Monday card led by the Big Sky Conference Play of The Year backed with a Late season system, we also have our NHL Game of the Month. NCAAB Comp play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Northern Colorado. Game 888 at 8:00 eastern. The Bears fit a powerful late season system here and bounced back from a Loss at Idaho St with an overtime win on the road over a solid Weber St team. Now they get Idaho St at home in a big revenge spot for that loss on Thursday as a 7 point favorite. The Bears are ranked 31st in scoring and 12th in 3 point shooting. Idaho St bounced at home as a favorite last out losing to Sacramento. The Bengals are 329th in scoring and 253rd on defense. They have failed to cover 5 straight on Mondays, 7 of 9 on the road vs a home team that is .600 or better. Northern Colorado should coast to a cover here. On Monday the NHL Game Of the Month and the Big Sky Play of the Year headline. Jump on at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter and start the week fast. For the NCAAB Comp play. Go with Northern Colorado. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Putting down bets on these Thursday lines – let’s see how they move.
Celtics -3.5 * First game with Ben Simmons? Don’t care. If Durant is back (I don’t think he will be), this is still an advantageous line b/c he’ll be cold – coming back from an MCL tear is no joke.
Grizzlies/Wolves over 229.5 ** For obvious reasons, the pace and output of these two teams should feed into each other following the break. This line is WAY too low.
Warriors -6.5 ** Any questions? Steph is coming off that All Star performance, and the Warriors needed the break to get back to their old selves. I don’t care that Portland is at home – this is a bad team that needs young A. Simons to play exceptionally well to have a chance at winning. All Warriors for me.
Bad beat Sunday had us losing more – gross – but it’s a new week and the NBA returns in 3 days! Don’t hate that. Here are my plays today:
CBB Picks:
Ohio State -7 *
This line is a little inflated but this is a comeback game for the Buckeyes, at home, with a WAY more prolific offense than Indiana. Ohio State played one of their worst offensive games of the season against the Hoosiers in their first contest. Expect a locked in Ohio State team to win and cover.
Lean, Florida State -1
West Virginia +4 **
TCU/WVU under 133.5 *
West Virginia and TCU both play slow and they flex incredible defenses. This is their first meeting this season and I expect it to be a war. These two picks may be worth a parlay – no way is TCU 4 points better than the Mountaineers in my book, and a slow, low-scoring game narrative usually means the underdog will cover.
Loyola-Chicago -8.5 *
Potential let down spot for Loyola-Chicago, but they’re the WAY better team.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Happy Presidents Day everyone! We only have a few games happening, with the first matchup starting at 1:00 PM ET. I’ll breakdown that matchup between the Avalanche and Bruins and offer a few other plays on the day.
Colorado Avalanche @ Boston Bruins
Time: 1:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
Colorado Avalanche: 36-9-4, 1st Central (15-6-2 Away)
Boston Bruins: 28-17-4, 4th Atlantic (15-10-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-154
-165
-1.5 (+145)
o6.0 (-110)
Boston Bruins
+152
+140
+1.5 (-175)
u6.0 (-110)
Trends:
Avalanche are 7-0 in their last 7 road games.
Under is 6-1 in Avalanche last 7 overall.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.
Boston are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
Previous Matchups:
January 26, 2022: Boston 3 @ Colorado 4 OT
BOS (+166), COL (-186), O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
In this matchup Boston finished with 4.95 xGF compared to Colorado’s 3.55. Linus Ullmark had a -0.45 GSAx while Darcy Kuemper had a +1.85 GSAx.
Preview:
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have started off their four game road trip hot, winning their first two games. They defeated the Golden Knights 2-0 on Wednesday, then took down the Sabres 5-3 on Saturday. They’ll take on the Bruins today before heading to Detroit to face the Red Wings on Wednesday. Colorado is 8-1-1 in their last 10 and continue to increase the gap between them and the Blues in the Central Division.
Colorado ranks 2nd in terms of Goals For per game averaging 3.98. In their Last 10 they’ve been averaging 3.30 Goals For per game. They’ve faced some solid defense teams during that stretch but have had a relatively full lineup which is some what concerning. I understand every team goes through up and down stretches and I’m sure the Av’s will figure things out given the talent on their roster. During that stretch they’ve averaged roughly the same amount of Shots on Goal For per game, around 35, so again, I’m not so much worried about them finding their scoring tough. Even with their inability to capitalize on chances as of late, they still have the 3rd best Shooting % in the NHL. Their Power Play ranks 10th, converting at a rate of 23.7%.
If you’re looking to target some player props, I would start with Cale Makar who’s on a four game point streak tallying 6 assists during that stretch. Nathan MacKinnon is also on a four game point streak with two goals and two assists.
Defensively, Colorado has been much better in their last 10 with a Goals Against Average of 1.90 per game in their Last 10. On the season they average 2.8 Goals Against per game which ranks 12th. They allow an average of 30.6 Shots Against but have been averaging slightly below that number in their last 10 (29.60). Their Penalty Kill should have their work cut out for them tonight as they rank 21st and face a Bruins Power Play that ranks 5th. In Colorado’s last 10 games, their Penalty Kill has been much better with a 83.33% success rate.
Darcy Kuemper looks to be the starter tomorrow for Colorado. He currently ranks 8th in the NHL with a +15.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Kuemper has also recorded a shutout in two of his last three starts. He did start in their previous matchup against the Bruins, where he finished with a +1.95 GSAx.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins wrapped up a four game road trip on Saturday against the Ottawa Senators where they won 3-2 in OT thanks to David Pastrnak. Since returning from the All-Star break, Boston has struggled going 2-4. They’ve faced some pretty good teams during that stretch like Carolina and Pittsburgh but have dropped some games to inferior opponents. The Bruins take on the Colorado Avalanche today before starting a six game west coast road trip. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare on that trip giving the inconsistency they’re having as team right now, especially on offense.
On the year Boston ranks 21st in Goal For per game averaging 2.84. However, as I previously mentioned, they’ve been struggling as of late up front and are only averaging 1.80 Goals For in their last 10. They’ve been averaging about 3 shots less per game during that stretch compared to their season average of 35.0. The Bruins Power Play ranks 7th in the NHL converting at a rate of 24.8% but have a 16.67% conversion rate in their last 10. You can see it by the offensive metrics how much the Bruins are struggling offensively. They’ve been without Marchand who will return from his six game suspension on Thursday.
In terms of defense, Boston has also struggled in their last 10 with a 3.00 Goals Against average compared to their season long average of 2.84, ranking 21st. By no means is this a Boston Bruins team of old, that can shut teams down and win low scoring games. They’ve been giving up more shots against as of late which has hurt their young goaltender Swayman. Their Penalty Kill ranks 10th with a 83.3% success rate but, just like the Bruins, hasn’t been as great in their last few games.
Jeremey Swayman is expected to get the start for the Bruins tomorrow. He ranks 12th in terms of GSAx with a +9.7. In his last three games he’s recorded a shutout and has only allowed three goals against.
Pick:
COLORADO AVALANCHE TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (+110)
For me, this total is a stay away given how good Colorado’s defense has been and Boston’s lack of production up front recently. The Bruins have been struggling on defense and while Colorado hasn’t been them unusual selves up front, they’ll have plenty of chances today. Boston’s coming off a long road trip and will leave right after for another long road trip. This isn’t a great spot for them at all here. Swayman has been playing pretty well in his last few but hasn’t faced an offense with the firepower that the Avalanche possess.
Other Plays on the Night:
CAROLINA HURRICANES 60 MINUTE LINE (-135)
The Hurricanes are coming off a game yesterday, where they upset the Pittsburgh Penguins. Raanta started for them, so Anderson will get the start today. Both goalies have been solid for them this season but Anderson is the clear number 1. Carter Hart is expected to get the start for Philadelphia who’s struggled in his last few starts. They Flyers have struggled defensively in their last 10 and will face a high powered offense in Carolina. While the Hurricanes are averaging less GF in their last 10, their defense should be able to hold the Flyers up front.
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Don’t forget to sign up for a FREE sports handicapping class for NCAA Basketball on Tuesday February 22nd Taught by Kyle Hunter, Kiev O’Neil and a special guest Simon Gerzberg from Shot Quality Bets! 8:30PM ET 5:30PM PT! To sign up please Click Here!
Missouri State vs Northern Iowa -2 O/U 134
Missouri State has been quietly moving p in the rankings winning 9 out of their last 11 games. They are an amazing 54.9% effective FG and number 1 in the Missouri Valley conference on defense. They do not turn the ball over and are a well balance team.
Northern Iowa is a solid smaller team who actually beat Missouri State on the road back on January 8th. They have been a pretty good team themselves when their opponents are not hitting shots. They move the ball well but are weak shooting the 3 ball ranking 142nd in the nation in 3 point percentage. They are also weak in defending the 3 allowing 35.24% to go in. The biggest thing that I hate about Northern Iowa is that their defense as a whole allows 53% effective FG% ranking 308th in the nation. They only rank 8th in the conference allowing 52.7%. The biggest tell here for me is that Missouri State is great on the road ranking 2nd in away from home play on Haslametrics while UNI ranks 212th at home. I think that Missouri State gets some road revenge here.
Rough day at the office yesterday – what is it about these Saturday slates that throws us off? Something to examine on my end.
Either way, we march on to some opportunities on the board today. There isn’t much, but I like these few CBB games more than usual:
CBB Picks:
Temple/Cincinnati under 136 *
Two talented defenses should take over in a rivalry here.
Michigan/Wisconsin under 138 **
This has the feel of a tough, big 10 battle, and Wisconsin knows their best chances of winning are to stifle Michigan’s potent offense and play slow. Unless there’s a melee of fouls at the end, which there often is and it’s incredibly annoying, this under should hit.
Loyola MD -4.5 *
Loyola had their way with Lehigh in the first contest and they didn’t shoot well or play to their potential. I think they coast at home.
USC -6 **
Washington St. should be no match for a talented USC offense at home in a great spot. I got this at -5.5; I wouldn’t take it beyond -6.5.
Parlay: Loyola MD + USC + Cincinnati moneylines, 1 unit to win 1.74 units
NBA All Star Picks (these will NOT count towards my NBA season record – play at your own risk, but this is where I see value):
Luke Kennard to win 3-point shooting contest (+500)
Luka wins All-Star MVP (+1400)
Team LeBron over 163.5 (-115)
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Sunday card led by the 100% Horizon League Play of the Year in NCAAB Action along with an NHL Platinum Supreme Top play and Afternoon Soccer. NCAB Comp play below.
The NCAAB Comp play will be on Memphis at 3:00 PM Eastern. Memphis have Home revenge on Smu and come in on a 6 game win streak with their last loss in that Home SMU Game. SMU fits a play against angle for undefeated home dog with 10+ win on the season. SMU have failed to cover 10 of 12 off a defeat and 12 of 15 playing on Sunday. When they are a dog they have failed to cover 7 of 9. Look for Memphis to serve up some revenge here today. On Sunday The Horizon League Game of the Year and an NHL Platinum Supreme top play headline. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the NCAAB Comp play. Make i Memphis Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Kansas forward Jalen Wilson (10) gets in for a bucket against West Virginia during the first half on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022 at Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas vs West Virginia +5 O/U 146.5
The Big 12 has all good teams this year and seeing Kansas as only a 5 point favorite vs maybe the worst team in the big 12 is really something. Now to be honest, I do not know what to do with the side in this game. Kansas coach Bill Self and West Virginia coach Bob Huggins have a great respect for one another. What I do know is that both of these teams like to play fast. West Virginia runs the court ranking 1st in the conference at 69.5 possessions per game while Kansas is second at 68.2. Now that is saying something because these teams play in an overall slow paced conference. Neither defense is really that good with Kansas’s ranking 37th in all of basketball while West Virginia’s ranks dead last in the Big 12. Now West Virginia isn’t the best shooting team out there only ranking 297th in FG% but they at least get a lot of fast break points ranking 12th at Haslametrics at potential quick points off of breakaway steals. Kansas ranks 67th right there and number 1 in FG% in the Big 12. I think that the 1st half over is worth a look. I would take the whole game but there could be a blow out here if Kansas really steps it up second half.
Coming off a 1-0 night, I’m back at it with 5 CBB plays for today; 4 of those are reserved for premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.1% clip and have netted my members +45.2u since Sept. 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
*CBB(1u): Saint Louis +2.5(-110) @ Davidson–2:30 PM CT
Davidson might be 21-4 this season, but since January 8th, they have won by an average of just 5 PPG. In other words, this Wildcats team hasn’t exactly dominated the A-10 this year, and many of those wins have come against some truly horrible opponents given the conference is not very deep this season. Saint Louis is a legitimate threat to make a run and win the A-10 and should match up well with this overrated Davidson squad. While Davidson is very efficient offensively, they rank just 213th in defensive efficiency, a big reason why they can’t pull away from anybody. Saint Louis is a much more balanced team(48th offensive efficiency, 68th defensive efficiency) and enters this game undervalued after 2 recent losses to St Bonaventure. Prior to those games against the Bonnies, SLU had won their prior 6 games. The Billikens are due to make a statement on the road, and they are plenty capable of getting the job done today. I think Saint Louis wins this one outright, but I’ll take the 2.5 as insurance.
Virginia runs at the slowest pace in the country and only averages 63 PPG. Their defense is down this season, and in turn, they have not matched up well with high-powered offenses for the sheer reason that they can’t go toe-to-toe with them. Miami ranks 20th in offensive efficiency, averages 75 PPG, and enters this game off of two straight road wins and covers, one of the hardest things to do in this sport. This is also Virginia’s second straight road game after crumbling against Virginia Tech the other night. I would lay up to 3 with the ‘Canes in this one, but I feel better about taking the ML and only having to pay a 20 cent premium.
*CBB(1u): Kansas State +5(-110) @ Oklahoma State–1 PM CT
Oklahoma State is not eligible for postseason contention given they’re on probation, but even so, we’ve seen them give a lot of effort down the stretch of this season. They’ve lost 2 of 3 entering today, and even so, they’re playing much better than they actually are. The Cowboys play a good brand of defense, but they have slipped 10 spots in my defensive efficiency metrics over the past few weeks. Additionally, they shoot less than 30% from 3 and rank outside of the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. Kansas State is a team with their NCAA Tournament hopes still alive, and they have proven to be quite sneaky this season. They have road wins against Iowa State, TCU, and Texas, as well as a double-digit home win against Texas Tech. As someone who follows Big 12 Basketball very closely, this line jumped out to me. I’ll take the points with the ‘Cats.
*CBB(1u): Arkansas ML(-130) vs Tennessee–3 PM CT
Kiev and I discussed this game on his podcast this weekend, and our overall sentiment was that Tennessee is overvalued and Arkansas is undervalued. I know Tennessee just beat Kentucky at home and has been rolling as of late, but that might actually make this a worse spot for them. I know the Vols play great defense, but I am taking a stand in saying they are not as good offensively as they’ve shown recently. Arkansas enters today having won 10 of their last 11 with their only loss coming by 1 at Alabama. Bud Walton Arena is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and I think the home team gets it done today. I would bet this up to Ark -3, but getting the ML at only -130, I’d prefer going that route.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Baylor 1H, Wake Forest, Kentucky(+135)–11 AM CT
