Sunday card has 2 Rare 6* Plays one in the NBA and one in MLB Plus the Sunday night ESPN Play and more. NHL Comp play below
The NHL Comp play for Sunday is on Winnipeg in their last home game at 2:00 eastern. The Jets wrap things up here at home against Seattle. The System in this game is to play against road dogs in their final game off a home win vs an opponent off a home dog win. The Jets are finish with momentum having won 3 straight here. Seattle had lost 6 straight playing a 4th game in 6 nights and may not be too motivated here after coming off a last home game win. Look for the Jets to win this one. On Sunday we 2 powerful 6* releases just about as high as we go. On ein the NBA and one in MLB. There is also a play in the ESPN Sunday night MLB Game and the other NBA Afternoon game. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter toJump on as we start May off fast. For the NHL Play. Go with Winnipeg. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Hi All! After perusing the MLB slate for quite some time, nothing stands out of value to me. We have a lot of big favorites who will likely win, but I’m not willing to expose our bankroll to that, especially with the volatility we typically see in baseball.
Hey All! Another day, another win! We’re 19-6 the last 8 days in NBA bets and we’re still winning in the major leagues, too. No basketball today so I’ll give some more thoughts on MLB. Lots of 2 unit plays below in future NBA contests – I love these opportunities to build our bankroll and I’m BULLISH on Golden State in the next series. Let’s get it!
NBA Picks:
Bucks +4.5, 2 units
We didn’t get the +5 – fucking fuck – but as big of a Celtics believer as I am, this line is still too inflated. The Bucks are still my #1 team in the East and until Boston proves they can hang with the most dominant player on earth and an experienced, championship team, we’re taking the dog. I have Milwaukee at +1.
Warriors 1H -2 or less, 2 units
Warriors 1H -2.5 full game, 2 units
This is a top play of mine for obvious reasons and while the 1H line isn’t out everywhere yet, it can’t be over 2 if GS is favored by -2.5 full game. The Grizzlies will only have 1 day in between games to rest, and while they showed impressive grit and tenacity in their series against Minnesota, the Timberwolves are a highly flawed team with a very questionable defense. Golden State is neither of those. The more experienced Warriors will come into this contest rested, motivated, and without nerves. These guys have been here before. Taking GS early and full game, and expect Curry to get hotter and hotter as this series goes on. Memphis won’t be able to hang with the space that he and the other Warrior guards can create.
76ers TT under 99 (EVEN), 1 unit
The 76ers will be without Embiid, a major blow for their championship hopes, but they wouldn’t get there either way. The Heat are too good and the next team they would face, if they found a way to get past Miami, would be an even tougher matchup. Without Embiid in game 1 and now a team more dependent on Harden, the Heat should have little issue eliminating “the beard” and Maxey and forcing Philly’s ancillary players to make shots. I don’t trust it, I don’t see it. Miami will slow this game down and annoy the shit out of the 76ers all series.
MLB Picks:
Giants -1.5, 1.1 units to win 1
The fledgling Nationals found their bats last night, good for them, but now they face a much better pitcher and they won’t present the same challenge on the mound. SF takes this at home by margin.
Padres -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
I mean, it’s the Padres vs. the Pirates, first of all, and Brubaker has not looked good, typical, while Manaea seems back to form.
O’s 1st 5 ML, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Spencer Watkins has shown a ton of promise and while Eovaldi might be Boston’s most reliable pitcher, there’s been nothing reliable about their bats. Baltimore is at home on a sunny day and this is a great spot for the O’s to get an early lead.
UFC Thoughts: I didn’t have time to cap UFC this week but from prior knowledge, here are my leans:
Font (-125)
Collier (+115)
Jotko (-182)
Figueiredo (+107)
Enjoy your weekend, people! Appreciate you all!
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Some interesting line movement on this game as money is coming to the over as we get closer to game time yet total came down from 229 open to 228.5. That has me worried about the over on the game and the 228.5 is right at the season average between these two in Minnesota. Perhaps the Quant/ numbers guys simply hit that open because of that average. I like Memphis in this one as I think they have nothing to lose here but I prefer to look at the total because I think this care-free attitude will lend to them pushing offensively.
We know Minnesota can score and defense is not their strength but what I like are the trends for both to the 1Q over on the season and in this series. 1Q average for the season series is at 62, 59 in games in MIN. I’ll take the chance with both teams getting out quick!
Check out more of my plays at my Patreon where I’ve been heating up!
Earlier I posted my round one impressions, which can be found by browsing the NFL content page. This is my full, round two (and beyond) NFL Draft Report, In this report I summarize what happened for each team in round one and speculate on what they should, and might do in round two.
BONUS ADDITION: For the 13th year in a row, I will include a column entitled “Experts Say”. I’ll be referring to four different analysts that have day two mocks. The mocks I chose are from those who I trust in the field. Absolutely no fluff mocks or “TV” analyst mocks were included. Last year I used five mocks from the underground sources I value, but this year I found only four before needing to finish the day two article. I complete my analysis before I compile what the five analysts say, as I do my part independently and don’t want to be initially influenced. For purposes of this report, my analysts will be called “experts”. I don’t expect perfect matches, but my experts should be able to hone in on team needs and hopefully, player value.
I’ll now go pick by pick, with early impressions from day one, coupled with looks for day two. Feel free to have this report handy while viewing round two to see how everything plays out! There’s even a place where you can insert the actual pick!
33: Tampa
Round one impression: No pick. Traded pick 27 to Jacksonville for this pick and picks 106 and 180. Having the 1st pick on day two and day three is a real perk, as the Bucs get extra time to survey the best players left on the board.
Round two look: I go OL or CB with this pick. OG (Kinnard or Salyer) is the bigger need, but OT or CB offer value as well.
“Experts Say”: It’s all DL say my mockers. Two votes for Logan Hall and two votes for Travis Jones. Hall has a beginning of round two grade for me and maybe Tampa is looking at succession planning along the DL, which I wrote about a couple of hours ago, but down at pick 60. I’d still go OL or CB.
THE PICK:
34: Minnesota
Round one impression: Minnesota traded their original pick (12) to the Lions, and pick 46, to get in return picks 32, 34 and 66. It was a steep move down, although there was not really any value at CB or LB at that point. The Vikings took safety Lewis Cine at pick 32. Safety was need area #2 on my board, and Cine’s draft range was right around this spot.
Round two look: Passive as usual, CB and LB are my top areas of need, followed by RG. LB Dean was a 1st round talent on my board. I’d go here or CB.
“Experts Say”: Two CB’s (Booth, Gordon get votes, along with Hall and WR George Pickens. I’ll endorse either CB selection.
THE PICK:
35: Tennessee
Round one impression: Tennessee was a potential trade up candidate in the draft but it was strange how they did business on Thursday. They handed Philly their top WR, A.J. Brown, plus pick 101 to go up to pick 18. They next traded out of pick 26, giving up that pick and pick 101 to obtain picks 35, 69, and 163. Poised to criticize them for the move, they turned around and took my pre-draft #2 WR in Treylon Burks with pick 18. He’s an entirely different WR, but I think he’s very good. Of course, all they’ve done so far is trade a WR and obtained a WR, so the next draft picks better be good.
Round two look: OL, CB and LB are in play. Dean is the only LB I would consider. OG and RT are the offensive needs.
“Experts Say”: Both Willis and Ridder got QB votes, along with my top remaining OT (Raimann) and LB Dean. I could see them looking at Willis, with the other two mock players more than acceptable options for this spot.
THE PICK:
36: NYG
Round one impression: Guess what! With no OL off the board, the NYG did the right thing, going edge with Kayvon Thibodeaux at pick #5. He fits with this new staff. I also like the pick of versatile OT Evan Neal at 7. This is a very nice start.
Round two look: Wanting personally to wait for QB until 2023, DB, LB and DT remain as needs. The Bradberry situation still looms. CB, LB Dean or perhaps DT Logan Hall or another interior DT could be considered.
“Experts Say”: Three votes were given to CB’s who have appropriate grades on my board, with the other vote for LB Dean. The NYG are on their way to making significant improvement based on their round one picks, and this focus would remain spot on.
THE PICK:
37: Houston
Round one impression: Maybe this works out, but a bad team taking a risk on a player with such limited tape is a red flag in my eyes. The ceiling for CB Derek Stingley, drafted 3rd, is sky high. Let’s hope it works. What happened next was stunning. Houston traded back, going from 13 to 15, 124, 162 and 166 in a trade with the Eagles. I’ve never seen the Texans get so much draft value. They took a good OG in Kenyon Green at 15, although his true draft range was in the mid-20’s. His versatility gives the team options along the OL.
Round two look: I’m not done at DB, and pass rusher would fit as well. With so many needs, WR and OL also have major voids. I’d wait on the RB need. Four edge rushers fit here, as do three CB’s.
“Experts Say”: Three votes for RB Breece Hall, and one for a late 3rd round DL. As said above (well before looking at the mocks) I would wait on the RB selection. Then again, Houston does things their way, and maybe the mockers know that.
THE PICK:
38: NYJ
Round one impression: Not only did the Jets have picks 4 and 10, they traded into the 1st round for another pick, getting picks 26/101 for picks 35/69/163 in a fair trade. The Jets correctly took CB Gardner early, and then, closed out of the top OL, correctly went for stud WR Garrett Wilson at 10. The remaining early needs were edge rusher and OL. I don’t know as I write this why top 15 edge rusher Jermaine Johnson dropped on the board, but the Jets stopped the slide with pick 26. Well done!
Round two look: Next up should be OL, with LB Dean another option if he’s still available. The OL was picked clean in round one, but even though it might be a minor reach at pick 38, you have to protect your young QB.
“Experts Say”: Votes include two for OT Raimann, a later rated safety, and LB Dean. The mockers read my mind.
THE PICK:
39: Chicago
Round one impression: No pick. They lost the pick in the move to get QB Justin Fields a year ago.
Round two look: Good morning, Chicago. The value is at WR, and I have six guys remaining with 2nd round grades! Pass rusher is the next option they could consider.
“Experts Say”: Votes are twice for WR Pickens, and once for a decent edge rusher and a late 3rd round CB. We’re all on point.
THE PICK:
40: Seattle
Round one impression: No one ever really knows who Seattle will draft, but they stayed on point getting pass protector Chris Cross at pick 9. There are some things he needs to clean up, but the focus and draft value was fine.
Round two look: Would Seattle move UP to get QB Willis? It’s worth the risk for me. If they wait on QB, hoping for Mayfield, Jimmy G or someone else, then another OT, edge rusher, LB or DB are in play. Yes, this team has more needs than usual.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for Willis and one each for Ridder and Matt Corral tells me the pulse seems to be for this team to address their need at QB. This seems logical, but Seattle also has been known to do things their own way in the draft.
THE PICK:
41: Seattle
Round one impression: See pick 40, above.
Round two look: See pick 40, above.
“Experts Say”: Three votes total for a pair of edge rushers that have this draft range, and one vote for CB Gordon, who has late 1st, early 2nd round range. Clearly, the combination of picks suggested for Seattle would be acceptable in my eyes.
THE PICK:
42: Indy
Round one impression: No pick. The Carson Wentz disaster cost them a 1st round pick.
Round two look: Let’s say hello to GM Ballard, who until last year was on a massive role with draft clout. WR and OL are my top two needs, and like I said above, six WR’s have a 2nd round grade on my need board. LT and RG need upgrades. TE is next.
“Experts Say”: An amazing three votes for WR Skyy Moore, and one vote for Christian Watson, another WR. I have both players as acceptable 2nd round choices, with Watson rated a bit higher.
THE PICK:
43: Atlanta
Round one impression: WR was Atlanta’s #2 need on my board behind about 22 edge rushers. At pick 8 they took WR Drake London. He easily had a top 15-20 grade, and wins with leverage and route smarts, but not speed. It’s not a bad pick at all, but one I would not have made.
Round two look: 18 sacks in 17 games. Previous to that, you were a bottom three sack team for the past decade. If this pick isn’t for an edge rusher, then I give up.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for injured edge rusher David Ojabo, one vote for edge rusher Mafe, and one vote for QB Corral. Atlanta is not likely playoff bound this year. Ojabo had a draft range for 15-25 on my board pre-injury. Go get him and prep him for 2023. That would be exciting!
THE PICK:
44: Cleveland
Round one impression: No pick. That pick was one of many picks traded to obtain QB Watson.
Round two look: LB, WR and OL are my top three areas of need for Cleveland. Unfortunately, my board after Nakoke Dean contains only round three LB’s. WR might offer the most value at pick 44. Don’t rule out Cleveland going UP in the draft.
“Experts Say”: Edge rusher Drake Jackson has a 3rd round grade on my board but he received two votes. Mafe and the higher rated Logan Hall got the other votes as obviously, the mockers see pass rush as the top need. Given the decent ratings of Mafe and Hall, I won’t complain much if they go in this direction, but what LB’s and WR’s are they missing out on if they go this way?
THE PICK:
45: Baltimore
Round one impression: Sitting at pick 14, everyone was waiting for the Ravens to draft DT Jordan Davis. Instead, Philly traded up to get him. Baltimore rebounded by drafting instinctive safety Kyle Hamilton. Speed is an issue, and that caused the draft drop for the once top five talent, but this is an upgrade for a team that faltered defensively in 2021. In a more than mild surprise, the Ravens traded away starting WR Marquise Brown to Arizona and their pick 100 to get pick 23. Baltimore traded that pick to Buffalo, getting pick 25 and pick 130 in return. In the end, the Raven’s got OC Tyler Linderbaum and pick 130 for Marquise Brown and pick 100. Linderbaum fits a need, but Baltimore now has a WR void that needs to be fixed.
Round two look: I’ve heard plenty of praise for the Ravens so far. They drafted two solid players, but edge rusher needs remain, and suddenly the need of WR has been escalated. Both positions remain well-stocked with round two talent.
“Experts Say”: DT Travis Jones got two votes, with a WR and a CB getting the other votes. The Jones tab is likely a reaction to the Ravens being leapfrogged by Philly for DT Davis. I’m not a huge fan of Jones so I would probably go in a different direction.
THE PICK:
46: Detroit
Round one impression: This pick took only a minute to get to the podium. Edge rusher Aldon Hutchinson to the Lions at #2 was easy. Now the hard decisions begin. The Lions made a stunning move up the draft board, trading 32, 34 and 66 to get picks 12 and 46. The trade was surprisingly fair on both sides, but who was the target at 12? Luckily, it was not a QB. WR Jamison Williams comes off a serious injury but once healthy, he’s got top tier potential and the Lions have a glaring WR need.
Round two look: I’m okay NOT going for a QB at this point, especially since the roster is incomplete and gone are picks 32, 34 and 66, traded as noted above for an impact WR and this pick. I’m not opposed to added another edge rusher, but if safeties Brisker or Cook are available, I’m probably looking in that direction.
“Experts Say”: Sam Howell gets a vote, as does Willis, so QB is being touted. The other votes are for DB Cross and CB Booth. Ok, Lion fans, agree or disagree? I’m more interested in safety or another edge rusher.
THE PICK:
47: Washington
Round one impression: There were nine trades in the 1st round. Washington moved from pick 11 to 16, also securing picks 98 and 120 from the Saints. I like the trade value but the drop from WR Williams to the player they chose, Jahan Dotson is relativity significant. OL and DB make more sense, as did going for WR Burks. Let’s see what they do with the extra picks.
Round two look: The OL is a mess, and if they didn’t go safety Hamilton at pick 11, then OL was the way to go at pick 16. Both DB and (multiple) OL needs remain. I’m concerned as to what they might do in this spot.
“Experts Say”: More QB fodder, with Howell and Ridder noted, along with LB Dean and safety Cross. Dean would be a value play at this point. If he’s gone, I stick to my OL need.
THE PICK:
48: Chicago
Round one impression: See pick 39, above
Round two look: This HAS to be for a WR if they didn’t go there at pick 39. Going pass rusher and WR at 39/48 would be ideal.
“Experts Say”: The votes include two for safety, one for WR Watson and one for a DT. Let’s make sure WR is addressed.
THE PICK:
49: New Orleans
Round one impression: That the Saints traded away picks is no surprise. Luckily, they tend to pick talented players when they move up in the 1st round. They traded picks 16, 98 and 120 to get to pick 11, where they took the talented and smooth Chris Olave (WR). He climbed up draft boards and the Saints didn’t want to miss out on him. They stayed at pick 19 and instead of flirting with picking a QB, went to my 2nd area of need (behind WR), selecting the next best OT on the board, Trevor Penning. The Saints get credit once again for adding two safe, and stout draftees.
Round two look: Luckily the needs are small, because the team has this pick, and only two day three picks left in the tank. I’d either go with another WR or look at the best available defensive player (draft dropper) on the board. Okay, with RB Kamara in some legal trouble, what about looking at one of the top two RB’s on the board (Hall or Walker) if they are available?
“Experts Say”: Two votes are for safety, with QB Ridder and RB Kenneth Walker the other projections. I like Walker and he’s ahead of Breece Hall on my pre-draft RB board. He would be on my radar screen depending on how the board plays out.
THE PICK:
50: Kansas City
Round one impression: There was no way KC was sticking with 12 selections on their draft board. They traded picks 29, 94 and 121 to move up to pick 21. With WR already gutted in terms of value, they correctly went CB with Trent McDuffie. That was proper draft range value. KC stayed at 30 and selected edge rusher George Karlaftis. He’s highly rated on my board, yet I thought (as others did) that they would go heavy on speed (edge rusher Mafe). This was a need area, and I love the fact that they took a player with a solid work ethic, but I probably would have looked WR or DT.
Round two look: Armed with ten remaining picks that they do not need to stick with, KC should be a candidate to trade UP from this spot. WR needs are obvious at this point. I’d trade up to get one. The only other choice here is for a run stopper.
“Experts Say”: Three votes for WR, although one of the votes is for a day three guy. The other vote is interesting as it’s for injured edge rusher Ojabo. Go get a WR here, although Ojabo would be a value play at this spot.
THE PICK:
51: Philly
Round one impression: Philly is always interesting on draft day. For the 3rd time in the last four seasons, the Eagles traded UP to rob a team of their presumed target player. The Eagles moved from 15 to 13 to grab talented DT Jordan Davis before Baltimore could take him. This is actually my #1 area of need for the Eagles, but some may be wondering if they really wanted WR Jamison Williams, who was taken at pick 12, right at the time Philly was executing the trade. Philly’s answer? It was a good one, as they traded pick 18 and pick 101 to Tennessee to get their current #1 WR, A.J. Brown. Fascinating!
Round two look: Did GM Howie Roseman sleep last night? Cover safety and edge rusher are next on my list. The top cover safeties may be gone, with former CB Alontae Taylor an intriguing 3rd round possibility (just not at pick 51). Philly likes to stockpile DL to use in a rotation, so edge rusher or OLB might be the way they look.
“Experts Say”: It’s all defense, with edge, LB and two votes for CB. One of the CB’s, Marcus Jones is painfully short but offers elite return skills. Let’s see if they even keep this pick!
THE PICK:
52: Pittsburgh
Round one impression: Speechless? QB Kenny Pickett, selected with pick 20 has experience, accuracy, poise, and a low floor. The hometown product also has a low ceiling, and as I’ve said, hasn’t played in true, after Thanksgiving conditions where his hand size (lots of NCAA fumbles) might come into play. Mike Tomlin spent countless amount of time with every QB prospect, and maybe this is as much an indictment on Malik Willis as it is an endorsement of Pickett. That we’ll find out down the road.
Round two look: No one is better and drafting WR’s than this team. This is a prime spot to get one, although more OL talent would not be a bad 2nd option. A 3rd option is DB, but that’s one area the Steelers have had some misfires.
“Experts Say”: LB, safety, and two CB projections. I’d try to go offense 1st, as this area has let them down in the recent past.
THE PICK:
53: Green Bay
Round one impression: Hey, it started bad, but then it actually and finally got good! One week ago, LB Quay Walker was expected to be drafted around pick 40. Today, his draft prop range was 22.5 to 26.5. He even beat that, going 22nd. This is the 3rd time in a row GB has chosen a player who had a meteoric draft position rise out of nowhere. LB was need #3, behind WR and DL. The best DL on the board was DT Devonte Wyatt, who would have been a top 15 pick if not for some troubling off-field issues. GB took him at pick 28, finally acknowledging their longstanding rush D issues. Wyatt is a true run stopper.
Round two look: GB currently has picks 53 and 59. They’ve addressed needs two and three on my board, so now it’s time to (finally) look WR. If they stay at these picks, I’d do NOTHING ELSE except add a WR and an OL. Will they target a specific WR?
“Experts Say”: Four votes, for opinions. TE McBride is interesting, as this is his range. Edge rusher Mafe would have some value, but I’d go in a different direction. WR Shakir has a late 3rd round grade but might move up if paired with Rodgers (person-team fit). The suggested OT has late 3rd round value. I’ll likely prefer that they stick with going WR or OL in this spot.
THE PICK:
54: New England
Round one impression: NE apparently had a player in mind, and didn’t mind dropping back before selecting OG Cole Strange at pick 29. They picked up picks 94 and 121 as well in the trade from original pick 21. They missed out on OC Linderbaum and OT Tyler Smith, but likely only cared about versatile OG/OT Kenyon Green, who went before his expected draft range. Strange had a pre-draft range of 50-60 on my board, so this is a bit of a reach for the 1st round, but he’s solid, smart, and very strong.
Round two look: Wait, NE is participating in this draft? I won’t pretend to know exactly what position they are targeting, but again, this team values positional versatility and change of direction skills (cone drill). Round two has occasionally been the place where they have had serious issues drafting players of value. For fans of this team, let’s hope that can be fixed.
“Experts Say”: It’s all LB, with Wyoming’s Muma, Tindall and two votes for the violent Leo Chenal the choices. All three guys have slightly lower value than this pick slot. We’ll see what NE thinks (I’d trade up, they have plenty of draft capital).
THE PICK:
55: Arizona
Round one impression: My best guess was that WR Burks was the guy Arizona targeted in this draft. He went early (18), and the Cardinals pivoted, trading pick 23 to Tennessee for pick 101 and starting WR A.J. Brown. I view Brown as an upgrade to departed WR Kirk and also better than what they could have obtained in this draft. GM Keim is one of my favorites and I think he got value here, and pick 101 is an added asset.
Round two look: Almost every remaining bolded need on my board is on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t think there will be much 2nd round value left at LB, so CB is my next look. I expect there to be 1-2 options at pick 55. OL could be considered.
“Experts Say”: Four votes, four different positions. OG Kinnard has proper draft value. The DT and CB noted have 3rd round value. WR Thornton seems like overkill at one position. Again, I’d look defense first.
THE PICK:
56: Dallas
Round one impression: Dallas talks a big game but they haven’t been big in the 1st round trade market most of the last decade. Needing OL, they did about the best they could do by taking OT Tyler Smith at 24. Smith had a very late 1st round or early 2nd round grade, but was next man up for availability.
Round two look: After addressing need #1, Dallas might next go to my clear #2 need, that being safety. I wouldn’t be that upset if they double up along the OL (OG), or restocked the DL. There’s also going to be intriguing options at TE by this time.
“Experts Say”: Three votes for DT or DE, plus UCLA TE Dulcich.
THE PICK:
57: Buffalo
Round one impression: Whew! Many said RB, but when the dust settled, Buffalo moved up four spots to secure CB Kalir Elam. CB was by far their most critical area of need. The move up two spots (to pick 23) cost them pick 130. I personally doubt that Dallas would ever have looked CB at 24, but comparable CB’s Booth (injuries) and Gordon (slower) were obviously not close enough on their personal draft board or the Bills would have waited.
Round two look: The only remaining bolded need on the board is OL. I noted how hard Buffalo was scouting RB’s. I also discussed how they could trade UP to get one. I’m not opposed to them getting a top tier RB or an impact TE in this spot.
“Experts Say”: Apparently, its RB time, as the votes are Walker times two, Spiller and Breece hall. If they can’t find a fit at OL then ok, let’s allow a RB selection here.
THE PICK:
58: Atlanta
Round one impression: See pick 43, above
Round two look: I think they may be in play for QB here, or at pick 43, but is that wise? This team needs so much, including more WR’s, safety help, RT, and LB. Oh, and by the way, they still need at least 21 edge rushers (not kidding). Help!
“Experts Say”: Two LB’s get votes, along with RB Walker and CB Corral. Make sure edge rusher has been addressed, and then please, draft real football talent and not developmental talent this high in the draft.
THE PICK:
59: Green Bay
Round one impression: See pick 53, above
Round two look: See pick 53. I expect a trade up for WR. If that doesn’t happen, yes, get a WR and restock your OL.
“Experts Say”: It’s all WR, with Tolbert twice, Pierce and Watson the guys. Watson at 59 is the best value, but all are fine.
THE PICK:
60: Tampa Bay
Round one impression: See pick 33, above
Round two look: Again, it’s OL and CB for me at picks 33 and here at 60. I know they could also look at DL, as with DT Suh’s situation in limbo, succession planning should start soon. These are the only positions I’d look at.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for an interior OL, and two voted for TE McBride. McBride is good, but for THIS team I go OL.
THE PICK:
61: San Francisco
Round one impression: No pick. The 1st round pick was used to go up and draft QB Lance in the 2021 draft.
Round two look: SF was so close to getting to, and possibly winning last year’s Super Bowl. Now looming over them is the Deebo Samuel situation and the Jimmy G situation. I FULLY expect the 49ers to move up in this round, perhaps with a move well into the top part of the round. Bolded needs (in order) are interior OL, LB, CB and safety. WR is not a need if Deebo stays. Either DB slot looks to be the most likely trade up spot in terms of value, but let’s see what happens at the top of the round.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for rounds 3-4 CB’s, one vote for a round 3-4 center, and one vote for a day three DT. I can’t endorse any of the players noted (CB Woolen, CB Taylor-Britt, OC Jurgens, DT Clemons) at least at pick 61. Jurgens is the most intriguing. I think a trade up will be in the works.
THE PICK:
62: Kansas City
Round one impression: See pick 50, above
Round two look: See pick 50, above. I don’t expect KC to stand pat in this 2nd round.
“Experts Say”: Two DL are noted, along with a safety and an interesting WR. I like John Metchie, and this would be a nice person-team fit.
THE PICK:
63: Cincinnati
Round one impression: I wanted a CB, preferably Elam or Gordon to fill their clear top need area. OL was the weak link in the Super Bowl, but that area had been addressed three times in free agency. Elam was gone, but Cincy went for versatile safety Dax Hill instead of Gordon. Hill has incredible speed and cutting skill for safety and is the best “cover” safety in the class.
Round two look: Traditional CB might still get a look, especially if my top choices remain on the board. In fact, I have six rated CB’s that fit in the 2nd round. The OL could still use another starter, and a run defender is clearly another area of need. I think there’s enough talent available to fill one of these needs at pick 63 with a player that has proper draft value.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for OL, both along the interior and both could eventually start at center, a position of need. DL Pascal is lower rated. The other vote is for edge rusher Ojabo. Again, that would be a value pick this low in the draft.
THE PICK:
64 Denver
Round one impression: No pick. Used as part of the trade to get QB Russell Wilson. This pick was from the Von Miller trade.
Round two look: Will Denver stay at pick 64? I’m not sure they are that patient of an organization. Edge rusher, TE and CB are my clear top three needs. The best of the edge rushers will require a trade up. TE McBride would be an exciting fit, and that could require a trade into the mid-to-late 40’s. Some good CBs will also require a trade up, but some CB’s will be here at 64.
“Experts Say”: LB Muma gets two votes, along with LB Troy Anderson and OT Lucas.
THE PICK:
Below is the list of teams currently without picks in round two. They will be listed in draft order using the same recap and evaluation process as the teams above.
65 (and 70): Jacksonville
Round one impression: The Jags need plenty of players, and they opted for top tier potential, taking edge rusher Travon Walker with the #1 overall pick. We’ve never seen someone with this little game tape go 1st overall, but 2021 was a special season for him. Jacksonville traded picks 33, 106 and 180 to Tampa for pick 27, which they used to select LB Devin Lloyd. This was good value, but I hate that they parted with pick 106, as the start of the 4th round is a great place to find hidden gems.
Round three look: Do you want to keep QB Lawrence upright? At least one of these picks MUST be for the OL. WR and DB could be secondary looks.
“Experts Say”: Four of the choices (combining 65 and 70) are for DB’s, with decent safety Cook getting two of the votes. OT Lucas, OG/OC Goedeke, DT Winfrey and CB Taylor-Britt get the other votes. Please protect your QB investment.
THE PICK:
79: LA Chargers
Round one impression: OT Penning was higher rated, but not by much over my #1 OG Zion Johnson. Both players were used on the left side in college. Interestingly enough, LA’s need is on the right side. This was my #1 area of need for the Chargers.
Round three look: LB and stud DT are next on my list. I think they can get a properly rated LB at this spot, and just like LB, two-down run stopers tend to fall on draft day. This means the Chargers should easily find value for one of their next need areas.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for OT, one vote for WR Shakir and one vote for Alabama RB Robinson. I’m looking elsewhere.
THE PICK:
86: Las Vegas
Round one impression: No pick. They lost both their 1st and 2nd round picks in the trade for WR Adams.
Round three look: I have two choices here: OL or impact LB. Picking this far out, I’m guessing what’s left will be someone with more of a developmental skill set. If lucky, maybe someone will fall through the cracks and be here at pick 86. For the record, Vegas has spent a considerable amount of time looking at CB’s, and far less time on OL prospects. That concerns me.
“Experts Say”: Two votes for day three DT’s, plus one vote for LB Chenal and one vote for CB Coby Bryant. Chenal might fit.
THE PICK:
102: Miami
Round one impression: No pick. They used the pick as one of many to obtain WR Tyreek Hill.
Round three look: Miami re-shaped their roster this offseason with a definite 49er slant to it. The staff is far more offensive-minded than the previous (Flores) staff, so I’d pay attention to defensive needs at this spot. I show OLB is primary need #1, ahead of adding a center. The draft team remains, and they’ve been pretty on point in the past when addressing area of need.
“Experts Say”: The OL rules, with three of four selections. A lower rated edge rusher rounds out the list. One guy, OG/OC Fortner can play center. Maybe he fits, but I’d still take a hard look at LB.
THE PICK:
104: LA Rams
Round one impression: No pick. Both their 1st and 2nd round picks were trade for players who contributed to their Super win.
Round three look: Barring a trade up, the LA Rams will be the last team to enter the 2022 draft. Wouldn’t it be wild if their 1st pick is for a punter (Matt Araiza)? My top three needs are multiple OL, CB and edge rusher.
“Experts Say”: Two interior OL get votes, one of them being UCLA’s Rhyan, who I noted in my pre-draft article that they had an interest in. LB and CB were the other votes.
THE PICK:
Heading into Friday, the Carolina Panthers are currently without picks in rounds two and three.
137: Carolina
Round one impression: Needing desperately to move back from pick 6, the Panthers probably received some lowball offers and refused them. Considering how many trades were made after the top ten selections, Carolina should have tried harder. I implored them to do a series of mini-trades, even if it was for lesser value, since they have more needs than draft picks. Regardless, going OL with OT Ickeu Ekwonu was the right move, as OL is a clear vital need.
Round four look: I will research WHY Carolina was unable and/or unwilling to trade back from pick 6, but regardless, here they are with a pick near the back end of the 4th round. As I’ve written and said, I think Carolina won’t wait until this pick, and that means I expect them to trade a high 2023 draft choice to get a day two pick. The needs are many. A trade up could yield a quality TE, a draft dropping edge rusher, or a WR. At THIS point, there is no need to draft a QB, but yes, it will take 2023 draft capital to get Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G. If they stay here, a rated TE or WR might offer the most bang for their buck.
“Experts Say”: No one on my esteemed list offered a pick for Carolina.
I finished in the green each day last weekend(as well as Monday), and I’m looking to keep it rolling this weekend. I’ve got 3 plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+115) vs Diamondbacks–7:15 PM CT
Veteran righty Adam Wainwright will take the hill at Busch Stadium tonight in a role he’s excelled in for almost two decades. At home last year, Wainwright held a brilliant 2.74 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and allowed just 0.8 HR/9. His numbers are a bit inflated this year, but 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road; he twirled 6 shutout innings in his lone home start on Opening Day. The Diamondbacks rank just 25th in runs/game this season and are slugging at the 2nd lowest rate in the league. Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for Arizona tonight, but the lefty has really lost his stuff in recent seasons. He recorded a mere 4.67 ERA last season and also allowed 1.5 HR/9. While he has started off this season nicely, a 1.20 WHIP indicates that his ERA(currently sitting at 1.00) is anything but sustainable. There is not an offense in the league that has performed better than the Cardinals against lefties this season(.849 OPS), and the guys in this order have a great history against Bumgarner. It’s also worth noting that the Diamondbacks bullpen holds the second worst WHIP in the league and is easily one of the bullpens I love going against most. The stars seem to be aligned for a comfortable Cardinals win, so getting +115 on the run line made this an easy decision for me.
*MLB(1u): Rockies ML(-120) vs Reds–7:40 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Rockies -1.5(+160) vs Reds–7:40 PM CT
If you’ve been following the betting lines for the past few days, you’ll notice that the books are throwing out some fishy lines on Reds games. The logic seems to be that: “A 3-17 team has to turn things around at some point, right?”. I’ll say this: The Orioles lost 19 straight games at one point last season, and this does not set up as the spot(or maybe even the series) that the Reds turn things around. The Rockies might’ve just gotten swept on the road in Philadelphia, but they are an absolute juggernaut hitting at Coors Field. Reds SP Hunter Greene is a dazzling prospect and big name, but this is also just his 4th major league start. He’s given up 3 home runs through his first 3 starts, and his velocity was down 4-5 mph in his last start. The Rockies trailed only the Red Sox in home OPS last season, and given they made significant improvements to their lineup in the offseason, I expect that trend to continue. This goes without saying, but I have zero trust in the Reds bullpen given they’ve received a lot of usage in recent days and aren’t good even with rest. Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela coughs up more hits than you’d like, but he had a sub 4.00 ERA at Coors Field last year and allowed just 0.5 HR/9. The Reds play at one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league, yet they still rank 28th in OPS vs righties this season. The Rockies bullpen is slightly more fresh than Cincinnati’s and have performed well at Coors this season. I know this seems fishy, but the logic behind this line is dead wrong, especially in a sport like baseball. Just because a team needs to turn things around doesn’t mean they will. I like Rockies ML as the stronger play but will also sprinkle on the run line at a dream +160 price.
Took most of the month, but we are now positive on baseball and moving in the right direction. Currently riding what the great Lou Brown would call a winning streak. 10-4 Last 14 plays and looking to keep it rolling today. 5 MLB plays on my card, giving one out for free here. You can find the rest of my premium plays here at Theoddsbreakers.com for $50 a month.
The Padres continue their road trip through the doormats of the NL Central today when they open a three game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are coming off a sweep of the Reds where they put up a solid 24 runs in the 3 game set. The Pirates on the other hand were just swept at the hands of the Brewers.
On the mound today for San Diego is Yu Darvish. So far in the early season, as is his normal, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine has come to play. He opened the season with 6 No Hit innings against the Diamondbacks and then gave up 9 runs in an inning and two-thirds vs the Giants. His last two starts have been stellar as he gave up one earned run over 12+ innings vs the Braves and the Dodgers. If his control is on and he is hitting his spots he is as unhittable as anyone in the league. Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Pirates. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and gives up a lot of hard contact. He needs to induce ground balls to be effective, and while he did do that in the minors it has not translated to the major league level yet. He finished last year with a 3.24 ERA in Miami, but with a 4.65 xFip. His first start this year against the Cubs was decent in really cold weather, but his last two vs the Brewers and the Cubs have gone for 6 IP 15 Hits and 10 ER allowed. His last start was the 21-0 Three Touchdown shutout by the Cubs.
The Padres offense has been clicking as they are 5th in MLB in runs scored. Manny Machado has been on absolute fire with an OPS of 1.070. He’s been the second most valuable offensive player so far on the young season (Anthony Rizzo was built for that short porch in the Bronx) and is keeping the Padres offense rocking even without Tatis in the lineup. The Pirates offense has been better than expected so far and is middle of the pack in OPS. That being said the best team the Pirates have played so far is the Brewers who just swept them.
For me this is classic good MLB team vs bad MLB team and the price on the run line is a value for me at around even money. The Padres are 9-1 on the Run Line against teams at the bottom of standings early on this season, and I see no reason for that trend to change tonight. Get on the Friars sinking the Pirates tonight.
2022 NFL DRAFT – DAY TWO – This quick report resets the table for day two of the draft.
Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:
It was nice to see the streets lined with football fans in Las Vegas. Hopefully everyone had a good and safe time.
As I said in the draft previews, this draft was about roster building. This was an average draft at the top of the board, but one of the deepest, if not the deepest overall drafts I’ve covered in my 40+ years. I had 272 players with draft eligible grades this year. The number was just 224 in 2021. Smart teams will find gems on days two and three.
Before the draft I listed OL, edge rusher and CB as the three deepest positions. An amazing nine OL were drafted, along with five edge rushers and four CB’s, plus a safety who can also play CB. That was not a surprise.
In a surprise to some, only one QB was drafted. GM’s and scouts knew better than fans. This was a pretty bad class.
No RB or TE made the 1st round, but that was anticipated. Are these bad classes? NO! I have almost double the number of rated RB’s as I had a year ago. The TE class has fantastic day two talent. Patience, please.
I had 32 players with round one grades. 28 went in the 1st round. OG Cole Strange had a mid-to-late 2nd round grade. Draft riser LB Quay Walker had a similar range. OT Tyler Smith and safety Lewis Cine were in the 30-35 range.
Eight teams started the draft with multiple 1st round picks. Amazingly, nine teams ended day one with multiple picks, with the NYJ having three picks. That means a record ten teams did not select a player on Thursday. That’s crazy.
Nine trades were made, all after picks 1-10. Two top level WR’s were traded. Arizona got the better of Baltimore when they traded for Marquise Brown. Philly missed out on a top WR draftee but made up for it by securing former Tennessee WR A.J. Brown. The Lions stunningly moved up 20 spots, but got fair trade value and a top tier WR.
Oh, New York, New York. The Jets might have found three instant starters in the 1st round. The NYG certainly found two gems at picks 5 and 7. It’s nice to see teams at the bottom finally do the right things on draft day.
Here’s some other teams that did well: The Lions (yes, I’m not kidding) got a solid ten-year starter along the DL and came back and added a top tier WR. Check off two boxes for this team, and for once they have a glimmer of hope. KC added two defensive players who can fill needs. Yes, the Saints are down to five picks (again), but in OT Penning and WR Olave they had a top tier 1st round draft haul. Many other teams hit their need board head on.
Let’s give a shout out to Houston. Yes, there’s risk-reward with CB Stingley, but I’ve never seen this team win a draft trade like they did when they got a four for one draft haul for moving down two spots. OG Green can start right away.
Safe picks: Detroit and edge rusher Hutchinson. The Saints, with WR Olave and OT Penning.
Nice person-team fits: The NYG and edge rusher Thibodeaux. I think this works. The Chargers and OG Zion Johnson.
Value picks: Kyle Hamilton to Baltimore. Speed aside, he’s got top ten instincts. The Jets and edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. He dropped in the draft, hopefully not because of some unknown serious issue. GB and DT Wyatt. It’s rare to put GB in the value slot, but this is a pick and a position long overdue.
Risky picks: Stingley for Houston. WR Dotson for Washington. He’s a fine player, but durability could be an issue, and the team traded down when Chris Olave and Jamison Williams were still available. GB and Quay Walker. NE and OG Cole Strange. He could be a long-term complementary starter, but is that what NE was really going for in round one?
And now, let’s talk Pittsburgh: I’m not really sure who is better, Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, but I was more than mildly surprised that Pickett was the choice. Willis has the most volatility of almost any QB I have studied over the last decade, but it’s what I thought the Steelers would do. After playing basically ZERO games after Thanksgiving, and very few cold weather or rainy games, Kenny Pickett will be tasked with roughly five cold weather games per season as a pro. He already has 38 career fumbles. The plusses are experience, poise, decent elusiveness in the pocket, and the ability to read the full field. The concerns are hand size in cold and wet weather, average anticipation and touch, and that low Wonderlic score (17) which can be an issue for QB’s. He’s the most ready to go QB but how high is his ceiling?
With that said, no one really stood out as bombing the draft thus far, which is rare, but may speak to the depth of the draft class. Let’s hope this continues throughout the draft process.
What’s next? I expect WR’s and DB’s to continue to be targeted on day two, and the floodgates will eventually open up at RB and TE, with round three landing spots for multiple players at each position. Four QB’s will be day two targets. There’s plenty of fast edge rushers left. It’s rare, but viable players at most, if not all positions are available.
Each year in this spot I list players who will be high targets for the next round. On offense, look for QB’s Willis, Ridder and perhaps Corral, RB’s Breece Hall and Kenny Walker, and WR’s Metchie, Pickens, and Watson, (with Pierce and Skyy Moore also possible). David Bell may not be taken early, but I’m intrigued by his skill set. For TE, it’s Tre McBride soon. TE Kolar may be a 3rd round gem. OL include OT’s Lucas, and enormous Daniel Faalele, and a few other OL could be in the mix. Defensively, look for injured edge rusher David Ojabo (Achilles) to get an early call, with Boye Mafe and Arnold Ebiketie possibly soon to follow. DT’s such as Travis Jones and Logan Hall have solid round two grades. LB Nakobe Dean should hear his name called early. Three CB’s, Roger McCreary, Andrew Booth and Kyler Gordon have solid draft grades. The next safety called could wait just a bit longer. That’s it for now. Let’s get round two started!
Hey All! We went 2-2 in the NBA but it was a + unit day and that’s all that matters in the end. Let’s keep on building our bankrolls!
This email will be shorter than usual as it’s mayhem in the Farley house today – send me any and all Qs you may have, if you don’t understand a pick.
NBA Picks:
MEM/MIN under 229, 2 units
As we predicted it would, this series started off fast and high scoring and although it hasn’t slowed down, both squads became way more mistake-prone. The youth of these two teams is really starting to show and now they’ll be in a super-nerve-racking environment today, with this series on the line. 229 is about 6 points too high for me – love this under.
Bucks +4.5 (May 1), 2 units
We didn’t get the +5 – fucking fuck – but as big of a Celtics believer as I am, this line is still too inflated. The Bucks are still my #1 team in the East and until Boston proves they can hang with the most dominant player on earth and an experienced, championship team, we’re taking the dog. I have Milwaukee at +1.
MLB Picks:
Phillies/Mets over 7 (+110), 1 unit
This line is again too short because of the good pitching blah blah we get it, but both of these high-powered lineups could eclipse this total in 5 innings. Philly’s bats have been particularly hot; playing the over.
CIN/COL over 10.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
Same story as above, but it’s at Coors, it’s windy, and these are two subpar pitchers. Light it up, bats!
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Mock Draft 2.0 is here and I am sticking to my guns for “the most part.” I can see some trades being made, as well as teams doing some things that not even the best NFL analysts can predict. Many teams will want to trade down for more picks being that few players really stick out, but I also think that there won’t be many candidates trading up leaving teams to make picks at the last few seconds in their spots. Can we see some teams currently without a first round pick find their way back? Miami? Las Vegas? Denver? I think that some key trades happen later than sooner in this draft, and there will be some big surprises for us all to enjoy. Here is how I rank the draft by position group weighted more towards the top of the class. I also put the total number of players selected per position in the first round to make it easier for that to decipher:
I have 16 offensive players and 16 defensive players selected in the first round.
QB – Poor – 3
RB – Below Average – 0
WR – Poor – 7
OT – Good – 5
C/G – Poor – 1
TE – Medium – 0
DE/Edge – Great – 5
DT – Medium – 2
LB – Below Average 2
CB – Good – 5
S – Below Average – 2
P/K – Good – 0
FB – N/A – 0
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, draft top OL like Evan Neal from Alabama. This team needs so much and they need to protect their new quarterback more than get an edge rusher being that they already have Josh Allen.
My Mock Pick: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Even though I vehemently disagree with this pick for the Jaguars at their current situation, the word on the street is that this is the pick that is going to happen at number one. Getting to the quarterback relieves pressure on the DBs. Walker graded out very well in the combine running a 4.51 forty, yet he only has one year of experience and I think is too green to be able to make a great prediction on him.
2. Detroit Lions
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, draft Kavon Thibodeaux. The Lions poor pass rush is hurting their secondary ranking 4th worst in pressure rate. Is it time to get to the quarterback? Not yet. Now the Lions do need a QB, but there are no breakout stars, and they have number 32 and 34 to take care of that.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan Everyone has him top edge in the draft, but I think he really just blends in with the top four or five guys due to his slower 40 time at 4.72. The Lions are slotted to pick Aiden from the talking heads due to his college career being in the home state of Michigan. Thibs is the better prospect though.
3. Houston Texans
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, this team really needs anything and everything. Maybe start with an offensive tackle and see if one of your quarterbacks pan out. Evan Neal would be better pick, but Ikem Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State is what the consensus is showing as well as the whispers out of Houston. He should be available here. Grab a QB later.
My Mock Pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State
Very close between Neal and Ekwonu. I think the Texans play it safe here. No drama, with this pick and they are maybe getting the best in the position here. Many draft boards have him at number 1, and he can move to right tackle if they keep Tunsil at the left. Can never have enough top Oline in my book.
4. New York Jets
What they should do: Trade Down (if even possible), but if not, this team could use some interior lineman and some cornerbacks. Being that they just signed Solomon Thomas, I think that Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati makes a ton of sense and especially since coach Saleh is defensive minded. Gardner is fast and is 6’3 which really helps him against the taller wide-outs.
My mock pick: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati. I think the team gets it right here. The Jets ranked 4th worst in the NFL allowing 275 receiving yards per game and the best corner in the draft will help that. They can try and take a shot with an edge rusher later in the draft.
5. New York Giants
What they should do: Trade Down (if even possible), but it not, this team could use edge rushing or offensive line. The Giants O-line and pressure rate both ranked 30th in the league last year. I’d go with Neal if he is still available.
My Mock Pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
It is hard not to look at a guy that blocked for Mack Jones and Najee Harris. Neal (6-7, 360) is a massive man who started at left guard as a freshman in 2019. As a sophomore, he replaced Jedrick Wills at right tackle and had a fine season for Alabama. Very trustworthy here and should be a day one starter.
6. Carolina Panthers
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, Matt Rhule is on the hot seat and trading down might get him fired even quicker. This team made a huge mistake last year going after Sam Darnold when they has very bad problems on both sides of the trenches. Carolina signed an Center and a Guard in free agency. This team needs much more help in the trenches being ranked 31st at offensive line on pro football focus, but that ship has now sailed for Matt Rhule. Drafting a pocket QB will get destroyed, and the best thing to have a shot in saving Rhule’s job is to draft a running QB like Malik Willis to try and mitigate that bad offensive line with some read option type plays. The best thing to do for the team however, is to take an offensive lineman.
My Mock Pick: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
I think that Matt Rhule knows he needs something big. General Manager Scott Fitterer was also part of that bad Darnold trade. Looking back, there are some teams that had a lot of success the first year drafting running QBs while having a terrible offensive line. The Ravens did it with Lamar Jackson, and the Cardinals had immediate success with Kyler Murray, and the Eagles did ok with Jalen Hurts. Do or die here for coach Rhule.
What they should do: I think that ranking 3rd to last in pressure rate won’t win them too many games vs the Cowboys, and the Commanders next season. I think it’s time to get a good defensive end. Even though there was an early run on edge rusher, Kayvon Thibodeaux grades are pretty well at this spot and he was at one point the first mocked pick of the draft.
My Mock Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
He might be the most talented prospect in this class. 6’5 and a 4.58 forty at the combine sure helps. Kayvon was the number 1 draft prospect coming into the college season. Thibodeaux had a superb freshman season for the Ducks, doing an excellent job of getting after the quarterback and totaling nine sacks, 35 tackles, a forced fumble and three passes batted. Thibodeaux at 255 lbs is quick off the edge with an explosive first-step, and flashes speed and power to bull rush some offensive tackles. The only knock on him is that he has taken some plays off in the past, but many of players do when losing the game by a few scores.
8. Atlanta Falcons
What they should do: I hate to say it, but tanking for next season is the best option being that Bryce Young, Stetson Bennet, and CJ Stroud will be the top of the 2023 draft class. The Falcons were dead last in pressure rate last year and they also had a bad offensive line. Having no wide receivers isn’t exactly good for Marcus Marriota. The Falcons could go many ways here, but drafting Kyle Pitts last year kinda tells me that they have to protect their quarterback before going WR. I say draft OL like Trevor Penning because he can also run block.
My Mock Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Marcus Marriota has nobody to throw to here and they did sign ex-Bear Germain Ifede to a 1 year deal at Right Tackle to try and put a little duck tape on that Offensive Line. Wilson is very fast and is more athletic than his close counterpart Chris Olave. Wilson’s forty was a split second faster and his vertical Jump exceeded Olave’s by 4 inches.
What they should do: Seattle won’t be competitive this year losing guys like Russell Wilson and Bobbie Wager, but this team at least has a few earlier 2nd round picks. I think that this team could go offensive tackle or Edge rusher here, but I think they get the Tackle first being that the top three edge rushers are gone. Go with Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa.
My Mock Pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The SEC is much sexier than going division two even though the size of Penning looks more NFL like. Cross has great feat and can slow up the best of the edge rushers. His size is fine at 6’5 and he can play on either side. I think after a year or so, he could be a very good pro.
What they should do: Everyone has the Jets drafting a receiver here because they offered this pick for DK Metcalf, but I tend to think that DK is way more proven than any rookie, and should not be compared to what might happen here. The Jets drafted Mims high in the 2nd round in 2020 and they drafted Elijah Moore with pick number 34 in 2021. I just can’t fathom the Jets getting another expensive WR here now that they picked up two tight ends in Uzomah and Conklin in free agency. We also can’t forget that they have Corey Davis. Pick an edge rusher like Jermain Johnson from Florida State who is a beast for his size and speed. Johnson had 12 sacks last year for the Semis.
My Mock Pick: Drake London, WR, USC
Stupid is what Stupid does. The Jets are that type of organization to waste another top tier pick on a wide receiver. London is at least very tall and a red zone nightmare, but I cannot trust him to separate from the fast secondary in the NFL. London is a work in progress but at least a big target.
11. Washington Commanders
What they should do: Washington actually had a decent offensive line last year, even with the injuries. This team lost some games that they probably shouldn’t have as well as should have won some games that they choked away. In saying that, Washington could use some linebackers and Safeties. Lewis Cine and JT Woods is the best two safeties in this draft. I would take one of them in a heartbeat.
My Mock Pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been hurt a little bit because of his forty time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He looked great at Notre Dame, but his speed concerns me for the NFL. He is at least very tall and will be able to grab some jump balls!
12. Minnesota Vikings
What they should do: The Vikings were active in free agency signing OLB Zadarius Smith, ILB Jordan Hicks and Run Stopper DT Harrison Phillips from Buffalo. Now it’s time to help in the corners and Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida Height: 6’s, Weight 196lbs with a 4.39 forty is the next best out there.
My Mock Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Too many people like Stingley here even though I disagree with his position. Stingley was highly touted at LSU before his injury woes. He grades out well with his arm length during the little time that he played last year. Stingley is a boom or bust candidate. Team sources say that Stingley has the skill set to be great in the NFL, but they wonder if he can put it all together. Stingley did not work out at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, and team sources said they were underwhelmed with his interview.
What they should do: Trade down again if possible, but I really don’t know how they could justify not taking a quarterback here being that only one of them is off of the board. I have to think that Pickett, Strong, and Ritter are all available. It’s hard for me to believe that they are all busts, and if Houston does their homework, they will find the one that will turn out.
My Mock Pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State: The Texans want to evaluate Davis Mills this season. They won’t be able to properly do that if Brandin Cooks is Mills’ only viable receiver. Chris Olave has size 6-1, 185 and speed. He became a big name at the end of 2019 in Columbus.
14. Baltimore Ravens
What they should do: Trade down, (if possible), but if not, the Ravens had quite a few holes last year and none more glaring than their offensive line. Now that their RBs will be healthy, it is time to help them stay healthy. Pick an offensive lineman in Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa.
My Mock Pick: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Brilliant minds thing a like. The noise coming from Baltimore points to Jordan Davis and it’s hard to argue going against him. Along with his insanely fast forty, Davis worked out well and did well in the team interviews. Davis can eat up double team blocks allowing linebackers to get great tackles for losses. After all, John Harbaugh is a defensive guy.
What they should do: Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches with two first round picks this year and next. for 2022 they have picks 15 and 18 so they really do have options here. Philly does not overwhelmingly need anything at any particular position, yet there is room for improvement everywhere. I think that they need to get the best player at a position.
My Mock Pick: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The Eagles are going to panic here once they see that the Ravens scooped their guy Jordan Davis. I am the only guy that has a mock draft that I have seen with the Eagles grabbing a linebacker here. TJ Edwards isn’t exactly ranked high in the middle and Nakobe Dean has fallen off of some draft boards due to his small size and some injury concerns, but Quay Walker has been rising up due to larger size and great performance at the combine running a 4.52 forty at an impressive size at 6’4 241 lbs.
What they should do: I am sorry, but I am not a big believer in Jameis Winston, and I also think the gimmick on Taysom Hill has worn out it’s welcome, in staying that, it is hard to be sure on a quarterback in this class and the Saints do not want to end up with another Ian Book who looked lost last year when the team was in dyer need. In saying that, the Saints also have the 19th pick in the draft and will not need to pick a QB ahead of the Chargers and the Eagles. The Saints should take an offensive lineman here.
My Mock Pick: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Tyler Smith’s favorite team is the Saints, and they seemed to like him according to reports. The Saints need to replace Terron Armstead. Smith has the size at 6’5, quickness, and explosiveness to run block for Alvin Kamara.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
What they should do: The Chargers just signed two big three techniques (nose tackles) along with the Khalil Mack trade to help them stop the run, which they were worst in the NFL in opponent rush EPA in 2021. Now that they did that, they could use more inside linebackers, and 3-4 heavy style defensive ends or 5 techniques.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Word on the street is that the Chargers will want to continue to protect their huge investment in Justin Herbert. Penning is a huge 6’7 tackle who has surprising quickness (4.89) forty with athleticism to go along with excellent size. In both phases, Penning is a great blocker. He also had a good performance at the Senior Bowl. Even though Penning played for a division two school, you have to love this guys metrics.
What they should do: Like I was saying, Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches with two first round picks this year and next. Now that they have a great D lineman in Davis, as well as signing Kyzir white, the smartest move that they can make is to give their quarterback another great tight end to throw to. Jalani Woods graded out spectacularly well running a 4.61 forty at 6’7 260 LBS with 24 bench reps in the combine. He can run block as well. Jalani used to be a quarterback in high school as well as early in his early college career.
My Mock Pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
I see corner depth as an issue now that Steven Nelson left to Houston. McDuffie played well in 2021, stopping receivers, and not allowing big plays. He showed added special teams value in 2021 by serving as a punt returner. McDuffie recorded 35 tackles and six passes broken up on the year. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside as well as in the slot. He also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical and could fit in well in Philadelphia.
What they should do: Like I said before, this team is too good to have to rely on Jameis Winston this year. Another mediocre year isn’t going to put them in contention for one of the top quarterbacks next year. I think that the Saints have to take a shot at a quarterback here like a Kenny Pickett, but they most likely won’t because of everything that they put into Winston and Taysom Hill.
My Mock Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Ohio State transfer was an amazing playmaker for the Crimson Tide last year averaging 19.9 yards per catch for 1,572 yards with 15 touchdowns on 79 catches before tearing an ACL in the National Championship Game. The 6-foot-2, 189-pound Williams would have been the best wide receiver in the draft if he was healthy. I think the Saints are ok with waiting on him until October or so.
What they should do: This one isn’t hard. The Steelers were the worst team against the run last year in opponent rushing yards per game. This team needs a 3 technique to free up the linebackers. Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia would be perfect for the job, but the problem is that the Steelers might blame last year on injuries and feel that they can stop the run while healthy. Also getting Myles Jack could give them a false sense of hope against the run.
My Mock Pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
This pick is completely dependent on what this team thinks of Mitch Trubisky after the terrible tragedy that happened to Duane Haskins. Pickett has good size and decent speed. He isn’t afraid to run the ball which, this day and age, is a good thing. Kenny Pickett stands 6’3 with 8.25 inch hands and ran a 4.73 forty. He had an amazing year at last year at Pitt, but some of that might have been their offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Pickett was very accurate last year in his deep throws and very clutch at 42 – 7 TD to interception ration, but I can’t get by his small hands.
21. New England Patriots
What they should do: With Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, and Jaime Collins all not signed as free agents, I have to think that the Patriots go linebacker here and it is what they should do. In saying that, this is Bill Belichik that we are talking about and he is very unpredictable in nature. This team could also use a good wide receiver, but they reached for one just a few years back with N’Keal Harry.
My Mock Pick: Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Lloyd was a beast for the Utes last year leading their tough defense to the pack 12 championship. Lloyd had 111 tackles, eight sacks, one forced fumble, four interceptions, and six passes defended. The 6-foot-3, 235-pounder flies around the field and he definitely is a three-down starter in the NFL.
What they should do: Being that Aaron Rogers had this team by the balls after they tried to get cute a few drafts ago, it is now time to virtue signal to him that they are looking out for his best interests. High maintenance people need pampering, and there is no better way to do that as to show Aaron your commitment to his numbers by drafting the best wide receiver available.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Replacing Devonte Adams will be tough but this guy is the closest there is. If Jameson Williams isn’t the best WR in this class, than Christian Watson might be that guy. Christian is 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 forty speed and elite measurables. He can be a big-play threat in the redzone. Watson had a great day at the Senior Bowl impressing many scouts. When you have great measurables, and a performance like that, you tend to ignore that he played division two football.
23. Arizona Cardinals
What they should do: Well, now you have Kyler Murray ticked off at you while losing Christian Kirk, Chandler Jones, Chase Edmunds, Jordan Hicks and Jordan Phillips, a GM must make trust saving moves. JJ Watt’s massive contract sure doesn’t help here. I would trade down if I was GM, but if that can’t happen, I say to go defensive end to replace Chandler Jones. A lot of mocks have Arizona picking a WR but that won’t move the needle.
My Mock Pick: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
The loss of Chandler Jones stings, but to be completely honest, I thought that he took games off last year anyways. George Karlaftis has amazing football instincts. In 2021, Karlaftis recorded 36 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two passes broken up and two forced fumbles. He can both rush the passer and defend the run. He seems a little slow but his size fits into Arizona’s 3-4 scheme.
24. Dallas Cowboys
What they should do: How about quit being the butt of every joke? The Cowboys have way too much talent to not make it to an NFC championship game. Zeke is old now and way overpaid for that running back position. In saying that, this great offensive line lost two key guys to free agency in guard Conner Williams and right tackle La’el Collins. I do not like the guards that much in this draft, so I say to get a tackle like Ohio State’s Nick Petit-Frere
My Mock Pick: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
Jerry Bones Jones will follow suit here and grab a guard being that he doesn’t want to screw it up. I also think Dallas goes guard here because of the fact that none have been taken as of yet. Zion Johnson played tackle at Boston College, but his size and length limitations may force him to guard.
25. Buffalo Bills
What they should do: Buffalo gained a great edge rusher in Von Miller as well as two good defensive tackles. They, however, lost CB Levi Wallace to free agency to the Steelers and he needs to be replaced. The Bills also need a good running back, but that can wait being that there isn’t much of a difference in the top 5 of this running back class.
My Mock Pick: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
Booth excels in press-man coverage which makes him a great replacement for Levi Wallace. Andrew accumulated 37 tackles, three interceptions and three passes broken up in 2021. He has a good skill set and is a talented cover corner, but a tad bit slow for being only 6’0 tall and his double hernia surgery didn’t bode well this offseason.
26. Tennessee Titans
What they should do: The titans acquired Robert Woods from the Rams but he is coming off of an ACL tear, and we do not know when he will be ready. I thought that the wide receivers on this team didn’t make it easy for Ryan Tannehill vs the Bengals, and they need to fill that gap. The Titans could also use an linebacker after losing Raashan Evans but they can wait on that.
My Mock Pick: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson ran a nice 4.43 40 in the combine. He is over 6’1 inches tall and played great for Penn State last year. If the quarterback play was better, I think that he would have even had a better year than his 95 receptions, 1187 yards and 12 touchdowns. This guy will be a good pro and he can fight for the ball.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What they should do: Now that TB 12 is back, the ceiling is the roof. With the loss of Ndamukong Suh, this team could use a good defensive tackle. They are also short a guard and a Safety. I am ok with any of those picks.
My Mock Pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Wyatt is just too good to pass up here. He was Georgia’s best interior defensive lineman at least stat-wise, and he could move from the nose to the 5 technique spot. In 2021, Wyatt collected 39 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one pass batted. He ran the fory at a speedy 4.77 seconds weighing 304 LBS. I also think that Tampa knows that they can get a guard in the next round of this draft, and in this weak quarterback division, they don’t need to worry about safety quite as much.
28. Green Bay Packers
What they should do: Now that Aaron Rogers has been pampered some, the teams needs to replace Zadarious Smith coming off the edge. The Packers did resign an injured Robert Tonyan at tight end and I think that they will be able to get a good tight end in the second or third round being that everyone is so down on this class. Now I do still think that Jelani Woods would be a great tight end pick here so I am ok with that but they will probably go edge here and there are some good ones available.
My Mock Pick: Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
Jermaine dropped too far not to take him here. Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. JJ already has a few veteran pass-rush moves, and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he will have some versatility in a 3-4 defense.
What they should do: The Chiefs lost two cornerbacks in free agency in Charvarious Ward and Mike Hughes. They will need to replace that, but the good news, is that they have two picks here to do it. We also have to keep in mind that the Honey Badger isn’t signed at safety, and the Chiefs might want to try and replace Tyreke Hill.
My Mock Pick: Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan
I think that Hill is kinda perfect for this situation. The Chiefs need a corner but safety also needs help. Daxton can play both, and he graded out great at the combine running a 4.38 40 at 6’0 tall 191 lbs. I think that Hill might go earlier to a team like Buffalo, or Philly, but but we shall see.
What they should do: No changes here mate! What I didn’t mention before is the Daniel Sorenson loss at Safety as well. The Chiefs might want to try and replace Tyreke Hill here. Now should they grab a WR here? The answer is no, there are too many out there that grade the same and they also have two 2nd and two 3rd round plays. Plus they also signed Ju-Ju Smith Schuster. To be honest, I am still scratching my head trying to figure out how this team blew that playoff game at home. I think that this team should draft a Safety now that Sorenson is gone.
My Mock Pick: George Pickens, WR, Georgia
GMs fall in love with QBs and the WR position. I do not think the Chiefs can resist passing on a guy like George Pickens who was great before his ACL tear in 2021. You have to like his 6’3 size with 4.47 speed. Team sources are high on Pickens and that is why I think that he goes here.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
What they should do: The Bengals fixed their offensive line by paying up the ringer for them in free agency. Was that the right move? The answer is yes. Joe Burrow will now have more confidence holding onto that ball like he loves to do so much. Now that the Bengals took care of that, they have some options here. They are not in dyer need of any position so I say go with the best player available and that might be a tight end like Jelani Woods. But being that nobody listens to me….
My Mock Pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
It would be a huge mistake to pass on Elam if you are going defensive back here. Elam played really well to open the 2021 season and a very impressive performance against Alabama. 6’2 height with a 4.39 forty tells me that he has the tangibles to be a great NFL corner.
What they should do: Here is the team that will decide if two or three quarterbacks are selected in the first round of this draft. There are actual reports though saying the Lions might stay put on their first three picks not involving a quarterback. I can’t believe that they would pass this far on a QB. The worst thing this team can do is to be mediocre and miss out on a QB this year AND next. Draft a QB here and if you wait, you might miss out if a team wants Ritter or Corrall that will trade up to 33 with Jacksonville.
My Mock Pick: Desmond Ritter, QB, Cincinnati
At 6’4 with 10 inch hands and a 4.52 forty, how can you go wrong here? He also made the playoffs on a group of 5 team. Tall, huge hands and knows when to run. He was the second leading rusher on the Bear Cats and could be a Josh Allen type QB for any team. Sometimes I think that, maybe this guy, is number 1 of this class.
