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Premiums, 5.16 and NBA Game 1s

By
Chris R. Farley
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What’s up guys! Hopefully some of you took the Dallas’ series future – that was a sweet ending! Not a ton to get excited about on the MLB slate today but we have a few plays and our lookahead bets on tomorrow and Wednesday’s NBA games.

NBA Futures
 
Celtics win series 4-3 (+550) – We think the Heat will win game 1 so that pushes this to 7 games since we expect them to win 2 or 3 at home and probably one really tough game on the road. The Celtics are the better team, but I would not be surprised if Miami won. They’re still very underrated.
 
NBA Picks (Game 1s):
Lean, Heat -2
Celtics/Heat under 204.5, 1.5 units
I lean the Heat because they have considerably more rest, they’re at home, and they’re so good as underdogs (which they are in this series). They also didn’t experience the same level of physicality that Boston just endured. That being said, defense will still dominate this series. Two slow teams, two defenses that are exceptional against half-court sets, and both teams’ best shooters will be challenged and contested at every turn. As a hedge of sorts, I like the Heat to succeed more than Boston’s offense, principally because of the home court advantage and added rest, but overall this should be a low-scoring game. If you don’t like the full game under, consider taking Miami TT over – there’s a good chance we see the best version of Miami against a lethargic version of Boston.
Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units 
Mavericks/Warriors 1Q under 53.5, 1.5 units
These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.
MLB Picks:
 
Rays alt line -2.5 (+145), 1 unit to win 1.45 units
This is about as lopsided a matchup as there is, and the Rays are at home behind Kluber, who will continue to positively regress in our opinion. Detroit “winning streaks” don’t last.
Yankees/Orioles over 8 (-105), 1.05 units to win 1
The Orioles had a good time against Severino in their last battle and when Baltimore is at home against their rival, they have a reckless abandon about them that tells us they have little fear. Lots of power hits expected today. Hopefully it doesn’t get rained out.
Astros (+111), 1 unit to win 1.11 units
I’m going to need to see more from Garrett Whitlock to start trusting him as a dependable Boston starter. Odorizzi has plenty of experience and improving command – I’ll go with the better team on the road.
Giants/Rockies under 12, (-110) 1.1 units to win 1
Two teams who allowed way too many hits and slugs one game ago head into this contest at Coors Field so naturally it’s going to soar over, right? We don’t think so. Senzatela has been solid in command at home in his career and Alex Wood can handle the task just as well. This flies under.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

The NBA Conference Finals Previews, Trends, and Angles You Need to Know

By
John Ryan
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The Things You Need to Know for the NBA Conference Finals

In the Eastern Conference The Boston Celtics dominated the Milwaukee Bucks in Game-7 of their second semifinal series with a 109-81 win that covered the spread by 23 points. The Under wager also won easily covering the 205.5-point Total by 15.5 points. Grant Williams scored a career-high 27 points and hit seven 3-pointers, Jayson Tatum added 23 and Boston set a Game 7 record with 22 3-pointers


Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns embarrassed themselves with a shockingly poor performance, losing to the Dallas Mavericks 123-90 as 6.5-point favorites and with the Over wager winning by 8.5 points. At the half of this Game-7, the Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic had more points than the entire Phoenix Suns team. Doncic and teammate Spencer Dinwiddie became the 8th pair of teammates to score 30+ points in a Game-7 and was the first pair to achieve this remarkable feat since Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in the Western Conference finals against the Sacramento Kings. The Lakers went on to win the NBA Championship over the New Jersey Nets in a 4-game sweep.

The Celtics will take on the No.1 seed Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, which is a rematch the East Finals in the ‘bubble’ season of the 2020 season held in Walt Disney World, in which the Heat defeated the Celtics in 6 games.
The 4-seed Mavericks will travel to San Francisco to take on the 3-seed Warriors in their first return to the Conference Finals since 2011. The Mavericks became the 34th road team to win a Game-7 and now, the home team is 110-34 for 77% wins.

The Betting Trends in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
The home teams are 47-28 straight-up and 39-36 against the spread including a 27-46-2 Over-Under record good for 63% winning Under bets in the playoffs this season.

  • Home favorites are 36-12 straight-up and 27-21 against the spread including 16-31-1 Over-Under good for 66% winning Under bets in the playoffs this season.
  • Home dogs are 11-16 straight-up and 12-15 against the spread including 11-15-1 Over-Under for 58% winning Under nets in the playoffs this season.
  • Home favorites coming off a straight-up loss are 18-7 straight-up and 13-12 against the spread including a highly profitable 5-20-0 Over-Under record good for 80% winning Under bets in the playoffs this season.
  • Home favorites coming off a straight-up win are 18-5 straight-up and 14-9 against the spread including an even 11-11-1 Over-Under record in the playoffs this season.
  • Home teams that are the better seed are 28-9 straight-up and 24-13 against the spread including 15-21-1 Over-Under for 58% winning Under wagers in the playoffs this season. 


The Top-5 Situational Anges for the NBA Conference Finals you Need to Know

  • Home Favorites are 113-55 straight-up and 87-81 against the spread including a 75-88-5 Over-Under record for 54% winning Under wagers spanning the previous 20 playoff seasons.
  • Home favorites coming off a straight-up loss are 50-24 straight-up and 43-31 against the spread for 58.1% winning bets including a 29-43-2 Over-Under record good for 60% winning Under wagers spanning the last 20 playoff seasons (11-5 straight-up and against the spread with a 6-10-0 Over-Under record last 5 playoff seasons)
  • Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a straight-up loss are 35-12 straight-up and 29-18 against the spread including an even 23-23-1 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 playoff seasons. Plus, 6-1 straight-up and against the spread with a 3-4 Over-Under record spanning the last five playoff seasons.
  • Double-Digit home favorites are 10-1 straight-up and 6-5 against the spread including a 3-8 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 playoff seasons. The lone loss occurred May 21, 2017, when the Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the visiting Boston Celtics 108-111 as 16.5-point favorites, which was the only loss the Cavaliers had in that Eastern Conference Final. The Cavaliers lost the Warriors 4-1 in the NBA Finals.
  • The total has averaged 218 points in the NBA Conference Finals over the last five playoff seasons. The average total had risen for 10 consecutive seasons until last year’s average of 218.36 points fell short of the 2020 average of 222.14 points. In this season’s conference matchups, the average total is going to be far lower, possibly around 211 points, with none of the games likely to be lined above 218 points. Home teams with a total of 215 or fewer points are 15-8 straight-up and 14-8-1 against the spread for 64% winning bets including a 12-11 Over-Under record spanning the last five conference finals.

May 15th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I enjoyed a 3-0, +3.15u Saturday and am now +7.68u on the week. I’m rolling with 2 MLB plays today looking to finish the week strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 -0.5(-110) @ Marlins–12:40 PM CT

*MLB(0.8u): Guardians ML(+125) @ Twins–1:10 PM CT

No write-ups for today, but still wanted to get these out to y’all. Enjoy your Sunday!

Premiums, 5.15

By
Chris R. Farley
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Haven’t had the time to handicap MLB so don’t want to give plays just to give plays. Also might be a good time to take a day off after a nice 4-1 effort yesterday, finally a + ROI day in MLB, shiyit! Just sticking with our original NBA plays:

NBA Picks (tomorrow):
 
Celtics/Bucks over 50, 1.5 units
I think both of these teams come out aggressively on offense to try to get the upper hand, and Boston should shoot better early than they have in previous games being at home. This game will slow down and I’m sure we’ll take a live under if it starts high-scoring, but I love this game to start with some pace.
 
Bucks +5.5, 2 units
No chance we’re not taking the Bucks at this line. We’ve seen this story before, it’s Giannis and an experienced supporting cast in a big spot, and nothing could make me think that this game won’t be an absolute battle throughout. Value on the dog.
Lean Suns -6, and
Mavs/Suns over 205, 1 unit
I hate to say it because I LOVE this Mavericks team, but the Suns are really good at home and why wouldn’t we expect them to play at their best in this spot. Wouldn’t be shocked at all if Dallas made it a game or won straight up, so just a lean. Since we think Phoenix will control the narrative here and since we’re seen how aggressive they can be closing out a series (and at home), that should be plenty to drive this total up. Desperation also tends to breed points and a lot of garbage time free throws.

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday MLB + NHL and NBA Power Play Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year headlining along with MLB and NBA Round 1 Top Level Total. Early Comp Play below.
 
The MLB Comp play in early action is on Atlanta. The Braves have won 13 of 18 in game 3 of a series and the Padres are in a 1-7 road dog system pertaining to team that scored 5 or more runs and had 4 or less hits, The Padres have dropped 4 of 5 vs a righty, 21 of 20 in a game 3 of a series and 21 of 28 as a road dog. Musgrove has been solid this year. However he is 0-2 here in Atlanta and was tagged for 6 runs in 4 innings in his last start here. Wright for the Braves beat the Padres last month striking out 9 in 5 innings. He has won 3 of 4 at home. Look for the Braves to take the finale. On Sunday another huge card is up with 2 BIG NBA Plays and the NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Game Of The Year along with a Powerful MLB Card and our Exclusive Game 7 NBA Plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Atlanta. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Sunday Premier League Plays!

By
Steve Norman
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Had a rather troubling Wednesday, but immediately evened it out by the hammering of Tottenham over Arsenal 3-0.  The Premier League season is sadly coming to an end, but matches matter more than ever now… especially for those at the bottom of the table….

Current Soccer Record: 60-65 +7.83 Units

Leeds United ML (+175) 1 Unit 

Leeds comes into this match-up with Brighton sitting top of the bottom three relegation positions on the table; with 34 points.  It is a close race to the finish between Everton (36 pts), Burnley(34 pts), and Leeds (34 pts) to see which club will round out the bottom 3 of relegation.  With just two matches left for Leeds and three for both Burnley and Everton, the time to win is now.  If they have any hope of getting out of the bottom three and surpassing Burnley let alone Everton, they HAVE to win.

So here we are a must win situation at home against a team that has been red hot in Brighton, winning their last 2 in convincing fashion by tallying 7 combined goals.  Things not as great for Leeds, losing their last 3; but no surprise as they had an absolute gauntlet to get through in Man City, Arsenal, and Chelsea.  The line on the match is a red flag for me, Brighton at +160 in a spot where I figured they would be much bigger favorites, even with respect to being on the road.  Leeds has so much more to play for in this match unlike Brighton who sits middle of the road on the table.  Knowing that Burnley has a very realistic chance of losing out, if they could snag a victory here it could set them up to sneak through to remain in the coveted: Premier League for another season.

My other plays:

Aston Villa +110 2 Units

Wolverhampton -1.25 (+102) 1 Unit

Tottenham -1.5 (-104) 1 Unit

Everton/Brentford Over 2.5 (+101) 1 Unit 

West Ham United +1.5 (-120) 1 Unit 

West Ham United Draw (+420) .5 Unit

UFC Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

  • Rakic/Blachowicz does NOT finish 1st round +350, 1 unit
  • Blachowicz wins +163, 1 unit
  • Aruajo wins, EVEN, 1 unit
  • Ribas wins, +145, 1 unit

May 14th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A 3-1, +3u Friday night puts me at +4.53u on the week! I’m rolling with 3 plus-money MLB plays for today looking to add on to that tally. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Athletics GM1 ML(+105) vs Angels–3:07 PM CT

This is a “hold your nose” type of play, but this line speaks volumes. We have a 22-12 Angels team as short favorites against arguably the worst offensive team in baseball. However, when you start to dissect this pitching matchup, the fishy line begins to make more sense. Athletics SP Paul Blackburn has looked brilliant through 6 starts, currently holding a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. While the Angels offense has looked good this season, they’ve managed to muster together only 2 runs a piece in their last 2 games. Blackburn has shut down the likes of Tampa Bay, Toronto, and San Francisco this year, and I think he’s bound for another quality start today. The Athletics offense is putrid, but they’ll be facing a soft-throwing lefty today in Jhonathan Diaz who will be sent down to AAA after today’s double-header. The A’s are clearly better against lefties, and this is as ideal of a spot as they’re going to find themselves in. While I give the bullpen advantage to the Angels, they needed Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, and Raseal Iglesias to close last night’s game. I’m not at the point with this bullpen where I’m willing to trust them when they’re not on ideal rest. I’m buying into this fishy line and backing the A’s in as ideal of a spot as they’re going to find themselves in when stepping up in competition. 

*MLB(1u): Red Sox ML(+100) @ Rangers–6:05 PM CT

Given how bad Boston looked over the first month of the season, you can’t blame the oddsmakers for pricing them as a bottom-barrel team. With that said, I’ve seen enough over their past 3 games to believe the Red Sox are turning a corner. They won 7-1 last night in Texas in a similarly priced game and put together 12 runs in their 2-game series against the Braves earlier this week, a series they should’ve swept if not for the umpiring disaster we saw in Wednesday’s game. Rangers SP Glenn Otto holds an impressive 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this year, but he has a high hard-contact rate of 33%, a left-on-base percentage at 82%, and a FIP at 4.73. I am very low on the Texas bullpen and think they could finish with the worst numbers in the league, so this is another very manageable matchup for the Sox offense. Red Sox SP Rich Hill might be 42, but he’s still chugging along and putting up quality numbers. He holds a 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and will face a Rangers lineup that is well below average. I usually don’t love trusting the Red Sox bullpen, but they only needed Kutter Crawford last night and had an off day before that. We’ll see if Boston can return to last year’s form, but in any case, I think this is a great opportunity to play on a talented team that is showing signs of life.  

*MLB(1u): Rockies -1.5(+110) vs Royals–7:10 PM CT

Rockies SP German Marquez has looked horrible this year, plain and simple. However, his career reputation and success pitching at Coors Field allows me to overlook the slow start and trust him today against a bad Royals lineup. I know KC put up 14 runs last night, but the disparity between Kyle Freeland and German Marquez’s styles is night and day. Royals SP Carlos Hernandez is not a ML caliber arm, and he’ll go up against a Rockies lineup that thrives hitting at Coors Field. The Rockies bullpen has actually fared better at home this year, while the Royals ‘pen is both fatigued and ineffective. While I love fading the Rockies on the road, I like backing them at home just as much. They have failed to lose back-to-back home games this year, so I will trust them to keep that trend rolling tonight and for Marquez to find his way. 

Rob Vinciletti: MLB Totals Play + NHL 2X PERFECT Historical System info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Massive Saturday Card led by 100$ NHL 2X Perfect Playoff Historical System, an MLB Executive Level TIER 1 along with a 5* MLB Blowout and the MLS Platinum Supreme Soccer Total. MLB Comp Play below.
 
The MLB Comp Play is on the Under in the Seattle at NY. Mets game at 7:10 eastern. Expect another well pitched game here as the Mets send out C. Bassitt and his 2.45 Era against Seattle J. Kirby who solid in his seasonal debut last out going 6 scoreless. The Mariners are one of the worst teams in the Majors in scoring efficiency in regards to runs per hits. The Mets are 6 of 7 under vs a losing team and 8 of 10 on Saturdays. Look for this game to stay under tonight. On Saturday Rob has a Tremendous card led by an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB Our highest rated play along with a 5* Diamond Cutter, the MLS Platinum Supreme Total and a Rare 6* 2X Perfect NHL Historical System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and cash out all day and night. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Under in the Seattle at NYM Game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic – Free Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Frank Camacho vs Manuel Torres -135

This should be a fun featherweight fight to watch.  Frank Camacho is an experienced fighter that has had it quite rough.  Since his UFC debut in June of 2017, he has had to face some stiff competition against guys like Beniel Dariush, Jingliang Li and Drew Dober.  He went 2-5 in that stretch pretty much putting him in tier 3 status.   One thing that you have to love about him is his aggressiveness landing 6.67 significant strikes per minute.  His opponent, the favorite in Manuel Torres is coming in the UFC hot winning his last three fights.   Manuel is coming in at 12 wins and two losses, with both of his losses both being by submission.  Torres is also a very aggressive fighter landing 11.6 significant strikes per minute with six submissions to his record.   Torres is very good both on his feat as well as on the mat, and that is what makes him the favorite.   I am not very excited to back guys making their UFC debut, but I do see some value in the total.  In Manuel’s last seven fights, not one of them has made it past the 1st round.   In seven out of Frank’s nine losses, he was finished.   In Frank’s last 4 fights, three of them went under 1.5 rounds.  Both of these fighters are very aggressive and both are susceptible to finishes.   See what I am getting at?   Don’t over think this and take the under at a nice PLUS money at +115.

Under 1.5 rounds +115 – 1.5 stars

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