Total coming down from 224 as we have a healthy Warriors team that may not have much of an answer for Jokic, but I worry about the Nuggets ability to put up big numbers. We saw when the Warriors were healthy earlier in the season they were a great road under team. I like them to return to that form even though the first two went over in this series.
Warriors also were the best 1H road under team in the first half of the season. The Nuggets were one of the best 1H over teams at home, which is why I think we have the elevated first half number, and both games in the series have gone under this 1H number. Give me the 1H under!
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The NBA Playoffs are in full-swing and it’s as wild as predicted! Chris speaks to the current playoff series, gives some lookahead leans, and he discusses more of his experiences and insights as a pro-handicapper, including the psychology that he discussed last week with Dr. Cait. Send in any questions you may have, tune in, and subscribe!
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FarleyBets Overview:
5th Place 2021 NFL Circa Winner (114k prize)
57% Career record in the NBA Regular Season (490-375)
Analyst for BetUS, Vegas Insider, and Sports Wagering University
Thursday card is loaded with the 7* 2X Perfect NHL Top play, the NBA Western Conf Playoff Game Of The Month, a Powerful MLB Perfect System totals play and a top Soccer total in afternoon action. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Under 7.5 to 8 runs in the Minnesota at KC Game at 2:10 eastern. These two have gone under in 15 of 20 here.The Game fits a 10-2 April specific system that plays under for road favorites off a road favored shutout loss vs an opponent off a home dog win that scored 2 or less runs. Both Pitchers have been solid early on. Ryan for the Twins has a 2.70 ERA and Greinke is at 2.45. The Twins are 3 of 3 under vs losing teams, 4 of 5 vs a righty and 18 of 24 vs a team that scored 2 or less runs. KC has gone under in 9 of 11 vs a starter with a 1.15 or less WHIP and their last 5 overall. Look for this game to stay Under. On Thursday Rob has a Huge card up and led by a Red Circle highest Rated 7* NHL 2X Perfect system. The NBA Western Conf. Playoff Game Of The Month, a Top Rated Afternoon Soccer total and an undefeated MLB Power System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the MLB Comp Play. Take the Twins and the Royals under the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Morning, people. Frustrating night in more ways than one. Let’s address what’s happening right now and what I’m seeing:
Don’t be fooled – the Bulls are NOT in the same class as Milwaukee. I promise. This shouldn’t be a goddamn series, but if the Bucks need a kick in the ass, well, they just got it. The Bucks just aren’t in playoff-form yet and they’re showing signs of rust (or perhaps overconfidence). The series moving to Chicago will be interesting, but we’re not off our position just yet. I have the Bucks as 8 points better than Chicago.
The Nets just can’t get over the hump against Boston. What the Celtics are able to do in the 2nd half, particularly how they clamp down on defense, is insanely impressive. This is the best team in the NBA right now.
Betting Toronto early was the call and I wish we did it. Good for the 76ers, but I still don’t think this is a series sweep.
Onto the picks – let’s make up for it today. A few folks told me my emails have gone to their JUNK folder – make sure you don’t miss these! If you don’t get my emails before 10 AM ET, something is probably off.
NBA Picks:
MIN/MEM 1Q over 58.5, 1 unit
MIN/MEM under 236, 1.5 units
As we predicted, these games are starting to really slow down late. A full game total of 236 is too rich for the pace we’re seeing at the end, not to mention the margin that these clubs tend to beat each other. Young inexperienced players tend to give up and we saw that from Minnesota in game 2. In the 1st quarter, overs have been easy hits. Even in the last contest, where they opened up only scoring 6 points in the first 3 minutes (typically these squads score about 15 combined points per 3 minutes), the pace and efficiency quickly escalated and we saw a 65 point 1st QTR. Over early, under late.
Lean, Mavericks +7
The Jazz are at home and this line is pretty sharp – can’t pull the trigger, but with Luka possibly returning and seeing how hard this Dallas team fights, it’ll be hard to not put something on the Mavericks tonight.
Warriors -2, 1.5 units
Yea I’m going to need to see some proof that Denver can keep up with THIS version of Golden State. This is a team that has a ton of momentum right now, which is a big deal in basketball, and should get in-rhythm quickly again. The Nuggets just don’t seem to have the personnel or matchup advantages they need to take control of this game. Lean over, too.
MLB Picks:
CHW/CLE under 8, 1.05 units to win 1
The Guardians offense has exploded recently, so naturally we’d expect some regression. Two sure-fire pitchers on the mound should help. Feels like a great spot for an under, especially for a Cleveland team that’s taken advantage of inefficiencies from the White Sox pitchers. Things regress to the mean this afternoon.
Athletics ML, 2.5 units to win 2
Alright enough of this bullshit – the A’s love to let inferior teams hang around, but their bats are WAY overdue for a better performance and Paul Blackburn looked phenomenal in his first 2 starts. More depth, at home, off a loss, I expect the Athletics to take this with ease. Hopefully my expectations match Oakland’s attitude today.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 31: Quarterback Carson Strong #12 of the Nevada Wolf Pack looks to throw against the UNLV Rebels in the first half of their game at Allegiant Stadium on October 31, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Carson Strong – 6’4 – 9.5 inch hands – 4.81 forty. He looks the part to fit into a pro-style offense in transition from a partial air raid style at Nevada. Got to love the 70% completion percentage. 36-8 TD to interception ratio. Sorry, not sorry. This quarterback class is completely up in the air and Strong grades out like his last name.
Malik Willis – 6’1 – 9.5 inch hands – 4.42 forty. Malik actually had a better passer rating than Lamar Jackson in college. He was Liberty’s whole team and really stepped it up. He fits the mold of the new age QB like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Can he save someone’s job out in Carolina?
Desmond Ritter – 6’4 – 10 inch hands – 4.52 forty – Tall, huge hands and knows when to run. He was the second leading rusher on the Bear Cats and could be a Josh Allen type QB for any team. Sometimes I think that maybe this guy is number 1. Hmmmmm.
Matt Corrall – 6’0 – 9.5 inch hands – 4.64 forty – He’s a bit short for the NFL but he is a dual threat QB and deadly accurate on the seam routs. I was in love with this guy until he trashed my 33-1 Heisman ticket vs Alabama. A little short but quick witted
Kenny Pickett – 6’3 – 8.25 inch hands – 4.73 forty – He had an amazing year at Pitt, but some of that might have been due to their great offensive coordinator in Mark Whipple. Kenny was very accurate last year in his deep throws as well as very clutch at 42 – 7 TD to interception ratio, but I can’t get by his small hands being only 8.25 inches. My hands are bigger than his, and I need some stick-em to palm a basketball.
Sam Howell – 6’1 – 9.15 inch hands – 4.87 forty – Sam was a top guy from last year coming into the draft but the fact that the Tarheels lost a ton of talent in last year’s draft didn’t help Sam Howell. He’s a little short, a little slow, and a little disrespected coming into this draft. Should we draft him or nah?
Bailey Zappe – 6’1 – 9.75 inch hands – 4.88 forty – Last year, Bailey broke many records over at Western Kentucky. His size, strength and accuracy last year reminds me of Zach Wilson from BYU who was picked number 2 last year. Too bad that the Hilltopper’s strength of schedule is also comparable to BYU’s of last year. Zach was bad and it doesn’t bode well for Bailey.
We have our first 3 unit play in the NBA Playoffs. Exciting times.
Take the Suns -1, 3 units
Suddenly, because Booker is out and Phoenix is on the road, they’re a virtual pick-em? Ya know what I say to that? Get the fuck outttaaaa here! The Suns are an incredibly deep, talented, and well-coached team. Monty has plenty of time to prepare for game 3 and after Phoenix had such a horrid 2nd half of defense, the Suns will come out with renewed energy on that side of the floor. The Pelicans pretty much couldn’t miss a bucket either, so that’s bound to regress. A line like this one is very rare on a team that should still be considered the favorite to win the title. Booker is important, but he’s not the most essential piece for Phoenix; Chris Paul is, and this team still has their leader. 3 units on the Suns to win/cover.
Prop Tonight: Durant over 36.5 Points and Assists, 1 unit
The Nets will look to expose Boston’s concentrated attention on Durant and that will result in one of 2 things – either a ton of points or a ton of assists for the All-Star and former MVP. Kevin Durant is one of the best offensive players in the world and this feels low for a “response-game” tonight.
A 2-2 Tuesday puts me at 12-14-1, -1.82u in the early parts of this MLB season. Today, I’m taking a look towards 2 plays in the same game and playing on what is some unjustifiable pricing by the oddsmakers. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT OVER 4.5(+118) vs Orioles–5:07 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Athletics -1.5(+160) vs Orioles–5:07 PM CT
Orioles SP Jordan Lyles is coming off a solid start against the Yankees, but this price is showing him FAR too much love. Over 12 MLB seasons, the righty holds a 5.21 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Lyles allowed 1.9 HR/9 last season and mirrored many of his career numbers(which are well below league average). In one start in Oakland last season, Lyles allowed 6 runs in 5.1 IP, yielding 10 hits and 4 walks in the process. I am aware that this Athletics lineup look much different than it did last season, but I also don’t think they have fallen off as much as the +118 price on a standard team total would indicate. As insurance, it is worth noting that Baltimore’s bullpen held a 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season, far and away the worst numbers throughout the league. I know they’ve held up OK up this point in the season, but that is NOT sustainable. It also helps that the wind will be blowing 15 mph out to CF throughout today’s game. I will absolutely fade one of the worst pitching staffs in the league at this price.
Athletics SP Daulton Jefferies should have a pretty manageable matchup facing this Orioles lineup. While Baltimore can be feisty against lefties, they are one of the worst lineups in the league facing right-handed pitching. I worry a little bit about the A’s bullpen closing out this game given they’ve been used a lot over these past 2 nights and have regressed significantly since last season, but I still think getting +160 to fade the Orioles is too good to pass up. Athletics TT is the stronger play, but I will also sprinkle 0.5u on Athletics -1.5 and an unjustifiable price.
The playoffs have been mostly kind to us so far, but there’s a ton of volatility and unpredictable results that can take place when teams are vying for championship goals. It’s important to tread this water carefully and make sure you’re not overinvesting on any one day – there’s plenty of time to make a profit in 2 months of action.
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Bucks 1H -6, 1.5 units: Game one between the Bulls and Bucks was, well, cute. It was a horrendous shooting night for both teams: the Bulls shot 32.3% from the floor and a disgusting 18.9% from beyond the arc, while the Bucks shot 40% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point land. On the one hand we can blame the playoffs, right? Playoff basketball yields stronger defensive effort, typically a slower overall pace, and there’s a shit-ton of pressure in these big game situations. It makes sense that shots are missed frequently, but I don’t think it’ll be as much of an issue for Milwaukee tonight.
The Bucks have been a historically great team in the 1st quarter, especially at home, since we’ve seen this group together. This season they’re ranked 6th in offensive efficiency and in defensive efficiency in the 1st half of games. The Bulls are in the bottom half of the league average in the same categories, and haven’t we seen this story before? Chicago often looks lifeless, lost, and off-rhythm early in games; this is especially true since Lonzo Ball got injured. In game one, the Bulls fell behind by a staggering 13 points in the 1st quarter, and then succumbed to an 8-point deficit at the half.
Overall the Bulls put forth a very solid effort in game 1, but no one should believe that they’re on the same planet as Milwaukee. Giannis and his supporting cast cannot be happy about the way that last game ended. It was a 1-point game with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th QTR, and then a 1-point game again in the final minute of play. Milwaukee looked as stunned as the rest of us. That was probably the best effort and the most ideal result that we’ll see from Chicago in this series.
The Bucks are just SUCH a better team in so many ways: defensively, offensively, from the perimeter, from the paint, how they’re coached, and how talented their personnel is. After a bad shooting night, expect the Bucks to get back to basics. Giannis should thrive in that approach and I think we’ll see him bull-rush (pun intended) his opponent early and often. Remember, the Bulls were one of the worst teams in pro-basketball to end the season – ranked 25th in both offensive and defensive efficiency with a record of 8-15 since the All-Star break. The Bucks starters are considerably better than Chicago’s – Milwaukee makes a statement early; we’ll take them in the 1st half to cover.
Hump Day Card has the NHL West Conf. Game Of The Year, another massive NBA Playoff Power System Game Historical System, along with Soccer and the A..L East Total Of The Month. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB comp Play is on the Under in the Chicago at Cleveland game at 6:10 eastern. This game fits a powerful Undefeated April Specific Totals System. Play the under for home teams off a home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs and allowed 8 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home loss and had 4 or less hits. These games have averages 4 runs per game. With Bieber going and Cleveland having gone under 4 of 5 vs a righty and 5 of 6 at home if the total is 7 to 8.5. Chicago has gone under 6 of 7 as a road dog and 5 of 6 under vs a righty. Look for a lower scoring game. Play the Under. On Wednesday a powerful card is up and backed with the American League East Total of the Month, the NHL Western Conference Game Of the Year, along with the BA Round 1 Game 3 Power System play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash out in all sports. For the MLB Comp play play the Under in the Chicago at Cleveland game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have a wonderful show for you today! Andy Molitor from the Deep Dive Podcast and Betsperts and Matt Landes from Props & Hops, and the BetUS NFL show comes on to break down the NFL draft! First, Andy comes on and the guys talk about how 2022 is going as well as some thoughts on modeling. Then, Kiev and Andy go right into the draft with some position totals as well as some position props and plays. Next, Matt Landes comes on to discuss Matt’s history of sports betting, podcasting, and his love for beer! Matt and Kiev discuss their current top 5 go to beers as of this moment as well as a bunch of draft props and plays that they currently like for the huge venue in Las Vegas. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC Vegas 52 with a few plays. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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