862 SE Louisiana vs South Alabama 1H UN 72 (-105)*
Strong system indicating a play to the first half under on these higher totaled games. I believe the books know this with the first half total set much lower than the full game. Looking at SELA when they played TXAMCC in their championship, I saw a team that was highly reliant on just a couple of players. South Alabama was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, I expect them to isolate those players on defense and shut them down at home. Home team should dictate the pace here where SALA is middle of the pack in pace (170th). SALA prefers to get the ball inside and should be able to out athlete SELA there. I don’t expect them to give up a ton at home and they don’t have a tendency to foul (120th defensive free throw rate), so there shouldn’t be a lot of easy points. Market likes the over in this one, so it will be a small play, but I think this one may have moved too much.
This might be a home game in Dayton for Notre dame here. We have give them 1.5 for that. In saying that, I don’t think that the efficiency sites have it correct on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has had the harder strength of schedule than Notre Dame and I have to factor that in here. One matchup advantage that the St. Patty’s day boys have is that shoot a lot of 3s when ranking high at 19th in the nation in three point percentage at 37.7%. Rutgers isn’t good at defending it only ranking 202nd against the long ball. How Rutgers might win this game is that they are great inside. The Knights rank 35th in near proximity shots while Notre Dame ranks only 202nd defending it. That is huge and on a neutral court, rebounds will factor in more where Rutgers also has the advantage. If Rutgers can defend the long ball here, they can win this game and I think the senior leadership that they have in Omiyuri, Baker and Harper will stick out.
Rutgers +1.5 for 1 star
Uconn vs New Mexico State -6.5 O/U 133.5
This is pretty much a home game for UCONN being played in Buffalo New York. I really like what NM State has done this year and they have has some hiccups but they are a sneaky good team that matches up well with UCONN. Both teams have very good defense and will shut each other down inside. Neither team shoots the 3 that good and UConn doesn’t defend it that well. NM state’s big problem is turning the ball over and if that happens a lot it could be very bad, but the good thing is that the Huskies do not have a ball hawking defense and do not get many steals ranking 232nd in the nation. Even though the Huskies play in a much tougher conference and will be at home ish, I think that the Aggies are a very experienced team that got in some great transfers like Teddy Allen and Mario McKinney. I make the number Uconn -6 but I think that the 1st half under 61.5 makes a ton of sense.
1st half under 61.5 – 1.5 stars
Vermont vs Arkansas -5 O/U 139
This game is also in Buffalo NY, and much more of a home game for Vermont. Razorback fans will have to decide between Hogs and gas prices. Arkansas isn’t the greatest team away from home but they had a MUCH harder strength of schedule than Vermont did. Vermont actually has a pretty big matchup advantage from 3 ranking 38th in three point percentage while Arkansas ranks only 131st in defending it. This Vermont team didn’t play anyone but they are also not used to losing and it only happened once in overtime since December 7th. I like this game close
I enjoyed a nice 2-0 Tuesday which included a free play winner on Texas Southern. In addition to tonight’s free play, I have 3 plays reserved for my premium members. Click here to become a premium member and have all of my best plays sent to you every day.
*NBA(1u): Celtics/Warriors UNDER 220(-110)–9 PM CT
This prime time game should feature as close to a “playoff” atmosphere as we’re going to find with still a month left in the regular season. The Warriors recently hit a bump in the road, but they have responded with 4 straight wins. Golden State has held the top-ranked defense all season long, but the offense hasn’t been quite as dominant as you’d think, especially in these tougher matchups. Andrew Wiggins is not 100% to play tonight, which could be a key development for a team that needs consistency around Steph Curry. Boston ranks right up there with Golden State in defensive efficiency metrics, and they’ve honestly been superior on that end of the floor over the last 1.5 months. Each of these teams is averaging less than 100 possessions/game over their last 3 games, and I’d only expect that trend to continue given the competitive atmosphere. This total doesn’t quite do justice to what should be a “no easy buckets” type of game. I like the Under here.
*CBB(1.5u): Rutgers/Notre Dame 1H UNDER 63(-110)–8:10 PM CT
1H Under’s are always going to be a good way to look early in the NCAA Tournament as teams adjust to the unfamiliar environment, but it sets up especially well in this matchup. Notre Dame holds pretty good offensive metrics this season, but they didn’t face very many defenses as physical as Rutgers’ playing in the ACC this season. Think about all the explosive offenses that Rutgers faced playing in the Big Ten; they’re not going to bat an eye facing an Irish attack that only relies on good shooting for points. With that said, Rutgers’ offense can best be described as ugly; there isn’t much to suggest that they’ll come out hot either. Each of these teams runs at a very slow pace(ND: 250th, Rutgers: 289th) and likes to play in the half-court, which should set up for a very low-scoring first half. This is tonight’s best bet, which is saying something given how much I like this card.
*NBA(1u): Cavaliers +4(-110) vs 76ers–6 PM CT
This is a prime spot for Cleveland to make a statement against a team that has beaten them twice over the last month. Both of those games took place in Philly, and while the Cavs were competitive in each, Philly ultimately pulled away. However, the 76ers simply aren’t playing good basketball at the moment. They’ve dropped back-to-back home games against the Nets and Nuggets and needed Overtime to pick up a road win against the lowly Magic. Jarrett Allen being out is a big loss for Cleveland, but they’ve had enough time without him to adjust their rotation. This is a great spot for Caris LaVert to have his first big game as a Cavalier. I like these revenge angles a lot, especially involving a team that has been feisty at home all year. I’ll take the points.
*NBA(1u): Hawks/Hornets OVER 241(-110)–6 PM CT
This is about as clear-cut of an Over spot as we’re going to find. These are two of the best offenses in the league, but each are allergic to playing defense. The home team(Charlotte) is much more likely to dictate the pace, which is ideal since Charlotte ranks 2nd in tempo this season. The Hornets are also in great current form offensively, averaging 138 points over their last 2 games. Don’t let this high total scare you; this eerily similar to the Timberwolves/Spurs matchup we saw a few nights ago, a game that featured a combined 288 points. I like this up to 243.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the Midwest Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll put a post up every evening from now until Thursday saving the Friday games for last.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here in the Midwest and these games are in the Midwest region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the Midwest games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi– 5:40 PM Tuesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
8 San Diego State 9 vs Creighton – 6:27 PM Thursday in Fort Worth, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
6 LSU vs 11 Iowa State – 6:20 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Colgate – 8:50 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
7 USC vs 10 Miami (FL) – 2:10 PM Friday in Greenville, SC
2 Auburn vs 15 Jacksonville State – 11:40 AM Friday in Greenville, SC
1 Kansas (-21.5) vs 16 Texas SouthernO/U 144.5– Watch the lines, but I’d expect Kansas to run away and hide early. This isn’t the best Kansas team to make the tourney, but they are certainly good enough to dominate against Texas Southern. I don’t see much of an edge here on the opening lines, and Might look at first half Kansas if around 11.
5 Iowa (-10.5) vs 12 Richmond O/U 150.5 – Let’s start with this. Iowa got hosed as a 5 seed. 12-8 in conference and win the Big Ten Tourney winning 4 straight games, plus 12-2 in last 14. This reminds me of Wisconsin in 2004 when they went 12-4 in conference, won the tourney and got a 6 seed. I think the committee has everything decided going into the last few games no matter what happens. Iowa had lots of injuries early, and it only really started playing defense in the second half of season. Iowa hasn’t made it to the second weekend in 15 years, but I think this is the year. Richmond won the A-10 tourney to punch their ticket, but this isn’t a team that deserves to be here and this isn’t the 12/5 match-up to pick an upset in. I like Iowa to jump out early and Richmond will try and push to catch-up which I think only puts them in a deeper hole. I’m on Keegan Murray and the 3 Point barrage that the Spiders are about to endure to cover this big spread. Iowa – 10.5 2 Units.
4 Providence (-2) vs 13 South Dakota State O/U 149.5 – Let’s start with this. Providence is 25-5 and was 14-3 in the Big East. “But Knoche??” You ask, “They were only 4-3 down the stretch and got blasted by Creighton in the Big East Championship” Well 2 of those losses were close losses to Villanova. Providence is the luckiest team in the country according to Kenpom, but sometimes you create your own luck. Creighton shot lights out from 3 in the game in the Big East Tourney, and that is concerning with their opponent here. South Dakota State is the top 3 point shooting team in the country hitting 45%. South Dakota State is not very deep and they like to run and push tempo. That works against St. Thomas Minnesota and UMKC, but against a battle tested Big East team who is used to a slower tempo it may be tougher for them to run like they want to, and if they get into foul trouble inside it could spell disaster. I’m pulling for an upset because I love watching the Jackrabbits, but I am staying off this game for now. This is the shortest 4/13 line in 37 years and right now Providence is getting 38% of the bets and 26% of the $. This is screaming trap game to me so I am staying away for now, but lean Providence and will likely be on them small come game time.
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Jan 11, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn (21) chases down a loose ball against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
After breaking down the two Thursday games in my last post, let’s look at 3 games in this South Region that will tip off on Friday! I’ll be back later tonight with 3 more game breakdowns in this region that will tip off on Friday night.
Ohio State(PK) vs Loyola Chicago O/U 132.5–Friday 11:15 AM CT
Public sentiment is down on the Buckeyes after they closed out the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. You could think of this as somewhat of a buy low spot, but Loyola Chicago presents a tough matchup for them. The Ramblers rank 22nd overall in defensive efficiency and also sit in the Top 20 in both FG% and 3PT%. Ohio State, on the other hand, has seen their defensive efficiency rating drop all the way below 130th; rarely do teams that defend at that poor of a clip have much success in March. Loyola Chicago is also the more experienced team that is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last season, while the Buckeyes laid an egg in the first round against Oral Roberts. The one thing that OSU does much better than Loyola is protect the rim, as they average 2.5 more blocks/game than the Ramblers. Ohio State also has really good offensive metrics, played the tougher schedule this season, and has the much more experienced Head Coach. With all that said, this Buckeyes team is not built to make a deep run in March. Loyola can go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes offensively while simultaneously playing better defense, so I could only look towards the Ramblers in this one. While this total might seem low for an Ohio State game, each of these teams ranks in the bottom 25% in tempo. While we know teams tend to come out of the gates slow, I think this total in the low 130’s has factored that in. Loyola Chicago PK is my best look in this game.
Villanova(-15.5) vs Delaware O/U 133.5–1:45 PM CT
Villanova is fresh off of a Big East title run, and given Jay Wright’s reputation in March paired with the experience on this roster, I’m not going to get cute and bet against them here. That being said, this Wildcats team isn’t exactly explosive offensively, shooting just 43.7% from the floor this season. They make up for that by holding the best free throw rate in the country, but that element is much more likely to show up in a close game that comes down to the wire. Given ‘Nova runs at one of the slowest paces in the country, it’s hard for me to lay 15.5 points with them in what should be a low variance game. Delaware is another veteran-laden team that is efficient from the floor, but they rank just 212th in defensive efficiency, likely because they grab defensive rebounds at only the 305th best rate in the country. In an early season matchup against a similar style team in Davidson, the Blue Hens were blown out 93-71. I don’t expect to have a play on this game, but if I had to play it, I would lean towards the Under 133.5 or Delaware TT UNDER given possessions should be at a premium.
Illinois(-7.5) vs Chattanooga O/U 135.5–Friday 5:50 PM CT
Call me crazy, but I think Chattanooga could keep this game close. The Mocs are a very experienced team that does a lot of little things very well; they make 75.2% of their free throws and also pick up offensive rebounds at a Top 50 rate. However, Illinois has a huge X-factor in Center Kofi Cockburn, who averaged 21.1 PPG and 10.6 RPG playing in the country’s best conference. Chattanooga blocks just 2.2 shots/game, and I worry how they’ll respond facing such a dominant post presence. Illinois is also very trustworthy offensively given they can also make 3’s at a high rate and hold a 1.3 assist/turnover ratio(33rd in CBB). On paper, it would appear the rebounding battle could be neck-and-neck, but then again, I think there’s a world in which Cockburn totally takes over this game. That unknown keeps me off of the Chattanooga side, and in all honesty, I think this number is about right to begin with. Chattanooga is a slow-paced team that is going to want to keep this game in the halfcourt and make the Illini offense stagnant, and Illinois has proven that it will adjust its pace based off their opponent. For that reason, I lean towards the 1H UNDER; I want to stay away from the full game Under given each team should theoretically settle in after Halftime and each team can make their foul shots. This is one of the more exciting matchups we’ll have on Friday, but there might be more value found elsewhere.
A fine Tuesday, but I like Wednesday’s slate much better. Let’s have a big night
NBA Picks:
Nuggets -5.5, 2 units
The Nuggets gained some real momentum the other night in a TOUGH win against Philly. Jokic actually had a down night, but he made up for it with some electric passing. Denver’s bench contributed significantly and that’s important heading into the playoffs. Momentum, talent, and depth all favor Denver. Take Denver.
Knicks -10, 1 unit
The Knicks are a hard team to trust, but the Blazers are exponentially harder to trust in ANY situation. Portland is getting blown out at home, not a good sign, and I’m pretty certain this is THE worst roster in the NBA currently. No Nurkic. No Simons. No Lillard. The Knicks can still make the playoffs and they have a lot of steam heading into this contest. Go Knicks – this should be a BLOWOUT.
Lakers T-Wolves over 237, 1.5 units
T-Wolves TT over 122 or 123, 2 units
Are you kidding me? The probability is VERY low that the Lakers can stop this potent Minnesota offense. How many times do the Timberwolves have to show us what they’re capable of before we believe it? This game will be fast-paced and the scoring will be constant, especially from Minnesota’s side. I’d take the total up to 240 and MIN’s TT up to 225.
Bucks/Kings over 240, 1.5 units
Somehow the Kings find ways to keep producing offense and the Bucks offense is humming after their showing against Utah. Points points points – Hard to imagine this not going well into the 240s.Sabonis and Giannis should both have big nights- I like this up to 241.
Celtics/Warriors under 221.5, 1 unit
If this was anywhere near 220, I was prepared to play the under and here we are. Boston and Golden State are clearly equipped with a ton of offensive firepower, but it’s been their defenses that set the tone this year. This one will feel like a rivalry, even though it isn’t, and the long arms of Boston should cause a lot of issues for the Warriors’ back court. Meanwhile, Draymond Green is back for GS, which should only slow down their pace and make them more nuanced – I expect longer possessions, a slow game, and enough stops on defense to keep this under. I’d take this as low as 217.
CBB Picks:
Notre Dame -1, 1.5 units
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
We have a massive show for you today! Nick Hub from The OddsBreakers is on to discuss a massive Thursday of games, info picks and leans! First, Kiev reminds everyone to get in our free bracket challenge to win $500! Next, Nick comes on and the guys talk a little NFL, MLB and bracket information. Then, the guys get right into the Thursday of the NCAA tournament with a pick or a lean on every single game! Hope you enjoy and best of luck with your betting and your brackets! Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
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