We have a HUGE show for you today! The 150th run for the roses is back, and we bring in the heavy hitters in Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @WagerTalk and Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from @FoxSports. First, Kiev recaps a great betting weekend for the NFL draft as well as some teams that really missed the boat. Next, Chris and Marco come on and the guys get right into a huge bet that Chris just missed out on for MLB the very last day of April. Then, the guys get into some football with some Jets, Steelers and Bears talk. Chris also talks some college football bets. After that, we get into the 2024 Kentucky Derby! Which horses are we throwing off of our ticket? Which horses might hit the board? Who are some of the long shots that we think could make some noise! Finally, Kiev gets into some UFC 301 with a few plays that he likes for this big event! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Last week, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry clinched victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, triumphing over Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer in an intense playoff. McIlroy, hailing from Northern Ireland, secured his 25th PGA TOUR title, marking his first win of the season. Meanwhile, Lowry, representing Ireland, celebrated his third PGA TOUR victory. Both golfers earned approximately $1.29 million in prize money and garnered 400 FedExCup points each for their stellar performance.
Lets get into this weeks storylines…
Jason Day is back at TPC Craig Ranch with hopes of achieving consecutive victories. K.H. Lee managed to defend his title as champion in 2022-23. Day, who previously triumphed in this event in 2010, aims to add another win to his impressive record.
Tournament Information:
Dates: May 2nd, 2024 – May 5th, 2024
Location: McKinney, Texas, United States
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,414 yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Bentgrass .100”
Fairways: Zoysiagrass .450”
Rough: Bermudagrass 2.75”
Bunkers: 83
Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
Average Green Size: 6,778 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
Purse/ Winner:$9,500,000 /$1,710,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field: 156 Players
Cut:Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
Playoff Format: Sudden-Death (18,18,10,18)
Course Scoring Average:
Historic Cut Line:
2023: -4
2022: -5
2021: -6
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Tom Weiskopf (2004)
Recent Renovations: N/A
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Grand Reserve Golf Club – Puerto Rico Open – RESULTS
Vidanta Vallarta – Mexico Open at Vidanta – RESULTS
The CJ CUP Byron Nelson is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour named after golfer Byron Nelson. It has a rich history dating back to 1944 when it was first played as the Texas Victory Open. Nelson, a legendary golfer who won 11 consecutive tournaments in 1945, was a beloved figure in the golfing world.
The tournament has undergone several name changes and course locations throughout its history. It was held at various courses in the Dallas/Fort Worth area before settling at its current location, TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, in 2021.
Most Tournament Wins:
4, Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980)
72-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
261, Jason Day (2023)
18-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
60, Sebastian Munoz (Round 1, 2022 at TPC Craig Ranch), S.Y. Noh (Round 1, 2023 at TPC Craig Ranch)
Largest Margin of Victory:
10 Strokes, Sam Snead (1957)
Course Guide/ Scorecard
Originally crafted by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.
In terms of length, TPC Craig Ranch is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,414 yards. It ranks 10th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 8 of 44, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,778 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour.
The four Par 3’s range between 147 yards and 232 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except No. 17.
No. 7, 232 Yards, Par 3: “This is a large green that slopes back to front. It is best to miss your tee shot short right, this will give you the best opportunity to get up and down.”
No. 17, 232 Yards, Par 3: “A true sleeper par 3, don’t let the yardage fool you. The wind will make hitting this green a true test. Any shot coming up short will be punished by the false front on the green and may roll back into the front bunker.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Craig Ranch with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards.No. 14 is the shortest listed at 330 yards with the longest being No. 13, playing 512 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 16 (+0.202).
No. 6, 361 Yards, Par 4: “This is a short par 4 that brings a lot of strategy into play. The fairway is well protected by bunkers, if you want to attack this hole finding the fairway is a must. If you hit driver off the tee and get to close to the green, attacking a front pin location is difficult. This is one of our smallest greens, be aggressive if find the fairway and have a wedge in your hand.”
No. 14, 330 Yards, Par 4: “This short par four is a through risk/reward hole. The shorter hitters have to decide what yardage second shot they want to have, there is more room right off the tee than appears. Most big hitter will take on the green, the bunkers right are always there to catch a bail out shot. This is one of our most undulated greens, you have to be accurate with your wedges if you want to make birdie.”
No. 16, 492 Yards, Par 4: “A long and testing par four, into the wind this hole will challenge the best of players. You have to avoid the bunkers down the left if you want to hit this green in two. The bunkers front right hide what is one of the biggest greens on the course. Hitting the middle of this green is never a bad play. There is a severe slope on the left side of the green, and getting up and down from the chipping area is hard.”
There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 9 with a scoring average of 4.429.
No. 9, 564 Yards, Par 5: “This is a tough tee shot on a windy day because of the forced carry. Plenty of room right off the tee, playing down the left side will result in more run out and better angle to the green. The big decision you have to make is with your lay up, being aggressive and taking on the creek opens up the green for third shot. This green has three tiers, distance and spin control with your wedge shot is a must.”
No. 18, 552 Yards, Par 5: “Another risk/reward hole to finish, there is a large landing area for those who have to lay up. The longer hitter off the tee will have an approach shot between 220-250 to the middle of the green. This green has two distinct levels, and if you want to make birdie being on the correct level is a must.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 14
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC Craig Ranch
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.46
295.16
Driving Accuracy
62%
61%
GIR Percentage
66%
70%
Avg. GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.08
34.75
Scrambling Percentage
58%
67%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.40
Strokes Gained: Approach
Each of the past three winners ranked 8th or betterin SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge
Ryan Moore
Keith Mitchell
Jake Knapp
Kelly Kraft
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Each of the past three winners ranked 23rd or betterin SG: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Yu
Kevin Dougherty
Keith Mitchell
Alejandro Tosti
Cameron Champ
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The greens at TPC Craig Ranch are Bentgrass .100”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Maverick McNealy
Aaron Baddeley
Thorbjorn Olesen
Dylan Wu
Garrick Higgo
Birdies or Better Gained
The last five winners of this event have been -23 or better. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity that presents itself.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Matti Schmid
Wesley Bryan
Tom Hoge
Taylor Pendrith
Keith Mitchell
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Si Woo Kim
Chez Reavie
Alexander Bjork
Davis Thompson
Martin Laird
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Maverick McNealy
Erik Barnes
Tom Hoge
Stephan Jaeger
Max Greyserman
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
All three of the Par 5’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Alex Noren
Nick Dunlap
Thorbjorn Olesen
Jason Day
Thomas Detry
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Robert Macintyre
Andrew Novak
Kevin Yu
Thorbjorn Olesen
Patrick Fishburn
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at TPC Craig Ranch hasn’t proven to be extremly advantageous. However, we have seen multiple players in the past few years win twice at this course including Jason Day, K.H. Lee, and Sergio Garcia.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Daniel Berger (3 Events – 67.17 Scoring Average per Round)
Marty Dou Zecheng (2 Events – 67.17 Scoring Average per Round)
Kyounghoon Lee (4 Events – 67.20 Scoring Average per Round)
Byeong-Hun An (2 Events – 67.38 Scoring Average per Round)
Tom Kim (2 Events – 67.63 Scoring Average per Round)
The Field:
This year’s THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Jason Day (’23, ’10), K.H. Lee (’22, ’21), Sung Kang (’20),
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alex Smalley, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Nyfjall, Erik Barnes, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jarred Jeter, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, Kris Kim, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Nick Hardy, Nicolas Echavarria, Norman Xiong, Patrick Fishburn, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Taiga Semikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Trace Crowe, Wilson Furr
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.
Jordan Spieth (+1400) finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2022, which was the last time he played at TPC Craig Ranch. The University of Texas product has been struggling as of late missing the cut in three of his last five starts. In his ten starts this season on the PGA Tour, Speith has only finished inside the top 10 three times.
Si Woo Kim (+1600) finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson last season. He’s finished inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts this year. He’s also yet to miss a cut which is impressive as well.
Jason Day (+2000) has won the AT&T Byron Nelson twice before and is the current defending champion. He has finished inside the top 10 three times this season and is coming off an impressive finish at the RBC Heritage where he placed T18.
Alex Noren (+2200) finished T12 (2022) and T21 (2021) in his last two starts at this venue. He enters this event in good form having finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.
Adam Scott (+2200) won this event back in 2008. He’s played in seven events this season having finished inside the top 20 in five of his starts.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
In the past three editions of this event, the winning score has been below 260.5 (-23.5) twice.
To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -500)
In the past five editions of this event, there has not been a playoff. However, in both 2017 and 2016, there was a playoff.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch
Trinity Forest Golf Club
Trinity Forest Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (perround)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Daniel Berger
3
67.17
–
–
T3
T23
–
K.H. Lee
4
67.20
T50
WON
WON
MDF
–
Tom Kim
2
67.63
T34
T17
–
–
–
Bronson Burgoon
3
67.83
–
–
T13
–
T16
Alexander Noren
3
67.92
–
T12
T21
T35
–
Matt Kuchar
14
68.69
T43
T12
T17
–
–
Jordan Spieth
11
68.74
–
2
T9
T29
T21
Recent Donkeys for Courses:
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch
Trinity Forest Golf Club
Trinity Forest Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg. (perround)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Ryan Brehm
4
69.92
64
MC
MC
–
–
Michael Kim
6
70.22
MC
–
67
MC
MC
Ryan Moore
8
70.55
MC
–
MC
T69
–
Chesson Hadley
4
70.60
MC
T69
MC
–
–
Jim Herman
7
70.89
T70
MC
–
MC
–
Benjamin Silverman
2
71.00
–
–
–
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
4
71.22
MC
T76
MC
WD
–
Greyson Sigg
2
71.25
MC
MC
–
–
–
Kelly Kraft
9
71.32
T79
MC
MC
MC
MC
Austin Cook
5
71.33
MC
MC
T71
MC
–
Dylan Wu
2
71.50
MC
MC
–
–
–
MJ Daffue
2
71.50
MC
–
MC
–
–
Pierceson Coody
2
71.75
MC
–
MC
–
–
Kevin Chappell
4
71.88
MC
–
MC
–
–
Josh Teater
7
72.20
–
–
MC
MC
–
Mac Meissner
2
72.50
MC
MC
–
–
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Jason Day (-23)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jason Day
12th
1st
3rd
31st
28th
2022: K.H. Lee (-26)
Price: 125-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
K.H. Lee
20th
5th
8th
10th
13th
2021: K.H. Lee (-25)
Price: 200-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
K.H. Lee
23rd
2nd
2nd
24th
9th
2019: Sung Kang (-23)
Price: 125-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sung Kang
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Aaron Wise
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Previous Winners Incoming Form
2023: Jason Day
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T39 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
T5 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T10 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2022: K.H. Lee
T25 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – The Masters (PGA)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
2021: K.H. Lee
T58 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T29 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T23 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T56 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T23 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2019: Sung Kang
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T42 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T18 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T47 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
2018: Aaron Wise
T2 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T32 – Houston Open (PGA)
T41 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Jason Day
2022
2021
2017
2013
2012
2011
2010
Jason Day
T51
MC
2
T27
T9
5
WON
2022: K.H. Lee
2021
2019
K.H. Lee
WON
MDF
2021: K.H. Lee
2019
K.H. Lee
MDF
2019: Sung Kang
2018
2017
2016
2012
2011
Sung Kang
T42
T20
T34
MC
MC
2018: Aaron Wise
Tournament Debut
Picks (Outrights):
Tom Hoge (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Keith Mitchell (+4000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Mackenzie Hughes (+4500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Chan Kim (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Nate Lashley (+9000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Justin Lower (+9000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
C.T. Pan (+10000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.99 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Byeong-Huh An (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Seamus Power (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Justin Lower (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Matti Schmid (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
This should be interesting today in Baltimore. The Os lost to the As yesterday in ugly 3-2 fashion. How does this happen? Well, the As aren’t as bad as they were last year. JP Sears takes the mound today for Oakland, who had a nice start to the season at 3.38 ERA and 4.25 FIP. Is this sustainable? Probably not. Last year those numbers were below average at 4.54 ERA and a 5.15 FIP. Cole Irvin takes the mound for Baltimore who had a rougher start to the season at a 4.63 ERA, but a decent 4.11 FIP. I see positive regression in his future. The key here for me is that both of these pitchers are lefties. Baltimore rank number three in wRC+ against lefties while Oakland ranks 22nd. This As team also struggles to create runs in general ranking 29th in total runs thus far this season. Baltimore is number six in runs. I have to take the 0s here both on the RL and the ML.
Tonight in the NHL, we’re in for a thrilling lineup of two playoff games. Let’s delve into the matchups that promise excitement and highlight some intriguing player props worth your attention.
Matchups:
Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Florida Panthers 2 – Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
-115
-105
+1.5 (-270)
o6.0 (-112)
Tampa Bay Lightning
-105
-115
-1.5 (+220)
u6.0 (-108)
FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky [CONFIRMED]
TBL: Andrei Vasilevskiy [EXPECTED]
Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Series: Carolina Hurricanes 2 – New York Islanders 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Carolina Hurricanes
-155
-166
-1.5 (+164)
o5.5 (-105)
New York Islanders
+130
+140
+1.5 (-198)
u5.5 (-115)
CAR: Frederick Anderson [EXPECTED]
NYI: Ilya Sorokin [CONFIRMED]
Picks:
Bryaden Point over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Brayden Point occupies a key role on Tampa Bay’s top line alongside Anthony Duclair and Nikita Kucherov, forming a formidable trio. Furthermore, he plays a significant part on Tampa Bay’s first Powerplay unit, which is expected to capitalize on numerous opportunities in tonight’s game. In the first two games of the series, the Lightning had eight Power Play opportunites, scoring on the man advanatge in each game.
Point has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four out of his last five games. In the opening game, he managed four shots on goal out of five shot attempts and also led the Tampa Bay forwards in ice time. In the second game, he only had one shot on goal out of four shot attempts.
At home this season, Point was much better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 73.2% of the games compared to just 42.5% on the road.
Additionally, Point boasts an impressive track record against Florida, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in ten of their last thirteen encounters.
Bo Horvat over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-112) – BetRivers
Bo Horvat occupies a key role on New Yorks’s top line alongside Casey Cizikas and Mathew Barzal, forming a formidable trio. Furthermore, he plays a significant part on New York’s first Powerplay unit. In the first two games of the series, the Islanders only had three Power Play opportunites, but did score on their lone man advanatge last game.
Horvat has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four out of his last five games. In the opening game, he managed five shots on goal out of six shot attempts. In the second game, he had three shots on goal out of four shot attempts. In each of the first two games of the series Horvat led the New York forwards in ice time.
Kyle Palmeri over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110) – DraftKings
Kyle Palmeri occupies a key role on New Yorks’s second line alongside Hudson Fasching and Brock Nelson, forming a formidable trio. Furthermore, he plays a significant part on New York’s first Powerplay unit. In the first two games of the series, the Islanders only had three Power Play opportunites, but did score on their lone man advanatge last game.
Palmeri has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four out of his last five games. In the opening game, he managed just two shots on goal out of four shot attempts. In the second game, he had four shots on goal out of six shot attempts. Palmeri was fanastic in the second game leading the team in expected goals with 1.16.
At home this season, Palmeri was better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 51.2% of the games compared to just 43.9% on the road.
Longshot Same Game Parlays:
I’ve received a few DMs over the last few days requesting some same game parlays. Here are my personal plays for tonight’s games. Given that these are longshot parlays, I suggest placing 0.25 units or less on them.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! Ron @RonAceSports from the inside blitz comes back to break down some NFL draft plays! First, Ron and Kiev talk about what they think might happen with JJ McCarthy. Next, Ron talks about his drat groupings and who picks picked where. Then, the guys get into what some particular teams will do with their pick. After that, Ron and Kiev give out some FREE PLAYS for the 2024 NFL Draft! Finally, Kiev talks a little bit about Reggie Bush getting his Heisman trophy back! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY MLB BASEBALL PACKAGE or 50% OFF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 30th 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise. Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
Tonight in the NHL, we’re in for a thrilling lineup of three playoff games. Let’s delve into the matchups that promise excitement and highlight some intriguing player props worth your attention.
Matchups:
Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Boston Bruins 1 – Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Boston Bruins
-115
-108
+1.5 (-278)
o6.0 (-102)
Toronto Maple Leafs
-105
-112
-1.5 (+225)
u6.0 (-118)
Following Boston’s victory in Game 1, the Leafs leveled the series by clinching a 3-2 win in the second game. Auston Matthews emerged as Toronto’s standout player, playing a pivotal role in all three of the Leafs’ goals. Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov showed significant improvement in Game 2, recording a +0.51 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The Bruins opted for Linus Ulmark in the second game, which didn’t yield favorable results as he ended with a -0.03 GSAx, contrasting Jeremy Swayman’s stellar performance in the series opener.
As for William Nylander, despite participating in Leafs’ practices, he has yet to make an appearance in this postseason, with his status for Game 3 remaining uncertain
BOS: Jeremy Swayman [CONFIRMED]
TOR: Ilya Samsonov [CONFIRMED]
Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Series: Vegas Golden Knights 1 – Dallas Stars 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Vegas Golden Knights
+120
+136
+1.5 (-192)
o6.0 (-108)
Dallas Stars
-142
-162
-1.5 (+160)
u6.0 (-112)
In the series opener, the Vegas Golden Knights secured a victory despite being outshot 29-15. Jake Oettinger faced challenges in the net for Dallas, concluding the game with a -1.18 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). Notably, Mark Stone made a remarkable return, scoring in his first game back since suffering a lacerated spleen on Feb. 20. Additionally, Noah Hanifin, acquired late in the season, and Jack Eichel both contributed with two assists each for the Golden Knights.
VGK: Logan Thompson [CONFIRMED]
DAL: Jake Oettinger [CONFIRMED]
Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Series: Los Angeles Kings 0 – Edmonton Oilers 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Los Angeles Kings
+150
+160
+1.5 (-115)
o6.0 (-115)
Edmonton Oilers
-180
-192
-1.5 (+130)
u6.0 (-105)
In the opening game of the series, the Edmonton Oilers asserted their dominance, spearheaded by Connor McDavid’s exceptional performance with five assists. Zach Hyman capitalized on McDavid’s playmaking prowess, notching a hat-trick, while Evan Bouchard shone with four assists. Leon Draisaitl and Adam Henrique also made significant contributions, each securing multi-point performances. Adrian Kempe stood out as the sole player on the Kings to tally more than one point.
However, goaltending proved to be a challenge for both teams. Cam Talbot struggled between the pipes for Los Angeles, ending the game with a -1.57 GSAx. Similarly, Stuart Skinner faced difficulties for the Oilers, finishing with a -0.58 GSAx.
LAK: Cam Talbot [CONFIRMED]
EDM: Stuart Skinner [CONFIRMED]
Same Game Parlay:
Auston Matthews over 4.5 Shots on Goal + Max Domi over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+144) – DraftKings
Despite the series standing tied at 1-1, the Maple Leafs have consistently outshot the Bruins in both of the initial two games. In Game 1, Toronto outshot Boston 36-24, and in Game 2, they maintained the trend with a 34-29 shot advantage.
As the series shifts to Toronto for Game 3 after the first two matchups in Boston, the Maple Leafs hold home-ice advantage. In the regular season, Toronto ranked 7th in Shots For per Game (SF/GP), averaging 32.6, while the Bruins ranked 22nd in Shots Against per Game (SA/GP), averaging 30.5. Additionally, at home, the Maple Leafs have been even more prolific, averaging 33.07 SF/GP, while the Bruins have struggled defensively on the road, averaging 31.68 SA/GP.
Auston Matthews has consistently logged over 4.5 shots on goal in both of the series’ initial games. With Nylander absent from the lineup and Marner yet to make a significant impact, the Maple Leafs’ aspirations of advancing beyond the first round hinge heavily on Matthews’ performance. Moreover, Matthews’ recent form has been stellar, bolstered by his impressive track record against Boston, where he has recorded over 4.5 shots in seven of their last eight matchups.
Max Domi has earned a spot on Toronto’s top line alongside Auston Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi. He has consistently registered over 1.5 shots on goal in both of the series’ opening games. Domi has also showcased strong performance at home recently, tallying over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. Additionally, his history against Boston is noteworthy, having recorded over 1.5 shots in each of his last five matchups against them.
Player Props:
Jason Robertson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Jason Robertson occupies a key role on Dallas’ top line alongside Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, forming a formidable trio. Furthermore, he plays a significant part in Dallas’ first Powerplay unit, which is expected to capitalize on numerous opportunities in tonight’s game. In the opening match, the Stars had a couple of Power Play opportunities, setting the stage for Robertson and his teammates to make an impact.
Robertson has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four out of his last five games. In the opening game, he managed three shots on goal out of seven shot attempts and also led Dallas forwards in ice time. Additionally, Robertson boasts an impressive track record against Vegas, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in five of their last seven encounters.
In Game 1, the Stars outshot the Golden Knights 29 to 15. Following their loss in the first game, the Stars will be determined to bounce back in Game 2. Expect them to once again come out with a strong offensive presence, aiming to turn the tide in their favor.
Connor McDavid over 1.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
Connor McDavid delivered an exceptional performance in the series opener, achieving a remarkable feat by becoming just the 13th player in NHL history to register five assists in a playoff game, marking the first occurrence since 1998.
McDavid’s recent performance highlights his remarkable consistency, having surpassed 1.5 points in seven of his last ten games overall and an impressive nine out of ten games when playing at home. Additionally, his track record against the Los Angeles Kings is equally impressive, with over 1.5 points in nine of their last ten encounters.
With the Oilers poised for a deep postseason run, McDavid’s continued excellence will be crucial. Despite the Kings’ potential shift back to a neutral zone trap strategy in Game 2, McDavid’s skillset presents a challenge for such defensive tactics. His ability to navigate through opposition players and create scoring opportunities remains unmatched, even against a 1-3-1 setup, often leaving him in advantageous one-on-one situations against defenders.
Given the Oilers’ superiority over the Kings, they will be keen to assert their dominance and prevent any chance of a comeback in the series. Expect McDavid to once again showcase his exceptional talent and play a pivotal role in maintaining Edmonton’s momentum.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Happy Wednesday everyone. We’re almost through the first month of MLB Baseball and we’ve righted the ship after a rough first two weeks. 29-32-1 Overall -4.38 Units on the season, but 18-11-1 the last two weeks + 9.31 Units. I expect the recent trend to continue tonight as I have four plays on the card including this free selection. You can find all my plays here @TheOddsbreakers.com
My Analysis today turns to Angel Stadium in Anaheim where the Angels will host the Baltimore Orioles at 4:07 ET. The current line sits at Baltimore -131/ Los Angeles +111 with an Over/Under of 9.5 juiced to the over at -115. Game time temperature will be 66 degrees under clear skies with the wind blowing out to center at around 10mph.
Tyler Anderson will take the hill for the Angels and he is having a great start to the season boasting a 1.42 ERA. That is deceiving however as he has been very lucky so far and his underlying metrics tell a different story. His K/9 sits at 4.97 and his walk rate per nine innings is at 3.2. Add in a 96% LOB percentage and an opponent BABIP of .167 and you’ve got the Regression Fairies waiting to sprinkle some magic blowup dust on his ERA. The xFIP is 5.17 so this seems like as good of a spot as any for someone to come in and pound him. That someone is the Orioles lineup which is one of the best in baseball coming in at second in MLB with an OPS of .775 and they match that number versus left handed pitching. Their bats are stronger from the left hand side, but the overall splits still look good across the board for the Orioles so I anticipate them being able to get to Anderson.
Dean Kremer is on the hill for the Orioles. He has not pitched awful with the exception of one bad outing against the Brewers really blowing up his ratios. He has been prone to the longball giving up 2.05 HR/9 here early in the season. The overall ERA sits at 4.91 with an xFIP at 4.34. The Angels offense has an OPS of .687, and .679 versus right handed pitching. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward are hitting well to begin the season combining for 15 Home Runs, but the rest of the team has only combined for 9 total homers.
With the wind blowing out it is possible both pitchers give up some long balls. Anderson has a fly ball rate at over 50% currently and with the pop in this Orioles lineup and the breeze blowing out it could be an early shower. Kremer isn’t much better showing with a 45.8% fly ball rate. If the game gets tight later the bullpen has been better for the Orioles who sport a half run better bullpen ERA, more strikeouts and less walks from the pen. For me this comes down to the team with the better offense, and I think the Orioles pull away and win this game.
Take Baltimore -131 for 1 Unit, or if you want some plus money on it split a half unit each on the ML and RL
We have a great show for you today! Thor Nystrom @ThorKU joins us to talk some NFL draft from a sports wagering perspective! First, Kiev and Thor discuss their quarterback rankings and why they disagree on someone that is getting a lot of hype for an early first round play. Next, Thor and Kiev discuss some of the position groups and how they will fall into the first round. Then, we get into what certain teams will do with their pick at their position. Will there be some surprise picks or trades? After that, Kiev and Thor talk about some of his FREE PLAYS for the 2024 NFL Draft! Finally, Kiev gives out a long shot that Thor could also see happening at pick 17! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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As we inch NFL draft this Thursday April 25th 2024, and once again, there is a lot of speculation on just where these quarterbacks will land. Last year, Will Levis going into the 2nd round was the biggest mock miss of the last few years. He was basically used as a smoke screen while the Tennessee Titans didn’t take the bluff and ended up with their quarterback in the second round. So far, the jury is looking like Levis should have even went later in the draft with his poor performance in 2023. If you know me, then you know that I usually prefer trading down, but I understand that isn’t always possible, so I will try and limit that option. My mock drafts are a little bit different than the marketplace as I like to say what teams “should” do from using my research, and then attempt to predict what teams “will” do based on their tendencies and the marketplace. For example, last year I stated that the Panthers “should” pick CJ Stroud, yet I had their mock picking Bryce Young. A couple things of note, this might be the worst draft for both running backs and tight ends in some time. Here is how my predictions all lay out. For our position totals in the first round, we have 6 quarterbacks, 0 running backs, 1 tight end, 6 wide receivers, 7 offensive lineman, 6 defensive line/edge, 0 Inside Linebacker, 5 Cornerbacks, and 1 Safety. We have 20 offensive players and 12 on defense. Let the games begin!
Best Bets: Total defensive players selected over 10.5 -175 – JJ McCarthy Over 5.5 +120 – 1 star, (long shot Brock Bowers to Jacksonville +10000 – .2 stars)
ROUND 1
1. Chicago Bears
Who they should pick: Caleb Williams, but I do think that there is a sliver of chance that they could get offered a haul from the Commanders to trade down to the two spot and Ryan Poles could possibly bite due to Caleb’s off the field antics. Should they do this? Well, it depends on how much they get. Everyone has a price, but Caleb is my number 1 guy.
Mock Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC. Caleb Williams has proven the most and deserves to be the top pick of the draft.
2. Washington Commanders
Who they should pick: Jayden Daniels. I know that he is being compared to Justin Fields, but he looks like a more of an accurate Lamar Jackson to me. The kid can throw the seam routs and he has some extreme NFL speed. My only issue is that his frame is a bit small for the NFL.
Mock Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. Also a no brainer. I know there are issues with Jayden Daniel’s agent putting it out on twitter that he is perplexed by Washington wanting to meet with all quarterbacks at once rather than spending quality one on one time with each. I do think that these issues get fixed. The consensus should be correct. Williams 1 and Daniels 2 is how it goes.
3. New England Patriots
Who they should pick: Trade down to take Michael Penix. I do not like how Drake Maye finished his college career. Another big red flag is the fact that he was in the ACC while only amassing 1 win vs ranked teams over the past two years.
Mock pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. I don’t see the Patriots trading back, even if they have needs at several other positions. Taking Maye secures their future at the NFL’s most important position.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Who they should pick: The Cardinals are looking for the next Larry Fitzgerald, and nobody better than Marvin Harrison JR. This kid has the best demeanor, size, speed, athletic ability, and competitive spirit making him the best player in this drat class.
Mock pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. The Cardinals could trade down, but I think that teams will not want to give up a ton for the 4th quarterback picked in this draft class. Arizona likes Marvin so much that they will hold steady.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Who they should pick: Jim Harbaugh is a genius coach who knows how to build a football team. No way that he crumbles under any media pressure to draft a wide receiver at this position. I also hear rumors that the Vikings will give up their left nut to trade up for JJ McCarthy. This would be a massive mistake being that they do not pick again until the fourth round.
Mock pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. I think that Jim will draft the best OT in this draft class and get his Michigan guys later being that they are not ranked all that high.
6. New York Giants
Who they should pick: The Giants are a mess. They screwed up by paying a backup type quarterback in Danny Dimes a boat load of money to be a starter. Since he is locked up until 2026, I think that the Giants should trade down and draft a corner.
Mock pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. When in Rome, you act like the Romans. Well, this team lost their RB Saquon Barkley and they will want a play maker. I think Slayton is done, so they will go with Rome from Washington. The reason they won’t go with Malik Nabers is that they already have that speedy profile WR in Jalin Hyatt. Odunze is taller and can fight for the ball.
7. Tennessee Titans
Who they should pick: If Titans GM Ron Carthon was smart, he would either A, trade down and draft offensive line, or B, trade Will Levis and draft a good quarterback like Penix or Nix. I have to assume that he makes the wrong decision like most executives and stays with Will Levis.
Mock pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama. The Titans will most likely go with an offensive lineman because they think that they can protect Levis. JC Latham is the next man in most of the rankings. I don’t mind the pick at all, but at the same time, Will Levis isn’t the answer at quarterback.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Who they should pick: The Falcons did a ton to bolster their team including the QB position in Kirk Cousins. The next most logical move is to get to the quarterback? NO. Get an edge rusher. Atlanta is switching back to a 3-4 defense so I think that Dallas Turner or Jared Verse is the most logical fit.
Mock pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama. Atlanta is trying to fool everyone by saying they might take a quarterback. Looking at the GMs these days, I wouldn’t be that shocked if it works. Obviously they really want their top guy on D to fall past the Chargers and the Giants. Dallas Turner would be a great pick for the Falcons. Turner amassed 53 tackles, 11 sacks, 15.5 tackles for a loss with two forced fumbles in 2023. He is a gifted pass rusher off the edge as illustrated with his amazing 40 time of 4.46. Turner can also drop back in coverage.
9. Chicago Bears
Who they should pick: The Bears were only 25th in team sacks per game. They did add Montez Sweat who I would call just an average pass rusher yet a great run stopper. The Bears should trade down, but I would also like to go with edge rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA who is a 6’4 pass rushing beast with 13 sacks last year at UCLA.
Mock pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU This team picked up Keenan Allen on a one year deal, but they did lose Darnell Mooney to free agency. I could see them going WR here to pair back up with Caleb, but I do not love it.
10. New York Jets
Who they should pick: Even without Arron Rogers dramatic injury, this team’s offensive line completely sucked. They did add a few guys in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but it isn’t enough for the prima donna that they had signed last year. Got to go with Troy Fautanu from Washington.
Mock pick: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington. Like a glove! Some say Brock Bowers, but I am saying that this team can’t afford another Rogers injury and the GM can’t afford to be the blame for it. Fautanu is versatile and can play the Tackle or the Guard position. He has the size and speed to pull on run plays as well as the feet and strength to pass block on the edge.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Who they should pick: This is getting repetitive, but Michael Penix is the perfect fit for this system. Penix is a great pocket quarterback who can connect with guys like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Mock pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. Forest Gump says, stupid is what stupid does. This team will pick JJ McCarthy and throw him into the wolves as soon as Sam Darnold throws an interception.
12. Denver Broncos
Who they should pick: I don’t know if this team could stomach another year without a quarterback. Yes, their defense was terrible for the first seven or eight games, but now without Wilson, they need some hope. Grab Bo Nix. He feels more like the Sean Payton fit of being a pocket quarterback with some scrambling ability.
Mock pick: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: I think that Sean Payton doesn’t risk his guy going to the Raiders or the Saints. Bo threw for an amazing 4,508 yards over 14 games with 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He also ran for six TDs and 234 yards. this man could be the next Drew Breese with legs.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Who they should pick: The Raiders can’t seriously think that they have a quarterback in Gardner Minshew right? Michael Penix is just sitting there.
Mock Pick: Michael Penix, QB, Washington. The Raiders get it right with Michael Penix. This quarterback immediately makes guys like Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer much more relevant. Michael had mad passing numbers at number one in total yards at 4903 with 36 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
14. New Orleans Saints
Who they should pick: The defense needs some love being that they ranked fourth worst in sacks per game. This is against a weak NFC South. Draft Jared Verse from Florida State. He is a beast and can be very explosive in the next level.
Mock pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State. It must absolutely suck to be stuck with Derek Carr, but I guess you might as well try to keep him upright this year. The tea leaves say they go offensive line and Fashanu is the next man up. This guy can jump out of a building with his 32 inch vertical.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Who they should pick: The Texans have gotten some good receivers, so I assume they Colts have to go defense at some point. Why not the best corner in the draft in Quinyon Mitchell?
Mock pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo. Quinyon was a man amongst boys at Toledo. He also had a spectacular combine running a 4.33 forty. In 2022 as a junior Mitchell played in 13 games. He had 31 tackles, 2 assists, and added 14 stops. In the secondary Mitchell forced 16 pass breakups, 5 interceptions, and gave up an elite QB rating when targeted of just 32.4. His senior year was just as impressive. Quinyon has the instincts to be a Sauce Gardner type impact player.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Who they should pick: Seattle’s rush defense was trash last year. Having to face the run heavy 49ers, Rams and Cardinals, this team needs to fix their three technique. Draft Byron Murphy from Texas. I saw him run down a running back at full speed last year in the playoffs. Byron is the best in the bunch.
Mock pick: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas. Seattle had the second worst rush defense in the NFL. Murphy had the second highest vertical in the combine for defensive Tackles. In 2023, he recorded 29 tackles and five sacks for the Longhorns.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Who they should pick: WR Calvin Ridley is gone, but this team signed Gabriel Davis and Devon Duvernay in free agency. Jacksonville was trash against the pass last year yet they at least signed Arik Armstead from the 49ers to bolster that edge. This team should draft my next best corner in Nate Wiggins from Clemson.
Mock pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. Maybe it’s just that Brock Bowers is so good that he makes the rest of them look deficient, but I do not have a 1st or 2nd round grade on any other tight end in this draft. The Jaguars won’t be able to help themselves seeing that the best tight end over the past three years is still available. I am ok with it, yet I still would rather get the corner.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Who they should pick:Cincinnati needs a lot, but they lost RT Jonah Williams to free agency. I am ok with cornerback or offensive tackle right here.
Mock pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State. I think that the Bengals get it right here. Fuaga is a low risk pick that can run block with the best of them. Anything protecting Joe Burrow isn’t a bad play in my opinion.
Who they should pick: Trade down, but if not, the Rams need to replace Aaron Donald, and this team FINALLY has a first round pick. I am ok with any defensive line or secondary here.
Mock pick:Kris Jenkins, DE, Michigan. Many say they will go 3-4 edge like a Jared Verse, but I think that they get their Aaron Donald. The Rams are getting a proven winner here. Kris Jenkins fits the Aaron Donald profile with this size and strength. The run game will be huge in this division, so the Rams will try and once again clog up those trenches.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Who they should pick:Ok, I’ll stop saying trade down, but this team needs more offensive line help. Take Graham Barton or Amarius Mims from Georgia.
Mock pick: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas. I could see the Steelers making a bad choice here after trading Deonte Johnson. Worthy is a speedster with that 4.21 forty record at the combine, but the guy is 165lbs soak and wet. Hope he doesn’t take a big hit.
21. Miami Dolphins
Who they should pick: The Fins lost a bunch of talent in free agency. They could go best player here. I suppose defensive end needs some depth and Jared Verse is a beast.
Mock pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State. I think that Verse will be a bit of a project. He is a little raw when it comes to coverage, but in this division he has to help stop guys like Josh Allen and Aaron Rogers.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Who they should pick: The Eagles traded Hassan Reddick and signed Bryce Huff. There are a few directions that this team could go, but I think that they need to work on that defense that completely crapped the bed in the last half of the season. Go with a corner.
Mock pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. Wiggens is the next best corner in this draft, and this would be a perfect fit if the Eagles do not screw this up.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Who they should pick: They will probably try to trade down to get more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round, but for the time being, Minnesota needs secondary since they got Greenard and Van Ginkle in free agency.
Mock Pick pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama. Terrion is the next ranked cornerback in this draft. He had some nice numbers last year with 61 tackles, five interceptions and 11 passes broken up. The big knock against him is that his forty didn’t go well in the combine at 4.5 seconds, so I think that he hurt his chances as the first cornerback off of the board.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Who they should pick: So weird to see the Cowboys with zero running backs. There is no Bijan Robinson in this draft, so I think Dallas goes offensive line here to make up for losing Tyron Smith.
Mock pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. If someone restrains Jerry Jones from making dumb decisions, this pick should work out wonderful. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses in the playoffs.
25. Green Bay Packers
Who they should pick: The Packers need secondary, linebacker and offensive line help. I say go with OT Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma. The man is huge and will be able to stop the majority of the edge rushers in the next level.
Mock pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama. I think that the Packers go corner here. They got burned in the slot against teams like Detroit and San Francisco. Kool-Aid not only can play corner, he is also a dangerous punt returner.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who they should pick: I am not going to overcomplicate this. Tampa lost Shaq Barrett and will need to rush the quarterback.
Mock pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State. The next guy up is Chop Robinson who was the best edge rusher on a great Penn State defense before he got hurt. Chop is fast with 4.48 forty speed. Perfect fit for the 3-4 defense.
27. Arizona Cardinals
Who they should pick: Arizona still wants a stud edge rusher and they see Darius Robinson sitting there. Robinson fits the Gannon 4-3 scheme perfectly with his 290 LB frame and his 6’5 height.
Mock pick: Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri. This is a no-brainer to me. Darius looks the part with his huge size and amazing athletic ability. His Senior season amassed 36 total pressures including 22 QB hurries, 6 QB hits, and an impressive 8 sacks.
28. Buffalo Bills
Who they should pick: This team screwed me over last year when I said they needed the best linebacker in the draft. Instead they went tight end. Buffalo greatly paid for it later in the season when the injury bug set it. This team should trade down, but I could see them going WR. Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis are both gone and it is what it is.
Mock pick: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU. Is it possible that LSU’s receivers are what made Jayden Daniels look so darn good? Thomas edges out Adonai Mitchell in most rankings. At 6’3, 209 lbs with a 4.33 forty, he is very fast, tall at versatile.
29. Detroit Lions
Who they should pick: The Lions once again were straight trash against the pass. They signed another edge rusher in Marcus Davenport, so I think that they go secondary.
Mock: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa. A perfect Dan Campbell kind of guy. Versatility is key here as DeJean could easily convert into safety as well as play slot corner. This kid may not look the part, but he certainly can play the part on defense.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Who they should pick: The Ravens continue to feel the effects of not winning a super bowl when the quarterback was on a rookie contract. This team lost a bunch to free agency including S Geno Stone and CB Ronald Darby. This team needs pretty much everything.
Mock pick: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia. I think that Baltimore throws us a curve ball here and drafts a safety earlier than the market predicts. If too small at free safety, Bullard can also play cornerback where he also has some experience. Rarely a bad move to draft a top guy that played for Georgia.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Who they should pick: If not trading down, the 49ers have a blessing of riches, yet if they do need to fill some gaps, it is in offensive and the defensive line losing Javon Kinlaw, Chase Young, Arik Armstead and Sebastian Joseph.
Mock pick: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona. San Francisco needs depth in their offensive line. The tea leaves are saying Jordan Morgan. This massive kid was a huge reason for the Wildcats offensive success in 2023. I like the pick.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Who they should pick: The Chiefs need to replace L’Jarius Sneed who was their best pass defender on defense. Now that Rashee Rice is in trouble, I could see them getting a top WR.
Mock pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. Ranked as the 4th best wide receiver in many draft boards, this kid as size at 6’2, and speed at a 4.34 forty that translates well into the NFL.
Tonight in the NHL, we’re in for a thrilling lineup of four playoff games. Let’s delve into the matchups that promise excitement and highlight some intriguing player props worth your attention.
Matchups:
Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Washington Capitals 0 – New York Rangers 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Washington Capitals
+215
+235
+1.5 (-115)
o5.5 (-105)
New York Rangers
-265
-290
-1.5 (-105)
u5.5 (-115)
WSH: Charlie Lindgren [EXPECTED]
NYR: Igor Shesterkin [CONFIRMED]
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Florida Panthers
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Series: Tampa Bay Lightning 0 – Florida Panthers 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
+150
+150
+1.5 (-175)
o5.5 (-125)
Florida Panthers
-180
-180
-1.5 (+145)
u5.5 (+105)
TBL: Andrei Vasilevskiy [EXPECTED]
FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky [CONFIRMED]
Colorado Avalanche @ Winnipeg Jets
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Series: Colorado Avalanche 0 – Winnipeg Jets 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-105
-120
-1.5 (+205)
o6.5 (+105)
Winnipeg Jets
-115
+100
+1.5 (-250)
u6.5 (-125)
COL: Alexandar Georgiev [CONFIRMED]
WPG: Connor Hellebuyck [CONFIRMED]
Nashville Predators @ Vancouver Canucks
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Series: Nashville Predators 0 – Vancouver Canucks 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Nashville Predators
+130
+110
+1.5 (-225)
o6.0 (+105)
Vancouver Canucks
-155
-130
-1.5 (+185)
u6.0 (-125)
NSH: Juuse Saros [EXPECTED]
VAN: Casey DeSmith [CONFIRMED]
Sides/Totals:
Colorado Avalanche/ Winnipeg Jets Under 6.5 (-120) – BetMGM
Player Props:
Jacob Truba over 2.5 Blocked Shots (+145) – BetMGM
Jacob Truba has recorded over 2.5 blocked shots in nine of his last ten postseason games. In Game 1, Washington only had 21 shots on goal so I’m expecting them to come out firing tonight as they try to even the series.
Sam Reinhart over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-143) – Caesars
Sam Reinhart is currently stationed on Florida’s top line alongside Vladimir Tarasenko and Aleksander Barkov. Additionally, he holds a position on Florida’s first Powerplay unit, which is poised for several opportunities tonight. In Game 1, the Panthers had three of Power Play chances.
Reinhart has hit his shots on goal mark in nine of his last ten games. In Game 1, Reinhart had five shots on goal in six shot attempts.
In Game 1, the Panthers had 28 shots on goal compared to the Lightning who had just 19. The Panthers have averaged the 2nd most shots on goal during the regular season with 33.64 and have been even better at home with an average of 34.88.
Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – DraftKings
Matthew Tkachuk is currently stationed on Florida’s second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett. Additionally, he holds a position on Florida’s first Powerplay unit, which is poised for several opportunities tonight. In Game 1, the Panthers had three of Power Play chances.
Tkachuk has hit his shots on goal mark in each of his last three games. In Game 1, Tkachuk had four shots on goal in eight shot attempts. He also has some great history against their instate rival recording over 3.5 shots on goal in seven of his last ten matchups against Tampa Bay.
In Game 1, the Panthers had 28 shots on goal compared to the Lightning who had just 19. The Panthers have averaged the 2nd most shots on goal during the regular season with 33.64 and have been even better at home with an average of 34.88.
Ryan O’Reilly over 0.5 Points (-140) – DraftKings
Ryan O’Reilly is currently stationed on Nashville’s top line alongside Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist. His performance leading up to the postseason was impressive, with at least one point recorded in six of the last seven games of the regular season.
In Game 1, O’Reilly led the Predators in ice time and scored once extending his point streak to six games. As a seasoned veteran and key figure in the team’s leadership, I anticipate an inspired performance from O’Reilly, particularly following the disappointing loss in Game 1.
Also, Casey DeSmith is expected to get the start tonight for Vancouver who has been the worse of the two goalies. On the season, DeSmith had a -0.4 GSAx.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
