NCAA football is finally back and we are ready to get things going!!! Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog breaks down his college football picks for week 1. He also goes over the sharp action report and line movement that has happened over the summer for these week 1 college football lines.
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Value in Week O is on Wyoming going into their opener against New Mexico St. I expect NM St to take some time to gel on offense returning only 41% of offensive production. Also, Wyoming strength is in their defense where they return almost 75% of production. I don’t expect this Wyoming team to suffer without Josh Allen as they return 79% of offensive production. NM St is returning 80% of production on defense but that same defense let up almost 400 yards per game. Tyler Vander Waal will take over under center, he’s no Josh Allen but you don’t need to be to win games against group of 5 competition. Expect Craig Bohl to run the ball often and allow Tyler to take safe throws that will build confidence in his true freshman quarterback. Take Wyoming at -4. 1 star play
1. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown (Oklahoma)- Checking in at 5-11, 162lbs Junior. He is going to be very fun to watch this year. I’ve seen him play up live, up close & personal, this kid has some of the best route running skills & hands I’ve ever seen. Be sure to keep an eye out for him as Kyler Murray looks to find him.
2. ShawnRobinson (TCU) – Dual threat mobile quarterback, who has plenty of size & an arm to come with it. He’s coming into his true sophomore year at weighing 228 & standing 6-2. Now there’s plenty of hype already heading into the 2018 season with this team, as he’ll look forward to taking on the competitive Big12 conference.
3. JusticeHill (OklahomaState) – This highly talented back standing 5-10 & packing 185lbs comes into the 2018 season more hungry than ever. With expectations falling short last year, Hill looks to have another great season at running back & as well at slot WR.
Hawaii vs Colorado St -14.5. Hawaii comes in to this year with a pretty young roster. They have 5 underclassmen starters on offense and 3 on defense. Hawaii returns 58% production on offense, 74% on defense and 66% overall. This doesn’t mean much as they were a very bad team last year going 3-9 overall and 1-10-1 ATS. On the other hand, Colorado State returns the lowest production numbers in all of college football with 27% on offense, 44% on defense and 35% overall. The difference for Colorado State is that they have a grad transfer QB in K.J. Carta-Samuels who transfered in from Washington. This along with a mostly upperclassmen starters on offense and in the defensive backfield, they should be able to pick up where they left off last year. Mike Bobo will also be coaching the team in the opener after his hospital stay for peripheral neuropathy. That should give Colorado State another reason to be dominant in their home opener. Need more convincing? Since 2016, Hawaii is 7-17-1 ATS overall and 4-8 ATS on the road. Colorado State stomped Hawaii last year 51-21 and have won the last 7 in a row. Colorado State has won the last 4 meetings by an average of 19.75 points. I don’t see much changing this year. Look for Colorado State to cover -14.5 points and roll in this one. Take Colorado State -14.5 for 2U.
Ok both teams have new QBs so nothing much there. New Mexico State tho definitly has some motivation. They were kicked out of the Sunbelt and this is their first year as an independant school. I believe the line move from +5 to +3.5 is due to that. They should be motivated and its a numbers grab for a home dog… The problem with this team is that they only return 62% production with only 41% on offense and 83% on defense. NM State was good enough to make a bowl game last year and should be motivated. The problem here is the conference. While the Mac is looked at as one the better group of 5, the Sun belt is looked at as one of the worst and that didn’t bode well for the Aggies. On the other side of the coin, Wyoming returns a ton of production on offense at 79% fresh off that double digit bowl win over Central Michigan. Tyler Vaner Waal will be at the helm throwing to some experienced skill position players. Wyoming also returns a defense allowing only 17.5 PPG and 4.7 yards per play. I also think its a little to early for Wyoming to be looking ahead to WASU. Power ratings say Wyoming -5.5 Taking Wyoming -3.5
1. Now that sports wagering is legal (i like to call it sports wagering because its not as much gambling if you know what you are doing over time), what is your opinion on how its been rolled out so far in the legalized states? Some bad lines came out right away and it might be best to partner with other people in areas to get the best lines. People need to learn to only use disposable income for sports betting.
2. Is the SEC West still the best division in football? ESPN’s FPI says so but it is so close to the Big 10 east that it doesn’t really matter at this point.
3. Let’s get into some of these future prices? Florida State has great value to win the ACC at 10-1. Penn State has pretty good value at 6-1. Stanford has more Value at 3.3 -1 than Washington at even money to win the Pac 12. Utah has lots of value in the Pac 12 South. Florida has more value than South Carolina.
Kiev’s Picks: Cal at 28-1 to win Pac 12 and 750-1 ncaa championship. Wisconsin 30-1 NCAA Champtionship and 4-1 Big 10. Mich State 65-1 to win NCAA Championship and 10-1 big 10. Penn state 36-1 NCAA Championship. Texas 40-1 NCAA Champtionship. Florida 100-1 NCAA Championship and 14-1 to win SEC. Miami 6.5-1 to win ACC and 50-1 to win Championship. Buffalo 11-1 to win the MAC. Arizona 4-1 to win Pac 12 south and 120-1 to win NCAA Championship. Florida Atlantic 1000-1 to win NCAA Championship. Lots of these have hedging opportunities.
4. Do you have a sleeper team this year that can impress ATS or make a suprising run? Georgia Southern will have some value improving this year with new coach Chad Lunsford going back to the Triple Option. Buffalo will have some value.
We are very excited to have Kelly Stewart from @kellyinvegas from @wagertalk to break down some College and NFL football teams that may be coming into the season with some value ATS or possibly ones that we may look to fade! We also discuss Kelly’s amazing Proxy service for the Westgate Super Contest, The Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge as well as William Hill’s College Pick’Em. Should you need a proxy service PLEASE visit http://proxy.kellyinvegas.com/ or contact Kelly @kellyinvegas
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ESPN College Game Day’s “The Bear” Chris Fallica helps us find VALUE in the NCAA futures market. Chris and Kiev cover every power 5 conference and team futures odds in winning their side of their respective conferences as well as the NCAA Championship. They also get a little bit into some teams in the group of 5 that may have some futures value as well. Please follow us on twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog @chrisfallica
Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, Stanford, California, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, Florida State, UCF, Florida Atlantic, Boise State, Buffalo and more
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Let’s touch on the full NFL but just teams that you think will have some value ATS or totals.
Hope you all enjoyed my previous previews of the NFC East, South and West season win totals. In this article we will be breaking down the NFC North. Every team in this division has questions swirling around them about the quarterback position. Is Rodgers healthy? Was Mitch worth the 2nd pick in 2017? Was Kirk Cousins the right move in free agency? Will Matthew Stafford ever become elite? We won’t solve the mysteries in this article yet, but all 4 of those players will have a huge impact on their teams.
Chicago Bears, Over 6.5 (-150), Under 6.5 (+120)
Now this is a team I am excited to see step on the football field in 2018. New coach Matt Nagy is an offensive guru and I expect him to use all the weapons at his disposal to ensure Trubisky doesn’t feel the weight of needing to be the franchise quarterback right away. They added some serious talent with Allen Robinson, Roquan Smith, Trey Burton and got a steal in the draft with Anthony Miller. All of these weapons will join Jordan Howard, and I expect a big season out of Tarik Cohen. Weeks 1-4 include Packers (A), Seahawks, Cardinals (A) and the Bucs at home. They should start the season 2-2. Rough spot for the Bucs. A week 4 bye then the Dolphins (A), Patriots, Jets and Bills (A). Best case scenario is 3-1 worst case is 2-2. At the midpoint of the season they could be either 4-4 or 5-3. They then get the Lions, Vikings, Lions (A) and Giants (A) this is a tough stretch that could leave them 1-3. They wrap up the season with the Rams, Packers, 49ers (A) and Vikings (A). This stretch that could end with 1-3 record. I think this is a 7 win team with a lot of question marks. I will look to be on this team a lot when they are getting points.
Green Bay Packers, Over 10 (-105) Under 10 (-125)
The big question is will good Aaron Rodgers return back to full health. If so, this team is the team to beat in the NFC north simply because Rodgers can keep them in any game and is worth about 7 wins himself. The loss of Rodgers safety blanket Jordy Nelson will not hurt as much as people think with Jimmy Graham, an expanded role for Geronimo Allison and few rookie WR’s. Jaire Alexander and Wilkerson will step in immediately on defense and make an impact along with Packer faithful Clay Matthews and Nick Perry. They open up with Bears, Vikings, Redskins(A) and Bills. 3-1 to open the season is pretty certain but could be 4-0. Then the Lions(A), 49ers, Rams(A), Patriots(A). A tough stretch which could end in 2-2. Packers then take on the Dolphins, Seahawks(A), Vikings(A), Cardinals. They should go 3-1 in these games, They end the season with the Falcons, Bears (A), Jets(A) and Lions. They should end with 11 wins strong leans but avoiding the play. I am personally throwing a future on the Packers to win the NFC Championship at +400. Green Bay is a tough place to play in the winter and if they get home field I will take my chances with Rodgers.
Detroit Lions, Over 7 (-155), Under 7 (+125)
New coach, same old issues with the Lions. Can Matthew Stafford take the next step and become elite? They upgraded the OL with Frank Ragnow in round 1, free agent adds TJ Lang and Kenny Wiggins; Blount, Abdullah, and Riddick could form a great trio of RB’s to keep teams opposing defenses honest. Their wide receivers are good but not great. Let’s be real, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Luke Wilson are good players but no defensive coordinator is losing sleep over the 4 of them. On Defense I could give this in-depth report but it would probably all be lies or filled with made up nonsense. On the other hand I do love Ziggy Ansah and wish him a great season. The Lion’s schedule is surprisingly tough this year. They open the season with the Jets, 49ers(A), Patriots and Cowboys. Best case scenario is 2-2 worst case is 1-3. Then they get the Packers, bye week, Dolphins (A), Seahawks, and Vikings. A brutal 4 games which could lead end 1-3. At the midpoint I have them at 3-5. Then they get the Bears(A), Panthers, Bears and Rams, I think they split the Bears games and end this stretch 1-3. The end the season with Cardinals(A), Bills(A) Vikings, and Packers which should be 2-2. I have this as 7-9 team. Not much value left at this number.
Minnesota Vikings, Over 10 (-125) Under 10 (-105)
The Vikings have all the pieces to the puzzle and were a great team last year even without a star quarterback or an above average running back. However, they had a great defense and the journeymen Case stepped in and lead that team all year-long to everyone’s surprise. They get what should be a major upgrade at QB with Kirk Cousins. Hopefully there will be a healthy return on Dalvin Cook and bring back solid playmakers like Diggs, Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. I believe they possess one of the best defenses all around with pro bowlers littered throughout. The schedule is tough with teams combined record of 133-123. The Vikings will play the 49ers, Packers(A) Bills and Rams(A). The worst case I believe should be 2-2 however 3-1 is doable. The Rams game is a tough spot for them since they will have revenge on mind with a trip to Philly in week 5. After Philly they play the Cardinals, Jets(A), and Saints, they should finish 3-1. At the midpoint I have them 6-2 or 5-3. Week 8 the Lions, bye week, Bears(A), Packers and Patriots(A). This should be a 2-2 stretch. They end the season with Seahawks(A), Dolphins, Lions, and Bears down the stretch is possible but the look for the Lions and Bears to try to play spoiler on home field advantage. I am all in on the Over 10.
