On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For we have special guest Dave Cokin, one of the best sports gamblers in the world to help breakdown Tuesday March 8th’s NHL slate.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight Dave’s career and also his advice for all gamblers.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
Dave’s introduction to sports betting
How the industry has changed since he begun
Where he sees the industry going
Dave’s ability to predict line movement
Betting Strategies
Golf Betting
You can follow Dave Cokin on Twitter @davecokin and find him on Wager Talk.
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
It’s the final 7 days of action before Selection Sunday. Limited amount of games on a Monday slate, but I’ve got 2 picks today I am giving out for free. We are on a 40-29-3 Run the last two weeks with a nice 22 unit profit. You can get all my premium plays available here at Theoddsbreakers.com
The first game I am looking at is the CAA semifinal match-up between UNC- Wilmington and College of Charleston. Clash of styles here as Charleston plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the country while UNCW will look to try and slow the game down a bit. UNCW won the first two meetings by slim margins by controlling two things. Getting to the free throw line and turnovers. They forced 35 turnovers in the two games and got the the line 56 times.
Both these teams run guard heavy lineups, but UNCW has a size advantage which helped them get to the line in the first two meetings. Charleston also ranks 317th in the country in fouls which should help drive UNCW to the line again. Another key stat is that even though Charleston will push pace and try and create turnovers UNCW is nearly flawless as they rate 8th in the country in allowing quick points off steals. I like UNCW to complete the sweep of the season series and advance to the finals of the CAA.
UNCW ML 1 Unit, UNCW +2 1 Unit
In my second match-up I am looking to the battle of South Dakota in Sioux Falls as The South Dakota Coyotes take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for a spot in The Summit League Tournament Finals.
South Dakota State swept the first two meetings by scores of 84-65 at home and 89-79 on the road. This is another clash of styles as South Dakota State will look to get out and run, while South Dakota will hope to turn this into a slower paced battle. The problem for the Coyotes is that SDSU is the 14th most efficient offense in all of college basketball while they rank in the bottom third of teams in defensive efficiency. The Jackrabbits shot 56.6% in game 1 including 55.6% from 3 and shot 16 Free throws. In game 2 they were 60% from the field and 44% from 3, and got to the line 30 times.
I am looking at the team total for South Dakota State here. They have won 19 straight games and The total currently sits at 80.5. In Summit League play South Dakota State has only been held under that total 4 times. Twice they landed on 80 and once at 79. The other was a 70 point effort against North Dakota where they were held to 30% shooting in the first half. They bounced back to score 40 in the second half and win the game. In all four of those games they shot over 5% lower than they’re season average 6th best in the country FG% of 49.97. They are also number 1 in the country by the way from 3 pt range at 42.01%. In the first match-up against South Dakota the Jackrabbits put up 84, and called off the hounds scoring only 4 points in the last 5 minutes. Barring some sort of epic shooting collapse tonight I see the Jackrabbits having no issue going over the total against the Coyotes.
I’m on the Jackrabbits Team Total Over 80.5 2.5 Units
The NBA Comp play is on The NY. Knicks plus the 3-4 points at 10:30 eastern. NY fits the solid system below that plays on road dogs of less than 8 off a road dog win vs an opponent off a road dog loss with a total that is 220 or higher. These teams are 8-0 to the spread the last few seasons. NY upset the Clippers last night by over 20 points, finally closing out a game in the 4th quarter without blowing a lead. Now they take that momentum into Sacramento to take on a Kings team that may bounce off a terrible 1 point loss to Dallas blowing a 14 point lead. The Kings are 29th in overall defense compared to the NY 8th ranked defense. The Knicks have covered 12 of 16 with no rest and should be competitive here. Play on NY. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU 5-3
ATS 8-0
Mar 01, 2017 recap Wed 2016 Nuggets Bucks away 110-98 0&1 3.0 223.5 12 15.0 -15.5 -0.25 -15.25 W W U
Oct 30, 2018 recap Tue 2018 Kings Magic away 107-99 0&2 4.5 220.5 8 12.5 -14.5 -1.0 -13.5 W W U
Nov 02, 2018 recap Fri 2018 Thunder Wizards away 134-111 0&2 2.5 234.0 23 25.5 11.0 18.25 -7.25 W W O
Aug 03, 2020 recap Mon 2019 Spurs Seventysixers away 130-132 0&1 7.0 229.0 -2 5.0 33.0 19.0 14.0 L W O
Jan 01, 2021 recap Fri 2020 Suns Nuggets away 106-103 0&2 3.5 220.5 3 6.5 -11.5 -2.5 -9.0 W W U
Jan 06, 2021 recap Wed 2020 Bulls Kings away 124-128 0&1 7.0 228.0 -4 3.0 24.0 13.5 10.5 L W O
Mar 22, 2021 recap Mon 2020 Thunder Timberwolves away 112-103 0&2 5.0 230.5 9 14.0 -15.5 -0.75 -14.75 W W U
May 13, 2021 recap Thu 2020 Trailblazers Suns away 117-118 0&1 2.0 237.0 -1 1.0 -2.0 -0.5 -1.5 L W U
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 28: RJ Barrett #9 of the New York Knicks looks on against the Washington Wizards during the first half at Capital One Arena on December 28, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
*NBA(1u): Knicks +3.5(-110) @ Kings–9:30 PM CT
You might be surprised to see me on the Knicks given my sentiment on them in recent weeks, but they have shown “buy” signs over the last 2 games. They led by double-digits at Phoenix in the 2nd Half before Julius Randle got ejected and the Suns mustered together a 4th quarter comeback, but they responded last night with a 23 point win against the Clippers. That does mean this is the second game of a back-to-back, but given that 4 of their 5 starters played less than 30 minutes and RJ Barrett played a mere 32 minutes, I worry less about fatigue in this spot. However bad things get for the Knicks, I don’t think they’ll ever be as bad as the Kings. Sacramento was somewhat feisty with Tyrese Halliburton and Buddy Hield, but with those guys shipped off, this team lacks fire. This is the first game back home for Sacramento after a 5 game road trip; with just 1 day of rest back home, this sets up in principle as a “play against” spot for them. The Kings are obviously abysmal defensively, but contrary to popular belief, they are well below average offensively as well. Julius Randle is the perfect guy to match up with Domantas Sabonis as well. Call me crazy, but I think the Knicks keep things rolling tonight and beat the dead-beat Kings outright. Of course, I’ll take 3.5 points anytime I can get them.
Feels like we’re back on track after a real nice Sunday – the Nets should have covered, but we’ll take a 3-1 finish. Onto the next!
NBA Picks:
Hawks/Pistons over 227.5, 1 unit
The Hawks are starting to show consistency on offense, ranked as top 10 or top 5 over the last 5-15 games. I’m still not impressed by what they offer on defense, and they’re traveling to Detroit against a Pistons team that’s gaining some real confidence. Detroit has the shooters to find success on offense and Atlanta hasn’t been very successful shutting down any team’s mid-range opportunities. Points should be plentiful- I’d take it up to 230.
Lean, 76ers -7
Sixers Team Total over 118.5, 1.5 units
If this number drops to -6, I may play it. Chicago has been exposed recently, with very little to offer on defense and overly reliant on unsustainable efficiency on offense. Harden is back and Philly, at home, should be able to do what they’ve done to most teams recently – lock down and bolt ahead by a few scores in the 4th QTR. Let’s see if this number drops, but for now I’m happy to play on their TT over. The Sixers are routinely exposing bad defenses when they’re led by James Harden, averaging 126.5 points in that 4-game span.
Timberwolves 1H -8, 1.5 units and
Timberwolves -15, 1.5 units
There’s very little reason to believe the Timberwolves won’t run over the Blazers here. Anthony Edwards should return for Minnesota, while Nurkic, Simons, Winslow, Little, and Bledsoe are ALL out for Portland. I can’t even express how open their front court should be. Miracles happen, but this game has blowout written all over it. Taking the first half too, in case Minnesota is up by SO much that they let loose in the 2nd. I wouldn’t go over -16 here, I have it at -18.
CBB Picks:
St. Mary’s -5, 1 unit
Can’t imagine St. Mary’s not putting in full effort and covering this line – they’re not afraid of Gonzaga and they want a conference title, but they have to win to get there.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
We only have 5 games going tonight in the NHL with some decent matchups. The slate is headlined by the “Battle of Alberta” where the Oilers will take on the Flames. The Oilers are battling for a playoff position while the Flames look to expand their lead on the rest of the Pacific. I’ll breakdown the game between the Panthers and Sabres, and give out a few more plays at the end of the article.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Florida’s last 11 games.
Florida are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo’s last 13 games.
Buffalo are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games at home.
Previous Matchups:
Dec 21, 2021: Buffalo Sabres (4) @ Florida Panthers (7)
BUF +250, FLA -300, O/U 6.0
Preview:
Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but have struggled a bit as of late. They’ve won their last two games, knocking off Ottawa and Detroit. However, prior to that, they lost three straight at home which is very uncharacteristic of this team. The Panthers, along with Colorado, are the two best teams at home so to see them drop three in a row at FLA Live Arena was very shocking. They’ll take on the Sabres tonight before heading to Pittsburgh tomorrow to take on the Penguins.
The Panthers rank 1st in Goals For per game averaging 4.09. They’re led by Jonathan Huberdeau who has 76 points in 55 games. He’s currently three points behind McDavid and Draisaitl who lead the league. In Florida’s last 10 games, they’ve actually been better offensively averaging 4.30 Goals For per game. They have the best Goals % in the NHL with a 58.98%. This team leads the league in Shots on Goal per game, averaging 37.0, but have averaged 39.20 in their last 10. Buffalo gives up the third most shots on goal, so I would expected this number to continue to trend upward after this game. The Panthers Power Play ranks 14th, and has scored at least two goals on the man advantage in their last three games.
Defensively, the Panthers have struggled as of late giving up an average of 3.30 Goals Against in their last 10 games. On the season, they only average 2.91 per game which ranks 15th. They do allow the 12th most shots on goal against averaging 31.0 but have only allowed an average of 26.40 in their last 10. Florida’s Penalty Kill is middle of the road ranking 16th. They aren’t a very disciplined team and have taken at least two penalties a game in their last 10. This isn’t a major concern tonight as Buffalo doesn’t have the best Power Play but something they’ll definitely need to address coming down the stretch before playoffs.
Florida has not confirmed who’s in net yet, so we’re unsure if it’ll be Sergei Bobrovsky or Spencer Knight. Knight was recently recalled from Florida’s AHL affiliate, so I’m assuming he will start. His last start was back on February 1st, where he allowed 4 goals on 34 shots.
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres are coming off a 3-0 loss to the Los Angeles Kings last night. They were only able to generate 19 shots which isn’t great but the Kings do average the least amount of shots on goal allowed. Prior to last nights game, the Sabres won their last two defeating the Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Buffalo is 24th averaging 2.70 Goals For per game but has averaged 3.30 in their last 10 games. Tage Thompson leads the team with 42 points in 52 games. He struggled last year on the wing but his move to center has really provided his game with a spark. Jeff Skinner has also looked better as of late but not $9 Million a year good. The Sabres average 29.9 Shots on Goal per game but have bumped that number up to 34.40 in their last 10. Their Power Play ranks 18th in the NHL but have scored at least one goal in two of their last three games.
Alex Tuch, who was one of the pieces acquired from the Golden Knights in the Jack Eichel trade has looked solid since coming to Buffalo. He’s provided this young team with some leadership and will be one of they key pieces moving forward along with Peyton Krebs, who was also part of that trade.
Defensively, the Sabres have been struggling all year, but especially as of late, allowing an average of 3.90 goals against in their last 10. They allow the third most Shots on Goal against averaging 34.2 per game. They’ve been slightly better recently but still average of 30 against in their last 10. Their Penalty Kill ranks 24th but has only allowed three goals in their last 10 games (19 attempts). They’ve had some injuries on defense this year including Butcher, Jokiharju, and Miller. Will Butcher and Collin Miller are slated to return this month.
Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in net as Dustin Tokarski started against the Kings last night. Anderson has started twice since returning from injury allowing 1 and 4 goals against. He struggled against Minnesota despite securing the win and looked great against the Leafs.
Pick:
FLORIDA PANTHERS/ BUFFALO SABRES OVER 6.5 (-120) – BetMGM
Given the way these teams have been trending offensively and defensively, this game should go over. Florida is a far superior team to the Buffalo Sabres, who are coming off a game last night. The Sabres aren’t necessarily great coming off back to back games, going 1-5-4. They’ve trended more towards the under in those games but I think they can put a few by Florida, especially if Knight gets the start. I’m not sure this game moves to 7.0, but I wouldn’t be shocked. The Panthers will most likely put up 4-5 by themselves so if the Sabres can get 2-3, this game should go over.
Other Plays on the Night:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS OVER 6.5 (-135) – BetMGM
I’m fairly certain that this game will move to 7 before puck drop tomorrow. In TOR L10, they average 4.10 GF and 4.00 GA. In CBJ L10, they average 3.90 GF and 3.70 GA. Peter Mrazek has been confirmed as the starter for the Leafs. In his last two starts, he’s allowed 8 goals against combined. Elvis Merzlikins or J-F Berube will get the start for the Blue Jackets. Neither has been great as of late, so I’m not too worried about who gets the start for Columbus.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Well guys and gals, overall a winning day but what happened in LA was despicable. It took LeBron that kind of performance to make it happen – whatever. Can’t ruminate, moving on. I like today’s NBA lines- let’s attack.
NBA Picks:
Nets +4.5, 2 units and ML sprinkle
The Celtics have been phenomenal but the buck has to stop sometime, and this is the perfect spot. Durant and Kyrie will play, Drummond is back and healthy (which is an important piece in the front court), and the Nets need to start winning and winning often to put themselves in a better position before the postseason. Hard to bet against Boston but we’re doing it today.
Suns/Bucks 1H over 112.5, 1 unit
The Bucks run even faster at home and the Suns run fast without CP3 and Booker. The narrative is that the Suns will be chasing the Bucks all game without their stars – sounds like a sure over, at least in the first half. I’m afraid this could get ugly and scorers could settle down in the 2nd.
Rockets +11, 1.5 units
The Grizzlies had their blowout game yesterday – now they’re on the road against a Rockets team that’s been very feisty as of late. Houston is the right side; let’s hope they don’t blow it.
Cavs -4.5, 1 unit
Only 1 unit because the Raptors are starting to get a little desperate here, but they have NOT looked good without OG Anunoby. They’re playing their starters for too many minutes and the Cleveland bigs should give the Toronto front court a lot of problems. And I like what I saw from CLE in their last win. All Cavs for me here.
ML Sprinkle on the Pelicans
Hard to not play on New Orleans these days. A ML sprinkle, probably not a bad idea here.
CBB Picks:
Michigan +4.5, 1 unit
Nebraska +12.5, 1 unit
Maryland +6, 1 unit
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Tulane got their bye locked in with Wichita winning yesterday and after seeing some of their lineup banged up, it’s likely their coach may either sit or pull some key players. I also believe that is why this one has moved from its -8.5 open. Some concerns here with the bigger line here for SMU but I’m keeping in mind that the NCAAM Tournament committee does account for style points for these bubble teams. I like SMU to come out aggressive in their last home game, where they have been better. First half may be a better look for this game, depending on the number, but those numbers aren’t out yet. I like SMU to roll here.
Patreon’s gone cold of late for me but plenty of action ahead in a very exciting time of the year. Check out more of my plays there!
