Home Blog Page 366

4 Free Premium Picks (3 CBB, 1 NBA) for Thursday, March 3rd

By
Nick Hub
-

Who’s ready for more winners!?! We went 3-1 last night and are 6-3 over the past 3 days!  Today, I have 4 more premium plays for you below on the last day of the free trial as we look to cash on College Basketball and NBA tonight!! 

This will be the last day for the Free trial, so sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

Best of luck if you tail!

Hartford is hosting the UMass-Lowell Riverhawks in a conference showdown. Hartford is 11-18 this season with a 6-4 record in their last ten games played, 7-5 as a favorite and are also 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games played. UML is currently 14-15, 4-6 in their L10 and are 4-8 this season as an underdog. Hartford scores on average 70.2 points per game and allows 72.3 points per game on defense. Lowell scores 66.2 points per game and is surrendering 66.8 points per game on the defensive end of the court. This is a pure revenge angle for Hartford seeing as they lost 85-75 in the first meeting. The rebounding battle wasn’t close while MA-Lowell grabbed 33 total rebounds and had the advantage in offensive rebounds 15-4 against Hartford. Look for Hartford to still lose the rebounding battle but for it to be not as bad, Hartford is currently playing with positive momentum. UMass-Lowell’s offense has really struggled over their last five games played, shooting sub 40% from the field with a 38.6% number over that span. On the flip side, Hartford is currently annihilating opponent defenses with pure shooting, as an offense Hartford is averaging a team FG% of 47.2%. Take Hartford -1

Southern Methodist is putting together a great end of the season and are trying to finish it with a stamp with a home victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats. SMU is 20-7 on the season, 14-0 at home, 17-3 as a favorite, and are also 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games played. Cincy enters this contest 17-13, 3-7 in their last ten games played, 4-6 on the road (3-8 ats) and are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games played. The Bearcats offense averages 69.6 points per game while their defense allows 66.8 points per game. The home Mustangs are averaging 74.4 points per game on offense and are giving up 67.2 points per game as a defense which yields their team a +7.2 point differential. Cincy is currently at the disadvantage to the Mustangs in average score margin, assists per game as well as overall rebounding and effective field goal percentage as a team. SMU ranks 40th in all-play percentage this year as well as in record quality. The Ponies also have the 51st rated scoring defense in terms of efficiency and they also are the 36th ranked offense in terms of efficiency. It would not be shocking to see SMU win this game by 10+ points seeing as Cincy is in a tailspin to end their season. Take SMU -7

 

Valpo will be going up against the worst team in the MVC bracket in Evansville. Evansville is currently 6-23, 1-9 in their last ten games played, 2-11 as the road team and are 2-21 this season as the underdog. Valparaiso is currently 13-17 this season, and are 7-4 as a favorite this year. It is worth noting that the Beacons took both regular season matchups and have a significant matchup advantage against Evansville. Valpo is averaging 68.5 points per game on offense currently and their defense is giving up 71.6 points per game. Valpo also has the major advantage in ALL offensive categories. Evansville has lost their last seven games in a row and yielded a -21 point differential over their last three games played, a sign that they have truly given up on the season. Right now, Valpo is scorching hot on offense and as a team is shooting 48.1% from the field over their last five games played, an all green light sign for their offense seeing as the Evansville defense is giving up an opponent FG% of 55.3% over the last five games. Look for the Beacons to take their offense to the interior where they have been able to dominate Evansville in the previous two matchups. Take Valparaiso -5.5

The Heat are on the road in Brooklyn but I feel as though they got plenty of sleep. The Nets have only won 3 games in their last ten games played and are still looking at home to get KD into the rotations while not having James Harden or Kyrie Irving. I could easily just say reasons above in the previous write-ups about the Heat but the fact is that wouldn’t be cool. The Heat (bad pun again intended) are the HOTTEST NBA team and have taken over sole possession of the east. Bam Adebayo coming back healthy has been key and now Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are both hitting more of their threes. In 39 games played against the Eastern conference this season, the Heat are 26-13 while averaging 107.9 points per game and 13.4 three pointers made per game in those 39 games played. The Heat as a favorite this season are 30-14 while the Nets are 8-15 as the underdog. The rebounding edge that Miami holds will be tough to overcome for Brooklyn who has no size and no physicality factor to their DNA. More rebounds and extra possessions will lead to the Heat being able to get more three pointers into the air. Couple that with their elite defense and you have a recipe for a win and a cover. This spread should be closer to two possessions. Take Miami -2.5

This will be the last day for the Free trial so, sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

March 3rd Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

*NBA(1u): Heat -2.5(-110) @ Nets–6:30 PM CT

This is a bad spot for Miami given that they played a down-to-the-wire game in Milwaukee last night and have Philadelphia on deck this Saturday. That being said, this is simply a bad line; without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets deserve to be priced like a lottery team. Jimmy Butler scored just 6 points in last night’s game and went 2-14 from the floor, so you can expect he’ll come out with his hair on fire tonight. While Miami is still without Kyle Lowry and could even rest a key piece tonight, I firmly believe that they have a system in place that works. There are interchangeable pieces on that roster that Erik Spoelstra can use to mix-and-match in games like this. Brooklyn is just 3-15 over their last 18 games and are a total “play against” team for me at the moment. You will see fishy lines like this often in the NBA, and I believe it is my job to sniff out the legitimacy of them. This is a bad line and grossly overestimates the effect of Miami being on a back-to-back as well as the capabilities of this Nets roster. Miami -2.5 is the play. 

*CBB(1u): Tulane +1.5(-110) vs UCF–7 PM CT

I price these teams as near equals, so getting 1.5 points with the home team was too good for me to pass up. Tulane is 6-2 straight up and against the spread at home in conference play, while UCF is 2-5 SU and against the spread on the road in conference play. I think many people still view UCF too highly after they entered into this season with high expectations, but it’s past time for people to admit those expectations haven’t been met. This is also a revenge game for Tulane after they lost by 2 at UCF earlier this season. In that game, the Green Wave led by 4 with 2 minutes to play before squandering the lead. I think we get a great showing from the home dog here in a spot that tips the scales in their direction; I’ll take the points with Tulane in a role they’ve performed nicely in. 

*ML Parlay(0.8u): Illinois 1H, Kansas 1H, Raptors(+106)–6 PM CT

Illinois has played 7 of their last 8 games against NCAA Tournament teams, so getting Penn State at home should be a nice change of pace for the Illini. Penn State is dreadful offensively, and while they bring a good level of intensity on the defensive end of the floor, they don’t have the Jimmies and Joes to match up well with Illinois. With Iowa on deck, I think Illinois is going to want to get this one over as quickly as possible. I’ll look towards Illinois to take a lead into the Half.

TCU completed a magical 2 game home stretch that saw them take down both Texas Tech and Kansas. Yes, that’s 2 court storms in the span of 4 days. With the Horned Frogs squarely in the tournament now, the urgency could slip a bit in a spot that heavily favors Kansas. The Jayhawks do have a slight look ahead with Texas coming into town on Saturday, but I would imagine Kansas has their way in this one facing off with a clearly inferior team that beat them just 2 days ago. I think Kansas dominates this game in the 1H.

The Raptors are facing off with the lowly Pistons after completing a 2-game sweep of the Nets. Toronto could welcome back Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby tonight, but even without them, they should have more than enough to take care of the 15-47 Pistons. The Raptors lost by 16 the last time these 2 teams played, so even in a sleepy spot, we should get a good effort from them tonight. This is the last game of a 3 game road trip for Detroit; with a winnable home game on deck against the Pacers tomorrow, we could see them mail this one in the 2H.

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday NCAAB Horizon League Tournament Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Thursday card led by an NCAAB Platinum Supreme Top Play, the NHL Total Of the Week and a Powerful NBA System Side. Horizon League Comp Play below.

The Horizon League Comp Play is on Oakland plus the Points at 7:00 Eastern. The Grizzlies have a better record, a far better RPI Scale rank, a Big Defensive edge and home loss revenge. Much like our top play on Wagner last night, Oakland should be salty and can win this one outright.. They have covered 23 of 32 off 3+ home games. Wright St has failed to cover 15 of 21 off a win and is ranked 253rd on defense and has played a much weaker Schedule overall. Look for Oakland to get the cover. On Thursday another Powerful Hoops card is up with an NCAAB Platinum Supreme move headlining. We also have the NHL Perfect System Total Of The Week and a Top NBA Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the Horizon League Play. Go with the Grizzlies plus the 4-5 points. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Premiums, 3.3

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up my people! I’m up early and ready to motherfucking go – a little amped waking up knowing I lost that parlay (Yes I went to bed early like an old man, yes I’m talking about UCONN. What are you kidding me, Huskies? Beat Creighton for once in your life!). Can’t be mad about a 3-1 day in the association, though; 2-1 officially since we don’t count props as either wins or losses. 2-1 in CBB too, not too shabby.

Onto Thursday! Let’s keep moving these lines! 
NBA Picks:
  • Grizzlies/Celtics under 224.5, 1.5 units
    • I’m as amazed as anyone with Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, so much that I put down a futures bet at +2800 for Memphis to win it all. But from what I’ve seen from this Boston defense as of late, I’ll need a team to PROVE they can get into the front court and maneuver around their elite group. This should be really good TV, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics win outright. Remember, Boston’s defense is literally perfect against a team like Memphis because of how they defend the paint. We’ll see what the result is, but I expect a hard-fought game and a lower total. I’d play this down to 220.
  • Warriors/Mavericks under 219, 2 units
    • The most recent version of the Warriors seems to run at the pace of their opponent. That’s why we saw inflated totals in their games against Minnesota, Portland, and LAL in the last few games. Those were also teams with very mediocre defenses. Neither of those apply to Dallas. The Mavericks run at one of the slowest paces in the NBA (in fact, they’re THE slowest paced team over their last 10 games), and they’re the #2 rated defense since Jan 1. The Warriors have struggled on defense recently, but the Mavericks are a team they can slow down. The Mavs have little talent in the paint and they’re overly-reliant on outside shooters; this is a good spot for the Golden State defense to get-right. I love this to fly under. I’d play this down to 216 – I have it at 212.
  • Spurs -6.5, 1 unit
    • Not a great line for a team that we don’t love to depend on, but look at what happened to the piss-poor Kings against the Pelicans last night (realllllly wish I just bit on the Pelicans side) – yikes! And now Sacramento is on a back to back, on the road, against a well-rested San Antonio team looking for a playoff spot and in desperate need of a win after 2 straight losses? I have to like the Spurs here, and their ability to roll down the court in fast breaks should give them an edge against a Kings’ team that gives very little resistance and will only cultivate the Spurs’ offense with their tempo. I wouldn’t take it beyond this number, it’s a little high, but I like SAS to roll.
CBB Picks: (all 1 unit):
  • UT Arlington +3.5:
    • UT Arlington won both of their two previous contests and they’re the more experienced team.
  • Lehigh ML:
    • They’ve been more consistent than Army on offense, especially in recent games. I’ll go with the PA mountain team to take a W.
  • Michigan -2:
    • Big game for the Wolverines, more experience at coaching, more size– this is Michigan’s game to control and I think they step up and cover.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris 

Expected Bets For – Episode 7 – March 3rd, 2022 NHL Breakdown

By
Patrick Gates
-
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For we have special guest Matt, aka @TopCheddarPicks on Twitter to help breakdown Thursday March 3rd’s NHL slate.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically what to look at when interpreting NHL player props.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
  • NHL News/ Notes
    • Hot/ Cold Teams
    • Trade Market
    • Coaching Changes
  • Betting Strategies
  • Player Props
  • Recent NHL Trends

You can follow Matt on Twitter @TopCheddarPicks.

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NCAAM Wednesday Free Play

By
Kristobal Lundborg
-
689 St. Louis -2 (-115)* at Rhode Island
STL hasn’t been a great team away from home as they had a unique schedule where they only played 6 road games in their first 18, so they haven’t done well on the road initially. I think they have adjusted to being on the road. When we look at their recent road games, we see that they played some tough ones on the road and kept it close in most of their losses, besides getting spanked by top ranked Davidson. Rhode Island does not present the same ability to knock down shots (266th Off. efficiency) and STL’s offense should be too much tonight (46th in same category). STL also comes as a much higher rated team on the outside looking in as far as their postseason hopes to get into the Big Dance, they can ill afford to lose one to a bottom A-10 team.

While Rhode Island always plays tough at home, I’ll take my chances with STL, in what I consider a “buy low” spot, to get there winning by more than a possession. In what bookmakers expect to be a close one, STL comes in very capable to put it away in the end at 55th in FT attempt rate and 17th in FT%. Also like the under in this one as both teams prefer to pound it out on the inside. Line has moved to RI in this one, so will keep it to a small play for me.

I have an additional 2 plays at my Patreon tonight in college basketball!

4 Free Premium Picks (3 CBB, 1 NBA) for March 2nd

By
Nick Hub
-

We are back for more action for Wednesday night!! Last night, we were a bad beat away from a 3-0 sweep with Mizzou hitting a 3 at the buzzer. Like I said yesterday, I have decided to give out all of my plays out for FREE until Thursday (only at The Oddsbreakers!!).  This gives everyone a sample of what to expect for this weekend, next week and the Big Dance! Today, I have 4 premium plays for you below as we cash on regular season matchups and the conference tourneys!! The next 3 weeks will be, arguably, the most exciting and profitable time of the year!! I have not had a negative CLV since Feb 21st.  Is that a sign of a nice streak coming?? Time will tell!

Treat this week as a trial and sign up for my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

Best of luck if you tail!

High Point and Hampton meet up for a rubber match, in this third rendition High Point enters the game with a 13-17 record, 5-5 as a favorite and are 16-10-1 against the spread. High Point lost the first matchup in overtime by 4 points, Hampton out rebounded HP in that game 56-38 and neither team shot the ball well. High Point recently played quality ball in the second meeting and was able to win the rebounding battle on top of shooting much better and well over their potential (58% from the field). HP owns a +9.7 point differential in their last three games played. The amount of blocks that the HP defense has accumulated recently has helped their teams overall point differential. In the most recent matchup, this High Point defense was able to tally NINE blocks while utilizing their size and physicality. Over the span of the last five games played for High Point, their offense has been shooting lights out from the field at 53.7%. Hampton currently ranks 343rd in offensive points per game in the country and are ranked 352nd in 3P% while High Points defense ranks 12th nationally in terms of opponent three point percentage. Take High Point -5.5 

Rutgers goes on the road to take on the Hoosiers in Indiana at Assembly Hall. The Scarlet Knights are 16-12, 12-13 against the spread this season and are 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games played. The home Indiana squad is 18-10 on the season with a 17-5 record as the favorite, and are 14-8 against the spread as a favorite to this point of the season. Rutgers ranks 300th or worse in opponent blocks and steals as well as points scored. Meaning, through having a high volume of their shots blocked or possessions stolen, Rutgers renders the ability to score points. Over their last three games played, Rutgers owns a -8.7 point differential and a -6.7 point differential over their last three road games played. Indiana is 12-5 against the spread at home and owns the 45th best home court advantage. While at home, Indiana’s offense shoots 47.3% and only allows their opponents to shoot 37.2% from the floor while on defense. Rutgers scores most of their points from inside of the arch, which will be a tough task tonight seeing as the Hoosiers rank as the 3rd best defense inside the arc in the Big Ten. As mentioned above, the Scarlet Knights will give a lot of possessions away seeing as they rank 13th in their conference for TO%, look for Indiana to use their speed and take steals straight to the cup. Take Indiana -5

SIU-Edwardsville and Tennessee State meet for the third time to open their Ohio Valley Conference Tournament play up. TSU is coming off of a loss (10-4 against the spread after a loss) and is 13-17 this season with a 5-5 record in their last ten games played but going 7-3 against the spread in that span. SIU is 11-20 this season, 4-16 as the underdog and are 4-6 in their last ten games played. Edwardsville is coming off of a win but are 2-7 against the spread after a victory. When SIUE is the underdog of 1-4.5 points, their record is 2-7 against the spread Tennessee State ranks 23rd in blocks as a defense nationally and finds their offense within the Top-100 in seven different offensive categories. Tennessee State won both matchups in the regular season and have a significant advantage against Edwardsville who is not a very deep team. SIU likes to turn the ball over and Tennessee State will more than likely win the rebounding battle again after winning it in the previous two matchups. The Tennessee State offense should be able to recreate a lot of their shots in this third matchup against a team the Tigers had immense success against previously on multiple occasions. Take Tennessee State -2.5

The Heat are (bad pun intended) hot right now, and those are facts. Miami has one of the best against the spread records in the NBA and owns a 41-12 overall record while going 9-1 in their last ten games played. The Heat are road warriors and have a road record of 20-14 while going 20-14 against the spread in their road games played. The Bucks are 37-25 this season and sit below the Heat within the Eastern Conference standings. Milwaukee has a 27-36 record against the spread this season and are 12-22 against the spread while being the home team. He is not a huge name but George Hill is out and he does affect the Bucks rotations, especially since Milwaukee has had health and depth issues all season. Kyle Lowry is someone who will remain out for the Heat in this ball game. Miami enters this game 13-5 as an underdog and have scored 110+ points in their last four games played while going 4-0 in those games. Miami ranks 5th in opponent FG% as a defense and are the 1st ranked rebounding team in the entire NBA. Rebounding, effort and defense all travel, the Heat are in a position to pick up another Eastern Conference victory. With solid defense and timely shooting, the Heat will be able to win and cover this spread. Take Miami +4.5

Roobet

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

March 2nd CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
-
George Mason forward Josh Oduro (13) in action during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Maryland, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021, in College Park, Md. George Mason won 71-66. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

In addition to this free play, I also have 3 plays reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.3% clip and have netted my members +49u since September 2021. Click here to become a premium member!

*CBB(1u): George Mason/Davidson OVER 136.5(-110)–6 PM CT

Davidson is a team I expect to disappoint in March, but you can’t ignore how efficient they are on the offensive end of the floor. This is a team that shoots 48.2% from the field(18th in CBB), 38.5% from 3(10th in CBB), and 76% from the free-throw line(35th in CBB). Out of 358 teams, the Wildcats rank 14th in offensive efficiency. George Mason has found itself vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor in their tougher A-10 matchups, and they rank just 142nd in defensive efficiency. However, don’t let Davidson’s last few games against lowly Duquesne and Fordham fool you; this is a below average defense that ranks just 157th in defensive efficiency. George Mason scored 41 in the second half of their last game and should enter tonight ready to keep it rolling with one of the best players in the A-10(Josh Oduro) at their disposal. Neither of these teams like to push the pace, but I think efficiency trumps pace in this specific matchup(and in general). I wanted to take the points with GMU here, but I think the Over allows us much more wiggle room. George Mason’s path to victory is being able to trade buckets with Davidson, and this play also accounts for the possibility of Davidson’s offense clicking on all cylinders and putting up a crooked number.

March 2nd Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-
*NBA(1u): Pacers ML(-120) @ Magic–6:10 PM CT

–These teams played on Monday, with the Magic eventually pulling away in the second half in a 16 point win. Now, these teams will meet again in a spot that historically favors the team that lost the first game. While Indiana has had a disappointing season, I actually like the roster they mustered together after the Trade Deadline. With Tyrese Halliburton, Buddy Hield, and Oshae Brissett leading the way, this is a team that is sneaky. They entered Monday’s matchup with no days of rest after beating the Celtics by 21 on Sunday; that alone should tell you how much potential this young roster has. Orlando is a bad basketball team that has won back-to-back games just two other times this season. I like the Pacers to enact revenge tonight in what has been a very profitable angle.

*CBB(0.8u): Creighton 1H ML(+135) vs UCONN–7:30 PM CT

Creighton is 2-point underdogs in the 1st Half of this one, yet we are getting +135 odds at our disposal. By my calculation, this should be at +115 or maybe +120. The line value alone doesn’t get me on this play, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Creighton actually beat UCONN in Hartford earlier this season and is a team I generally believe has been undervalued by the oddsmakers. Sure, this is a young Blue Jays team that hasn’t lived up to past teams’ offensive success, but they have made up for that by their defensive prowess, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday’s loss at Providence, Creighton had won their previous 6 games. I really don’t fault them for the Providence loss because it was their second straight road game and Providence had all the motivation in the world to clinch their first ever regular season Big East title. Speaking of second straight road games, that is the situation UCONN finds themselves in tonight. They did beat Georgetown their last time out, but they were outscored by 6 in the second half and looked lethargic on the defensive end of the floor. This team has won 5 straight, but I don’t believe they’re as good as their record might indicate. I’m looking towards Creighton to take a lead into the half.

*CBB(1u): Miami -4(-110) @ Boston College–8 PM CT

Miami has regressed a bit as of late, losing 2 straight close home games to Virginia and Virginia Tech. However, the Hurricanes are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road in conference play this season. Coming off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia Tech, this is anything but a “let down” spot for a team that still has everything to play for. I liken this to a game Miami played at Pittsburgh last week; they came out hot and eventually won by 21. Boston College is a talentless basketball team that simply can’t trade buckets with high-octane offenses like Miami. I like the Hurricanes to bounce back and cover the short spread.

1...365366367...665Page 366 of 665