- Heat -7 **
- Clippers/Grizzlies over 220 *
- 76ers/Nuggets under 209.5 **
- Falcons +7 *
- St. Bonaventure/Boise St. under 131.5 **
- Marquette +4 *
Time captioned below. We have a HUGE show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks and Adam Chernoff @AdamChernoff from covers.com comes on to give us some great information and plays for your College Basketball season and NFL Week 11. First, Kyle comes on and talks about some ATS and O/U trends to pay attention to for the beginning of the season. Next, Kyle and Kiev get into some pace changes in college basketball and some potential spots for opportunity. Then, Kiev and Kyle give out an under the radar team that could make some ATS noise this year and might make the big dance. After that, Adam Chernoff comes on to talk some NFL football! First, the guys talk about Cam Newton and the Tennessee Titans. Next, the guys break down the full slate of NFL games from an ATS perspective with some information, leans and some picks and plays. Then, Kiev gives out our REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 5-5 so far for the NFL 2021 season. Next, Kiev talks some college football games, and gives out some FREE PLAYS as well as a UFC fight night on ESPN play. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
0 – 3:12 – Intro
3:12 – 30:15 – Big 10 College Basketball Preview
30:15 – 1:41:35 – NFL Week 11 with Adam Chernoff and Teaser
1:41:35 – 1:48:33 – College Football Week 12 Plays and UFC Fight Night
1:48:33 – 1:51:15 – The Sharp Side of The Force
NFL: Dallas vs Kansas City – Green Bay vs Minnesota and more!
NCAA: Syracuse vs NC State – Texas vs West Virginia – and more!
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The NHL originally had 12 games scheduled for tonight however, the Ottawa/ Nashville game has been postponed due to Ottawa having a COVID outbreak. There are still some great matchups tonight including Tampa Bay/ Philadelphia, New York Rangers/ Toronto, Winnipeg/ Edmonton, and Carolina/ Anaheim. I have two picks for tonight’s slate on a couple of those matchups mentioned above. Check out my preview and picks below:
Winnipeg Jets @ Edmonton Oilers
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Winnipeg Jets | +130 | +130 | +1.5 (-175) | o6.0 (-115) |
| Edmonton Oilers | -150 | -150 | -1.5 (+155) | u6.0 (-105) |
The Winnipeg Jets face take on the Edmonton Oilers for the second time in three days. Winnipeg defeated the Oilers 5-2 at home on Tuesday to jump ahead of Minnesota and take first place in the Central Division. With Edmonton’s loss the Anaheim Ducks, who I’ll get to later, took over first place in the Pacific Division. However, the Oilers do have two games on the Ducks.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets come into Edmonton on a three game win streak that included a win over the Oilers, as I previously mentioned. Winnipeg has been dominant all year at home with a 7-1-1 record but have struggled on the road. So far this year the Jets have been great offensively averaging 2.62 goals for per 60. They have generated the 4th most high danger shots for with 33 which ranks 3rd in the NHL. Kyle Connor leads the team with 20 points through 15 games, scoring in his last four games. Nikolaj Ehlers is questionable for the Jets as he’s battling an Illness, while Paul Stastny has been downgraded to out.
Defensively Winnipeg has been great with a -10.61 goals against above expected. They currently rank 8th in goals allowed but, have much better as of late only allowing 1.3 goals in their last 6 games. One stat that should worry the Jets here is that they have allowed the third most high danger shots against and face one of the best offenses in the NHL. Connor Hellebuyck is expected to start and has been great this year with a +5.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). In his last game vs Edmonton he held them to 2 goals finishing with a +1.21 GSAx.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have regressed a bit from their hot start alternating between wins and losses their last 7 games. Some of those losses in that stretch have come to surprising opponents including Buffalo and Detroit. However, their wins have come against some impressive opponents such as Boston, New York (R), and St. Louis. They should respond well against the Jets here after getting embarrassed. Mikko Koskinen was pulled in that game after surrendering 4 goals on 26 shots.
The Oilers offense has been the highlight of this team for the past few years and continues to shine. The Oilers average 4 goals per game and have a 2.78 goals for per 60. One mismatch that favors Edmonton is their Power Play. The Oilers have the best Power Play % in the NHL with a 42.6% conversion rate while the Jets have the worst Penalty Kill % with a 64.3%. Their offense is led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid who are first and second in the NHL in points.
The main reason for the regression of the Oilers is due to their defense. To start the year they surprised most by shutting down most teams but, as of late are averaging 4.4 goals against in their last 5 games. They’re have an average of 3.33 goals allowed on the year so you can see how much they’ve struggled recently. Mikko Koskinen will not get his chance at redemption here as Stuart Skinner has been confirmed the starter for tonight. Skinner has a better GSAx (+2.1) than Koskinen (-0.5) on the year. He stopped all 8 shots he faced against the Jets when he came in for Koskinen last game.
PICK #1: EDMONTON OILERS (-150)
If you’re not comfortable laying the juice, Edmonton to win in Regulation -0.5 is +110
PICK #2: OVER 6.0 (-115)
The Oilers should rebound here after a brutal performance against the Jets last time out and put some goals on the board. The Jets allow more goals than they do on the road and average less goals for. Edmonton has been solid at home all year and have a mismatch on the man advantage. They were 50% on the Power Play last game vs Winnipeg which is an encouraging sign. The Jets offense has been clicking and face a weak Oilers defense so they should be able to do close to the same thing offensively as they did last time out. This should be a closer affair so I’m guessing a 4-3 game with a Edmonton goal coming late.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Anaheim Ducks
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Carolina Hurricanes | -150 | -140 | -1.5 (+165) | o5.5 (-110) |
| Anaheim Ducks | +130 | +120 | +1.5 (-195) | u5.5 (-110) |
Anaheim Ducks
No one could have expected the Ducks to start the season 10-4-3 and lead the Pacific, yet here we are. The Anaheim Ducks have rattled off 8 straight wins with their last loss coming against the Golden Knights on October 29. Prior to this 8 game win streak, they were on a 6 game losing streak which shows how streaky this team is.
The Ducks offense has found its groove as of late improving from the beginning of the year yet still ranks middle of the NHL in expected goals for per 60 with 2.2. Anaheim has a +1.56 goal differential above expected which correlates to their high shooting %. This means that they’re converting scoring chances at a rate higher than expected. Their Power Play has also been a strong suit for them with a 27.8 conversion rate (4th in NHL). Troy Terry, a Denver University product, leads the team in points with 21. Long time Captain Ryan Getzlaf has also found his scoring touch recently becoming the first player in Ducks history to reach 1000 points.
Anaheim’s defense has been much improved this year averaging just 2.65 goals against, good enough for 10th in the league. However, they are allowing a lot of shots against which may be an issue against this high powered Carolina offense. John Gibson is expected to get the start who has been average this year with a -0.2 GSAx. He’s allowed 2 goals or less in his last 7 starts with the exception of the game against the Kraken where he gave up 4.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Cane’s will give Anaheim their toughest matchup as of late and should halt their winning streak. Carolina is a very good team and one of my current selections to win the Stanley Cup (+1400 now). They are playing some phenomenal hockey and clicking on all cylinders.
Carolina also comes into this matchup on a winning streak, while not as impressive as the Ducks, they have rattled off back to back wins. The Hurricanes got off to a great start winning their first 9 games then falling to the Panthers and Flyers. This will be the second game on the road for Carolina in the middle of their five game road trip.
Offensively the Hurricanes rank 4th in goals per game averaging 3.5 and 3rd in goals per 60 with 2.97. However, in their last three games Carolina has only averaged 2.33 goals. The Hurricanes also have a +2.51 goals above expected with one of the best shooting % on shots on goal (8.88%). Andrei Svechnikov leads the team on offense averaging over a point per game with 18 points through 14 games. Carolina may get Martin Necas back from an undisclosed injury, while Brett Pesce is out indefinitely.
Defensively, Carolina ranks first in goals allowed per game with 1.91 and have a 1.63 goals against per 60. The Hurricanes have given up 32 high danger shots against which is 5th worst. This could become an issue here as the Ducks have a high rate of capitalizing on scoring opportunities. One strong point for Carolina’s team defense is that they have been good on the Penalty Kill ranking 7th (86.7%). Frederick Anderson is expected to start and has been one of the best goalies in the NHL so far. He has a +11.0 GSAx through his 11 starts with a 1.77 GAA.
PICK: CAROLINA HURRICANES (-140)
If you’re not comfortable laying the juice, Carolina to win in Regulation -0.5 is +110
This a matchup between two of the leagues best teams. They’re both top 10 on offense and on defense. The one mismatch is that Carolina has the clear advantage in is in net, if Anderson and Gibson both start. I like Carolina in this spot to end the Ducks win streak. Both teams are coming off the same amount of rest but, Anaheim has not seen a team play as fast as Carolina does. The Ducks will give the Canes a game here but I think that the Hurricanes get it done on the road.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Potential Let Down Spots:
Rest Spots:
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The NHL rolls on as we have three games on tap for tonight. All games are out west which means late start times for anyone on the east coast. The game I like tonight is the Colorado Avalanche taking on the Vancouver Canucks. I breakdown the matchup between these two teams and offer my two plays below.
Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Colorado Avalanche | -150 | -155 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.0 (+100) |
| Vancouver Canucks | +130 | +135 | +1.5 (-180) | u6.0 (-120) |
Colorado Avalanche
The preseason favorites to win the Stanley Cup have not gotten off to the start they would have liked. They currently sit in 6th Place in the Central with a record just above .500%. However, they have been playing much better as of late going 4-2 in their last 6 games.
Colorado is still without superstar Nathan MacKinnon who’s out indefinitely with a lower body injury. In addition to MacKinnon the Avalanche have several other key players injured including J.T. Compher (upper body), Bowen Byram (concussion), Martin Kaut (shoulder), and Stefan Matteau (leg).
Despite these players missing, the Avs offense seems to have finally found their groove averaging 5 goals per game during that six game stretch. This recent push has propelled them near the top of the league in expected goals per 60 minutes with 2.54. Nazem Kadri has led the charge offensively for Colorado with 14 points through 12 games. He’s currently on a 6 game point streak collecting 3 goals and 7 assists during that stretch.
Colorado’s defense currently ranks 25th in goals allowed, averaging 3.25 per game. This may be a misleading stat as the Avalanche rank near the top of the league in expected goals against per 60 with 2.12. The defense also ranks top 10 in the league in high danger chances against only allowing 21. Darcy Kuemper has been confirmed the starter tonight and enters this game with a -2.0 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). However, as of late he’s been better with a +0.48 and +1.44 GSAx in his last two starts.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks are another team that has struggled during the beginning stretch of the season going 5-9-2. They’re currently on a 4 game skid which includes a 7-1 loss to Colorado last week.
When you look at this team, they seem to be struggling in every aspect. On offense, they rank 25th in goals per game averaging just 2.5. They’re generating scoring opportunities but can’t seem to capitalize on those opportunities with one of the lowest shooting %’s in the league. J.T. Miller leads the team with 18 points while Quinn Hughes is behind him with 14. One player that Vancouver needs to step up is Brock Boeser who led the team in points last year but is averaging just 0.5 point per game. He was out for a few games with an undisclosed injury and has gone pointless in his last three games.
Vancouver’s defense hasn’t been much better ranking 27th in the league giving up an average of 3.38 goals per game. Their penalty kill has also been atrocious ranking dead last in the league. To the Canucks credit, they do have a -4.33 goals against above expected, meaning they have allowed less goals than what was expected. Thatcher Demko, shoutout Boston College, is expected to get the nod tonight. He hasn’t been great with a 3.33 GAA with a .898 SV%. However, to his credit he only has a -1.0 GSAx which puts some blame on the team defense as they’ve allowed 31 high danger shots against.
PICK: COLORADO AVALANCHE TO WIN IN REGULATION -0.5 (-110)
PICK: COLORADO AVALANCHE TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (+115)
The Avalanche come into this game on a great steak and face a struggling Canucks team. Vancouver is currently allowing the 7th most high danger chances against a Colorado team that’s found it’s grove on offense. As previously mentioned, in Colorado’s last 6 games they’re averaging 5 goals and are up against a team allowing 3.38 goals against. The Av’s defense has been playing much better and should shut down the Canucks offense that hasn’t shown many signs of life. I like Colorado to win in regulation while scoring over 3.5 goals.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Potential let down spots:
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Coming off an 0-2 night, I’m looking to get back on track tonight. I’m rolling with a lone NBA free play before getting things ramped up for the football weekend. My November record currently sits at 26-20, +5.22u; premium plays are 68-32-1, +50.45u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Hornets ML(-115) vs Wizards–6:10 PM CT
The Wizards might be off to a 10-3 start this season, but I still believe the Hornets are the better team entering this matchup. Washington is currently on a 5 game win streak, but their last 3 games have come against weaklings like Cleveland, Orlando, and New Orleans. In that game against New Orleans just 2 days ago, they trailed by 17 at the Half and needed to muster together a massive effort in the second half to win that game. Safe to say, I believe regression is due for the Wizards. Charlotte(8-7) has had an up-and-down season to this point, but they enter in great current form coming off 3 straight wins against the Knicks, Grizzlies, and Warriors. Tonight’s game will be the the 3rd of a 4 game home stand for Charlotte, and the Hornets enjoyed 2 days of rest coming into today. Washington is going to regress to their mean, and I think we see their luck start to run out tonight.