We have a great show for you today! Lou Finocchiaro @GameLou from the Sneak Teep podcast and @VSINLIVE is back to break down a huge UFC 314 event! First, Kiev talks NFL draft! We rank the top 15 quarterback prospects in the draft as well as a Best Bet! We hit our best bet last year as well! Next, Lou comes on and the guys get right into UFC 314! We talk undercard, main event and sleepers with some Free Plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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TEMPE, AZ - FEBRUARY 25: Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels smiles during the Spring Training game against the Cincinnati Reds at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 25, 2020 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Masterpress/Getty Images)
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We have a great show for you today! Two golf heavyweights in Patrick Gates @GatorBetting & Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer come back to break down an amazing weekend of the Masters! First, Kiev recaps the NCAA tournament with some harsh thoughts. Next, Brady and Patrick come on and the guys get right into the Masters! What is the course information? What are the key handicapping statistics that we look for in this course? Who are the favorites and sleepers? We also have some Free Plays that correlate well with the event! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The band WhiteSnake said it best. Here I go again. Football is often described as a game of inches, where being off by even one can determine the difference between victory and defeat in a league with limited opportunities. The unique shape of the football itself introduces a degree of unpredictability, influencing situations like field position during punts or the way the ball spins during field goals. Additionally, randomness plays a role in the timing of points scored, which can impact a team’s final win-loss record. Let’s face it, luck often becomes a deciding factor in the football season, and the best teams don’t always beat the worst ones. Take September 15th of last year, for example, when the Raiders defeated the Ravens 26-23. How does this happen?
As NFL analysts and sports bettors, we strive to develop reliable methods to predict next year’s football outcomes with greater accuracy. While wins and losses provide a glimpse, they rarely offer the full picture or serve as solid indicators of a team’s future success. By identifying scientific approaches that correlate past performance with future outcomes, we not only deepen our understanding but also enhance our profitability. Today, we’ll explore the 2024 Pythagorean win total calculation as a predictive tool for the 2025 NFL season.
Can an NFL team outscore its opponents and still finish with a losing record? Or score fewer points than it allows yet end up with a winning record? Surprisingly, both scenarios are entirely possible and occur annually. In 2019, for instance, the Houston Texans scored 378 points but allowed 399, managing to win 10 games. Meanwhile, the Chargers scored 337 points, narrowly conceding 345, yet only secured five victories.
Teams often rack up points in blowouts, only to lose tightly contested games—a phenomenon that highlights the need to evaluate their performance beyond the surface level. By analyzing data points such as total points scored and total points allowed, we gain a more accurate understanding of a team’s expected performance compared to its actual results. This approach, known as the Pythagorean win total method, helps us uncover discrepancies and project realistic expectations for the next season.
According to the 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team leading the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were claimed by the team with the most actual victories.” The statistical significance of the Pythagorean wins theorem has persisted ever since.
The Pythagorean theorem, expressed as a^2 + b^2 = c^2, calculates the hypotenuse of a right triangle (c) or, for our purposes, the expected relationship between its sides. Imagine points scored as (a) and points allowed as (b), where (c) is derived from the relationship between aa and (b) using their squared values. By understanding the ratio a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2), we can predict the percentage of games won, multiplied by the total number of games. Using a diagram, if the triangle appears tall and thin, it signifies a team scoring significantly more points than it allows. Conversely, a short and long triangle highlights a team giving up far more points than it scores.
You might wonder—why not simply use points scored divided by total points as the basis for predictions? The answer is straightforward: it wouldn’t provide accurate results. For instance, if a team scores 75% of the total points and allows just 25%, would you expect them to win 75% of their games? Absolutely not. That level of performance—like averaging 30 points per game offensively while allowing just 10 points defensively—would suggest an even higher winning percentage. Case in point: the 16-0 New England Patriots of 2007. They scored 68.3% of the total points (averaging 36.8 on offense while giving up 17.1 on defense) and far exceeded 12 wins. Their Pythagorean win total, at 13.76, aligns much more closely with their exceptional season.
But wait—there’s more to consider. The Pythagorean equation has limitations if adjustments aren’t made. It tends to bunch teams toward the middle, even when actual outcomes deviate more dramatically from the mean. To account for these variations, adjustments must reflect the specific nuances of each sport—and in this case, football. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept further, suggesting that each team’s exponent should vary based on their points scored.
According to Aaron Schatz of football outsiders, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). Much of this randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck itself. The average exponent comes to 2.46.
One thing that I found that we can somewhat account for is turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Whether the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. Last season, the Bills had the best turnover ratio of +24 while the Browns had the worst at -22. Big shocker right? Now it is well known that turnovers are worth close to about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random, but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Indianapolis is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The Pittsburgh Steelers are definitely good with holding on to the football while the Ravens who have been dominant in that division almost always turns out positive over the last five years. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number from 4 to 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2024 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. In essence, a negative turnover ratio helps those sloppier teams with better expected wins as they punish the cleaner teams that had a high positive turnover margin with lower expected wins due to the luck factor that I have applied. Even though some teams tend to take care of the ball more doesn’t mean that there isn’t some luck to the outliers and visa versa. One thing that I will add to this is that fumble luck is much less predictable than interceptions and the 2024 Raiders were an outlier here of -10 fumbles which is something that you should account for separately when predicting your 2025 numbers. Please see our chart below for our actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected win totals.
Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results from last year’s 17 game schedule with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2023 season. Here are the five outliers on each side:
Over-achievers:
Kansas City Chiefs: The zebra loving Chiefs had 9.86 expected wins compared to their 15 actual wins. A -5.14 difference. They were certainly the luckiest team in the NFL for the 2024 season, and maybe the luckiest team that I have ever tracked. The Chiefs won almost all of their one score games. Mahomes is clutch but flags and no-calls are clutcher (I made up an adverb).
Minnesota Vikings: Somehow the Vikings always make the over or under-achievers list every single year. The Queens had had only 10.56 expected wins compared to their 14 actual wins last year. A -3.44 difference. Kevin O’Connell is such a fantastic coach, that people actually started to think that QB Sam Darnold is good! I think that the Seahawks fell for that this year.
LA Rams: The Rams had expected wins of 7.64 compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A -2.36 difference. This is what a great coach and a great quarterback can get you. It also helps that the 49ers were a shell of themselves last season.
Houston Texans: The Texans had expected wins of 7.94 compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A -2.06 difference. The Texans scored the same amount of total points last season as they have given up. I will say that they at least did this on a 1st place schedule and injuries. Can DeMeco Ryans keep this team afloat in the easiest division in football?
Detroit Lions: The Lions had expected wins of 13.02 compared to their 15 actual wins last year. A -1.98 difference. So even though this team overachieved, they still statistically had the most Pythagorean wins compared to any other team. Will the loss of OC Ben Johnson to the Bears factor in for 2025?
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs under 11.5 wins -110 – 1 star
Under-achievers:
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had expected wins of 5.42 compared to their 3 actual wins last year. A +2.42 difference. Tennessee was 2-6 in one score games. They did not have a good quarterback as well all know so well, but this team choked away many games that they could have won based on their defense. Let’s see if they pick the right quarterback in this year’s draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags had expected wins of 6.18 compared to their pathetic 4 actual wins from last season. A +2.18 difference. The Jaguars had distain for their coach, but they do have a lot of pieces for the 2025-2026 season as their season win total is a huge 7.5. Liam Coen stays in Florida to try and fix this debacle. I think that this team quietly has a ton of upside.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders had expected wins of 8.68 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.95 difference. Really no surprise to see the Raiders on this list. A new coach, and new quarterback really adds a lot of variance to the next season. I am sure Pete Carrol will have his guys ready when facing the Seahawks.
NY Giants: The G-men had expected wins of 4.94 compared to their 3 actual wins from last season. At least this team was still statistically better than the Panthers. I chuckled some at the fan base reaction when they beat the Colts in week 17 to ruin their top draft pick. The good news is that there are no perfect quarterbacks in this draft anyways and Russell Wilson will try and save Tony DaBoll’s job. I do not see that happening with the rough schedule.
New Orleans Saints: The Aint’s had expected wins of 6.93 compared to 5 adjusted wins. A +1.93 difference. This team tricked me when they stared the season off beating the Cowboys in Dallas. Little did I realize how bad Dallas actually sucked last season. Derek Carr was of course injured half way through, but as the rock band “The Who” said it best. We won’t get fooled again.
In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Aiden O’Connell and Trevor Lawrence. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2024 season, and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.
Brian Harman captured the Valero Texas Open last week, earning his fourth career PGA TOUR victory and his first win of the 2025 season. It marked his first triumph since the 2023 Open Championship. But this win carried more emotional weight than most.
Harman was playing with a heavy heart, as a close family friend, Cathy Dowdy, remains in a coma after heroically saving Harman’s 6-year-old son from a rip current during a family vacation in Ponte Vedra Beach last October. “Just playing with a heavy heart today. Ms. Cathy, she’s not doing so good,” Harman said. “Just thinking about her all day.”
Our selection, Ryan Gerard (75-1), finished solo second — falling just short of giving us back-to-back outright winners after Min Woo Lee (35-1) cashed the week before at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
Hello Friends, and welcome to the best week of the year, The Masters. Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started.
Scottie Scheffler: Aiming for Back-to-Back Masters Glory
Scottie Scheffler has his sights set on a rare piece of Masters history—becoming just the fourth player ever to win back-to-back titles at Augusta National. The last to accomplish the feat was Tiger Woods in 2002 and 2003. Before him, only Jack Nicklaus (1965–66) and Nick Faldo (1989–90) managed to successfully defend their green jacket. Now, Scheffler looks to join that elite trio with a win this week.
Heading into the 2024 Masters, Scheffler was in unstoppable form, with two wins already under his belt (THE PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational) and four top 10 finishes. After capturing his first Masters title in 2024, Scheffler went on to win six more times, finishing the year with an impressive total of nine PGA Tour victories.
However, his 2025 season has been anything but conventional. A finger injury sustained while cooking Christmas dinner delayed his start to the year, and he missed several early events. Scheffler made his season debut in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and since then, he’s been in excellent form, never finishing worse than T25 in his six starts. Along the way, he secured three top-10 finishes, including a T3 at the Genesis Invitational and his best result of the year—a T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
With five Masters appearances to his name, Scheffler has claimed two victories (2022, 2024) and has never finished outside the top 20, solidifying his status as the deserving favorite heading into this week.
Masters champions have the unique privilege of inviting a guest to play the Sunday before the Masters.
Rory McIlroy: Chasing the Elusive Career Grand Slam
Rory McIlroy is gearing up for his seventeenth trip to Augusta National, with his eyes set on achieving the elusive career Grand Slam. Despite coming close multiple times, he has yet to slip into the coveted green jacket. His best Masters finish came three years ago when he finished second, just three shots behind Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy’s last Major Championship victory was in 2014 when he captured both The Open Championship and the PGA Championship. Last year, at Pinehurst #2 in the U.S. Open, Rory nearly added another Major to his resume, but a missed putt on the 18th, resulting in a bogey, cost him the title as he fell one stroke short to Bryson DeChambeau.
Heading into this week’s Masters, McIlroy is in some of the best form of his career. He’s already notched two wins this season, triumphing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and THE PLAYERS Championship. Just two weeks ago, he finished T5 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, further proving his readiness for Augusta.
However, there is some concern regarding his health. After completing his final round at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, McIlroy revealed he was dealing with some elbow pain, a condition to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
Top Players Still Chasing Their First Major
Several top-ranked players are still in search of their first Major championship victory. Ludvig Åberg, currently ranked No. 5 in the world, had a standout performance at the 2024 Masters in his debut, finishing as the runner-up. Russell Henley, ranked No. 7, is also hunting for his first Major. He’s had strong showings recently, including a 5th-place finish at the 2023 Open Championship and a T7 at the U.S. Open. His best Masters finish came in 2023 when he placed T3.
Viktor Hovland, ranked No. 8, is another player seeking his first Major win. After claiming victory at the 2025 Valspar Championship, Hovland is riding a wave of confidence, having bounced back from three consecutive missed cuts. His best Major performance came in 2023 at Oak Hill, where he finished as the runner-up at the PGA Championship. At Augusta, his best result came last year with a T7 finish.
Debutants to Watch
This year’s field features several exciting debutants, each entering Augusta with fresh victories under their belts. Joe Highsmith, winner of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, Thomas Detry, who triumphed at the WM Phoenix Open, Brian Campbell, the Mexico Open champion, and Laurie Canter, who claimed the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship on the DP World Tour, are all making their first Masters appearance. However, they face a steep challenge, as no debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller’s victory in 1979.
Nicolai & Rasmus Højgaard Set to Make Masters History
For the first time in Masters history, twin brothers will tee it up together at Augusta National. Nicolai Højgaard, a three-time winner on the DP World Tour and member of both the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR, received a special invitation from Augusta National Chairman Fred Ridley to compete in the 2025 tournament. He made an impression in his tournament debut last year with a strong T16 finish.
Joining him is his twin brother, Rasmus Højgaard, who earned his spot by finishing inside the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking at the end of 2024. Rasmus will be making his Masters Tournament debut this week.
Bernhard Langer Bids Farewell to Augusta
An icon’s final walk, carried by family. Bernhard Langer’s 41st and final appearance, with his son Jason by his side. A bag that holds the weight of history—2 victories, 41 appearances, and a lifetime of greatness.#BernhardLanger#41Collection#41stAndFinalpic.twitter.com/CzIxoedC81
Two-time Masters champion Bernhard Langer (1985, 1993) is set to make his 41st—and final—appearance at Augusta National this week. The 67-year-old German originally planned to say goodbye to the Masters last year, but a torn Achilles tendon forced him to miss the 2024 tournament. Now fully recovered, Langer returns to take a final bow at the iconic venue where he’s created so many memorable moments over the decades.
Ángel Cabrera’s Return to the Masters
🚨🌺⛳️ #REGRETS — 2009 Masters Champion Angel Cabrera reflects on his time behind bars as he prepares to tee it up at Augusta (via @DailyMailUK)
“I was sleeping on some pieces of cloth on a bed that was basically cement. I was locked in with someone else, so we were two locked… pic.twitter.com/6jJsqCImMI
Ángel Cabrera, one of six past senior champions in this year’s field, will return to the Masters for the first time since 2019. The 2009 Masters champion had been convicted for domestic assault and intimidation of two former partners, which led to a 30-month prison sentence in Brazil and Argentina. He was released in August 2023. Cabrera was unable to compete in the 2024 Masters due to a visa issue but is set to play in the 2025 tournament. After his conviction in 2021, the PGA Tour suspended Cabrera, but he was reinstated following his release from prison.
Last week, he captured a victory at the James Hardie Invitational on the PGA TOUR Champions. This season, he has made four other starts—three on the PGA TOUR Champions and one on PGA TOUR Latinoamérica—showcasing his continued competitiveness across multiple tours.
Tiger Woods to Miss the 2025 Masters
Tiger Woods will not tee it up at Augusta National this year, officially ruling himself out of the 2025 Masters Tournament. The five-time Masters champion underwent surgery in March to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon, an injury that has kept him out of competition.
On April 1, Woods briefly sparked excitement with a social media post implying a return for this year’s Masters, but it was later revealed to be an April Fool’s joke. He confirmed he’s still in recovery and not yet ready to return to tournament play.
Woods’ last victory at Augusta came in 2019, marking one of the most memorable comebacks in golf history.
Caddie Changes Heading Into Augusta
Two notable caddie changes have made headlines ahead of this year’s Masters.
Legendary caddie Billy Foster and Matt Fitzpatrick have split. Was on Fitz's bag for 6 years, including 2022 U.S. Open win—Foster's first major win after caddying for Seve, Westwood, Darren Clarke, others.
Matt Fitzpatrick has split with longtime caddie Billy Foster, ending a successful six-year partnership that included a memorable win at the 2022 U.S. Open. The decision comes amid a slow start to Fitzpatrick’s 2025 season, where he has yet to post a top-20 finish in six PGA TOUR starts.
JUST IN: Max Homa and caddie Joe Greiner have parted ways.
“Joe and I made memories for a lifetime and can’t be more thankful for all the hard work. We have parted ways and it will be sad to see him go. I’ll always be grateful to have walked the fairways with one of my best… pic.twitter.com/p869FnVXeL
Max Homa has also made a significant change on the bag, parting ways with longtime caddie Joe Greiner, who had been with him since his college days. Homa had Bill Harke on the bag for last week’s Valero Texas Open, though it remains to be seen if that pairing continues at Augusta. Like Fitzpatrick, Homa has struggled of late, missing the cut in each of his last five PGA TOUR appearances.
Hurricane Helene Leaves Its Mark on Augusta National
⛳🌀👀 Before-and-after images from our photo library show some of Hurricane Helene's effects on Augusta National Golf Club.
In September, Hurricane Helene swept through Augusta with winds reaching 82 mph, leaving a trail of destruction—including the loss of over 1,000 trees on the sacred grounds of Augusta National. The Category 1 storm knocked out power for days and caused significant damage in the area, destroying nearly 400 homes and severely damaging 3,000 more.
One thing you might notice at The Masters this year is less trees. Hurricane Helene in late September devastated Augusta and the golf course was not spared. Behind the 11th is an example. pic.twitter.com/mNjbXElYJI
In the months since, Augusta National has worked tirelessly to restore the course to its world-renowned condition. Many of the fallen trees have been replaced, though some of the new plantings are noticeably smaller. Certain areas—like the space between the first and ninth fairways, and the right side of the 11th hole—now appear more open due to trees not being replaced. While the familiar trio of trees on the right side of the 11th fairway still stands, the surrounding complex is sparser.
Notably, the storm has subtly altered sightlines. From the 10th tee and around holes 11 and 12, glimpses of the bordering Augusta Country Club are now visible above the younger trees—something rarely seen in the past.
Despite these changes, Augusta National Chairman Fred Ridley assured the golf world that the course is in “spectacular condition.” However, the subtle environmental shifts—especially the change in tree coverage—may lead to unexpected wind patterns, adding another layer of difficulty to an already demanding layout. As always, Augusta remains a true test—but now, with a slightly different twist.
The Masters is truly one of the most captivating spectacles in sports. With its pristine course, vibrant azaleas in full bloom, and the soothing sounds of birdsong, it enchants both avid golf fans and casual viewers alike. Though it may not have the centuries-long history of The Open Championship, The Masters offers a distinct charm and allure that makes it one of the most unique and prestigious tournaments in the world.
In addition to traditional TV coverage, select broadcasts will be available for streaming on the official Masters website. To watch live and access featured groups or holes, click the link. For the complete broadcast schedule for this week’s Masters, follow this full schedule link.
Rain has impacted 49 of the 88 Masters Tournaments. Eight days of play have been postponed over the years, though on four occasions—1936, 1938, 1939, and 2003—tournament officials made up for lost time by scheduling 36 holes in a single day. The most recent Monday finish due to weather occurred in 1983.
Course/ Tournament History:
The Origins of Augusta National
In 1930, Bobby Jones purchased the land that would become Augusta National Golf Club and enlisted renowned course architect Alister MacKenzie to bring his vision to life. After two years of careful design and construction, the course officially opened for play. The first Masters Tournament—then known as the Augusta National Invitational—was held in 1934 and won by Horton Smith. Since then, the tournament has only been interrupted once, from 1943 to 1945, due to World War II. In 2020, the Masters was postponed to November because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Botanical Roots: The Naming of the Holes
Augusta National was built on the grounds of the former Fruitland Nurseries, and as a tribute to its botanical history, each hole is named after a tree or shrub once grown on the property. The naming of the holes was a collaborative effort between Bobby Jones, Clifford Roberts, and Louis Alphonse Berckmans, the son of P.J.A. Berckmans, who originally owned the nursery. While most hole names have remained unchanged, a few have been altered over the years.
Amen Corner: The Heart of Augusta National
“Amen Corner”—a phrase that is synonymous with Masters week—refers to the iconic stretch of holes No. 11, 12, and 13. The term was first coined by legendary golf writer Herbert Warren Wind in the April 21, 1958 edition of Sports Illustrated.
Running through Amen Corner is Rae’s Creek, named after John Rae, an Irish trader who played a significant role in shaping Augusta’s early history, commerce, and culture. Rae owned a home that served as the final stronghold along the Savannah River above Fort Augusta, offering refuge for residents during times of conflict. Rae’s Creek winds behind the 11th green, flows in front of the 12th green, and continues past the 13th tee—creating both beauty and danger in one of golf’s most iconic stretches.
The Masters Tournament: A Prestigious Tradition
The Masters is not only one of golf’s most prestigious events but also the first major championship on the professional golf calendar each year. It is recognized as an official money event by the PGA Tour, the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour), and the Japan Golf Tour.
The Green Jacket and Other Awards
The tradition of awarding a green jacket to the champion began in 1949. In addition to joining an elite group of winners, the champion becomes an honorary member of Augusta National. The green jacket may only leave club grounds with the reigning champion and must be returned the following year.
Beyond the green jacket, several other awards are presented during Masters week. A crystal vase goes to the player with the lowest daily round. A crystal bowl is awarded for a hole-in-one or double eagle, and players who make an eagle receive a pair of crystal goblets.
In 1952, the Silver Cup was introduced to honor the lowest-scoring amateur who makes the cut. Notable recipients include Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw, and Tiger Woods. More recently, Patrick Cantlay claimed it in 2012, followed by Viktor Hovland in 2019.
The Crow’s Nest: A Tradition for Amateurs
Amateurs in the field are invited to stay in the famous “Crow’s Nest,” a room atop the Augusta National clubhouse. It’s a cozy space divided into four sleeping quarters and has housed some of the game’s greats, including Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw, Tiger Woods, Tom Watson, and Phil Mickelson.
The Par 3 Contest: Fun and Tradition
Another beloved tradition is the Par 3 Contest, held each Wednesday before the tournament. Debuting in 1960 with Sam Snead shooting a winning score of 23, the Par 3 course was designed in 1958 by George Cobb and Clifford Roberts. It’s a charming nine-hole layout measuring roughly 1,060 yards and plays as a par 27. Despite its lighthearted vibe, no winner of the Par 3 Contest has gone on to win the Masters in the same year—adding a bit of superstition to an already storied week.
The Champions Dinner: A Night of Tradition
One of the lesser-known traditions at the Masters is the Champions Dinner, held each Tuesday night of tournament week. Initiated by Ben Hogan in 1952, the exclusive gathering is hosted by the previous year’s champion, who also selects the menu—often a reflection of their home country or personal favorites. In 1998, Tiger Woods famously served cheeseburgers, fries, and milkshakes after his first win. It’s a night steeped in camaraderie and quiet reverence, with past champions gathering to celebrate one another and the history of the tournament.
The Timeless Atmosphere of Augusta National
Another unique touch at Augusta National is the course’s subtle, old-school atmosphere. Traditional signage is replaced by Roman numerals on scoreboards, and leaderboards are still updated manually by volunteers known as “Masters Scorers.” Adding to the timeless feel, cell phones are strictly prohibited during tournament play—preserving a distraction-free environment that’s as much about tradition as it is about championship golf.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Duration
Course
Location:
1946-Present
Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, Georgia, United States
1943-1945
No Tournament Cancelled due to World War II
N/A
1934-1942
Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, Georgia, United States
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
1934-1942, 1946-Present
Masters Tournament
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event:
6, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1975, 1986)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Augusta National Golf Club):
268, Dustin Johnson (2020)
18-Hole Record (Augusta National Golf Club):
63, Nick Price (Round 3, 1986), Greg Norman (Round 1, 1996)
Largest Margin of Victory (Augusta National Golf Club):
12 Strokes, Tiger Woods (1997)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Dr. Alister MacKenzie & Bobby Jones in 1933, Augusta National Golf Club features a traditional Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
A hole-by-hole look at the evolution of Augusta National from the 1930s to the 1950s to now (a thread 🧵)
*Photos courtesy of the Alister MacKenzie Institute & Noer/Milorganite Image Collection pic.twitter.com/QKubgoSeMw
Augusta National is one of the most consistent courses on the PGA Tour but there have been some recent renovations lately. In 2022, holes No. 11 ‘White Dogwood’ and No. 15 ‘Firethorn’ were slightly modified adding some additional difficulty. Both tee boxes were pushed back along with the recontouring of the fairways on those holes. In 2023, the tee box on No. 13 ‘Azalea’ was moved back approximately 35 yards. After the tournament last year, the tee box on No. 2, ‘Pink Dogwood’ was moved back 10 yards. Given the most recent change, the course yardage has increased from 7,545 yards to 7,555 yards.
Augusta National is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking sixth of the forty-nine courses players faced last season. Over the past three editions, the scoring average has been above par each time. In 2023, only one hole played under par outside of the four Par 5’s.
Augusta National is one of the longest tracks on the PGA TOUR, stretching 7,555 yards — the 7th longest of the 44 courses in rotation. Despite its length, the course offers some forgiveness off the tee, with fairways averaging 51.0 yards in width, the widest on Tour. The greens, however, are relatively small by comparison, averaging just 6,486 square feet. Bunkers don’t play a major role at Augusta either, with only 44 on the property — the third fewest among all PGA TOUR venues.
Originally, the green complexes consisted of Bermuda grass. Throughout the 1970s, the greens became slower, and they switched to a different strain of Bermuda. In 1978, Augusta National switched their par 3 course to bentgrass. Given the success of that trial run, they decided to change the main course to bentgrass as well before the 1981 Masters. If you’re interested in learning more about the greens of Augusta National, I highly recommend checking this article.
Augusta National’s five par 3s range from 155 to 240 yards, with two of them falling in the 150–175-yard window. Despite their beauty, these holes are anything but easy. In the most recent edition of the Masters, every par 3 on the course played over par—proving that even the shortest holes at Augusta demand pinpoint accuracy and nerves of steel.
No. 4 ‘Flowering Crab Apple‘, 240 Yards, Par 3: This hole is a stout par three that requires a long iron and is often made harder by deceptive winds. Two bunkers, front right and front left, guard the green, which slopes back to the front. The green was originally shaped like a boomerang. It’s now a bit wider, the bend slightly less extreme. But the hole remains an elusive target.
No. 6 ‘Juniper‘, 180 Yards, Par 3: This par three features an elevated tee and a large undulating green. The shifting levels of the putting surface from front to back make the pin position very important. In the 1930s, the green was fronted by a stream, and in the 1950s by a pond. But the hazard rarely came into play and was therefore removed in 1959.
No. 12 ‘Golden Bell‘, 155 yards, Par 3: One of the world’s most famous golf holes, this is Augusta National’s shortest par three. Club selection is often difficult, as varying winds can require anything from a six-iron to a nine-iron for Masters competitors. The daunting presence of Rae’s Creek and three strategically placed bunkers make it imperative that players land their shots on the putting surface. Golfers walk across the Ben Hogan Bridge to reach the green.
No. 16 ‘Redbud‘, 170 Yards, Par 3: This hole is played entirely over water to a green secured by three bunkers. With the putting surface significantly pitched from right to left, an exacting tee shot is required to set up a reasonable birdie chance.
Augusta National Golf Club features ten par 4s, five of which fall within the demanding range of 450 to 500 yards. The shortest of the bunch is the risk-reward 3rd hole, “Flowering Peach,” measuring just 350 yards. On the other end of the spectrum is the formidable 11th hole, “White Dogwood,” stretching out to 520 yards—making it not only the longest par 4 on the course but also the most difficult. In 2024, No. 11 played to a scoring average of +0.386, the toughest of any par 4 at Augusta.
No. 5 ‘Magnolia‘, 495 Yards, Par 4: This hole was inspired by the legendary Road Hole at the Old Course at St. Andrews. An uphill, dogleg left to a sloping green. The fairway bunkers are deep and positioned to demand accuracy off the tee. To clear them requires a carry of 315 yards. The green slopes back to the front, and a rear bunker catches balls hit too long.
No. 10 ‘Camellia‘, 495 Yards, Par 4: This long par four plays steeply downhill and features a nearly 60-yard-long center bunker well short of the green. Players will try to drive the ball to the left-center for the best angle into a green that pitches right to left. Until 1935, this was the first hole. It is traditionally the most difficult hole on the course. Originally, the 10th green was positioned to the right of the huge fairway bunker. In 1937, the putting surface was moved to the rise beyond the bunker, making the hole extremely demanding.
No. 11 ‘White Dogwood‘, 520 Yards, Par 4: At this hole begins Amen Corner, and wind is often a factor. The tee shot plays downhill and left to right. A pond guards the green to the left and a bunker is strategically placed right center. This hole may best be remembered for Larry Mize’s miraculous chip-in to defeat Greg Norman in a playoff in the 1987 Masters. Prior to 1950, Rae’s Creek ran in front of this green. It was replaced by a larger hazard in form of the current pond.
No. 18 ‘Holly‘, 465 Yards, Par 4: One of the most famous finishing holes in golf, this uphill dogleg right is protected by two bunkers at the left elbow of the fairway. A drive hit down the center will often require a middle iron for a second shot to a deep, narrow green guarded by one bunker short-left and another hard right.
Augusta National’s four par 5s—No. 2 Pink Dogwood, No. 8 Yellow Jasmine, No. 13 Azalea, and No. 15 Firethorn—have long been considered prime scoring opportunities. In last year’s Masters, all but one played under par. The exception was No. 15 Firethorn, which averaged 5.007, making it the lone par 5 to play over par. The easiest hole on the course? That honor went to No. 8 Yellow Jasmine, which yielded a scoring average of just 4.641.
The only par 5 to undergo a change ahead of this year’s tournament is Pink Dogwood (No. 2), where the tee box was moved back 10 yards and shifted slightly to the left, adding a subtle new challenge to a traditionally gettable hole.
No. 2 ‘Pink Dogwood‘, 585 Yards, Par 5: Originally, the green was guarded by a lone bunker on the right. That bunker was reduced in size in 1966, and a left bunker was added in 1946. No. 2 is a dogleg left which may be reachable in two. Large, deep greenside bunkers demand special attention on the second shot.
No. 8 ‘Yellow Jasmine‘, 570 Yards, Par 5: An accurate drive is needed to avoid the fairway bunker on the right side on this uphill hole. The long, narrow green is bunkerless. It is guarded instead by a series of mounds, the biggest of which line its left side.
No. 13 ‘Azalea‘, 545 Yards, Par 5: An accurate tee shot to the center of the fairway on this sweeping dogleg left allows a player to go for the green in two. A tributary to Rae’s Creek winds in front of the raised green, and four bunkers threaten behind. The Byron Nelson Bridge is located just off the tee.
No. 15 ‘Firethorn‘, 550 Yards, Par 5: A famously reachable par five when the winds are favorable. A well-struck second shot must be played over the pond and away from the bunker that guards the green on the right. Gene Sarazen hit his “shot heard ’round the world” here when he holed a four-wood approach from 235 yards away for a double eagle in 1935.
Success at Augusta National requires a complete, all-around game. From elite ball striking to savvy short game play and putting on lightning-fast greens, each facet of a player’s game is tested. Here’s a breakdown of the most critical stats—and how recent winners have ranked in each—heading into this year’s Masters Tournament.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Augusta National Golf Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.83
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
69%
GIR Percentage
66%
60%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.17
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
52%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.54
0.89
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Augusta National Golf Club.
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
To conquer Augusta National, players must be dialed in from tee to green. This stat combines performance off the tee, on approach, and around the greens—all vital areas on this course. Each of the last four Masters champions ranked 2nd or better in SG: Tee to Green during their respective wins. Augusta rewards precision and penalizes mistakes. Gaining strokes tee to green allows players to consistently set up birdie chances and avoid big numbers.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Bryson DeChambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Brooks Koepka
Shane Lowry
Rory McIlroy
Michael Kim
Robert MacIntyre
J.J. Spaun
Kevin Yu
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach play has proven to be the backbone of success at Augusta. The undulating greens and tight pin positions demand precise iron play. In each of the last four editions, the champion ranked 14th or better in SG: Approach.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
J.J. Spaun
Scottie Scheffler
Shane Lowry
Tom Kim
Justin Thomas
Kevin Yu
Nick Taylor
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
This stat is particularly crucial at Augusta, where missed greens are inevitable and scrambling becomes essential. Each of the last four champions ranked 7th or better in SG: Around the Green. With tight lies, shaved runoffs, and slick green surrounds, Augusta punishes sloppy wedge play. Saving par in tough spots is what separates contenders from pretenders.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Smith
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Tyrrell Hatton
Michael Kim
Min Woo Lee
Jose Maria Olazabal
Brian Campbell
Mike Weir
Russell Henley
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) – Green Speed: Lightning
Augusta’s greens are Bentgrass mown to 0.125″ and roll at speeds that are among the fastest players will face all year. Knowing how to navigate the contours and speed of these greens is key. Great putters on fast Bentgrass surfaces have a distinct edge.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Smith
Harris English
Patrick Reed
Min Woo Lee
Justin Rose
Denny McCarthy
Danny Willett
J.T. Poston
Viktor Hovland
Chris Kirk
3-Putt Avoidance
Three-putts are far more common at Augusta than at a typical PGA Tour stop. With fast greens and tricky hole locations, avoiding costly mistakes is critical. One slip on Augusta’s greens can derail a round. Players who consistently two-putt—or better—will stay in contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Smith
Michael Kim
Zach Johnson
Patrick Reed
Billy Horschel
Davis Riley
Justin Thomas
Robert MacIntyre
J.J. Spaun
Stephan Jaeger
Driving Distance Gained
Power off the tee has become a defining trait of recent Masters winners. Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Sergio Garcia all ranked in the top 20 in Driving Distance the week they won. Augusta’s wide fairways encourage aggressive play, and longer hitters have shorter irons into par 5s and long par 4s—translating to more scoring opportunities.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Bryson DeChambeau
Min Woo Lee
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Cameron Young
Jhonattan Vegas
Ludvig Aberg
Wyndham Clark
Taylor Pendrith
Joaquin Niemann
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Five of Augusta’s ten Par 4s fall within the 450–500 yard range. These are among the most demanding holes on the course. Playing them under par gives players a huge edge on the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Nick Taylor
Brooks Koepka
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Harris English
Justin Thomas
J.J. Spaun
Daniel Berger
Stephan Jaeger
Keegan Bradley
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Three of the four Par 5s at Augusta fall within this range, making them prime birdie or even eagle chances. Scoring on Par 5s is essential at Augusta. Players who capitalize here can quickly move up the leaderboard.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Riley
Justin Rose
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas
Cameron Smith
Michael Kim
Taylor Pendrith
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Joaquin Niemann
Bogey Avoidance Gained
Bogey avoidance is a critical stat at Augusta National because the course rewards patience and penalizes mistakes more than most venues on Tour. With its length, undulating greens, and demanding approach shots, Augusta doesn’t offer many scoring opportunities outside of the par 5s and a few shorter par 4s. That means players need to avoid giving shots away on the rest of the course. Par is often a good score, and minimizing bogeys helps players stay in contention while others fall back. One poor shot can quickly lead to a bogey or worse, especially around the greens where short-sided misses are brutally punished. Historically, players who have contended or won at the Masters — like Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Reed — have consistently ranked well in bogey avoidance. In a tournament where grinding out pars is often the key to survival, this stat becomes one of the most reliable indicators of potential success at Augusta.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
J.J. Spaun
Michael Kim
Shane Lowry
Danny Willett
Min Woo Lee
Daniel Berger
Joaquin Niemann
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Augusta demands a high volume of long iron play, especially on approach shots into Par 4s and Par 5s.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Akshay Bhatia
Bernhard Langer
Brooks Koepka
Viktor Hovland
Joaquin Niemann
Tom Hoge
Xander Schauffele
Dustin Johnson
Michael Kim
Lucas Glover
Course History & Comparable Courses
According to DataGolf, course history is more predictive at Augusta National than at nearly any other course on the calendar. Familiarity with the layout, green complexes, and overall demands is a significant asset. Only one player—Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979—has won the Masters in their debut. Experience matters, and players who’ve performed well here in the past tend to repeat success.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total in the Last 5 Years at Augusta National Golf Club):
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Smith
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Will Zalatoris
Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood
The Field:
This year’s Masters Tournament will feature a total of 95 competitors.Remarkably, 59 of the top 60 Official World Golf Ranking players will be contending, with only Eric Cole absent from the list. The field is composed of 72 PGA Tour Players, 12 LIV Tour Players, 5 Amateurs, 5 Past Champions, and 1 DP World Tour Player.
Special Invitations at This Year’s Masters
Fred Ridley, Chairman of Augusta National Golf Club and the Masters, has extended two special invitations for the 2025 tournament to Nicolai Højgaard of Denmark and Joaquin Niemann of Chile.
Højgaard, a member of both the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR, has earned three victories on the DP World Tour and impressed with a T16 finish in his Masters debut last season. His twin brother, Rasmus, will also make his Masters debut this year, marking the first time twin brothers will compete in the same Masters tournament.
Niemann, who plays for LIV Golf, received a special exemption for last year’s Masters and is set to make his sixth appearance at Augusta National. He first competed in the Masters in 2018 as the world’s top-ranked amateur and reigning Latin America Amateur champion. Niemann has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last two Masters appearances and has been in excellent form this season, winning both LIV Adelaide and LIV Singapore.
Top PGA Tour Contenders at This Year’s Masters
Leading the charge among the 72 PGA Tour players at this year’s Masters are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele. Defending champion Scheffler, who also won in 2022, comes into Augusta with strong momentum after finishing as the runner-up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open in his last start. While he hasn’t claimed a win this season, he has consistently been in the mix, never finishing outside the top 25 in his six starts so far.
Rory McIlroy, fresh off a scorching start to the 2025 season with two wins already, is highly motivated to complete his career Grand Slam. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele, who captured two Major Championships last season, looks to build on his strong form, highlighted by a solid finish at the Valspar Championship last month. Despite both Scheffler and Schauffele dealing with injury concerns this season, they have proven their ability to rise to the occasion when a Major is on the line.
LIV Contenders at This Year’s Masters
Leading the 12-player LIV contingent at this year’s Masters is 2023 champion Jon Rahm. He is joined by a strong lineup of players, including Bryson DeChambeau, a two-time Major champion with his most recent victory at the 2024 U.S. Open, and Brooks Koepka, a five-time Major champion, with his latest win coming in the 2023 PGA Championship. Also in contention is Cameron Smith, the 2022 Open Championship winner.
The field also features several past Masters champions from LIV, including Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, and Bubba Watson. Completing the LIV roster are Tyrrell Hatton and Joaquin Niemann, who round out the group of players receiving invitations for the tournament.
Amateurs Set to Shine at Augusta
Five of the game’s most accomplished amateurs will tee it up this week at Augusta National, each having earned their invitation to the 2025 Masters through victories in some of golf’s most prestigious amateur events:
Jose Luis Ballester – The 2024 U.S. Amateur champion and a standout at Arizona State, Ballester is currently ranked third in the PGA Tour University rankings. The 21-year-old Spaniard, who won his title at Hazeltine, has strong ties to Augusta through his coach—Sergio Garcia’s father—and a close relationship with the 2017 Masters champion himself.
Noah Kent – The U.S. Amateur runner-up in 2024, Kent is a sophomore at the University of Florida after transferring from Iowa. His breakthrough at the U.S. Amateur earned him a coveted Masters invitation.
Justin Hastings – Hailing from the Cayman Islands, Hastings won the 2025 Latin America Amateur Championship, securing spots in the Masters, U.S. Open, and Open Championship. The San Diego State senior has been inside the top 20 of the PGA Tour University rankings most of the season and has already made pro starts at the Mexico Open (T13) and Puerto Rico Open (MC).
Hiroshi Tai – A junior at Georgia Tech, Tai won the 2024 NCAA Division I individual national championship, which earned him his place at Augusta. He also competed in last year’s U.S. Open and was named a first-team All-American.
Evan Beck – Winner of the 2024 U.S. Mid-Amateur Championship, Beck represents the best of the post-college amateur scene. The Mid-Am, designed for players 25 and older who are not pursuing professional golf, gives Beck his first opportunity to walk Augusta’s hallowed fairways in competition.
Former Senior Champions at This Year’s Masters
This year’s Masters field includes six past Senior Champions: Ángel Cabrera, José María Olazábal, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Mike Weir, and Fred Couples. Notably, both Olazábal and Singh made the cut last year.
DP World Tour Representation at This Year’s Masters
Laurie Canter enters the 2025 Masters as the lone DP World Tour representative in the field. The Englishman has been in impressive form this season, highlighted by a victory at the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship. In addition to that win, Canter has shown remarkable consistency on the DPWT, finishing 3rd at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and narrowly falling short in a playoff at the Investec South African Open Championship. Despite his strong performances internationally, his lone start in the U.S. this season came at THE PLAYERS Championship, where he missed the cut.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Masters Tournament Champions (lifetime)
U.S. Open champions (five years)
The Open champions (five years)
PGA champions (five years)
Winners of the Players Championship (three years)
Current Olympic Gold Medalist (one year)
Current U.S. Amateur champion and runner-up
Current British Amateur champion
Current Asia-Pacific Amateur champion
Current Latin America Amateur champion
Current U.S. Mid-Amateur champion
Current NCAA Division I Men’s Golf Championship individual champion
The first 12 players, including ties, in the previous year’s Masters Tournament
The first 4 players, including ties, in the previous year’s U.S. Open
The first 4 players, including ties, in the previous year’s Open Championship
The first 4 players, including ties, in the previous year’s PGA Championship
Winners of PGA Tour events that award at least a full-point allocation for the FedEx Cup, from one Masters Tournament to the next
Those qualifying and eligible for the previous year’s season-ending Tour Championship (top 30 in FedEx Cup prior to tournament)
The 50 leaders on the final Official World Golf Ranking for the previous calendar year
The 50 leaders on the Official World Golf Ranking published during the week prior to the current Masters Tournament
Previous Winners in the Field:
Scottie Scheffler (’24, ’22), Jon Rahm (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’21), Dustin Johnson (’20), Patrick Reed (’18), Sergio Garcia (’17), Danny Willett (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Bubba Watson (’14. ’12), Adam Scott (’13), Charl Schwartzel (’11), Phil Mickelson (’10, ’06, ’04), Angel Cabrera (’09), Zach Johnson (’07), Mike Weir (’03), Vijay Singh (’00), Jose Maria Olazabal (’99, ’94), Bernhard Langer (’93, ’85), Fred Couples (’92)
Debutants in the Field:
Aaron Rai, Brian Campbell, Davis Riley, Davis Thompson, Evan Beck (Amateur), Hiroshi Tai (Amateur), Joe Highsmith, Jose Luis Ballester (Amateur), Justin Hastings (Amateur), Kevin Yu, Laurie Canter, Matt McCarty, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Noah Kent (Amateur), Rafael Campos, Rasmus Højgaard, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Thriston Lawrence
Exemptions:
The Masters Committee, at its discretion, also invites international players not otherwise qualified.
Nicolai Højgaard
Joaquin Niemann
Players with ties to Georgia in the Field:
Birthplace:
Brian Harman – Savannah, Georgia
Russell Henley – Macon, Georgia
Harris English – Valdosta, Georgia
College:
Patrick Reed – University of Georgia/ Augusta State University
Bubba Watson – University of Georgia
Brian Harman – University of Georgia
Russell Henley – University of Georgia
Sepp Straka – University of Georgia
Harris English – University of Georgia
Chris Kirk – University of Georgia
Injury Report:
(Page 2)
Rory McIlroy (Elbow) Dustin Johnson (Neck) Xander Schauffele (Ribs) Phil Mickelson (Shoulder) Jordan Spieth (Wrist) Will Zalatoris (Back/Hip) Hideki Matsuyama (Back/Neck/Elbow) Bernhard Langer (Achilles) Wyndham Clark (Neck) Patton Kizzire (Back)
— Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) April 7, 2025
When analyzing the last 10 Masters champions, a clear pattern emerges. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends that have defined the success of these players:
World Ranking
All 10 winners were ranked in the world’s top 30.
Eight of them were in the top 20 at the time of their victory.
Masters Experience
Eight of the last 10 winners had played in at least three Masters.
Seven of the last 10 champions had posted a previous top five finish at Augusta National.
Defending Champions
Only two defending champions since 2007 have managed a top 10, let alone a win.
Recent Form
Seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 12 finish in a strokeplay event during the same month of the Masters or the previous month.
Seven of the last 10 winners had already secured a win earlier in the season.
Nine of the last 10 winners had posted a top six finish in a Major in one of the previous two seasons.
Seven of the last 10 winners hadn’t cracked the top 10 the year before their victory.
Performance Stats
Several key stats highlight the consistency needed to win the Masters:
Driving Distance: Eight of the last 10 winners had previously recorded a top 20 in driving distance.
Driving Accuracy: Eight of the last 10 winners had been in the top 20 for driving accuracy in a previous Masters.
Greens in Regulation (GIR): Eight of the last 10 winners had ranked 12th or better for GIR at Augusta.
Scrambling: Eight of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 20 for scrambling in a previous Masters.
Putting Average: Seven of the last 10 winners had ranked 20th or higher for putting average at Augusta.
Ball-Striking: Eight of the last 10 winners had previously ranked in the top 10 for ball-striking.
Looking at the last 10 champions, eight had excelled in at least five of the six key performance categories above before claiming the title.
Here we go then…
THE 2025 MASTERS 10-YEAR TRENDS preview for @Betfair.
The most comprehensive list of the highest % trends at The Masters for the most predictive course – Augusta National.
TAKEAWAYS ⛳️Course experience matters here more than anywhere else ⛳️A longshot winner is improbable ⛳️Recent winning experience is significant ⛳️Current form,… pic.twitter.com/vOLVFlCJr1
Top-5 trends for The Masters (very strong for this event)
Look for…
– Top-10 finish in last 8 PGA Tour events in Georgia – Top-10 ranking in SG: Putting in last 2 months – Played in either of last 2 PGA Tour events in Georgia – Top-10 finish in last 5 Masters Tournaments -… pic.twitter.com/ltJgcqngAs
Will There Be a Playoff at the Masters Tournament? (Yes +350 / No -500)
The Masters has not concluded in a playoff since 2013.
In 1976, the tournament adopted a sudden-death playoff format, replacing the traditional 18-hole playoff. The format was updated again in 2004, designating the 18th hole as the starting point for a playoff, rather than the 10th. Since this change, there have been 11 sudden-death playoffs at Augusta—four were decided on the first hole, while seven extended to the second.
Prior to 1976, playoffs were conducted over 18 holes, with one notable exception in 1935 when the playoff spanned 36 holes. In total, six Masters titles were decided by a full 18-hole playoff, with none requiring extra holes beyond that.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Masters Tournament? (Yes -200/ No +150)
There have been no hole-in-ones recorded in the last two editions of the Masters. The most recent came in 2022, when Stewart Cink aced the iconic 16th hole. In 2021, two aces were recorded—Tommy Fleetwood found the cup on No. 16, while Corey Conners made his on the par-3 6th.
Will There Be A Wire-to-wire Winner at the Masters Tournament? (Yes +650)
Only five players in Masters history have held the outright lead after every round and gone on to win the tournament wire-to-wire. The most recent to accomplish this rare feat was Jordan Spieth in 2015. He joins an elite group that includes Raymond Floyd (1976), Jack Nicklaus (1972), Arnold Palmer (1960), and Craig Wood (1941).
Before diving into this week’s outright picks, I want to highlight one notable omission from the card — Collin Morikawa. On paper, he checks every box: elite in all the key metrics, a two-time Major champion, and a strong history at Augusta National. He even came in at No. 1 in my model this week.
But after his collapse at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, it’s hard to trust him to close. Time and time again, he’s shown there’s something missing in the final moments. He already has two runner-up finishes this season — matching the two he had last year — and the pattern is becoming hard to ignore. It’s starting to resemble the stretch Xander Schauffele went through before finally breaking through at the PGA Championship.
Until Morikawa proves he can finish the job, it’s tough to back him with full confidence. On top of that, no player has posted back-to-back top 5 finishes at the Masters since 2020 — and Morikawa finished third here last year.
Outrights
Jon Rahm (+1600) – BetMGM
Jon Rahm has been in solid form during the early stages of the 2025 season on the LIV Golf Tour. He’s posted five top-10 finishes in six starts, highlighted by a T2 in Riyadh, a T5 in Singapore, and a T6 in Hong Kong. His most recent outing at LIV Miami resulted in a T9 finish, showing consistent play heading into Augusta. His only missed cut came at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January.
Rahm boasts an impressive resume at Augusta National. In 2023, he claimed his first green jacket with a dominant performance. Outside of that win, he’s recorded six top 10 finishes in eight Masters starts, including a T5 in 2021, T7 in the COVID-delayed 2020 Masters, T9 in both 2019 and 2024, a 4th place finish in 2018, and a T27 in both 2017 and 2022. Despite a T45 finish in 2024, Rahm has shown he knows how to contend at Augusta. With solid LIV form and a history of success at the Masters, he enters the 2025 tournament as a legitimate threat to capture his second green jacket.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Jon Rahm
50
39
45
25
94
5
46
87
20
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Xander Schauffele (+2200) – BetMGM
Xander Schauffele’s 2025 season has been a gradual recovery after a significant setback early in the year. Following an intercostal strain in December—an injury to the rib cartilage—he was sidelined for more than a month, missing key West Coast events, including the tournament at Torrey Pines, where he’s had success in the past.
He returned at The Sentry in Hawaii, where he struggled to find his rhythm, finishing T30. His performances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship focused more on shaking off the rust than competing for wins. However, a clutch birdie on the final hole at TPC Sawgrass demonstrated his resilience and ability to rise to the occasion. At the Valspar Championship, Schauffele posted his best result of the season so far, finishing T12, as he continues to refine his game ahead of the majors.
Although Schauffele has yet to notch a top-10 finish in 2025, he’s showing steady improvement. With the injury behind him and more time on the course, he’s steadily returning to the form that has made him a consistent force on the PGA TOUR.
Xander Schauffele had a breakthrough 2024 season, securing his first two major championships—victories at the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club and The Open Championship at Royal Troon.
He’s no stranger to Augusta National, having competed there seven times, with five top 20 finishes to his name, including four top 10s. Schauffele’s best result at the Masters came in 2021 when he finished T3. However, his 2022 Masters campaign was a rare misstep, as he missed the cut. In recent years, he’s bounced back strongly, finishing T10 in 2023 and improving to 8th in 2024. His consistency at Augusta shows that he’s found his rhythm on the course, entering the 2025 tournament with confidence and a strong track record.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Xander Schauffele
40
13
74
43
15
14
80
77
6
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Brooks Koepka (+3000) – DraftKings
Brooks Koepka has had a mixed start to his 2025 season on the LIV Golf Tour. His most notable performance came with a runner-up finish in Singapore, showing flashes of his major-contending form. He also recorded a T7 in Adelaide but struggled elsewhere, finishing T33 in Riyadh, T35 in Hong Kong, and T18 in Miami. While not in peak form, Koepka has a history of showing up when it matters most—at the majors.
At Augusta National, Koepka has delivered several strong performances throughout his career. He finished tied for 2nd in 2023, narrowly missing out on the green jacket. He also has two other top 10 finishes at the Masters: a T7 in the COVID-delayed 2020 tournament and a T2 in 2019. His 2021 and 2022 appearances were cut short due to missed cuts, and in 2024, he finished tied for 45th. In total, Koepka has made ten Masters starts, with five top 20 finishes. Despite inconsistent LIV results this season, his Major pedigree and past success at Augusta make him a dangerous contender in 2025.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Brooks Koepka
4
14
16
64
35
28
2
34
2
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Shane Lowry (+4500) – DraftKings
Shane Lowry’s 2025 season on the PGA Tour has been solid, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a 7th-place showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s been a consistent presence on leaderboards, also notching top 15 finishes at the Valspar Championship (T8) and the Cognizant Classic (T11). Though he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and had a disappointing T39 at the Genesis Invitational, Lowry has shown he’s trending in the right direction ahead of Augusta.
At the Masters, Lowry’s history has been up and down. His best finish came in 2022 with a T3, showing his ability to contend at Augusta National. In 2023, he followed it up with a respectable T16, but he struggled in 2024, finishing T43. Prior to that, he missed the cut four times (2016, 2017, 2019, and 2015) but did manage to make the weekend in 2020 (T25) and 2021 (T21). While he’s yet to claim a green jacket, Lowry’s ball-striking and recent form make him a sneaky threat in 2025 if his putter cooperates.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Shane Lowry
5
4
15
18
33
77
15
15
42
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Russell Henley (+5500) – DraftKings
Russell Henley has delivered a strong and steady 2025 PGA Tour season, highlighted by a signature win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 9. He’s been a regular presence near the top of the leaderboard, recording a T5 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T6 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and T10 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Henley also turned in respectable finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship and The Sentry (both T30), along with a T39 at The Genesis Invitational.
At the Masters, Henley has put together a respectable track record. His best performances came back-to-back in 2017 (T11) and 2018 (T15), showing he can handle Augusta’s challenge when in form. He’s made the cut in each of his last three starts, finishing T38 in 2024 and T30 in 2022. Earlier in his career, he notched a T21 in 2015 and T31 in 2014 after missing the cut in his 2013 debut. With his game in a good place this season, Henley could be a dark horse to watch at Augusta.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Russell Henley
12
17
10
14
26
89
17
21
22
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Robert MacIntyre (+6000) – DraftKings
Robert MacIntyre has continued to elevate his game on the PGA TOUR following a breakout 2024 season that saw him win both the RBC Canadian Open and the Genesis Scottish Open. He opened his 2025 campaign with impressive consistency, notching three top 20 finishes in his first five starts, including a standout T6 at the WM Phoenix Open. After a brief stumble with a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational—his only one of the season so far—MacIntyre quickly rebounded with a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 9th-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. He kept that momentum going overseas, finishing T9 in his most recent start at the Porsche Singapore Classic.
Though MacIntyre has only made two appearances at Augusta National, he’s made the most of them. He impressed with a T21 finish in his Masters debut in 2021 and followed it up with a T23 in 2022, signaling that the course suits his game well. As he heads into the 2025 Masters in solid form, MacIntyre looks poised to contend on golf’s biggest stage.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Robert MacIntyre
8
28
42
32
8
47
51
58
49
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Top 20
Patrick Cantlay (+110) – BetMGM
Patrick Cantlay closed out the 2024 PGA TOUR season with a strong stretch of form, recording six top-20 finishes across his final seven starts. He carried that momentum into 2025 with a solid opening run, notching three top-15 finishes in his first four appearances. Among those early highlights were T5 finishes at both The American Express and The Genesis Invitational, showcasing his trademark consistency. More recently, Cantlay has continued to play steady golf, finishing no worse than T33 in each of his last three starts as he builds toward peak form for the majors.
Cantlay’s history at Augusta National is extensive and dates back to 2012, when he made his Masters debut as an amateur. Since then, he’s made seven additional appearances as a professional. While his first pro start in 2018 resulted in a missed cut, he bounced back the following year with a T9 finish in 2019 and added a T17 in 2020. His 2021 and 2022 appearances were less successful, missing the cut and finishing T39, respectively. However, Cantlay has found more consistency in recent editions, placing T14 in 2023 and T22 in 2024. As he returns in 2025, he brings both experience and form, hoping to contend for his first green jacket.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Patrick Cantlay
22
11
46
75
43
19
41
27
17
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Corey Conners (+160) – BetMGM
Corey Conners opened the 2025 PGA TOUR season with a strong showing at The Sentry, finishing T5 and signaling a promising start. However, the Canadian quickly ran into a rough patch, missing the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and struggling with finishes of T65 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T74 at the WM Phoenix Open. His fortunes began to shift at The Genesis Invitational, where a T24 finish helped build momentum. Since then, Conners has been on an impressive run, posting four consecutive top-20 finishes, including three top-10s. His best result of the season came at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he placed 3rd and flashed the form that has made him a consistent contender.
Conners has a long-standing relationship with Augusta National, beginning with his Masters debut in 2015 as an amateur. As a professional, he’s made six starts at the tournament, highlighted by an excellent stretch from 2020 to 2022. During that span, he finished T10, T8, and T6, respectively, establishing himself as one of the most consistent performers at the Masters during that period. His more recent appearances have been less successful, with a missed cut in 2023 and a T38 in 2024. Still, given his current form and strong track record at Augusta, Conners arrives at the 2025 Masters as a legitimate dark horse to watch.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Corey Conners
18
38
32
71
72
70
19
69
70
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Patrick Reed (+175) – BetMGM
Patrick Reed opened his 2025 campaign with a solid stretch on the DP World Tour, notching a T10 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and a T8 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. However, he lost some momentum at the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship, where he finished T60. As the LIV Golf season got underway, Reed struggled to find his footing, finishing outside the top 30 in his first three events.
That trend shifted at LIV Hong Kong, where he posted a T10 finish, signaling a return to form. He followed that up with a T25 at LIV Singapore before gaining steam with a runner-up performance at the International Series Macau on the Asian Tour. Most recently, Reed finished T7 at LIV Miami, delivering back-to-back strong showings and entering Masters week with renewed confidence.
Reed is no stranger to Augusta National, having made eleven career appearances at the Masters. His early results were underwhelming, missing the cut twice in his first four starts and failing to break into the top 40. That changed dramatically in 2018, when he captured his first and only green jacket. Since that breakthrough win, Reed has become a consistent performer at Augusta, tallying four top-15 finishes in his last six starts. He hasn’t placed worse than T36 in that span, including a T4 in 2023 and T12 in 2024, proving his comfort and reliability at one of golf’s most demanding venues.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Patrick Reed
35
64
2
3
4
82
13
22
64
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Nationality Prop
Top Dane: Nicolai Hojgaard (-125) over Rasmus Hojgaard – BetMGM
Only two Danes are in the field for the 2025 Masters, and fittingly, they’re twin brothers—Nicolai and Rasmus Højgaard. Nicolai earned one of the two special invitations to Augusta this year, while Rasmus qualified with his top-50 finish in the Official World Golf Ranking at the end of 2024. This will be Nicolai’s second Masters appearance after an impressive debut last year, where he briefly held the lead during the third round before ultimately finishing T16. Rasmus, on the other hand, will be making his Masters debut this week.
Nicolai’s 2025 campaign has been up and down. He opened the season with a T24 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and notched his best result of the year with a solo 8th at the Mexico Open. He’s also put together a couple of solid showings including a T36 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T18 at the Cognizant Classic. However, the last few weeks haven’t been as sharp, with missed cuts at Valspar, THE PLAYERS, and the Houston Open raising some concerns.
Rasmus has followed a similar path. He got off to a strong start on the DP World Tour with a T14 in Dubai and added top-25 finishes at Pebble Beach (T22) and Phoenix (T12). But since then, his form has dipped—missing three of his next four cuts before finishing T32 in Houston.
While both players are trying to regain their footing, Nicolai gets the edge in this matchup. He’s played Augusta National before, which can’t be overstated at a course where experience often plays a major role. Add in slightly better form early in the year and stronger statistical trends heading into the week, and Nicolai looks like the sharper play over his brother in this unique sibling showdown.
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Nicolai Hojgaard
43
12
81
24
29
18
57
16
23
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
SG: T2G
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: Putting (Bentgrass, Lightning)
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4: 450-500 Yards
Par 5: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Rasmus Hojgaard
83
78
72
86
50
6
94
37
26
Statistical rank amongst the field from the most recent 24-rounds
Tournament Matchups
J.J. Spaun (-125) over Matt Fitzpatrick – FanDuel
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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