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Valspar Championship – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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What a Sunday Monday finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Cam Smith at 35-1 wins it shooting a 66 on the final round to narrowly edge out Anirban Lahiri. With that victory, Cam Smith took home the $3.6 million dollar prize in addition to a three year exemption to the majors and a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour. That was his second win of the year as he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions back in January.

Betting wise we struggled last week as none of our outrights or top 20 hit but, we did manage to cash on Sergio Top 40. Over the past six weeks we are still up +24.52 Units.

The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree lined fairways which is something you don’t see to often in the Sunshine state. We still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. This weeks event will obviously take a backseat to March Madness starting. Let’s get into this weeks event and find some winners.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: March 17th, 2022- March 20th, 2022
  • Location: Palm Harbor, Florida, United States
  • Course:  Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course
  • Course Type: Carolina-type
  • Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,340 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
  • Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed
  • Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
  • Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass with Ryegrass 3″
  • Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft. (Average)
  • Purse: $7,800,000 / Winner $1.404 Million
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Bunkers: 74
  • Water Hazards: 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. ft.
  • Scoring Average:
    • 2021: 70.96 (-0.04), Rank 20 of 51
    • 2019: 71.98 (+0.98), Rank 6 of 49
    • 2018: 71.97 (+0.97), Rank 6 of 51
  • Historic Cut Lines:
    • 2021: -1
    • 2019: +1
    • 2018: +3

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Larry Packard (1971)
  • Renovations: Wadsworth Golf Construction Company (2005)
  • Comparable Courses:
    • TPC Sawgrass – THE PLAYERS (Results)
    • Harbour Town – RBC Heritage (Results)
    • TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship (Results)

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, March 17th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, March 17th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, March 19th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, March 20th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Sunny 66 F, 7 mp/h W, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 7 mp/h S, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 70 F, 11 mp/h WSW, 78% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 66 F, 10 mp/h N, 70% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned last year in April where Sam Burns captured his first win on the PGA Tour.

Innisbrook Resort has four courses; Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.

The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was the part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.

This is one of the newer events on Tour making it’s debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that stretch of time, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled holding down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and have been the presenting sponsor since then.

Multiple players have won this event twice including K.J. Choi (2002,2006), Retief Goosen (2003,2009), and most recently Paul Casey (2018,2019). Vijay Singh holds the course record shooting an 18 under par when he won the event back in 2004.

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only six holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were Hole No. 2 and Hole No. 12.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and treelined fairways. Most tee shots can very intimidating shot strokes driving accuracy is going to be something to look at this week. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Last year we saw six of the top twelve guys lose strokes off the tee so while it’s important, it’s not necessarily the key path to victory. Sam Burns key to victory last year was through his approach play and putting. This course is built for ball strikers and when looking at the field some popular plays are going to be Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann etc. They all have a pretty good course history as well. One player to watch out for is Justin Thomas. If he can figure out his putting stroke, he should run away with this event, but that’s a massive if.

There’s five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 15 that played just 0.047 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 13 that played 0.2 strokes under past in 2021.

The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.

The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is plays 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.

Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.

Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, the tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players some how hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.

Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.

Image

To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.

For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
  • Par 5 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
  • Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
  • Scrambling

 

The Field/ Odds:

No Rahm this week so Justin Thomas leads the field in terms of odds. He’s currently around 11-1 on most books followed by Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa both listed at 12-1. It’s a pretty top heavy field with Dustin Johnson rounding out the group of players listed 20-1 or under. None of these guys have won this event before with the best finish going to Viktor Hovland who finished 3rd at Innisbrook last year. While this event does usually favor elite ball-strikers, it’ll be interesting to see if any of them can get hot putting which they all usually struggle with. If any of them do have a solid week on the green they should run away with this event. I didn’t play any of the favorites this week but if you’re looking to take one I would pick Viktor Hovland.

Previous winners in the field include Sam Burns (2021), Paul Casey (2019,2018), Adam Hadwin (2017), Charles Schwartzel (2016), Kevin Streelman (2013), Luke Donald (2012), and Gary Woodland (2011).

To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.

To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
    • Price: 100-1
  • 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Price: N/A
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
    • Price: 25-1
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
    • Price: 25-1
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
    • Price: 125-1

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Abraham Ancer (+3400) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.24 to win 8.16 Units
  • Jason Kokrak (+3600) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
  • Adam Hadwin (+6000) – Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
  • Mito Pereira (+12000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.07 to win 8.40 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Russell Knox (+275) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.50 to win 1.38 Units

Knox is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour ranking 10th. He’s also a great iron player ranking 8th in Strokes Gained approach. Knox should be able to set himself up nicely off the tee and use his irons to his advantage this week. His putting is always a concern but he has gained strokes putting in two of his last four tournaments. Hopefully the flat stick comes to play this week.

  • Kevin Kisner (+300) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.50 to win 1.50 Units

Just like Knox, Kisner is one of the most accurate players off the tee. He’s struggled with this approach game this year but finished still managed to finish 4th last week despite losing strokes on his approach game. Kisner is one of the best putters on Tour and last year we saw Sam Burns putting propel him to a victory here at Innisbrook. I’m not sure Kisner can win this thing but I do like him to finish close to the top of the leaderboard especially given his form.

Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Bubba Watson (+115) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

Bubba’s currently -125 on DraftKings so this is a value bet. He’s finished 4th and 13th here in his last two appearances at Innisbrook. Compared to the field since 2016, he ranks 7th in SG- ATG, 7th in SG- T2G, and 5th in SG-OTT. His course history is impeccable here so given the plus money at a Top 40 finish, I’ll take that everyday.

  • Alex Noren (+115) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

Just like Bubba, Noren is currently -125 on DraftKings for a Top 40 finish. While he does struggle off the tee, he ranks 39th in strokes gained approach and 57th in strokes gained putting, two crucial stats. He’s finished inside the Top 40 in four of his past five tournaments and finished 21st last year in this event.

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 4.00 Units 

SG Data at the Valspar Championship since 2016: Source

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Early Premiums, 3.16

By
Chris R. Farley
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Will provide more detailed write-ups tomorrow – here’s some plays I hit already for Wednesday.

  • Nuggets -5.5, 2 units 
    • Denver’s momentum + this line is wrong
  • Knicks -10, 1 unit 
    • Blazers are the worst team in the NBA, Knicks need to win
  • Lakers/T-Wolves over 237, 1.5 units

    • Good luck to LAL stopping this offense.
  • T-Wolves TT over 223, 2 units
  • Bucks/Kings over 240, 1.5 units
    • Somehow the Kings keep finding offense- The Bucks offense is humming

NCAA Tournament–South Region Preview(Part 1/3)

By
Michael Fordham
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Over the next day, I will be releasing previews of the 8 Opening Round games in the South Region of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Let’s start with the 2 games taking place on Thursday!

Michigan(-2.5) vs Colorado State O/U 139.5–Thursday 11:15 AM CT

Michigan had a turbulent final month of their season, alternating wins and losses over their final 9 games. However, by playing in the toughest conference in the country, the Wolverines are a battle-tested bunch that has had to play the 6th hardest schedule in the country. Colorado State is very similarly rated metrics wise to Michigan, although the Rams are actually slightly more efficient in FG%, 3PT%, FT%, and Assist-Turnover ratio. The one area where the Wolverines hold a sizable advantage is in the rebounding department; Michigan ranks 44th in defensive rebounding %, while the Rams rank in the bottom 30 in offensive rebounding %. This means the Rams can’t afford an off-day in the shooting department as second-chance points are likely to be at a premium for them. Michigan is the much bigger(and taller) team, meaning the Wolverines should have their way in the paint. One big advantage the Rams have is that this team ranks 18th in continuity, meaning their lineup has logged a ton of minutes together; this is a key area that can’t be overlooked at this point in the year. In that same category, Michigan ranks just 246th, and their 296th experience ranking won’t help either. All in all, this is a tough game for me to give a strong opinion on given Michigan’s volatility towards the end of the season. I will add that neither team likes to push the pace, so given what we know about teams struggling to find a rhythm in their first game of the Tournament, perhaps a 1st Half Under is worth a look. If I had to play a side, I’d lean towards Colorado State given their continuity and slightly better offensive metrics. Lean 1H UNDER; Slight Lean Colorado State +2.5.

Tennessee(-17) vs Longwood–1:45 PM CT

Tennessee is on everyone’s radar after running the table in the SEC Tournament and winning 12 of their final 13 games. This Vols team plays an elite brand of defense(#3 in KenPom), but this is also a team that shoots just 43% from the floor and can go into long droughts on that end of the floor. If you’ve followed me, you know I am not a believer in this Tennessee team. As Chris Fillicia(friend of the OddsBreakers) pointed out yesterday, Rick Barnes is just 1-11-1 ATS in his last 13 tournament games. Longwood shoots the 3-ball at the 19th best rate in the country, and despite being one of the smallest teams in the country, they rank in the Top 55 in both offensive and defensive rebounding %. Like many of these smaller conference teams, though, the Lancers played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Their only 2 “big” non-conference games came against Iowa(33 point loss) and Georgetown(8 point loss), so it’s hard to expect them to to step up in competition against what’s still a very good Tennessee team. The Vols are far superior in the interior, so Longwood’s only real shot to hang in this game is to get hot from beyond the arc. While I’m not a believer in Tennessee, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning this game comfortably. No opinion at this point. 

NCAAB Tournament – East Quadrant Play-In Game for tonight, March 15th

By
Nick Hub
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Sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

Indiana vs Wyoming (Hoosiers favored by 4, 132.5 total)

Indiana comes in 4-0 at neutral sites and 14-8 as favorite while Wyoming 8-5 as a dog and 7-2 as away dog.  These are 2 very tall teams as Indiana ranks 44th in average team height and Wyoming is 9th.  Indiana depth is a big advantage, especially if Wyoming’s star, Maldonado, gets into foul trouble.  Only 20.9% of the Cowboys minutes come from the bench, ranking 342nd in the nation.  Wyoming is a more balanced offense where as Indiana likes to get it inside the arc more, scoring 55.7% of their points as a 2-point shot which will neutralize the strength of the Cowboys defense as they are 32nd in defending from deep but the Hoosiers shoot just 31.8% of their shots from beyond the arc.   At the other end, Wyoming shoot well inside the arc and not so well from deep but the Hoosiers are 7th in the nation at defending the 2 point shot.  Neither team is good at second chance points or turning the ball over, so I will lean towards the under and Indiana to get Wyoming in foul trouble and cover this spread.

Sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

March 15th CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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In addition to this free play, I also have 1 NBA play reserved for my premium members. Click here to become a premium member and receive all of my best NCAA Tournament plays. Stay tuned for a written preview of the South Region coming tonight/tomorrow morning. 

*CBB(1u): Texas Southern -3.5(-110) vs A&M Corpus Christi–5:40 PM CT

Texas Southern has multiple advantages under their belt entering this matchup. While the Tigers play in a very weak conference, this team played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, which included road matchups with Oregon, St Mary’s, BYU, and Florida(15 point win). A&M Corpus, on the other hand, played THE easiest schedule out of all 358 teams in the country. In addition, this is a very experienced Texas Southern team. Coach Johnny Jones is in his 20th season as a D1 Head Coach, and he has the 3rd most experienced roster in the country. On the contrary, Islanders HC Steve Lutz is a 1st year HC. Beyond that, I think the physicality edge also goes to the Tigers, who rank 19th in offensive-rebound rate and block 5 shots/game. Comparatively, the Islanders block just 1.7 shots/game and rank just 230th in defensive-rebound rate. There are certainly drawbacks to this TSU team, particularly in some of their shooting metrics as well as their horrendous 0.7 assist-turnover ratio. However, in this environment, A&M Corpus might only shoot marginally better and still get worked in all of the aforementioned areas. TSU has better prepared themselves to play in this type of environment, and I think they end up pulling away in this one. 

March 15th NBA Premium Play

By
Michael Fordham
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*NBA(1u): Suns 1H -3(-110) @ Pelicans–7 PM CT

The Pelicans stumble into this matchup having lost 4 out of their last 5, with the average margin of those losses at 14.3 PPG. Brandon Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but they could welcome back CJ McCollum tonight after he has spent nearly a week in the health/safety protocols. With this being his first game back, however, I don’t envision him jumping right back into peak form, and that’s especially true early in this game. Phoenix is one of the most trustworthy teams in the league, and they enter this game off of a 29 point win vs the Lakers. Monty Williams has adjusted his rotation nicely to Chris Paul’s absence. If the Suns can go on the road and beat Miami by 13 like they did last week, then they can certainly take care of business in this spot. I like Phoenix most in the 1H given I want to play against McCollum while he’s shaking off the rust early in this game.

The 2022 NCAA Tournament West Quadrant Part 1 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Thursday:

Memphis vs Boise State +2.5 O/U 133.5

Let’s start out by saying that Memphis was injured for half the season in the middle from December to Late January, but they are now healthy and ready to try and make in run.  Now Memphis is a favorite here and I really do not like them in this spot.  The Tigers only ranks 342 away from home while Boise ranks a nice 15th.  In saying that, Memphis is very sloppy with the ball ranking 252nd in turnovers and Boise should be able to force turnovers.  I also do not like that Memphis is a bad FT shooting team at 69.2%.  Not good for favorites.  The Broncos on the other hand are a well put together team that likes to fight.  They aren’t great at anything but they are certainly not bad at anything minus shooting FTs themselves.  Memphis has more talent but I’ll take Leon Rice over Penny Hardaway any day of the week!

Play Boise State but wait for 3

Georgia State vs Gonzaga -23 O/U 148

  • Georgia state’s bench was quite unhealthy throughout the season but they put it together to make it in down the stretch.   Too bad they got punushed here having to face the fighting Mark Fews.
  • No matter how good the defense they do play, they won’t be able to stop the Zags.  The Panthers will play at the pace given to them, and the Zags are the 3rd fastest playing team in the nation.   Georgia State also seems to play better when playing fast.
  • I think that Gonzaga will get into the 90s here and I also think that you will get at least 60 from Georgia State.   The panthers actually play faster than their numbers show ranking 106th in average possession length in a slow playing conference.

Over 148 – 2.5 stars

Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday Tournament Power System Play +NIT Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Tuesday card has a 5* N.I.T Tournament Power System along with an NHL Platinum Supreme and NBA. NCAAB Comp Play below
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Texas Southern at 6:40 eastern. The Tigers are back in the Play in for a 2nd straight year. Last year they advanced before bowing out to Michigan. Now they take on a Texas A@M Corpus Christi team off a dog win to take the Southland Conference. Texas Southern has covered the last 4 when favored and 13 of 16 vs .600 or better opponents as well as 11 of 12 on neutral courts. Look for Texas St to advance. On Tuesday we have a Powerful NIT Tournament Card in hoops with a Top play. There is also a Big NHL Platinum Supreme Move and another NBA System Side. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we get the tournaments started fast. For the comp play. Go with Texas St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

The 2022 NCAA Tournament Opening plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Tuesday (play in games)

Texas A&M CC vs Texas Southern -3.5 O/U 136

Texas A&M CC does very well away from home ranking 11h in the nation on Haslametrics to Sothern’s 211th.  Let’s face it, both teams are bad at shooting but both teams play pretty fast with Corpus Christi ranking 29th in average possession length and Texas Southern ranking 148th.  The Islanders haven’t scored below 65 points since February 24th and before that was January 20th.  They average 73.8 points per game while the Tigers average 69.2.   Both teams are sloppy and turn the ball over often.  My number is Texas Southern -5 and my total is 142 so I will play the over.

Over 136 – 2 stars

Indiana vs Wyoming +4 O/U 132

Indiana made a very nice run in the Big 10 tournament, but I will say that the Big 10 tournament really sucked this year and most of the teams laid eggs.  Both teams rank in the low 200s away from home.  Indiana will have a 2 point home court advantage in Dayton being so close to home.  Indiana should dominate this game inside with their size and Trace Jackson-Davis being the stud that he is.  Indiana -4.5 is my number and the total is about right.

Lean Indiana -4

Thursday

Michigan vs Colorado State +2.5 O/U 139

Well, Michigan got in and that’s all that matters because it’s all about the line here.  The Wolverine’s should have a home field advantage here of -1 or so.  Michigan has not been great away from home ranking 253rd to Colorado State at 64th.  Let’s face it, the big 10 is a much harder conference than the Mountain west and we have to factor that in.   Michigan has been pretty inconsistent this year but Colorado State hasn’t done great without their crowd.   Both teams should be able to score down low as both defenses are terrible in near proximity but Michigan is the taller teams and should do better.  I have Michigan -3 here and I might play them if line gets better.

Lean Michigan -2.5

South Dakota State vs Providence -2 O/U 148.5

This line is just disrespectful to me.  Providence is a very solid big East team who has also been lucky, but they are still the second best in the Big East and should be able to dominate the Jackrabbits inside.  The Friars have had a much harder schedule than the Jackrabbits and there is no two ways about it.  Now South Dakota State is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation.   If Providence falls asleep and doesn’t work on the high ball screens on defense, they could get crushed.  You have to think that Ed Cooley knows that?  It would be a massive coaching blunder if he doesn’t.  If it were me coaching, I would allow the ball to go inside much more than allowing them open looks at the perimeter.  Providence -3.5 O/U 152 is my number which I think is very fair to South Dakota State playing in such an easy conference.  Some of their earlier losses to Idaho and Missouri State are also telling to me.  Fade the public perception here.

Providence -2 – 2 stars

 

NCAA Tournament Futures

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

I don’t call myself an expert in college basketball, certainly not this year, and that’s what’s helped me be so successful in the NBA – a complete focus on the association following the NFL season. That said, below is a clear value play and some advice on how to approach CBB the next few weeks. 

  • In all likelihood, a moneyline rollover on Gonzaga is much more likely to yield you more income than betting on them at a futures price of +300 to win it all. The value at +300 just isn’t enough, avoid futures like that. I do think the Zags are the deserving favorite.
  • Consider Tennessee at +1400: Something is gelling right now for the Volunteers and that kind of momentum can play real dividends in the tournament. And besides Arizona, which would be a big test for Tennessee, their competition in the South bracket isn’t very impressive. Michigan, Villanova, and Loyola-Chicago aren’t as impressive this year. I think it’s worth a sprinkle or 1 unit shot.
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