Hopefully you all get this:
Jokic over 27 points, 1.5 units
Without Nurkic in for the Blazers, I don’t see how anyone can stop Jokic today. I think he gets into the 30s with ease.
Premiums, 2.27
Welp, definitely a shitty day for many of us in CBB – annoying, but we should have gone 2-1 in the NBA; the Memphis TT over not hitting was completely fraudulent. Oh well, onto Sunday.
NBA Picks:
- 76ers/Knicks over 217, 2 units
- Philly looked like a juggernaut with James Harden 2 days ago. and Harden has never played with a star big man (Durant doesn’t count, he plays like a guard). WIth Embiid potentially more open than he ever has been in his career, I’ll keep wanting to play on the Sixers and play on their overs. The Knicks are still shitty on the defensive end, too, and they’ll need to score to keep pace.
- Parlay (1 unit to 1.35 units)- 76ers win, Over 217
- Hornets TT over 220, 1.5 units
- Sundays are weird in the NBA, which is a thing, but the Hornets have OWNED the Pistons this year (scoring 140+ in both of their previous matchups), and they looked crisp in their opening win after the all star break. Don’t piss your pants, Charlotte.
CBB Picks:
- No chance in hell I’m betting on dumbass, pimple-laden college kids on a cold Sunday in February after last night. No offense to those who love betting on college sports, but sometimes I wonder – why the hell do we bet on a bunch of young flakes who literally don’t know how to wipe their own asses yet? Maybe I’m still sour from Saturday… ha.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NHL Comp Play- Canucks at Rangers
Sunday card has a Rare 6* NBA Undefeated Totals System and an NCAAB Blowout. NHL Comp Play below.
The NHL Comp play is on the NY. Rangers at 7:35 eastern. The Rangers return home after getting blanked in Pittsburgh on Saturday. NY has won 5 of 7 with no rest and 19 of 26 in a 3rd game in 4th night scenario. They are ranked 3rd in total defense and wont have any problems with a Vancouver team ranked 23rd on offense. The Canucks have dropped 5 of 7 vs the Eastern Conference and 14 of 18 on Sundays. The Rangers have won 8 of 9 on Sundays and 17 of 22 at home. With the Host team 4-1 in the series we will back the Rangers here tonight. On Sunday another Powerful card is up and backed with a Rare 6* NBA Total with a Perfect Totals system. We also have NCAAB and more. Jump on now and end the week big. For the NHL Comp Play. Play on New York. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
NCAAM Saturday Late Play
799 Eastern Washington -4.5* at Sacramento State
Smelly line tonight in California with EWU 4-1 ATS as an away favorite only favored by -4.5 against a SACST team that’s 1-5 ATS as a home dog. EWU’s record may not be that flashy, but they have beat 3 of the top 5 in the Big Sky including their last road win at Northern Colorado. This will be their 3rd straight road game and we just saw them have a letdown game, losing to Idaho after beating the top ranked Montana State last week. Perhaps bookmakers see a similar letdown spot here.
Currently seeing a -5 pop at the sharp Circa book now and I agree with the move as EWU’s offense (53rd in points) is quite capable of beating a SACST team that likes to slow it down and rely on their defense (346th in points). I like this Eagles team to cover this one by at least 3 possessions and get some footing in this very competitive Big Sky Conference!
Still a few plays left on the card for me at my Patreon, with a 2 unit play going late as well.
College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting
Wisconsin vs Rutgers -2.5 O/U 132
If you asked me to bet against Rutgers at the Rac, I would have to call you crazy, but one thing is for sure, this is a road revenge spot for Wisconsin and Rutgers is in a good spot coming off of two bad road performances. Now, Wisconsin’s defense is good but not as good as in past years. Their guys down slow move rather slow and the dribble drive tends to take them out of their game. Rutgers has been a very good passing team this year ranking 17th in he nation in assist to FG%. This is why Rutgers performs so well at home shooting 44.5% at 34.2% from three. Wisconsin is actually a decent road team themselves 105th away from home on Haslametrics and shooting well enough from three. They play faster than last year by about three possessions. Wisconsin’s weakness is allowing points allowing opponents to shoot 44% on the road. I can see both teams getting some points this game being that both offenses are better than they were last year and both defense. Wisconsin doesn’t defend the near proximity well ranking 84th in the nation and that is where Rutgers is going to score. Wisconsin defends will from three but Rutgers only ranks 322nd in attempted threes. Wisconsin away games are 6-3-1 to the over. I think this game goes over.
Over 132 – 2 stars
Louisville vs Wake Forest -8.5 O/U 144
This is the time of year that I like to bet on bubble teams and fade the step sisters of the poor. Let’s face it. Louisville is a lame duck program with a lame duck coach right now. They finally got a home win vs Clemson last weekend and now they are on the road without major motivation to face off against a very aggressive Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons are better than the Cardinal at every single facet of the game and they like to play fast. Wake Forest can’t afford to lose this game because they will fall back into the outside looking in. Kenpom has this spread a 11, Haslametrics has it at 11.5 and I have it at 12. Take the favorite here and watch for a potential blowout.
Wake Forest -8.5 – 1.5 stars
February 26th CBB Free Plays
In addition to these 2 free plays, I also have 5 plays reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members just over +49u since September 2021. Click here to become a premium member, and let’s have a breakout Saturday!
*CBB(1u): Rutgers -2.5(-110) vs Wisconsin–5 PM CT
At home this season, Rutgers has an 11 point win against Illinois, 19 point win against Michigan State, as well as close wins against Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State. I don’t know how much more clear it could be that this is their role. While Rutgers is coming off of two straight losses, each of those games came on the road against tournament-caliber teams(Purdue, Michigan); they put up respectable efforts in each game. The Scarlet Knights can leave some points on the offensive end of the floor, but they have a punishing defense that ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency and steps up consistently at home. I don’t mind playing against Wisconsin because I believe they’re due for some serious regression. The Badgers rank 6th out of 358 teams in KenPom’s “luck” meter and just aren’t as good as their 22-5 record would indicate. This will also be their second straight road game after narrowly squeaking by Minnesota earlier this week. Am I paying a premium by laying 2.5 here? Sure. But given how many times Rutgers has stepped up in this spot, I’m more than happy to lay the number here.
*CBB(1u): Texas Tech/TCU UNDER 131.5(-110)–5 PM CT
Texas Tech has climbed all the way up to #1 in defensive efficiency after allowing just 55 points to Texas and 42 points to Oklahoma in their last 2 games. While their defense is elite, the Red Raiders are probably worse offensively than that 50th offensive efficiency rating would lead you to believe. They’ve stepped up nicely in big games offensively, but in “trap” road games like these, they have not lived up to the bill. They put up just 55 against Oklahoma a few weeks ago as well as 51 at Kansas State earlier in conference play, losing each of those games by double digits. I certainly lean TCU here, but I can’t get on board with them offensively. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30% from 3, 66.7% from the free-throw line, and go at one of the slowest paces in the Big12. However, they do rank 29th in defensive efficiency and will certainly be hyped up in this step up spot at home. Under is the way to approach this game.
February 26th CBB Premium Plays
*CBB(1.5u): Marquette -7.5(-110) vs Butler–Noon PM CT
Marquette seemed to be getting a lot more buzz a few weeks ago, but you haven’t heard as much about them lately. They enter today’s game having lost 3 of their last 4, but all 3 of those losses came on the road. This is a team that’s set up very well metrics-wise; they rank in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and also run at a fast enough pace to really pummel teams that lack offensive firepower. Not only does Butler rank 185th in offensive efficiency, but they run at one of the slowest paces in the country. This is also Butler’s 2nd straight road game; they’ve been in this situation 3 times this year, and they’ve lost all 3 games by an average of 33 PPG. Marquette is the best bet for today. At 9 or above, this would still be a 1u play for me.
*CBB(1u): Duquesne TT UNDER 60(-115) @ Rhode Island–11:30 AM CT
I played Duquesne TT UNDER earlier this week, and my analysis is going to be the exact same as it was on Wednesday. Over their last 12 games, this team is averaging just 55.5 PPG and has reached the 60 point barrier just 3 times. They put up just 50 against Davidson the other night, and now they have to go on the road and face off with a defense that ranks 46th in defensive efficiency. If the oddsmakers keep putting out TT’s this high, we’ll continue to make them pay.
*CBB(1u): East Carolina ML(-125) vs Tulsa–3 PM CT
While these teams match up pretty evenly, ECU has the major travel advantage. This is their second straight home game, while Tulsa will be playing their 4th(!) straight road game. I like ECU at home typically, and I think 4 straight road games is a nearly impossible task for any team.
*CBB(1u): Auburn +3(-110) @ Tennessee–3 PM CT
I was expecting Tennessee to be favored, but only by 1, 1.5 points. Seeing this line over a point higher than I predicted puts me on the Tigers here. I have been adamant about my belief that Tennessee is an overvalued commodity, and I’m once again putting it to the test here. I know playing on the road in conference play is very tough, but I think Auburn got their wake-up call with a loss at Florida last week. I would also understand Tennessee love more if this was a bad spot for Auburn, but they played Ole Miss at home earlier this week and only have Mississippi State to look ahead to. I think the Tigers are legitimate, while Tennessee is not. I’m hoping that’s what we see play out in Knoxville later this afternoon.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Rhode Island 1H, Marquette, Virginia, LSU 1H(+143)–11:30 PM CT
Premiums, 2.26
Welp, good thing we ultimately avoided the Lakers huh? Looked like they were the right side for a second but, nope. That’s a team in real disarray, and the more they lose, the less LeBron will care.
Raptors shit the bed but a 2-1 night overall. Not a ton of value on today’s NBA card, in my opinion, but let’s unpack a few things. Appreciate all of your support as always – spread the good name of FarleyBets!
NBA Picks:
- Lean, Celtics -11: Not an official pick, but it’s really hard to not play on Boston in every game right now. They’re playing lights out on both sides of the court – maybe consider a team total on Boston or if they start slow, bet them live.
- Grizzlies moneyline (+105), 1 unit
- Listen, the Bulls are staying afloat and kudos to DeMar DeRozan, who just keeps on proving people wrong with his fantastic shooting and big 4th quarters. But the Grizzlies are a really good team, off a loss, and they should EAT in the paint today. Chicago is NOT skilled at stopping a good front court offense. I think the wrong side is favored.
- Grizzlies Team Total over 117.5, 2 units:
- Even if the Grizzlies lose, they should score a ton of points against a shallow Bulls’ defense.
- Nets/Bucks under 237, 1 unit
- This total is too high for me. The Bucks NEED to start playing better defense in these next 25 games before the playoffs, and they have the size, coaching, and skill to turn things around. The Nets remain without 2 of their big 3 in this contest. I have this at 231 and would play it down to 234.
CBB Picks:
- Purdue -5, 1 unit: We’re betting on Michigan State’s slide to continue – I see no signs that it won’t.
- Vermont -16, 1 unit: I know, gross, but this is a big time disparity in ratings and Vermont is at home.
- N. Iowa +2.5, 1 unit: Loyola shot ridiculously well in their first contest against N. Iowa and it was close – I think the home team can hang today.
- Gonzaga -10, 1.5 units: The Zags just have too much length and offensive advantages in this contest.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Rob Vinciletti: Saturday BIG 12 Comp play +NCAAB GAME OF THE YEAR info
NCAAB 7* 2022 Game Of The Year headlines long with the Total of the Month and a Platinum Supreme. In the NBA We have a 100% 2nd game back from the Break system that dates to 1995 along with an NHL Power Play and the EPL Soccer Total of the Month. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp play for Saturday is on TCU plus the 5-6 points at 6 eastern. TCU is at home here and has covered 5 of 6 off a loss and 11 of 16 vs winning teams. The Horned Frogs are ranked 45th in defense and 32nd in rebounding any may surprise a Texas Tech team that has failed to cover 5 of the last 6 as a road favorite add in the fact that they are headed into revenge in a series where the road teams has failed to cover the last 4 and the points become tempting. With TCU 5-1 as a home dog of 6 or less we will look their way today. On Saturday we are releasing the Highest Rated College Hoops Game of the Year headlining a huge Card that also has the Total of the Month. In The NBA The lead play is an undefeated system pertaining to teams in the 2nd game back from the break. We have a powerful NHL Power system play and in Soccer our Premier League Top play total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the College Comp play. Take the points with TCU. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Saturday Premier League Plays
We did it back on the positive side of the ball with our units. Although it is not huge, we are making progress. The swings in these games are insane. Tottenham with a massive upset last week, only turning around to lose to lower competition. I absolutely love the value to be had! Buckle up as we look to find more for this Saturday!
Current PL record: 4-5 +.90 Unit
Tottenham: ML, 2 Units (-120) and Over 3, 1 Unit (-103)
Tottenham is certainly a team that plays to its competition. We saw that this past week with a monumental upset of top seed MC, then following that up not finding the back of the net against the lower tier Burnley. Leeds on the other hand has been showing no pulse as of late. They have given up an astounding 13 goals in their last 3 matches, only capable of combating 2 themselves. The Spurs had a lot of opportunities against Burnley just were not putting the ball on target. The target will be found this match.
Brentford: ML, 1 Unit (+150)
Last time these two teams met it ended in a 3-3 draw. Brentford was +190 on the road and now +150 at home. What interest me in Brentford here is they are 0-1-7 in their last 8 against NC who is 3-2-3. Plain and simple Brentford has no right to be a slightly more favorite in this spot, which in turn raises a red flag for me. Draw is always in play when these type of teams meet. I like Brentford to get back in the win column at home. ML 1 unit.
Parlay MC and MU ML 2 Units (-147)
Creating value here with these two heavy favorites. I like for MC to bounce back to from this match after the upset at home against Tottenham. Do not believe a club like Everton has the staying power to draw let alone win a top tier match such as this, especially when MC is coming off a loss. MU has been taking care of business when it comes to playing the lower talent on the table. They have been finding the back of the net and are looking to revenge that 4-1 fluke that took place in November against Watford.
Burnley: ML (+315) and Draw (+240) 1 unit each
It is no secret Burnley is significantly better since the Weghorst signing. This team has significantly turned a corner. Since the signing they are 2-2-1, that loss coming to top talent LVP 1-0. I find myself having a fantastic opportunity to corner this game with great value playing both sides of the ML and Draw to come out with positive Units. CP last 5 has been the exact same 2-2-1…. This game will be close and I like more than anything a draw to ultimately be had… but not the least bit surprised if Burnley comes away with the upset.
