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Premiums 4.24 off a 11-0 streak!

By
Chris R. Farley
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11-0 run in NBA Picks… what else am I supposed to say? Of course this takes a bit of good fortune— you won’t see me proclaiming to be your savior like some cappers do (lol), but it’s nice when season-long projections and assertions come to fruition. Very satisfying feeling, onto another day!

NBA Picks:
Lean, Bulls +4.5
I think Milwaukee is the WAY better team and they’ll continue to prove it, but this is a super desperate spot for Chicago. Can’t go down 3-1 and on your way to Fiserv Forum again. Don’t want to bet on this game — too close to call.
Lean, Warriors -4.5
I think this is the end of Denver’s season, there’s just too much to overcome, but like the narrative above, the Nuggets are ultra desperate and motivated to stay alive. If Denver leads early, look to take Golden State live. No official play here.
Heat/Hawks 1Q under 57, 1.5 units
This number is inflated because of that amazing 2nd QTR from Atlanta in game 3 but let’s not kid ourselves. The pace has been generally slow to start these games and the Heat defense will look to avenge a loss with vice-grip defense from the start. Like the under early.
Suns -2.5, 1.5 units
The Suns beat the Pelicans and covered in game 3 and they only shot 15% from beyond the arc! That won’t happen again, and there’s still room for the Suns’ defense to correct some wrongs. Monty is an exceptional coach; I expect more adjustments and a cleaner effort by Phoenix tonight. They take the Pelicans’ soul on the sabbath.
MLB Picks:
Giants first 5 -1 (+105), 1 unit
The Giants are having their way with the Nats, who look less and less like the stellar team they used to be. Superior pitcher in the first 5 and ALL the momentum – taking SF early.
Padres (+127), 1 unit
Talk about momentum, the Padres escaped with an extra innings win last night and Manaea has looked sensational to start the season. Value on the home dog!

Premier League Sunday Play!

By
Steve Norman
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Current Soccer Record: 47-50 +3.13

Wolverhampton ML (+195) 1 Unit

 Usually lines like these give me cause for concern. We have a club in Wovlerhampton on the road against a bottom tier opponent that is fighting their way out of relegation. The value is simply there. I have seen this time and time again with Wolverhampton ; money lines where you would expect them to be the favorites and they aren’t . Most recent case; April 2nd being +205 at home to Aston Villa’s +165, and winning 2-1.   Made me stay away from hammering the Wolverhampton ML and take them PK instead. Before that was March 13th; +250 on the road against Everton, winning 1-0.   They are still finding wins with great value when the lines are naturally raising red flags.   We are not missing out this time.

Burnley has had two decent matches as of late with a 2-0 win over Southampton and a draw against West Ham United. But let’s not forget this is the same club that let down 2-0 to Norwich the week prior.   Last match against WHU was Burnley’s first match without their long time manager Sean Dyche as he was released 2 days prior. We usually see teams/clubs rally in these type of moments to succeed under replacements the next game/match.   That momentum and rallying spirit is over. Wolverhampton reminds Burnley why they are facing relegation.

April 23rd MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I started out the weekend with a winning Friday as my headliner on the Mets TT OVER came through! Today, I’m rolling with 3 more MLB plays, all of which you can see below. I don’t have write-ups for today’s plays, but I still wanted to get these out to y’all. To receive a text when I add/release any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Tigers GM1 F5 -0.5(-105) vs Rockies–12:10 PM CT

*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 5.5(+100) @ Diamondbacks–7:10 PM CT

*MLB(1u): Padres F5 ML(-105) vs Dodgers–7:40 PM CT

Write-ups will be back tomorrow. Let’s take care of business and go 3-0 today!

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday MLB Totals System Play + NHL TOTAL OF THE YEAR info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Huge Saturday Card has the 2022 NHL Total of the Year and 3 Powerful NBA Playoff Power Systems along with MLB and Soccer. MLB Comp Play below/

The MLB Comp play is on the Over 9 Runs in the NY. Mets at Arizona game at 8:10 eastern. This game looks to be a bullpen game here as the Mets have Trevor Williams going and Arizona Castellanos. Neither has pitched much and neither will be in their very long. The game its self fits an 80% long term Over system pertaining to non divisional road favorites off a road favored win scoring 6 or more vs an opponent who scored 5 or more as a home dog if the posted total is 7 or higher. The Mets are 3 of 4 over of late and 14 of 20 vs .400 or less teams. These two have gone over 4 straight in this park and we should see some scoring here tonight. On Saturday the NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year headlines a powerful 3 game NBA Card and the 2022 Highest Rated NHL Total of the Year headline . Hockey. We also have MLB Power System plays and a Top Soccer Total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twiter to jump on. For the MLB Comp play. Go Over 9 runs in the NYM at Arizona game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Premiums, 4.23

By
Chris R. Farley
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How about it ladies and gents – a cool 7-0 run in NBA picks and our MLB wager cashes Friday too. Hallelujah— maybe it’s the new house vibes. Head down, let’s keep churning out these wins!

NBA Picks:
76ers/Raptors under 213.5, 1 unit
This series has really been slowing down – Toronto and Philly are the slowest paced teams in the playoffs at only 88 possessions per game. Philly has played nearly perfect offensive basketball so that only gives us more reason to think they’ll probably experience a more disappointing outing eventually. Toronto’s defense showed real fight in game 3– expect a very physical battle and I wouldn’t be surprised if it fell under 200 total points.
Mavericks +6, 1.5 units
So wait, now Luka could legitimately return (he’ll go through a full practice and will be a game time decision today), but even if he doesn’t, why would I assume this Jazz outfit is going to present differently today?  There’s clear discord in that locker room, D. Mitchell is off, Gobert looks meh, Quinn Snyder seems to have lost his grasp, and Dallas has found myriad ways to take advantage. Brunson and Dinwiddie, as we noted months ago, are lethal on the court together, and this team knows how to stifle Utah on defense. Give me the points!
Nets/Celtics 1Q over 54.5, 1.5 units and
Celtics full game ML, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
If you like Brooklyn, I’d take them early. I’m sure the Nets will come out on fire and that’s why we like the 1Q over. Durant and Kyrie will be out for blood after poor shooting nights in game 2, Brooklyn traditionally starts at a faster pace at home, and the only way the Nets can win is by staying ahead and maintaining the half-court advantage on defense. But if we haven’t learned how elite the Celtics have been playing, there’s something wrong with us. Their halftime adjustments have been gold and their 2nd half defense is absolutely next-level. Celtics punch Brooklyn in the mouth one more time, and it may be the final nail in the coffin.
Lean 1Q over and lean Grizzlies-3
I’m not betting on this game today because this series is just getting weirded and weirder. The total has gone down for the first QTR, which is kind of silly, and I can’t count on Minnesota at this point. I’m sure it’ll be entertaining- no bets for me tho. And I would caution you in taking these leans yourself.
MLB Picks:
Brewers/Phillies Run in 1st Inning: Yes, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Two struggling pitchers facing lineups that have been consistently hitting. Taking a shot.
Blue Jays first 5 (+105), 1 unit
Manoah looks great and he’s in a good spot to give Toronto an early edge.
No UFC picks, but I lean M. Barber and Puelles.
Let’s goooo! Happy Saturday crew!

NFL 2022 Draft Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Gonna go with a good plus money longer shot here that I think has value. I usually do not love to take non-binary draft plays, but that doesn’t mean that they all do not have value.  I think that we have to look at each team’s situation, and when one of them sticks out like a soar thumb, and the odds align, you have to jump at it.  The New England Patriots draft 21st which pretty much means that the top edge rushers and offensive tackles will be gone.  Belichik will know this and look for value where he needs it.  The Patriots obviously do not need to reach for a quarterback, and they are quite full at the tight end position.  There are wide receivers available, but Bill knows that he took some flack from the media for reaching for one a few years back with N’Keal Harry.   He also can get plenty of WR value in round two.

The situation for the Patriots is that they have their three MAIN linebackers as free agents right now in Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and Jaime Collins.  I could see them coming to terms with one or two of them, but drafting one will not only give the Patriots leverage, it will also give them depth in a huge position of need.  At least one of the three top linebackers will be available here if not all three.  I think there is at least a 50% shot the Pats go this way, and the price on Draftkings is +300 for them to select a linebacker first.  Grab the value.

Patriots 1st pick linebacker – +300 – .5 stars

 

April 22nd MLB 2-Pack

By
Michael Fordham
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I suffered an 0-2 Wednesday and have seen a dip in the MLB after a scorching hot start. With that said, this weekend presents a great opportunity to break out, and I’ve got 2 plays for tonight looking to do just that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 4.5(+100) @ Diamondbacks–8:40 PM CT

The Mets(10-4) have started off the season hot at the plate. Entering tonight, they rank 3rd in batting average, 2nd in runs, and 8th in slugging. Against righties this season, they hold a well above-average .800 OPS, good for 4th in the league. They’ll face Zac Gallen for the second time in the same week. While Gallen threw 4 shutout innings at Citi Field last Saturday, he only struck out 2 Mets hitters. Gallen is a talented arm but has a history of inopportune walks and homers allowed, and he averaged just over 5 IP/start last year. That leaves the D-Backs bullpen getting tasked with more than they can handle, as they have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league. They also had to dig deep into that bullpen in their recent 4 game series in Washington, and they’ll have zero days of rest entering tonight. I’m going to play against the notion that Gallen is going to keep the Mets at bay twice in the same week, and I’m inclined to trust the Mets bats given how they’ve rounded into form this early in the season. I thought getting this at even money was a bargain. 

*MLB(0.63u): Guardians F5 ML(+160) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT

There are teams like the Yankees in every sport: well-known organization, history of success, but FAR too overvalued in the betting markets. The Yankees have been shut out twice in their past 4 games against the Orioles and Tigers, including in yesterday’s game in Detroit. For a lineup with so many big names, they hold just a .651 OPS against righties at this point in the season. Guardians SP Eli Morgan has been far better on the road up to this point in his career, and he has stepped up in his bigger starts. He threw 6 innings of 1 run ball in Yankee Stadium last year and saw many of his best starts come in spots against some of the league’s best offenses. The Guardians couldn’t come into this game in better current form as they just swept the White Sox in a 3 game set. The Guardians rank 2nd in the league in OPS against righties(.821) and will have their chances again tonight. Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is above average by my estimation, but he also gave up 1.5 HR/9 last season and struck out less than 9 hitters/9 innings. Cleveland pummeled a very similar type arm in Dylan Cease yesterday, and from what they’ve shown so far, I think they can keep it rolling into tonight. This price is far too high given how each team enters this matchup; I will take a shot with the ‘dog in the first 5 innings of this game to win a full unit. 

MLB Free Plays Friday – Getting Freaky with Freddy

By
Shawn Knoche
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Hasn’t been a stellar start to baseball season for me. 25-28-1 is where we sit so far. Trying to get back on the good side today. You can get all my plays here at TheOddsbreakers.com for $50 a month. That includes MLB going on now, as well as Horse Racing (Derby is coming!), NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

Looking at Friday plays the first game that jumped out at me was the Brewers (+104) vs the Phillies (-124) O/U 8. Taking the bump are Freddy Peralta for the Crew and Ranger Suarez for the Phils. Both pitchers are very similar. They both feature a ++ Fastball (Or sinker in Ranger’s case) and a dangerous slider.  Freddy Peralta’s fastball was the 7th best pitch in baseball according to statcast in 2021. and Suarez’s sinker was the 9th best. So far neither has pitched well. Suarez is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.96 WHIP over 7.2 IP with 5 Ks and 4 BBs. Freddy Peralta on the flip side has a 11.57 ERA, a 2.29 WHIP over 7 IP with 10 Ks and 6 BBs. The problem for both is finding the plate and then getting hit hard when forced to pitch across it. Currently BABIP against for Peralta is a crazy .474 and his LOB% is only 51.3%. While neither of these trends will continue I trust Freddy to get back on track quicker simply do to his advantage in keeping the ball out of play by striking guys out. His xFIP even with all the issues is only at 3.95, Suarez sits at 4.69.

The Phillies offense has been the better of the two so far early this season, and with Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto and Castellanos that is to be expected. They have already made a trip to Coors, so that does factor in some. Milwaukee hasn’t gotten their boppers going yet, and that is concerning, however no one has really gotten going yet outside of Vlad Jr, and a few others.

For me this is all about Peralta getting back on track. He strikes out better than 12 Per 9 innings and has a 3/1K/BB ratio for his career. With that 7th best pitch in baseball he won’t be struggling for long.  Plus money Peralta, and a chance to do it full game with Milwaukee’s superior bullpen if they are behind is great. He won’t be getting odds like this much longer so lets take advantage now.

Brewers +104 1 Unit

Alternate Run Line Brewers -1.5 +165 – 1 Unit

Premiums, 4.22

By
Chris R. Farley
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Can’t say I was able to watch those games without internet at the new house but we had one HELL of a night! 4-0, 5-0 if you took our lean, and our 2 unit MLB bet hit too. Let’s get more of THAT – sending these picks out from my phone with my big dumb thumbs so don’t expect this to look as pretty ha—

NBA Picks:
Bucks -2.5, 1.5 units
This is the most predictable bet you’ll see from me but in this industry if you don’t trust your instinct and your numbers, you’ll be lost, quick. Middleton out is a huge loss, Chicago plays “better at home,” (not by much), we get it. This is a Giannis takeover game (his PAR line is at 56, an insane number, for a reason). Good luck, Chicago!
Parlay— Hawks win 1H and 1H over 113.5, 1 unit to win 2.32 units
We don’t count parlays in our overall record, remember that, but my calculations say that we hit way more than we don’t. This one makes too much sense. Great setup for ATL at home, where they play considerably better, and Trae will want to put up points quick to gain an edge and throw off Miami’s spacing on defense. Adebayo is also a little banged up heading into this, which could free up space in the paint.
Suns -1, 3 units
We already sent out this play and you already know how I feel about it. New Orleans is a feisty, solid group that’s growing before our eyes and has a ton of potential in the seasons to come. The Suns LIVE for these moments, even without their star in Booker, and you can expect them to be very well prepared on both sides of the court. Anticipate a really thorough defensive effort (I lean under— I capped it at 213) and a creative game from CP3. Phoenix has more than enough depth to easily win this contest. Big time value on the road favorite at a cheap price — we’re buying!
MLB Picks:
Rays/Red Sox under 8.5, to win 1 unit
The Rays bats are due for a cool off session and I think these two aces can go into the 6-7th inning. 8.5 feels about 2 runs too high.
PS— Expect limited MLB plays the next few days. Without internet, I can still roll with NBA. That’s a little more difficult to do with a sport I don’t have the same prowess in.

Adding a Team Total

By
Chris R. Farley
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The Warriors team total is only 113 and that’s WAY too low for me – feel sheepish that I missed it before. What has Denver shown us to believe they can stop this potent group, in rhythm, and now especially with Curry playing more tonight?

Na. Warriors TT over 113, 1.5 units
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