Another OFF day. Anunoby scored 20…. some of you still won on that if you hit a lower prop, but LAC allowed 40 in the 1st QTR and 31 in the 4th, and they allowed it from a team playing on a back-to-back. This is not reminiscent of what we’ve seen from them on defense. No comment on the Ravens, gross. And the Pacers? That’s why I hate betting on their games. ONTO FUCKING FRIDAY. I’ll need more time for CFB picks so look for them later today.
NBA:
Knicks -1.5 * (the better team, good spot, but this line is sneaky)
Cavs -5 ** (The Cavs should be a significant matchup problem for a Pistons team who depends on scoring from fouls. The Cavs foul the least of any team in the NBA and they have a big-time advantage in the paint)
Celtics win (+110) – 1 unit to win 1.1 (Celtics are starting to come into their own. But they’re always scary to bet on. Proceed with caution– Bucks still banged up, Boston in a better spot, too)
Mavs -2.5 ** (this is a 2.5 star play, almost made it 3. This is the kind of game where the Mavericks win and win with ease. In their last game against SA, which they also won, it was only close because of bad 3 point shooting and turnovers. I expect the Mavs to clean up and get a win by more margin tonight in a good spot)
We got a nice 5 game slate tonight in the NHL. I breakdown 4 out of those 5 games below and offer picks for each. Check it out!
Game 1: Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs (7:00 PM)
Game 2: Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes (7:00 PM)
Game 3: Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres (7:00 PM)
Game 4: Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 PM)
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TSN, SN WEST
Calgary Flames: 7-3-3, 2nd Pacific (5-2 Away)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 8-5-1, 2nd Atlantic (6-2-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Calgary Flames
+130
+130
+1.5 (-190)
o5.5 (-125)
Toronto Maple Leafs
-150
-150
-1.5 (+165)
u5.5 (+105)
The Flames will travel to Toronto after losing in Montreal last night 4-2. This will be the second game in their six game road trip. Toronto will have had one day of rest after their 3-0 win in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
The Flames have had a great start to the season with a 7-3-3 record. However, they have struggled as of late dropping their last four out of five games. Even with their recent struggles, they still are tied for 6th in goals per game averaging 3.42. Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm lead the team in points with 14 each.
Calgary has shined on defense this year only allowing an average of 2.17 goals against. This number is correlates to their goals against above expected of -6.98. They have also done a great job of providing Markstom with support by limiting the number of high danger scoring chances. Speaking of Jacob Markstrom, he has very dependable this year in his ten starts with a +6.6 GSAx. He did start last night vs Montreal so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Daniel Vladar get the start tonight. Vladar has played in two games and has won both starts. However, he hasn’t necessarily played great in those games with a -1.4 GSAx.
Toronto played a much better game on Wednesday against Philadelphia after getting embarrassed by the Kings on Monday. The Leafs we’re on a roll, winning five straight before that loss to Los Angeles.
The Leafs have one of the best top six forwards in the NHL which includes Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Matthews. However, Tavares is questionable for tonight’s game as he’s recovering from a lower body injury. The loss of their Captain significantly impacts them as he has an xGoals of 3.87. Toronto relies heavily on their top two lines and without them, they struggle to generate scoring changes. They currently rank 26th in the NHL averaging 2.57 goals per game. The biggest issue for the Leafs has been their inability to convert as they rank last in the league with a -14.48 goals for above expected. This could be a major issue as they face a tough Calgary defense that limits scoring opportunities to begin with.
Shockingly enough, the Leafs defense has been better than their offense. They rank 9th in goals allowed per game with 2.64. Toronto currently has a -4.82 goals against above expected which is mostly due to the play of Jack Campbell. Campbell had a breakout year last season for the Leafs with a +8.4 GSAx and has continued that strong play this year with a +8.5 GSAx. With the Leafs having a day off, he’s expected to start tonight.
SIDE: CALGARY FLAMES +1 (-135), SPRINKLE CALGARY ML (+130)
PLAYER PROP TOR:
WILLIAM NYLANDER TO SCORE (+170)
William Nylander has been great as of late scoring four times in the last five games. With Tavares out, it has hurts Marners production. Nylander has Matthews centering him on the first line and is on the first Power Play unit. The Flames also allow the fifth most shots in the NHL.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: BSSO, NBCS-PHI
Philadelphia Flyers: 6-3-2, 6th Metropolitan (3-1-1 Away)
The Flyers travel to Carolina after losing 3-0 to Toronto on Wednesday night. They were coming off three days a rest and we’re in a tough spot facing a vengeful Toronto team. Prior to that game, they had won three straight knocking off Washington, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. Carolina has been the best team in the NHL playing great in all aspects. They’ve gone through a gantlet the past few games facing Florida and Tampa Bay. However, they’ve had two days rest before they take on Philly.
The Flyers will begin a two game road trip tonight as they face Carolina tonight and Dallas tomorrow. After a tough 2020-21 season the Flyers have made improvements, specifically on defense. They rank 5th in goals allowed per game with 2.45 and have a -10.06 goals against above expected. Carter Hart has contributed to that stat line with a +6.4 GSAx through his first eight starts this season. He has been confirmed for tonight which should help Philly as they face one of the best offenses in the NHL.
Philadelphia’s offense hasn’t been anything to write home about this year. They’re tied for 16th in goals per game with 2.91. Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux lead the team with 12 points through 11 games. In their last five games they are only averaging one goal per game which won’t be enough to keep up with Carolina. Kevin Hayes is still out for a few weeks and is another key offensive component that they will want back as soon as possible. A guy that needs to step up for them is James van Riemsdyk who led the team in points last year but, only has five through the first eleven this year.
The Carolina Hurricanes are playing some great hockey. The Canes currently rank 3rd in the NHL in goals per game with 3.73. They also rank 2nd in goals above expected with a +2.98. Andrei Svechnikov has led the charge offensively for the Hurricanes with 15 points in eleven games. Carolina has been dominating opponents defenses besides their lone loss to Florida. They face a much improved Philadelphia defense that will try to take a page out of the Panthers playbook to slow them down.
On defense, the Hurricanes have been even better! They lead the NHL in goals allowed per game with 1.91 and are 4th in shots allowed. However, in their last few games the Hurricanes have been allowing more than that average. Carolina ranks third in goals against above expected, only behind the Kings and Flyers. The Hurricanes Penalty Kill ranks within the top 10 and has been much needed as Carolina is one the least disciplined teams in terms of penalty minutes. Frederick Anderson is the second best goalie in the league in terms of GSAx (+10.4) and is expected to start.
SIDE: CAROLINA HURRICANES (-170)
Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: SN1, MSG
Edmonton Oilers: 10-2-0, 1st Pacific (4-1 Away)
Buffalo Sabres: 5-5-2, 6th Atlantic (4-1-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
-170
-170
-1.5 (+155)
o6.0 (+100)
Buffalo Sabres
+150
+150
+1.5 (-175)
u6.0 (-120)
The Oilers travel to Buffalo for their third away game in the middle of their five game road stint. Last night, the Oilers upset the Bruins 5-3 after losing to Detroit on Tuesday. Buffalo on the other hand played their last game on Monday and will have had some time to recover. The Sabres will look to stop their five game losing streak against the Oilers who are in a tough spot.
Edmonton has been one of the best, if not the best team in the NHL this year. Their offense is red hot and leads the league in goals per game with an average of 4.18. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the league in points with 23 a piece. McDavid continued his point-streak last night tallying at least a point in every game this season. Another highlight for the Oilers has been their Power Play which ranks 1st.
On defense they have haven’t been as great as their offense but, have been middle of the road. They currently rank 18th in goals allowed per game with 2.91. However, their Penalty Kill has been great killing off penalties at a rate of 87.1% (6th). Last night Mikko Koskienen started in net, who has been good this season with a +1.9 GSAx. It’s expected that Stuart Skinner will get the start vs Buffalo. He’s only played in one game this year where he gave up three goals in a loss to Detroit but had a +2.7 GSAx.
Buffalo had a hot start to the season but, has regressed tremendously losing five straight. In the first few games they looked much more energetic and have failed to bring that same energy as of late.
The Sabres are a very young team so not much is to be expected. Despite their struggles they still rank 15th in goals per game with 2.92. The loss of Victor Olofsson certainly hurt them as had 9 points through their first 8 games. He was downgraded to doubtful so it’s unlikely we’ll see him here. Their powerplay ranks 8th with a 25% conversion rate but, has been below average as of late converting on just 2 of their last 12 man advantages.
On defense they continue to struggle as well allowing an average of 3 goals per game. Just like their Power Play, their Penalty Kill has been struggling as of late. We’re still unsure of the starter as Craig Anderson may return from an upper body injury but, as of now it looks like Dustin Tokarski will get the start. Neither goalie has been that much better than the other as Anderson has a -1.4 GSAx, and Tokarski has a -0.8 GSAx through six starts a piece.
TOTAL: OVER 6.0 (+100)
PLAYER PROP EDM:
LEON DRAISAITL TO SCORE (+100)
CONNOR MCDAVID TO SCORE (+100)
In the Past 5 Games either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid have scored. Buffalo currently ranks 21st in goals allowed per game, and 19th in shots on goals allowed. While Buffalo’s PK is 5th, they haven’t been great as of late and face these two on Power Play 1.
PLAYER PROP BUF:
TAGE THOMPSON TO SCORE (+300)
Tage Thompson has scored in two of three games. With Olofsson out, Thompson has been forced into a larger role. He moved to center under Don Granato and has played much better than last year. He faces an EDM team that allows the 9th most shots on goal. Thompson is also on the Sabres first Power Play unit.
Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: BSOH, NBCS-DC
Washington Capitals: 7-2-4, 2nd Metropolitan (3-1-1 Away)
Columbus Blue Jackets: 7-3-0, 5th Metropolitan (5-1-0 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Washington Capitals
-140
-140
-1.5 (+180)
o5.5 (-110)
Columbus Blue Jackets
+120
+120
+1.5 (-220)
u5.5 (-110)
The Washington Capitals take on Columbus after a 2-0 win in Detroit last night. The Caps had dropped three straight before winning against Buffalo on Monday and Detroit on Thursday. Columbus on the other hand is coming off five days of rest and will look to continue their three game win streak.
Washington has had one of the best offenses in the League this year led by none other than Alex Ovechkin. He currently has the third most points in the NHL with 21 only behind Draisaitl and McDavid (see above). The Caps are 5th in goals per game with 3.5 and lead the league in goals for above expected wit +5.6. Even with how well Washington’s offense has played, they are still without T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom, who led the team in points last season. Another name that flies under the radar is Anthony Mantha, who’s also currently out but, has had a solid start to the season.
The Capitals defense has been top 10 this season in goals allowed per game with 2.67. A main point of strength for Washington has been their ability to limit shots. They’ve also allowed the lowest amount of high danger shots against. Vitek Vanecek has been the starter for the Caps most of the year but is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, Ilya Samsonov will get the start. Samsonov has played in four games this year and hasn’t played all that great. He has a deceiving 3-0-1 record, with a .893 SV% and -2.3 GSAx.
Columbus has been solid as of late winning five of their last seven with their only losses coming to the Rangers and Hurricanes. They have the 11th most goals per game with an average of 3.1. Oliver Bjorkstrand leads the team with 13 points followed by Laine and Voracek. Laine will be out for tonight’s game as he’s still recovering from an oblique injury. The Blue Jackets have a -0.87 goals above expected which makes sense given their GPG. However, Columbus has a great shooting percentage which has been much needed given their limited shots on goal. This stat does worry me a bit because they will inevitably regress and need to generate more scoring opportunities to stay competitive.
The Blue Jackets haven’t been great on defense allowing the most shots against per game in the NHL. Despite this, they rank 14th in goals allowed per game with 2.8. The good news for the Blue Jackets is that they do have a -5.9 goals against above expected. However, this number is a direct factor to the play of their goalies . Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo have split time 60/40 but have both played very well to start the season. Merzlikins has a +6.6 GSAx and Korpisalo has a +2.5 GSAx. The starter has yet to be named but Merzlikins is expected to get the nod.
SIDE: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (+120)
TOTAL: OVER 5.5 (-110)
PLAYER PROP CBJ:
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND TO SCORE (+250)
BOONE JENNER TO SCORE (+275)
Bjorkstrand has scored in three of his last five games. With Laine out, Bjorkstrand has stepped up and been productive. He is also plays on the first power play unit. Washington gives up the 2nd most shots on goal per game and ranks 21st in Penalty Kill %. Boone Jenner at +275 has also scored in two of the last three. Jenner plays with Bjorkstrand on the second line and on the first Power Play unit.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
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This is a bad spot for Miami. The Heat played an OT game with the Lakers last night and now have to come back the very next night and play a superior and rested Clippers bunch. Jimmy Butler exited last night’s game and likely will be out again tonight; in his place, Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro each played at least 42 minutes last night. You also have to factor in the fact that, given some of the personalities in the Heat locker room, those guys were out living it up in LA last night. While there are flaws with the Clippers, they are in the midst of a 5 game winning streak and seem to be gelling nicely early in the season. Also, this will be their 3rd game of a 6-game home stretch, meaning they have a major scheduling/rest advantage entering this matchup. I think we see the Heat taper off in the second half given the amount of minutes they played last night. This should be competitive for awhile, but ultimately, I like the Clippers to pull away.
*NFL(1u): Ravens/Dolphins UNDER 46.5(-110)–7:20 PM CT
The Ravens defense has underperformed at times this season, but this is the perfect “get right” spot. The Dolphins have zero ability to establish the running game; against the Texans last week, Myles Gaskin amassed just 34 yards on 20 carries. Whether it be Tua or Jacoby Brissett, I don’t think either QB is going to be able to beat the Ravens through the air. That said, I expect Brian Flores(a defensive minded HC) to have his defense ready to roll tonight. The Dolphins have allowed just 35 points over their last 2 games and should have a pretty good idea of what the Ravens want to do. The Ravens RB situation is not ideal, and Lamar Jackson is still prone to some inconsistency. If the Ravens do come out hot, there doesn’t seem to be much incentive in extending this game more than necessary. The total has been steamed down a bit from the opener at 48, but even so, I see value on this Under tonight.
Thursday night 100% NFL Game Of the Month with an Undefeated Thursday specific System. There is also a Rare 6* Total in College hoops and Soccer. NHL Comp Play below.
The NHL Comp Play is on the Over 5.5 goals in the Minnesota at Vegas game at 10:05 eastern. Minnesota has gone over in 7 of 8 with no rest and 4 of 5 vs a winning team. They are 7th in the league in scoring and first in Shots on goal per game. That plays right into the Vegas defense which is ranked 31st in Shots allowed and 24th in overall defense. The Knights are 4 of 4 over as a favorite, 15 of 20 on Thursdays and 3 of 4 over in a 4 game in 6 night scenario. Look for this game to push over the total. On Thursday we have a Rare 6* College Hoops total and the Thursday night NFL Game Of The Month from a 100% Thursday Specific System and a Rare 6* College Hoops total. Wednesday card sweeps. See us on goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the NHL Comp Play. Go with the Over 5.5 goals in the Minnesota vs Vegas game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
TNF match up in South Beach, where I expect to see an ELECTRIC performance from Lamar Jackson. Currently 1-1 with our single slate DFS articles after our MVP Travis Kelce was a complete ghost during our MNF slate a week ago. There will be no apparition in tonight’s slate as we dominate our DFS Slate!
Tonight’s slate will have a ton and I mean a TON of usage with Lamar Jackson as MVP, and for good reason. He is the Ravens playmaker, the best player on the field, and puts up the big numbers week to week. For tonight’s line up I recommend making at minimum two line ups for each slate you enter. For example, if you have a line up with Lamar and Hollywood Brown, rotate them both as MVP. If we are expecting a big night from Lamar, there is a good chance there could be one in store for a designated receiver we decide as well. Let’s see how it plays out:
(per Fanduel, adjust accordingly for your platform)
MVP: Lamar Jackson @ $17,500. No surprise here. Dude is a play maker not only on the ground this year, but getting it done through the air. There will be a high usage at MVP tonight, my guess over 60%. I can not get away from the narrative of him returning an hour South of his hometown and putting on an absolute show in primetime football. Due to taking a high usage/high percentage player, we have to find the low volume usage, with upside value else where.
First two flex spots: Two Ravens players I like in tonight’s game is Hollywood Brown and Devonta Freeman. Hollywood Brown @ $13,500. I am playing the Florida to Florida connection in this primetime game. Both players will want to show out for their home state and will do so in electric fashion. Devonta Freeman @ $10,500. Freeman has emerged as the Ravens lead touchdown back, and the upside is he’s getting the targets out of the backfield as well. I am looking for the Ravens to build a quick lead with the likes of Jackson and Brown together and Freeman putting the Dolphins away down the stretch.
Last two flex spots: Most likely Dolphins will be playing from behind and with Qb status up in the air until kick off I do not like the price tag of either Brissett nor Tua. I am looking for the Dolphins to be forced into a pass heavy offense to play catch up. Bringing the last two spots to Jaylen Waddle and Mack Hollins. Jaylen Waddle @ $12,000. He is the Dolphins clear number 1 and is getting high volume targets from either Qb. Mack Hollins @ $6500. This is our “value play” that could set us apart from the field having the high usage in MVP in Lamar. Dolphins are rather thin at Wr and Hollins has gotten volume from both Qbs in a couple of games. He has the speed on the outside that is capable of a big “homerun” play.
Lets bounce back this week! Good luck everyone and thank you for your support!
Can’t hit the panic button after a weird night in the NBA. Onto the next! Could add more NFL picks but I want to get these out now. Stay tuned. CFB picks are incoming tomorrow!
NBA Today:
OG Anunoby over 21 points (+108, 1 unit to win 1.08 – Siakam is out for this game, which should free up more room for OG to work. He’s been really good so far this season)
Jazz -9 * (Only 1 unit since the Pacers are completely insane and it’s hard to know what to expect, but the Jazz, at home, healthy, and in a good spot when Indiana is off a back to back? Hard to not bet)
Heat TT under 106 ** (LAC is top 10 in so many different defensive categories and now the Heat are without Jimmy B on a back to back)
Time captioned below! We have such a great show for you today. Kiev O’Neil is going solo because he has a lot of info to give you that he has worked on for the last few weeks! First, Kiev talks about the fact that sports are not premeditatedly rigged yet we do have to deal with officiating variance that could help the square yet hurt the more knowledgeable sports bettor. Then, Kiev gives us his BIG 10 basketball preview with teams ranked 1st – 14th! Which teams have improved, which teams will regress, and which teams have changed their pace of play? Next, Kiev talks some college football betting angles for week 11 and gets right into some big games, and some FREE PLAYS! After that, Kiev breaks down the full slate of NFL games from an ATS perspective with some information, leans and more picks and plays. Next, we give out our REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 5-4 so far for the NFL 2021 season as well as a UFC fight night free play. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
0 – 10:05 – Intro and officiating variance
10:05 – 43:05 – Big 10 College Basketball Preview
43:05 – 56:02 – College Football Week 11
56:02 – 1:20:45 – NFL Week 10 and Teaser
1:20:45 – 1:25:24 – UFC Fight Night
125:24 – 1:27:45 – The Sharp Side of The Force
NFL: Atlanta vs Dallas – Cleveland vs New England and more!
NCAA: Minnesota vs Iowa – Miami vs Florida State – and more!
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