Thursday Card has a rare 6* NFL Total backed with a Perfect Totals System specific to the Thursday night Football. In Hoops a Powerful NCAAB Card led by a 5* RPI Scale System. NBA Comp Play below.
The NBA Comp Play is on Chicago at 7:40 eastern. The Knicks fit the system below which has Home dogs at 2-10 to the spread off a road loss where they scored 107 or more points and won the prior game as a road dog , if their opponent comes in off a home favored win. Chicago has covered 4 of 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. NY has failed to cover all 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record, 6 of 8 at home and 8 of 10 after scoring 100 or more. Chicago is the better team across the board on offense, defense, Rebounding and from the line. Look for the Bulls to get the cover. On Thursday night our lead play is a rare 6* on the NFL Thursday night Total backed with a Perfect Totals System. In College Hoops another 5* RPI Scale Court Crusher. See u at goldencontender@aol.com to Jump on as we stay hot NBA Cashed out with Charlotte last night. For the NBA Play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU 1-11
ATS 2-10
Dec 29, 2012 recap Sat 2012 Rockets Thunder home 94-124 0&1 4.5 213.5 -30 -25.5 4.5 10.5 -15.0 L L O
Apr 16, 2014 recap Wed 2013 Celtics Wizards home 102-118 1&1 7.5 199.0 -16 -8.5 21.0 -6.25 -14.75 L L O
Mar 07, 2015 recap Sat 2014 Nuggets Rockets home 100-114 0&0 4.5 214.0 -14 -9.5 0.0 4.75 -4.75 L L P
Nov 10, 2016 recap Thu 2016 Nuggets Warriors home 101-125 1&0 6.5 221.0 -24 -17.5 5.0 6.25 -11.25 L L O
Dec 28, 2018 recap Fri 2018 Lakers Clippers home 107-118 0&1 5.5 229.0 -11 -5.5 -4.0 4.75 -0.75 L L U
Jan 09, 2019 recap Wed 2018 Wizards Seventysixers home 123-106 0&0 2.5 228.5 17 19.5 0.5 -10.0 9.5 W W O
Mar 06, 2019 recap Wed 2018 Hawks Spurs home 104-111 1&1 6.5 234.0 -7 -0.5 -19.0 9.75 9.25 L L U
Apr 18, 2019 recap Thu 2018 Nets Seventysixers home 115-131 2&2 3.5 229.5 -16 -12.5 16.5 -2.0 -14.5 L L O
Oct 30, 2019 recap Wed 2019 Wizards Rockets home 158-159 3&1 8.0 234.0 -1 7.0 83.0 -45.0 -38.0 L W O
Sep 08, 2020 recap Tue 2019 Rockets Lakers home 102-112 1&1 4.5 222.5 -10 -5.5 -8.5 7.0 1.5 L L U
Jan 27, 2021 recap Wed 2020 Raptors Bucks home 108-115 0&2 6.5 228.0 -7 -0.5 -5.0 2.75 2.25 L L U
May 29, 2021 recap Sat 2020 Grizzlies Jazz home 111-121 2&2 5.0 224.5 -10 -5.0 7.5 -1.25 -6.25 L L O
Dec 02, 2021 recap Thu 2021 Knicks Bulls home – 1&2 2.0 214.0
539/ 540 Minnesota at Washington 1H Total 111.5/ Game total 218
Books opened this full game total at 216.5 and it now sits at 218. Just a few hours ago we saw this total creep down to 216. So we’re getting some different looks from the market. Currently, 89% of the money is on the over in this one.
Looking at the matchup, we have both teams in the bottom half of the NBA in offensive efficiency and both in the top half in defensive efficiency. When we look at points scored, we have Minnesota coming in 14th (108 ppg) and Washington at 19th (106 ppg). We can see Minnesota may not be the best shooting squad thus far at 26th in FG% and 21st in 3FG%. While the Wizards sit at 11th FG%, they also have been struggling with the 3PT shot hitting at a 32% clip, 26th in the league.
Typically, I think defensive trends control the pace in basketball. And in this instance, we have two teams that play defense (both top 9 in blocked shots, MIN 4th in steals), rebound well (both in top 11), and aren’t the best shooting squads. All these looks equal a recipe for the under. The Wizards are 8-13 O/U, and 2-6 1H under at home. Although the T-Wolves are 5-3 O/U on the road and are hot, on the season they are also 8-13 O/U. I like the trends and the matchup for the under.
539 MIN UN 218* / 1H UN 111.5*
Other Recent Market Swings
Once injury reports begin to be released at 5 pm prior to game starts, we often see swings in the market. These swings can give telling information about these teams’ roster.
541/ 542 Atlanta at Indiana
Seeing some money come in on Indiana as it looks like Cam Reddish is also added to the Hawks’ IR. Injuries are piling up for the Hawks as SG Bogdanivc has been ruled out since Sunday. I expect Hawks’ PG Trae Young to take more of the game upon himself, which means more scoring, less defense. The Hawks thus far are 0-4 ATS in away conference games. I’m looking towards the over and the Pacers in this one, although the market is heavier on the under as they’re probably wondering where the scoring will come from for the Hawks.
542 Indiana -2* and Over 217*
547/548 Cleveland at Miami 1H Total 105
Books have adjusted to the fact that both of these teams are 1H under teams so far taking this total down to 105. We heard today that Heat C Bam Odebayo is out with a thumb injury and here we have another team whose guards will be looking to take more control over their offense.
Looking at the trends coming into this one, Cleveland is one of the best 1H spread teams at 16-5 1H ATS and 3-1 ATS in conference away games. We can see Miami is a good Home ATS team at 6-2 on the season, so I expect they’ll be looking to establish themselves early in this one. They are also 1-4 O/U versus Conference foes at home this season. I think the books have adjusted too much, and with Bam out I like the over even more. Because we see CLE likes to get up on teams early and Miami is a good home team I expect them to not let the Cavs try to take this one away early by outscoring them.
547 CLE 1H total OV 105 (-110)*
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The boys are back! Steve and I both had more wins than losses in Week 12 (positive regression has reared its head) and we went 3-2 in Circa! We need more 4-1 and 5-0s but we’ll take it for now. Here’s our NFL Week 13 ATS Breakdown pod below!
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NBA: 75-59 (56%), +23.63 units NFL Circa Picks: 38-21-1
Guys, we had a rough one last night!! It was very painful watching the Minnesota/Pitt game last night and it hurt even more as the Gophers failed to cover. The other game that could have went either way was the Northwestern game (which I gave out yesterday) as they lost in OT. We have 3 Premiums for tonight with one of them below! Even after a 0-3 night last night, we are off to a 21-14 start in CBB to begin the season! Get all of my plays through the OddsBreakers with my Exclusive Sides Subscription HERE
The Dartmouth Big Green will travel to Patrick Gymnasium to take on the Vermont Catamounts tonight with tip scheduled for 7 PM ET. The Big Green won their 3rd straight game and improved to 3-1 on the season after defeating the Bryant Bulldogs 63-61 in overtime and the Vermont Catamounts had their 2-game winning streak snapped and dropped to 5-3 on the season after being defeated by the UNC Greensboro Spartans 54-51 this past Saturday. Dartmouth is averaging 75.8 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and are allowing their opponents to average 67.0 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field. Vermont is averaging 63.1 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field, own a effective field goal % of 45.9% (274th in nation) and rank 345th in three point shooting (25%). Defensively, Vermont is holding their opponents to an average of 56.9 points per game on 38.6% shooting from the field. There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here as both squads have a preference to play basketball at a snails pace. Vermont is 326th nationally in game pace while Dartmouth currently ranks 299th. Dartmouth also has a 339th ranked average possession length while the Catamounts rank 196th. The Big Green enter ranked 303rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and will have to go against a defense ranking 55th in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency. I don’t see Dartmouth scoring much more than 50 points and Vermont may get to 65 which will point us towards the total here. Take Under 124
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*CBB(1u): UNLV +8.5(-110) @ SMU–7 PM CT
UNLV is 4-3 on the season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The Rebels’ losses have come to #5 UCLA, #24 Michigan, and Wichita State(lost by 1). They also picked up a solid win at home against Cal earlier in the season. Unlike UNLV, SMU(5-3) has played a cupcake schedule; when they were challenged by Oregon, they were non-competitive and lost that game by 23. SMU’s defense has let them down up to this point; they’ve allowed 66 or more points in each of their past 4 games. While UNLV might not have the best metrics, you have to factor in who they’ve played and the amount of transfer talent they accumulated over the offseason. These teams are much more evenly matched than this line would indicate, so I’ve got no problem grabbing the points with the road ‘dog.
Oklahoma rightfully has a reputation as a consistent contender in College Basketball, but it was former coach Lon Kruger who amassed that success. The Sooners are still in year 1 under Porter Mosier; it is often underlooked that it takes an adjustment period(if not a year or two) for a new coach to implement his system into a new program. On the court, Oklahoma has struggled to consistently get their offense in a rhythm; they put up just 65 points against UCF and 57 points against Houston Baptist in their last 2 games. The Sooners might be 5-1, but their strength of schedule up to this point is ranked just 305th out of 358 qualifying teams. Florida has jumped out to a fast 6-0 start with impressive wins over Florida State and Ohio State. Mike White has made the tournament in each of the past 4 seasons, and this might just be his best team yet. The Gators play a punishing style of defense that should match up well this the slow-paced, inefficient Oklahoma offense. Florida is further along as a program right now than Oklahoma, and I think they’ll win this game tonight.
*CBB(1u): Coastal Carolina TT UNDER 68.5(-115) vs South Carolina–6 PM CT
Coastal Carolina has the 270th best offense in basketball according to KenPom and have scored just 62 PPG against D1 competition this season. South Carolina presents their toughest matchup yet; while the Gamecocks project more as an NIT team this season, that is more due to their offensive woes than their defense. South Carolina is allowing just 64 PPG this season and shouldn’t be phased by an inept Chanticleer offense. This TT for Coastal Carolina is far too high; I’ll play it Under.
I know how bad NFL Teasers have been; don’t care. I love this teaser and I put 4 personal units on it. Use your own discretion but it’s a 4 unit play for me.
You already know what I’m going to say. We lost last night but were we on the wrong side? I think not. The Nets blew a big lead and the Warriors, despite Curry having the WORST shooting night of his career, stayed in that entire game and almost pulled ahead multiple times in the 4th. Bet your ass I’ll be looking to wager on them on Friday at the Chase Center for the rematch.
Not sure how Duke blew a late game lead, either. One of those nights, but we keep on chugging along.
The NHL has 6 games going tonight with the highlighted matchup being the Colorado Avalanche vs the Toronto Maple Leafs. I breakdown that game below and offer my pick for what should be an exciting showdown.
Colorado Avalanche @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Colorado Avalanche: 11-6-1, 4th Central (4-4-0 Away)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 16-6-1, 1st Atlantic (9-3-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-101
+110
+1.5 (-220)
o6.0 (+100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
-109
-130
-1.5 (+180)
u6.0 (-120)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado’s last 10 games.
Colorado are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto’s last 7 games.
Toronto are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
Preview:
What a treat we have tonight as the Colorado Avalanche travel to Toronto to take on the Leafs. There’s several storylines in this game starting with the return of Nathan MacKinnon to the Avalanche lineup after missing 8 games. MacKinnon had a great start to the season tallying 10 points in his first 8 games before suffering a lower body injury back in November.
Another storyline to follow is the return of Nazem Kadri. He’ll be playing in his first game in Toronto since he was traded to Colorado back in 2019. At the time to Leafs had limited solutions to their salary cap woes and were forced to move Kadri for some relief.
Colorado Avalanche
The Av’s have had an up and down start to the season but, have seemd to have found their footing. Right now Colorado is one of the hottest teams in the League and gets their star Center back who had 65 points last season.
Offensively, Colorado has averaged 5.38 goals for during the last 8 games propelling them to a 7-1 run. The only game that they lost was last Friday to the Stars, where they only scored once. Despite the loss, Colorado beat Dallas in Expected Goals, 3.07-2.84. The only reason they lost was due to the play of Jake Oettinger who finished the game with a +1.99 GSAx.
They have one of the best xGoal % (54.54%) and Goals For Above Expected (6.07) in the NHL. Colorado averages 4 goals per game, which ranks 1st, and are still scoring at a higher rate as of late. The Avalanche have only generated 35 High Danger Chances on the year, which is middle of the pack. Despite this, they still have the best goals for average making them even more dangerous. With MacKinnon out, Kadri has stepped up, and leads the team with 27 points through 20 games.
Defensively, the Avalanche have struggled as seen by their +6.05 Goals Against Above Expected. Colorado also ranks near the bottom of the League in Goals Against Per 60 with a 2.55. Although the Avalanche’s have had some woes defensively, Cale Makar has been a bright spot averaging 1.25 goals per game. Another positive aspect of this Colorado defense is that they have only allowed 28 High Danger Shots Against.
Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start going 9-5-0 in his starts this season. I don’t normally like to include the goalies record because it’s more of an indicator of team play, and that’s precisely what it is here. Based on individual goalie analytics, Kuemper hasn’t been great posting a -3.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Kuemper was expected to take over for Phillip Grubauer, who signed with the Kraken in the off season. However, Grubauer posted a +5.2 GSAx last season and clearly Darcy Kuemper isn’t close to that number. The bad news for the Av’s is that Kuemper doesn’t look to be turning it around and backup Jonas Johansson is also struggling (-8.8 GSAx).
Toronto Maple Leafs
Well enough talk of the Colorado Avalanche, lets talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs have turned things around after a less than ideal start to the year going 1-4 in their first 5 games. They are currently on a four game win streak and tied for 1st in the Atlantic with the Florida Panthers. Like the team, Austin Matthews had a slow start to the season but, has found his groove as of late. He was ridiculed by the Toronto media but fired a shot back a few nights ago saying “Honestly, could care less about what you guys say”.
While the Maples Leafs only average 2.87 goals for on the year, they have been much better during this four game winning streak averaging 4.5 per game. Toronto has one of the best xGoals % of 55.35%, while having one of the worst Goals For Above Expected with a -12.77. The Leafs have generated 53 High Danger Chances on the year as well. All these stats indicate that while Toronto has been generating scoring chances, but they’re failing to capitalize on these chances. Captain, and Canadian native, John Tavares leads the team in points with 22 through 22 games. One injury to monitor for the Leafs is Ondrej Kase, who is out indefinitely with an upper body injury. He’s not a house hold name like some other players on this team, but has the best xGoals Per 60 on the team with a +1.3.
On the opposite side of the puck, the Maple Leads have been solid. They currently are allowing the 2nd least goals per game averaging just 2.13. However, this may be an indicator of goalie play rather than defensive ability which I’ll touch on later. Toronto also has the 2nd best Goals Above Expected with a -12.77. Although, the Leafs have put Jack Campbell in a tough spot more times than than the league average, allowing 39 High Danger Shots Against.
Speaking of Jack Campbell, he is expected to get the start in net for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. He’s been sensational this year, and has stolen several games for them. Campbell has a +16.7 GSAx only behind Sergei Bobrovsky of the Panthers. In his last 5 starts, he has only given up 6 goals (1.2 GAA).
Pick:
Looking at the line for tonight, the early action has already started to come in on Toronto. The Leafs opened around -110 on the moneyline but, have shifted to -130. I understand this partly due to the Maple Leafs current form, and the advantage in net. However, they have not played an offense as loaded as Colorado’s and a team that can go goal-for-goal with them. If this game goes under the total, currently 6, I like the Leafs, but, if the total goes over, then I give the advantage to Colorado. So what’s my angle?
Both teams have similar puck possession stats, based on the chart from LeftWingLock. Putting personal bias aside, as a Avalanche fan growing up, I see the Maple Leafs spoiling Kadri’s coming home party. While the Closing Line Value on Toronto isn’t great, I think the combination Toronto’s new found ability to score and advantage in net, pushes them over Colorado in a close one. Given my Toronto pick, I also lean under 6.0 in this game.
PICK: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (-130)
Other plays for tonight:
SEATTLE KRAKEN/ DETROIT RED WINGS OVER 5.5 (-110)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
The Hero World Challenge is back after being postponed in 2020 due to COVID-19 regulations. The field this week is comprised of 20 golfers, 19 are in the world’s top 50 plus defending champion Henrik Stenson. This weeks event is not an official PGA Tour event and does not award any FedEx Cup points. However, it does have a nice $1 Million Dollar prize for the winner and counts towards the Official World Golf ranking. This event is essentially an “All Star Game” for the golf world as its an exclusive invite only event comprised of the biggest names in golf.
Tournament Information:
Dates: December 2nd, 2021- December 5th, 2021
Location: New Providence, Nassau, Bahamas
Course: Albany Golf Club
Par: 72 (5x 3’s / 8x 4’s / 5x 5’s)
Length: 7,302 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 20 Players | No Cut
Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .090”
Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .400”
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 1.5”
Stimpmeter: 12.0
Purse: $3,500,000 / Winner $1.0 Million
Bunkers: 52
Water Hazards: 3
Average Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
2019: 69.792 (-2.208)
Course/ Tournament History:
This tournament made is debut in 2000 where it was staged twice, the first taking place in January and the second in December. The January event took place at Grayhawk Golf Club and the second at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California. The Hero World Challenge continued to take place at Sherwood until 2013. In 2014, it was switched to Isleworth and in 2015 it moved to the Albany where it currently remains. Tiger Woods is the host for this event and has the most wins with 5 (2001, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011).
The tournament has gone by the following names in the past:
Williams Word Challenge (2000-2001)
Target World Challenge presented by Williams (2002-2003)
Target World Challenge presented by Countrywide (2004-2007)
Chevron World Challenge presented by Bank of America (2008-2009)
Chevron World Challenge (2010-2011)
World Challenge presented by Northwestern Mutual (2012)
The Albany Golf Club has a unique layout as it’s comprised of five Par 3’s and Par 5’s. The course it’s self is an oceanfront course but is described as having the characteristics of both a links and desert course. It’s a tough course to really handicap given the variety in in which players have won in the past. We’ve seen players rely on their short game and putting to win but, we’ve also seen bombers off the tee use that distance to win. Despite the different way players have won, one thing remains constant, and that’s a low score needed to win. If any player wants to have a chance here they need to capitalize on every scoring opportunity.
Despite Thomas’ “sub-par” 2021 season, which included a Players Championship, he seems to be trending in the right direction. He’s had some great finishes recently and has some course knowledge competing in this event three times prior. While his finishes haven’t been great, he’s almost due for a win to solidify his spot as one of the worlds best players. He may also have a little extra motivation this week to get a win in front of his mentor/ friend Tiger Woods.
Sam Burns (+1600) – FanDuel
Sam Burns is one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now and can make a statement here. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October and since then has gone T14, T5, and T7. Burns is 1st in SG: Tee to Green and 4th in SG: Approach. The only downside to betting burns this week is that this is his tournament debut.
Brooks Koepka (+2500) – DraftKings
Brooks is coming off The Match, where he absolutely man handled Bryson Dechambeau on the golf course. He looked to be in great form and is at 25-1 in a 20 man field?? This line is flat out disrespectful to a guy that has won four majors. He hasn’t done well at this event in the past but maybe now that the Bryson beef is done, maybe he goes on a little bit of a tear? He has the ability to play these long Par 5’s well and if the drivers working he should set himself up nicely here. His switch to Strixon has seemed to make a positive impact on his iron game which is another encouraging sign.
Pick (Top 10):
Patrick Reed (+135)- FanDuel
Reed loves this course, he has finished Top 10 in five of his six events at the Albany with the only outlier being an 11th place finish in 2018. I know he’s not in great form but given his previous results and at plus money, it’s hard not to have some action on him.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
