This should be a great main even here. Jorge Masvidal took 2018 off after 2 losses against some great opponents in 2017 but he came back and won his last three fights including beating up a tough Nate Diaz at the end of 2019. Kamaru Usman winning all the bouts in his UFC career and the last 15 in a row counting other leagues is superb. Lots of people are on Mastival here and I like him for the most part as well. Even tho he is a nice dog, there may be a better way to play him. I think rather than taking the +200 on him, I have a better idea to get better odds and have a nice out if Usman wins. Kamaru Usman hasn’t lost a fight since 2013 which was in the CFA and 8 out of his last 10 fights went to a decision in a very defensive style so I think that there is a great chance that if he wins, it will go to decision and that price is at +140. I also love the fact Masvidal’s last 9 losses all went to decision. On the other side of the coin, Jorge’s last 5 wins all involve a KO or TKO and that price is a sweet +315. Jorge Masvidal’s aggressive style of fighting has led his fights to an average time of 12:53 seconds and this will be a 25 minute fight being that it’s for the welterweight championship. Masvidal does not seem to get submitted being that it has been since 2009 since that happened. Ironically, 2009 was also the same year that Jorge was actually able to submit someone himself. Jorge’s takedown average is 1.16 every 15 minutes so you know that he doesn’t like trying to get people to the ground. I do not see any problem putting a unit on a very hungry Jorge Masvidal at +315 as well for the fat part of the play.
Prop play: Usman to win by decision +140 – 1 star and Masvidal to win by KO/TKO +315 – 1 star premium shared
Free Play:
Jiri Prochazka +135 vs Volkan Oezdemir -145 –
This is Jiri’s first bout in the UFC but I think he has a legitimate shot vs Volkan. Jiri has won 10 fights in a row with ease in the Rizin league which includes a few ex-UFC athletes in Fabio Maldonado and CB Dollaway. Jiri is hungry. Volkan is a great fighter but something is wrong with him right now. He only won 2 of his last 5 bouts and struggled his last fight win against a guy in Aleksandar Rakic who hasn’t really fought anyone. I like the plus money but not super confident so only a half star.
The Big 12 has always been a pretty amazing to me being that over the past 5 years or so, there has been the same 2 teams who were the outliers at the top and bottom of the conference. Every other ream was just kinda mixed in and were always pretty much as good as each other. No parody between them whatsoever means they pretty much just beat each other up. Those 2 outlying teams on the top and bottom are obviously Oklahoma and Kansas. Lets see if anything changes from my analysis.
1. Oklahoma – Power Rating – 17.5
2019 Record – 12-2
Key Transitions – Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb to the NFL
Schedule – Medium Hard – Tough away games at Iowa State and at TCU. Tennessee won’t be a cake walk next year.
Season Win Total: 10
Summary: Lots of question marks as usual for this team but has that mattered the last 3 or 4 years? it looks like another new QB for this team. Losing Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb will leave a mark but they do bring back a lot of O-Line. Spencer Rattler looks to be the starting QB for the Sooners this year. He is a touted 5-star recruit out of Phoenix Pinnacle High and is expected to do big things in Lincoln Riley’s offense next season after playing sparingly behind Jalen Hurts last season. The defense should improve here returning 70% production and I do trust Lincoln Riley to make sure they are more of a focus this year. Top 8 recruiting classes the last 3 years is par for the course for Oklahoma.
My Wins – 9.5 so lean under – tricky schedule and unproven talent at QB
2. Texas – Power Rating – 15.5
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – Devin Duverney to the NFL and 2 new coordinators in Chris Ash and Mike Yurcich
Returning Production: 21st – O66% D82%
Recruiting – Top 20 over the last 3 years
Recruting Ranking ’17 – 25th ’18 – 3rd ’19 – 3rd.
Net YPP: .26 – BAD
Turnover Margin: +6 – Pretty good and may not regress back to the mean
Schedule – Medium Hard – At LSU will tell you everything that you need to know about the future of this season win total.
Season Win Total: 9
Summary: Make or break! This has to be the year that Texas overtakes Oklahoma. With 2 new offensive and Defensive coordinators coming in, you can see that Tom Herman isn’t messing around. Chris Ash was very successful on defense before becoming the head coach of Rutgers. He helped the Badgers to two Rose bowls from 2010-2011 and was a big part of Ohio State’s 2014 title. Mike Yurcich was a Quarterback coach and passing coordinator at Ohio State last year as well as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State 5 years before that showing some great experience calling plays. Sam Ellinger returns at the helm for Texas along with most of the offensive line and running backs. The Longhorns do lose a few at wide receiver like Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but guys like Brennen Eagles and Al’Vonte Woodard will step right in. Returning 82% of their defense should be huge this year and they should make a step forward. In order to reach expectations, Texas needs to get past LSU their second game this season and will have a lot to prove vs Oklahoma.
My number is 9.5 so lean over – once again I wonder if this is the year that Sam Ellinger brings this team to where it supposed to be.
Schedule – Medium – Non-conference is pretty easy and they get Texas at home.
Season Win total: 8.5
Summary: Great returning production ranking 9th in the nation. They will have a new offensive coordinator in Kasey Dunn but that shouldn’t change many things in my opinion. Oklahoma State is a dangerous team for 2020. The fact that Spencer Sanders returning is nice but he was only 16-11 TD to INT ratio and 2065 yards passing. This needs to improve if they are going to make a run. I really like the fact that this team showed well against the top opponents last year and never really got blown out. RB Chuba Hubbard led the NCAA in rushing yards at 2098 and i expect another great year. The Pokes can score against anybody in the Big 12 and if their defense steps up then lookout.
My Number is 8.5 with some upside
4. Iowa State – Power Rating – 9.5
2019 Record – 7-6
Key Transitions – None
2019 Returning Production: 52nd – O62% D73%
Recruiting – In the 40s and 50s over the last 3 years
Schedule – Medium – Non-Conference is tough vs Iowa but they get Oklahoma at home and go to Texas.
Season Win Total: 8
Summary: Iowa State returns their main guys this year and that is a very good thing. I thought Matt Campbell once again did a fine job last year and if it wasn’t for that special teams fumble vs Iowa, they win that game. Brock Purdy passed for a massive 3982 yards with a 27-9 TD to Interception ratio. Lots of people have Iowa State as a sleeper team this year in the Big 12 and it is hard for me to disagree looking at their yards per play numbers from last year. This team lost 2 receivers to graduation but return their main receiver Tarique Milton. Breece Hall also returns at tailback who was their leading rusher last year. Another tell that this team could be good is that none of their seniors were drafted into the NFL while the Cyclones still were able to pull of some good stats. I think my biggest question here is the offensive line who only returns 2 starters but if that improves than this might be the real team who pushes the Sooners for the top spot.
My Number – 9 wins with upside so strong lean over but I am taking Iowa State 12-1 to win the Big 12!
5. TCU – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 5-7
Key Transitions – Jalen Reagor Wr, Jeff Gladney CB, Ross Blaylock DT to the NFL draft
Returning Production: 64th – O61% D68%
Recruiting – In the late 20s ish over the last 3 years
Schedule – Medium hard – Non conference is tricky vs SMU and at Cal. They at least get Oklahoma and Iowa State at home but they go to Texas
Season Win Total: 6.5
Summary: TCU has a really hard start to the schedule. First they have to go to Cal and might very well lose that one. After an easy win vs Prairieview, they get SMU who was a pretty good team last year as we all saw when the mustangs actually beat the horned frogs at home. This will be a revenge spot. TCU then has to host Oklahoma State the week after which won’t be easy at all. Quarterback Max Duggan returns with some experience but at 53% completions, that might not be that good of a thing. TCU’s outlook to me seems very dependent on the four new offensive lineman coming in and their 5 star freshman running back Daimarqua Foster. I really struggled where to put this team in my power ratings this year. I think that there are at least four better teams than they are and they probably will lose at home to Oklahoma and Iowa State both at home, I have them at 7 wins on the nose.
My Number – 7 wins so small lean over
6. Baylor – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 11-3 pretty amazing
Key Transitions – Coach Matt Rhule to NFL, Dave Aranda new coach, Denzel Mims WR, Bravvion Roy DL, and James Lynch DL to the NFL
Turnover Margin: +11 – Great but maybe some regression
Schedule – Medium – Non-conference looks easier because LA Tech lost a lot of players and it will be too early for Ole miss to be good under new coach Mike Leach.
Season Win Total: 7.5
Summary: Baylor is a similar situation to Minnesota except minus 1 great coach. This team greatly exceeded expectations last year and now has the pressure with new coach and former Wisconsin and LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda due to Matt Rhule going to the NFL. This is a good replacement in my opinion because Baylor’s defense only returns 32% production and the kids need good leadership to stay tough in this conference. Keeping Charlie Brewer and a lot of offense is huge though minus the loss of my favorite wide receiver in the draft in Denzel Mims. I think this team could be an over team from the get go until these kids can learn the defensive schemes. My number is literally right where Vegas has it so no value.
My Wins – 7.5
The next three teams are very interesting to me because they all had new coaches last year and all did pretty well. Neal Brown is the coach of West Virginia who came from Troy went 5-7 last year with no returning production, Matt Wells at Texas Tech who came from Utah State went 4-8 last year on a tough schedule and lost his starting QB game 3, and Chris Klieman came from many division 2 championships at North Dakota State and brought his team to an 8-5 record last year and a bowl appearance vs Navy! Can’t wait to see who emerges this year.
Recruiting – Average is 61st the last few years. Not good.
Net YPP: -.5
Turnover Margin: +4 – Pretty good for this team
Schedule – Medium Easy – This team might have the easiest schedule in the Big 12.
Season Win Total: 6
Summary: After the firing of Kliff Kingsbury, I thought that Matt Wells has done a half way decent job to stay in games. Offensive returning production is a little off on this team due to quarterback Alan Bowman’s injury week 3. Another good thing is that the Red Raiders might have the easiest schedule in the Big 12. They get both Texas and Oklahoma at home and their non-conference games looks good vs UTEP, Alabama State and Arizona at home. This team took Baylor to overtime last year, won at West Virginia and beat Oklahoma State. Texas Tech returns their skill positions which is very nice on offense but they have to fill a few holes on defense such as Jordyn Brooks who went to the NFL in the first round and Broderick Washington at Defensive Tackle who was a 5th rounder. This team could be sneaky good.
Net YPP: -.62 and expected for a first year head coach
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Medium easy – Goes to Oklahoma and gets Texas at home. Easier non-conference
Season Win Total: 6.5
Summary: Kansas State had a great first year under Chris Klieman and they shockingly won 8 games. I was very impressed with how they finished the season winning at Texas Tech and then at home vs Iowa State. Oh, yeah, don’t forget beating OKLAHOMA as well! The Cats also almost beat a great Navy team in their bowl game last year. My biggest issue with this team for 2020 is that they only return 2 starters on offense but at least one of them is their Quarterback in Skyler Johnson. They return 5 out of 11 starters on defense as well so lots of question marks. Even tho this team won 8 games last year, I can only count 6 wins for sure.
Turnover Margin: -6 – This was bad but I kinda like it because this more experience team can regress to the mean
Schedule – Medium – All depends on Florida State
Season Win Total: 5.5
Summary: This team really shocked me last year winning 5 games and what an amazing finish at the end winning 2 out of their last 3 at Kansas State and at TCU. They also kept with Oklahoma State only losing by 6 points. 1st year coach Neal Brown did a fantastic job with them because they ranked worst at returning production last year and still prospered. The interesting thing about the medium returning production this year is that Jarrett Doege took over for Austin Kendall last year and actually was the better quarterback so their offensive number of 71% returning should be a bit higher. On Defense they list only 5 starters returning but in all reality, 8 of them had some significant snaps last year. I think their first game in Atlanta vs the Florida State Seminoles should really set the tone for how the Mountaineers will do this season.
Recruiting – Lots of work to do ranking in the high 60s
Net YPP: -.29 – Shocking that its this high
Turnover Margin: -12 – Horrible but this is probably a good thing if they can bring it to 0
Schedule – Medium Easy – Non-conference is a cake walk
Season Win Total: 3.5
Summary: Les Miles really took up a challenge when accepting the Kansas Job. This team hasn’t done anything since the 1960s and I am not even that old to know. Their recruiting ranks in the high 60s and they pretty much are going against group of 5 conference schools and some division 2 schools. You see, kids have to decide if they will get noticed more playing for an Appalachian State team and winning over a bad Power 5 team like Kansas. The thing that was shocking to me is that there is some room for improvement. I really do not care that they lost a ton of production when they really were not producing much, but I do like the fact that they can improve their turnover margin and maybe be in some games. They have a defensive minded coach so anything is possible in the Big 12 I suppose. In saying that I do not want to go over 3.5 games when I only see 2 for sure wins and a couple of maybes.
We have a great show for you today! Adam Burke, whom is a legend in the Podcasts of Sports Betting industry, comes on our show for the first time to break down the shortened MLB season as well as some great information on handicapping baseball. First, Kiev talks about how the Cam Newton acquisition for the New England Patriots has affected the lines. Next, we answer a listener question about the Iowa Hawkeye’s and their season win total number. Then, Adam comes on the show to talk about the 2020 shortened MLB season. We discuss Adam’s history and love for baseball and how it evolved into sports betting. Next, we discuss the future’s market and some possible situations that teams may find themselves in after about 40 games in. Then, Adam discusses how he handicaps baseball with sabermetrics among other factors. Do the sports books use sabermetrics? What does sabermetrics tell you compared to the traditional stats like ERA? What is a good adjustment for home field advantage in baseball? Finally, Kiev and Adam discuss a little football and Adam talks about a play that he likes for 2020.
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We have a fantastic show for you today! We talk about the 2020 college football Big 12 conference preview and season win totals! First, Kiev talks about how, believe it or not, baseball is going to have an actual season. Then, we get into our big 12 team previews and plays. Who are the best teams and which of them can make a run? How has the recruiting been over the past 3-4 years? What is their Net yards per play and returning production? Which teams if any have some value against the number?
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The AFC South – They say last but not least but not in this case. I am not talking about strength, I am talking about the difficulty to figure them out. This division has a very high variance of outcomes in my opinion. Once Again the AFC South has somehow achieved 2 playoff teams in with very hard schedules in 2019. Let’s not forget the whole Andrew Luck thing making so that maybe 3 teams could have made it had he not retired. In saying all of this, I really think that this year the schedule looks medium easy. This division has to play the NFC north which is medium and the AFC North which is easier and has had some struggling teams as of last year. I am not sure Pittsburgh will be showing a ton of offense and the Bengals will not be ready. In the NFC North, the Bears are a huge question mark to many people but the Vikings should regress and the Lions were not good last year. Lets take a deeper dive.
Houston Texans – Vegas win total – 7.5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large games vs New England and Kansas City
Key losses: Wr D’Andre Hopkins, DT DJ Reader, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Johnathan Joseph, OLB Barkevious Mingo
Key additions: RB David Johnson, TE Darren Fells, WR Randall Cobb, FS Eric Murray, CB Jalen Watkins,
Whom they drafted: DL Ross Blaylock, Edge Johnathan Greenard, OT Charlie Heck
Summery: Remember that time when Houston blew a 24-3 point lead in the playoffs last year to the Kansas City Chiefs? I don’t because I refuse to play that garbage in my head over and over again but what I do know is that Bill O’Brien may be the worst coach in the entire league and even a worse GM for the fact that he traded away the best wide receiver in the league in D’Andre Hopkins just to get in return an over-paid running back with a history of injuries. In saying all of that, I think that this team has a medium hard schedule and I do not think that they repeat at being number 1 in their division. DeShawn Watson can only do so much. JJ Watt is getting older and they really didn’t replace their pass rush loss of Jadaveon Clowney. Their at large games vs New England and Kansas City should split being that they get the Patriots at home, but I do expect losses against Cleveland, Baltimore, At Chicago and home against Green Bay. This team’s Pythagorean win total was only at 7.8 last year and will factor into this year lowing those 10 wins that the achieved. When i saw this win total I was wishing that it would be even higher but Vegas agrees with me and I have them at 7.4 wins
Action: No Play
2. Tennessee Titans – Vegas Win Total – 8.5
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Buffalo and Denver
Key losses: RT Jake Conklin, QB Marcus Marriota, CB Leshawn Simms, DT Austin Johnson, TE Delainey Walker
Key additions: Edge Vic Beasley, CB Johnathan Joseph, T Ty Sambrailo, DT Jack Crawford and a bunch of dudes
Whom they drafted: T Isaiah Wilson, CB Kristian Fulton and just a few others
Summary: The Titans moved a lot of side to side this year. I know that they really didn’t have Delainey Walker much last year at tight end due to injuries but they also didn’t make an effort to replace him from his free agency loss. Maybe he gets a deal done but I have to assume that he’s gone for now. My big problem with this Titans team is that they really didn’t do enough to put this team over the edge in free agency. If they wanted to be more of a power run team like the 49ers then why did they not get a nice tight end like a George Kittle. I suppose that I give a ton of credit to Ryan Tannahill and he is a better quarterback than we all thought he was, but I am not sure that he is that guy that can do it all himself like a Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. I also do not like the loss of Jack Conklin at right tackle to Cleveland. I expect a similar season from last year but with more wear and tear on Derrick Henry. I have the Titans at 9 wins.
Action: Slight lean over
3. Indianapolis Colts – Vegas Win total – 9
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs NY Jets and Oakland
Key losses: TE Eric Ebron, CB Pierre Desir, WR Devin Funchess, T Joe Haeg
Whom they drafted: WR Michael Pittman, RB Jonathan Taylor, S Julian Blackmon, QB Jacob Eason
Summary: There are a lot of people pretty high on the Colts these year. For me, I am a bit more skeptical. Last year really started out bad with Andrew Luck deciding to retire right before the season started. This in my opinion factored into the colts tough season last year of only 7 wins on an easy schedule. Now Vegas has this team winning the NFC South division and I am not exactly sure if that can happen. Obviously Phillip Rivers is a big addition and an upgrade from Jacoby Brissett, but how much of an upgrade is it when Rivers tends to only play well at the end of the games. I also wonder how big that upgrade is when you talk about the fact that Rivers won’t get a lot of reps with this team or these players during the Pandemic. I think the did a good job in free agency to patch up the defense but I am a little concerned about their tight end position. Rivers to Antonio Gates was a huge thing for the Chargers and losing Ebron just leaves Jack Doyal and headcase Trey Burton. My win total for them is 8.9 so no play here.
Action -No Play
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vegas win total – 4.5
Schedule: Medium– At large games vs Miami and LA Chargers
Key losses: T Cedric Ogbuehi, QB Nick Foles, DE Calais Campell, WR Marquise Lee
Key additions: ILB Joe Schobert, DL Rodney Gunter, TE TYler Eifert, DT AL Woods, CB Rashaan Melvin, RB Chris Thompson, OLB Aaron Lynch
Whom they drafted: CB CJ Henderson, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Laviska Shenault, DL Davon Hamilton
Summary: I really do not know what to think of this Jaguars team with such a low win total of 4.5. I really just feels like a team of no-names with a gimmicky QB in the Mustach Gardner Minshew. He is a great kid and all but I don’t think that Mike Leach’s system in college translates well into the NFL and you saw him struggle. The good news for this team is that they finished the season well winning 2 of their last 3 games but I still have some major questions about their offensive line that ranked only 26th in pro football focus. This teams Pythagorean wasn’t really all that bad at 5.3 last year and they had lots of transitions from Nick Foles to Gardner and lost a few guys on defense. I actually think their schedule is medium but manageable. My win number on this team is 5.2 but I only see 4 that they should get for sure home vs the Lions, at Cincinnati, at LA Chargers and the Steelers and Dolphins are coin flips. The rest look a lot like losses to me. I’ll lean to the over. Doug Marone will be on the hot seat this year.
We have a great show for you today! We talk about the 2020 college football Big 10 conference preview and season win totals! First, Kiev talks about his free Belmont Stakes play on www.theoddsbreakers.com that cashed over $300.00. Next, Kiev talks about a huge parlay that was missed by someone over the weekend. Then, we get into our big 10 team previews and plays. Who are the best teams and can they make a run? How has the recruiting been over the past 3-4 years? What is their Net yards per play and returning production? Which teams have some value against the number?
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Jun 9, 2018; Elmont, NY, USA; The field runs down the straight away after breaking from the gate at the start of the 150th Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
The first leg of the triple crown is here and I think we need to have some fun. The Belmont stakes will look a little different this year as we all know due to the shortened distance from 1 and 1/2 miles to 1 and 1/8th mile. Let’s start right here with the 8 horse who is the favorite named Tiz The Law. This is a Barclay Tagg horse who is going off at a short price of 6/5. I watched Tiz the Law race and he is the truth having his last 2 Beyers speed figures at 100 and 96. This thoroughbred won the Florida derby with ease and cashed a few good tickets of mine. Tiz The Law has flat out won 4 out of his 5 races and is a deserving favorite in this race. I feel that the fact that there is only 1 turn in this race with the field of 10 horses at a normal distance, it will help Tiz the Law even more to get to the finish line in first or second position. Tiz The Law’s only hiccup came on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs where he was boxed in. There is no value on this horse for W/P/S as you can probably see but it doesn’t mean that you can’t use him to make some exotic plays. A few other horses that I like are number 4 Modernist who has went the same distance and has done well before at 15/1 and the 3 horse max Max Player who has increased his Beyer winning his last 2 races and also at 15/1. Looking at my ticket, it would benefit us more if Tiz The Law takes second place but he is still my favorite to win. Here are my plays:
The OddsBreakers With ESPN's Chris Fallica and Wagertalk's Marco D'Angelo
We have Yuuuge show for you today! The 2020 Belmont Stakes R10 is upon us for this Saturday June 20th and there are no better handicappers to have on than two of the hardest hitters in horse racing. Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from Wagertalk.com and Chris Fallica @Chrisfallica from ESPN.com @espn come on our show to break down this weekend’s big race! First, Kiev rants about baseball (as usual) and then gets into why there is a huge disagreement between the players and the owners. Next, the guys come on talk about the Bob Baffert situation that may involve a conspiracy theory. Then, Chris, Marco and Kiev talk about a few football teams in college that may have some ATS value coming into the season. Then, Chris gives us an interesting Heisman long-shot play that is priced around 80-1. Next, Marco gives us an NFL future play that is not thought about and well worth looking at. Then, we get into the Belmont Stakes and discuss the favorite “Tiz The Law” along a few long shots that may hit the board. Which horses are we throwing out? How are we going to play this race? We also take a look at the Acorn G1 R8 at Belmont Park.
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The AFC North has to play the AFC South and the NFC East which looks to be towards the Easy! The Ravens are obviously the team to beat who had the best power rating in football last year with the surge from Lamar Jackson. The Steeler’s offense looked downright ugly last year and I have to wonder if Big Ben still has it to make that difference. Cleveland was that team with all of the talent in the world last year who could not put a good season together. Cincinnati was downright garbage and didn’t have any offensive line to work with. Also, AJ Green sat out the whole season which didn’t help the Bengals much at all. I expect the Ravens to remain on top with a huge wildcard to Cleveland if beer slamming Baker can help put it all together.
Baltimore Ravens – Vegas Win Total – 11.5
Schedule – Easy– At Large games vs New England and Kansas City
Key losses: DT Michael Pierce, ILB Patrick Onwausor, ILB Josh Burns
Key additions: DE Derek Wolf, G DJ Fluker, ILB Jake Ryan
Whom they drafted: LB Patrick Queen, RB JK Dobbins, DL Justin Madubuike, WR Devin Duvernay, LB Malik Harrison
Summary: Somehow the Ravens achieved greatness last year with a make-shift defense. They lost a ton of production early last year but Jon Harbaugh’s amazing mind figured out how to disrupt teams with pure blitz and stunt packages. This team is straight up loaded and having an easy schedule this year makes me think that they could rack up many wins. Their toughest games this year are home against the Chiefs, at Indianapolis, at Houston, home against the Cowboys and at Philadelphia which we all know isn’t too far away. They should win 3 out of those 5. The Ravens power offense features running backs of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and now JK Dobbins. I don’t see any chinks in this armor. The biggest issue that I have with the Ravens is that I am scared that the Tennessee Titans might have exposed a weakness in Lamar Jackson’s game. They basically took away the middle of the field and contained Lamar instead of going right at him. This in turn forced Jackson to throw to the sidelines with limited success. This scheme was an amazing coaching decision by Mike Vrable and it made all of the difference in that game. Baltimore’s wide reciever’s also didn’t help much but maybe they learn from it. Either way, I have this teams wins at 13.75 but I never have taken a team to get over 11.5 wins in a total play. Tough one for me.
Action – Strong lean to the over. Wait it out and maybe play the over if you can get plus money.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Vegas Win total – 9.5 juiced to the under -140 so 9.2
Schedule – Medium Easy – At Large games vs Buffalo and Denver
Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, C BJ Finney, ILB Tyler Matakevich, FS Sean Davis, CB Artie Burns
Key additions: FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, TE Eric Ebron, FB Derek Watt, G Steven Wisniewski,
Whom they drafted: WR Chase Claypool and a bunch of hmmmm
Summary: The Steelers obviously lost Big Ben for pretty much the whole year and it should be a good enough excuse to miss the playoffs if they didn’t have such an easy schedule last year playing teams like Cincinnati and Cleveland twice. I had to give back only 2 games for because this team over-achieved based on my power ratings of -1 point below average at the end of last year. I really do not like Javon Hargrave, Sean Davis and BJ Finney. The only pickups that I liked from their free agency is TE Eric Ebron who will be a good scapegoat for Big Ben this year along with Vance McDonald at TE and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. I think it is cool that Derek Watt is joining is brother TJ but let’s face it. He’s just a fullback and not exactly one that catches passes like Kyle Juszcyck. The Steelers did not have many draft picks at all this year and we shall see how Chase Claypool develops at WR. I have the Steelers and 9.1 wins so almost right at the number.
Action – No Play
3. Cleveland Browns – Vegas win total 8.5 juiced to the over -135 so 8.75
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs NY Jets and LV Raiders
Key losses: ILB Joe Schobert, FS Eric Murray, ILB Christian Kirksey, S Justin Burris
Key additions: Coach Kevin Stefanski, T Jake Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, QB Case Keenum, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings, ILB BJ Goodson, SS Andrew Sendejo and a bunch of others
Whom they drafted: T Jedrick Wills, S Grant Delpit, DL Jordan Elliot, LB Jacob Phillips
Summary: Remember that time I questioned Cleveland trading for Odell Beckham when they were already loaded at wide receiver while had a bad offensive line? How did that work out for them? 6 wins. Well this is a new year and I am very impressed by what this team has accomplished in the off-season. The signings of Jake Conklin and Austin Hooper were fantastic. QB Case Keenum is a good insurance policy. The biggest question is how well Kevin Stefanski will adapt to his new promotion at head coach? I personally like the hire and think this team needed change. I also think that they will be the team to compete with the Ravens to win this division. Baker Mayfield said it himself that its about actions and not words. He has grown up and I have Cleveland at 9.2 wins.
Action: Strong Lean over – Play that Cleveland finishes first in the division for +565 and second in the division for +200
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas win total 5.5
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Miami and LA Chargers
Key losses: QB Andy Dalton, T Cordy Glenn, TE Tyler Eifert, G John Miller, FS Clayton Fejedelem, ILB Nick Vigil, DT Andrew Billings
Key additions: DT DJ Reader, CB Trey Waynes, SS Von Bell, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, CB Mackensie Alexander, ILB Josh Byrnes
Whom they drafted: QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgens, LB Logan Wilson
Summary: This team did under achieve last year because their Pythagorean wins were 4.2 and they only won twice. There will be some new faces on both of the offense and the defense. The jury is still out for for me about coach Zach Taylor but what I do think is that Andy Dalton wasn’t that bad of a quarterback and what happened to the Bengals was more about bad management. In saying that, I think they did some nice things to improve the team for the future. A good start anyways. Getting 2 secondaries from Minnesota in Trey Waynes and MacKensie Alexander was a good move. I also like DJ Reader and Josh Byrnes. The Bengals 2 wins last year doesn’t completely tell the story due to AJ Green being gone and major injuries on the Offensive line. Now to the elephant in the room. Joe Burrow had the best performance last year in college football in the history of all quarterbacks. What he did at LSU was a great thing, but I also think it was system driven. You can’t expect the same impact this year in the pros without more offensive line help. The Bengals offensive line last year only ranked 30th in pro football focus. I think this team really missed out on the opportunity to improve that and due to this I think they will be the Cleveland Browns of last year at best. I have them at 5.7 wins.
We have a great and hopefully very informative show for you today! We get into the AFC North & South season win totals and division previews. First and foremost, Kiev answers a listener question on how to turn a $500 dollar free deposit bet into max profit and guaranteed profit! The scenario is maxed at +300 allowed based on a staggered parlay play both around ~+110 odds. So $500*3 = $1500 payout for 2 games parlayed and played at different times. at +110 the normal hedge odds of both bets would be -130. The equations are 1500 – z – x = y for break even max profit analysis. X is the amount of your bet. Y = x/1.3 which is your max profit rate at -130, Z = 1.3(x+y) which is max profit (hypothetical since we can’t win both hedge bets) and it simply becomes 2.3x due to the algebra. The main equation of (1500 – z – x) = y becomes (1500 – 2.3x – x) = x/1.3.
Next, we go into the divisional previews and how actual wins from 2019 compared to Pythagorean wins. We also get into how Kiev adjusts for last years injuries, strength of schedule, free agency losses, additions, trades and the draft. There are also a few plays for you as usual! Have a great weekend and stay safe everyone!
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