College Football Playoffs
(all times ET)
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19
No. 9 Alabama vs No. 8 Oklahoma +1.5 O/U 40.5
Location: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma)
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network ABC, ESPN
All Motivated:
Home: Oklahoma
Alabama Injuries:
- DE LT Overton
- RB Jam Miller
- TE Josh Cuevas
- DT Kelby Collins
Oklahoma Injuries:
- CB Gentry Williams (last played in Week 8)
- C Jake Maikkula (missed finale)
- LG Heath Ozaeta (last played in Week 9)
Net Yards Per Play: Oklahoma +.22
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Oklahoma’s offense is poor only ranking 94th in EPA to Alabama’s ranking 19th. Alabama’s pass offense is really their best method of success ranking 29th in pass EPA. The issue is that Oklahoma has the best defense in the SEC ranking 4th in defensive EPA. Both teams played a top 10 schedule.
Verdict: I think that Oklahoma’s offensive woes are based mainly on quarterback John Mateer’s injuries. Now that he should be fully healthy, I think that changes. Alabama has been leaking oil over the past four weeks or so, while Oklahoma has been heating up. The fact that they have home field advantage should do something for them. They also will have to have some success running the football as Alabama only ranks 54th in rush EPA. Oklahoma has the home field advantage and the better yards per play numbers. I am taking the sooners as Alabama will struggle here on the road.
Play: Oklahoma +1.5 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 20
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M -3.5 O/U 51.5
Location: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
Time: Noon
TV Network: ABC, ESPN
All Motivated
Home: Texas A&M
Miami Injuries
- CB Keionte Scott (stud; last played in Week 11)
- NT David Blay Jr. (last played in Week 11)
- CB OJ Frederique (last played Week 7)
Texas A&M Injuries
- RB Le’Veon Moss (last played in Week 7)
- S Bryce Anderson (last played in Week 7)
- LB Scooby Williams (last played in Week 9)
Net Yards Per Play: Miami +.29
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Looking at the numbers, Miami seems to have all of the advanced stats their way. They ranks 12th n success rate to A&M ranking 30th, the Cane’s rank 9th in defensive EPA to the Aggies ranking 55th. Texas A&M is a terrible 134th in defensive explosiveness. This team allows big plays. The only X-factor here for the Aggies is if Miami can stop quarterback Marcel Reed.
Verdict: I think that Miami is live here. They have had 3 weeks to prepare for the dual threat quarterback while A&M has had the easiest SEC schedule. The only reason for this line is the SEC bias, and I think that Miami comes in and shows the world that they are very deserving of the college football playoffs. A&M does have the coaching advantage, which is something to consider, but that is the only reason why this isn’t a max play. I also like the under some.
Play: Miami +3.5 – 2 stars
No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss -17.5 O/U 56.5
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Network: TNT
All Motivated
Home: Ole Miss
Tulane Injuries
- WR Bryce Bohanon
Ole Miss Injuries
- CB Antonio Kite (last played in Week 12)
Ole Miss Coaching Changes
Lane Kiffin left to take the LSU job and will not be with the team during the College Football Playoff. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has taken over as the new head coach. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will also stay with the team.
Net Yards Per Play: Ole Miss +.79
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the fact that Tulane played in an inferior conference and has already played at Ole Miss and lost by double digits. Ole Miss should have plenty of success running and passing the football with Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss ranks 14th in offensive EPA to Tulane ranking 57th on defense. If there is a path, Tulane needs to run the ball, but the the Green Wave only ranks 75th in rush EPA to the Rebels ranking 112th in opponent rush EPA.
Verdict: How nice that the committee set this up for a coachless Ole Miss team and gave A&M Miami. This game could get ugly as we have seen it before. If Tulane is down, they will have some serious problems trying to play catchup as Ole Miss ranks 12th in opponent pass EPA. I will say that there is a lot of variance in this game being that Lane Kiffen left for LSU. As of right now, I have a strong lean to Ole Miss, but will wait.
Play: Lean Ole Miss -17.5
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon -21 O/U 50.5
Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: TNT
All Motivated
Home: Oregon
James Madison Injuries
- DT Immanuel Bush (missed conference title game)
Oregon Injuries
- WR Dakorien Moore (last played in Week 9) but practiced this week.
- WR Gary Bryant Jr. (last played in Week 11) but practiced this week.
Net Yards Per Play: Oregon +.59
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Another huge discrepancy in strength of schedule with Oregon’s ranking 17th to James Madison’s ranking 105th. The Ducks have a blazing offense ranking 2nd in EPA to the Duke’s ranking 34th on offense. The Ducks have the biggest net yards per play out of any college football team.
Verdict: This could be a serious ass kicking as the Ducks are the much more talented and skilled team. I also have to imagine that the guys remember their playoff loss to Ohio State from 2024 and will be very motivated to win this game. I like both the full game number and the 1st half, but I will only pick one.
Play: Oregon 1st half -11.5 – 2 stars
College Bowls Dec 18th – Dec 24th
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl – Missouri State vs. Arkansas State -1.5 O/U 54.5
Location: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN2
Missouri State’s Motivation: High – They made a bowl game in their first year of FBS play.
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Probably just happy to be there.
Home: I could see Missouri State fans showing up here so I give them 1 point.
Missouri State Transfer Portal
- Starting C Cash Hudson
Missouri State Injuries
- DT Ryan Williams (last played in Week 12)
- DE Mitchell Toney (last played in Week 12)
Arkansas State Injuries
- LG Tristian Smith (stud; last played in Week 10)
Net Yards Per Play: Missouri State +1.13
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these defenses are pretty bad ranking in the bottom 40 in yards per play and success rate. Both offenses rank in the top 29 in passing play percentage as they love to air out the ball. Arkansas State ranks 10th in pace of play while Missouri State ranks 90th.
Verdict: I honestly do not see how either team stops each other on defense. Both teams struggle to stop anything while this game is being played at the Ford Center which is a fast track in Texas. No weather will mess this game up. I love the over here.
Play: Over 54.5 – 2 stars
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine – Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan -3.5 O/U 49.5
Location: Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Time: 11 a.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Kennesaw State’s Motivation: High – Won the conference in their second year and they get to play in their first bowl game.
Western Michigan’s Motivation: Medium Low – They won the MAC and probably will just use this to celebrate.
Home: None, as I could see a few fans from both. Conway still over 350 miles away from Atlanta.
Kennesaw State Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Caleb Offord
Kennesaw State Transfer Portal
- All-CUSA CB JeRico Washington (plans to play in bowl game)
Kennesaw State Injuries
- S Antonio Stevens (barely played final three games)
- LB Garland Benyard (last played in Week 9)
Western Michigan Potential Opt-Outs
- DE Nadame Tucker
Net Yards Per Play: Even both at about +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these teams are pretty equal from my perspective. The Owls has the Better offense while the Broncos have the better defense. Some think that the MAC is better than conference USA, but I think that they are pretty close to equal.
Verdict: I honestly think that the motivation lies with the Owls here. As equal teams, how can I not take the three points.
Play: Kennesaw State +3.5 – 2 stars
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl – Memphis vs. NC State -4.5 O/U 57.5
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Memphis Motivation: Low – They lost their coach to Arkansas, and had higher hopes of playoffs.
NC State’s Motivation: Medium – This team got better as the season went on. They will show up here.
Home: None
Memphis Injuries
- RT Travis Burke (stud; missed finale)
- CB Jaidyn Denis (last played in Week 10)
- CB Chauncey Logan (last played in Week 11; hurt most of year)
- QB Brendon Lewis was a bit banged up to end the year
Memphis Coaching Changes
Head coach Ryan Silverfield left to take the Arkansas job. DB coach Reggie Howard will serve as the interim for the bowl game following the hire of new head coach Charles Huff from Southern Miss.
NC State Potential Opt-Outs
- TE Justin Joly
- RB Hollywood Smothers
- DT Brandon Cleveland
- CB Devon Marshall
- LT Jacarrius Peak
NC State Injuries
- LG Kamen Smith (last played in Week 12)
- CB Jamel Johnson (last played in Week 12)
Net Yards Per Play: Memphis +.81
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Say what you want about the ACC, but nothing is more key than a strength of schedule ranking 94th for Memphis and 30th for NC State. It’s hard to differentiate stats here, so we have to go to motivation and who is playing in this game.
Verdict: This situation is just too weird for Memphis. They wanted to make the playoffs and blew it vs Tulane. They also lost their coach to Arkansas while the Interim won’t even be the guy for the next season. As long as everyone stays, this should be a statement game for the Wolfpack.
Play: NC State -4.5 – 2 stars
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Washington State vs. Utah State -2.5 O/U 52.5
Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
time: 2 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Washington State’s motivation: Medium Low – Not the greatest destination, but they will want to win against a NEW Pac-12 conference opponent. Interim coach Jesse Bobbitt will try and get them going.
Utah State’s Motivation: Medium – Shitty location, yet they get get a new Pac-12 opponent.
Home: None
Washington State Transfer Portal
- CB Kenny Worthy (384 snaps)
- LB Anthony Palano (382 snaps)
- Backup QB Jaxson Potter (164 snaps)
- WR Tony Freeman (557 yards, 3 TDs)
Palano started early in season, but saw his playing time decrease as the year progressed due to tackling issues.
Washington State Injuries
- C Brock Dieu (missed finale)
- WR Carter Pabst (last played in Week 13)
Washington State Coaching Changes
Jimmy Rogers left to take the head coach position at Iowa State. He will not stay with the team for the bowl, which means there is an increased chance of opt-outs, portal movement and other coaches going with him.
DC Jesse Bobbit will serve as the interim head coach.
Utah State Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Braden Pegan (767 snaps)
Utah State Injuries
- TE Broc Lane (missed finale)
Net Yards Per Play: Utah State +.59
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Utah State clearly has the better offense, but Washington State definitely has the better defense ranking 46th in opponent EPA while Utah State ranks 93rd. Washington State has had the harder and somewhat weirder schedule. Washington state ranks 3rd in defensive explosiveness which should counteract Utah State ranking 19th in explosiveness.
Verdict: I think that more and more Cougars could possibly sit out this game or transfer. I just can’t trust a play this early in the game, but at the current numbers, I would lean WASU.
Play: Lean WASU +2.5
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl – Toledo vs. Louisville -6.5 O/U 44.5
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
Time: 2 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Toledo’s Motivation: Medium Low – This team at least gets a power four school, but no coach yet and a lot of question marks.
Louisville’s Motivation: Low – As a former college student, I vote to party over prepping for this weak ass bowl game.
Home: None
Toledo Transfer Portal
- DE Malachi Davis (442 snaps)
Toledo Potential Opt-Outs
- S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (headed to Senior Bowl)
- CB Avery Smith
- CB Andre Fuller
- S Nasir Bowers
- RB Chip Trayanum
- WR Junior Vandeross III
Toledo Injuries
- LG Carter Fouty
Toledo Coaching Changes
Jason Candle took the UConn opening, so QB coach Robert Weiner will serve as interim.
Louisville Potential Opt-Outs
- QB Miller Moss
- WR Chris Bell
- RB Isaac Brown
- DE Clev Lubin
Louisville Injuries
- WR Chris Bell
- RB Isaac Brown
- RB Keyjuan Brown
- RB Duke Watson
- S Antonio Watts
- LB Stanquan Clark
New Orleans Bowl – Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss +5.5 O/U 57.5
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time: 5:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium – Maybe better to hit Bourbon Street, but these kids from bourbon-land can play on a hangover.
Southern Miss’s Motivation: Medium Low – They just lost their coach, but might try and show up anyways.
Home: Southern Miss is only 111 miles away. Give them 2.5 points here.
Western Kentucky Transfer Portal
- CB Dylan Flowers (358 snaps)
- RB La’Vell Wright
Western Kentucky Injuries
None worth noting.
Southern Miss Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Josh Moten
Southern Miss Injuries
- LT Blake Bustard
Southern Miss Coaching Changes
Charles Huff took the Memphis job, which does increase the chance of opt-outs. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will serve as the interim coach and also take over as the head coach next season.
Net Yards Per Play: Southern Miss +.28
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Western Kentucky’s defense is the best unit on the field ranking 19th in success rate and 43rd in EPA. Neither team had too hard of a schedule.
Verdict: I think that this line assumes more opt outs for Southern Miss as their coach Charlie Huff puts together his team in Memphis. In saying that, if there isn’t, there will be value on the +5.5
Play: Lean Southern Miss +5.5
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl – UNLV vs. Ohio +6.5 O/U 65.5
Location: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
UNLV’s Motivation: Medium – This team probably wanted more, but they will be about business in Frisco.
Ohio’s Motivation: Medium – No real reason to not try as coach is on leave. I think Ohio shows up tough for the interim coach John Hauser.
Home: None
UNLV Injuries
- TE Var’Keyes Gumms (last played in Week 12)
Ohio Injuries
- LB Michael Molnar (last played in Week 9)
Ohio Coaching Changes
Head coach Brian Smith is on leave, leaving DC John Hauser to take over as interim.
Net Yards Per Play: UNLV +.25
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: UNLV’s defense is clearly the weak point of this team ranking 126th in yards per play. In saying that, this offense has shown enough to outscore almost every opponent not named Boise State. UNLV’s offense is the best unit on the field ranking 15th in EPA. The question is if they can stop Ohio.
Verdict: Ohio was a solid team who played well on offense in the MAC, yet when it came down to crunch time, this team blew games against Ball State and Western Michigan. The whole coach on leave doesn’t breed much confidence to me. My number is UNLV -4, so I lean Ohio at this time. Gonna wait this out some too see what happens with more potential opt outs.
Play: Lean Ohio +6.5
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl – California vs. Hawaii +1.5 O/U 54.5
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Hawaii’s Motivation: High – They will be happy to play a power 4 team at home.
Cal’s Motivation: Medium High – Cal’s quarterback JKS is from Hawaii, so I think the team rallies behind him.
Home: Hawaii’s home stadium, give them 3 full points.
Cal Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Hezekiah Masses
- LB Cade Uluave
It appears QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is staying at Cal next season, so I’d expect him to play.
Cal Injuries
- RG Sioape Vatikani
- TE Mason Mini
- WR Jordan King
- WR Mark Hamper
- DB Cam Sidney
Cal Coaching Changes
Head coach Justin Wilcox was fired at the end of the season. OC Nick Rolovich took over and will continue to serve as the interim for the bowl in his return to the island. Oregon DC Tosh Lupoi will take over as head coach next season.
Hawaii Transfer Portal
- WR Jackson Harris (49 catches for 963 yards and 12 TDs)
Hawaii Injuries
- LB Jamih Otis
- CB Virdel Edwards II
- WR Nick Cenacle
Other Notes: This will be a home game for Hawaii.
Net Yards Per Play: Hawaii +.44
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Well Cal played a much harder schedule ranking 60th on Sagarin to Hawaii’s ranking 112th. The funny thing about these two teams is that they are mirror images of each other. Both quarterbacks are from Hawaii, both teams pass the ball at a very high frequency ranking 8th for Cal and 5th for Hawaii in all of college football, and both teams absolutely suck at running the football.
Verdict: I really thought that I was going to take the over year, but both teams are solid at defending the pass. Both teams are also quite average in Tempo and I expect a little bit of defense this game as both teams are mid-range in defensive success rate. At this number, I have to lean Cal. This team showed some spirit without coach Wilcox in knocking SMU out of the ACC championship game. JKS is also going to have a lot of fans here cheering them on.
Play: Strong lean to Cal -1.5
