Hey All! Steve and I are 29-15-1 in Circa thus far and we’re right there in the top level of competition! Follow our plays EVERY Sunday here at TheOddsBreakers! Here are our top 5 NFL plays submitted to the Circa contest for Week 10!
Good day yesterday in CFB! 5-2-1 overall, according to my count. Still flabbergasted that Valanciunas didn’t get over 20 points but whatever. The guy barely attempted to shoot the ball most of the game. I think they used him as bait. Either way, the past few days have been good to us and, knock on wood/cross your fingers, I have a feeling today will be really good for us in the NFL, too. Here are my two NBA plays today:
Week 11 CFB Premium Plays: 5-2, +3.8u
Premium Record: 66-30-1, +50.7u
*NFL(1.5u): Broncos -1.5(-110) vs Eagles–3:25 PM CT
I consistently rate the Eagles significantly lower than the oddsmakers do. This is a tough spot for Philly traveling to play on the road, much less in the mile high altitude. The Broncos curb stomped the Cowboys last week and enter this game off 2 straight wins. If Denver can make Dak Prescott look as silly as he did last week, there’s no telling what they’ll do to Jalen Hurts(who I’m very low on). People seem to forget that the expectations for Philly were astronomically low coming into the season; now you’re asking them to essentially go win this game on the road in unfavorable conditions? No chance. I’ll lay the point-and-a-half with Denver.
Last 2 Weeks NFL Sides/Totals/Props 16-9 +12.7U
Premium Sides/Totals: 55-52-1 -7.8U
Premium Teasers: 9-6 +5U
Premium Props: 12-7 up 4U
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Atlanta vs Dallas -8 O/U 55
This is a game where two teams are in two different situations. Dallas is coming off of a devastating loss to the Broncos while Atlanta is coming off of a huge win vs their division rival, the New Orleans Saints. Let the let down begin! Even without looking at this situation creatively, Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in EPA per play while Dallas ranks number 5 on offensive EPA per play even after that Broncos debacle. Dallas also has the advantage rushing the ball at 4.8 yards per attempt while Atlanta allows 4.4. The Cowboys also have a +.5 net yard per play advantage on a much harder schedule. My power ratings has Dallas a 11.5 favorite. When running the efficiency numbers, I have this game Dallas 34 to Atlanta 31. Take dem Boyz to rebound.
Dallas -8 – 3 stars
Detroit vs Pittsburgh -6.5 O/U 42.5
Well this is a game where both teams are also in much different spots here. Pittsburgh is on short rest after coming out of Ref-gate vs the Bears winning by 2 points. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they lost another top wide receiver in Chase Claypool for a while. Detroit hasn’t won a game yet this year but they have played some good teams close and they are coming off of their bye week. Now if you look at the numbers in a normal situation, the Steelers should be beating this Lions team easily, but the Steelers have a terrible offense now with injuries, and that is part of the reason that you see such a low total here. Both my power rating and my advanced metrics have this game around a 10 point spread but this is where the creative handicap comes in. Pittsburgh will be just happy with a win after losing guys to injury while the Lions should play out of their minds for Dan Campbell after the bye. Now for the last update, Big Ben is out meaning backup Mason Rudolph will be in and he is about a 3 point downgrade here. I think that Detroit has an opportunity to win this game outright and I am roaring like the Lions this week.
Detroit +6.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
6 Pt Teaser – Dallas to -2 with Cleveland to +8.5 – 2 stars
Sunday card has the AFC West Game of the Year on Sunday night along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Total and a 5* Blowout, there is also NBA and NCAAB. Comp Play below
The NFL Comp Play For Sunday is on the Detroit Lions plus the 6-7 points against Pittsburgh. The Lions have covered 8 of 9 with rest, 14 of 20 off a 10+ point home loss and the last 5 off a spread loss. Teams who started 0-4 or worse have rest off a loss where they scored 7 or less have covered over 80% long term. The Steelers are on a short week and are 0-8 ats as a favorite and have failed to cover the last 4 vs losing teams. They have a big game in LA against the Chargers next week and may be looking ahead here. Big card up led by the AFC West Game of the Year, Executive LEVEL TIER 1, Early 5* Blowout, TOP NBA and NCAAB and more. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the comp play. Take the Points with Detroit. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
What a day!! We have a loaded Saturday slate full of College Basketball and College Football all day and night!! We have started the CBB season 4-1 and are 28-12 in our last 40 CFB plays and 8-2 in our last 10 plays overall! I have a premium CBB play for you below. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
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The New Mexico Lobos and the Colorado Buffaloes meet today from the Coors Events Center. The New Mexico Lobos will be looking to build on their 99-92 win over FAU last time out. The Lobos shot 53% from the field, 52.2% from three and 73.9% from the foul line in the winning effort. The Colorado Buffaloes will be looking to build on a 94-90 overtime win over Montana State last time out. The Buffs shot 50.9% from the field, 47.4% from three and 73% from the foul line in the winning effort. According to Haslametrics, The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. New Mexico (210th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Colorado (290th) would rather maintain a slower pace. New Mexico head coach, Richard Pitino, was the Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach last season and averaged 72 points per game with a focus on defense. This New Mexico squad has less offensive talent, to say the least, than the Gophers team last year. My point is that 99 points scored in their first game may be an outlier. Colorado also only brought back 3 of their top 8 scorers from a year ago. I expect both offenses to regress closer to the mean in this game and keep it under the projected total. Take Under 148.9
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Week 10 is among us and it is time to get back to our winning week norms. Last week we had an onslaught of wild upsets and massive let downs. There will be ups and downs and we are now ready to make the climb back up. Let’s have a huge week 10!
Current Record: 82-51 +35.79 Units on the season
Browns @ Patriots Under 45
We have two stingy defenses squaring up in what I believe will set up for a low scoring affair. The last 3 games the Patriots have held opponents to a combined 615 yards in the air, including the Chargers with Justin Herbert. They have been vulnerable in their run defense allowing an average of 113.3 yards per game since week 2. However, Browns will now be without Nick Chubb and heavily relying on D’Ernest Johnson who we saw on TNF against the Broncos. This plays well into the hands of Bill Belichick and the chess match type of game we will see come Sunday.
Patriots are now every bit in the playoff hunt (and dare I say division title?). Their defense has continued to improve weekly. Now the Browns are going to ask their 3rd string running back to effectively pick up and protect Mayfield from Belichick’s defense schemes and hidden blitz packages. Good luck. It is no secret the Browns move the ball most effectively on the ground, but that just melts clock. Exactly what we want when taking the under. I do not foresee the quick scores, big strikes, and break out runs this week from either team.
On the other side of the ball the Patriots and Mac Jones are not exactly lighting up through the air. Last week in the Patriots dominate win Mac Jones went 12/18 122 1 td and 1 int. He is a game manager at this point in his Rookie career, and a good one at that. Both of these teams will be jockeying for field position, relying on their run games, and keeping the other side at bay with their stellar defensive play. Drives will tighten up and fizzle out in the redzone and what normally would be Td’s will turn to Fg’s in this one. Under 45.
Thanks for your support and good luck!
We went on one hell of a run last night, finishing 5-1 for +7.5 units to start our weekend! The NBA continues to treat us well but head down, humility first, and we keep grinding in a long season. Here’s a prop play that I LOVE tonight!
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NFL Circa Picks: 32-17-1
NFL: 64-61 (52%), +7.1 units
NBA: 43-34 (56%), +14.26 units
Jonas Valanciunas any line over 21.5 points or less (no line yet), 2 units – There’s just no way I couldn’t bet this prop in this spot for the Pelicans. After a great effort last night against Brooklyn, this young, injury-plagued Pelicans team goes into today on a back-to-back against the Grizzlies. Memphis suffered a bad loss last night at home against the surging Suns, who look to be back to form. The spot sucks for both of these clubs but at least the Pelicans get to stay home; Memphis will play its second away game in under 24 hours. Brandon Ingram is questionable, but even if he plays I don’t think it affects Valanciunas’ game all that much. The big man has been terrific with his new team. According to Basketball-Reference, the 7 footer is averaging 20 ppg and nearly 14 rebounds per game so far this season. Because of how injured the Pelicans are, they rely on Valanciunas for game in-game out production, and he delivers. Shooting 50% from the field and an amazing 52% from beyond the arc, Valanciunas will be overflowing with motivation and confidence tonight against his former team. The Grizzlies traded him to New Orleans earlier this year in a move that left many of us perplexed. Often the spark-plug for the Grizzlies when they needed it most, Jonas was an integral part of their playoff run last year. But with Ja Morant reaching new levels of superstardom, the franchise felt Valanciunas wasn’t as valuable for their future. I imagine the Lithuanian might disagree.
New coach Willie Green has his Pelicans fighting hard but they’re young and undermanned to start the regular season. I expect a huge game from Valanciunas tonight as he shoulders the load for his team once more– take the over on this prop and don’t look back!
Hell of a comeback night, my friends! 5-1 for +7.5 units. I added two more NFL plays below, in blue, and I’m OFF the Cardinals game. Cam may bring new energy to that team, even if he doesn’t play. And I still believe in their defense.
Saturday card has the PAC 12 Play o the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Going late, a 2x perfect 6* and the BIG 10 Game of the Month, there is also an NBA Top Play and College Hoops. Comp play below
The College Football Comp Play for Saturday is on NC. ST. at 7:00 eastern. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ats vs winning teams and have covered 8 straight after passing for more than 275 yards. They take on what could be a dejected Wake Forest team that had their perfect season ruined with a blown lead loss to North Carolina. Now they take on an even better NC. St team. The Deacons fit a late season database system that plays against teams that are off their initial loss of the year and they are 1-4 ats off a loss and are ranked 105th in the nation on defense. NC. St has the 6th ranked offense and 18th ranked defense. Look for NC.St to get the win.. On Saturday a Top Level Card is up and led by the PAC 12 Game of the Year, a Late Executive Level TIER 1, The BIG 10 Game of the Month, an Early 2x Perfect 6*, Early Season College Hoops system plays and NBA Top play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the Comp play. Play on NC. St Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
