Tuesday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 N.L. East Side and a 5* WNBA Power Play Headlining.
The MLB Comp play is on San Diego at 9:40 eastern,. SD fits a nice system here tonight. Home teams off a home win like Arizona scoring 11 or more runs are 2-9 vs an opponent off a home loss that scored 3 or more runs like the Padres. San Diego has won the last 6 in the series and they are 6-0 with rest, 11 o3 after scoring 5+ runs. Arizona is 0-5 vs an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs and 1-4 off a win. Manea goes for SD and his teams are 4-0 vs Arizona. Gallen goes for Diamondbacks and his teams are 0-4 vs SD. Look for the Padres to take the opener. On Tuesday Rob has his Signature Move an Executive Level TIER 1 Side in the N.L. East game tonight along with another TOP 5* in WNBA Action. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the free play. Go with the Padres. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Apparently I just like to bet on the hottest female tennis players and that doesn’t seem to be working. Of course I’m kidding, but it looks like Yastremska just didn’t show up today. Go back to recording your rap album, home girl.
In any case, I like the Popyrin/Gaston match to go over. Right now the live line is around 39.5. I’d take it up to 41. Gaston looks like he’s going to make a comeback and set 3 was kinda flukey. Let’s go.
Our initial Wimbledon parlay didn’t hit but it was damn close – no points for a loss though. 1-1 in MLB, let’s have a winning day.
MLB Picks:
Guardians ML (Game 1, +102), to win 1.54 units
These two pitchers dueled just 5 days ago in a sleepy 1-0 win for Minnesota, but Smeltzer is way more efficient at home, with an ERA of 4.87 on the road compared to a 1.50 ERA at Minnesota. Plesac has been solid at home and he’s due for some betting outings. One horrendous game against Oakland inflated his stats. Guardians desperately need a win today and this is a great setup for it.
Phillies first five -0.5 (+105), to win 1.05 units
There’s a lot to like about what Zack Wheeler is doing these days. His last start got silly on the road against a feisty Rangers squad, but he should settle in today back at home knowing he’ll have to show exceptional command against an ace like Charlie Morton. Morton has been a workhorse for Atlanta, pitching 20 innings the last 3 games, and he was blasted in his last start at Philadelphia, allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in just 4 innings. I like Wheeler to have the advantage and the Phils to gain an early lead.
Live Bet NYY – I put a live bet on the Yankees when they were down 5-2 last night and it’s probably a great way to approach their series with Oakland. The A’s can’t score, so when they do, expect regression and expect those Yankees’ bats to do what they do best: dominate.
Mets ML (+105), to win 1.05 units
Carrasco’s marks are better than advertised and this is another tough series for Houston, who survived by tying the Yankees the last 4 days but lord knows it wasn’t easy. Valdez did a great job against NYY last week but the Mets are back home and happy to be out of the snooze fest series in Miami. Houston also bested NYM in two straight games at Minute Maid Park – time for some vengeance.
Padres/D-Backs under 7.5 (-110), to win 1.36 units (1.5 unit bet)
All these two pitchers do is give low-scoring contests when they duel and this one should be no different. Both throwers kept their opponent well under the total in the last two outings and Gallen in particular is even more commanding at home. Love the under.
Wimbledon:
Parlay: Yastremska + Halep, 1 unit to win 0.90 units
Chris discusses the ins and outs of his methodology in prepping for the NFL season and gives his thoughts on the AFC Conference and where the teams stand heading into the 2022-23 season. Check it out and subscribe!
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With only 9 games to work with tonight, I’m sticking with 1 play to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers/Royals F5 OVER 4.5(+100)–7:10 PM CT
While the novice fan might not suspect it, each of these teams handle left-handed pitching quite well. The Royals rank 3rd in OPS vs lefties at Kauffman Stadium this season, while the Rangers rank 6th in OPS vs lefties on the road. Royals SP Kris Bubic has shown some slight improvements since being recalled from Triple-A earlier this month, but he still holds an abysmal 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season. Bubic is walking 5.3 batters per 9 innings while simultaneously allowing 1.6 HR/9; not exactly a recipe for success if you ask me. Martin Perez might hold a 1.96 ERA on the season, but a WHIP at 1.13 is a strong indicator that Perez is going to encounter some serious regression. While Perez has escaped jams consistently, his 1.67 WHIP across his last 4 starts is an even stronger sign that Perez is starting to play with fire. The Royals offense is anything but a juggernaut, but their success against lefties at home speaks for itself; they are more than capable of getting after Perez tonight. Considering each offense has found success in this role combined with my skepticism surrounding each SP, I feel comfortable playing this F5 Over.
We’ll take another winning day in MLB! Def feels like we’re catching a stride and just understanding things on a different level right now, definitely “different” than 2 months ago. Don’t want to take ourselves too seriously ever, especially on the bases, but it’s nice to see some positive regression. I think it’ll continue. Pretty pumped that Wimbledon starts today, too. Expect some parlays and consistent ATS plays throughout the week! Happy Monday!
MLB Picks:
Dodgers/Rockies over 11.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
The Dodgers just survived another tough series with a 2-1 win over Atlanta, and not shockingly Colorado just got embarrassed on the road, again, especially in terms of their batters. Sending two subpar pitchers onto the mound in Denver today, we expect a ton of scoring. Wouldn’t be shocked if Colorado upset LAD, either.
Blue Jays -1.5 (+110), to win 1.1 units
Gausman has had a rough few weeks but he’s due to improve after showing sub 3.00 ERA numbers in his first 2 months on the mound. This is a nice setup today against newcomer Connor Seabold, who’s getting called up from Triple A to take on a superior Toronto lineup at home. Like the home team Jays by margin!
The AFC North – Somehow got two teams into the playoffs last year after this division faced a lot of adversity. The Steelers had an aging quarterback and a bad offensive line, the Ravens pretty much injured everyone trying to win preseason games, and the Browns… Well, they turned back into the Browns with some bad coaching and a banged up Baker Mayfield. The Bengals really benefited from all of this turmoil, but should we expect them to repeat as division winner this year? We shall see. One thing that I know is that this division has had no coaching changes and it will be very interesting to see who comes out on top. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC South which I would call a medium type setup for their schedule. Let’s not forget that the whole AFC plays the extra at large away game vs the NFC.
Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.94
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ New York Giants, @ Jacksonville, vs Denver
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: S Deshon Elliott, CB Athony Averett, C Bradley Bozeman, WR Sammy Watkins, DT Brandon Williams, DE Justin Houston, IL LJ Fort
Key additions: FS Marcus Williams, RT Morgan Moses, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Davis
Key Draft Picks: S Kyle Hamilton, C Tyler Linderbaum, EDGE David Ojabo, TE Charlie Kolar, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis, TE Isaiah Likely and a bunch of dudes
Summary: This team started the year in shambles last year due to John Harbaugh’s stubborn ways of wanting to win in the preseason and going through tough practices. This technique is a double edged sword because it does prepare you better for the regular season when you are hitting hard, but it does open you up to more injuries and the Ravens started the season without some Offensive lineman and without their top two running backs in JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. I have to give the Ravens back some love for all the injuries last year, but they also have a very interesting schedule going through the AFC East the first four games of the season. The good news for this team is that they have an easy 4th place schedule coming into this year and they also have added more to their team than subtracted through a ton of draft picks and some good free agency moves. This team will look great coming into the season and you can see how much the Market likes them at a highly juiced 9.5 to the over in their season win total. My only issue with this team is that I do not completely trust Lamar Jackson when teams take away the middle of the field, and he is held into contain. More and more teams had figured that out and one has to wonder if Lamar can start throwing more accurately to the sidelines when needed.
My Number: 11.47
Action – Play the over
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 4.5
2. Cincinnati Bengals –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to under -120
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 10.45
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Dallas, @ Tennessee, vs Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: TE CJ Uzomah, CB Darious Phillips, CB Trae Waynes, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key additions: G Alex Cappa, RT La’el Collins, C Ted Karras, TE Hayden Hurst
Key Draft Picks: S Daxton Hill, CB Cam Taylor-Britt, DL Zachary Carter and some dudes
Summary: Looking at my last year preseason thoughts on the Bengals makes me want to kick myself. Lean under 5.5 wins? What the hell was I thinking? Well, I guess that Joe Burrow proved that he really didn’t need an offensive line to make things happen. This team won 10 games and went to the super bowl last year. Heck, they could have won game 17 vs Cleveland had they not benched their players. Once thing that I will say is that things really turned out well for the Bengals with massive injuries within the division and some big last minute wins not only during the regular season, but in the playoffs as well. Now the Bengals were very fortunate to have an easy schedule last year but this year they will be now punished with a first place schedule and some very hard at large games added to playing a healthier division. Due to this schedule, I am not going to be in the market to bet over the 10 wins, but I will say that at least their Pythagorean win total last year was 10.45. I also absolutely love how this team paid for their offensive line with some guaranteed studs instead of relying on more of a crap shoot in the draft. I expect the Bengals to be in contention for the division at some point, but in no way to I feel that they will run away with it.
My Number: 9.23
Action: Lean Under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 3.75
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the under -130
2021 Wins: 9.5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.91
Schedule: Hard – At large vs @ Philadelphia, @ Indianapolis, vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, G Trai Turner, CB Joe Haden, ILB Joe Schobert, C BJ Finney
Key additions: QB Mitch Trubisk y, ILB Myles Jack, C Mason Cole, CB Levi Wallace, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key Draft Picks: QB Kenny Pickett, WR George Pickens, Edge DeMarvin Leal and some dudes
Summary: Mike Tomlin just can’t seem to get out of the playoffs and I am sure that this Pittsburgh team burned some folks money last year with nine wins and a playoff appearance. What I will say is that this Steelers team was certainly fortunate to get the Ravens and the Browns so banged up last year and their Pythagorean win totals shows that they over achieved by a massive 2.5 games. My biggest issue with the Steelers is that they didn’t do enough in my opinion to fix their offensive line. Believe it or not, I do not think that going from an elderly, immobile Big Ben down to a very talented yet non-confident Mitch Trubisky isn’t a huge downgrade, but what I will say is that if Tomlin doesn’t use Mitch properly and allow him to run for chunks of yards, it could be a long season for the Steelers. The optimistic side of Mitch is that he played for a terrible coach in Chicago, and he looked great last year in the limited games and the preseason on the Buffalo Bills. If not Mitch, maybe Kenny Pickett turns out, but he wasn’t a top 10 pick for a reason. I will say that I do see a lot of variance with this Steelers team and it would not shock me to see something good happen in Pittsburg.
My Number: 7.21
Action – No Play
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: PULLED
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.05
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs @ Atlanta, vs LA Chargers, @ Washington
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: QB Baker Mayfield, QB Case Keenum, TE Austin Hooper, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Richard Higgens, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, CB MJ Stewart, C JC Tretter, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Malik Jackson
Key additions: QB DeShaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Taven Bryan, DE Stephen Weatherly and a bunch of low class bums
Key Draft Picks: WR David Bell and a bunch of no names
Summary: According to Wikipedia, Baker Reagan Mayfield is an American football quarterback for the Shanghai Sharks of the National Football League. Seriously, look it up. Even though he is still a Brown, I can’t see any possible way that he stays with this team. My god did he cost himself some money. Maybe even around 100 million. We shall see the fallout soon. Now the jury is completely out on DeShaun Watson after they traded for him and lost some top draft picks in doing so, but that just makes this whole situation that much more uncertain. We don’t even know what kind of suspension the NFL will instate on Watson when this is all said and done. All that I see is that this team didn’t do much in the offseason as well as in the draft, and they lost a ton of production. I am going to assume that Jacoby Brissett starts this season which doesn’t look good for the Brownies. Another thing that sucks for this team is that two of their three at large games aren’t all that easy. If there is anything good to talk about, they still have a ton of talent all over the place, and a great offensive line that they paid for last year.
The Lightning took Game 5 by a score of 3-2. Game 6 will be back at Amalie Area where Tampa Bay has a 10-2 record this post season. Colorado still has lead in this series and will look to capture their first title since 2001.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-2)
Side Line Movement (COL: -120/ TBL: +100)
The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, that trend ends tonight as Colorado is the slight favorite. This is the first time all post season that Tampa Bay has been a home underdog.
Total Line Movement (6.0: +105/-125)
The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.
Trends:
Avalanche are 8-1 in road games this post season
Under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 home games
Game 6 Breakdown
The Lightning survived elimination once, can they do it again? This time they’ll be on home ice where they’ve had a ton of success this post season. In the playoffs, they have a 8-2 record.
Colorado, who dropped Game 5, has a great track record away from home. On the road this post season, they have a 8-1 record. Their only loss was at the hands of Tampa Bay in Game 3. In that game, they had more expected goals than the Lightning but, still lost 6-2. The difference in that game was goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 GSAx compared to Kuemper’s -1.96 GSAx.
We turn to Game 6, where it should be an incredible game. The Lightning have shown time after time, that they can get themselves out of any situation. However, as I talked about in Game 5, they’ve been outplayed this entire series. Despite Tampa Bay’s never say die attitude, I think their run finally comes to a close tonight.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (OUT- Leg)
COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand), V. Nichushkin (QUES- Lower Body)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-145/+115)
Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 3
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. At home this post season, the Lightning average 3.70 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 3.11 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-180/+145)
Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 2
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 4.55 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Lightning average 2.10 goals against per game.
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last sixteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Interesting note on this line: In Games 1-5, Killorn to record o0.5 points was listed at -150. In Game 6, the line has now dropped 15 cents to -135.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+185)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 5 Points: 0
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point four times. Last game, his eight game point streak came to an end.
Ondrej Palat 0.5 Points (-140/+110)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Ondrej Palat has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.
Valeri Nichushkin 0.5 Points (-135/+105)
Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 2 (2 Goals)
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Valeri Nichushkin has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point only once.
Nathan MacKinnon 4.5 Shots on Goal (-170/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 5
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 6
Game 4 SOG: 8
Game 5 SOG: 6
Nathan MacKinnon has recorded over 4.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number four times.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Game 3 SOG: 4
Game 4 SOG: 2
Game 5 SOG: 3
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.
Victor Hedman 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 3
Game 4 SOG: 7
Game 5 SOG: 5
Victor Hedman has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number three times.
Cale Makar 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100/-125)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 4
Game 3 SOG: 5
Game 4 SOG: 5
Game 5 SOG: 5
Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
This line has moved from 2.5 in Games 1-5 to 3.5 for Game 6.
Goalie Prop Breakdown
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 35
In Vasilevskiy’s five starts this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves four times. At home this post season, the Lightning give up an average of 34.00 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.22 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 26.5 Saves (-110/-115)
Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 26
In Kuemper’s five starts this series, he has gone under this number in three times. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 29.78 shots against. At home this post season, the Lightning average 34.50 shots on goal for.
This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games to 25.5 in Games 4 and 5. Now, it jumps back up to 26.5 for Game 6.
Picks
[1u] Colorado Avalanche ml (-115) – DraftKings
We saw the Lightning get a few “iffy” goals by Kuemper in Game 5. As I mentioned in my last article, his play is the exact opposite of consistency. Andrei Vasilevksiy’s play in elimination games continues to be spectacular. While I don’t doubt his play in tonight’s matchup, the Avalanche should be able to get 2-3 by him tonight. Colorado has been great away from home this post season and I believe they close out the Lightning in six.
[0.50u] Cale Makar over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings
Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
A lot going on at Farley Estate today so not as much time for explanations and extra verbiage. MLB regressed yesterday but hey, the Astros no-hit the Yankees, AT HOME, and Milwaukee probably should have won by margin. Whateverrrrr. That +900 UFC hit was pretty gnarly though, wasn’t it? Onto another zany Sunday!
MLB Picks:
Mets/Marlins under 8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bullpens haven’t been overly used and two starting pitchers who can slow this game down should take an early command and bring this under.
Yankees -1.5 (+110), to win 1.65 units
Did you think I wouldn’t bet this? Nester Cortes’ is the perfect ace for NYY in this setup to tie the series and snag a win on Sunday. Yankees’ bats resurface today against the very hittable Urquidy.
Pirates/Rays first 5 over 3 (-125), to win 1 unit and
Rays first 5 -1 (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Conteras’ 2.89 ERA is fake news, plain and simple, and the Rays’ play is a hedge of sorts; Shanahan shouldn’t have any issue dominating a poor Pirates lineup.
Dodgers/Braves under 8.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Strider only had one truly bad outing and it was in his last start against SF. Gonsolin is 9-0 and he’s been arguably LAD’s best pitcher; says a lot among their crew. Like the under.
Stanley Cup, Game 6:
Lean, under 6
Like the NBA playoffs, this is getting really intense and the margin for error is thin. Both defenses probably play their best but I don’t have the balls to play it. Just a lean.
Sunday card has the Cup Finals 100% Play of the year in the NHL and a Powerful MLB Card with ESPN Sunday night Bases. We also have our 5* Soccer Game of the Month. MLB Comp play below.
On Sunday the MLB Comp play is on the NY. Yankees. From the MLB Database we note that Non Division home teams that were no hit as a home favorite vs an opponent that scored 4 or less runs are 4-0 going back to 2004. NY has won 3 of 4 off 2 losses. Houston has lost the last 4 vs a lefty. Cortes for NY is 3-0 at home with a 1.53 Era and 3-0 in day starts. Urquidy for the Astros has a 6.28 road Era. Look for the Yankees to take the finale. On Sunday we end another big week with our Cup Finals Play of the Year in the NHL,The Soccer Game of the Month and a Powerful MLB Card with the ESPN Sunday night Play. sSee us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/FB to Jump on now as we continue to cash in all sports. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Yankees. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
