I’m going high volume in MLB today- lmk if you have any questions. Might be a good chance for some parlay action, too. I’m still looking into UFC so I’ll send another email if I have any picks there. Let’s have a weekend of DUBS!
NBA Picks (tomorrow):
Celtics/Bucks over 50, 1.5 units
I think both of these teams come out aggressively on offense to try to get the upper hand, and Boston should shoot better early than they have in previous games being at home. This game will slow down and I’m sure we’ll take a live under if it starts high-scoring, but I love this game to start with some pace.
Bucks +5.5, 2 units
No chance we’re not taking the Bucks at this line. We’ve seen this story before, it’s Giannis and an experienced supporting cast in a big spot, and nothing could make me think that this game won’t be an absolute battle throughout. Value on the dog.
Lean Suns -6, and
Mavs/Suns over 205, 1 unit
I hate to say it because I LOVE this Mavericks team, but the Suns are really good at home and why wouldn’t we expect them to play at their best in this spot. Wouldn’t be shocked at all if Dallas made it a game or won straight up, so just a lean. Since we think Phoenix will control the narrative here and since we’re seen how aggressive they can be closing out a series (and at home), that should be plenty to drive this total up. Desperation also tends to breed points and a lot of garbage time free throws.
Gonna have a nice play that hopefully will not be scary after I break this down. Who’s the best pitcher in the NL? Too early to tell, but Logan Webb has been fantastic boasting a 2.64 FIP at 4-1 for the season. He is a right handed ground ball pitcher who has been straight up deadly. The Cardinal’s Jordan Hicks hasn’t been too bad either with a 3.78 ERA at 1-2, but his FIP is 4.5 after 16 innings and his 4.17 performance from last year is average at best. Both of these bullpens are pretty average so I will not give the Giants a big advantage there, but looking at the hitting, the Giants have done pretty well vs righties ranking 11th in wRC+ while the Cardinals rank 19th. The Giants play in the tougher division by far and they still have a +9 positive run differential over the Cardinals. I feel the Giants have a 60% chance of winning which means that they should be laying about -150 in this spot. Take the San Francisco Baseball Giants with the better pitcher and hitting.
I am currently +1.53u this week and am rolling with 4 MLB plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Dodgers TT OVER 4.5(-115) vs Phillies–9:10 PM CT
The Dodgers fell behind early to the Phils last night due to some poor starting pitching, but they put up good at-bats all night, totaling 12 hits and 7 runs. The Phillies bullpen has been unreliable to begin with, and now they will be without Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, and Corey Knebel today as each of those guys has thrown the past 2 days. I think this will prove to be crucial because Phillies SP Kyle Gibson will not be in his ideal role tonight. Gibson was a mediocre SP at best for the first 8 years of his career but found himself last year as a Texas Ranger. Even so, he had alarming home/road splits(4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP on the road last year). While he’s started this year off nicely, the Dodgers are an absolute juggernaut against right-handed pitching. There are 5 hitters in the Dodgers lineup who have an OPS greater than 1.000 against Gibson, and when you add in the Phillies bullpen situation, I think this lineup goes off tonight. Clayton Kershaw is an easy guy to back, but the Phillies have been the best lineup in the league against lefties this year. I’m going to isolate the matchup I feel best about and back the Dodgers lineup at a standard number and price.
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Marlins UNDER 6.5(-120)–5:40 PM CT
This is easily the best pitching matchup of the night. Marlins SP Pablo Lopez carries a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP into tonight’s start. While that ERA is unsustainable, his career success pitching at home leads me to back him tonight; he held a 2.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 at home last year. The Brewers hold pretty good offensive numbers overall, but you have to consider they’ve played 2 series a piece against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs. We’ve already seen the Brewers put up 0 or 1 runs 6 separate times this year, and given the matchup and ballpark that heavily favors pitchers, I wouldn’t be surprised if they add to that tally tonight. With that said, I believe Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner held a 1.62 FIP last year and currently holds a 1.86 ERA this year. Burnes is damn near unhittable, and he actually fares better on the road. The Marlins have started off the year hot at home, but history would tell you that’s not sustainable. Given they rank just 17th in runs/game and are very mediocre in the slugging department, I will back an elite pitcher over a mediocre offense any day. Each team comes off a day of rest, so each bullpen should be fresh. I trust the Marlins bullpen more than the Brewers’, but given I expect Burnes to go deep in this game, I’m willing to put this bet in the hands of the likes of Brad Boxberger and Josh Hader. This should be an absolute pitcher’s duel.
*MLB(0.72u): Padres ML(+140) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
We’ll get another good pitching matchup here with Max Fried facing off against Yu Darvish. Fried has looked good for Atlanta this year, but this is anything but an easy matchup. The Padres rank 7th in OPS against lefties this year and should have a better chance at going deep tonight given they’re away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have been a bit inconsistent as of late, but I put almost all of that on the fact they’re relying on a lot of inexperienced starting pitching. That won’t be an issue for them tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish’s ERA as a Padre is a bit deceiving to me; he’s held a WHIP under 1.10 each of the past 2 seasons and is still a guy I want to back. The Braves have been mediocre offensively this season and have relied almost solely on HR’s to fuel their offense. It’s also worth noting that Darvish fired 6.2 innings of 1 run ball against the Braves earlier this season. The bullpen matchup is pretty even, but it’s worth noting that the Braves rely on a few lefties late in games that might not match up ideally against this Braves offense. In any case, this line should be much closer to a pick’em than what it currently sits at. I will back the road dog and take advantage of the price to hopefully win us a full unit.
*MLB(0.5u): Guardians ML(+140) @ Twins–7:10 PM CT
Virtually every member of the Guardians coaching staff is sick and unavailable for tonight’s game. Pair that with the fact Cleveland has not played since Tuesday, this will remain a small play for me. However, I see a lot of intrinsic value on the Guardians here. Twins SP Sonny Gray is consistently given far too much love by the betting markets; while he has good stuff, his issue with walks continually come back to bite him. He is also making just his 4th start of the season and has failed to go more than 4.2 IP in a game this year. The Twins just played a double-header against Houston yesterday, leaving their bullpen at far less than peak rest entering tonight’s matchup. The Guardians also sneakily rank 2nd in OPS vs righties this season and consistently take advantage of bad bullpen arms(did you see the White Sox game on Monday?). Guardians SP Aaron Civale has run into some bad luck this season, as his FIP remains 4.5 points below his ERA. He actually pitched well against Toronto last weekend, allowing just 6 baserunners through 5.2 innings. Civale held a brilliant 3.03 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the road last year, and he has great numbers historically against this Twins order. The Twins are still without Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Trevor Larnach. In addition, this offense is also in horrible current form, scoring less than 2 runs/game over their last six. The Guardians hold a sizeable bullpen advantage and have 2 days of rest under their belts, so this full game price makes no sense to me. This will remain a 0.5u given the concerns I mentioned off the top, but I think Cleveland pulls out the win here.
Esteemed guest and Bet US NBA host Kate Constable rejoins the FarleyBets’ pod today to talk NBA Playoffs, predictions for Friday May 13, and other shenanigans!
We’re 48-35 (58%), +12.5 units in NBA Playoff Picks and we’re betting MLB, UFC, and more! If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here!
What’s up, crew! Let’s close out this week strong – I’ll have family and friends over this weekend so my availability may not be as frequent. Please be patient with me but don’t hesitate if you have any questions. I’ll get to it eventually.
NBA Picks:
Celtics 1H +0.5, 1 unit
Celtics/Bucks 1H under 102.5, 1 unit
If I lean the Celtics early, it’s because of their defense. Robert Williams III should return, although it’s not certain just yet, and Boston kept the Bucks at bay for the majority of game 5. Of course, not so much when it mattered at the end, but this is a series between two elite defenses that have seen it all. After that game-ending play by Jrue Holiday, the Celtics should come out fiery and pester Milwaukee like their playoff lives depend on it (and uh yea, it does). If Milwaukee plays Middleton, I think that’s only an offensive liability for this contest. Middleton will come in cold, and there’s no way he fully recovered after only 3 weeks off. I like a defensive game and for Boston to keep it within range in the first.
Grizzlies +8, 1.5 units
I can’t bet the Warriors, even at home, after what I saw in game 5, at THIS line. We missed the 8.5 (grab that again if it comes out), but this Ja-less Memphis team is fluid and better on defense without their star. They won’t go down without a fight.
MLB Picks:
Brewers/Marlins 15 over 3 (-105), to win 1 unit
We’re just playing the numbers/odds here. Three runs isn’t a lot, and we know these two pitchers are elite, but Miami just exploded offensively on Wednesday and the Brewers are overdue for a more productive hitting day.
Twins -1.5 (+120), 1 unit
This is a good spot for the Twins to get off their schneid and grab a win against a pitcher in Civale who can’t find his command.
Rockies -1.5 (+130), 1 unit
The Rockies are just considerably better at home and Greinke doesn’t scare me away with Colorado’s bats at Coors and a subpar lineup always for KC.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have four elimination games tonight in the NHL. The Bruins will look to win Game 6 at home to extend their season. The Leafs are up 3-2 in their series with Tampa Bay and have a chance to close them out on the road. St. Louis has won two straight with the chance of closing out Minnesota at home. Lastly, Edmonton needs to steal one on the road to force a Game 7 with Los Angeles.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins
What an interesting series this has been as the home team has won every game. If you’re looking to follow that trend, then the Bruins are your pick for tonight. However, I’m not as confident in Boston tonight. Before the start of Game 3, they moved David Pastrnak back on the top line with Marchand and Bergeron which has sparked their offense, specifically Marchand. The issue for Carolina the last time they visited Boston was their lack of discipline taking 9 penalties. Boston’s powerplay hasn’t been great but they were able to score two on the powerplay in that game.
While this series has been tight, the games haven’t. In every game, the winner has been decided by two or more goals. Also, every game in this series has either gone over or pushed.
With all that being said, I’m not sure that trend continues here. The Bruins will need to play solid defense that transitions into offense. They’ll get back Hampus Lindholm tonight which will bolster their defense. Also, I don’t see the Carolina Hurricanes, who were on of the most disciplined teams this season, taking nine penalties again.
– BOSTON BRUINS/ CAROLINA HURRICANES UNDER 6.0 (-122) – FanDuel
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning
The Leafs have a chance to close out the back to back Stanley Cup Champions tonight. Toronto has not won a playoff series since 2004. The Lightning, have not lost back to back games in the past two post seasons. Toronto started off the series with a dominating performance in Game 1, and since then the series has flip flopped with no team winning two consecutive games. It’s pretty simple for me here, based off the stats of Andrei Vasilevskiy after a loss it’s hard not to back him here tonight. The Lightning have the playoff experience and should be able to pull this one out tonight to force a Game 7.
– TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING ml (-133) – Barstool
I took this Tampa Bay at -122 on Circa this morning so be sure to follow me on Twitter @GatorBetting.
Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings
The Oilers are on the brink of elimination tonight and are going all in moving Leon Draisaitl up to the first line with McDavid and Yamamoto. Evander Kane has been moved down to the second line with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman. The Kings are at home tonight so they will be able to get the matchups they want. It’ll be interesting to see if they try to match Edmonton’s top line up with Danault or Kopitar’s line. I don’t have an official play in this matchup tonight but I do lean the under.
– LEAN: EDMONTON OILERS/ LOS ANGELES KINGS UNDER 6.5 (-115)
Linemate Player Prop of the Night
For tonight’s Linemate Player Prop were looking at Brayden Point over 2.5 Shots on Goal. Point has gone over this number in three of the five games this series. He missed in the first game with 2 SOG, then responded nicely in Game 3 with 6. In Game 5, he did miss that total by one shot on goal, so I’m looking for him to follow that same trend we saw earlier and have a big night tonight. It’s also an elimination game for the Lightning tonight and they’ll need Point to generate some offense for them.
If you’re looking to start using Linemate, click the link below. You can get a free trial to start which gives you access to all of their amazing data. If you wish to continue to use their product after the free trail, use my code ‘GATOR’ for 25% off any purchase.
Thursday card has a 4 game NHL Quad pack with four Game 6 Round 1 Historical Systems, The 100% National League Game of the Month and our NBA Round 2 Playoff Game Of The Year. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on Oakland at 1:10 eastern. Oakland has controlled the series winning 20 of 27 here in Detroit and they fit a nice dog system here that pertains to last nights Blowout shutout win. Oakland is 10-2 on Thursdays. Detroit is 1-5 vs a pitcher with a 1.30 or higher Whip, 1-6 at home and 6-22 in this totals range. Kapellian for Oakland was solid in his 2nd start and should pitch better than Brieske. Look for Oakland to take the finale. On Thursday Rob has a huge card up with 4 NHL Plays All from Round 1 Game 6 specific systems, the National League Game Of The Month and the NBA Round 2 Playoff Game Of The Year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out on Thursday. For the Comp Play. Go with Oakland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to take a first look at the 2022 college football season. First, Kiev recaps the weekend of UFC and a crazy Kentucky derby finish. Next, Kiev get’s into college football talking about the top and bottom 10 teams in returning production. Then, Kiev talks about some 10 teams that benefitted from the transfer portal. Finally, Kiev gets into a little UFC for the weekend with a FREE PLAY for your weekend pleasure. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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