Running low on time today – Please lmk if you have any questions about our picks; not providing detail in my MLB plays but my DMs and email is open.
It takes talent to SUCK as bad as we did yesterday – let’s get back to some Ws.
NBA Picks:
76ers/Heat under 209.5, 1.5 units and
Heat 1Q -1, 1 unit
This line should keep dropping so we’re taking it now. A return to Miami should meet a return to Heat basketball, and lord knows these home teams are having a good time in the semifinals. Lots of defense, and a lot less Harden (we hope). The Heat should come out, pardon the pun, on fire and motivated to retake this series. I love Miami early, but would not be surprised if Philly covered and won this game.
Lean, Suns -6, and
Suns 1H -3.5, 1 unit, and
Mavs/Suns under 55, 1 unit
For now I’m only leaning the Suns in the full game. If it goes up, we’ll revisit, but the Suns at home love to outrun their opponents and get ahead early, and we have to figure a lot of aspects of this series will regress back to the mean. Phoenix should have more success from beyond the arc especially, and it’s reasonable to assume that the refs might be a little more friendly to Phoenix tonight after some absurd calls in favor of Dallas on Sunday. Love the 1Q to start off contentious and physical after some of the altercations going on in this series (on court and off the court). 55 is too much.
MLB Picks:
Athletics ML Game 1 (-108) to win 1 unit
Marlins/D-Backs under 8 (+105), 1 unit
Phillies/Rays under 7, 1.15 units to win 1
Parlay: LAD + NYY to both win, 1 unit to win 1.24 units
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
It’s 11:06 ET and I’m stunned at how bad this game is between Golden State and Memphis. I mean, putrid, pathetic, infuriating.
And then the Boston/Milwaukee total are you kidding me? Did they miss a shot in the 2nd half? Feels like I’m in bizarro world tonight. Is live 5th grade ping-pong on TV right now? Cuz I’d rather watch that.
I’m up and amped so how about an early premium email. More tomorrow.
NBA Picks:
76ers/Heat under 209.5, 1.5 units
This line should keep dropping so we’re taking it now. A return to Miami should meet a return to Heat basketball, and lord knows these home teams are having a good time in the semifinals. Lots of defense, and a lot less Harden (we hope).
Wait on Mavs/Suns
I think this goes up even more. We hope it gets close to 7 so we can take Dallas.
The NHL Playoffs continue as we have some pivotal Game 4’s tonight. The Capitals have taken a 2-1 lead and will look to take a commanding lead in the series over the President trophy winner Florida Panthers. The Flames, who were also heavy favorites in their series with Dallas, have lost two straight and desperately need to regain their scoring touch. Calgary had one of the best offenses all season and have averaged just one goal per game in the first three games of the series. The Rangers who have been outplayed by the Penguins in every game this series, will need Igor Shesterkin to come up big for them tonight after being pulled in Game 3.
Igor Shesterkin over 31.5 Saves (-110) – DraftKings
In the first three games of this series, the Penguins have recorded 47 – 41 -37 shots for in regulation. If the Rangers, want to have a shot in this series, they need to win tonight. Shesterkin was the best goalie in the NHL during the regular season with a +34.1 GSAx and will need to prove that here in Game 4. In every game so far, the Penguins have had more expected goals and I don’t see that changing tonight. Even in Game 2, where the Rangers won, they were still outshot as they have been in every game of this series. In Game 3, Igor was pulled so I’m sure he’s still a little angry about that and I expect him to put on a show tonight.
Florida Panthers in Regulation (-110) – DraftKings
Just like Calgary, the Panthers have been shocked in the first three games. They looked awful in Game 1 and rebounded nicely in Game 2, winning 5-1. However, in Game 3, they struggled, which has been a trend for them on the road all season. Credit to the Capitals as they have found a way to shut down the Panthers high powered offense while getting some good goaltending, especially from Ilya Samsonov. I’m not sure this will be a high scoring affair as we’ve seen in the previous games, but I do like Florida tonight, especially at those odds.
Calgary Flames in Regulation (+104) – Barstool
Plain and simple, the Flames need to win tonight. I talked about this before, but their offense has been horrendous in the first few games. While Dallas has played great so far, especially Jake Oettinger, I’m not sure how much longer they can contain this offense. Jacob Markstom, who announced as a Vezina trophy finalist today, desperately needs to step it up. The Stars have shown that they’re a much better team at home all season but Calgary at plus money is great value especially given the desperation factor.
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
No bet in this game tonight as we have a series future on Colorado -2.5 games, which was out biggest play in the first round. If you’d like to take the Predators ml tonight, feel free to but, I would be very cautious as I still believe the Avalanche will complete the sweep tonight.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics/Tigers UNDER 7(-110)–6:10 PM CT
These are two of the worst offenses in baseball matching up with each other in one of the toughest hitting parks in the league. Not only that, but the wind will be blowing 15 mph straight in from CF tonight in Detroit. Considering these are the bottom 2 teams in slugging %, this should be another snooze fest. Tigers SP Michael Pineda has been a reliable arm over the entirety of his career(1.19 career WHIP), and that has carried over into this campaign. Athletics SP Paul Blackburn has a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season and will match up with a Tigers lineup that has scored less than 2 runs/game over their last 11 games. The Tigers bullpen surprisingly ranks 7th in WHIP this year, and while the A’s bullpen has somewhat underperformed, I think they’re more than equipped to step up in this matchup. These offenses deserve nobody’s trust at the moment.
*MLB(1u): Guardians TT OVER 3.5(+115) @ White Sox–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Michael Kopech became famous as a prospect for consistently hitting triple-digits on the radar gun, but he has lost some velocity after arm issues. An average fastball at 95 mph is nothing to sneeze at, but I still think there is this perception of Kopech that does not match reality. The young righty spent almost all of last season in the bullpen before joining the Sox rotation this year; while he’s looked good through 5 starts, he has walked 4.3 batters/9 and has drawn some favorable matchups. The Guardians rank 1st in the league in OPS vs righties this season and are coming off a really good showing against Toronto over the weekend. I was especially impressed at how well they battled against Alek Manoah yesterday. As Kopech still adjusts towards being a starter, he can’t be expected to go deep into games. The White Sox picked up 1-2 run wins in each of their games in Boston this weekend, but what that also means is the back end of that ‘pen received a ton of usage. When you add on to the fact that Aaron Bummer recently was put on the IL, the White Sox bullpen is not in peak form entering tonight’s matchup. Kopech is a guy I think needs more time as a SP to be trusted, and with the bullpen angle included, I’m inclined to trust the Guardians offense in this one.
*MLB(1u): Rays ML(+115) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
The Rays are 6-1 on their current West Coast road trip and are scoring 5.7 runs/game during that span. They’ll face Noah Syndergaard tonight, another guy who is viewed through the lens of his old self from his time with the Mets. However, through 24 innings, Syndergaard has recorded just 14 strikeouts and was hit around by the Red Sox in his last outing. While I think he was a good pickup by the Angels, he’s simply not the dominant force at this level that he used to be. Tampa Bay was the best road offense in the league last year, and that seems to be carrying over into this campaign. Rays SP Jeffrey Springs has looked masterful to start off his ‘22 campaign, but he now embarks on a new journey entering the Rays rotation. The Angels are a tough lineup that can hit around lefties, but the bulk of tonight’s workload will be placed on the Rays bullpen. Considering their ‘pen ranks 2nd in virtually every category, that should bode well for the road team. The Angels deserve credit for their fast start, but I don’t price them as highly as the oddsmakers in these caliber of matchups yet. The Angels lost by 4 to the Nats at home on Saturday and needed a 3-run 9th inning to pull off the win yesterday. I’ll trust a reliable Rays bunch at the +115 price.
Who’s ready for an early matinee play?? I have my lone premium play for today below for all OddsBreakers members!! Best of luck if you tail!!
Sign up NOW before you miss out on my Discounted MLB Totals Monthly Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
The Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees are playing afternoon baseball to make up for a PPD game earlier in the year. Last night the Rangers were able to beat the Yankees 4-2 and I am sure the Bronx Bombers are gonna be looking to bounce back. The Yankees are hosting at New Yankee Stadium and their starting pitcher will be lefty Nestor Cortes while the Rangers will be starting right-hander Jon Gray. Every one of Gray’s starts have been on the road, where he owns a 1.50 HR/9 and a 4.66. Hitters have gotten to him quickly and are slugging .583 with 2 homeruns and 7 runs scored in 6 innings pitched for the first time through the order and own a 7.70 FIP against this Yankees roster. Meanwhile, Cortes is having the best start of his career, posting a 1.05 WHIP, .298 BABIP and 2.47 FIP. The Yanks are 15-12 this year on the run line and are 14-12 when favored on the run line. New York is also 6-4 on the run line in their last ten games played. Giancarlo Stanton has the most at-bats against Jon Gray and owns a .333 batting average with a home run and some RBIs. The runs wont stop after the Rangers turn to their pen. Texas has one of the worst bullpens in the league and it looks like a nice day for runs in the Bronx. Look for Stanton and company to get this offense rolling early and drive the dagger into the Rangers hearts today. Take NYY -1.5
Ass-kicking in MLB and things went a bit awry in our late-NBA game, too. I’ll try to be more proactive and let you guys/gals know ahead of time if I may be live betting an NBA game and posting it on Twitter. We got an extra win yesterday by betting PH/DAL under 233.5 live. We don’t count that as part of our premium record, that wouldn’t be fair to you, but take advantage and maybe set my Twitter account to alarm you if/when I post those plays. If I ever think I’m in a position to live bet or I think there could be an opportunity, I’ll do my part to let you know.
Onto today’s plays! 41-31 (57%), +11.4 units in the NBA playoffs thus far. Let’s truck on, and check out the NHL plays below!
NBA Picks:
Celtics/Bucks under 212, 1.5 units
We figured this total might rise and we’re happy to take advantage. Not one of these games has gotten close to that number, and this game should be as contentious as any other. Game fours are always hard to predict, especially when it’s a 2-1 situation and the series favorite is still on the road. This game is a pick-em for a reason and we’re staying away from picking a side, but close games are generally better for the under, since that means the final 4 minutes or so will be slow, highly contested, and probably low-scoring. If this game starts fast, this might be a situation where we look to hammer a live total under again.
Grizzlies/Warriors 1H over 109, 1.5 units
There was a noticeable difference when Ja Morant was out of the Grizzlies lineup from late March to early April, and it wasn’t bad news for Memphis. The Grizzlies’ pace and offensive efficiency both increased a few ticks, which might be strange for some of us but we see that often when a star like Ja is out of a lineup. Well-coached teams with good camaraderie (like Memphis) tend to rally together and put out over-the-top performances in support of their leader. That’s especially true if they’re facing inferior opponents. I can’t pull the trigger on Memphis +10 tonight and I would lean Golden State, actually. Memphis was impressive without Ja this year but this is the playoffs and the Warriors’ defense is rounding into form. At home, I would expect Golden State to succeed on both ends of the floor, just like we saw in game three, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they blew out the Grizzlies. In the first half, Memphis should fly up and down the court in an attempt to overwhelm the Warriors, and we’ve seen Golden State adopt the tempo of other teams when they’re rattled. The game thins out and slows down late, but I like a quick start and a lot of points at the start.
MLB Picks:
Brewers -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units
The Brewers have completely owned the Reds so far this season and now Luis Castillo will get his first start today; tough opening gig. Castillo experienced significant negative regression in spurts last season and he’s certainly capable of being exposed. Woodruff has yet to show his best stuff and we expect a very solid game for him against a fledgling Cincinnati club at home, especially off a win.
Rays/Angels under 7.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
The Angels have struggled and produced considerably less slugs/HRs against left handed pitching, and Springer (0.69 ERA over 13 innings) has looked impressive. We love some Syndergaard and trust him to keep the Rays bats at bay, too. Under is fitting here.
NHL Picks:
Capitals ML (+165), 1 unit
We’re looking for value in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and look no further than DC. The Capitals took control of their series on Saturday, out-muscling and pacing the Panthers and taking advantage of the power play when it mattered, as their known to do. Capital One Arena was rocking and we know it will be again – mucho value on the dog.
Predators ML (+210), 1 unit
The Avalanche have been rather dominant in this series, we know, but this is Nashville’s chance to snag a home win before the series likely ends in Colorado. We’ve seen this story before. Taking the value.
Well Jesus H., UFC kicked our ass last night. What a crazy event. Ferguson got caught, Norma didn’t care about winning, Rose looked like she was on drugs, and objectively (and this was just a bad call by us), Oliveira is built differently. What an animal. Remember that in his next UFC fight.
The NBA did us well and we’re back at MLB today, too. Let’s go!
NBA Picks:
Suns/Mavs under 215, 1 unit
We think this number will fall and fall after game 3 and for good reason – the Mavs, at home, controlling the tempo, turns out to be a pretty damn slow game, as we expected. This game will be VERY contentious as Phoenix looks to regain control but now Dallas has renewed confidence. Expect tenacious defense and hopefully not too many fouls.
Heat/76ers 1H under 107, 1 unit
A lot of the same reasons as above, I just like the 1H better. Miami CANNOT allow the same type of efficiency from Maxey and other non-Embiid/Harden players, and Philly played impressively on defense in game 3. I expect a slow, highly competitive start.
Heat ML (+110), 1 unit
A team as disciplined and buttoned up as the Heat will respond and respond with ferocity today. That’s why we like the under in the 1H, but it’s also why we like the Heat today. The Sixers are capable of playing blue-collar basketball for stints, but it doesn’t last. Embiid and Harden didn’t have a great game 3 and I expect more of the same in this one, and let’s face it – as great as Maxey was in game 3, that’s not going to happen again. A lot of shots were dropping and Philly had a ton of momentum, but if there’s anything we’ve learned about the 76ers, they don’t stay hot and they’re overly-reliant on Embiid. I think this will be a close, entertaining game, but the Heat are too physical for the 76ers to keep fending off.
MLB Picks:
Brewers/Braves under 8, 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Ashby has been solid and Morton is overdue to show more command.
Yankees -1.5, 1.2 units to win 1
Yankees smash spot behind Cole – Texas has looked better but this is a great spot for NYY on a Sunday off a loss.
Jays/Guardians over 7.5, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
We love Manoah but I don’t trust Cleveland to keep this game in range. The Blue Jays’ power is considerable and this line is sneaky – Pilkington probably isn’t as good as his first start, and this is a good test.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The NHL Comp play for Mothers Day Sunday is on Tampa Bay at 7:00 eastern. Tampa applies to a nice system that has cashed the last 5 times playing on home favorites off a home favored loss if they allowed 4 or more goals and were off a prior road dog win and prior road dog loss. The lightning are 5-0 on Sundays and have won 20 of 26 off a3+ goals home loss. The Leafs have lost 7 of 10 as a road dog. With the Lightning 17-0 in the playoffs when playing off a loss. We will back them here to even things up. Play on Tampa Bay. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 5-0-0
Date Day Season Team Opp Site Rest P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr Saves Save Pct ot
May 02, 2018 Wed 2017 Sharks Knights home 1&1 2-0 1-0 1-0 4-0 -147 5.5 4 W U & & 0
May 01, 2019 Wed 2018 Stars Blues home 1&1 2-1 2-0 0-1 4-2 -118 5.0 2 W O & & 0
May 02, 2019 Thu 2018 Avalanche Sharks home 1&1 0-0 1-0 2-0 3-0 -125 6.0 3 W U & & 0
May 17, 2019 Fri 2018 Blues Sharks home 1&1 2-0 0-0 0-1 2-1 -138 5.5 1 W U & & 0
Jun 03, 2019 Mon 2018 Blues Bruins home 1&1 2-1 0-1 2-0 4-2 -108 5.5 2 W O & & 0
May 08, 2022 Sun 2021 Lightning Maple Leafs home 1&1 – – – – -120.0 7.5
CALGARY, AB - APRIL 21: Dallas Stars Center Jamie Benn (14) and Calgary Flames Center Trevor Lewis (22) take a face-off during the second period of an NHL game where the Calgary Flames hosted the Dallas Stars on April 21, 2022, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames will clash for the third time this series, and the first time in Dallas. The Flames went 25-12-4 on the road this year. Dallas was an impressive 27-10-4 at home in the regular season. Something will have to give here as we get ready for the puck drop at 9:30 pm Eastern Time.
The goalie matchup is projected to stay the same for the third game of this series as it has been all along. Jacob Markstrom and Jake Oettinger will face off once again. Both have been stellar in this series with Oettinger giving up 1 goal in the first game and Markstrom giving up 2 in the second game. I don’t think any of that changes here as both goaltenders should be on their “A” games.
Both of these teams have also struggled on the power play, but fantastic on the penalty kill. The Flames are 1/8 on their power play, and the Stars are 0/7 on theirs. There were half the number of penalties (5) in game 2 than there were in game 1 (10). Both these teams have played disciplined hockey all year. No reason that should change here.
If we look at the advanced stats, the Flames have a bit of an edge in the Corsi and Fenwick percentages. This means they’re getting better looks at scoring goals than the Stars. Neither team has been able to break through and put very many into the back of the net though. The expected goals for with both of these teams over the regular season has sat right about 5.7. In this playoff series the expected goals for have dropped to 3.95.
Dallas is a very defensive minded team and loves playing low scoring games, as they have done so all year. With this series tied 1-1, I don’t see there being any panic about either team rushing to score goals when one side or the other scores. Dallas hasn’t played a ton of fast up and down the ice hockey this season and I don’t expect to see that here either.
I believe the first two games of this series have shown us what we’re going to get here. A very defensive, slow paced, physical series. Either team can take it, but it will be a fairly low scoring series.
The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place today at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the American Triple Crown of horse racing. It is historically run on the first Saturday in May. First run in 1875, this 1 1/4 mile—or 10 furlongs—race runs on the dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, where it has been held since its inaugural running in 1875.
Mo Donegal enters the Kentucky Derby fresh off a win in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes two weeks. In terms of speed figures that was his best race so far which is an encouraging sign. Joel Rosario was the jockey on him in that race, but Irad Ortiz Jr will return to the reins in the Derby. Irad Ortiz has ridden Mo Donegal three times before finishing inside the money in every one of those races. In addition to the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, Mo Donegal has also won the G2 Remsen Stakes and G3 Holy Bull Stakes.
Happy Jack
Owner: Calumet Farms
Trainer: Doug F O’ Neill
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Odds: 30-1
Happy Jack has four starts to his name, all coming this year. In those four starts, he has only won one of those races. That win came back in his debut where he won a $67k Maiden Special Weight. Since breaking his maiden, he has entered three graded stakes finishing inside the money twice. In his last race, he finished 3rd in the G1 Santa Anita Derby losing to Derby favorites Talba and Messier. He went off at 25-1 in that race and never stood a chance of winning sneaking up late to grab third down the stretch. Prior to that race, he finished second in the G2 San Felipe Stakes and G3 RB Lewis Stakes. Rafael Bejarano will get the nod for the first time on Happy Jack as A Cedillo has ridden him in the previous four races.
Epicenter
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Odds: 7-2
Epicenter enters the race as one of the morning line favorites and deservedly so. He has won his last two races, the G2 Louisiana Derby and G2 Risen Star Stakes. In his six career starts, he won four of them and finished second once. The only time he finished outside the money was in his debut where he ran 6th. Oddly enough his speed figures haven’t been great as he haven’t impressive as he has yet to break 100 in Equibase speed figures.
Summer is Tomorrow
Owner: Michael Hilary and Negar Burke
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Odds: 30-1
Summer is Tomorrow is coming off a 2nd place finish in the UAE Derby where he was beaten by fellow Derby entrant Crown Pride. Prior to that race he was primarily a sprinter but seemed to handle the additional distance well. He has seven starts to his name finishing first twice and second three times.
Smile Happy
Owner: Lucky Seven Stable
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Corey J Lanerie
Odds: 20-1
Smile Happy finished 2nd in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes in his last out losing to a morning line favorite, Zandon. Prior to that race, he ran 2nd in the G2 Risen Star Stakes losing to another one of the morning line favorites, Epicenter. He’s increased in distance the past two races from 1 1/16 to 1/8 Miles and seemed to handle the distance much better in his last start. Corey Lanerie will remain on Smile Happy and he has ridden him in all four of his career starts. In his career, he has finished inside the money in every race finishing first and second twice.
Messier
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, LLC, …
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Odds: 8-1
Messier, named after 5 times Stanley Cup winner Mark Messier enters this race off a 2nd place finish in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He lost to Zandon, who’s another morning line favorite. Prior to that race, he won he G3 RB Lewis Stakes. In his two other stakes races, he finished 2nd in the G2 Los and 1stin the G3 Bob Hope Stakes. He raced extremely well when he won the G3 RB Lewis Stakes but struggled a bit in his last outing. He has the speed to compete here and if he can repeat his performance in that race, he certainly has a shot to win.
Crown Pride (JPN)
Owner: Teruya Yoshida
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Odds: 20-1
Crown Pride is coming off an impressive win in the G2 UAE Derby where he defeated fellow entrant Summer is Tomorrow. He has four starts to his name, winning three of those races and finishing outside the money in one of them. In that lone start, he didn’t finish in the top 3, the track conditions were less than ideal. This is an impressive horse that can handle the distance but will have a new jockey on him in the Derby.
Charge It
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Odds: 20-1
Charge It, has only raced three times in his short career but has shown that he has the speed to compete in this race. He finished 2nd in the G1 Florida Derby in his last start which is the only graded stakes race that he’s competed in. In that race, he struggled getting out of the gate but still made a late charge to run second. Prior to that race, he finished 1st and 2nd in a $60k Maiden Special Weight.
Tiz the Bomb
Owner: Magdalena Racing
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Brian J Hernandez, Jr
Odds: 30-1
Tiz the Bomb, has the most experience out of any horse in this race along with Barber Road, with eight starts in his career. He’s won his last two races which include the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. In the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes he defeated fellow entrant Tawny Port and Rich Strike, who ran 2nd and 3rd respectively. In that race, he showed some speed which he hasn’t displayed since November of last year when he finished 2nd in the G1 BC Juvenile Turf. Brian Hernandez Jr will get the mount, a horse he has ridden several times before, so he should be comfortable on him.
Zandon
Owner: Jeff Drown
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Odds: 3-1
Zandon, enters the race as one of the morning line favorites and is coming off a nice win in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes. He was very impressive in that race with a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and won by over two lengths. In his four career starts, he has never finished outside the money. He’s raced in two other graded stakes races, the G2 Risen Star and G2 Remsen, where he ran 3rd and 2nd respectively. Out of all the horses in the field, he is the only one to have captured a G1 Stakes.
Pioneer of Medina
Owner: Sumaya U. S. Stables
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Odds: 30-1
Pioneer of Medina, has failed to win both of the grades stakes races he’s entered. In both of those races, he lost to Epicenter so unless something changes, I don’t think he can beat him here. His last win comes back in January when he won a $50k Allowance Optional Claimer at Fairgrounds. His workouts have been encouraging coming into the Derby but I just don’t see him competing here as he lacks the speed needed.
Taiba
Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Mike E Smith
Odds: 12-1
Taiba, enters the Kentucky Derby with the least experience out of any horse, but is also the only horse that’s undefeated. He has two starts to his name winning the G1 Santa Anita Derby in his last out. He broke his maiden back in March of this year, winning a Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita. Despite the lack of experience, this horse has shown that he can compete in this race. He handled the distance well in the SA Derby and has had some great workouts.
Simplification
Owner: Tami Bobo and Tristan de Marc
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Odds: 20-1
Simplification, is coming off a 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby where he lost to fellow entrants White Abarrio and Charge It. He ran one of his best races, in that start but just couldn’t beat them down the stretch. Prior to that race, he won the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes winning by over three lengths. Ortiz has been on the mount in those past two races and will retain the reigns here. His last few workouts have been good but again, just not sure he has the speed needed.
Barber Road
Owner: WSS Racing, LLC
Trainer: John Alexander Cruz
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Odds: 30-1
Barber Road, is one of the most experienced horses in this race but has failed to find the winners circle since November 2021. However, in those five races following that win, he has finished 2nd four times and third once. He did run well in his last outing in the G1 Arkansas Derby losing to Cyberknife. Just like several other horses in this race, I don’t see him competing due to his lack if speed and his previous experience against the favorites.
White Abarrio
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, LLC and LA Milagrosa
Trainer: Saffie A Joseph, Jr
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Odds: 10-1
White Abarrio, has won his past two races which includes the G1 Florida Debry and the G3 Holy Bull Stakes. In those races, he defeated several other Derby entrants including Charge It, Simplification, and Mo Donegal. He’s recently shown some speed this year that we haven’t seen before which is extremely encouraging. His workouts have been phenomenal as of late and with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, he’s undefeated.
Cyberknife
Owner: Gold Square, LLC
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Odds: 20-1
Cyberknife, is another horse that enters the Derby in great form, winning his past two races. In his last start he won the G1 Arkansas Derby defeating Barber Road. He did enter a graded stakes prior to that one where he ran 6th in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Besides that race, he has finished inside the money in all six career starts.
Classic Causeway
Owner: Kentucky West Racing, LCC and Clarke M. Cooper
Trainer: Brian A Lynch
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Odds: 30-1
Classic Causeway, has won tow of his last three starts. During that stretch of races, he won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, and the G3 Sam F Davis Stakes but finished 11th in his last race in the G1 Florida Derby. He set the pace in that race but gave way down the stretch and was never pressed. It’ll be interesting to see how he does after that performance. Prior to that race, his last two we’re extremely encouraging and looked to able to compete in this race. At 30-1, he’s definitely work a look in exotic bets.
Tawny Port
Owner: Peachtree Stable
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Odds: 30-1
Tawny Port, will make his first appearance in a grade one stakes. He has raced in three graded stakes prior, finishing 1st in the G3 Lexington Stakes, 2nd in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, and 5th in the G2 Risen Star Stakes. Tawny Port will have Ricardo Santana on the mount who’s riding this horse for the first time.
Zozos
Owner: Barry and Joni Butzow
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Odds: 30-1
Zozos, has adjusted well to the additional distances as indicated by his last two races. He’s coming off a 2nd place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby where he ran second to Epicenter. In that race he ran his best speed figure and will need to improve on that to have a chance here. That 2nd place finish was his lone second place of his career as he won his two races before then.
Rich Strike
Owner: RED TR-Racing, LLC
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
Odds: 30-1
Rich Strike, gets the call as Ethereal Road is a late scratch. He has yet to win a race since September 2021 and has only competed in one graded stakes in his career which was his last race. In that race he finished 3rd in the G3 Lexington Stakes. Fellow entrants Tiz the Bomb and TawnyPort finished 1-2. His speed has been improving in each race but I’m just not sure if he competes here especially given his post position.
Picks:
I just want to preface this as it does affect my picks for the Derby. The weather isn’t looking all that great. It’s expected to rain in the morning so I’m not sire we’re going to get picture perfect conditions. The track won’t be muddy but the front runners will have a slight advantage in this race.
TO WIN:
(12) TAIBA
Taiba doesn’t have a ton of experience but he has proven he’s proven he’s a major contender in just two races. If the weather is bad, it shouldn’t affect him as he does like to run near the front. The issue is that he has raced in small fields so we’ll see how he handles nineteen other runners.
(5) SMILE HAPPY
Smile Happy, has lost to Zandon and Epicenter in the past two races. However, he hasn’t been blown out losing by two lengths in each of those races. He’s one of the younger colts in this race but given his pedigree I think he offers the best longshot odds.
EXACTA BOX:
5, 12, 10
TRIFECTA BOX:
5, 12, 10, 15
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
