Check out the latest episode of Laying the Points with FarleyBets! Chris talks a little NFL Draft and the NBA’s changing of the guard, and then goes into some lookahead NBA bets for Thursday, May 6 and Friday, May 7.
NBA Picks and Predictions – Cinco de Mayo, 2021
Another good night in NBA Tuesday, going 3-1 in our bets. Too bad the Nets didn’t pull through for us, but that’s why we don’t like them as champions this year– BAD defense! Onto my Cinco de Mayo picks!
Suns -1 (-110), 2 units: The Suns are only 1 point favorites on the road for a reason– the Hawks are a dangerous team right now. Behind the front court dominance of Clint Capela and solid guard play of Trae Young, the Hawks are finding ways to win and they sit at 5th in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta doesn’t want to fall in those standings since the closer you get to that tricky 7th seed, the closer you are to one of those damn “play-in tournament” games. Unfortunately the Suns still want to win, too. Phoenix shouldn’t be any less motivated tonight as they defend their #1 seed in the West and look to stay atop the seedings when the postseason begins. The Suns aren’t covering like they did earlier in the season but they’re still ending the victors, riding a 5 game winning streak into this contest. Although the Hawks are talented and resilient, the Suns are all that and more. I worry how the Hawks’ 21st ranked defense (Hollinger Metrics) will fend off the top 5 offense of Phoenix. The top 6 defense of the Suns will be a problem, too. If you had to define Phoenix by one word all year it would be consistency. They win, they play well on both sides of the ball, they stay healthy, and they have a great leader in Chris Paul. It’s rare you’ll find a line this giving on Phoenix again before the playoffs– hammer it.
Grizzlies -3.5 (-110), 2 units: You could surely argue that the healthy Timberwolves are playing better than the Grizzlies these days. You could. I just don’t care. Memphis’ recent struggles (they’ve lost 4 of their last 5) only makes me like this game more. The Grizzlies need to win, they sit 9th in the West, and they need to do it on this easy 3 game road trip that starts tonight. Detroit and Toronto are later this week. Three wins would mean a lot to secure their place in at least the play-in games and the Grizzlies, for all their recent woes, are still a way better and more balanced unit than Minnesota. (Minnesota is rated 28th on defense, for example, while Memphis is 8th). Another line, another steal. I’m all over it.
Wizards/Bucks over 243.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Yea I’m not gonna even explain this one, much. Bucks play insanely fast at home (cue Giannis running full speed trampling over guards that look like ants compared to him), and the Wizards lately can’t seem to not score 125+ points. Please. Over over over and if it doesn’t hit, it’s just a blatant F-U- from the gambling Gods, which I may or may not deserve.
Knicks +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Knicks are the ATS leader overall and they’re not too shabby on the road either, hitting at a rate of 65.6%. They’re at the start of a truly horrific part of their road trip, where they’ll have to visit Phoenix Friday and then LAC on Sunday. Oh yea and then they face the Lakers, still in LA, on Tuesday. Sheesh. But I care not. The Knicks will win one of these tough games and I think this may be the spot. Jokic is the leader and commander of Denver but it can’t be easy mustering all these wins against quality opponents. Isn’t the Joker tired yet? They’ll host Utah on Friday, which is a game they probably care more about. The Knicks are healthy and energized and can’t seem to not cover lately. I’ll go with the trend and sprinkle some money-line action here, too.
Spurs +6.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Spurs really need to start winning and winning NOW if they want to make the play-in games and postseason. They sit at 10th in the West, which is the final spot to secure extra playing time. The Jazz probably care about the 2nd seed or their chances of getting a 1st seed too, but they have Denver on the horizon in two days. Could they be looking over their shoulder? Perhaps. San Antonio is the ATS leader on the road, covering an insane 70% of the time, while the Jazz are covering 65.5% of the time. That’s tied with the Knicks for the best in the NBA. Still, the Spurs are the more desperate team and I expect this showdown to have a genuine playoff feel. That should mean more defense and a close game that’s decided in the 4th quarter. I’ll take the dog.
MLB Picks and Predictions – Cinco de Mayo, 2021
Happy Cinco de Mayo! Baseball can be a frustrating sport to bet on– I was winning in so many bets, only to fall below .500 on the day Tuesday, but remember– this is a LONG term game. Bet with the right mentality and angles and you will win in the long-run, period. Carrying that philosophy with us, let’s move onto our picks today:
White Sox win (+105), 1 unit: Those White Sox bats were hot last night. Behind a magnificent game from Dylan Cease, Chicago continues to dominate series against the Reds, blowing them out 9-0 last night at Great American Ballpark. The White Sox have one of the best and most consistent offenses in MLB and they’ll hope to continue that in the early slot today. Dallas Keuchel (4.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 31 innings) is sent to the mound Wednesday for CHW and although he hasn’t looked great, I think he’s due for some positive regression. The 33 year old looked in his prime last year. Plus, how could you not be confident with the hit-support you’re getting in between innings? Sonny Gray (5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 13.2 innings) still has really solid velocity but he’s allowing way too much contact in the early going. Against these bats, I’d rather trust the plus money White Sox, who should probably be favored, to keep delivering points. I also lean to the over (8.5, even) in this one.
Rockies -1.5 (+170), 1 unit: There’s too much value on the Rockies side so I’m going to keep hitting it. The Giants roll out starter Logan Webb (4.13 ERA, 3.88 FIP over 28.1 innings) today, who’s looked really good in spurts and really vulnerable in other spots. I’m betting on him looking more vulnerable at Denver. Colorado will send out Jon Gray (3.15 ERA, 3.72 FIP over 34.1 innings), who like his opponent has been volatile so far this season. He’ll look to avenge a bad showing in his last start against Arizona, where he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. Colorado came alive in game 2 yesterday and they’re a dangerous scoring team at home, as I’ve alluded to in previous articles this week. It’s also likely that the Rockies are more motivated to win this series since they’ve been owned in recent history against their NL West foe. These two ballclubs won’t see each other again for 3 months so it’s time to make a statement, which is something that Colorado probably relates to on a more visceral level. The Rockies winning by margin is never a crazy thought at Coors and I’ll hammer it again.
Orioles win (even), 1.5 units: This is a pretty simple handicap. John Means (1.70 ERA, 0.84 WHIP over 37 innings) has been excellent so far for Baltimore. He’s being utilized a ton but he’s delivered, showing command, endurance, and consistently high velocity (92.7 on his fastball). He also boasts a 100% left on base percentage in 2021. A sample size of 37 innings is more than enough to be impressed by those numbers. Today he’ll rival Seattle’s starter Yusei Kikuchi (4.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 30.2 innings). Kikuchi was great in his most recent outing, allowing only 1 hit over 7 innings against an exceptional Astros offense, holding them scoreless. Good for him, but that won’t last. Kikuchi’s big arm is impressive but recent history shows us that eventually he’ll lack the command to sustain exceptional performances like the one we saw against Houston. The 29 year old leftie allows too much hard contact and way too many homeruns (1.47/9 innings in 2021), and that’s good news for Baltimore. The Orioles have thrived against lefties, averaging more hits, more homeruns, and considerably more RBIs per at bat against left-handers. Their batting average is also a stellar .271 against south-paws. The Mariners have found ways to win more games against Baltimore so far this season, but I expect the Orioles and their aggressive bats to edge out the home team with Means on the mound. It’s an opportunity the O’s need to take advantage of.
Braves win (-135), 1.5 units: This is a bet on Max Fried. According to many reports, Fried is in a much better place after injuring his hip at the start of the season. His numbers are obviously abysmal so far- 11.45 ERA, 2.55 WHIP over 11 innings- but the 27 year old is too young and too talented for that to last. We saw how elite his command can be (he had a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts last season), and he seems very confident coming off the break, saying, “I wasn’t as crisp in my delivery. I just wasn’t as timed up. I felt like I was really late and falling forward, wasn’t really driving the baseball like I was last year. I definitely wanted to make sure that when I came back I’d be doing more of driving the baseball and focusing on executing those spots like I was last year rather than throwing it in there. (Now) I feel more timed up. I feel like everything is more crisp and on point. I’m excited to take it out there, not think about it and go compete.” (credit to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) Erick Fedde (4.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 22.1 innings) mans the dirt for Washington today, who we trust much less. Fedde has a 66% LOB so far and those Atlanta bats looked awfully comfortable last night at Nationals Park. It’ll be another mild and humid day– Braves bats stay hot, Fried gets a win and some nice regression. Go ATL!
Royals first 5 (+145), 1 unit: In any sport you bet, the key is to look for value, right? Kansas City has been slightly out-classed by the Indians in 2 games but they’re still a top 10 offense and Shane Bieber (2.76 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 42.1 innings) hasn’t been unhittable this year. Bieber looks to be rounding into form and he certainly shows endurance, but he’s a bit overutilized as the Indians ace. He’s averaging over 7 innings per game thus far. He’s a young hot shot arm but is that sustainable? We’ll see. Kansas City has scored in this series, they’re just getting out-paced and slightly out-pitched. Brady Singer (3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 23.1 innings) is certainly more fresh than Bieber since he only pitched 2 innings in his last start against Minnesota. That was a bullpen game for KC and I think it’ll serve him well today. The Royals were hot out the gate but they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games while the Indians are on the opposite boat, winning 7 of their last 9. At home, more desperate and behind a formidable, rested arm– I’ll take KC in the first 5.
NBA Picks and Predictions – May 4, 2021
It’s another small slate of NBA action and I have nothing to say here except 1) my Pacers/Wizards under bet- LOL, and 2) Russel Westbrook are you kidding me? Ridiculous stat line, though it is the modern (soft) NBA. Let’s get to Tuesday’s bets!
Lean, Cavaliers + 13 (-110): Of course I want to take the Suns here to stomp out the inferior Cavs but lately they don’t seem to care as much about smashing teams. Tied for first place in the West, even Chris Paul and company might finally be feeling the exhaustion of months and months of NBA action. After 3 impressive wins against some of the best teams in the NBA, Phoenix nearly got caught against OKC 2 nights ago, winning only by a 3 point margin (they were favored by 16). I should have seen that angle Sunday night and I’m sure I’ll wish this was an actual bet today, but the Suns are obviously the vastly superior team here. They’re on the road against a feisty Atlanta team tomorrow night, too. Collin Sexton is a bucket and at home, the Cavs could easily prove more challenging than expected. No official bet, but I’d lean “The Land.”
Nets/Bucks- Multiple Bets:
- Giannis over 31.5 points (-130), 2 units: In case you didn’t notice Sunday, Giannis is a PROBLEM for Brooklyn’s porous front court. DeAndre Jordan isn’t what he used to be and Blake Griffin looks 5’8″ standing next to the Greek Freak. Durant plays “okay” defense but not good enough or energetic enough to stop Giannis. The Bucks front man easily scored 49 points and pushed the pace without refrain 2 nights ago. Since that recipe worked, expect the Bucks to stick with their game-plan and feed the reigning MVP as much as possible. The ceiling is ridiculously high here, so 31.5 feels quite low.
- Nets/Bucks first Q over 61 (-115), 1.5 units: I guess I could get cute and try to project other angles here for your entertainment, but the reality is that this game will probably look a lot like the first. This is another showcase matchup where Durant and Kyrie want to out-shine Giannis and company. Look for a ton of points in the first quarter, and be cautious about this game slowing down in proceeding periods.
- Nets win (+105), 1 unit: If we know anything about the Nets and their assortment of random talent, it’s that they love to spit on media narratives. I don’t think this is a championship team– you still have to play defense to win titles– but the Nets are great at answering the call when they’re being doubted. Expect Kyrie to play a bigger role and Durant to shoot even sharper than the first game. The Nets are literally a circus but when they’re motivated, watch out. They should be supremely motivated tonight.
Pelicans win (-120), 1.5 units: When Steph Curry and the Warriors shoot like they did last night– good luck! The Pelicans never had a chance Monday. I looked at the scoreboard early in the first quarter and it was 9-2. Then it was something like 16-5. And then it was 33-19. And then it was 46-29. You get it. Golden State kept margin and never let their foot off the gas, which is something they’ll have to do again here today if they want to hold back Zion and company. The Pelicans are better than what they showed yesterday. Although still not a good ATS team (or TEAM, for that matter), the Pelicans are at home after an embarrassing loss and again, they REALLY need to win to stay in playoff contention. Between Zion and Ball and Ingram and Bledsoe, they just have too much talent to keep losing in this fashion. It speaks to how bad their coaching is, more on that in my new podcast around the corner, but the Warriors have a very shallow front court and the Pelicans need to slow down the game and expose that. Predictably, New Orleans can’t cover perimeter shooters and Curry proved that real quick, scoring 17 points in the first quarter and 41 overall. The Warriors also shot a ridiculous 53.4% from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc. New Orleans shot a wretched 20% from 3 point land– yikes. Expect some regression to the mean and a desperate Pelicans team to snag a win. Golden State needs a victory but the home team needs it much, much more. The books know that and that’s why they’re favored. I’m trigger shy too, but it’s the right side.
MLB Picks and Predictions – May 4, 2021
A nice plus money win with the Orioles gives us an overall winning day in MLB Monday. The Brewers had the bases loaded but couldn’t take advantage in the 9th, so Philly snuck away with a win and prevented our perfect day. Onto Tuesday:
Dodgers/Cubs Game 1 over 3.5 in first 5 innings (-110), 1.1 units: The wind is a rare calm in Chicago today, with mild temperatures, an overcast sky, and high humidity grazing over the Midwest. Is Clayton Kershaw (2.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 38.2 innings) still one of the best in baseball? Oh yes. Do we expect some positive regression from Kyle Hendricks (7.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP over 22.2 innings) after 2 bad showings against the Braves? Yes indeed. But with the weather where it needs to be, a low 5 inning total and two teams that are trending upwards at bat, I’ll take a shot on the first 5 over. After all, for all of the Cubs’ woes on offense, they’re now a top 10 team in slugging percentage, RBIs per game, and homeruns per game. And we all know what LAD can do behind their bats when they find a rhythm. Let it fly, boys!
Rockies win game 1 (no line yet), 1.5 units: The Giants and Rockies now have a doubleheader after yesterday’s cancelled game but our handicapping hasn’t changed. Just like I stated in my MLB article yesterday, the Rockies are a different team at home. Scoring 89 points over 15 games, good for 5.9 runs per game at Coors, Colorado must be anticipating this series against a Giants unit that dominated them at Oracle Park. As you’re surely aware, the Giants almost solely depend on excellent pitching to earn their victories. Although that’s obviously a solid philosophy in pro-baseball, it’s not as effective at Coors Field. The Giants have, to put it lightly, had their struggles swinging the bat. San Francisco’s 28 year old starter Alex Wood (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) has played well thus far in just 18 innings, but the Rockies give us inherent opportunity today as the grossly under-valued dog with a considerably more capable offense at home. The humidity is hitting 95% and it’s a mild day in Denver. I’ll take another shot at Colorado in game 1.
Astros win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Uh, why are the Yankees favored here? Because they beat up on the lowly Tigers at home? Allow me an uninspired 2-3 slow claps but don’t color me impressed. Zack Greinke (3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 36.2 innings) is obviously beyond his prime. The “designated ace” for the Houston Astros has a devolving velocity and shaky fastball command, but at 37 Greinke knows how to manage contact better than most. He’s also aware that his homerun allowance, good for 1.23 HR/9 innings thus far, needs to decrease if he’s going to best HR-dependent teams like the Yankees. Greinke hasn’t fared well against NYY over his long career, but I think it’s fair to say that this Yankees unit is a little less intimidating. New York found their bats recently against Detroit and Baltimore, but isn’t that what we should expect? Domingo German (4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 20 innings) gets the call for the pinstripes today and he looked his best in his last start against Baltimore, allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs over 7 innings. Like Greinke (but worse), German has struggled with allowing homeruns, posting a 1.80 HR/9 innings average in 2021. Both of these ballclubs are on their own surges– Houston has won 5 of their last 7 while the Yankees have won 5 of their last 6. Each have won 8 of their last 11 games. The Yankees have a small edge in homeruns overall but Houston is better than them in virtually every offensive category, not to mention I’d much rather have a dependable Houston bullpen as backup support. Behind Greinke and at even money, I have to take the Astros.
Braves win (-136), 2 units and Lean, Game over 9 (even): I’m not sure what’s going on in Braves country but it hasn’t looked pretty over the past week. Atlanta has no lack of offensive prowess behind Acuna Jr., and now Marcell Ozuna has come alive too with 5 RBIs in his last 5 games. All that is well and good but with Fried and Soroka still injured, Atlanta has to find more help at the mound. Huascar Ynao (2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 27.1 innings) is at least a good temporary answer. The 22 year old Dominican pitcher looked very confident in his last 2 outings, shutting out the Cubs and only allowing 2 runs in 6 innings against Arizona. That’s the kind of edge he’ll have to bring today against a Nationals lineup that’s in a real groove. I trust him more than Joe Ross (4.64 ERA over 21.1 innings). Ross’ only bad game was against St. Louis, where he got blasted with 4 homeruns and permitted 10 total points. I’m fading him more because of recent history. Over 29.2 career innings against Atlanta, Ross owns an atrocious 6.98 ERA. The Braves are in serious need of positive regression and this feels like the spot to get it. Thunderstorms may delay or suspend this game, but it’ll be warm and humid today at Nationals Park so I expect some fireworks either way– though the total is just a lean out of respect for Ynao.
Red Sox -1.5 (+105), 1.4 units: The Tigers have to be a bit defeated after allowing the Yankees to gain a whole new perspective about themselves in their 3-game series. You hate to see that. Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings) has looked really solid all year and the Red Sox are in need of some redemption too, dropping 3 of their last 4 games to the volatile Texas Rangers. That was a head-scratcher. This is a nice get-right spot at Fenway for the Red Sox to resurrect some defense and continue their exceptional performance at the plate. Boston still owns the best ERA in the majors. I expect a Red Sox win by some margin today.
Orioles -1.5 (+170), 1 unit and Game over 8.5 (-110), 1.1 units: This is a pure momentum play on Baltimore. The Orioles are feeling themselves and Seattle doesn’t have the pitchers nor the bullpen to scare me away from taking shots on plus money with the underdogs. Baltimore has won 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve averaging a solid 5 runs per game during that span. I’ll ride the O-train until I can’t anymore. I’ll add the over play since I trust in Baltimore’s bats and since Jorge Lopez (BAL- 7.48 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over 21.2 innings) hasn’t exactly been stellar this year.
NBA Picks and Predictions – May 3, 2021
Well a few bad beats kept us from another winning day Sunday (gotta love a last second 3 pointer by the team getting routed to kill your under bet, classic), but we’re still soaring into May after another winning week. Onto today’s bets:
Pacers/Wizards under 246 (-115), 2 units: The totals have officially gotten too high. The Wizards are damn-near averaging 120 points over the last 2 weeks and the Pacers just scored 152 points, but I care not. This is playoff time. There’s only 2 weeks left in the regular season and both of these teams are on the path for extra playing time. Because of the new “play-in” rule, which I despise by the way, the 9th and 10th seeds will be eligible to make the playoffs in a little tournament before the actual playoffs begin. Of course that means more teams can make the postseason, but the Wizards and Pacers are still in a vulnerable spot. Washington is currently the 10th seed and Indiana is 9th. Just like we saw in yesterday’s showdown between the Bucks and Nets, this game will slow down at some point and defenses will have an edge. If you like an over in this game, I would go for the 1st quarter or 1st half. Avoid the full game– it’s just too many points when the games are this contentious.
Warriors/Pelicans 1st Quarter over 60 (-110), 2 units: Same story as yesterday’s write up on the Nets and the Bucks, only this time it’s between two lower-tier teams duking it out for playoff positioning. New Orleans plays at an increasingly fast tempo and Golden State is one of the quickest teams in the NBA. They have been for quite some time. Even better, the Pelicans play notoriously bad defense, especially in the back court, and the Warriors really struggle guarding the front court. That’s a great recipe for both Zion and Curry. While Steph is swishing bombs from the outside, Zion should be able to impose his will in the paint. I’ll avoid player props– those numbers have gotten too high– and I’ll fade the full game over for the same reasons I talked about in the above write-up. The Pelicans really need this game since they sit at 11th in the Western Conference standings. I lean their side (-140) but I’d rather go with an energetic 1st quarter to fly over. If the Pelicans can’t muster some defense and Curry gets hot, this won’t be close.
Grizzlies -3.5 (-115), 1.7 units: I really want to bet on New York here but it feels like a trap. The Grizzlies sit on the edge of the play-in games at 8th in the Western Conference, while the NBA’s ATS-leading Knicks sit comfortably at 4th in the East. If this was a different setup or if this game mattered as much to New York, I would ride with the Knicks here. I think they’re the better team. The Grizzlies aren’t too far off, though. They have dynamic scoring ability from all over their roster and they play great defense too, rated 8th overall in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics. Memphis is coming off a bad loss to Orlando 2 nights ago, certainly not something they can afford right now, while the Knicks just easily whooped the Rockets last night. New York is right in the middle of a long, brutal road trip that gets worse as the week goes on. They’ll have to travel to Denver, LAC, and Phoenix this week, three of the best teams in the West. I hope that doesn’t mean more losses and criticism for the Knicks, who genuinely deserve all the praise they’ve received. Memphis has an easy week ahead; they’ll face Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto. They have a revenge angle here as well, since the Knicks eked out a win against them (133-129) back in early April. I like the under in this game (221) but this is a more ideal spot to take the Grizzlies. I found myself writing “Knicks win (+145)” initially but that was all about my heart, not good handicapping. You have to execute good bets even if it hurts. Grizz cover.
Lakers +5 (-110), 1 unit: I’d be very cautious betting on Denver here. I realize Lebron is out tonight but that may be a good thing for LAL. King James is still a little rusty and he’s sounding awfully negative lately, saying things like, “I’ll probably never be 100%” and “whoever thought of that (play-in) idea should get fired.” Lebron isn’t in a good place but he’s led his team far enough to still sit at 7th overall in the Western Conference, even without playing 2 months and even without Anthony Davis for a huge part of the year. The Nuggets on the other hand, well, they’re pretty damn good. I’ve been saying that for a long time and they’re proving it– in tough spot after tough spot, they just keep winning. Denver has now won 9 of their last 10 and 5 games in a row entering Monday night. Big matchups await as Denver has New York, Utah, and Brooklyn ahead this week. Jokic and the Nuggets should care about this game, but do they? Lebron will be coaching up his boys, the Lakers are at home and they’ll get a solid 3 days rest after tonight. Don’t be so quick to jump all over the Nuggets in this spot. Lakers have the advantage- 1 unit for me.
MLB Picks and Predictions – May 3, 2021
Light day and light card for me, but there’s definitely some great value out there.
Brewers win (+108), 1.5 units: The wrong team is favored here. That gut-sucking loss late on Sunday can’t feeling great for Philly heading into tonight. I nearly placed (glad I didn’t) a $100 bet at +1600 odds in the 9th for the Phillies to pull out the win and they probably should have. Either way, the Brewers have owned the Phillies in recent past and Vince Velasquez (6.57 ERA over 12.1 innings) has been very hittable in the brief outings we’ve seen him. I’ll take the better team and better rotation (not to mention a team that’s a very comfortable 9-3 on the road so far) in Milwaukee for + money.
Rockies -1.5 (+160), 1 unit: The San Francisco Giants have gotten off to a promising start in 2021 but that’s largely thanks to exceptional pitching. Their bats have been anything but exceptional, ranking in the bottom quadrant in many offensive statistics thus far, including hits per game and batting average. That could be a problem tonight against Colorado. The Rockies love their mountainous fortress at Coors Field and this feels like a good setup behind German Marquez (3.13 ERA and only 0.83 HR/9 innings at home) and an offense that averages 5.9 runs per game at home. Aaron Sanchez (2.22 ERA over 24.1 innings) has looked impressive so far but he hasn’t started in Denver yet. This is also a revenge game for Marquez, who had one of his worst performances of the season last week, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in just 4 innings against the same Giants. The value lies with a Rockies team that could quickly gain margin.
Orioles win (+113), 1.5 units: The wrong team might be favored here, too. The Orioles have been playing really well lately, getting great performances by their starting pitchers and solid work from their bullpen. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, including a series win at Oakland that I was personally very was impressed by. Seattle will commit to a bullpen game tonight after they secured a win against an Angels team that suddenly became ice cold at home-plate. That was more about LAA’s let-down-spot than it was a good Seattle team. I trust the confident hitters and pitchers of Baltimore more so why not take advantage of another + money value play. Go O’s!
MLB 5/2/21 Free Plays – Sports Betting
Kansas City vs Minnesota -193 O/U 8.5
I hope your Bloodies are treating you well after yesterday’s Kentucky Derby! One thing that you might be wondering here is why are the 16-9 Royals this big of dogs to the 9-16 Twins? This game features one of the best pitchers in baseball in Jose Berrios. Jose is sporting a 2.23 FIP after 25 innings this year putting him in early contention for at least an all-star appearance. Kansas City has Brad Keller at the helm who has started off quite rough having a 5.09 FIP over 18 miserable innings. Both bullpens have been pretty equal but Minnesota is the better hitting team ranking 9th in WRC+ to Kansas City’s 14th. There is a little more to this handicap. Minnesota needs this 3 game series against a division opponent badly and Kansas City is a big regression candidate ranking number 2 in LOB% and number 6 in batting average with RISP. Minnesota leads the Royals in batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Kansas City has been quite lucky thus far. Grabbing the ML and the Run Line here.
Minnesota -193 – 1.5 stars
Minnesota -1.5 -103 – 1.5 stars
Baltimore vs Oakland -195 O/U 8.5
Baltimore has been on a nice tear here winning their last 3 games in a row and 5 out of their last 7 but all good things must come to an end. This is a daytime game with the wind blowing out to left center. Both pitchers are lefties. Oakland has their stud pitcher Manaea with a 3.23 FIP going against Bruce Zimmerman who shouldn’t even be a starter. He is 1-3 so far with a 5.7 FIP. Both are lefties. Baltimore ranks 10th in the league batting against lefties with a nice .325 wOBA. Baltimore isn’t terrible against lefties with a .309 wOBA. The wind is blowing out yet there is money coming in on the under. I think it is because Baltimore ranks only 27th in WRC+ and Manaea is such a good pitcher. I think with the wind blowing out at 12 MPH, the safest play here is the Oakland team total over 4.5.
Oakland TT over 4.5 -120 – 2 stars
NBA Picks and Predictions – May 2, 2021
We’re 11-6 on the week– let’s get more wins!
Nets/Bucks first quarter over 62 (-110), 2 units: I’d love to pick a side here but the reality is we’re stretching it if we think one team has any real advantage. Sunday is the start of two games at Milwaukee with a day of rest in-between, although Brooklyn does start a rough road stretch here (they’ll have to travel to Dallas, Denver, and then Chicago on this week’s tour). Both teams will start all their stars (sans James Harden, of course), although Giannis has been nursing an ankle injury as of late. The Greek-freak rested in the Bucks’ last game against Chicago, where they still got a nice win, and now should be primed and ready for this showcase matchup. The total is set at 244, which feels dead-on, and the Bucks should be favored since they’re at home and hungry to gain some steam in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee plays better defense than Brooklyn but these teams are largely mirrors of each other. They both like to play with tempo (Milwaukee is 2nd, Brooklyn is 11th), they’re the top scoring teams in the NBA (Milwaukee is #1, Brooklyn is a very close #2), and they’re both extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor (Brooklyn is 1st, Milwaukee is 5th overall according to Hollinger’s metrics). Because big-time battles like this can lead to more cerebral endings in a playoff-like atmosphere, I’d rather take a shot on an early over in the 1st quarter. Both squads should come out fired up and ready to put on a show, which usually means points, points, and more points. I love the first quarter going over 62.
Hornets +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I don’t know if Charlotte will win this game, but I’m pretty impressed by how they’ve remained in contention even without LaMelo Ball and while they’ve continually nursed injuries on/off the bench. I wish Gordon Hayward had a chance to come back, it’s unlikely he will this season, but Ball’s return led to an exciting result last night as the Hornets dismantled the Pistons at the Spectrum Center. The Heat travel to Charlotte today after an easy win at Cleveland so neither of these teams have had an extra day to rest. As it stands now, the Hornets would earn the final spot in the postseason if it started today, while the Heat are just a notch above them at 7th in the Eastern Conference. If these two teams have anything in common it’s their resiliency. They’re well-coached, savvy, and they always put in max-effort. Miami has the edge in defensive efficiency while the Hornets have a slight edge in offensive efficiency and points per game. Charlotte is at home and they’ve been injected with that facilitating, young LaMelo energy, so I simply can’t take the Heat to cover in this spot. I’m on a fired-up Charlotte unit.
Celtics +1 (-110), 1 unit: Both of these teams are surging but I like the Celtics, who seem to be finally finding a rhythm on offense (Tatum’s 60 point game didn’t hurt), to score the win at home here. The Blazers are in the middle of a brutal road trip and they travel to Atlanta tomorrow night. The Celtics will get a solid and rare 3 days of rest after today’s game. Two volatile teams but, advantage Boston.
Knicks/Rockets under 217.5 (-110), 1.5 units: No one except the Suns, who we think may the best team in the NBA right now, has been able to stop the Knicks lately. And very few teams have been able to overcome New York’s stifling defense. The Knicks are 1st in the NBA in points allowed per game (104.7) and they’ve been top 5 in defensive efficiency all year. In a game like this, where the books expect some margin with NY favored by over 10 points, I don’t see how the score can possibly get very high. While Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and other Knicks should have no trouble scoring, they should also have no angst or drive to push the tempo in this contest. New York should be able to control this game from start to finish (knocks on wood) against a Rockets team that couldn’t muster more than 87 points in their last matchup against Golden State. Even against bad defenses the Rocket don’t take advantage. Houston ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and they’re 24th in ppg– with so little to play for and with how slow the Knicks play (they’re second only to Miami as the slowest team in the association), I don’t see this total going over 210.
Suns first half -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: In case you haven’t noticed, the Suns are a really good ATS team. In fact, they’ve led the NBA for most of the regular season in various ATS categories. Facing an inept OKC team that’s clearly throwing in the towel on the season, I’ll take the Suns in the first half to get way ahead. Phoenix doesn’t want to lose their position (now sitting at 1st) in the Western Conference and while they may put on the breaks toward the end of the game, it should be pedal-to-the-medal in the first 24 minutes.
MLB Picks and Predictions – May 2, 2021
Not a great day in baseball betting last night but we still have a winning record overall this week. I see a lot of value out there Sunday so this article will have more picks but a little less meat in between. Let’s get to it:
Tigers first five +0.5 (+135), 1 unit: Will I ever learn? Maybe not. The Tigers should have hit this bet yesterday, which I gave to my premium customers, only to blow a bases-loaded opportunity in the top of the 5th and then letting NYY get ahead with some horrible errors at the bottom of the same inning. Today I’ll keep fading Kluber (4.15 ERA over 21.2 innings) until he proves he’s back in true form.
Marlins/Nats under 3.5 (-120), 1.5 units: A little extra juice here but I say it’s worth it. Miami’s bats have been ice cold at Nationals Park, but at least the Marlins have Trevor Rogers (1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 28 innings) to come to their aid. Max Scherzer (3.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 30 innings) is surely due for some redemption after that horrible showing against Toronto. I expect both pitchers to command well in the early going and keep this halfway total under.
Reds (-140), 1.4 units: I’ll side with the better home team and a much more consistent offense behind Tyler Mahle (1.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 25.2 innings) here. The Cubs eked out a win yesterday thanks to a gutsy performance from their bullpen, but it won’t take a lot of offense to get a W today at Great American Ballpark with Mahle behind the mound. The Cubs offense has improved a bit, but they’re still nothing to ride home about.
Astros (-130), 2 units: Rich Hill (7.25 ERA over 22.1 innings) is better than what he’s showing and Christian Javier (0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP over 20.2 innings) may not be this good, but I still like Houston in this spot. The Rays are in a funk and Houston looks like the team we saw at the start of the season. I’ll ride it until shown otherwise.
Twins -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: I thought Minnesota would find their bats and Danny Duffy would take a step back yesterday but that certainly didn’t happen. This is a better spot to get a run-line in on a Minnesota team due for some positive regression on offense facing the very hittable Brad Keller (9.00 ERA over 18 innings pitched). Jose Berrios (3.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 26.2 innings) has looked solid thus far, showing 0 signs of decreased velocity on his fastball and allowing very few homeruns (0.34 per 9 innings). I like this spot for a little Minnesota revenge and to take the series win at home.
Athletics first five -1.5 (+125), 1.5 units: It felt like if that game had a few more innings yesterday, Oakland would have got the win. That being said, the Orioles are a solid team and I don’t think they’ll be out of the playoff picture as the season wanes on. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman (5.22 ERA, 1.58 WHIP over 25.1 innings) is probably their most hittable starter and with Sean Manaea (2.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 28.2 innings) on the mound for Oakland, I like the Athletics’ momentum to leak into today’s game and give the home team an early lead by margin.
Angels -1.5 (+105), 1.5 units and Angels/Mariners over 8 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. The Angels are top 5 in the majors in a ton of offensive categories right now (and 1st in batting average, slugging percentage and hits per game) and I expect some positive regression from Dylan Bundy (4.20 ERA over 30 innings). The 28 year old is getting a bit over-utilized and he’s allowed a few too many homeruns thus far. The total bet kind of hedges the Angels run-line but I can easily see both happening. The Mariners’ Justus Sheffield (5.23 ERA over 22 innings) and the very average Seattle bullpen are nothing to fear for those white-hot LAA bats, nor will they stifle Angels’ superstar Mike Trout, who may be playing his best baseball to date.
