We’re 37-31 +2.62 Units in the NFL as we pass the halfway point in the season. Getting killed on teasers, but straight plays have been very good to us so far. I’ve got one to share with y’all this weekend as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) play host to the New England Patriots (7-2) on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
Most books show current lines having Tampa -2.5 and the total sitting at 48. Moneyline has Tampa -145 with the Pats +125.
Tampa has been ravaged by injuries, but they are coming off the BYE week and should get a little healthier especially Baker Mayfield getting an extra week to nurse his oblique and knee issues. Bucky Irving and Chris Goodwin will still be out this week. Tampa has been just as injured in my opinion as San Francisco (except at QB) and been able to overcome it for the most part. The O-line has been the most trouble, and Detroit was able to exploit that in week 7 as they generated plenty of pressure, even when just rushing four which was their primary attack. This made things difficult on the injured Bucs receiving core as they struggled to get anything going downfield. They also struggled to generate a ton of movement against a Saints unit leading into the BYE. It’s very possible RT Luke Goedeke returns as he was a limited participant in practice so far this week. Guard Ben Bredeson also practiced which is a good sign they could both be in the lineup on Sunday. This would be the first game they have their projected starting offensive tackles for the season on the field at the same time which should be a huge boost for protection for Baker.
It looks like New England has found they’re starting QB for the future as Drake Maye has been very efficient thus far throwing 17 TDs to only 4 INTs with a 74.1 completion percentage. He has been able to spread the targets around and really opened up an offense that was a concern coming into the year. With that success however there have been some drive killing sacks the Maye has taken along the way. Only the Titans have taken more sacks this season the Drake Maye and the Pats. Tampa Bay is 6th in the NFL generating 3.1 sacks per contest.
Let’s break it down quick as to why I like the Bucs.
Getting healthy is reason #1, but competition played so far is another big reason to believe in the Bucs at this line under a field goal. Looking at competition can get you into trouble as match-ups are key, but there’s some glaring differences here that are too big to not take into account. The Pats have wins over the Dolphins (2-7), Carolina (5-4, and I don’t believe in that team at all even with their record), Bills (6-2), Saints (1-8), Titans (1-8), Browns (2-6), and Falcons (3-5). Losses coming against the Raiders (2-6) and Steelers (5-3). Of those teams only the Falcons and Bills have a scoring defense that ranks in the top half of the league, and only the Bills and Steelers have a scoring offense in the top half of the league. All seven of their other opponents rank 26th-32nd in scoring offense. Look at that again….7 opponents rank in the bottom seven of scoring offense in the league.
The Bucs schedule includes wins over the Falcons (3-5), Texans (3-5), Jets (1-7), Seahawks (6-2), 49ers (6-3) and Saints (1-8), with losses against the Eagles (6-2), and Lions (5-3). While the offensive fire power of their opponents isn’t much different, they’ve shown the ability to come out and score against some the top defenses in the league with only the game against the Lions being the real outlier.
With the Bucs getting healthier especially at OL, and Drake Maye’s inability to get rid of the ball quickly at time I really look for the Bucs defense to step up here and cause lots of problems for the young Patriots signal caller. Combine that with the Pats facing a decent offense for the first time in over a month and my position here is on Tampa Bay.
Official Play: Tampa Bay -2.5 2 Units.
