Driving Distance
Par 4 Scoring
Scrambling
Major History / Comparable Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field and will look to capture his second Major of the year. In addition to winning the Masters, Scheffler has also won the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Scheffler has played in the PGA Championship twice before and has finished inside the Top 10 in both of those appearances.
Jon Rahm, who won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago, is another favorite this week. Surprisingly enough, that was his first victory of this season. He was close a few times finishing 2nd at the Sentry ToC and T3 and the Farmers Insurance Open. Rahm has yet to play since that victory in Mexico. His best finish in a PGA Championship came back in 2018 where he finished 4th.
Rory McIlroy has two PGA Championships under his belt winning in 2012 and again in 2014. McIlroy does have one win to his name this season capturing the CJ Cup back in October. He’s coming into this in great form finishing 2nd at the Masters with a stellar round on Sunday and 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Collin Morikawa, winner of the PGA Championship in 2020 has a history of success in this event. In his only other PGA Championship appearance he finished 8th. Morikawa has been a Top 10 machine this season but has yet to capture a win. In his 11 tournament starts this year, he has finished inside the Top 10 in 7 of those events. However, he hasn’t been in the best form as of late and has yet to play on Tour since the Zurich Classic, which was back in late April.
Jordan Spieth will be looking to complete the Grand Slam this week. He has won all three other Majors but yet to win the PGA Championship. Spieth has come close several times finished 2nd in 2015 and 3rd in 2019. He enters this weeks event in great form winning the RBC Heritage and finishing 2nd in the AT&T Byron Nelson in his last two Tour starts.
Previous PGA Championship winners in the field; Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jason Duffer, and Tiger Woods.
If you’re looking for a few trends this week here they are:
Americans have won the last six PGA Championships
39 of the last 40 Major Winners were ranked inside the OWGR top 50
The last 12 PGA Championship winners made the cut in their final start before the event
9 of the last 12 PGA Championship winners were 30 years or younger
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Lowry has finished inside the Top 20 in six of his last seven tournaments. He’s a great ball striker ranking 4th in Strokes Gained Approach and can handle the windy conditions. While he’s not great off the tee ranking 64th in strokes gained, his approach play should give him an advantage. One concern is his play around the green but he is 2nd in terms of Scrambling.
Will Zalatoris (+160) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Zalatoris enters this week event ranking 1st in Strokes Gained Approach on the PGA Tour. He’s also long off tee, ranking 12th in Driving Distance. In addition to the length he ranks 11th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee. He played in the PGA Championship last year and finished 8th. Zalatoris also enters the tournament finishing T6 or better in three of his last four events.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Tony Finau (+100) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Tony Finau ranks well in terms of all the key categories. He’s 23rd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 32nd in Stokes Gained Approach. Finau isn’t a great short game player or putter but he has gained strokes putting in three of his last four events. He’s also gained strokes around the green in his last two events. Finau has also finished inside the Top 40 in four of his last five events and in the lone event he missed, he placed T41.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 4.34 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
And here we go!! I hope everyone is having a great start to the week! I have 1 of my 2 premium plays for today below for all!! Best of luck if you tail!!
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The Twins of Minnesota are taking on the Oakland Athletics inside of the Oakland Coliseum. The A’s are currently 15-23 while the Twins own a 21-15 record for the season. James Kaprielian is the right handed starter for Oakland today while the Twins will throw out righty Dylan Bundy, who will make his first start since being on the Covid IL. Kaprielien is having a rough start to the season as he has posted a 1.42 WHIP, .229 BABIP and 5.38 xFIP so far this year. Bundy has earned 3.52 xFIP and an on par .316 BABIP this season and owns a 25.9% K rate, .190 xBA and 2.90 in 85 plate appearances against this A’s roster in his career. The Twins are 6-4 in their last ten games played while going 8-7 on the road and 15-6 as a favorite this season. The Athletics are 5-14 at home this season and are 5-5 in their last ten games played. Oakland has been outscored 21-7 in their previous five games played while only scoring ONE run in three games straight. Oakland ranks 25th in runs scored in the majors this year and are ranked 30th in both OBPS as well as batting average. Dylan Bundy is a strikeout pitcher and the Athletics are ranked 25th in strikeouts per game as an offense while Minnesota’s defense is ranked 6th in runs allowed this season and 7th in total strikeouts. Not a good matchup for Oakland tonight. Take MIN ML -120
I started the week out with a 1-1, +0.33u night and am now up over 8 units over the past 8 days. I’ve got 3 MLB plays for today looking to keep things rolling. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group! I will also be live at 1:15 PM CT on Twitter and YouTube talking over today’s slate.
*MLB(1u): Guardians -1.5(+125) vs Reds–5:10 PM CT
The Reds showed signs of life early last week during their home stand, but over the weekend, they put up just 1 run combined on Saturday and Sunday on the road against the measly Pirates pitching staff. Tonight, Zach Plesac will take the hill for the Guardians in a dream matchup. Plesac’s numbers this year are not inspiring, but he’s also had to face the White Sox(twice), Angels, Giants, and Padres already. I haven’t given up hope on Plesac yet, and given he’s always pitched better at home, I like him to break out against a Reds lineup that ranks dead last in OPS on the road. Reds SP Connor Overton has looked sharp in 3 starts this year, but I don’t think his sub-2.00 ERA is sustainable. The Guardians’ numbers are a bit misleading, but they still hold the clear advantage offensively. Given Overton’s 36% hard contact rate, the Guardians should have plenty of opportunities to strike big tonight. A big reason I felt comfortable laying the run-and-a-half is the massive bullpen discrepancy between these two clubs. The Guardians have a top 5 bullpen in baseball, while the Reds bullpen holds a 1.43 WHIP, which ranks 2nd to last in the league. I think those numbers will hold true throughout the rest of the season. I like Cleveland to take care of business at home tonight.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 4.5(-130) vs Giants–7:40 PM CT
*MLB(0.71u): Rockies F5 ML(+140) vs Giants–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies are averaging over 6 runs/game at home this season, so the fact we’re getting a 4.5 on their team total is a bit perplexing to me. Giants SP Alex Cobb has looked sharp this year, but this will be his second straight start against this Rockies lineup, a situation I believe heavily favors the opposing lineup. Cobb has also made 4 of his 5 starts at home this year; Oracle Park plays to his style nicely. However, Cobb held a 5.44 ERA and 1.52 ERA on the road last year and was roughed up by the Mets in his lone road start this year. The Rockies hold an OPS above .800 vs righties at Coors Field this season, and they’ll also face a Giants bullpen that has massively underperformed this year. I don’t love laying -130, but 4.5 is simply the wrong number.
I’m also going to play on the Rockies in the F5 at a glorious +140 price. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has looked very sharp in his 2 starts at Coors this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that holds true this year given the Rockies seem to fill their rotation with guys who can handle the burden of pitching in Colorado. While Kuhl will also face the Giants for the second straight time, the fact Cobb finds himself in the same boat negates any advantage the Giants may have. You have to price the Rockies like a top of the line team when they’re at home, and that’s just not occurring with this number. I don’t want to trust the Rockies bullpen that ranks dead last in the league in WHIP, so I’ll isolate the F5 ML to win us a full unit.
Tuesday Triple pack has a Super Rare 7* in the NHL, a 6* In MLB Action and the NBA Game of the Month all headlining a Powerful Card overall. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the NY. Mets at 3:10 eastern. The Mets are 11-1 off a loss and 8-0 off a home loss dating to last year. They have won 9 straight on Tuesdays and 7 of 9 vs a winning team. To tie in a nice system from the MLB Database. Home favs off a home loss are hitting over 80% long term vs a team that scored 10 or more in a home dog win like the Cards. St. Louis has lost 5 of 7 vs a righty and it appears they will have Ex Met Matz going in the opener and he has an elevated 6.40 Era on the year and it looks like He will oppose T. Walker who was solid last out and has a 3.00 Era. Look for the Mets to take the opener here today. On Tuesday Rob has just his 2nd 7* this Year in the NHL Headlining as well as a 6* in MLB with a 15-0 System and the NBA Game Of The Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we have a Huge card up. For the MLB Comp Play. Make it the Mets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Some of you have inquired about our overall records. Here’s a few:
NBA Playoffs: 51-39 (57%), +8.35 units
MLB 2022: 38-44-1 (46%), -9.84 units
NBA 2022 Regular Season Record: 283-223 (56%), +73.1 units
NBA 2022 Complete Record: 334-262 (56%), +81.45 units
In case you haven’t noticed, I don’t publicly display my MLB records, especially not when the NBA is still going, since I don’t call myself an “expert” MLB bettor. Trust me – our record and ROI will vastly improve as the season progresses.
Fun day of MLB betting, huh? (EYE ROLL) Onto Tuesday, onto more NBA, onto more wins, and fuck a zany Monday in baseball. Added a play on the Heat.
NBA Futures
Celtics win series 4-3 (+550) – We think the Heat will win game 1 so that pushes this to 7 games since we expect them to win 2 or 3 at home and probably one really tough game on the road. The Celtics are the better team, but I would not be surprised if Miami won. They’re still very underrated.
NBA Picks (Game 1s):
Heat ML (-125), 1 unit
Celtics/Heat under 204.5, 1.5 units
I’m pulling the trigger on Miami. The Heat because they have considerably more rest, they’re at home, and they’re very good as underdogs (which they are in this series). They also didn’t experience the same level of physicality that Boston just endured. That being said, defense will still dominate this series. Two slow teams, two defenses that are exceptional against half-court sets, and both teams’ best shooters will be challenged and contested at every turn. As a hedge of sorts, I like the Heat to succeed more than Boston’s offense, principally because of the home court advantage and added rest, but overall this should be a low-scoring game. If you don’t like the full game under, consider taking Miami TT over – there’s a good chance we see the best version of Miami against a lethargic version of Boston.
Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units
Mavericks/Warriors 1Q under 53.5, 1.5 units
These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.
MLB Picks:
Dodgers (Game 1) -1.5 (EVEN), 1 unit to win 1
The Dodgers will start Ryan Pepiot, who had a great showing in his first time on the mound, or it’ll be a bullpen game. LAD, a historically great team at home, has been playing these Dodger Stadium contests a little too close. That changes today. There’s a chance this line rises and gives even more + money if you want for the pitching announcement, but I’m not gifted enough in predicting MLB lines just yet, so I’m taking it now.
Reds first 5 +0.5 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
Overton has been solid in 17 innings and Plesac just keeps getting whacked, showing no real signs of improving command. I’ll take the God-awful Reds to beat the frustrating af Indians.
Giants/Rockies under 11.5 (-115), 1.65 units to win 1.5
Remember when we lost the over last night even though neither team could score halfway through the contest? Same. That sucked. I’m taking another shot, though. Kuhl got exposed last time against San Francisco but he’s been really solid and I expect at least some positive regression, while Cobb was stellar in his last start against Colorado.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We’re onto the second round of the NHL Playoffs. The first round certainly lived up to the hype with five of the eight series going the distance. We didn’t really have any major upsets with the Blues being the biggest upset in terms of odds. The 2nd round gives us some incredible matchups including the ‘Battle of Florida’ and the ‘Battle of Alberta’.
Overall Stanley Cup Odds
Click the following link to see the most updated odds and the line movement throughout the season.
Eastern Conference
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The Panthers rattled off three wins in a row to defeat the Washington Capitals 4-2. This was their first playoff series win since 1996 when the reached the Stanley Cup Final. In all three of those games they came from behind which makes sense as they’re known as the ‘Comeback Cats’. Florida led the NHL in come back wins during the regular season with 29 and has continued that trend in the post season. Out of all the offensive firepower Florida has, Carter Verhaeghe led the Panthers in points with 12 (six goals and six assists). He scored the OT winner in Game 4 and again in Game 6 which was the series clincher. One area of the concern for the Panthers is their Power Play that went 0-18. They became the ninth team in NHL history to win a best of seven series without scoring on the man advantage.
The Lightning also came back in their series from being down 3-2 to win in Game 7. The Leafs playoff woes continue as they have yet to win a playoff series since 2004. Tampa Bay on the other hand continues their quest for three consecutive Stanley Cups, a feat that was last achieved by the New York Islanders. The Islanders actually won four cups in a row which stretched from 1980-83.
Nick Paul, who was acquired from the Senators on March 20th, was the Game 7 hero scoring both goals. Crazy enough, those were his first two playoff career goals. Brayden Point, who scored the OT winner in Game 6, is questionable for the first few games of the series which is a significant loss for this team. Andrei Vasilevskiy had an up and down series leading up to Game 7, but had an outstanding performance when they needed him the most with a +2.58 GSAx in the final game of the series. Nikita Kucherov, who led the post season in points last year with 32, is averaging over a point per game and will need to continue to be a key contributor.
These teams met last year in the post season where Tampa Bay defeated Florida in six games. The Panthers goaltending was an absolute mess last year with three different goalies starting a game in that series. Bobrovsky, who has historically struggled against the Lightning, will look for redemption. This is the best team that Florida has put on the ice maybe ever so he’ll have support but, ultimately their success depends on him. They played four times during the regular season splitting the series. In their last regular season game, the Lightning stomped the Panthers 8-4 ending their thirteen game win streak that they were on. The Lightnings path to success depends on goaltending as well but, Andrei Vasilevskiy has proven himself over the course of the past few seasons. Last year, Vasilevskiy was other worldly with a +26.6 GSAx in the post season winning the Conn Smythe Trophy.
For me, Florida is still unproven while the Lightning turn into this other animal in the playoffs. Without Point, the Lightning aren’t nearly as good so hopefully he can return to the lineup as soon as possible. To be honest, I have no idea who wins this series. I want to say Florida as I believe their a better team but, the Lightning have the experience and significant advantage in net. Given the animosity these two teams have for each other, I do think this ultimately goes six or seven games, which is my bet.
Series Total – 6 Games (+210) – 0.50 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+210) – 0.50 Units
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers
The Carolina Hurricanes took down the Boston Bruins in seven games. Max Domi, son of Tie Domi, was the Game 7 hero scoring twice. The Hurricanes acquired him at the trade deadline which proved to be a great move. This series was all about home ice advantage as the home side won every game. The Hurricanes showed that they could match Boston’s physicality while also out performing them on the score board. This is an incredibly talented team with no real weaknesses. They’re expected to get their number one goaltender back in Frederick Anderson as well. Antti Raanta, had the majority of the netminder duties in this series and played well finishing the series with a 2.37 GAA and .927 SV%. Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin lead the Hurricanes in points with 8 a piece. DeAngelo, will face off against his former team who placed him on waivers after a confrontation with a teammate.
The New York Rangers clawed their way back from being down 3-1 in the series to win Game 7 at home. This is an interesting team as they’re likely Vezina winner goaltending Igor Shesterkin had some struggles. However, he came through in Game 7 with a +1.86 GSAx. If the Rangers will want to have any chance in this series they’ll need to rely on him, which is something that they’ve done all season. The Rangers are horrific 5v5 ranking dead last in xGoal% (5v5). They face off against the Hurricanes who were tied for the third best xGoal% (5v5) in the regular season. Mika Zibanejad leads the team in points with 11 followed by Adam Fox who has 10.
Carolina proved that their a cup contender much more than the Rangers did in the first round. As I mentioned before, they’re a complete team that can beat you in a variety of ways. The Rangers need to rely on their special teams to have a chance and given how disciplined the Hurricanes are, I’m not sure they’ll have many chances. The Hurricanes won three of the four regular season matchups against New York which included two at MSG. Given how these teams matchup, I don’t really know what chance the Rangers have. They’ll be looking to ride that momentum from coming back in the first round but I’m not sure it’ll be enough. I think they can win a game and possibly two but ultimately I see Carolina advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 Games (+110) – 1 Unit
Western Conference
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues
The Colorado Avalanche were the lone team to complete a sweep in the first round. They took down the Predators in four who really didn’t stand a chance. It essentially was a waste of eight days for them to quote Calgary Flames Head Coach Darryl Sutter. However, now’s when the hard part begins for Colorado as they have been eliminated in the second round in each of the past three years. If there’s ever a lineup to do it, it’s this one. Cale Makar leads the Avalanche in points with 10. He became the first defenseman in NHL history to record 10 points in a four game series. Gabriel Landeskog who returned from injury in time for the playoffs is tied for second on the team with Nathan MacKinnon at six points. The Avalanche’s Power Play was deadly in the first round converting at a rate of 43.8%. It’ll be interesting to see if they can continue at that rate given how good St. Louis’ Penalty Kill was in the first round. Darcy Kuemper who suffered an eye injury in Game 3 is expected to make his return after missing Game 4. He was solid in the those two and a half games with a 1.63 GAA and .934 SV%.
The Blues took down the Minnesota Wild 4-2 and proved that their a legit contender. They have a ton of offensive depth with Perron, O’Reilly, and Tarasenko all scoring five goals in the first round. Their third line of Saad, Barbashev, and Kyrou even contributed, tallying 11 points as a unit. This line may be the difference in this series as it offers the Blues bottom six scoring that the Avalanche lack. Jordan Binnington took over the net from Ville Husso after Game 3 and looked to return to his 2019 post season form. Over the course of those three games he had a 1.32 GAA and .943 SV% compared to Husso’s 3.02 GAA and .906 SV%. The Blues Power Play was also great in the first series converting at a rate of 30.8% and will face Colorado’s Penalty Kill that ranked 11th out of the 16 teams.
This will not be a cake walk series that Colorado had in the first round. The Blues are a physical team that can matchup with the Avalanche and give their top guys some issues. St. Louis does have some issues on the back end with rotating injuries that could be the difference maker. If the Blues don’t have their top six defenseman it significantly hurts their chances here. For St. Louis to win, they’ll need to continue to get offensive production from everyone and Binnington will need to stand on his head. Last year, these teams met in the first round and Colorado swept them but as Blue’s Captain Ryan O’Reilly said, this is a completely different team. For Colorado, they just need to continue their fast pace style of hockey and not let St. Louis rattle them physically. The Avalanche should win this series as they are the better team but if anyone can beat them, it’s this Blues team.
Series Total – 6 Games (+235) – 0.50 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+275) – 0.50 Units
Series Correct Score – Colorado Avalanche 4-2 (+350) – 0.25 Units
Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers
Possibly the most anticipated second round series, the Battle of Alberta. The Oilers defeated the Kings in seven games coming back from being 3-2. Connor McDavid was absolutely unbelievable in the first round which may even sell him short. He leads the Playoffs in points with 14 (four goals and ten assists). I haven’t seen someone take over a Game 7 like that before. In addition to McDavid, goaltender Mike Smith was also great and leads all goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected with a +10.4 rating. Evander Kane who the Oilers acquired late in the season proved be a great pickup as he finished the series with seven goals. Leon Draisaitl who had 110 points in the regular season struggled a bit with a nagging injury but still manage to tally nine points.
The Flames also required seven games to close out their series against Jake Oettinger the Dallas Stars. Calgary struggled a bit to break through the defensive style hockey that Dallas plays. It also helped that Stars netminder Jake Oettinger was absolutely unbelievable throughout the entire series. Even through Oettinger won the goalie battle in terms of GSAx, Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom didn’t have a bad series himself. Through those seven games he finished with a +4.8 GSAx which ranks 3rd. Johnny Gaudreau led the Flames in points with 8 while Matthew Tkachuk followed him up with 6. Calgary faces a Edmonton team that plays a less defensive style of hockey so we should see their offensive production increase significantly in the second round.
Despite both goalies playing well in round one, all I see is goals in this series. Both teams played similar style teams in the first round and while this series will be physical, it should also be very high scoring. In terms of a winner, I think Calgary prevails. They’re just an overall better team than the Oilers and have the depth up front. While Mike Smith is playing great right now, he can be streaky and if the Flames rattle him up in the first few games the wheels may come off, and fast.
Calgary Flames -1.5 Games (+110) – 1 Unit
Bonus Parlay of the Second Round (+323) – DraftKings
Series Winner – CAR Hurricanes (-190)
TB Lightning +2.5 Games (-320)
STL Blues +2.5 Games (-155)
CGY Flames +1.5 Games (-350)
Best of luck, and as always you can find us on Twitter @GatorBetting and @TopCheddarPicks
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I breakdown the second round of the NHL Playoffs. It’s an awesome episode where we rundown every series and offer our predictions.
In addition to breaking down every series, we all discuss the first game in each matchup offer our picks and player props to target. It’s truly a one stop shop for all of your NHL gambling needs.
Series:
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues
Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Gretzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Madison Bumgarner has started this season on a great note with 7 games started sporting a 1.78 ERA. The walk and home run rates are a little higher than one would like to see at 3.56 and 1.19 per 9 innings respectively. The strikeout rate is respectable at 5.93 per 9 innings. Hitters are only batting .205 on balls put in play and only a 7.6% barrel hit rate. He’s only given up 2 or more runs twice this season. He’s been in this division a long time and has seen these Dodgers players a lot. He has handled Dodgers lineups fairly well giving up an average of about 2 runs per start since 2019.
Tony Gonsolin has also had a very solid start to the year starting 6 games with a 1.33 ERA. In 3 starts at home this year he’s only given up 1 run for an impressive 0.60 ERA. Walks have also been an issue for him though with a rate of 4.33 per 9 innings. A strikeout and home run rate per 9 innings at 7.67 and 0.33 are great numbers. Hitters are only batting .211 on balls put in play and getting the barrel on the ball 1.4% of the time. Gonsolin has only given up more than 2 runs on 1 occasion this year being in Arizona. I’m not too worried about that as his last couple starts have been pretty impressive going 5 innings against the Giants giving up 1 run, and 5 innings against the Pirates giving up nothing.
These two teams haven’t exactly been lighting up the first 5 inning box score recently against weaker pitching either. I would expect this to be a low scoring game through at least the first 5 innings. As long as these guys can keep the walks down, I don’t see them running into a ton of trouble.
Love the value here. I’m taking U4.5 F5 -105 for 1U. Best of luck if you come along for the ride!
