We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to take a first look at the 2022 college football season. First, Kiev recaps the weekend of UFC and a crazy Kentucky derby finish. Next, Kiev get’s into college football talking about the top and bottom 10 teams in returning production. Then, Kiev talks about some 10 teams that benefitted from the transfer portal. Finally, Kiev gets into a little UFC for the weekend with a FREE PLAY for your weekend pleasure. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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Time for a free pick! Check me out on the BetUS NBA show 4x a week, on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @FarleyBets, and you can get my premium picks right here at TheOddsBreakers (see below)!
We’re 44-34 (56.4%) in NBA Playoff Picks and we’re betting MLB, UFC, and more! If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here!
Bucks +5.5, 1.5 units
I don’t care what anyone says – this line is wrong. Bookmakers have the Celtics as two-possession favorites after a gutsy performance from Al Horford, a surge by Tatum in the 4th quarter, and an excellent all-around team effort on defense in game 4. While all that is rather legit, not so fast my friends, not so fast.
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I realize this is in Boston, but this is also the Milwaukee Bucks, the returning champions, and a number of things went awry that we won’t count on in game 5. The Bucks shot 41.5% from the floor and 33.3% from beyond the arc – that won’t happen again. Jrue Holiday had a horrendous shooting game, support anchors like Portis and Allen did next to nothing, and Giannis was visibly frustrated and exhausted after carrying his team to a level even he’s not used to. Although we have to give some credit to the Boston defense, the Celtics were still outplayed for the majority of Monday’s contest. This is a HUGE spot and both teams will experience surges of pressure throughout tonight’s game. Sometimes (often, actually), it’s the intangible aspects of a game that make the difference, and we think the battle-tested Bucks are up to the task.
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I expect a well-coached Bucks unit to try and mix it up and free up Giannis more than he has been, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win. If I were to “bottom line” this article in one sentence — the returning champs, even without Middleton, do not deserve to be this much of a dog, even on the road. Giannis is the most dominant player on earth, they still have one of the deepest rosters in the association, and Mike Budenholzer doesn’t get enough credit for how he coaches his players up after a loss. Take the dog.
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The Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox continue and conclude their three game series today in south Chicago. The Guardians are 15-15 and the White Sox are 15-14, today’s matchup will serve as the rubber match between the two teams. Cleveland, this season, has an over-under record of 18-12 on the season and the Guardians have seen the over go 7-3 in their last ten games played. Cleveland has been excellent against right handed pitchers this season as they own the best batting average (.273), scored the 3rd most runs and the 2nd best wOBA in the MLB. Vince Velasquez will be pitching for the White Sox today and the veteran right hander has deftly struggled this season. Velazquez owns a 1.37 WHIP, 4.29 FIP and has a career 5.37 FIP against this Cleveland roster. The White Sox pitcher is known for allowing a high number of fly balls and with how Cleveland is currently hitting, the Sox starter could be in trouble today. Cleveland’s starter is Aaron Civale who has very poor peripheral pitching numbers as well as poor base line numbers. Aaron Civale has a 1-2 record and an ERA over 9.00, has not had a quality start this season as he has given up his fair share of runs and has posted a 4.90 FIP against this ChiSox roster in his career.. However, Civale owns a .381 BABIP in his starts the season, which is an indicator that positive regression is coming for the right hander. Additionally, the Guardians have had the most hits (132) and scored the most runs (77) on the road this season against right handed pitching. Take over 8.5 & CLE ML +128
I cashed my first multi-unit play of the season with the Giants TT OVER last night which made it 2 straight winning nights to start the week. I’ve made 3 MLB plays for today looking to keep things rolling. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+105) vs Rockies–2:45 PM CT
After last night, I am now +5.88u going against the Rockies on the road this year. Overall, the Rockies are 5-9 on the road this season and 1-8 over their last 9. They’ve lost the first two games of this series by 3 and 7 runs, respectively, and they’re at another matchup disadvantage today. Giants SP Alex Cobb had one blowup start against the Nationals but has otherwise looked sharp this season. While his ERA sits at 4.80, his FIP of 2.23 indicates he’s pitched much better than the ERA would indicate. Cobb held a brilliant 0.48 HR/9 last year and has allowed just one long ball this year. The Rockies home/road hitting splits are astronomical, and that’s especially true against right-handed pitching; the Rocks held a lowly .620 OPS on the road vs righties last season and hold a .541 OPS in that scenario this year. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has looked very good to start the season, but I do not think that will hold up as the Rockies face some of the stiffer competition in the NL. Kuhl’s 3 road starts this year have come against the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Rangers; not only are those 3 of the worst offenses in baseball, but each park is very pitcher friendly. Today, he’ll face a Giants lineup that has dominated right-handed pitching at home and has scored 8.5 runs/game over their last 4. In his time with the Pirates, Kuhl had some of the worst road numbers in the league, and I believe today will start a stretch where those numbers start to come to fruition this year. The Giants also hold a significant bullpen advantage considering the Rockies rank dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP and have fared much worse on the road. I can’t for the life of me figure out why we continue to get plus-money offers to fade the Rockies on the road. I’ll look to go 6-0 in this spot today.
*MLB(1u): Angels ML(-125) vs Rays–6:07 PM CT
As shared by our friend Ralph Michaels(@CalSportsLV on Twitter) from WagerTalk, teams are just 27-36 the day after getting no-hit over the last 20 years. When they’re on the road, that drops to just an 11-18 record. While that’s only a part of my handicap, it is worth noting that this is a profitable angle. As for the matchup, it’s not hard for me to back Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani held a 1.95 ERA at home last season, and a current FIP at 1.54 indicates that he’s perhaps in the best form of his career. While the Rays tend to handle righties well away from home, the fact they got no-hit last night is a pretty strong indicator that they are not in great current form. Also, this is the final game of a 10-game West coast road trip for the Florida-based Rays, so this is not a spot I’d like them in to begin with. Rays SP Shane McClanahan is a powerful lefty arm who should be around for a long time, but this is not an easy matchup whatsoever. Even in a down year, the Angels mashed lefties at home last year(.813 OPS) and have the best offense in the league through 1 month of the season. By virtue of throwing a no-hitter, the Angels have a fresh bullpen for tonight. While I can almost always trust the Rays in the later innings, their bullpen has received a ton of usage during this road trip, and the Angels actually hold a better bullpen WHIP up to this point in the season. This is not a good spot for the Rays(as history shows), and with Ohtani on the bump today, the Angels should be set to complete the 3-game sweep.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(-122) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT
The Astros come into tonight having won 8 straight and are allowing just 1 run/game over that stretch. Astros SP Jose Urquidy has not looked great this year, but this is a very manageable matchup. The Twins have scored just 2 runs/game over their last 5 games and are still without Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Luis Arraez. Urquidy fired 6 shutout innings against the Tigers in his last start, and given he had a 1.07 WHIP on the road last year, I’m inclined to trust him today. Twins SP Chris Archer is a clear “play against” guy in my mind. An ERA at 3.26 might not lend you to that conclusion, but a FIP of 5.78 is a strong sign that Archer is due to get shelled. Archer has been trying for 7 years to recover the stuff he had in his early days as a Ray, so I don’t see why a matchup with one of the league’s most reliable lineups is all of a sudden the turning point. The Astros haven’t put up many crooked numbers recently, but given their pitching dominance, they haven’t really needed to. This lineup ranked 2nd in road OPS vs righties last season, and I think their best days lay ahead. I give the clear bullpen advantage to Houston as well, making this -122 price a bargain in my mind. I think the Twins’ sweep of the Athletics over the weekend was deceiving, and last night seemed to back up that notion. I like the Astros to keep it rollin’ tonight.
Well our MLB parlay won, nice comeback by the Yankees, but now I’m starting to hate betting baseball again. A 3-1 night in the NBA saves the day.
We’re 44-34, +9.15 units in the NBA playoffs. Onto the hump we go.
NBA Picks:
Bucks +5.5, 1.5 units
Don’t give a shit what anyone says – this line is wrong and I’ll be writing an article about it today. Bookmakers have the Celtics as two-possession favorites after a gutsy performance from Al Horford, a surge by Tatum in the 4th quarter, and an excellent all-around team effort on defense in game 4. Not so fast, my friends. I realize this is in Boston, but this is the Milwaukee Bucks, the returning champions, and a number of things went awry that we won’t count on in game 5. The Bucks shot 41.5% from the floor and 33.3% from beyond the arc – that won’t happen again. J. Holiday had a horrendous shooting game, support anchors like Portis and Allen did next to nothing, and Giannis was visibly frustrated and exhausted after carrying his team to a level even he’s not used to. Credit to the Boston defense, but Boston was still outplayed for the majority of Monday’s contest. The Celtics are a great team but this is a HUGE spot and there’s going to be a ton of pressure on both teams tonight. Sometimes (often, actually) it’s the intangible aspects of a game that make the difference. We think the battle-tested Bucks are up to the task, I expect a well-coached unit to try and mix it up and free up Giannis more than he has been, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win.
Warriors/Grizzlies 1Q over 56, 1 unit and
Warriors/Grizzlies 1H over 112, 1.5 units
We’re not overthinking this one, either. The shooting was atrocious for 3/4 quarters of the previous contest. Only in the 4th quarter did either team really find a rhythm, and we think that carries over in game 5. The Warriors had the best offense heading into the previous game and the Grizzlies, although they “tried to slow down the game” Monday, Golden State had a thousand open shots that they just didn’t hit, aka the defense wasn’t really there like it should have been. Memphis will want to run the floor and get ahead of Golden State, again, and we expect more pace and more efficiency from both offensive units. I like it better early, but I lean the full game over and I think the Warriors close it out tonight.
MLB Picks: (fuck)
LA Angels over 4 runs (+140), 1 unit
We know that Shane McClanahan is a talented pitcher (3.06 ERA, .99 WHIP over 32.1 innings) but these Angels bats are HOT. I’m buying into the hot team slugging a few more against one of the better pitching lineups in MLB – this is fantastic value.
Orioles/Cardinals first 5 under 4 (+110), 1 unit
Watkins (3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 22.1 innings) faces off against Miles Mikolas (1.53 ERA, .99 WHIP over 35.1 innings), two pitchers who have looked consistently commanding and confident to start the season. The Baltimore offense is way overdue for a cool-down and I expect Watkins to be at his best after his worst performance of the season.
Parlay: Mets ML + Giants ML: 1 unit to win 1.3 units
NHL Pick:
Capitals (+185), 1 unit
The Panthers have an explosive offense but the Capitals are too good and the objectively better team in most other categories. They don’t deserve to be undervalued like this and I’m inclined to keep taking advantage.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I breakdown the first round of the NHL Playoffs. It’s an awesome episode where we rundown every series and offer our predictions. We also do a bandwagon draft at the end to figure out our teams for the playoffs since all of ours have been eliminated.
Series:
Florida Panthers vs Washington Capitals
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche vs Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues vs Minnesota Wild
Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Gretzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
The Lynx impressed me in their first game with their ability to hang with the Storm early. They fell apart in the second half which does tell me they do have some depth issues as they figure out their rotations. They’ll be facing the Fever in their second game at home, who are probably going to be the worst team in the Eastern Conference this year on the tails of the Pacers debacle in the NBA. I do feel for the Indy fans, but I have to take advantage, hoping the Lynx come out strong in the battle for the bottom. Money coming in on the Fever tonight, perhaps because of the Lynx’s 4 point second quarter in their last one, so just a small play in a buy low spot.
We got two MLB plays, including one dog tonight at my Patreon!
I started the week with a nice 2-1, +1.15u night! I’m back today with 2 more plays, including my first multiunit play of the MLB season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Giants TT OVER 4.5(+105) vs Rockies–8:45 PM CT
This is my first multiunit play of the MLB season, and it couldn’t come in a better spot. The Giants absolutely mash righties at home due to the favorable wind that often blows out to the bay in RF and their ability to stack lefties in their lineup. They’ll get a dream matchup facing Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has given up an astounding 40 hits through 24 innings this season and thus holds a 1.88 WHIP. However, 4 of his 5 starts have come at Coors Field, a park he’s become accustomed to. In his one road start this season, he gave up 10 hits and 5 ER in Detroit, and last year, he held a 5.05 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the road. As insurance, the Rockies rank dead last in bullpen WHIP and gave up 3 runs to the Giants in the later innings last night. This is a great opportunity to back the Giants lineup in a spot they thrive in, and the fact that we’re getting this at plus-money is a steal.
*MLB(1u): Yankees F5 TT OVER 2.5(+115) vs Blue Jays–7:10 PM CT
Tonight marks the 3rd time the Yankees will face Blue Jays SP Yusei Kikuchi this season and the second time here in the last week. Kikuchi has failed to live up to the hype in the big leagues, holding a career 4.94 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering tonight. He carries a 1.55 WHIP through 5 starts and gave up 1.55 HR/9 last year. The Yankees bats were a bit quiet in their series against the Rangers over the weekend, but this is still a team that ranks 4th in slugging % and can put numbers up in bunches. I attribute their struggles to the fact they had a 3 day break in their schedule more than anything. Toronto’s bullpen has surprised me a bit this year and is well rested after an off day, so I will isolate the first 5 innings and trust the Yanks to take advantage of a familiar and vulnerable arm. I passed last week in a similar spot where the Phillies saw Taijuan Walker for the 3rd time, and Philly erupted for 7 runs in the first 4 innings. I think we see a similar eruption for NYY tonight.
Hey everyone! We’re back with another podcast chatting about the NBA Playoffs and today we’re joined by William Hill! William is a VSiN contributor and host of the VSiN New York Citycast, covering all NY area sports. We have a great conversation about the trajectory of the current NBA playoff picture and who William’s betting on tonight. Check it out!
We’re 41-33 (55.4%) in NBA Playoff Picks and we’re betting MLB, UFC, and more! If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here!
Tuesday Top play card has the NHL Round 1 Game Of The Year with a Perfect System and a Powerful MLB Card led by a 5* MLB Blowout. In the NBA We have Our Highest rated Round 2 Total with a Perfect Game 5 totals system. Soccer Comp Play below.
The Soccer Comp Play in English Premier League is on Liverpool -1 on the Asian Handicap. The Reds should get the multiple goal win here as they have won 7 of 9 in the series and are one of the Top teams in the world right now. They were tied at home 1-1 last out which snapped a 6 fixture win streak. Even with the 3-1 road win last match day it will be hard for Aston Villa to compete here as they have had their struggles through the campaign. Look for Liverpool to coast here. On Tuesday we have a huge card with the NBA 2nd Round TOTAL of the Year, the NHL Round 1 Play of the Year and an MLB Power Cared led by a 5* Diamond Cutter. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we have one of our Best cards on the season going tonight. For the Soccer Play. Go with Liverpool -1 on the Asian Handicap. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
