The Rams? No comment. NBA? We love you. Onto Tuesday–
We have a great show for you today! Had some technical difficulties so Dave won’t be on this episode. First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 11 and NFL week 10 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 12 and NFL Week 11. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 12! Then, Kiev talks some fantasy football. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev gives out his and Dave’s nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Happy Monday Night all!! We have started the CBB season 4-3 and are 28-14 in our last 42 CFB plays! I have a premium CBB play for you below. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
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The Furman Paladins and the Belmont Bruins meet tonight at Curb Event Center. Furman is 2-0 so far this year after wins versus North Greenville and Louisville. As for Belmont, they lost their opener but then beat Evansville in their last outing to make them 1-1 on the young season. In 2 games, the Paladins are averaging 99 points per game and 47% from the field and 47.2% from three but that was against defenses allowing 94 points per game, 46.8% from the field and 45.7% from 3. Belmont, on the the other hand, has played defenses allowing just 65 points per game, 43% from the field and 30% from 3. Saying that, the Bruins have played the better strength of schedule (again, small sample) but have played well scoring 80.5 points per game after hitting close to 50 percent of their shots from the field (49.6%) The Bruins are also 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 17th in the country in near-proximity field goal percentage at 64.77%. The Paladins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win while the Bruins are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win. Belmont should cover this game and win by 8-10 points. Take Belmont -5.5
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The NHL only has two games going tonight. The Islanders take on the Lightning and the Red Wings travel to Columbus to face the Blue Jackets.
New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| New York Islanders | +115 | +115 | +1.5 (-220) | o5.5 (+115) |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -135 | -135 | -1.5 (+180) | u5.5 (-135) |
These two teams know each other very well as they have met in the Eastern Conference finals the past two years. The Lightning have bested them in both of those series in route to back to back Stanley Cup victories.
The Islanders travel to Tampa for game 12 of their unprecedented 13 game season-opening road trip. They’ll take on the Panthers tomorrow night before heading home and having a few days off. New York is coming off back to back loss against Minnesota and New Jersey. They faced the Devils last week Thursday getting shutout on the road 4-0. However, they’ve had a three days off since then and look to make a strong push here against a team that’s had their number in the past.
They haven’t had a great start to the season as they sit in the basement of the Metropolitan division. The biggest issue this team has is their inability to generate and capitalize on scoring opportunities. They are dead last in high danger scoring chances and third to last in expected goals for (23.12).
Despite their offensive struggles, they have been great on defense allowing the sixth least goals per game (2.55). The Isles have a -5.05 goals against above expected which ranks near the top of the league in terms of team defenses. Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start in net tonight posting a +5.3 GSAx on the year.
Tampa Bay has turned things around after their up and down start to the season. They have won five of their last seven games coming into tonight. On Saturday they defeated the Panthers in OT 3-2, behind a stellar performance from Vasilevskiy.
As I mentioned before, the Bolts struggled early, specifically at home but, have been much better as of late. They have are tied with the fourteenth most goals per game (3.0) despite Nikita Kucherov’s absence. Captain Steven Stamkos leads the team in points with 15 after struggling with injuries the past few years. Their Power Play continues to be mediocre without Kucherov up top. They haven’t been as potent as the Tampa Bay teams of past on offense this year.
The Lightning are also giving up the seventeenth most goals per game (2.92). Tampa’s defense has always been their weakest part and continue to be middle of the road. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been confirmed as the starter tonight. He seems to have found his footing after a rough start to the season with a +5.7 GSAx.
PICK: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-135)
This should be a low scoring affair tonight in Tampa given the offensive struggles both teams have had. Sorokin and Vasilevskiy have been playing well as of late however, both offenses do have the ability to randomly get hot so the total is a stay away for me. The Bolts have been great at home as of late and seem to be hitting their stride. I’m taking Tampa at home tonight in a close one.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Tonight we have an exciting divisional game between the Rams and 49ers with SF at home after their BYE, and the Rams looking ahead to a BYE. In Sean McVay’s tenure, the Rams are 4-0 SU the week before a BYE and we all know the 49ers atrocious home ATS record since Shannahan has been the coach in SF. Looking at Shannahan’s record off of a BYE vs Divisional teams he is 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U. His decent ATS record in these situations has me worried about looking at this one +3.5 because McVay has done very well in division away games at 9-5 ATS.
So I’ll look towards the total that has been pushed up from 47 to a juiced 50. There are concerns with a 49ers defense that is banged up for sure. The Rams defense has performed well so far, but BOTH teams remain in the top ten in Defensive YPP (yards per play), which has me leaning to the under. McVay is 8-6 O/U in divisional away games but with an avg total of 47. Will wait until closer to game time in case total creeps up as majority of money and tickets are on the over, ok with a small play on a divisional game sitting at 50.
LAR/ SF UN 50 (-107) 1.07u
Welcome to Monday. Started off hot in college basketball last week before a tumble and crash on Thursday puts us at 4-7 to start the year. I realized I need to back off CBB a little bit later in the week as I finish my football prep. We went 197-174-5 in 2020/2021 in CBB so we’ll get it turned around.
Here’s two free plays to start your week off.
San Francisco (-20) vs Samford O/U 151
First off we take a look at The Dons of San Francisco taking on the Bulldogs of Samford in The City by the Bay. Samford has started 2-0 with easy wins over “powerhouses” Maryville TN and Springhill. San Francisco is also undefeated with wins over LIU, Prairie View A&M and Davidson. They were dominant in the first two matchups, but had to hold on after being up by as many as 14 in the second half vs Davidson.
Bucky McMillan’s Samford teams want to get out and run. The were 7th in the country last year in team possessions per game. They took 75 FG attempts vs Maryville and 67 vs Springhill. They are loaded with players who like to run coming in from transfer portal and also in a strange recruiting story landed the #60 recruit in the nation in Wesley Cardet Jr. who is averaging 14.5 ppg so far.
The Dons don’t play quite as fast, but feature one of best players out west in Jamaree Bouyea. He was all WCC first team last year averaging 17.3 PPG. This is a team that has gotten very good looks at the basket so far and are shooting 53.7%, but has also been hurt by turnovers as they are averaging just over 17 Per game to start the year. They will be more than happy to push the pace here and run with Samford.
The Total takes it all into account and is already on high side, but I like the over here in a game where I can see the Don’s getting over 90 and Samford pushing the pace enough to come along for the ride.
Gimme the over 151 for 1.5 Units.
UMKC vs Missouri (-11.5) O/U 128.5
UMKC will take on Mizzou tonight in Columbia. UMKC is coming off 2 losses to Big Ten opponents in Iowa and Minnesota and will face their third straight power 5 opponent to open the season. Missouri was able to win their season opener vs Central Michigan.
For UMKC the Fighting Kangaroos are picked to finish sixth in the Summit League this year. They are led by Josiah Allick who looked good against Minnesota putting up 21 points, but he struggled vs Iowa going only 1 of 4 from the floor. This is a team that wants to slow the pace down and try to grind out wins.
Missouri was missing 3 key players in their first game and are hoping all can be available tonight. Dajuan Gordon (suspension) should be a good role player for them coming over from Kansas St. where he averaged 9.1 ppg and 5.5 rpg last year. He is also a huge influence on defense. They had a 19 point lead against CMU before letting it get within 4. A nice finish put the final tally back at 12. Javon Pickett their only senior should emerge as a leader for Cuonzo Martin’s squad and they will need it to bring the younger players along. He put up 18 points in the opener.
After watching this UMKC team vs a Minnesota squad with basically no major conference talent I struggle to see how they keep this game anywhere close. Missouri isn’t Iowa, but they aren’t Minnesota either. I put this spread closer to -15 so I think there is value here at -11.5.
Mizzou -11.5 for 2 units
I had a pretty mediocre weekend overall but did finish 5-3 on my premium plays. Halfway through the month, I sit at 24-17, +5.97u. Tonight, I have a pair of premium plays for my members(one CBB, one NBA) in addition to this NBA free play. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Hawks 1H -6.5(-105) vs Magic–6:40 PM CT
Atlanta(5-9) has been a huge disappointment to start the season and is on the heels of a 6 game losing streak to start the month. However, the Hawks came back from a 4 game road trip and pounded the Bucks by 20 yesterday(with Giannis in the lineup). With that sign of life, I think we’re seeing a buy sign to hop back on the Hawks as they look to inch closer to .500. The Magic(3-10) are a bottom-dweller in the NBA and just had a 1-4 home stand; they lost those 4 games by an average of 15 PPG. The path is clear for the Hawks to carry over the momentum from yesterday’s win and take a double-digit lead into the half. I’m playing Hawks 1H instead of Hawks FG for the simple fact that this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back and the Magic are likely to try to take some positive out of this one in the second half.
Premium Plays(August 30th-present): 66-31-1, +49.05u
*CBB(1.5u): Marquette TT UNDER 69.5(-120) vs Illinois–6 PM CT
Illinois has what is widely regarded as the best defense in College Basketball entering this season. They enter a scary matchup against Marquette and first year HC Shaka Smart. Marquette fits Smart perfectly, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Golden Eagles find a way to keep this one close. However, that is unlikely to come via a high-scoring game. Shaka Smart teams are much more defensive-oriented, and he has little offensive firepower here in year 1 that warrants this high of a TT. This would be the equivalent of posting a TT of 24 against Georgia’s defense in CFB this season. I’ll take the Marquette TT Under as my best bet for tonight and trust what is considered the top defense in the country to come through for us.
*NBA(1u): Celtics -2.5(-110) @ Cavaliers–6:10 PM CT
The Celtics dropped one to the Cavs just 2 days ago after blowing a 12 point lead entering the 4th quarter. Boston held a 14 point halftime lead and yielded just 38 points through the first 24 minutes to Cleveland. Now, with a day of rest in between games, Boston has the perfect chance to make things right and avenge that gut-wrenching loss. The NBA regular season is all about motivation, and there’s plenty of it to go around in that Boston locker room tonight. I love playing on the team that loses the first game of a double-header against the same team to bounce back in Game 2, and that’s even more true when that team is superior. Cleveland(9-5) has had some success to start the season, but they have failed to score 100 points in their last 3 games and are clearly missing G Collin Sexton. I like the Celtics to bounce back tonight.
Monday night Rare 6* NFL With 100% Monday night Specific System headlines along with NCAAB Platinum Supreme Total and NBA. NCAAB Comp Play below
The NCAAB Comp Play for Monday is on Belmont -7 at 7:30 eastern. The Bruins bounced back from an opening game loss to Ohio with a Big blowout win over Evansville. Now they welcome in a 2-0 Furman team that upset Louisville as a 9 point dog in overtime despite shooting under 40%. The Palladins have failed to cover 6 straight playing off a spread win while Belmont has covered 7 of 8 as a home favorite and the last 5 on Mondays. Expect a higher scoring game here with Belmont getting the cover. A rare 6* From an Undefeated Monday night Specific NFL System dating to 1990 headlines tonight along with an NCAAB Platinum Supreme Total and another NBA Power System Play. See us on goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we start the week fast. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with the Belmont Bruins. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Wellllllllllllll what can I say about my performance in the NFL Sunday? I guess for now the best idea is to follow me and Steve’s Circa Picks; those went 4-0! At a closer look, there’s been some silly BS happening:
