UFC is Kiev O’Neil’s best sport! To get his premium and exotic plays Click Here!
UFC 267 will be an amazing event broadcasted not on pay per view but on ESPN+ Check it out!
Here are some plays:
Parlay – Jan Blachowicz -300/Petr Yan -210 – -105 – 2 star premium
Jan Blachowicz at 28 years old is fighting 42 year old Glover Teixeira in this main event and Glover isn’t even the top contender here in my opinion. Jan should have the speed, lungs and striking advantage here. Petr Yan would be the champion in the Bamtam weight division if he didn’t give an illegal knee to Aljamain Sterling who is now in hiding. Corey Sandhagen is a great opponent but he isn’t a good match for Yan’s ground game and bullish mentality. Cory is more of a finesse fighter who can lose by points due to his weaker ground game and overall strength. I can see some big motivation here for Yan to get his title here.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Jingliang Li +400
Khamzat is the biggest hyped up and coming fighter in the welterweight division. Say what you want about Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns but Khamzat is the best contender right now for Kamaru Usman. Jinliang Li isn’t no slouch himself at 18-6 winning 4 out of his last 5 fights but even at 4.52 significant strikes per minute, he is no match for Khamzat who averages a massive 9 respectively at 80% accuracy. I think Khamzat finishes this thing early and instead of laying -550, there are better ways of approaching this fight. Enjoy the fights today. They start early! Best of luck!
Khamzat Chimaev wins inside the distance -175 – 2 stars
Khamzat Chimaev wins in Round 1 – +170 – 1 star premium
Early game that has the Falcons visiting the Bulls in what has been a disappointing season for both teams. Both have shown flashes with BGST upsetting Minnesota earlier this season and BUFF with a couple of narrow defeats when they’ve faced better competition in CCAR and WMICH. That being said, Bowling Green’s season has turned for the worst since the win against MINN, with a really bad loss at home to Akron, 35-20.
There is concern for Buffalo covering as it seems they don’t get up for lesser competiton, almost losing against Ohio. What I like about this game is the matchup. The Bulls are poor vs the run, 110th, but the Falcons come in with the 105th ranked Rushing offense. BGST’s pass defense is actually pretty good, but they have trouble stopping the run, as they are 127th Rush DEF YPG. More good news for Buffalo who wants to run, 31st Rush OFF YPG. Bowling Green wants to pass and Buffalo has fared well against teams who want to throw (held WMICH to 24 points) but are 83rd v the pass. Teams that run tend to wear their opponents down as the games go along, but with BGST’s ability to pass (65th), I worry about a back door cover.
So I’m looking towards the BUFF 1H -7 (-120) in this one. Bowling Green has been down by at least 7 in 3 of their L4 in the 1H, and would be 4 out of L4 but they lost that 1H by 6. Those were all against MAC competition and they ended up covering 2 of those 4 for the whole game. 87% of the money on BUFF for this one, but also 84% of the the tickets. I’m taking Buffalo to cover the 1H in this one.
BUF 1H -7 (-120) 1.2u
We have 6 NCAAF plays loaded up for premium clients and we have been hitting CFB 14-5 in our last 19 plays I have 2 premium plays below and have 4 more for premium members. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays on Saturday!!
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The #9 Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Madison to battle with their Big Ten rival Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randal Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Hawkeyes come in off a loss to Purdue two weeks ago 24-7 and the Badgers are 4-3 after taking care of that same Boilermakers squad last week by a score of 30-13 and are winners of their last 3. Iowa comes in averaging 311 yards per game, 4.6 yards per play and 28 points per game while Wisconsin is putting up 364 yards per game, 5.2 yards per play and 21.1 points per game. Those are the offensive stats, however this should be a defensive ball game with the Hawkeyes limiting opposing offenses to 14.6 points per game after averaging 26.2 PPG and the Badgers are doing a bit of the same limiting the opposition to 18.4 points per game from offenses averaging 29 PPG. These are two of the slowest paced teams in the nation with Iowa ranking 106th in tempo and Wisconsin ranking 119th in the land. They both also run the ball at a high clip with the Hawkeyes rushing 55.5% (64th in nation) while the Badgers are rushing 66.8% (8th in country) of the time and neither team has much big play ability with Iowa ranking 110th in the nation in plays of 20 yards or more and Wisconsin even worse at 127th in the nation and to make things harder for the offenses, the defenses rank 2nd and 5th in giving up plays over 20 yards. Points will be hard to come by and they only way this goes above the total is if there are multiple defensive touchdowns. The edge in this game will be Wisconsin’s running game averaging 4.7 yards per rush on the ground and should open some eyes on that Hawkeyes front. Take Wisconsin – 3 and Under 37
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
We are 72-57-2 in College Football this year up 26U! To become a member, please Click Here!
Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 50
I have been looking forward to this game for a long time now and it is nice to see both teams facing off at 7-0. Who would have thought? You know the wolverines are good when people are not chirping about how bad Jim Harbaugh is this year. I have to think that some of his adversaries are waiting for that big Ohio State game. At the same time, Michigan State under coach Mel Tucker has been a huge surprise this year and I am still baffled on how good of a head coach he has become on such a short duration of time. Now even with Michigan’s great success, does this warrant them being a 4.5 point road favorite against their little bro? Not likely by that much. Especially when you look at the Metrics. Both team are great at running the ball at about 5.4 yards per rush but Michigan State defends the rush a bit better allowing only 3.27 yards per rush to Michigan’s 3.56. Michigan State has the edge passing the ball at 9.2 yards per attempt to Michigan’s 8.0 but the Wolverines have the advantage defending the pass ranking 33rd in success rate to Sparty’s 65th. Michigan State also has the better sack rate that Michigan ranking 29th to Michigan’s 91st. Michigan however has the better offensive line ranking number 2 in opponent stuff rate and they also have a better EPA margin ranking 12th over Michigan State’s 22nd. I know I through a lot at you here but in summary you should be able to tell that this spread should not be past the key number of 3. My power ratings have Michigan winning this game by 2 points.
Michigan State +4 – 3 stars and sprinkle
Texas vs Baylor -2.5 O/U 61.5
This line is kinda like the Clemson vs Pittsburgh line last week except that Texas doesn’t have the recent history that Clemson has. Without looking at the numbers, one would think that this is an offense vs defense game but Baylor actually shows better in both the rushing and passing categories at 6.1 rushing yards per attempt to Texas’s 5.6, and Baylor averages 9.1 yards per pass to Texas’s 9. It’s not even close on defense and Baylor ranks 20th in EPA margin to Texas ranking 77th. Baylor has a net 1.6 yard per play advantage over the Long horns as well. Now Texas has the tougher strength of schedule but that is due to mainly the Arkansas and Oklahoma matchups that haven’t aged all that well. Who has Texas beaten? Louisiana? TCU? Baylor has wins vs Iowa State, BYU, and West Virginia which I think is better. Baylor is the play.
Baylor -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Penn State vs Ohio State -19 O/U 61
This is a massive spread for the Big 10. Penn State very well might be the second best team in this conference and they are 18.5 point dogs? That’s brutal. The question for me is what would this spread look like before last week’s games? Well I’ll tell you. It was Ohio State -11.5. This is a massive 7 point adjustment and I think it is too much. Now Ohio State certainly has the metrics and they also have a massive 2.4 net yard per play advantage but strength of schedule I think plays a massive role here. Penn State had to play Wisconsin, Iowa, a pretty good Auburn team while Ohio State’s toughest game was a home loss vs Oregon and maybe Minnesota ranks 2nd. I think if there is an advantage for Penn State, it is on the defensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lions rank 33rd in stuff rate while Ohio State ranks 87th. Penn State also ranks 3rd in passing play success rate to Ohio State ranking 73rd. This means that Sean Clifford will have to move the ball to his big receivers through the air. I think that he has that in him enough to at least cover this thing. My Power number is Ohio State -14.75 giving them 4 points for home field advantage. I will take Penn State first half as usual and Ohio State 2nd half but I also lean to the under.
Penn State 1st half +10.5 – 1.5 star premium and Ohio State 2nd half (only if they are winning by 10 or less) – 1.5 stars.
When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have a pair for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been good. 69-63 record thus far. +11.2 Units. 4-1 on Free Late night plays.
My first play features the Washington Huskies visiting the Stanford Cardinal. (Stanford is favored by 2.5, O/U 47.5) Both teams come into this game at 3-4 having both had a very up and down topsy-turvy season.
Washington has been plagued by an absolutely inept offense. Currently they are averaging 22.1 points per game and that is inflated by a 52 point showing vs Arkansas State. They were held to 7 points in the opener against FCS Montana. The Arkansas State game is also the only game in which they have put up more than 327 Yards. They did get something going in the 2nd half against Arizona last week going on three long scoring drives and putting up over 225 Yards. That’s Arizona however, we will see what happens this week.
What Washington does have going for them is a very strong passing defense. They gave up over 300 passing yards to Cal, but seem to have righted the ship since then. UCLA, OSU and AZ all ran the ball well against Washington, but struggled to push the ball downfield through the air.
That could pose a problem for Stanford’s offense as they rank 121st rushing the ball at 94.9 yards per game. Their main focus however has been Tanner Mckee throwing the ball. He’s completing passes at a 64.7% clip with 14 TD to 3 INT, and has a nice 150.6 QBRat. Strength vs Strength when Stanford has the ball.
Stanford’s D has hardly been a thing of beauty, but I like this match-up for them. They’ve also been weakest against the run, and Washington isn’t much better of a rushing team at 119 yards per game. Wazzou hung some passing yards on them last week, but that has really been it.
For me the bottom line here is Washington is going to struggle moving the ball. The first half effort last week against Arizona is more of what the norm has been. If Stanford can convert on third downs I don’t see this one being as close as the spread. Only concern is so far 88% of the bets and 97% of the money is on Stanford and it’s only moved from 2 to 2.5 at most books. I am sticking to my guns however as my power rankings have this as Stanford -4.5 so I am happy to lay the 2.5 here. Stanford -2.5, 2.5 Units
The Second free play is San Diego State hosting Fresno State (SDSU -1, O/U 44.5) Fresno comes in at 6-2 and SDSU is a perfect 7-0. They also cashed my Over 6.5 Wins futures bet on them last week super early.
This battle will be for First place in the West Division of the Mountain West. It features one of the best passing attacks in the country with Jake Haener who is averaging 322.8 YPG with 22 TDs and 6 INT. Currently the rushing attack is 86th in the country, but they’ve thrown the ball so well they have not had to rely on it much. They did struggle against Wyoming throwing the ball, and Wyoming does have an elite secondary similar to what SDSU is going to show him. In that Wyoming game he only threw for 96 yards .
Fresno’s defense has also been solid. In the Wyoming game where the offense struggled they shutout the Cowboys and carried the team to victory. They have been particularly good against the run holding teams to 128.1 YPG and 3.7 YPA. This will be their toughest test vs the run since Oregon, and they did give up some yards to UNLV as well on the ground.
For SDSU on offense it is all about ball control and wearing down your opponent. They rush on 67.6% of their plays for over 192 YPG. They are also 4th in rushing explosiveness. SDSU was efficient last week in the air going 11 for 13 for 72 yards. If they get too far behind catching back up through the passing game could be an issue as consistency has not been there for them.
The SDSU defense is the biggest key to their success. They are top 10 vs both the run and the pass so far this year, albiet outside of Utah they haven’t really played any explosive offenses. This will be their biggest test of the year. With Fresno rarely rushing they will rely on what was the question mark at the start of the year their secondary. They’ve been up to the task so far allowing only 5.2 YPA passing. The front seven is the SDSU strength and with Fresno dropping back most of the time they will be pinning their ears back and getting after the QB. They are ranked 13th in the nation in sacks so Haener might not be as comfortable behind center as he would like.
I’ve been riding the SDSU defense most of the year. This team was my first futures bet for that reason, and I really think this unit is the best on the field, and will lead them to victory. I’ve got this at SDSU -5.5, so this is one of my biggest personal spread differences so far this year. SDSU -1, 3 Units
Cheers guys! I’m very excited for this weekend! We have 9 football plays loaded up for premium clients and we have been hitting CFB 14-5 in our last 19 plays and 22-11 in our last 33 overall. BUT, the World Series is on tonight and I have a free premium for everyone with some plus money props that have a good chance in cashing, in my opinion. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The World Series continues tonight in Atlanta at Truist Park. The series is now tied 1-1 and this will be the first game being played in the ATL with the first two taking place in Houston. The Braves will send out righty Ian Anderson to start game 3. He has been good this postseason pitching 12 innings while striking out 12 and giving up 3 runs including 1 homerun. However, he hasn’t lasted past the 4th inning in his last 2 starts against another good offense in the Dodgers. Anderson tends to struggle in the 1st inning and calms down as the game goes on and in the 2nd half of the season posted a 3.62 ERA but more than doubled his homerun rate (1.95 HR/9) and earned a 5.67 FIP. He also struggles versus lefties so look for Alvarez, Brantley and Tucker to have a big game tonight. The Astros will look to rookie right-hander Luis Garcia to take the mound after his near no-hitter against the Red Sox in his last time out. Before that start, he gave up 10 runs in 3.2 innings in his first two starts of the postseason. On the road this season, he posted a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 4.41 xFIP in 76.1 innings pitched and, similar to Anderson, he struggles against lefties. There is not enough consistency to trust Garcia here and will fade the recency bias. These teams have been hitting and both ranked in the top 10 of the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Both teams are also looking at bullpen days tomorrow so they will try to limit the amount of relievers for tonight’s game. Additionally, Tom Hallion will be behind the plate and his games are averaging 8.8 runs per game. I expect the offenses to show up again tonight. Take Over 8.5
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Plus Money Props worth a look
Joc Peterson +1.5 total bases +130
Kyle Tucker +1.5 TB +110
Michael Brantley +1.5 TB +110
Yordan Alverez +1.5 TB +110
Eddie Rosario HR +300
Freddie Freeman HR +425
Joc Peterson HR +360
Kyle Tucker HR +350
Yordan Alvarez HR +320
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
In addition to these 6 free plays, I’ve got 6 CFB plays posted for my premium members. A win on ECU -10 last night pushed my 2021 CFB record to 61-42-1(59%), +26.36u. My premium plays are currently hitting at a 67% clip(46-22-1) and have netted my members +36.6u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Michigan State +4(-110) vs Michigan–Sat. 11 AM CT
This line implies that Michigan is nearly a full touchdown better than Michigan State on a neutral field, and I just blatantly disagree with that. Michigan State’s offense features not only a Heisman-caliber RB in Kenneth Walker III, but also an explosive passing game; they have 2 WR’s who have eclipsed the 500 yard mark already, and each has caught 5 or more TD’s. Michigan’s defense presents a tough matchup to the Spartans, including an NFL caliber threat off the edge and a veteran-laden secondary. However, I trust QB Payton Thorne to do just enough through the air to make Michigan respect the pass, which should open up some running room for Walker. I’m really not a fan of Michigan’s offense because they have shown little trust in QB Cade McNamara’s abilities to win the game through the air. The Michigan State run defense has been solid all season, so I doubt the Wolverines are going to be able to feature a one-dimensional running attack like they have against weaker competition for much of this season. However, because Michigan has had trouble replacing the absence of WR Ronnie Bell, I’m not no sure they would even have success in the downfield passing game and be able to exploit Michigan State’s supposed weakness in the secondary. I’m willing to bet this ends in a field goal game in either direction, so I’ll take the 4 points with the home team who has a good chance of winning this outright.
*CFB(1u): Washington State/Arizona State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2 PM CT
Arizona State HC Herm Edwards operates his Sun Devils team like an NFL organization; that is shown in how he has crafted his coaching staff but more importantly the style in which the Sun Devils play. Arizona State runs just 64.3 plays/game(117th in CFB) and is in no rush to go up-tempo. The Sun Devils can create explosive plays through play action after they’ve established the run, but they won’t have an easy time doing so against what is a sneakily good Washington State defense. The Cougars yielded just 21 points to BYU last week and are led by a LB group that should be able to hold the Sun Devils’ run game in check. That being said, I’m a big fan of what Arizona State does defensively; they’re led by former NFL LB and Super Bowl champion Antonio Pierce, who has this group allowing less than 20 PPG this season. Washington State is now in Week 2 without HC Nick Rolovich, who brought over his vaunted offensive system from Hawaii. The Cougars put up just 19 points against BYU last week, and I expect them to have a tough time matching that number tomorrow. 53 is a tick too high for my liking, so in a game where possessions should be limited on both sides, I’ll take a crack at the Under.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana Monroe +27.5(-115) @ App State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
What am I missing here? While Louisiana Monroe had low expectations entering the season, they now sit at 4-3 after back-to-back outright wins against Liberty and South Alabama. Sure, each of those games was played at home, but you’re going to have a tough time convincing me that this line has appropriately adjusted for the Warhawks’ recent success. Ever since ULM switched to Chandler Rogers as its primary QB, things have turned around in a major way. Appalachian State is a good team, but given their style of play, they shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. QB Chase Brice has a history of turnover issues, and the Mountaineers use much more of a ground-first attack rather than throwing the ball all over the yard. I think the market has failed to adjust to the Warhawks’ turnaround, so let’s make ‘em pay for it.
*CFB(1u): North Carolina/Notre Dame UNDER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
North Carolina came into the season with sky-high expectations, particularly for QB Sam Howell and the offense. Because of poor OL play, those expectations have been anything but met. Howell has been sacked a whopping 27 times this season(almost 4 sacks/game), which has thrown off Howell’s rhythm as a passer(61% completion this season vs 69% completion in 2020). RB Ty Chandler has also been held in check against UNC’s tougher competition; combined with their other struggles, this is an untrustable offense. UNC is somewhat hit-or-miss on defense, but I think they’ll buck up in this crucial game in South Bend. Notre Dame has seemingly turned a corner offensively, but they have had a tough time getting RB Kyren Williams consistent running room. QB Jack Coan is a solid QB, but he’s much more of a game manager than he is a guy that’s going to chuck it all over the yard. This total would be appropriate if UNC had met their preseason expectations offensively, but that simply hasn’t been the case. Even when UNC was effective offensively last season, they only managed to put up 17 on this Notre Dame defense. I’ll play Under in this matchup.
*CFB(1u): BYU TT UNDER 33(-120) vs Virginia–Sat. 9:15 PM CT
Virginia’s defense doesn’t present an overly difficult matchup, but BYU’s offense is getting far too much love with this posted total. The Cougars are scoring just 26 PPG this year and have relied much more on their defense to get to 6-2 through 8 games. They have only eclipsed this 33 point barrier twice this season; once against lowly South Florida(35 points), and another time against Utah State(34 points). While the Cavs defense tends to struggle against dynamic offenses, they have performed quite nicely against more stagnant, pro style offenses such as Illinois and Duke. BYU QB Jaren Hall is still a first-year starter, and his RB’s are not home-run threats. The Cougars also run just 65.4 plays/game(107th in CFB). 33 is far too many points to expect from BYU in this late-night matchup.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Iowa +9.5 @ Wisconsin AND Boston College +12.5 @ Syracuse(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Iowa vs Wisconsin features a clash of 2 stagnant offenses but also 2 great defenses. Iowa’s bread-and-butter all season has been forcing turnovers, which just happens to be Wisconsin’s achilles heal. Accordingly, Wisconsin has thrown the ball just 23 times over the past 2 games to avoid turnovers from QB Graham Mertz. Iowa is as stout of a defense as you’re going to find, so I expect them to hold strong against the run-heavy Badgers attack. The Iowa offense looked pitiful in a 7 point effort against Purdue, but with 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I expect some adjustments. Hawkeye QB Stephan Petras isn’t all that reliable, but he’s still far more trustworthy than Mertz. This should be a one-possession, low-scoring game that could go in either direction, so teasing Iowa up to a 2-possession dog seems like a safe bet.
Boston College let us down last week, but I’m going right back to the well with them in this teaser. It’s shocking to see Syracuse laying 6.5 to anybody in a conference game, but I’ll concede that the Orangemen have found success with the combo of QB Garret Shraeder and RB Sean Tucker in the running game. Even so, I trust BC HC Jeff Hafley to have the Golden Eagles ready to play. Boston College has to find a way to move on and recover from the absence of QB Phil Jurkovec; Dennis Grosel has been far too inconsistent since being forced into a starting role. However, Syracuse’s defense is beatable, and I just trust Hafley to have his guys in position to possibly win this game late.
Hi All! We keep pushing through this early, zany part of the NBA Season and we’re doing well (just check the data below)! Here are my favorite plays today:
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 17-10, +11.2 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 52-47, +10.9 units
Nets -8.5 (-110), 2 units and Pacers/Nets over 222 (-110), 1.5 units: Okay so tonight’s pick is pretty gross, I’ll give you that. I’m betting on one of the most media-fed teams in the NBA- I think they’re overrated and highly annoying- and yet here I am taking the points on a big line for this squad. The Nets have limped into the regular season and their allure has substantially diminished. When you think of the Nets, you think about explosive, high-paced offense, right? Yet so far they’re 25th in offensive efficiency and 26th in points at only 102 ppg. That’s pretty, well, shocking. James Harden has gotten off to a slow start, and while Kevin Durant is playing like we’d expect him to– dominant, confident, efficient– the rest of the Nets don’t seem to be gelling. Durant is averaging nearly 30 ppg and 10 rebounds already out the gate, but he’s not getting much help along the way. Blake Griffin is off, Joe Harris hasn’t been as electric from beyond the arc, and Harden is only averaging 16.6 ppg. Something has to give and why not tonight against one of the worst (and most depleted) defensive teams in the NBA?
The Pacers rank 26th in defensive efficiency so far this season. Even worse– their bench is producing at one of the lowest rates in the NBA. They already lack depth and additional injuries surely don’t help. Caris LaVert isn’t quite ready to return yet (at least that’s what reports tell me), and if he does play tonight he’ll almost definitely be on a minutes count after recovering from a stress fracture in his back (in basketball, that’s not ideal). Malcolm Brogdon is also out tonight, which leaves a tremendous amount of responsibility on Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and a shallow bench to keep pace with Brooklyn.
This feels like a game where the Nets’ offense can finally get right. I expect some improvement both in their offensive output and pace against a weak Indiana rotation. I’m on the Nets and I expect a high total, too– 222 feels low for that narrative. Let’s go!
