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DFS Take: MNF Single Game Slate NYG vs KC

MNF match up with a TON of speed, dynamic players, and value plays to be had. Currently 1-0 with our single slate DFS articles, let’s keep that momentum up for this final week 8 match up. 

There are a ton of routes we can go in this match up. The explosive offense in the Chiefs and the big play ability from specific Giants players, which will leave this slate wide open. It is going to come down to finding that value player with significant upside with minimal usage. Lets find that value:

(per Fanduel, adjust accordingly for your platform)

MVP: A player I like that will consistently get high volume targets is Travis Kelce. Chiefs will move the ball and he is a massive red zone target. If he can get his 10-12 targets combined with a couple touchdowns it may be just what we need to put ourselves in position for a big night. There are so many stars in this game and you have to think Mahomes, Hill, and Jones will have a higher MVP usage rate than Kelce. It is key to set us apart from the Masses. Kelce as our MVP @ $13,500.

First two flex spots: Both Mahomes and Daniel Jones are in play in my first two flex spots. Mahomes is pricey, but if we are relying on Kelce for a big night we should also stack the Qb getting him the ball. Jones is a playmaker for the Giants. Kc defense is weak and he will not only put up numbers with his arm, but his mobile ability is there (as long as he isn’t tripping over his own feet) as well.   Mahomes flex @ $17,000 and Jones flex @ $15,000

Last two flex spots: I am hoping for an aerial attack in this match up and a Wr I like with big play potential is Darius Slayton @ $9,000. The Giants are thin at Wr and Slayton had 9 targets last week against the Panthers. I am looking for that high volume to continue with a lower price tag player. This leaves us with $5,500 left to spend and our ultimate huge risk/huge reward value play is Josh Gordon.   Yes, I am aware he has only had two targets in his last two games. However, he has the potential to break that one big play to put us over the top. Combine that with a low usage percentage among the field this play could set us up to be in the cash.

Premiums – 11.1

 

NFL

  • Lean, Chiefs -10
  • T. Hill over 103 receiving yards (+103) **
NBA
  • Celtics 1H ML *
  • Celtics/Bulls over 218 **
  • Nuggets win **
  • Hawks -5.5 **

Rob Vinciletti: Monday NHL Totals Pick and Preview

Monday card has the NBA Power System Play of the Week and a 5* Monday night Football System that has hit 36 of 43 times since 1980. NHL Comp Play below.

The NHL Comp play is on the Under 6 goals in the Ottawa at Chicago game at 8:10 eastern.The Blackhawks have scored 3 or less in every game and are 29th in the league in scoring and 22nd in shots on goal. They have an Ottawa team coming in that is ranked 21st in scoring and 36 in shots on goal. The Senators are 4th in the league on Penalty kills an have stayed under in 6 of 7 thus far this season. Look for these two to stay under 6 here tonight. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on tonight, For the NHL Comp Play. Go under 6 in this game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

October 31st MLB Premium Play

Astros players celebrating after a big homerun.

Premium Plays: 49-25-1, +36.8u

*MLB(1.5u): Astros ML(-115) @ Braves–7:15 PM CT

The Astros are now down 3-1 in this series and are now a loss away from having their dreams come crashing down, but I think the postseason experience of this team carries them to a win tonight and brings this series back to Houston. The Braves held the Astros to just 2 runs in Games 3 and 4 combined, but considering what Atlanta will throw out there tonight, I don’t think that success continues. Tucker Davidson will get the start for Atlanta, but the primary pitcher in this game figures to be lefty Drew Smyly. Smyly did pitch well his last time out against the Dodgers, but he carried a 1.37 WHIP in the regular season as well as an abysmal 1.9 HR/9. Safe to say, this is the perfect spot for the Astros to get back on track offensively. Astros SP Framber Valdez was hit around a bit in game 1, but he’s found much more success pitching away from Minute Maid Park this season. The Braves’ offense has been clutch, but they are still plenty beatable. The Astros are willing to max out their bullpen tonight if need be, while the Braves might not be willing to stretch out their late-inning guys needing to win just 1 of the next 3 games. I’m confident this Astros team wins tonight and brings the series back to Houston.

Free NFL Premium with Analysis for Sunday, October 31st

Let’s continue executing the edge today!! We had a clean sweep yesterday in College Football going 6-0 and are 20-5 in our last 25 CFB plays!!  I have 3 premium NFL plays today and have 1 of them as a free pick below.  Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!

Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

The Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field this Sunday.  The Bears enter with a 3-4 record and have lost their last two games in embarrassing fashion, while the 49ers come in with a 2-4 record and have lost four straight after a promising 2-0 start. Both teams have dealt with injuries, have issues on both sides of the ball, and they’re in a race to keep their postseason hopes alive. The 49ers are averaging 354 yards per game, 5.9 yards per play and 22.5 points per game while the Bears come in putting up just 14.4 points per game after gaining 255 yards and 4.6 yards per play.  According to PFF, San Francisco ranks 20th in offense overall and the Bears are the 6th worst offense in the league. Additionally, the Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 road games and is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games overall. Both defenses rank in the upper half of the league in yards allowed per game.  The 49ers offense has struggled the past 2 weekends and I would expect that to continue.  The offensive output wont be enough to go over the total.  Look for a 20-13 type game with the 49ers winning the ball game. Take Under 39.5

Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

Premiums – Halloween!

 

You all already got my NFL plays for today — here’s what I like in NBA

  • Mavs -4 **
  • Rockets/Lakers under 222 **
Enjoy the festivities! –Chris

NFL Week 8 Free Plays – Sports Betting

Miami vs Buffalo -14 O/U 49

This game to me is really a no brainer.   I am not sure what Miami’s thoughts are after losing at home to Atlanta but they must not be real positive.  Some might think that this is a revenge spot for Miami after getting blown out 35-0 but if you look at the history between these teams, the is game was only close 1 time in their last 6 matchups.  Buffalo has won by double digits 5 out of the last 6 times.  Looking at the metrics, it isn’t even close and the fact that Buffalo is coming off a loss and a bye week gives them more time to prep for their next victim.  Buffalo is a team that beats up on the bad teams and the numbers show it being that they are 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.  My number have Buffalo winning this game 35 to 17 and that’s being nice.   I must say that I rarely lay over 7 points in the NFL but this situation calls for it.

Buffalo – 13.5 – 2 stars

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans +5.5 O/U 49

Now we all know what Tampa bay is and how they literally destroyed the Bears but this matchup to me is all about the defense.  Tampa’s only weakness is really their defense against the pass ranking 10th in passing yards per attempt and 23rd in opponent total passing yards per game.    The reason that I mention this is that New Orleans is a poor passing team with many injuries to their play makers and they will have to run the ball.  The issue New Orleans run game is that Tampa ranks 3rd in opponent rushing EPA allowing only 3.3 yards per rush.  The Saints themselves do not have a bad defense either ranking number 1 in defensive efficiency allowing a massive 19.7 yards per point while ranking 5th in drop-back EPA.  Now I think that Tom Brady will have some success against this  Saints defense but I also think that Sean Payton keeps a slow time of possession based game here so I think that Tampa wins but this total goes under.

Under 49 – 2.5 star premium

Refuse to lose Teaser that is 4-3 this year.  6 PT teaser – Patriots to 10.5 with the Titans to 8.5 – 2 star premium

October 31st NFL Free Play

In addition to this NFL free play, I will have an MLB play for my premium members in Game 5 of the World Series tonight. I’m 15-10-1, +6.28u in the NFL this season, and my premium plays are now 49-25-1, +36.8u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*NFL(1u): Steelers +4.5(-110) @ Browns–Noon CT

After a 1-3 start, many people wrote off the Steelers. However, they were able to bounce back with 2 straight wins before enjoying a BYE week heading into this divisional matchup. Ben Roethlisberger is obviously a shell of his former self, but he’s still competent enough to play a “game manager” role; his experience has to matter for something. While the Browns defense presents a tough matchup, I’m expecting rookie RB Najee Harris to break out in the second half of the season; that could very well begin with a productive game today. The Browns are riddled with injuries; Baker Mayfield will play despite having a torn labrum and shoulder fracture, and RB Kareem Hunt is still out for Cleveland. While they will welcome back RB Nick Chubb into the fold coming off an injury of his own, I doubt we’re going to see Chubb in his peak form in just his first game back of an injury. The Steelers’ defense has been their backbone all season long, and I think they’re catching Cleveland at a vulnerable time. 4.5 points is simply too many points to be giving a team of Pittsburgh’s pedigree in a division game. I’ll take Big Ben and the Steelers to cover as road ‘dogs coming off the BYE week.

Rob Vinciletti: Halloween Sunday NFL Titans at Colts Preview and Play

Halloween Sunday card has the 2021 AFC Total of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, a 5* 16-0 Power System along with Sunday night Football, NBA and World Series Game 5. NFL Comp Play below.

The NFL Comp play is on the Indianapolis Colts at 1:00 eastern. The Colts have covered 7 of 10 here vs the Titans and are off a big win in SF last week. They take on a Tennessee team that is off a pair of dog wins, a role which has seen them go 0-4 ats in the next game. Those upset wins also tie in a long Term system that plays against dogs of 5 or less off 2 straight dog wins vs an opponent off a win. The Titans have failed to cover 19 of 25 on the road vs a team under .500. The Favorite in this series has covered 8 of 10 and with Jonathan Taylor cleared to play the Colts can match the Titans run game and should emerge with the win.  On Halloween its all Treats today as the 2021 AFC Total of the Year and an Executive Level Tier 1 Headline a Powerful NFL Card. We also have a World Series Game 5 Play and NBA and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go with the Colts. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

NFL Week 8: Free Play

What a Thursday night game! Starting the week out 1-0 is huge. Now time to carry that momentum into this weekend. Here is my FREE PICK:

Current NFL Season Record: 68-36 (65%), +37.46 units

Lac -4.5 (-105) 1 unit: 

Coming off a bye at home after getting absolutely throttled by the Ravens, Chargers are going to be ready. Patriots have had a rather convenient schedule only having to travel twice so far this year out of their seven games. Once to play the Jets and the other to Houston, and boy did they struggle traveling all the way down there. Now they are going to span the entire country in a match up that does not bode well for them and here is why:

Offense. Simply put that is what the Patriots will lack in this game. They will not be able to go Toe-to-Toe with the high-powered Chargers offense. Justin Herbert will be back to form this week controlling the game flow, clock, and scoring. Mac Jones (in my opinion) is the best rookie QB this year, however there are levels to this. Herbert and the Chargers are in a much higher class than the Patriots and Mac Jones at this point. The Chargers are able to attack in all facets of the game. Effective running, high percentage short throws, deep down field attacks, competent tight end play, and the speed to tie it all together. They are dynamic, accurate, consistent, and complete. Patriots seem rather vanilla. Mac Jones is still learning and growing he’s managing the game, rather than dictating it. To be able to compete in this game the Patriots will need to match each and every touch down the Chargers put up. I do not see that happening. Chargers -4.5

Thanks for your support and good luck everyone!