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MLB Free Picks – 4-28-22

By
Dan Everett
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We have a great slate of afternoon games today to choose from. I have found value to begin this season on No Runs First Inning (NRFI) and First 5 Innings totals. Today, I will be sticking with NRFI.

Astros @ Rangers – 2:05 pm ET – NRFI -118 1U

The Astros are sending Justin Verlander to the mound to start today’s game. He’s been stellar so far this year in the first inning allowing 1 hit, 1 walk, to go along with 4 strikeouts. He has yet to allow a run and opposing hitters are batting .111. This Rangers lineup also hasn’t been great to start off the year. Cole Kalhoun, Marcus Semien, and Cory Seager are all under .250 season averages and have 1 home run combined.

The Rangers will send Martin Perez out today for his third start of the season. He has been pretty solid in the first inning so far. He’s allowed 2 hits to go along with 2 strikeouts. He has allowed 1 run in 3 innings of work, but hitters are only batting .200 against him in the first inning. Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman are always threats to put one in the bleachers, but outside of McCormick none of them are hitting particularly well in the first inning or against lefties.

I like the value here at -118. Take the NRFI or U0.5 R 1 inning.

Guardians @ Angels – 4:07 pm ET – NRFI +100 1U

The Guardians will tap Cal Quantrill to get the start against the Angels. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so he will rely on his sinker, slider, and cutter to generate ground balls. His ground ball to fly ball split is pretty even the first time through the order. He has yet to give up a home run the first or second time through the order as well. Hitters are batting .100 against him with 1 hit and 1 walk in 3 innings of work. Ohtani and Trout are always dangerous at the top of the order, but I think Cal can get the job done here.

The Angels send out Reid Detmers. The lefty has struggled at times. He has given up 1 run on 1 hit in the first inning through 3 innings of work, along with 3 walks. He has countered that with 6 strikeouts in those 3 innings however. The only scary bat in the top 3 of this Guardians lineup is Jose Ramirez. He has not hit lefties particularly well to start this season though, so I think Detmers can get around him.

There were fireworks last night as both teams put up 2 runs in the first inning against these two teams best pitchers. As long as the walks are kept to a minimum, I don’t think that happens here again this afternoon. Take NRFI +100 or U0.5 R 1 inning.

Adding a Play

By
Chris R. Farley
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76ers/Raptors under 210, 1 unit

I just can’t wrap my head around this game going over. This is in Toronto, the crowd will be wild, the Raptors’ defense has been sensational, the Philly offense is stumbling, and both teams play at a pedestrian pace.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets – NBA Picks Pod, April 28

By
Chris R. Farley
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Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, running down the court after a made basket.

 

Laying the Points is BACK! In this episode, I cover the 3 NBA playoff games today, I talk the conference semifinals, and as usual, I rant about a few sports betting strategies. Check out the podcast, subscribe, and send in questions any time!

We’ve been on FIRE, going 16-4 the last week – If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here! Onto our free pick!

April 28th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I’m rolling with a pair of MLB plays today looking to bounce back after an 0-2 Wednesday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Phillies -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–12:05 PM CT

The Phillies have won the first 3 games of this series by an average nearly 6 runs/game, and I see no reason things will change today. Despite a less than ideal start to the season, Phillies SP Zack Wheeler is still one of the best pitchers in the game. His blowup in Miami was a true anomaly, and the Brewers put together a good 5th inning in his last start that spoiled what was otherwise a great outing. At home last year, Wheeler had a brilliant 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that I believe will continue to flounder away from Coors Field. Rockies SP Austin Gomber is a soft-throwing lefty that has some of the most stark home/road splits in the game. He was very effective at Coors Field last season, but on the road, he held an atrocious 6.22 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and allowed 2 HR/9. The Rockies bullpen has also regressed back to being one of the worst in baseball after a fluky hot start to this campaign. The Philly offense has caught fire in this series, and against lefties this year, they hold the 2nd best OPS in the league. The stars seem to be aligned for another Phillies blowout, and the fact we’re getting this at even money is more than fair in my opinion.

*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5(-105)–2:07 PM CT

Did you ever imagine a world in which a Red Sox/Blue Jays game would have a total this low? While the Red Sox offense has come out of the gates slow this year, they have shown signs over their past 2 games that they are turning a corner(5 runs on Tuesday, 7 runs last night). I don’t have much bad to say about Blue Jays SP Alek Manoah; he’s 3-0 to start this year after enjoying a very solid rookie campaign in 2021. However, I do think the Red Sox will put up tough AB’s against him today. When they get to the Blue Jays bullpen, the flood gates could open. While Toronto’s bullpen ranks 3rd in WHIP this season, I don’t think that’s sustainable whatsoever. Last night, the Red Sox tallied 6 runs in 4 innings against this unit, and I think today could yield a similar result. With that said, I think the Blue Jays offense will have plenty of opportunities themselves. Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock has been great coming out of the bullpen these past 2 seasons, but this is just his 2nd career start. He has never gone more than 4 innings in a major league game, and who knows if he will carry his past success into this new role. In any case, I have zero trust the Red Sox bullpen, a unit that is going to be counted on heavily in today’s game. Toronto’s offense hasn’t even gotten hot up to this point, yet they still rank 5th in slugging, 7th in batting average, and have hit the most home runs in the league. I see a lot of value on the Over here given the potential of each offense and my lack of trust in each of these pitching staffs.

Rob V: Thursday MLB Play + NBA Round 1 Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR INFO

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Thursday card has the NBA 1ST Round GAME Of the Year with a Perfect Power System and a Long term historical System. We also have the MLB Game Of The Month and a Top Europa League Soccer total. MLB Comp play below.
 
The MLB Comp Play is on Miami at 1:00 eastern. The Marlins will look to complete the 4 game sweep here and we note that home dogs off 7 home losses the last 3 as a home dog lose 80% of the time since 2004. Miami is 5-0 as a road favorite and has won 9 of 11 vs the N.L East. The National are fading fast and have dropped 16 of 21 vs a lefty and 5 straight when the total is 7 to 8.5. Miami has a pitching advantage with Rogers over Corbin who has lost 4 of 5 vs Miami. Look for the Fish to get the sweep. On Thursday The NBA Playoffs 1st Round Play of the Year Headlines and is backed with a Perfect Playoff System. In Bases the MLB Game Of The Month is up along with a Top Level Europa League Soccer total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the MLB Comp play. Make it Miami. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Will the Marlins be at 0.500 at the end of the season?

By
John Ryan
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The Miami Marlins (8-8) have won three straight road games and are playing their fifth road game of their six-game road trip. They won 2-of-3 games against the Atlanta Braves and won the opener of this three-game series against the Nationals behind another great start by Sandy Alcantara. Even more impressive is that the Marlins are 6-2 making 4.6 units-per-unit bet on the money line against NL East divisional foes.

The Washington Nationals are in last place (6-13) in the NL East and trail the division-leading New York Mets by 8-games. They are not playing well right now and there are no signs of turning things around anytime soon noting they are 9-35 as a home underdog over the last two seasons and 19-50 when priced as an underdog between +110 and +150 over the last two seasons. In addition, they are a terrible 9-27 in home games following two or more consecutive losses spanning the last two seasons.

Bet the Fish using the money line.

Premiums 4.28 (NFL Draft info inside)

By
Chris R. Farley
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HEY, it’s NFL Draft day and my Giants have two picks in the top 10 – let’s gooooooo! Sorry that I’m getting to this late – as a handicapper my job is to get you guys the best value possible and, truth be told, it would have been more advantageous to send you the draft picks earlier in the week. Like I said previously, I don’t consider myself a “draft expert” by any means, so take my plays lightly – @ronacesports would be my pick of who to follow and adhere to on draft predictions. Onto today’s slate!

NBA Picks:
  • Mavs/Jazz 1Q under 54, 2 units and
  • Mavs win, 1.5 units
    • Listen, it’s the playoffs, the playoffs are hard, and anything can happen when teams are vying for the next round. I’m not sure this Jazz team is capable. Consider this: look ahead into the future and picture the current version of the Jazz, with the clear discord inside that locker room, and imagine that same team hoisting up a championship trophy this year… yea, it’s not going to happen. The Mavs believe, as they should, that they’re capable of going all the way. This is a team that’s growing in front of our eyes, burgeoning as a more complete offense, and abiding by Jason Kidd’s defensive mentality. Donovan Mitchell is banged up, Rudy Gobert is all over the place, and other Utah players are trying their hardest to hold up a team that’s lacking real chemistry. Not a SINGLE one of these 1st quarters have eclipsed 50 points, so we’re not sure why it’s so high (again). Both squads go extremely slow and when the game begins, defensive energy is really high. Unless there’s wild variance, we’re pretty confident this falls below 54. Mavs win, slow game, goodnight Utah!
  • Raptors ML (EVEN), 1 unit
    • Just one unit here but the Raptors are at home, streaking with confidence, Embiid is still dealing with that thumb crap, and again James Harden may take on more of the onus here – I sell Philly when that happens. Raptors win and create a game 7.
NFL Draft:
  • Logan Hall under 35.5, 2.70 units to win 2
    • Tom Pelissero has talked at length about Logan Hall getting drafted in the 1st round. We think he’ll go to the Bengals at 31, and there’s an even greater chance that he’ll be taken point blank below 35. Taking it,.
  • 1st Walker, 2nd A. Hutchinson, 3rd D. Stingley, 1 unit (+190)
    • Stingley at 3 is the toughest call but most “experts” are fairly certain that 1 and 2 are spot on. The probability is higher that Stingley
  • Aidan Hutchinson #2 (-150), 1.5 units to win 1
  • Ikem Ekwonu first O-Lineman selected, (-200) 2 units to win 1
    • This feels like it should be more juiced – whispers are circulating that Ekwonu could go BEFORE Travon Walker (he won’t), but the Giants have this guy circled if/when the top 4 teams pass on him.
  • Malik Willis under 13.5 (+120), 1 unit
    • A few NFL teams could be interested in Willis and trade up, and his stock has only risen by what scouts have seen.
MLB Picks:
  • Rockies/Phillies over 7.5, 1.1 units to win 1
    • These two teams just keep on smacking balls in Philly and unless there’s extreme regression, Wheeler has started off cold and Gomber is very hittable – we think it blows over the total once again.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

April 27th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A -1.35u Tuesday ended a nice 4 day winning streak for me, but I’m back with 2 MLB plays today looking to get back in the green. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT

While the new dimensions at Camden Yards certainly haven’t favored the Orioles at home this season, this offense is in good form on their current road trip. Over their last 5 games(1 at OAK, 3 at LAA, 1 at NYY), Baltimore is averaging 5.6 runs/game and have plated at least 4 runs in each game during that stretch, including 8 against these Yankees last night. They’ll face a familiar arm tonight in lefty Jordan Montgomery. While Montgomery held the Orioles down earlier this season, I do think the offense will have the advantage tonight having seen this same arm so recently. Montgomery is a pretty dependable arm, but a career 1.26 WHIP and 1.14 HR/9 also show that he’s not a world beater. One of the only situations I could trust the Orioles in last season was against lefties in good hitting ballparks, and that is exactly what we’re getting in this situation(the wind will be blowing out 14 mph to right center in an already small park). I’m going to ride with the Orioles’ offense at this small number and reasonable price. 

*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+165) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT

I was shocked to see this line so high. I know the Twins have won 5 straight, but that needs to be contextualized a bit. They swept a White Sox team over the weekend that is likely in the worst form they will be in all season, and they probably should’ve lost last night’s game to this Detroit team. Twins SP Joe Ryan has thrown just 42.2 career innings; while he’s been solid so far at the major league level, he did give up 6 ER in 4.2 IP against the Tigers at the end of last season. There is not enough data points on Ryan to throw out this big of a number in his favor, especially considering Michael Pineda is on the mound for Detroit. Pineda is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game in my opinion(career 1.19 WHIP) and just threw 5 shutout innings against the Yankees lineup. Even with the Twins’ recent success in mind, they still have very mediocre numbers in almost every offensive category. I really don’t like either bullpen, but Minnesota’s pen has performed substantially worse up to this point in the season. I have noticed that, while the Tigers offense might not always come out hot, they do not give at bats away late in games. This is why they’ve been able to keep so many games close this season and even put together a few comeback victories. In any case, this is a bad line, and I’m willing to put a full unit down to net 1.65u for us.

NBA Free Pick from FarleyBets – Nuggets @ Warriors, Game 5

By
Chris R. Farley
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Steph-Curry-Sad-Nuggets-GETTY-1361666103

 

We’ve been on FIRE, going 15-3 the last 5 days in premium NBA picks! We’re hitting at 60% and over 10 units in the playoffs already. Let’s get some more! If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here! Onto our free pick!

Warriors 1H -5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Warriors looked like a true juggernaut in games one and two of this series. Winning game one by 16 points and game two by 20, the Warriors shot an outrageous 53.5% from the field and 43.5% from beyond the arc in those contests. And it wasn’t a fluke.

Some aspects of sports are hard to quantify. For example:

  • The way Grizzlies players seem to always win the loose-ball wars
  • The way Giannis can explode in 2 fluid steps from the 3 point line for a dunk
  • The way Luka lulls defenders to sleep and creates space
  • The way Draymond Green reads offenses before they get a chance to run their play

We could go on, but you get the point. In this case, it’s the Warriors offensive chemistry that’s really tough to quantify, but that doesn’t mean there’s anything fake or temporary about it. In game two at the Chase Center, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson and Steph Curry combined for 31/52 from the field– a whopping 60%. The fluidity was awe-inspiring and Denver seemed to have NO answer for what they were seeing. The Nuggets aren’t built to withstand such offensive attacks (in truth, few teams are); they’re bigger, slower, and they can’t just switch and hang with the Warriors’ 3-headed monster. Only a handful of NBA teams could even be competitive with the Golden State offense when they’re functioning that seamlessly, and this feels like the spot where we could see a repeat performance.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are walking into a classic trap. Off a hard-fought win at home to keep this series alive, Jokic and his supporting cast, who all had better performances in game four, might have some renewed hope. Normally that’s a positive thing, but I don’t think it will be tonight. Young teams, and the Nuggets are mostly very young, tend to let their guards down naturally once they get a win. If they do, expect a fired up Warriors offense, with Curry off his limited restriction, to put on a show early.

The Warriors defense uncharacteristically allowed a few too many easy buckets to Denver in game four; expect nothing of that sort tonight. I’m betting that Golden State comes out on fire and overwhelms Denver in the first half. I lean Warriors -9, too, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Curry had a HUGE scoring night. The table is set.

Premiums, 4.27

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hey All!

Down night in the NBA – Atlanta fought but they could never find a rhythm, and the Miami offense actually seemed to go SLOWER without Jimmy Butler. Noted.
The Grizzlies couldn’t buy a damn shot to save their life for about 45 of the 48 game time minutes last night. Free throws, 3s, layups – nothing was dropping and they still won. Feels like we were on the “right” side of that but hey, that’s variance for ya.
Always nice when we can get a 2-0 day in MLB. We’re about even, finally, after a rough start to the season. Onto today’s picks!
NBA Picks:
  • Warriors 1Q -3 and
  • Warriors 1H -5, both for 1.5 units
    • This is our lone bet tonight since I think the Milwaukee line is damn sharp, especially since Chicago’s without LaVine. I would lean Bucks early, Chicago late in that one.
    • The Nuggets are walking into a classic trap. Off a hard-fought win at home to keep this series going, Jokic and his supporting cast, who all had better performances in game 4, might have some renewed hope tonight. Normally that’s a positive thing; I don’t think it will be in this case. Young teams, and the Nuggets are mostly very young, tend to let their guards down naturally once they get a win. Now the series returns to Golden State, where the Warriors looked like a true juggernaut in games 1 and 2, and Steph Curry will have NO minutes restriction. Rut row. The Warriors defense uncharacteristically allowed a few too many easy buckets to Denver in game 4; expect nothing of that sort tonight. I’m betting that Golden State comes out on fire and overwhelms Denver early. I lean Warriors -9, too, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Curry had a HUGE scoring night. The table is set.
MLB Picks:
  • Orioles/Yankees over 8, 1.15 units to win 1
    • As long as the Orioles keep on delivering us bad pitching, we’ll keep finding ways to take advantage against the Yankees. Avoiding a side here since Baltimore started to find an offensive rhythm last night, but I think this is another easy over.
  • Phillies first 5 -0.5 (+105), 1 unit to win 1.05
    • Few young guns have looked as steady as Ranger Suarez and this is a nice spot, against a Colorado lineup that has to cool off eventually, for the Phillies to take an early lead. Value is on the home-town Phils.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 
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