The Cubs enter at 54–43, while the Twins sit at 49–49, but the starting‑pitcher matchup flips the usual expectations.
Taj Bradley (MIN)
Bradley has been one of the American League’s best arms over the past month, posting a 2.32 ERA with elite underlying metrics (2.49 xERA, 3.25 xFIP). His fastball ranks in the 93rd percentile in run value, and he’s held opponents to a 33% hard‑hit rate over his last five starts.
Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Boyd’s surface numbers look solid — 2.86 ERA over the past month — but his advanced stats (4.82 xFIP, 5.59 xERA) suggest regression is coming. He struggles more against right‑handed hitters, and Minnesota can stack up to seven righties/switch hitters today.
🔍 Team Form & Trends
Twins: Recently surged, winning 7 of their last 10 before the break. Their offense is strong (.738 OPS, 8th in MLB), but pitching — especially the bullpen — has been shaky (5.19 ERA, 2nd worst in MLB).
Cubs: Offense leads the way, but pitching has been inconsistent. They’ve allowed 148 home runs, one of the highest totals in MLB. Still, they hold the top NL Wild Card spot.
Trend: Minnesota has hit the moneyline in 11 of their last 15 away games (+9.10 units).
🔵 Advanced Batting Stats — Twins vs. Cubs
Twins team wRC+ — 105, slightly above league average but not elite.
Twins right‑handed xwOBA — .342 over the last month, still a strong expected‑contact profile.
Twins hard‑hit rate — 44%, one of the highest recent marks in MLB.
Twins xSLG vs lefties — .423 expected slugging, outperforming their actual slump vs. LHP.
Carlos Correa xwOBA — .361 with a 12% barrel rate.
Royce Lewis xwOBA — .394 and a 50%+ hard‑hit rate.
Ryan Jeffers xSLG — .508 expected slugging and .350 xwOBA.
Cubs team wRC+ — 109, a legitimately strong offense by run‑creation metrics.
Cubs team xwOBA — .322, solid but not as powerful as the raw wRC+ suggests.
Cubs barrel rate — 7.1%, slightly below league average.
Cubs team xSLG — .401 expected slugging, lower than Minnesota’s .429.
Cody Bellinger xwOBA — .354 with a 10.8% barrel rate.
Seiya Suzuki xwOBA — .366 xwOBA and 45% hard‑hit rate.
Prediction:
I would call the pitching a push right now as Boyd may have worse advanced numbers, but he has better command than than Tosh Bradley.
The Twins tend to strike out more with a .322 team OBP while the Cubs are at .336
The Twins only rank 17th in wRC+ against lefties.
Both bullpens have struggled, yet the Cubs have the better numbers.
The
I have to give the nod to the Cubs here as I like them on the bounce. When the wind is blowing out like it is today to left field, this is a good sign the Cubs can put up some runs with lefties like Michael Bush & PCA.
James Madison enters 2026 as the Sun Belt favorite again — but with more uncertainty than any season since joining the FBS. A coaching change, a near‑total roster reset, and a wide‑open quarterback battle define the Dukes’ upcoming campaign, yet every major preview still projects them as a top‑tier Group of Six contender.
🟣 2026 Season Identity: A Reset With High Expectations
Billy Napier takes over after Bob Chesney’s departure to UCLA, inheriting a program that went 12‑2, won the Sun Belt Championship, and reached the College Football Playoff in 2025. But he also inherits massive turnover — only eight returning starters and a roster rebuilt through 37 transfer additions, the No. 2 portal class in the G6.
🔑 Key Storylines for 2026
1. Quarterback Battle
This is the biggest swing factor. Camden Coleman (Richmond transfer), Arrington Maiden (Memphis), JC Evans, Davi Belfort, and freshman Tanner Vibabul are all competing. No starter has been named, and previews consistently call this the defining question of the season.
2. New Offensive Identity
OC Cam Aiken brings tempo and a run‑heavy philosophy. JMU lost its starting QB, top two WRs, and star RB Wayne Knight, but added:
Nick Herman (FCS All‑American, Drake)
Jeremiah Harrison (ETSU)
Noah Grevious (VMI)
Corey Scott (West Florida) The OL is almost entirely rebuilt, with Kansas State transfer Kaedin Massey headlining the new group.
3. Elite Defense Is Gone:
The Duke’s only return two real starters on defense making this a tough rebuild after a huge season making the college football playoffs.
This unit ranks 137th in returning production at 23%.
Most of the unit is built up of second rate power 4 and junior college transfers.
📅 2026 Schedule Outlook
Non‑Conference
Liberty (Home) — Coin Flip. Strong opener energy.
Wagner (Home) — Win projected. Tune‑up game.
San Diego State (Away) — Most previews project a loss. SDSU’s continuity vs. JMU’s roster reset is the deciding factor.
Early Sun Belt Stretch
Old Dominion (Away) — Probably a loss; our models have
Marshall (Home) — Projected win; Marshall is a contender but JMU’s home field matters.
Georgia Southern (Away) – Coin flip – Georgia Southern returns a lot on defense.
November Tests
Road trips to App State and UCONN are the only late‑season “scare” spots.
🟣 Final Takeaway
James Madison will come into the season with a high ceiling as usual, but the variance here on how this season will go is extraordinarily high.
The Duke’s are on to their third coach in four years with Sun Belt Billy coming in. He could not hack it in the SEC, and he has been known to take plenty of time for development.
The schedule is easy, but there is not a lot of room for error when talking 9 wins. We have the Duke’s favored in 9 games, but there are quite a few coin flips out there as well.
The Duke’s rank 137 out of 138 teams in returning production. Almost every key player left the team to graduation or transfer. A few will try to walk on to an NFL team.
Never has a top team been this decimated coming into the next season. The hangover from making the playoffs will certainly play a role.
Taking the even money under 8.5 wins seems like a no brainer to me.
We have a great show for you today! Josh Nunn @Steponaduck from The Action Network @Actionapp is back to break down some more college football! First, Kiev talks about the upcoming football season and some memberships that we have available. Next, we get right into the AAC. Which teams are favorites? Which are sleepers? Then, we discuss every team and Josh’s thought on if they can be good or at least stir the pot. We have a few Best Bets as well! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a great show for you today! Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer from @SportsGrid is back to break down a huge week of sports. First, Kiev talks about how the world cup lost it’s luster. Next, Brady comes on and the boys get right into Royal Birkdale in the UK. What is the weather like? What stats are we using? Then, Brady talks about the favorites and the sleepers. After that, we talk about Brady’s best and long shots. Finally, we get into some NFL predictions. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The AFC West last year almost snuck another team into the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the late freak injury to Bo Nix completely derailed that opportunity. And speaking of quarterback injuries, the division also lost the NFL’s love child, Patrick Mahomes, about two‑thirds into the season — which suddenly made the AFC a whole lot more interesting.
The Chargers weren’t spared either, getting hit with the injury bug and losing both starting tackles plus a handful of linebackers. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Raiders were the healthiest squads… at least until the end, when the football gods remembered they existed.
Heading into 2026, the outlook is pretty even among the top three teams, while the Raiders finally landed their franchise quarterback. The AFC West draws the AFC East and NFC West this year — a schedule I’d call “medium hard,” like ordering wings that say spicy but you know they’re lying.
The big questions now are whether Mahomes can drag the Chiefs back to the big game, whether Jim Harbaugh can add a Super Bowl to go with his college football natty, and whether Sean Payton can add another trophy to his case. One thing’s certain: this division is going to be very interesting.
AFC West — OFFENSE (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
KC
0.042 (11)
44.5% (15)
0.093 (14)
–0.060 (20)
46.4% (20)
40.8% (22)
DEN
0.035 (15)
43.6% (19)
0.097 (13)
–0.069 (19)
44.4% (24)
42.3% (17)
LAC
–0.016 (24)
43.6% (18)
0.021 (23)
–0.080 (24)
46.1% (21)
39.1% (25)
LV
–0.192 (32)
38.6% (31)
–0.130 (29)
–0.304 (32)
42.7% (31)
31.1% (32)
AFC West — DEFENSE (2025 EPA Data)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
LAC
-0.077 (6)
41.6% (6)
-0.051 (6)
-0.121 (4)
42.7% (8)
39.7% (14)
DEN
-0.058 (8)
37.8% (1)
-0.035 (9)
-0.105 (8)
38.5% (1)
36.3% (8)
KC
-0.008 (12)
44.0% (14)
0.054 (16)
-0.100 (11)
47.1% (22)
39.5% (13)
LV
0.030 (20)
44.9% (18)
0.121 (22)
-0.090 (13)
48.1% (25)
40.8% (16)
Best Bet: Broncos Over 9.5 wins – 1 star
Odds to win the division:
Chiefs +170
Chargers +185
Broncos +210
Raiders +1500
1. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -115
2025 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 11.21
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Jaguars, @ Panthers, @ Steelers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Joe Lombardi, DT John Franklin-Meyers, LB Dre Greenlaw, S P.J. Locke
Key additions: OC Davis Webb, WR Jaylen Waddle, S Tycen Anderson
The Broncos were the number one seed in the AFC until Bo Nix went down at the end of their divisional playoff game against the Bills. How did they get there, you ask? Well, they certainly had some things break their way. The division clearly weakened with all the injuries, and Denver became the second‑most overachieving team in the league, winning 14 games despite a Pythagorean expectation of 11.21. Even with that bit of luck baked in, they were still the best team in the division.
Their offseason looked a lot like the Rams’ “known commodity over draft picks” approach, trading their first‑rounder for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. That move filled a glaring hole at receiver, and honestly, it’s an A+ decision — if you’re going for it, go for it. The Broncos weren’t flashy last season, ranking only 15th in offensive EPA, but they got the job done with the schedule they had. The good news is that the schedule remains medium‑easy this year, even for a first‑place team.
David Webb slides into the offensive coordinator role after serving as quarterbacks coach, so there’s no major philosophical shift despite Joe Lombardi heading to the Ravens. The defense is still the backbone of this team. Yes, they gave up explosive plays, but they also ranked number one in defensive success rate, which is exactly how they managed to rack up so many wins. The wildest part? The Broncos had a –3 turnover differential and still won 14 games. That’s legitimately impressive.
I don’t expect the defense to skip a beat — if anything, they might improve. And unlike the Chiefs’ situation, Bo Nix should be back for training camp, fully healthy after dealing with nothing more than a broken ankle. For now, I have the Broncos as the top team in this division.
My number: 11.11
Action – Over 9.5 wins – 1 star
Denver Broncos Power Rating: 3.5
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -130
2025 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.20
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Texans, @ Ravens, @ Buccaneers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses – DC Jessee Minter, OC Greg Roman, Edge Odafe Oweh, G Zion Johnson, CB Benjamin St-Juste, DT Da’shawn Hand, DT Otito Ogbonnia, G Mekhi Becton, RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, G Trevor Penning, WR Keenan Allen, RB Hassan Haskins
Key additions: OC Mike McDaniel, DC Chris O’Leary, C Tyler Biadasz, TE Charlie Kolar, G Cole Strange, RB Keaton Mitchell, FB Alec Ingold, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, TE David Njoku
Key draft picks: Edge Akheem Meidor, C Jake Slaughter, WR Brenen Thompson, T Travis Burke, S Genesis Smith, DT Nick Barrett
Summary:
The Chargers are bolting into Harbaugh’s third year with a whole lot of hope. The problem is that this team was injured from the jump, losing both offensive tackles — Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt — almost immediately. That certainly complicated life for Justin Herbert. The other complication? Not having actual playmakers. I could argue the Chargers have the worst skill‑position talent in the entire NFL. And honestly, that’s the Harbaugh way: get guys with no egos, play smash‑mouth football, and hope it works. It does… until your entire roster ends up on IR. If you want to revisit that philosophy, the Harbaugh roster build is a fascinating case study.
Offensively, this team ranked a poor 24th in EPA per play. Part of that was injuries, and part of it was simply not having anyone who scares a defense. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman got the boot and was replaced by offensive guru Mike McDaniel, who finally escaped Miami. This is a real upgrade. I expect Herbert and company to scheme their way into better situations. For more on that shift, the McDaniel impact should be significant.
The defense kept this team afloat, ranking 6th in EPA per play. But there have been changes. Odafe Oweh and Benjamin St‑Juste became too expensive, and neither was properly replaced. That could weaken the pass defense — and in this division, that’s not ideal. If you want to dig deeper, the Chargers defensive outlook has some red flags.
The biggest obstacle — besides a healthy Patrick Mahomes — is the schedule. The Chargers got absolutely hammered in rest disadvantage: –24 net rest days, the worst in the league. They play four teams coming off bye weeks and two teams coming off Thursday Night Football. That’s brutal, especially as rest has become one of the most important hidden edges in the NFL. For more on that, the Chargers rest disadvantage is worth a look.
All in all, there isn’t enough talent on this roster to take them to the promised land, even if they smash their way into the playoffs. Betting unders might be the best route — their totals record was 6‑11‑1 last season. They have a great coach and a below‑average team, and that combination usually leads to a lot of close, low‑scoring games.
My Number: 9.6 wins
Action – No Play
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.25
3. Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -130
2025 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 9.57
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Colts, @ Falcons, @ Bengals
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OC Matt Nagy, CB Jaylen Watson, CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook, LB Leo Chenal, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Marquise Brown, T Jawaan Taylor, Edge Charles Omenihu, CB Joshua Williams, RB Isiah Pacheco, CB Nazeeh Johnson, RB Kareem Hunt, T Wanya Morris
Key draft picks: CB Mansoor Delane, DT Peter Woods, Edge R Mason Thomas, CB Jadon Canady
Summary:
The Chiefs had the biggest under‑achieving season in the league, finishing with a massive –3.57 Pythagorean win differential. Even without Mahomes, this team still should have stumbled into at least nine wins. It was quite the opposite of the year before, when they massively overachieved and rattled off 15 regular‑season victories. So what the heck happened?
Sure, Patrick Mahomes got hurt in December, but let’s be honest — this team only had six wins and eight losses at that point. The problems started long before his knee did. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is gone and Eric Bieniemy is back, but both guys come from the Andy Reid school of coaching, so don’t expect some dramatic philosophical shift. The offensive line regressed badly, dropping to around a 20th‑place ranking, and that alone explains a big chunk of the offensive inconsistency.
We also don’t know when Mahomes will be fully healthy. Nine months of recovery for a torn ACL and LCL puts his Week 1 status in the “maybe, but let’s not bet the mortgage on it” category. The running back situation looks better now that Kenneth Walker III is in the building, but the receiver group is a bit of a mystery with Rashee Rice’s off‑field issues and Xavier Worthy’s health concerns. And Travis Kelce, bless him, is officially entering dinosaur age — still dangerous, but no longer the unstoppable force he once was.
The defense was their best unit, ranking 12th in EPA per play, but even that side of the ball saw turnover in the secondary and linebacker groups. Defensive end Felix Anudike‑Uzoma, who missed last preseason, is expected back, and he’ll join Chris Jones and George Karlaftis in trying to pressure the AFC West’s parade of star quarterbacks. Color me skeptical.
The Chiefs were massive under‑achievers from a Pythagorean standpoint, but even accounting for that, I don’t have them rated much higher than an average team right now. The schedule should theoretically keep them in the mix, but everything hinges on how Mahomes looks at the start of the season. Until we see that, Kansas City sits firmly in wait‑and‑see territory.
My Number: 9.79
Action lean over 9.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 1.25
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -130
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.67
Schedule: Medium – at large @ Saints, @ Browns, vs Titans
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Pete Carrol, QB Geno Smith, QB Kenny Pickett, T Stone Forsyth, G Alex Cappa, LB Elandon Roberts, RB Raheem Mostert
Key additions: Coach Klint Kubiak, OC Andrew Janocko, DC Rob Leonard, C Tyler Linderbaum, Edge Kwity Paye, LB Quay Walker, LB Nakobe Dean, WR Jalen Nailor, QB Kirk Cousins, TE Conner Heyward, T Spencer Burford
Key draft picks: QB Fernando Mendoza, CB Treydan Stukes, Edge Keyron Crawford, T Trey Zuhn III, CB Jermod McCoy
Summary:
Another year, another head coach for the Raiders. This time, though, it feels like they might have actually gotten it right. Klint Kubiak was more than solid with Sam Darnold in Seattle, guiding that offense all the way to a Super Bowl, and now he gets a full reset in Las Vegas. A lot is changing, and for once it looks like we might actually have a new and improved football team on our hands.
Say what you want about Kirk Cousins, but we’ve seen him thrive plenty of times with competent coaching. He’ll be a placeholder for top draft pick Fernando Mendoza, and the only real question is when Mendoza takes the reins. It could even be Week 1, which is exactly why this team is so hard to predict. Anything is better than last season’s dead‑last ranking in EPA, so the bar is not exactly high.
I like a lot of the free‑agency moves — the Raiders finally grabbed some dudes who can actually play football. Tight end Conner Heyward is a sneaky good addition and wildly underrated in space. He’ll get his snaps when he’s not busy blocking for Jeanty. Brock Bowers should be thrilled, because he’s going to get the lion’s share of the passing game with the wide receiver room still looking pretty thin.
On defense, the Raiders held onto Max Crosby after asking for the moon and stars in trade talks. They also made smart moves at linebacker and edge, reuniting Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker like it’s Georgia all over again. The downside? Just like the Chargers, they got absolutely shafted with a brutal –16 net rest‑day differential in the 2026–27 schedule. At least their at‑large schedule came out pretty easy.
If everything clicks — the coaching, the quarterback transition, the new additions — this Raiders team could easily be the most improved squad in the league for 2026.
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Conner McGregor vs Max Holloway -205
This matchup is one of the most fascinating stylistic rematches possible in MMA: the prime precision sniper vs. the pressure‑volume machine. Their first fight was a decade ago — and both men evolved into completely different fighters afterward. This preview focuses on how they match up today, using advanced striking metrics and tactical tendencies.
⚔️ Striking Profiles (Advanced Metrics)
Conor McGregor — Precision Counter Striker
Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM): 5.32
Striking Accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM): 4.66
Defense: 54%
Knockdown Rate: Among the highest in UFC history at featherweight/lightweight
Key Weapon: The pull‑counter left hand — elite timing, elite accuracy
Profile: Conor is at his best early, when timing is sharp and opponents haven’t adjusted to his counter traps. His power carries late, but his output drops significantly after Round 2.
Max Holloway — Volume Pressure Striker
SLpM: 7.26 (elite, top‑tier UFC history)
Striking Accuracy: 47%
SApM: 4.45
Defense: 56%
Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight: 445 (UFC record)
Key Weapon: Endless pace + jab feints + angle‑cutting
Profile: Max builds momentum. He’s not a one‑shot KO artist — he breaks opponents with pace, cardio, and accumulation. His durability and late‑round dominance are unmatched.
🔍 Tactical Matchup Breakdown
Early Rounds (1–2): Advantage McGregor
Conor’s timing is most dangerous early.
Max traditionally starts slower, reading patterns.
McGregor’s counter left is most effective against forward pressure — Holloway gives him that.
Middle & Late Rounds (3–5): Advantage Holloway
Max’s cardio is elite; Conor’s output historically drops.
Holloway’s volume overwhelms fighters who fade.
If Max survives the early sniper shots, he typically takes over.
🧠 Key X‑Factors
Durability: Holloway has one of the best chins in MMA history.
Power: McGregor still carries fight‑changing power at any weight.
Distance Management: Conor’s kicks vs. Max’s footwork — whoever controls range controls the fight.
📌 Prediction
The biggest story about this fight is the fact that Conner McGregor hasn’t fought in the UFC in over 5 years. One has to wonder how hard he has been training.
The bigger worry is that from December 2016 to 2026, Conner has only fought four times which makes this an even crazier situation.
Max Holloway was nice enough to move up yet another weight class from his origional featherweight at 145. Both fighers weighed in at about 170 for this Middleweight fight.
The key thing to me is that I do not think that McGregor has a gas tank anymore. Max on the other hand is three years younger and has massive recent wins against current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.
I think that Max just has to withstand a round or two, and then McGregor will be prime for the taking. It’s just been too long for Conner as much as I respect him for coming back to the octagon.
Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission -140 – 1 star
Bonus Play: 7/9 Tracy Cortez by sub +1300 – .25 stars Wang Cong by Dec +220 – .5 stars (FD) – I think that this fight can only go two ways. Cortez won’t win a long control fight. She needs to sub Wang Cong within the distance. I expect Wang to be the better striker, but Tracy has a great chin and has never been knocked out. Good value taking this two ways!
This matchup features a struggling Angels team with poor road performance (16–32) against a Twins squad hovering near .500 but showing stronger offensive power.
🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)
Grayson Rodriguez — Angels
8.06 ERA, 1.83 WHIP across 25.2 IP in 2026
8.6 K/9, showing strikeout ability but inconsistent command
Angels’ rotation: 29th in MLB, allowing 5.0 runs per game (RA/G)
Takeaway: Rodriguez has swing‑and‑miss stuff but severe run‑prevention issues. His expected metrics (xERA/xFIP not provided in sources) likely mirror his high ERA given the WHIP and contact allowed.
Zebby Matthews — Twins
4–5 record, 4.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 51 K
Twins’ rotation: 21st in MLB, allowing 5.1 runs per game (RA/G)
Takeaway: Matthews is a control‑first arm with a solid WHIP and better underlying stability than Rodriguez. His profile fits well against an Angels lineup that strikes out often (879 Ks).
📊 Team Metrics
Minnesota Twins
118 home runs — 4th in AL (elite power)
24–24 at home, neutral home‑field performance
Run production: 4.9 R/G, Run prevention: 5.1 RA/G (slightly negative differential)
Run production: 4.5 R/G, Run prevention: 5.0 RA/G (negative differential)
⚾ Key Advanced Matchups
Twins power (118 HR) vs. Rodriguez’s high WHIP (1.83) → Major danger for Angels.
Angels strikeout rate (879 Ks) vs. Matthews’ control profile → Favors Minnesota.
Angels 18–7 when hitting 2+ HR — but Twins’ pitching limits HR bursts.
🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)
Grayson Rodriguez — Angels
8.06 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8.6 K/9 | 4.2 BB/9
Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 43%
Barrel Rate Allowed: 11%
xBA Allowed: .286
Angels rotation: 29th in MLB, allowing 5.0 RA/G
Profile: High strikeout upside but extreme volatility. WHIP and contact quality allowed suggest his ERA is not a fluke — regression is not the issue; performance is.
Zebby Matthews — Twins
4.43 ERA | 1.16 WHIP
51 K | 12 BB (excellent control profile)
Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 36%
xBA Allowed: .238
Twins rotation: 21st in MLB, allowing 5.1 RA/G
Profile: Not overpowering, but efficient. His WHIP and expected stats show he limits damage and avoids big innings — ideal against a strikeout‑heavy Angels lineup.
📊 Team Advanced Metrics
Minnesota Twins
118 HR (Top‑5 in AL)
108 wRC+ over last 30 games
.329 xwOBA (top‑tier contact quality)
Bullpen xFIP: 3.78 (above average)
Home record: 24–24
Run Differential: –10 (but trending upward)
ESPN Analytics Win Probability: 65%
Los Angeles Angels
99 wRC+ (slightly below average)
.315 xwOBA
Strikeouts: 879 (bottom‑third in MLB)
Bullpen xFIP: 4.72 (bottom‑five)
Road record: 16–32
Run Differential: –50
⚾ Key Advanced Matchups
Twins Hard‑Hit Rate (41%) vs. Rodriguez Hard‑Hit Allowed (43%) → Major mismatch.
Angels K‑Rate vs. Matthews’ elite control → Favors Minnesota.
Twins power (118 HR) vs. Angels bullpen xFIP 4.72 → Late‑game scoring edge.
Angels 18–7 when hitting 2+ HR, but Twins’ pitching suppresses HR bursts.
📌 Prediction
This isn’t hard. The Angles are the worst team in baseball with a pitcher in Grayson Rodriguez with a terrible 8.06 ERA and 5.14 FIP. He hasn’t been the same since surgery.
Zebby Matthews isn’t a great pitcher for the Twins, but his ERA is lower at 4.43.
The Twinkies rank 6th in wRC+ (runs created) while the Angels rank 20th.
The Angels are coming off of a tough loss against the Rangers and have to Travel a few hours flight to the Twin Cities.
The Twins had an obvious loss against the Guardians, but they are still in the hunt for the division only two games back.
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @VegasInsider & @MajorWager is back to break down some College Football and UFC! First, Kiev talks about the craziness of the world cup. Next, Brian comes in and the guys get right into some SEC. What’s going on with the Gators and Jon Sumrall? Then, we talk some SEC having thoughts on every single team with their Vegas win total. We have some Best Bets! After that, we talk some long shots. Finally, we get into some UFC 329 McGregor vs Holloway! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The AFC East was a bad division that just happened to produce a Super Bowl team thanks to a whole lot of chaos breaking the right way. The Bills once again choked when they had the opportunity of a lifetime, while the Patriots slid into the big game with the easiest schedule in recent memory. It’s still wild that the Bills were –260 to win the division while the Patriots sat at +475. Funny how that worked out, especially considering the Bills also had a pretty easy schedule and still managed to fold when the games actually mattered. At least they snuck in as a wildcard. If you want to revisit that mess, the Bills collapse is a case study in wasted potential.
The Dolphins were complete trash most of the year — unless they woke up feeling dangerous, which happened exactly twice when they beat the Falcons and Bills by double digits. The Jets, meanwhile, were very Jets‑like, once again finishing as the worst team in the league. For 2026/2027, the division gets a shake‑up with two new coaching staffs and enough offseason drama to fill a documentary. If you want to dig into that chaos, the AFC East drama is worth a look.
From a schedule standpoint, the AFC East draws the AFC West and the NFC North — a combination I’d call legitimately difficult. No more cakewalks, no more accidental Super Bowl runs. This year, the division actually has to earn it. Let’s see how it looks.
AFC East – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
NE
0.155 (1)
48.2% (4)
0.308 (1)
-0.089 (25)
54.6% (1)
38.0% (26)
BUF
0.145 (3)
48.8% (2)
0.230 (4)
0.039 (2)
50.5% (6)
46.6% (2)
MIA
-0.021 (25)
42.1% (27)
-0.016 (26)
-0.028 (9)
43.4% (27)
40.3% (20)
NYJ
-0.129 (29)
40.5% (29)
-0.137 (30)
-0.117 (27)
39.9% (30)
41.4% (16)
AFC East – Full Defensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
BUF
-0.007 (13)
43.0% (12)
-0.049 (8)
0.049 (32)
42.9% (9)
43.3% (24)
NE
-0.040 (11)
44.9% (17)
-0.018 (10)
-0.077 (12)
46.2% (18)
43.0% (23)
MIA
0.087 (25)
48.2% (29)
0.178 (27)
-0.046 (~20)
52.3% (29)
42.3% (19)
NYJ
0.147 (30)
45.7% (24)
0.291 (32)
-0.034 (~22)
49.1% (27)
41.4% (17)
Best bet: Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star
Odds to win the Division
Bills -125
Patriots +120
Jets +1900
Dolphins +4000
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120
2025 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.32
Schedule: Medium – at large @ Texans, @ Rams, vs The Ravens
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Sean McDermott, LB Matt Milano, Edge Joey Bosa, DT DaQuan Jones, WR Curtis Samuel, DT Larry Ogunjobi, S Taylor Rapp, CB Tre’Davious White, G David Edwards, QB Mitch Trubisky, CB Cam Lewis
Key additions: Coach Joe Brady, DC Jim Leonard, OC Pete Carmichael Jr., WR DJ Moore, Edge Bradley Chubb, CB Dee Alford, QB Kyle Allen, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, C Austin Corbett
The Sean McDermott era ends with a completed pass being called an interception thanks to yet another round of game‑changing NFL officiating. Fitting, honestly. And yes, I agree — it was time. McDermott had plenty of chances with Josh Allen to finally break through to the promised land, yet every season ended with the same “close but not close enough” feeling. Now we finally get to see Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator behind that absurd 2019 LSU offense, take over as head coach. It feels like a refreshing reset for Josh Allen’s career. If you want to revisit that coaching shift, the Joe Brady hire is one of the biggest storylines in the AFC.
Looking at the numbers, the offense hasn’t been the problem. Josh Allen dragged a receiver‑less roster to 3rd in offensive EPA per play, which is borderline miraculous. The Bills dealt with a ridiculous number of injuries on both sides of the ball, yet still managed to stay afloat. This year, they finally get a real playmaker at wide receiver in DJ Moore — the first true WR1 they’ve had since Stefon Diggs. James Cook remains the bell cow at running back, with enough depth behind him to keep the rotation fresh. For more on that upgrade, the Bills offensive outlook looks legitimately dangerous.
The defense did lose some legendary pieces in Matt Milano and Taylor Rapp, but they also got younger at several spots. As long as the draft hits, the talent infusion should help. The best addition, though, is defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. I truly believe he can turn this group around from ranking 32nd in opponent rush EPA to something respectable — maybe even middle of the pack. His scheme fits the personnel, and his track record speaks for itself. If you want to dig deeper, the Leonhard defensive impact is worth watching.
I’m genuinely excited for this Bills team in 2026. They finally have a modern offensive mind, a real WR1, a healthier roster, and a defensive coordinator who can fix their biggest weakness. I think they win the division — and for once, it might not require divine intervention or a miracle whistle.
My Number: 11.16
Action– Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star
Power Rating: 4.25
2. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 12.54
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Seahawks, vs Steelers, @ Jaguars,
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: WR Stephon Diggs, Edge Jahlani Tavai, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Jalen Hawkins, T Vederian Love, LB Jack Gibbens, TE Austin Hooper
Key additions: WR AJ Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Edge Dre’Mont Jones, TE Julian Hill, FB Reggie Gillman, S Kevin Byard, LB KJ Britt
Key Draft Picks: T Caleb Lomu, Edge Gabe Jacas, TE Eli Raridon, CB Karon Prunty, T Dametrious Crownover
Summary:
The hype was absolutely correct on the Patriots last year as they went from four wins to fourteen. I will say, though, that having the easiest schedule in recent NFL history certainly helped. Nonetheless, this was a good team. Were they great? I’m not so sure. Losing to the Raiders and Steelers was… let’s call it “character‑building.” If you want to revisit that rollercoaster, the Patriots 2025 surge is worth a look.
On offense, Drake Maye has proven he’s a franchise quarterback — which is massive. Losing Stefon Diggs hurts far less when A.J. Brown walks through the door to replace him. The Pats have two solid running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Darrell Henderson, and the offensive line looks more stable than it’s been in years. Even with the cupcake schedule, this team was legitimately formidable. For more on that unit, the Patriots offensive outlook is trending upward.
The problem lies with the defense, which ranked 23rd in opponent rushing success rate and 18th in dropback success rate. In other words, they gave up first downs but not a ton of explosive plays — great when you’re playing tomato cans all year, maybe not ideal for the upcoming season. I still feel they didn’t fix the run defense. Maybe they’re leaning into the classic bend‑but‑don’t‑break philosophy, but they also need to replace edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who left in free agency. Dre’Mont Jones is a downgrade there. If you want to dig deeper, the Patriots defensive concerns remain very real.
The good news? The Patriots luck into another pretty easy schedule thanks to a soft division. It’s also kind of weird that their first three games are all their at‑large opponents — a strange quirk that could either help them start hot or expose them early. And yes, the Vrabel drama will continue to hover over this team like a storm cloud. For more on that saga, the Vrabel fallout is still lingering.
All in all, I have the Patriots 2.75 points better than the average team heading into 2026. Not elite, not fraudulent — just a good team with a favorable path and a few glaring weaknesses that could matter when the schedule finally toughens up.
My Number: 10.77 wins
New England Patriots Power Rating: 2.75
3. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:5.5 juiced to the over -120
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.42
Schedule: Easy – at large @ Titans, vs Browns, @ Cardinals
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: OC Tanner Engstrand, DC Steve Wilks, QB Justin Fields, T/G Alijay Vera-Tucker, G John Simpson, LB Quincy Williams, Edge Michael Clemons, K Nick Folk, QB Tyrod Taylor, S Tony Adams, WR Josh Reynolds
Key additions: DC Brian Duker, OC Frank Reich, QB Geno Smith, Edge Joseph Ossai, LB Demario Davis, Edge Kingsley Enagbare, S Dane Belton, CB Nahshon Wright, S Andre Cisco
Whom they drafted: Edge David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Omar Cooper, CB D’Angelo Ponds, QB Cade Klubnik
Summary:
From Justin Fields to Geno Smith — what could possibly go wrong? I asked myself that exact same question last year when Fields was signed, and here we are again. The Jets always seem to have talent, but never the person who can actually put it all together. And rather than blaming head coach Aaron Glenn, we of course fire the coordinators first, saying goodbye to Tanner Engstrand and Steve Wilks. Frank Reich comes in as offensive coordinator with plenty of experience, yet he hasn’t exactly lit up a scoreboard since the Andrew Luck era. If you want to revisit that carousel, the Jets coaching shuffle is a whole saga.
Geno Smith returns from the past with some off‑field drama, including domestic assault violations that could derail his season before it starts. That means sixth‑round pick Cade Klubnik may have to be “the guy,” which is… terrifying. This team ranked a putrid 29th in offensive EPA and 30th on defense, even with big names like Breece Hall at running back and Garrett Wilson at wide receiver. The draft pick of Omar Cooper Jr. could pay off if they get competent quarterback play, but Geno doesn’t exactly look past his first checkdown very often. For more on that mess, the Jets QB situation is one of the league’s biggest question marks.
I do like the pick of David Bailey at edge — he showed real technique and upside — and if Will McDonald finally steps up, the defensive line could actually be decent. Linebacker Demario Davis comes in hoping to revamp his NFL career with a fresh start, but if things go south, they could go way south, especially with a secondary full of question marks. The upside is there to be close to average, but realistically, this feels like a six‑win team. If you want to dig deeper, the Jets roster outlook paints the same picture.
The Jets have talent. They always have talent. But until someone actually connects the dots, it’s hard to expect anything more than another year of “Jets being Jets.”
My Number: 6.21
Action – Lean over
New York Jets Power Rating: -7
4.Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under -120
2025 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.64
Schedule: Hard – At large @ 49ers, vs Bengals, @ Colts
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Mike McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, Edge Bradley Chubb, G Cole Strange, G James Daniels, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, G Liam Echenberg, TE Darren Waller, T Larry Borom, TE Julian Hill, FB Alec Ingold
Key additions: Coach Jeff Hafley, OC Bobby Slowik, DC Sean Duggan, QB Malik Willis, TE Greg Dulcich
Whom they drafted: T Kaydn Proctor, CB Chris Johnson, LB Jacob Rodriguez, WR Caleb Douglas, TE Will Kacmarek, WR Chris Bell and a bunch of dudes.
Summary:
Unfortunately, the Miami Dolphins just couldn’t get it done with Mike McDaniel. He was simply too cool for Miami and will now take his talents to San Diego. Anyway, the only thing you really need to know about the Dolphins is that they completely gutted this roster. The Malik Willis signing is just a band‑aid to save face, but make no mistake — this team is absolutely trying to land a real quarterback in the next draft class. If you want to revisit that teardown, the Dolphins reset tells the whole story.
There isn’t much to say except that they got a steal with Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez late in the second round. I genuinely believe he could be Defensive Rookie of the Year, especially since the Dolphins won’t have much else to look forward to. Running back De’Von Achane is probably the only exciting thing on offense — and that’s only if the offensive line holds up. This unit ranked 29th last season and will be completely revamped for 2026. When your “number one receiver” is Malik Washington, that tells you everything: they do not have a number one receiver. For more on that offensive collapse, the Dolphins skill positions are a full rebuild.
The defense also took big hits, losing Bradley Chubb and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu. They at least hired a defensive‑minded coach in Jeff Hafley, who should keep the unit respectable, but there’s only so much duct tape you can apply. Hafley’s scheme should help stabilize things, but the talent drain is real. If you want to dig deeper, the Hafley defensive impact is worth watching.
My Number: 3.85 wins
Action – Lean Under but take Jacob Rodriguez +2200 for defensive rookie of the year.
