Home Blog Page 426

NHL Preview & Picks – November 30, 2021

There were originally 9 games scheduled in the NHL tonight but, due to the Islanders having some COVID-19 issues, we’re down to 8 games. Regardless, it’s still a great slate of games with some top tier matchups. The best games of the night are probably the following:

  • Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ St. Louis Blues
  • Carolina Hurricanes @ Dallas Stars

I have two plays for tonight, so check ’em out below!

 

San Jose Sharks @ New Jersey Devils

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • San Jose Sharks: 11-9-1, 5th Pacific (6-5-0 Away)
  • New Jersey Devils: 9-6-4, 6th Metropolitan (6-3-2 Home)
Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
San Jose Sharks +110 +125 +1.5 (-190) o5.5 (-120)
New Jersey Devils -130 -145 -1.5 (+170) u5.5 (+100)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Jose’s last 7 games.
  • San Jose are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against New Jersey.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey’s last 7 games.
  • New Jersey are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.

 

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have had an up and down start to the season but, look to turn things around winning three of their last four. San Jose also recently placed Evander Kane on waivers and will send him to the AHL if he goes unclaimed. Kane has had some issues recently with gambling and domestic assault and it looks like the Sharks are sick of dealing with his off-ice issues.

San Jose will play their second away game of their five game road trip tonight. They’re coming off a 2-0 win on Sunday vs the Blackhawks. This will also be the final game between these two of the season as New Jersey claimed the first in a 3-2 shootout win.

Looking at this Sharks team from an offensive prospective, they haven’t been great. They have the 8th worst Expected Goals % with a 47.8%. The Sharks also rank near the bottom on the league in Goals For Above Expected, with a -3.61 and average only 2.27 Goals For Per 60. Statistically they’re led by Timo Meier who has 20 points in 16 games and tallied the lone two goals in their win on Sunday.

Defensively, they’ve been better with a 2.27 Goals Against Per 60 ranking middle of the road. The Sharks have a -2.07 Goals Against Above Expected which is again, is average. This may be misleading as the star of the show for San Jose has been James Reimer who has kept this team afloat at certain points. Reimer has been confirmed the starter for tonight and has a +6.9 Goals Saved Above Expected in his 13 games played.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils have made their money at home this season capturing six of their nine wins at the Prudential Center. According to New Jersey’s head coach, Lindy Ruff, Jack Hughes is questionable to return tonight from his shoulder injury (Note: Confirmed In). Hughes hasn’t played since mid October and would be a huge addition back to their lineup. Also, Hughes just signed an extension with the Devils for $63 million over 8 years.

Offensively, the Devils have one of the best Goals For Per 60 average with a 2.5. However, they are failing to capitalize on chances as seen in their Goals For Above Expected (-2.74). One area where they struggle is on the Power Play, ranking 30th in the league. Jesper Bratt and Andreas Johnsson lead the team in points with 17 a piece. Bratt is on a four game point streak and Johnsson has six points in his last two games.

New Jersey defensively has been much better with a Goals Against Above Expected that ranks near the top of the league (-8.25). They’re also on averaging 2.18 Goals Against per 60. Like their Power Play, their Penalty Kill has also struggled ranking 21st (80%). Mackenzie Blackwood has also had a good start to the season with a +3.5 Goals Saved Above Expected. He’s expected to get the start tonight but has had a few struggles as of late giving up three or more goals in three of his last five starts.

 

PICK: NEW JERSEY DEVILS TO WIN IN REGULATION -1/2 (+100)

The Devils have been playing great hockey at home this year and based off Jack Hughes most recent tweet, it looks like he’ll be in the lineup. The moneyline shifted drastically, almost 15 cents which I don’t particularly like so I’ll take them to win in regulation tonight.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ St. Louis Blues

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 12-5-3, 3rd Atlantic (5-2-1 Away)
  • St. Louis Blues: 11-7-3, 2nd Central (6-3-1 Home)
Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning +110 +115 +1.5 (-220) o5.5 (-115)
St. Louis Blues -130 -135 -1.5 (+190) u5.5 (-105)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.
  • Tampa Bay are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
  • St. Louis are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis’ last 13 games at home.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning are coming off a 4-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild on Sunday where they were in a tough spot. Tampa did not play well losing the expected goal battle 1.42 to 4.98. Prior to that tough loss, Tampa rattled off three wins in a row that included a 5-4 shoutout win over Minnesota.

Offensively Tampa has looked to have found their groove again averaging 3.57 goals per game in their last 7. They have a 52.57 xGoals % with a -1.08 Goals For Above Expected. Steven Stamkos leads the team in points with 24 through his first 20 games played. He’s also on a four game point streak so he should be a guy you look to target in terms of player props. The Bolts will be without Mathieu Joseph who has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game.

On the opposite side of the puck, Tampa has been good with a -4.06 Goals Against Above Expected. They also rank near the top of the league in Goals Against Per 60 giving up just 2.02. Unlike their Power Play that has struggled due to the injury of Nikita Kucherov, their Penalty Kills ranks 5th in the NHL. While Andrei Vasilevskiy did struggle a bit at the start of the season, he has found his form with a +8.2 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year. However, Brian Elliot has been confirmed the starter which is why the line shifted a bit. Elliot hasn’t been great so far with a -2.7 GSAx through three games.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues are coming off a solid win at home vs the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday night. They were able to snap a two game road skid where they lost to Detroit and Chicago. St. Louis got off to an incredible start to the season but have seemed to regressed a bit as expected.

Looking at the Blues from an offensive prospective they have been good on the year with a +2.59 Goals For Above Expected. They also rank near the top of the league in Goals For Per 60 with 2.57. One key offensively for them has been the ability to take advantage on special teams with a Power Play ranking 2nd. The Blues may also be without one of their top scorers as David Perron is questionable for tonight.

Defensively, the Blues have also been good with a 2.11 Goals Against per 60 average. They have a -7.24 Goals Against Above expected which ranks 9th. One area that St. Louis needs to clean up is in terms of High Danger Shots Against. They have given up 38 on the year which is near the bottom of the league. Jordan Binnington has been confirmed the starter tonight. He’s been their second best goalie this year in terms of GSAx but still has a +1.0.

 

PICK: OVER 5.5 (-115)

In my power rankings this games a pick em based off each teams recent form. However, with Elliot being confirmed as the starter I don’t really like the Lightning here. A play I was looking at earlier that is now in play is the over. Tampa has been clicking on offense recently and should be able to generate some scoring chances on this St. Louis defense.

 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Free CBB Premium Play for Tuesday, November 30th

Get ready for Tuesday tip-off!!  After cashing on lone play yesterday, we are back with a free premium play for you for today!  We are off to a 21-11 (66%) start in CBB to begin the season!   And get on board with The OddsBreakers and get Nick’s BRAND NEW Sides subscription HERE

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge continues tonight when the Northwestern Wildcats visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. The Wildcats are off to 5-1 start after taking it to the Georgia Bulldogs 78-62 last Tuesday in the Legends Classic in Newark while the Demon Deacons will hope to bounce back from its first loss of the season after taking a 75-61 defeat to the LSU Tigers in the Emerald Coach Classic to fall to 6-1 overall. Northwestern enters averaging 81.7 points per game on 48% from the floor while their defense is also playing well and is only giving up 61.3 points per game on 38.7% shooting. Wake Forest has similar numbers as they score 82.7 points per game on 49.6% shooting and are holding opposing offenses to 67 points per game on 41.6% from the field. According to KenPom, Northwestern enters with the 39th best adjusted offensive efficiency and 55th on defense while he Demon Deacons come in owning the 99th best adjusted offensive efficiency and their defense ranks 81st. A major key to the game will be turnovers. Northwestern really takes care of the ball as they rank 7th in the nation in turnover percentage while the Wake Forest offense ranks 202nd in turning over the basketball. Northwestern also taps into their bench more often as spreading out the playing time and are a better free throw shooting team which will come in handy at the end of this one. Take Northwestern +1.5

Get Nick’s BRAND NEW Sides subscription HERE

November 30th CBB Free Play

I started the week off with a 2-1 Monday and will look to add 2 more winners tonight. In addition to this CBB free play, I have added a CBB premium play for my members. Premium plays are hitting at a 64% clip(77-43-1) and have netted my members +47.85u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CBB(1u): Minnesota -2.5(-110) @ Pittsburgh–6 PM CT

Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the Power 5 this season and should be looked against in almost any competitive matchup. KenPom has Pitt ranked as the 199th best team in CBB, sandwiched right in between Lipscomb and Stony Brook. Neither their offensive or defense ranks better than 181st in efficiency, and to top it all off, they move at one of the slowest paces in the country. I’m not all that high on Minnesota given they lost their leading scorer Marcus Carr to the transfer portal, but the Gophers could still be a fringe tournament team this season. You can counter their 5-0 start by saying their hardest matchup to date has been Western Kentucky or Princeton, but given that Pittsburgh is 2-4 with losses to UMBC and the Citadel, let’s not act like this is a major step up in competition for Minnesota. I don’t understand the respect for Pittsburgh here, so I’ll lay the short number with the Gophers.

November 30th CBB Premium Play

Premium Plays: 77-43-1, +47.85u

*CBB(1u): Clemson ML(-115) @ Rutgers–8 PM CT

Not only is Clemson clearly the superior team in this matchup, but this is a revenge spot dating back to last year’s NCAA Tournament. 10-seeded Rutgers knocked off a cold 7-seed Clemson in the first round of the Tournament, but since then, these programs have moved in opposite directions. Rutgers is 3-3 on the season with losses to DePaul, Lafayette, and UMASS; they currently rank 132nd in offensive efficiency. Clemson, on the other hand, is 5-1 with an array of blowout wins as well as a competitive loss to West Virginia. The Tigers showcase a Top 50 defense in the nation that should have their way with Rutgers tonight, but unlike last year’s team, the Clemson offense is also hovering around the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. Clemson is a better basketball team than Rutgers, and given the massive motivational angle, I feel good designating this as a premium play.

Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday NHL Totals Play and Preview

Tuesday card has an NBA Platinum Supreme move in the NBA in the Golden St at Phoenix game as well as our NCAAB Non Conference Game Of The Month. NHL Play below
 
The NHL Comp Play is on the Over 5.5 goals in the Columbus at Nashville game at 8:10 eastern. Columbus is 6th in the league in scoring and have gone over in 110 of the last 12, 7 of 8 with 2 days rest, 6 of 8 as a dog and 4 of 5 vs a team that allowed 5 or more goals. The Blue Jackets are the 2nd worst in the league in taking penalties and that could spell trouble here against a Nashville team that convert 6th best in the league on the Power Play. The Predators have gone over in the last 3 and 7 of 8 vs a team that allowed 5 or more goals. They are no great shakes ranked 20th in the league in defense. In the Series 11 of 16 have flown over and that what we will go with here tonight. On Tuesday we end the Month Big in Baskets with a Top Level NBA Platinum Supreme move in the Golden St at Phoenix game and in College Hoops the Non Conference Game of the Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on as we continue to cash in Hoops. For the NHL Play. Go Over 5.5 goals in the Columbus at Nashville game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Fantasy Football Week 13

Bye Weeks:  Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans

Key Injuries:

  • RB Christian McCaffrey Ankle and out for the season.
  • WR Deebo Samuel – Groin injury and is day to day.
  • RB Dalvin Cook – Shoulder injury and is week to week.
  • RB D’Andre Swift – Shoulder sprain and will miss next week.
  • WR AJ Brown – now on IR.
  • QB Jalen Hurts – Ankle injury.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Alexander Mattison for the Cook injury.
  • RB Kene Ngangwu for Cook injury.
  • RB Chubba Hubbard for McCaffrey Injury.
  • RB Ameer Abdula for the McCaffrey Injury.
  • RB Jamal Williams for the Swift injury.
  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo – Easy matchups coming.
  • WR Kendrick Bourne had 6 targets and 2 TDs.  It’s time to become bourne again.
  • TE Jack Doyal did well for Indianapolis.
  • RB Randall Cobb making noise for Green Bay.

Non-starters trending up for week 13:

  • RB Nyheim Hines vs a bad Houston rush defense.
  • RB Jamal Williams vs a bad Vikings rush defense.
  • RB Alexander Mattison vs a bad Lions defense.
  • RB Devonte Freeman vs the Steelers bad rush defense.
  • WR Brandon Ayuike vs a bad Seahawks defense.
  • WR Jalen Reagar vs a bad Jets D.
  • WR AJ Green could torch the Bears especially if Hopkins is out.
  • WR Rhondale Moore could also torch the Bears.
  • RB Ronald Jones vs the Falcons D.
  • RB Sonny Michelle vs the Jaguars D.

Busts:

  • QB Matt Ryan vs Tampa’s D isn’t a good matchup for him.
  • QB Mac Jones vs Buffalo’s D worries me.
  • QB Josh Allen vs the Patriots D also worries me.
  • RB Damien Harris vs Buffalo’s rush D.
  • RB Ezekiel Elliot has a nagging injury.
  • RB David Montgomery vs Arizona’s defense is a bad one.
  • WR Tee Higgins vs a good Chargers pass D.

Nasty Sleeper:  Jamal Williams vs the Minnesota Vikings.   

How to Bet the Warriors vs. Suns – November 30, 2021

Warriors vs. Suns, pictured squaring off in the 2020-2021 season.

 

A huge early season matchup goes down tonight at 10:00pm when the red-hot Golden State Warriors travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns, who have now won a staggering 16 games in a row! Here’s how I would bet this game. Good luck, people!

For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 38-21-1
NBA: 74-57 (56%), +25.67 units

This is a marquee game between two titans in the Western Conference. These are also my two highest power rated teams in the NBA, with Golden State slightly ahead of Phoenix by 1.5 points. Because of that, this is an auto-bet for me on Golden State. The Warriors have done nothing but impress since the start of the season. Steph Curry has proven, night in and night out, that not only is he playing the best basketball of his career, but he’s clearly one of the best on-court leaders in the association. Because of Curry and Steve Kerr’s tutelage, Golden State’s young studs have developed fast this year, with contributions from Looney, Wiggins, Poole, Payton II and others standing out as the Warriors look like a very complete and very deep team. The most obvious way to bet this game is to take the Warriors at + money. This is a rare opportunity that you won’t get many times this year, especially not if Golden State continues to play this well on both sides of the hardwood. Golden State plays with a chemistry (cultivated by Curry) that’s hard to measure.

On the other side, the Suns are led by Chris Paul and after a slow start to their season, the Suns have picked up right where they left off last year. Phoenix has now won 16 straight games, catapulting themselves into 2nd place in the West, right under tonight’s opponent. Let’s compare some of the important stats between these two elite teams. In case you haven’t heard, the Suns are nothing to underestimate, either:

  • No team has been more complete than Golden State. The Warriors are #2 in ppg and #1 in points allowed. Phoenix is #4 and #8 in those same categories.
  • Both teams excel in the first QTR on offense. Golden State is ranked 1st, and Phoenix is ranked 5th overall in 1st QTR points. Consider a 1Q over 56.5 or a 1Q GS ML win.
  • Phoenix leads the NBA in shooting percentage, sitting at 48.1% on the year. Guess who’s in 2nd? Yup, the Warriors at 47.9%.
  • No team makes more 3s per game than Golden State (15.2). This could be the difference maker tonight; Phoenix sits at 24th with 11.4 made per game, and they’re not very good at defending the 3, either.
  • Both teams have played strength of schedules in the bottom third of the NBA. But something to note: the Warriors are 4-0 against top 10 teams, winning each of those contests by 14+ points.
  • Golden State is top 10 in 9 different shooting categories on offense and top 10 in 7 different shooting categories on defense. Phoenix is top 10 in 7 shooting categories on offense and 6 shooting categories on defense. Pretty damn good clubs!

A big point of emphasis will be who wins the battle down low. The Suns are one of the best front court teams in the NBA, ranking at 6th overall with 48.5 ppg in the paint. The Warriors are #1 in the NBA defending the paint, allowing only 39.6 ppg to their opponents. I’d look at props for Ayton under P/A/R or under P/R for this contest – points and opportunities won’t come easy against Draymond Green and that lock-down Warriors defense. I would also look at betting a live total (under) in the 2nd half. The Suns are 12th overall in 3rd quarter defense, and no team in the NBA is better in the 2nd half than the Warriors. Golden State ranks #1 in the 3rd and 4th quarters on defense, allowing only 22.8 and 23.4 points, respectively, in those final two 12 minute periods.

No matter how you bet this game, this should be a highly entertaining contest between two of the best players and on-court leaders, two of the sharpest coaches, and two of the most well-balanced teams. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to just sit back and enjoy this without any bets. If you do want to bet it, consider the aforementioned plays. Enjoy the game and good luck, odds-breakers!

Premiums, 11.30

 

What’s up team! More disappointing crap from our NFL picks but hey, the NBA keeps treating us well! 4-1, and nearly +6 units last night. Let’s go! Here are my plays today:

NBA:
  • Nets -6 or -6.5 *
  • Warriors ML **
CBB:
  • Longwood +9 *
  • Northwestern St/Houston under 138.5 *
  • Duke -3 *

Podcast 83 – 21 – NFL Week 12 and College Football Week 13 Recap – Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 13 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 13 and NFL week 12 with some upsets and some great performances.  Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football championship week and NFL Week 13.   Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for college football championship week!  Then, D-Nasty comes on and the guys talk some fantasy football for week 13.  Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed.  Finally, Dave and Kiev give out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football matchup or DFS!  Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers

Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds21 for 10% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves!  Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups.   You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.

NHL Preview & Picks – November 29, 2021

The NHL continues to roll on… Only four games going tonight highlighted by the Penguins taking on the Flames.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Calgary Flames

  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Pittsburgh Penguins: 10-7-4, 5th Metropolitan (5-2-2 Away)
  • Calgary Flames: 12-4-5, 2nd Pacific (3-2-3 Home)
Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Pittsburgh Penguins +120 +120 +1.5 (-200) o5.5 (+105)
Calgary Flames -140 -140 -1.5 (+170) u5.5 (-125)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
  • Pittsburgh are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Calgary are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary’s last 5 games at home.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins enter this game off a 6-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night. Prior to that loss, they were on a five game win streak that included wins over Toronto, Winnipeg, and the Islanders.

Pittsburgh struggled during the early portion of the season mainly due to a bunch of injuries to key guys. Sidney Crosby, missed several games due to Covid protocols and has finally started to find his touch again, collecting three points in the past two games. While the Penguins are close to full strength they are still missing two offensive weapons in Evgeni Malkin (knee surgery) and Bryan Rust (lower body).

Offensively, the Penguins haven’t been great but, to their credit have preformed better than expected given the circumstances. They have one of the highest Expected Goal Percentages in the League with a 55.16%. However, they haven’t been able to capitalize on chances they should have, seen in their Goals For Above Expected (-5.1). They’re middle of the road in Goals For Per 60 averaging 2.44 which is slightly lower than their Expected Goals For Per 60. This team is great at generating chances including High Danger Shots For but needs to take advantage of those opportunities which they’ve been much better as of late.

Defensively, they have been pretty standard with a -1.1 Goals Against Above Expected. One highlight for this defense is their ability to kill penalties as they rank 1st in the NHL in PK %. They’re giving up an average of 2.16 Goals Against Per 60 which ranks 13th, slightly above average. In their last six games Pittsburgh’s defense has only given up more than 2 goals once, and is averaging 0.83 goals against. Tristan Jarry has been confirmed the starter for tonight and has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season. He has a +9.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and only allowed two goals in his last five starts.

 

Calgary Flames

Like the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Calgary Flames are also coming off a loss on Saturday. Calgary was on a four winning streak before being beaten at home 4-2 by the Winnipeg Jets.

The Flames offensively have been great this year with a 54.08 Expected Goals Percentage and averaging 2.58 Goals For Per 60. Johnny Gaudreau leads the team with 25 points through their first 21 games this year. Calgary has been one of the best teams at taking advantage of every scoring chance they get. They have a +1.16 Goals For Above Expected which ranks 9th in the League. On the man advantage the Flames have also been good, ranking 7th in PP%, but will have their hands full tonight.

While Calgary’s offense has been good, the Flames defense highlighted by Jacob Markstrom’s play, has been the story. The Flames currently lead the league in Goals Against Above Expected with -13.38. In addition to GAAx, they rank first in Goals Against Per 60 averaging just 1.35. Like their Power Play, the Flames have been good on the Penalty Kill with a 88.2%. However, Jacob Markstrom has been the star of the show for this team as previously mentioned. He enters the game with a +9.7 Goals Saved Above Expected and a league leading 5 shutouts.

 

PICK: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (+120) 

PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-125)

While both teams can generate offense, this should be a low scoring game given the goaltending matchup. I see this as more of a 50-50 game and given Pittsburgh’s road record, I like them here. Another interesting note is that Calgary has a better record on the road than they do at home.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.