The NCAAB Comp play for Sunday is on Iowa Plus the points at 7:00 eastern. Iowa fresh off a mild upset win at Michigan has home loss revenge on Illinois here tonight and are playing solid right now winners of their last 5 games. They are a top 5 scoring team and have covered 5 of 6 as a road dog. The Illini have failed to cover 5 of 6 as a home favorite, 8 of 9 on Sundays and the last 4 off a win. Iowa has covered 12 of 16 on Sundays and 4 of 5 off a win. In a battle of two evenly matched teams we will take the hot team with home loss revenge. Play on Iowa. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
UFC 272 Free Plays – Sports Betting
Get Kiev’s premium plays for this card and everything the rest of the month right here! Click Here!
Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov -1000
My goodness, -1000? What the heck are we going to do with this? Find a better way with value is the answer. Umar is the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and he is fighting in his corner. What does this mean? It means, grapple grapple submit submit. Umar is a perfect 13-0 with 1 KO, 6 submissions and 6 decisions. Three of his last four fights were won by submission. Brian Kelleher is an ok fighter but I think that he is fading fast. He is 24-12 with six of his twelve losses by submission. Now I expect this fight to be over before the third round but at the same time, I have some respect for Kelleher being that he has twice as many wins than losses. Ten of those wins were by submission. I think we can go both sides on this one.
Umar Nurmagomedov by submission +160 – 1.5 stars
Brian Kelleher by submission +1800 – .2 stars
Mariya Agapova vs Maryna Moroz +155
Are you kidding me? Russia vs the Ukraine here??? I’ll take it. Agapova says shes from Kazakhstan but unlike Borat, she is as Russian as it gets. These two ladies know each other hand have sparred before in practice. Make no mistake, they do not like each other. Now Agapova has the better record at 10-2 to Moroz at 10-3, but Moroz’s strength of schedule is much harder having eight UFC fights on her belt to Agapova’s three. Maryna should be able to control this fight on the ground and she is the more experienced all around being in her prime at 30 years old while Mariya is 24. I also have to think that we have to give her a Ukrainian bump here for motivation.
Moroz +155 – 1 star
March 5th CBB FREE Premium Plays
I released my premium card for free last night and was able to go 2-1; I hope some of y’all were able to cash with me. Today, I’m rolling with 7 premium CBB plays, and I have decided to post 2 for free. Overall, premium plays have gone 168-122-1(57.9%) and have netted my members +54u over the past 6 months. Click here to join along as a premium member, and let’s have ourselves a Saturday!
*CBB(1u): Clemson +3(-110) vs Virginia Tech–1 PM CT
I didn’t think I would be on Clemson at this point in the season, but the Tigers have reeled me in with how they’ve been playing as of late. They enter this game off of 3 straight wins, including an 11 point win over Wake Forest, a team I’m very high on. It would’ve been easy for the Tigers to throw in the towel after a 6 game losing streak, but Clemson is undoubtedly playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. Virginia Tech looks great on paper, but there is a reason the Hokies have lost 11 games this year despite being ranked #28 in KenPom. In their last 3 road games, they squeaked by low-lifes Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by 4 and 5 points, respectively, and also tabbed a 1 point win @ Miami. Even so, this Hokies team lives and dies by the 3-point ball, and a road loss @ Boston College shows how volatile they can be. This line screams Clemson, the public vs sharp money screams Clemson, and we’ll all be screaming Clemson after this one is over. I think the Tigers win outright, but I will always take 3 points when I can get them.
*CBB(1u): Marquette -4.5(-110) vs St John’s–8 PM CT
Marquette was one of the hottest teams in CBB in the month of January, but the Golden Eagles are just 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. Even so, Marquette is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a road loss in this 8 game stretch, so this spot sets up similarly as a good “bounce back” opportunity. A spread at 4.5 this game might as well be 2.5 given that the total is 160.5; in other words, with so many points expected on each side, the spread starts to matter less and less given the pace and variance of this game. Marquette’s defense ranks 30 spots higher in defensive efficiency than St John’s’, and their offenses are about equal. St John’s runs at the 2nd fastest pace in the country and can really stack up points, but they have struggled on the road against the better defenses in the Big East. This is the first time these teams have matched up this season, but this matchup feels similar to the way the Johnnies match up with Creighton. When the Johnnies traveled to Nebraska to take on the Blue Jays, they lost that game 87–64. While I’m not expecting as big of a blowout in this one, I do think Marquette has the defensive ability to hold St John’s at bay and then capitalize on the other end of the floor in their home arena. I was expecting a line around 5.5 or 6, and I still would have leaned Marquette at that price. Getting this at 4.5, I feel good about backing the home team in this primetime spot.
March 5th CBB Premium Plays
*CBB(1.5u): La Salle/Duquesne UNDER 134.5(-110)–1 PM CT
Duquesne is averaging just 58 PPG in conference play and is truly one of the worst offenses in the country. La Salle is allowing just 56 PPG over their past 3 games, showing me they’re more than capable of holding the Dukes at bay today. With that said, though, this is still a road conference game for the Explorers, and they are only scoring 55 PPG over their last 3 games. Coming into this one ranking 267th in offensive efficiency, I’m not expecting much on that end of the floor for La Salle. Neither one of these teams like to push the pace, and given Duquesne is at home, they will likely be able to slow this game down to their liking. This total being anywhere in the 130’s is just downright wrong; I will make this today’s best bet.
*CBB(1u): Butler +8.5(-110) vs Villanova–11 AM CT
Villanova is coming off a high-intensity game against Providence in which the Friars once again took them down to the wire. Following Nova’ first matchup with Providence, they followed up by beating Georgetown by a mere 8 points, an 11.5 point miss from the 19.5 point spread. This is a very similar trap spot, with the only difference being that a) This one is on the road, and b) Butler is far superior to Georgetown. I know Villanova pounded these Bulldogs early in the season, but as of late, Butler lost to Providence by just 1 at home, St John’s by 3, and beat Creighton by 17 as well as Marquette by 6. The Bulldogs play a solid brand of defense that should keep them hanging around in this game, while the Villanova defense has slipped 20 spots in my defensive efficiency ratings over the past few weeks. Given that each team moves at one of the slowest paces in the country, I feel great about grabbing nearly double digits with the home ‘dog in what could be a let down spot for Villanova.
*CBB(1u): Miami/Syracuse OVER 151(-110)–Noon PM CT
This total opened in the mid-150’s before plummeting this morning. I really don’t see any substantial reason for that line movement, so given that I leaned towards the Over at the opening number, I will be on it officially with a few points of added value. These are two of the most efficient offenses in CBB in all facets of the game, while each defense ranks 160th or worse in defensive efficiency. Miami is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, while Syracuse is vulnerable to getting torched in their 2-3 zone against good shooting teams like Miami. This is also Miami’s second straight road game, a spot where defense tends to slip, while Syracuse has nothing to lose at the moment.We saw 175 total points when these teams matched up earlier this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get to that mark again. Over is the play.
*CBB(1u): Creighton PK(-110) vs Seton Hall–1:30 PM CT
Game after game, Creighton continues to be undervalued by the oddsmakers. They beat UCONN outright for the second time this season on Wednesday, and now we’re getting them in a Pick’Em type of spot at home against a very similar quality of team. Seton Hall enters this game off of 4 straight wins, but they played DePaul, Butler, and Georgetown at home, as well as a struggling Xavier team on the road. They won their last game against Georgetown by just 5, and with Bryce Aiken still out, I’m more than willing to play against this overvalued team. This is the Blue Jays’ second straight home game, and with the way they are defending, I’m more than willing to strike while the iron is hot with this Creighton team in a good home spot.
*CBB(1u): Notre Dame-12.5(-110) vs Pittsburgh–1:30 PM CT
Notre Dame inexplicably dropped their last game at Florida State, but this Irish team has been great coming off of losses this season. This team has failed to lose back-to-back games in conference play, and they’ve covered in each of the following bounce-back spots. Notre Dame has all the motivation to come out hot today given a loss to Pittsburgh could possibly drop them out of the tournament. Pittsburgh actually won 3 games a row earlier this month, but they have regressed back to being a bad team over their past 3 games. Coming off a 21 point loss to Miami and 30 point loss to Duke, the 11-19 Panthers very well could have thrown in the towel on this season. In any case, Notre Dame has been good in this role this season, and I think they mop the floor with Pitt this afternoon.
*CBB(1u): Clemson +3(-110) vs Virginia Tech–1 PM CT
I never thought I would be on Clemson at this point in the season, but the Tigers have reeled me in with how they’ve been playing as of late. They enter this game off of 3 straight wins, including an 11 point win over Wake Forest, a team I’m very high on. It would’ve been easy for the Tigers to throw in the towel after a 6 game losing streak, but Clemson is undoubtedly playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. Virginia Tech looks great on paper, but there is a reason the Hokies have lost 11 games this year despite being ranked #28 in KenPom. In their last 3 road games, they squeaked by low-lifes Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by 4 and 5 points, respectively, and also tabbed a 1 point win @ Miami. Even so, this Hokies team lives and dies by the 3-point ball, and a road loss @ Boston College shows how volatile they can be. This line screams Clemson, the public vs sharp money screams Clemson, and we’ll all be screaming Clemson after this one is over. I think the Tigers win outright, but I will always take 3 points when I can get them.
*CBB(1u): Marquette -4.5(-110) vs St John’s–8 PM CT
Marquette was one of the hottest teams in CBB in the month of January, but the Golden Eagles are just 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. Even so, Marquette is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a road loss in this 8 game stretch, so this spot sets up similarly as a good “bounce back” opportunity. A spread at 4.5 this game might as well be 2.5 given that the total is 160.5; in other words, with so many points expected on each side, the spread starts to matter less and less given the pace and variance of this game. Marquette’s defense ranks 30 spots higher in defensive efficiency than St John’s’, and their offenses are about equal. St John’s runs at the 2nd fastest pace in the country and can really stack up points, but they have struggled on the road against the better defenses in the Big East. This is the first time these teams have matched up this season, but this matchup feels similar to the way the Johnnies match up with Creighton. When the Johnnies traveled to Nebraska to take on the Blue Jays, they lost that game 87–64. While I’m not expecting as big of a blowout in this one, I do think Marquette has the defensive ability to hold St John’s at bay and then capitalize on the other end of the floor in their home arena. I was expecting a line around 5.5 or 6, and I still would have leaned Marquette at that price. Getting this at 4.5, I feel good about backing the home team in this primetime spot.
College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting
Oklahoma vs Kansas State -2.5 O/U 134
I like this line here because you have two teams going in different directions. Oklahoma is toast and they know it. They can’t make the big dance with a win and Kansas State has a chance to get to .500 here on senior night. These two teams played earlier in the season and Kansas State made it a very close game with a two point loss. Since that game, Oklahoma’s all play percentage as went drastically down and Kansas State’s has went up. Oklahoma ranks 7th in offensive efficiency in conference play while Kansas State ranks 5th. Another bad sign for the Sooners is that their turnovers on offense are dead last in the Big 12 at 23.1% of possessions while Kansas State is 1st at 16.8% of possessions in conference play. Now both teams have some injuries. Starting Point guard Markquis Nowell will miss this game for Kansas State. He actually missed their last game vs Texas Tech and the team only lost by 5 points. Oklahoma is without Elijah Harkless who also plays a key roll for his team. Kansas State is trying to get to .500 to finish the season here on senior night. Gonna grab the Cats here.
Kansas State -2.5 – 3 stars
Parlay: Notre Dame -800, Kansas -500, and New Mexico State -400 – 2 stars – I do not see any of these home teams losing in their season finally/Senior nights.
Free NBA Pick from FarleyBets: Magic at Grizzlies – March 5, 2022
Time for a free NBA pick for your Saturday! What a great day to be alive; CBB, NBA, UFC, forgetaboutittttt! Enjoy your day and let’s add to your bankroll!
We’re STILL (yup, still) hitting over 57% in NBA bets and we’re +78 units on the season. Hit this link to get my plays every morning sent directly to your inbox!
Grizzlies Team Total over 123.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Two short nights ago, the surging Grizzlies took on the Celtics, in Boston, and were introduced to one of the more viable and legitimate defenses they’ve seen in a long time. Boston stuffed the Grizzlies at the rim over and over again, forcing Memphis into uncomfortable perimeter shots. While the Grizzlies are a great all-around team and one of the most productive offenses in the NBA, they’re not particularly gifted beyond the arc. After that humbling loss, superstar Ja Morant and the Western Conference’s 3rd best team heads back home to face the Orlando Magic. The Magic are fresh off a surprising win, on the road, at Toronto. The Raptors have their own slate of problems right now, but the Magic have a formidable offense with skilled, developing shooters. What the Magic rarely bring to the table? Formidable defense. Before we get into more intangibles and psychology, let’s look at some data.
- Grizzlies’ season offensive efficiency rating: 5th
- Magic season defensive efficiency rating: 20th
- Pace: Orlando, 10th; Grizzlies, 8th
- Grizzlies’ fast break points & points in the paint: 1st
- Grizzlies points per game: 113.8 (3rd)
- Magic points allowed per game: 111.7 (20th)
This is as prime a redemption spot as there is in the association. For what it’s worth, the Magic have improved somewhat on the defensive end. Over the last 15 games, they’re 13th in defensive efficiency. Not bad. But they’re pace (2nd the last 15 games) paired with their lack of discipline will be a problem tonight. The Grizzlies are fantastic at forcing turnovers (13.4 forced per game, good for 8th overall) and even better at capitalizing on them. I mean, they were able to force turnovers against the CELTICS, who have been playing lights-out-basketball for a good month+ now. Get ready, Orlando.
The Magic, meanwhile, have to pick themselves up and travel across Canada’s border down to Memphis in less than 24 hours for this contest. I think it’s reasonable to assume that, as human beings, their disposition will show as rather docile tonight. Wendall Carter Jr., Orlando’s center, has been a key piece for them in recent weeks. He’s questionable tonight and did not play against the Raptors Friday; if he doesn’t go, that’s even more reason to believe that Memphis will get to the front court early and often. Few NBA offenses are explosive and readily aggressive as what the Grizzlies bring game-to-game; expect that to show in all 48 minutes Saturday night.
Memphis dropped 135 on the Magic in their first battle. Nine of the last twelve Grizzlies games have gone over. Tonight they’ll meet (very) little resistance against a tired, traveled Orlando roster. Take the Grizzlies to soar over their team total and don’t look back.
PS- The Grizzlies are one of the best 1Q teams in the association. Their first quarter line is high (-5), but I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits.
Premiums for a HUGE SATURDAY, LFG!
What’s up people! Amped for this Saturday! We have big time conference games in college basketball, a nice NBA slate with plenty of value, and a big-time UFC card that your boy will DEFINITELY be ordering while I scarf down various snacks that are probably killing my body. YOLO am I right?
Onto the picks!
NBA Picks:
- Mavericks -7.5, 1 unit
- Dallas is feeling themselves right now, they’re at home, and the Kings just got a rare victory and they probably think they’re pretty good on defense now. What a joke. Doncic and the Mavs smash Sacramento here.
- Lean, Heat
- Great spot for the Heat against a Philly team that’s only seen good results lately. If Jimmy plays, I love Miami here.
- Grizzlies TT over 123.5, 1.5 units
- Inflated for a reason, how do you think Orlando’s defense will feel after Memphis’ faced Boston 2 nights ago (and still dropped 107 on them, by the way)? I expect the Grizzlies to go OFF at home. Their line at -15.5 is a little much, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they covered that either.
- Timberwolves -13, 1 unit
- Another ugly line but I give the Blazers virtually no chance to win this game without Nurkic. KAT is playing phenomenal basketball and Anthony Edwards might return for this one. If Portland covers, it’s only because Anfernee Simons does something other-wordly. Expect the Wolves to keep rollin’.
- Warriors -5.5, 3 units
- Time to fade the Lakers and fade them hard. This team has given up, in more ways than one, following the lead of LeBron and his off-the-court words and actions. The Warriors, on the other hand, are looking to get-right, Klay should be back, and this is a perfect chance for them to flex on both sides of the court. A rare 3 unit play for me – but I’m confident in this one. PSA: Anything can happen, the Lakers can play the perfect game and win at home. But the probabilities? I have it as considerably high that Golden State covers this number. My number is -9.
CBB Picks:
- Alabama +4, 1 unit
- UVA -4, 1 unit
- Pittsburgh +12.5, 1 unit
- Weber State -5.5, 1 unit
- North Carolina +12.5, 2 units
- A nod here to BohBoh Bets, who brought this to my attention – this line is way inflated because it’s Mike K’s last game at Duke. North Carolina should bring the heat and make this fun – they’re no slouches this year, either.
UFC 272 Picks:
- Devonte Smith (-150), 1.5 units
- Nurmagoedov wins inside distance (-105), 2 units
- Maryna Moroz (Ukrainian, enough said, +155), 1 unit
- Greg Hardy (+165), 1 unit
- Masvidal by KO (+300), sprinkle
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Early Grabs (3-star pick!)
Grabbing these early lines (explanations coming tomorrow):
- Golden State -5.5 for 3 units
- Grizzlies up to -13 for 1.5 units
Rob Vinciletti: Saturday College Hoops Court Crushers up
Saturday card led By our Last Home Game Play Of The Year 5-1 Last 6 years an Executive Level TIER 1 and our Conference Tournament Plays. We also have Perfect System Plays in NBA and NHL and Afternoon Soccer. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Nicholls St at 4:30 eastern. The Colonels are first in the South land Conference and have 12 point road loss revenge on New Orleans here today. The last 2 here on their home court against the Privateers were both Blowout wins by 20= points. They are ranked 23rd in the nation scoring and have put up 80 or more in each of their last 3 home games. New Orleans has lost 18 of 19 as a road dog and had to rally from 10 down at the half to win their last home game. With the winning team 8-1 in the series. We will back Nicholls St to serve up revenge. On Saturday a huge card is up and we have Our Last Home Game Play of the Year which has hit 5 of the last 6 seasons, along with an Executive Level Tier 1 and our Conference Tournament System plays. We also have early Soccer and Perfect database systems in the NBA and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with Nicholls St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Saturday Premier League Plays!
The FA cup DESTROYED me on Wednesday, going 0-4. WHU and LVP just did not show up for me in the second half. However, we are back in the Premier League tomorrow and there is a TON of close line value plays.
Current Soccer record: 7-12 -2.72 Units
Leeds United: Draw-1 Unit (+310), Leeds ML-1 Unit (+315), and Under -3 1 Unit (+109)
As we know February was not Leeds month, giving up an astounding 20 goals going 0-1-4. This past week a much needed manager change took place. Leeds United brings in American Jesse Marsch to take over the club and naturally Ted Lasso vibes in the media ensue. With this new month and new manager, could this be the potential reset LU needed to spark some interest back in their matches. Currently LC is favored at home -122, that line seems relatively low considering they are matched up against a club that has been spiraling down. Great value in this match to play Leeds to finally show up keep it close and draw or win outright. Only way Leeds stays in this game is if they do not let the score get out of hand…. Leading for an Under 3…. Match prediction 1-1 draw.
My other plays:
Chelsea -1 (-118) 1 Unit
South Hampton ML +210 1 Unit
Wolves ML +140 1 Unit
Norwich ML +200 1 Unit
New castle ML +185 1 Unit
