We went on one hell of a run last night, finishing 5-1 for +7.5 units to start our weekend! The NBA continues to treat us well but head down, humility first, and we keep grinding in a long season. Here’s a prop play that I LOVE tonight!
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NFL Circa Picks: 32-17-1
NFL: 64-61 (52%), +7.1 units NBA: 43-34 (56%), +14.26 units
Jonas Valanciunas any line over 21.5 points or less (no line yet), 2 units – There’s just no way I couldn’t bet this prop in this spot for the Pelicans. After a great effort last night against Brooklyn, this young, injury-plagued Pelicans team goes into today on a back-to-back against the Grizzlies. Memphis suffered a bad loss last night at home against the surging Suns, who look to be back to form. The spot sucks for both of these clubs but at least the Pelicans get to stay home; Memphis will play its second away game in under 24 hours. Brandon Ingram is questionable, but even if he plays I don’t think it affects Valanciunas’ game all that much. The big man has been terrific with his new team. According to Basketball-Reference, the 7 footer is averaging 20 ppg and nearly 14 rebounds per game so far this season. Because of how injured the Pelicans are, they rely on Valanciunas for game in-game out production, and he delivers. Shooting 50% from the field and an amazing 52% from beyond the arc, Valanciunas will be overflowing with motivation and confidence tonight against his former team. The Grizzlies traded him to New Orleans earlier this year in a move that left many of us perplexed. Often the spark-plug for the Grizzlies when they needed it most, Jonas was an integral part of their playoff run last year. But with Ja Morant reaching new levels of superstardom, the franchise felt Valanciunas wasn’t as valuable for their future. I imagine the Lithuanian might disagree.
New coach Willie Green has his Pelicans fighting hard but they’re young and undermanned to start the regular season. I expect a huge game from Valanciunas tonight as he shoulders the load for his team once more– take the over on this prop and don’t look back!
Hell of a comeback night, my friends! 5-1 for +7.5 units. I added two more NFL plays below, in blue, and I’m OFF the Cardinals game. Cam may bring new energy to that team, even if he doesn’t play. And I still believe in their defense.
NBA:
Heat 1Q +1.5 ** (I’m not sure where this line will be, but I would even take them at ML. The Heat are the best 1st QTR team in the NBA; the Jazz are finishers)
Wizards -4 * (Clearly the better team here but, weird line. I guess it’s b/c Beal is out but that hasn’t mattered as much for this new-look Wiz team. The Wizards are incredible at rebounding so far and Orlando should be at a real disadvantage in the paint all night)
Valanciunas over points and over points/rebounds (to win one unit each – I honestly don’t care where these lines sit– Jonas will want to EAT against his former team, Brandon Ingram might be out, and Jonas has been terrific in the paint. Expect a big game from the big man)
Saturday card has the PAC 12 Play o the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Going late, a 2x perfect 6* and the BIG 10 Game of the Month, there is also an NBA Top Play and College Hoops. Comp play below
The College Football Comp Play for Saturday is on NC. ST. at 7:00 eastern. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ats vs winning teams and have covered 8 straight after passing for more than 275 yards. They take on what could be a dejected Wake Forest team that had their perfect season ruined with a blown lead loss to North Carolina. Now they take on an even better NC. St team. The Deacons fit a late season database system that plays against teams that are off their initial loss of the year and they are 1-4 ats off a loss and are ranked 105th in the nation on defense. NC. St has the 6th ranked offense and 18th ranked defense. Look for NC.St to get the win.. On Saturday a Top Level Card is up and led by the PAC 12 Game of the Year, a Late Executive Level TIER 1, The BIG 10 Game of the Month, an Early 2x Perfect 6*, Early Season College Hoops system plays and NBA Top play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the Comp play. Play on NC. St Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Very busy time of year for all, so much going on, it’s a very exciting time indeed. With all the data to review, I like to go heavier on sports that have the bigger sample size and tread lightly on the seasons that have just started. I’ll keep my Friday basketball handicaps as brief as possible…
NBA
POR at HOU
Tonight we have two teams that lean to the under as Portland is 5-7 O/U and HOU is 4-7 O/U yet we’re seeing a higher total of 222 for this one given all the unders in the NBA thus far. Tells me books and the market is expecting some regression to the mean on Portland’s poor shooting on the season. And thus, when we look at the 1Q total of 56.5 we see the books are expecting the regression or are tempting bettors to take the Under. With POR sitting at 1-10 O/U for 1Q totals and the Blazers not performing as well on the road, I’ll keep looking to the UN until proven otherwise. HOU does push the pace with a smaller lineup, but the shooting isn’t quite there yet, give me UN the higher total on the 1Q at the lesser juice…
POR/ HOU UN 56.5 (-107) 1.07u
CHI at GSW
“Superstar subtraction theory” (betting on teams the first game after they have a significant personnel loss) has been coming through across all sports it seems this year, so that will keep me off taking the Warriors full game. With the Warriors 9-2 O/U 1Q and the Bulls at 4-7 1Q O/U, we see teams that are starting out a little differently. With Vucevic out for the Bulls, I expect a period of adjustment while GSW is at full strength at home on a Friday. Give me the Warriors-2 1Q!
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - NOVEMBER 03: General view of Iowa Hawkeyes helmets are seen during the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on November 3, 2018 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
We are 89-73-2 in College Football this year up 26U! To become a member, please Click Here!
East Carolina vs Memphis -5.5 O/U 59
This game is going to be a good one and Memphis is coming off of a massive win vs a very good SMU team. The question that I have to ask is, how good was SMU? Well their schedule has been terrible this year and they came off of a loss to Houston messing up their undefeated hopes. Either way, this is a let down spot for Memphis. If you look to see who Memphis has on deck, it is Houston who is tied with Cincinnati to be number 1 in the AAC. I think that constitutes a look ahead spot when ECU is quietly making some noise themselves at 5-4 averaging over 30 points per game. ECU took Houston to overtime a few weeks back and right before that played tough at Central Florida. I like how they just finished off Temple while Memphis lost that game. I do not see a big advantage in the metrics for the Tigers because the Pirates had a harder schedule. I will take the points here.
East Carolina +5.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Minnesota vs Iowa -5.5 O/U 37
This is a pure power ratings and matchup handicap for me. Iowa has went 4-0-1 their last 5 games vs the Gophers. Last year they won by 30 points. Iowa only allows 2.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass. When the Gophers face good defenses, they seem to falter. Another concern that I have is that Minnesota is without their three main running backs due to injuries all season long. The Hawkeye’s have been bad their last three games vs Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Northwestern, and I think it’s time to right the ship. My power ratings has this game Iowa -8.25. I’ll grab the Hawkeyes here to win easily and cover in a get up spot at home.
Iowa -5.5 – 2.5 stars
Miami vs Florida State -2.5 O/U 61
I remember not long ago that we all thought D’Eriq King was going to have an amazing Heisman type year, and the Canes were going to be a serious contender. Well, shortly after that, we were proven quite wrong when they lost to Alabama, Michigan State and had a tough game vs Appalachian State. The good news is that Miami found their quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, and they have improved steadily since he came in. Miami played tough vs North Carolina and then upset NC State, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech at home even while losing the turnover battle. The Semi’s on the other hand haven’t shown some of the improvement that I saw with Miami. Their best win was against Syracuse before they knew that they had a quarterback and they caught North Carolina sleeping. After that they lost to NC State and Clemson by double digits. The Canes have a .1 net yard per play advantage even with those 2 bad losses vs Michigan State and Alabama. The Canes also had the harder schedule. I think Miami covers.
Wisconsin is under some serious change this year. The Badgers lost 4 of their top 5 starters and top scorers in D’Mitrik Trice, Guard, 13.9 ppg, Micah Potter, Forward, 12.5 ppg, Aleem Ford, Forward, 8.7 ppg, and Nate Reuvers, Forward, 8.3 ppg, while the only 2 recognizable players are Johnathan Davis and Brad Davison. Now I am not saying that Wisconsin can’t match up and easily beat a team ranking 307th on Kenpom like Green Bay with their new players, but what I am saying, is that their former beloved coach Bo Ryan’s son Will Ryan is the coach for UW Green Bay and I do not think that Wisconsin will try and blow this team out towards the end of the second half. Coach Greg Gard only has his job at Wisconsin due to Bo Ryan’s recommendation and it wouldn’t look pretty if this happened. I will take a shot at the Phoenix covering the big spread here. Might be best to not turn this game on until 2 minutes left.
Through 10 weeks of the CFB season, my record sits at 75-54-1(58%), +29.11u. In addition to these 5 free plays, I’ve reserved 7 CFB plays for my premium members. With another premium winner last night, my premium record moved to 61-28-1(68%), +46.9u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): South Florida TT UNDER 17.5(-125) vs Cincinnati–Fri. 5 PM CT
For a third straight week, undefeated Cincinnati played a game that was too close for comfort. The Bearcats understand that the College Football Playoff committee will do anything in their power to keep them out of the Top 4, and playing inferior teams down to the wire won’t help their cause. Tonight, they should completely outmatch South Florida; I’m expecting a total beatdown. However, because Cincinnati has shown some regression offensively, I feel more comfortable in just trusting the Cincinnati defense. South Florida unexpectedly put up 42 points against Houston last week, but it’s important to note that 14 of those points came via special teams; the Bulls recorded less than 400 total yards of offense. USF is rolling with true freshman QB Timmy McClain(54% completion, 7.3 Y/A), and their inability to establish the run won’t suddenly turn against an elite defense like Cincinnati. The motivation is there for Cincinnati to dominate this game, and I think they’ll do just that. Call it a 45-10 Bearcat win and, more importantly, a win on the USF TT Under.
*CFB(1u): Troy +7(-120) vs Louisiana–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since losing at Texas to open the season, Louisiana has won 8 straight. However, in their 3 road games during that streak, they have won by a combined 11 points against Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Arkansas State; those 3 opponents have a combined record of 8-19. Troy(5-4) has won 3 of their last 4 and played their 3 toughest opponents(South Carolina, Liberty, and Coastal Carolina) close to the very end. Dating back to last year, Troy almost upset undefeated Coastal Carolina late in the season in a similar scenario to this one. Louisiana QB Levi Lewis has had a disappointing season(61.7% completion, 7.4 Y/A), and I can’t trust him to turn things around in this spot. While the Ragin’ Cajuns defense is trustworthy, I refuse to acknowledge that Louisiana is 7 points better than Troy. Give me the points.
*CFB(1u): Colorado +17(-110) @ UCLA–Sat. 8 PM CT
A lot of people have written off Colorado, but did you know they beat a decent Oregon State team last week? Even more impressive, an offense that was labeled as inept was able to put up 37 points in the win. QB Brandon Lewis has thrown just 3 INT’s this season, so if the Buffaloes can continue to pound the rock with their RB’s, Lewis won’t be asked to do too much with his arm. UCLA is coming off a BYE week, but I’m not sure how high the motivation is for them in this spot. The Bruins had hopes of competing for a Pac12 championship this season, but sitting at 5-4(2-3 in conference), that now looks unlikely. The Bruins have USC on deck next week, a game that is likely on the front of their minds even a week before. Colorado’s strength on defense is at LB, which bodes well considering the Bruins’ offensive identity is their run game. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson should be back healthy for this one, but he’s been mostly unimpressive this season(59% completion, 7.9 Y/A). UCLA is just 2-3 at home this season, and the Rose Bowl creates little-to-no home field advantage for them. I expect Colorado to build off of last week’s win and keep this within the number.
*CFB(1u): Colorado/UCLA UNDER 57(-110)–Sat. 8 PM CT
Given that I expect Colorado to cover, I believe that to correlate pretty heavily to the Under. Colorado runs the 2nd fewest plays/game in CFB, so even if the Buffs build off of last week’s performance, that might show up more in the time of possession department than it does on the scoreboard. I do expect the Buffs to get stops and thus dictate the pace of this game. In that case, 57 is far too high of a total.
*CFB(1u): Nevada +3(-110) @ San Diego State–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
San Diego State suffered their 1st loss of the season 2 weeks ago to a Fresno State team that is built very similarly to this Nevada bunch. This game has major implications for the Mountain West “West” division race, and I’m trusting the better offense to pull through. Nevada QB Carson Strong is one of the top QB prospects in the country; with a cannon for an arm, what’s even more impressive is that he’s completed more than 70% of his passes this season. A 7.8 Y/A doesn’t do justice to the fact that he can and will beat teams vertically. San Diego State is allowing just 16.6 PPG this season, but as Fresno State proved with a 30 point performance 2 weeks ago, the Aztecs can be beaten by more prolific offenses. San Diego State’s offense is scoring just 19 PPG over their last 4 games and present virtually no threat through the air. Nevada has played a number of “high stakes” games already this season, so I expect them to be mentally prepared for what’s to come from a physical Aztec bunch. I think Nevada wins this game outright, but I’ll take the 3 points as insurance.
*CFB(1.5u): Miami/Florida State UNDER 61(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since the injury to Miami QB D’Eriq King, freshman Tyler Van Dyke has stepped in and played about as well as you could hope for. In the Hurricanes’ current 3 game winning streak, Van Dyke has thrown 10 TD’s to just 1 INT and completed 72% of his passes. With that being said, I’m staunch in my belief that regression is due for this Miami offense and specifically Van Dyke. Florida State might be 3-6 on the season, but when healthy, this is a pretty feisty Seminoles bunch. The Seminoles defense is about average, but they have yet to allow more than 35 points in a game since Week 1 against Notre Dame. Van Dyke is not a mobile QB, and past opponents have been able to get pressure on him(15 sacks in 5 starts). Miami RB Jaylan Knighton is averaging just 4.5 YPC this season as well, so the opportunity to win up front is there for Florida State. As for the ‘Noles’ offense, it appears starting QB Jordan Travis will be ready to go after missing last week’s game against NC State. Florida State is much better with Travis at QB due to his abilities as a runner, but even so, the ‘Noles are averaging just 22 PPG against FBS competition this season. Miami’s defense can be leaky, but I do believe they will hold up nicely against a predictable FSU run game without having to worry much about getting beat over the top. Florida State runs just 67.1 plays/game(100th in FBS), and because they will have home field advantage, I do expect them to largely dictate the pace of this game. This is a notorious rivalry game with tons of history and tradition; players on both sides grew up watching this game. You’re going to get each defense’s “A” effort; because each defense matches up nicely with the opposing offense, I expect to see the Under come through for us.
*CFB(1.5u): Purdue/Ohio State OVER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ohio State has enough talent offensively to where they will have every opportunity to drop at least 40 on any team they play. While they only put up 26 points at Nebraska last week, the Buckeyes are averaging 50 PPG in their other 5 Big10 games and will enjoy the familiar environment back in Columbus on Saturday. I wouldn’t consider Purdue to be bad defensively, but they are nowhere near the level necessary to stop this Buckeye offense. Last week, the Boilermakers yielded 146 rushing yards(6.3 YPC) to Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State, allowing QB Payton Thorne to throw for 9.2 Y/A. While Walker III is a legitimate Heisman contender, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson(936 rush yards, 7.3 YPC) is an even more talented back. The Buckeyes’ elite OL should allow them to establish the run game, which should open up QB CJ Stroud(67% completion, 9.8 Y/A) to strike consistently in the vertical passing game with his dominant WR group. While I’m bullish on the Buckeyes’ offense in this matchup, you have to tip your cap to what Purdue has done on that side of the ball as well. The Boilermakers present almost no threat in the running game, but because they’re willing to acknowledge that, they allow QB Aidan O’Connell to carry the load. O’Connell threw for 536 yards on 54 attempts last week(0 INT’s); while I’m not expecting a similar performance in this one, it proves that Purdue has what it takes to win through the air. Quite frankly, Ohio State hasn’t faced an offense in better current form all season. Ohio State struggled more in their run schemes earlier this season, but I’m not convinced they’re all that sound in the secondary. Purdue runs the 7th most plays/game in the country and will give themselves ample opportunities to score. I’ll call this a 45-24 Buckeyes win and, more importantly, a winner on the Over.
*CFB(1.5u): Minnesota/Iowa UNDER 37(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Is it scary to bet an Under with a total this low? Maybe. However, I’m not worried about this one coming through. Remember, this total is set so low for a reason. The books want nothing more than for you to take the Over. With where each of these offenses are, I have a hard time seeing many points scored in this matchup. Minnesota has deployed a run-heavy attack all season long, but the Gophers are now down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s after Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts suffered season-ending injuries. One might think that the Gophers could simply start relying more on 4th year QB Tanner Morgan, but PJ Fleck has been public in the fact that he has little trust in his WR’s. When the Gophers have tried to air it out(such as last week in a 6 point performance vs Illinois), pass protection has broken down. Iowa made a killing earlier this season on forcing INT’s, so you can expect Minnesota to try to shorten this game(102nd in plays/game this season) and pound the rock, likely to no avail. While Iowa’s defense should feel good about this matchup, the Hawkeyes have their own issues to deal with on the offensive side of things. QB Spencer Petras is out this week, forcing Alex Padilla into his first career start. Padilla entered last week’s game early and led the Hawkeyes to just 17 points against a vulnerable Northwestern defense. Like Minnesota, Iowa likes to control the clock and limit the opposition’s possession(81st in plays/game). Even with Petras healthy, the Hawkeyes averaged just 24 PPG; Minnesota is allowing just 18.3 PPG this season and is respectable in their own right. Each offense is a mess, so this game might not be one you want to watch. However, the Under is the play.
*CFB(1u): Michigan ML(-120) @ Penn State–Sat. 11 AM CT
It’s still to be decided whether Jim Harbaugh can win the “big game”, but from a pure matchup perspective, Michigan has the clear edge in this game. The Wolverines have deployed an efficient 1-2 punch at RB with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins; because the OL has consistently been able to win up front, QB Cade McNamara is seldom needed to do anything more than manage the game. There are some vulnerabilities in the Nittany Lion LB room(which should allow Michigan to establish the run game), but McNamara will almost certainly be needed to make the critical throws in this game. I thought he proved to be competent in a similar environment in East Lansing just 2 weeks ago, so I’m willing to trust him in this spot. What ultimately gets me on Michigan in this game is Penn State’s inability to run the football. The Nittany Lions’ leading rusher(Noah Cain) is averaging just 3.2 YPC this season; when you consider QB Sean Clifford has been sacked 18 times this season, it’s clear that Penn State is struggling to win up front. That bodes horribly in this matchup considering they’ll face one of the most lethal pass rushers in CFB this week(Aidan Hutchinson) and a downright good Wolverine defense. Sean Clifford can excel in an offense where he has enough help around him, but his counterparts on this Penn State offense often leave him out to dry. While this is not a big part of my handicap, it certainly doesn’t hurt that James Franklin’s status as Penn State’s HC is a true question mark at the time being. In any case, I like Michigan to pick up a massive road win in Happy Valley.
*CFB(1u): West Virginia/Kansas State UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
I’ve been on Kansas State Under’s numerous times this season given that the Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in the country and play good defense. I think Kansas State -6 is a pretty sharp line, but I once again see value in playing this one Under the total. West Virginia’s offense is just not very good, as evidenced by a 3 point performance against Oklahoma State last week. RB Leddie Brown has been bottled up against the Mountaineers’ tougher competition, and QB Jarrett Doege almost never challenges defenses vertically. Kansas State has one of the best secondaries in the Big12, so the Wildcats will force WVU to be ultra-efficient and sustain long drives in order to score. So far, that formula hasn’t boded well for West Virginia(20.5 PPG in conference play). Like I said, Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in the country; they have been quite efficient this season, and yet they still average just 28 PPG. West Virginia’s defense has proven to be stingy at times; they allowed just 16 points on the road against Oklahoma, 17 points at TCU, and 24 points to Oklahoma State last week. The common denominator in all of those performances was their ability to stop the run. They’ll have their hands full with Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn, but I’m counting on the Mountaineers defense to get stops and keep this one competitive. In such a low variance game, I think any total north of 45 is worth a play on the Under.
*CFB Teaser(1u): East Carolina +11 @ Memphis AND Mississippi State +11.5 @ Auburn(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Memphis(5-4) is coming off a big win over SMU last week, but this team has shown some inconsistencies this season(they lost to Temple for crying out loud). QB Sean Henigan is a true freshman who’s still learning the ropes, while ECU QB Holton Ahlers is a 4th year starter with nearly 10,000 career passing yards under his belt. In their last 3 losses, ECU(5-4) has lost by an average 4.6 PPG to South Carolina, UCF, and Houston. Given that Memphis is predictable offensively(Henigan focuses in on one WR), I expect the Pirate defense to step up and force some turnovers from the young QB. From there, Ahlers and a solid 1-2 combo at RB are plenty capable of keeping this a 1 possession game(and perhaps winning outright).
Mississippi State should’ve won at Arkansas last week if not for a last minute Razorback scoring drive(and an 0-3 day from Bulldog kickers). QB Will Rogers seems to have mastered Mike Leach’s Air Raid scheme; the Bulldogs are averaging almost 35 PPG over their past 3 games, and Rogers has completed more than 70% of his passes in 6 of his last 7 games. Auburn is solid in their front 7, but because Miss State seldom relies on their run game, I think Rogers and co. will be able to maneuver their Air Raid scheme as normal. I watched the entirety of the Auburn/Texas A&M game last week, and to say I was appalled by Auburn’s offense would be an understatement. The Tigers present virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, and they won’t have an easy time installing that this week against a solid MSU secondary. I didn’t expect much from Miss State’s front 7 this season, but they have genuinely surprised me with their competency; I think they’re plenty capable of holding Auburn’s run game in check and forcing Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. I think we see a lower-scoring game that comes right down to the wire(like most Mississippi State games seem to).
*CFB(1u): Georgia Tech TT OVER 28.5(-120) vs Boston College–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Georgia Tech is a high-variance team that has shown massive swings in performance this season, but from what I saw in their close 33-30 loss to Miami last week, I believe they’re offense is finding some solid ground. The Yellow Jackets 1-2 combo at RB combined for 142 yards on just 17 carries and have been a strength for GT all season. QB Jeff Sims has seen a slip in his play recently, but he features a cannon of an arm and is also an effective runner. If there’s one thing Boston College HC Jeff Hafley has struggled with throughout his career, it’s dynamic offenses like the one he’ll face on Saturday. The Golden Eagle defense has faced two straight run-first offenses(Syracuse and Virginia Tech) and have proven to be vulnerable against more dynamic offenses like Louisville, NC State, and Missouri. I like Georgia Tech to cross the 30-point barrier in this one.
