897 San Jose State 1H +12 (0.5u) at San Diego State
Another system play that has lost it’s last two but is 16-8 ATS since 2019 that tells us in the L8 games of the season to play on a losing team playing against a winning team as a road conference dog with the 1H spread from +10.5 to +15.5. The recent losing streak of this system makes it a small play for me, but SJST does come in with some momentum winners of their L2 and SDST a slow-paced team that might come out sleepy in what should be a dominant win.
Check more of my plays out at Patreon where I have 4 additional plays tonight!
It’s FRIDAY baby and we have a very special show with a very special guest- Kate Constable! Known for her various gigs as a sports broadcaster and most recently for her hosting and sharp bets on the BetUS NBA show, Kate joins Chris today to talk about her background, her approach to betting, and her and Chris break down a few games from a betting perspective. Check it out!
I cashed the free play winner on the Suns/Thunder 1H Under last night and enjoyed a 2-1 night overall. I’m back at it with 4 plays tonight, 3 of those being reserved for premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.8% clip and have netted my members +50.25u since September 2021. Click here to become a premium member, and let’s start the weekend out right!
*NBA(1u): Timberwolves +2(-110) vs 76ers–7:10 PM CT
Unsurprisingly, everybody loves Philadelphia tonight given James Harden will be making his debut as a 76er. I don’t care who you are, it’s extremely difficult to jump into a new situation and have immediate success. When you also consider that the ‘6ers haven’t played in over a week, I think this is a really good spot to play against them. Minnesota got their feet wet with an impressive win against the Grizzlies last night. While D’Angelo Russell played 38 minutes, Karl Anthony Towns played just 28 minutes in preparation for his matchup with Joel Embiid tonight. Also, given that the T-Wolves just had a week off themselves, I worry less about fatigue in the second game of a back-to-back than I normally would. James Harden should put up great numbers over the rest of this season, but I am not inclined to trust him or anybody else for that matter in his first game with a new team. I’ll fade the public here and back the home ‘dog.
*NBA(1u): Heat/Knicks 1H UNDER 109(-110)–6:40 PM CT
This is each team’s first game back from the All-Star Break, so rust should be expected from both offenses. The Knicks haven’t been very efficient on that end of the floor to begin with this season, and while Miami has climbed into the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, I’m skeptical that we’ll see that hold through the rest of the season. In addition, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the league. Miami is borderline elite defensively, and I’m still holding out hope that Tom Thibodeaux gets his team playing better on that end of the floor like they did last year. I think each team struggles to find a rhythm in the 1H, defenses take over, and this one stays under the 1H total.
*NBA(1u): Pelicans 1H TT UNDER 54.5(-115) @ Suns–8:10 PM CT
This is the Pelicans first game back from the break, while the Suns got their feet wet with a 20-point win in OKC last night. While defenses tend to slip in the second leg of a back-to-back, I worry less about that given the Suns had a week off before last night’s game. Also, Phoenix just doesn’t take games off and rank 3rd overall in defense efficiency, so I’m more than willing to trust them here tonight. I know the Pelicans added CJ McCollum at the Deadline which has provided a spark to their offense, but I wouldn’t expect this team to come out clicking tonight. Additionally, New Orleans ranks 24th in pace and have actually begun moving slower since adding McCollum. I’ll trust the Suns defense in the first half facing off with a rusty and unreliable Pelicans bunch.
*NBA(1u): Lakers -1(-110) vs Clippers–9:10 PM CT
I was shocked to see that the public is on the Clippers in this one; you would think LeBron James would get the benefit of the doubt in a pick’em type of game, but it appears that the Lakers have fallen that far out of favor. Anthony Davis being out certainly hurts, and in no way am I saying the Lakers are destined for a deep playoff run. However, I don’t get the logic behind backing the Clippers in a pick’em type of game. This team can be feisty catching multiple possessions, but they are still without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norm Powell and sit below .500 right with the Lakers. I’m going to take a shot with LeBron here in a nationally-televised game he can certainly take over.
The NBA is back and it FEELS SO GOOD! We earn a 3-1 start (with a push) in our return to betting the association – onto Friday!
I’ll put numbers next to my picks for now on, not stars, so that it’s more clear and so that we can do 1/2 unit betting, too. Remember, we ALWAYS bet to WIN that unit amount. In other words, if I say a play is 1 unit and it’s -110, I’m putting 1.1 units on that bet to win 1 unit. Hopefully that makes sense – let me know if it doesn’t.
One other note – sorry to do this, but I’m going back on my Lakers pick. The discord in the Lakers’ locker room is uglier than I thought. And this game, like many, comes down to how motivated LeBron is. Do I think the Lakers will win? YES. I think LeBron responds, but it’s too volatile. I’d pull out your bets, unfortunately, and thankfully you should be able to get a full reimbursement because the line either hasn’t changed or it’s moved against us. My apologies for that – trigger happy.
NBA Picks:
Magic/Rockets over 229, 1.5 units
The only thing we know about these two piss poor teams is that they like to run fast, REALLY fast. And for what it’s worth, both Houston and Orlando have pretty decent offensive talent, especially when they’re all healthy. I expect the young players to put on a show and little resistance to match it on the defensive end.
Raptors Team Total over 114, 2 units
If there’s one thing we know about this matchup, it’s that Toronto can score points against the Hornets. They have a significant size advantage down low, resulting in their ability to constantly out-rebound the Hornets and get second-chance opportunities. I like the Raptors in this game but Charlotte needs to get back on track if they want a chance at a postseason run and they’re at home. I’ll take Toronto’s point total instead.
Heat -5.5, 1.5 units
I thought about playing on the Knicks here but, no Derrick Rose still? Kemba out for the season? RJ Barrett is questionable? And oh yea, the Knicks are definitely a team to fade in the final 2 months of the season. The Heat, meanwhile, are just coasting on top of the Eastern Conference and now they’re FULLY healthy heading to MSG. Good luck, Knickerbockers.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @VegasInsider and @MajorWager comes on to talk about some College Hoops and UFC on ESPN 49! First, Brian and Kiev discuss some buy low, sell high teams. Then, the guys talk about some early futures on some teams that might have a shot at making some noise in the tournament. Next, Brian and Kiev talk about some huge college basketball games for the weekend with some leans and some FREE PLAYS. Finally, we talk some UFC on ESPN 49 as well as some big fights in the future. Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
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Coming off a 4-1 night in college hoops, I’m back at it today with 3 NBA plays. In addition to this free play, I have 2 plays reserved for my premium members. With a 4-0 sweep last night, my premium plays are now hitting at a 57.9% clip and have netted my members +50.5u since September 2021. Click here to hop on board as a premium member!
*NBA(1u): Suns/Thunder 1H UNDER 107(-110)–7:10 PM CT
Oklahoma City ranks dead last in offensive efficiency this year, but did you know they rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency? I know that Phoenix is hard not to trust, but I wouldn’t expect either team to look in peak form offensively after over a week away from game action. Thankfully, the Suns rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and were playing at an elite level on that end of the floor prior to the All Star Break. Also, Monty Williams has a great group of guys who don’t take games off, so I can trust that the Suns won’t overlook this game. All in all, I think this is a low-scoring game where each offense struggles to find their rhythm and defense takes center stage, and I think that’s especially true early. 1H Under is the play for me.
The Kings are truly in shambles as an organization after trading away Tyrese Haliburton at the Trade Deadline. While they did receive Damontis Sabonis in return, this team just doesn’t have much to play for in the final part of the season. Denver, on the other hand, sits as the 6 seed in the West and has everything to play for. I have been higher on the Nuggets than most this season, and in general, I expect them to have a strong finish to the regular season. Sacramento plays arguably the worst defense in the league and surprisingly ranks just 22nd in offensive efficiency as well, so I have no problem playing against them here in what could be a low-motivation spot for them.
In a spot where both teams come in on similar rest, I am perplexed as to why this line is so short. Memphis is better in every stage of the game, has a great young core, and has proven to come through in typical “letdown” spots, so why shouldn’t I be willing to trust them here? I think the T-Wolves are generally a bit overvalued in the market, and I can’t trust them coming off an 8 day break. Memphis has been rolling all season, and I really don’t think there’s any need to overthink this. I’ll pay the extra 15 cents and take the Grizz on the ML tonight.
At some books, you can get the Nets up to +8 now. That’s a tad inflated at this point and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take the Nets’ side now, especially if you got the Celtics at -5 or less. That’s a good middle/hedge.
