This will be the second game of a four-game set between the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals on Friday night. The Royals took game one by a score of 6-5 on Thursday night. Opening Day starter Brad Keller will get the ball for Kansas City. Keller, who posted good numbers from 2018-2020, is having the worst season of his career with a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 50.2 innings pitched. Matt Shoemaker gets the nod for the Twins and has been struggling this season with a 5.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 10 starts. However, he has an impressive 1.19 WHIP on the road! Minnesota is averaging 4.28 runs per game on the road and rank 3rd in wOBA vs righties on the road while scoring 2.88 runs in the first 5 innings. Who knows what could happen if we involve these bullpens, which both rank in the bottom 3rd of the league. I see Shoemaker keeping the Twins in this game and outscoring the Royals in the first 5 innings.
A nice 2-1 day yesterday and we’re 8-5 in MLB free plays this week. Happy Friday!
Indians win (-113), 2 units: The Cleveland Indians bring their services to the town of Baltimore today as the Orioles recently, finally, got off the schneid with some nice wins over Minnesota. It’s a battle of young promising pitchers today as Baltimore’s Keegan Akin, a 2nd year starter who did just okay in his 2020 majors debut, takes on big man Jean Carlos Mejia, the 24 year old Dominican righty who’s been tearing up the minors. He’ll get his first shot at earning a long-term stay in the majors this year. Mejia, in just 5 short innings in 2021, has looked the part. Back in 2019, FanGraphs noted that, “(Mejia) showed the ability to overpower hitters and had a K-BB of 36-9 with a strong ground-ball rate. He has the potential for three above-average offerings, including a 92-95 mph fastball. Standing 6-4, he has the frame to develop into an innings-eating, mid-rotation arm.” Mejia appears to be a pitcher I want to play on and this is a good spot to do it.
Akin has potential but his profile in the minors and in his brief stints in the majors suggests he doesn’t have the pedigree to notch any real staying power in a rotation. The Indians bats have found their groove recently and although the O’s recent victories against the Twins were a good look after a long slump, Cleveland has the pitching and players to out-class Baltimore. I expect “The Land” to get a W today in the first game of this series.
Rays win (-135), 1.5 units: The Rays broke out of their slump against the Yankees and secured a win to take a 8-5 lead on their divisional rival, which bodes well for their confidence and attitude heading into Friday. Surprisingly, the Rays haven’t performed as well against the bottom dwelling AL West Rangers this year. After a game one win against Texas, Tampa fell in 3 straight contests in their first series; all were by margin. One of those losses had Josh Fleming (2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 45.1 innings) on the mound, Tampa’s starter today, but the previous let-down certainly wasn’t his fault. Fleming handled himself well against the Rangers, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run over 5.1 innings in his first start of the season. Thanks to a big 7th inning with Chris Mazza pitching in relief for Tampa, the Rangers snagged that game 5-1 back in mid-April. I feel better about the Rays’ chances today. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 9 brilliant innings against the Yankees yesterday and spared Tampa’s bullpen from any time on the dirt. Kyle Gibson (2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 60.1 innings) has been Texas’ most steady pitcher this season but he’s due for some negative regression. The 33 year old’s solid numbers usually don’t hold up as the season progresses, which is especially true now that he’s beyond his prime. Gibson’s 3.23 FIP and 4.02 xFIP, along with a decreasing LOB rate (79.9%), suggest that he’s due for some setbacks in the near-future. I like the Rays in a good spot after a nice win to capitalize on a Rangers’ team that can’t find a W in their last 9 games.
Dodgers win (-130), 1.5 units: May I go on a brief rant? Thanks. We lose a lot of money in sports betting because of our internal biases. Unless you’re a fan, franchises like the Lakers, Chiefs, Patriots, Yankees, Dodgers, and other elite teams of recent memory tend to get the shaft from most of us when we peruse our daily betting slates. This is also true of superstar athletes in solo sports like tennis, boxing and MMA. Who wants to bet on Floyd Mayweather? Who actually wants to take Serena for the 1000th time to win a tournament? Let’s shoot for the value picks, right? Let’s go for the underdogs.
Most of us have an underdog mentality because we’re underdogs in life. Unless you’re born into the 1% of American’s absurdly wealthy, the majority of sports bettors are trying to get an extra buck to further support their dreams of success. This is a perpetual and often haunting reality in a dog-eat-dog world. And it has us ignoring opportunity. Why am I making this point? Because many of us are constantly losing money we could gain if we could destroy these mental biases and just wager where based on value, even if it means betting on those heavyweight teams. Case in point, the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
They may not win Friday, this is no “I guarantee” speech, but I think most people would agree that the Dodgers are a better ballclub than the Atlanta Braves. That’s saying a lot considering how loaded Atlanta is on offense and especially with their recent additions on the mound. A team like LAD, who was projected to win 102.5 games this year, is easy to discount as we look for + money angles throughout this volatile MLB season. I think today is a good spot for them and, because they’re facing a fellow elite, we’re getting a little discount on the wager.
Julio Urias (3.61 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 3.24 xFIP over 67.1 innings) has a profile very similar to Ian Anderson (3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 55 innings). The difference is Urias’ numbers are a little inflated after his poor showing last time out against San Francisco. Maybe Urias lets down his guard when he’s not as intimidated or cautious about an opponent, but the Giants scored an uncharacteristic 11 runs against the Dodgers in late May, 7 of which came at the permission of Urias. Allowing 11 hits and a homerun over 5 innings in his last start, the 24 year old leftie will look to reset his command today. The Braves are a talented offense but Freeman still hasn’t caught fire and the loss of Ozuna isn’t going away any time soon. When they face above-average pitching, the Braves can really get in trouble. I trust the Dodgers and a fired up Urias to get the job done today.
Angels win (-175), 1.75 units: The Angels bats’ seem to have only two modes of operation: white hot or ice cold. Of course the absence of Mike Trout recently doesn’t help but still, this is an offense that should be putting up more consistent numbers on a more consistent basis. But that’s okay– tonight the Angels get the Shohei Ohtani boost. Ya know, the “I’m the dude who leads my team in homeruns and batting average, and oh yea that’s right I’m also a pretty elite pitcher this year” kind of boost. The 26 year old phenom from Japan has a 2.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. One day after an embarrassing let-down loss at home against their AL west foe, one who actually boasts a better record than the home team, the Angels are looking for redemption against Seattle tonight and I love the boost Ohtani gives them. Right hander Robert Dugger (6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 17.1 innings), the 25 year old three year starter who’s struggled to find his footing in the majors, seems to be regressing again in 2021. I trust Ohtani and positive regression from LAA’s lineup. Go Halos!
We have a great show for you today! Sig @SigLasVegas from Wagertalk.com is back to discuss the Belmont Stakes! First, Kiev discusses a little college football with a season win total that he thinks might have some value. Next, Sig come on and the guys get right into the whole Bob Baffert saga. Why was he suspended from this race and from Churchill downs for the next two years? What needs to happen in horse racing? Then, the guys get into the Belmont Stakes. Which horses are bred for this long distance race? Which horses are we tossing off of our tickets? Are there any longshots? How will we be playing this race? Finally, Kiev talks a little UFC fight night with two fights and two plays for your weekend of sports wagering fun!
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Too bad Kawhi Leonard had an off night (7-19 from the field, 1-7 from beyond the arc) or we might’ve had a 4-0 night with that Doncic/Kawhi player prop. Ah well, 3-1 nights seem to be a pattern for me and how can I complain? 75% ain’t a bad thing. Oh and we’re 25-12 over the last 11 days… in the words of Lloyd Christmas: I like it a lot! Onto Thursday and the always entertaining Western Conference series!
Parlay, Blazers win 1st QTR and 1st QTR over 58.5 (1 unit to win 1.91 units), Lillard over 34.5 points (-105), 1.5 units and Blazers 1st Half -3 (-105), 1.5 units: All separate bets. Can you tell I like Portland early? I don’t want to be a broken record here so I won’t get into all the reasons why I think Denver is the better team. I like them to win this series and you can read my past articles on why for more details. That being said, regardless of how good the Nuggets play tonight, what more can we say about the enigma that is Damian Lillard? I don’t think we can say he’s the “best clutch shooter of all time” but shit, he has to be in the top 5. When Portland is down one possession and they need a three, Dame-time is damn near automatic. He seemed tired and frustrated after game 5 but I have little doubt that he’ll show up big time at home tonight. No point total seems high enough these days for Lillard, especially with how dependent the Blazers are on their star rising to the occasion time and time again.
Portland didn’t get off to a hot start in Tuesday’s game but they found a way to climb their way back into the contest. Two overtimes and one deflating loss later, the Blazers head back home in a must-win situation to keep their title hopes alive. In the 2 games where Portland won, the Blazers also won the first quarter by margins of 8 and 5 points. In the 3 games they lost, the Nuggets won the first quarter by margins of 6, 9, and 13. Apparently the first 12 minutes really matters. The Nuggets and Blazers are similar in while they don’t play incredibly fast (they rank near the bottom in pace this postseason), they score a ton of points. That’s because both offenses are highly efficient from the field, typically, and they have a plethora of great shooting talent. If either of these offenses take the early lead, their chances of sustaining productive offense and maintaining a lead are probably higher than most teams (last night was the exception of course, where Denver allowed Portland to come back from a 20+ point deficit, though they still ended up winning).
I expect Portland to come out very fired up after dropping that last game. They’re at home and this is a team, led by the moxie of Damian Lillard, that’s been in spots like this before. They’ve also proven their resiliency. For the full game, the Blazers at -5 feels a little too hefty for me, and lord knows Denver is capable of closing the gap, but a first quarter and first half win is much more comfortable. I’m glad this game will be televised on TNT and not overlapped by PHX/LAL– the public deserves to watch this entertaining series.
Lean, Lakers win (-135) and Lebron James over 29.5 points (-120), 2 units: Your cookie-cutter Vegas “OG bettor” might be pissed off when he/she keeps seeing my prop bets but it’s a new age of sports betting and there’s opportunity abound! The entertaining and unpredictable Lakers/Suns series leads us to game 6 where the embattled 2020 champions look to rediscover their confidence tonight, at home, against a Suns team that’s been mighty impressive in the last two matchups. Naturally you think I would ride Phoenix into this contest and drop a few units on it, right? I mean they’re living up to their name– the Suns are RED HOT right now.
Naa, no can do. I realize the Lakers looked horrific Tuesday night (a 30 point deficit for nearly 3 quarters? YIKES) but we can’t take small sample sizes and use that to wager our money. That’s an easy way to lose long term in this game. Plus, it’s a damn-near guarantee (damn-near, which is not a guarantee, just to clarify) that the Lakers’ players will perform better tonight. Literally no one on LAL’s roster looked good Tuesday. Schroder was 0-9 from the field for a big goose egg. Drummond only had 7 points in Anthony Davis’ absence. Caldwell-Pope? 0 points. Lebron? 9-19 and a -24 point differential. Morris? 4 points. I could go on and on. Kyle Kuzma might’ve been their best player 2 nights ago (LOL x 10).
Anthony Davis is officially a game-time decision tonight, which tells me that either he won’t play or if he does play, he’ll be far from 100%. To me that means one thing– the Lakers absolutely need Lebron to put in a huge performance if they have any shot at winning. In a game with a ton of garbage time on Tuesday night, Lebron still managed to score 24 points. With the media and other NBA stars calling on King James to be more aggressive and take the team on his shoulders, something he probably can’t do in the long term but could certainly can do tonight, I expect a more stone cold and confident Lebron. Over 29.5 points in a game this crucial? I love that prop.
With or without Anthony Davis, the Lakers are in a great spot to muster a win. Everyone, not just Lebron, can certainly play much better. While I’ll only lean LAL, I would caution bettors out there who want to lay heavy units on Phoenix. This is a spot where, if you like the Suns, it’s probably best to proceed with caution. This is still the playoffs, this is still a Lebron-led team, they’re at home, and they just suffered one of the more embarrassing losses in NBA playoff history. The narrative will look different tonight.
Two games were cancelled and the other two bets I had were losers yesterday– not my best showing– but sometimes how’s how the cookie crumbles. Dusting myself off and still over .500 for this wild early MLB season, we move onto Thursday’s picks:
Nationals win (+125), 1 unit: I might be an idiot for playing on Washington here for several reasons. Atlanta is due for some positive regression on all sides: their bats are cold, their rotation and bullpen is volatile and inconsistent, and they’ve lost 4 out of their last 5 games. They’re also at home in a good spot against a pitcher I usually like to fade in Patrick Corbin (6.23 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 52 innings). His velocity isn’t terrible but he’s allowing way too much hard contact and has very little command. His sinking LOB rate (67%) and 24.4% HR/flyball ratio speak to that, although he’s surely had some really solid outings. Today the Braves will send youngster Tucker Davidson to the mound, who will get his second start of the season. With Ozuna likely out for the year and mounting issues on the team, it feels like Atlanta is in panic-mode a bit and I can’t trust the young arm, even if he’s shown some potential, against these Nats-bats that look very comfortable on the road. I’m on the away team to snag another win at Truist Park.
Rays first 5 +0.5 (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take another shot at + money here. The Rays have been untypically owned by the Yankees in their latest series but the games have been close. Ryan Yarborough (4.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.20 FIP, 4.11 xFIP over 57 innings) has had an up and down start to 2021 but I’d say he’s due for some positive regression. His LOB rate (65.3%) and HR/9 innings rate (1.26) is atypical and should improve. Gerrit Cole (1.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 70.2 innings) is as dominant as ever but he’s been used a ton and Tampa probably wants this game more than New York. The Rays are 7-5 against the Yankees this year but if they fall again today they lose more distance between them and their ever-threatening foe. I’m on Yarborough to command beyond his 2021 average in the first 5 and for this score to either be tied or even better, Tampa takes an early lead.
White Sox -1.5 (even), 1.5 units: The Tigers have been awfully sneaky lately, winners of 4 out of their last 5 and against good teams in NYY and Milwaukee. Unfortunately I think the climb stops here. Like we see so often in other sports, there’s a real disparity between elite teams and teams that are simply surging for a period of time. I really like what Detroit and their rotation has done lately, but an interdivisional matchup like this doesn’t allow the same maneuvering. The AL Central leading Chicago White Sox and their superb lineup are due for some positive regression after two stinkers against Cleveland this week. Lance Lynn (1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 52.2 innings) has been exceptional this season. His xFIP (3.98) concerns me a little but his ability to control the game and prevent hard contact (0.68 HR/9 innings, 6.3% HR/flyball ratio) is tremendous. I don’t see him having any issue against, let’s face it, still a well below-average Detroit lineup. The Tigers will bring out Casey Mize (3.28 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over 57.2 innings), who’s played well this year in big spots, but typically he doesn’t perform as well against the White Sox. Chicago is at home and looking for some familiar food to feast on– I think this is a big win for the AL Central’s best club.
What a slate of games we have today. The Canadians who are fresh off a Game 7 win, travel to Winnipeg to take on the Jets. Out West, we have Vegas looking for redemption after a Game 1 beat down by the Avalanche.
Montreal Canadians (+115) @ Winnipeg Jets (-135)
The Canadians battled back to win three straight games to overtake the Leafs in Round 1. Winnipeg had an easier road in Round 1, sweeping the Oilers in four straight. However, the last of three of those games did go to overtime. The Jets clearly have the initial advantage in rest as they’ve had more days off between series.
Connor Hellebuyck and Carey Price were both the major story lines for their squads in the first round. Connor Hellebuyck struggled against the Oilers all season and put all that behind him. He starts this series with the second best GSAx of +7.5 in the playoffs. Carey Price has a slightly worse GSAx of +6.8 but was still unbelievable for the Habs, specifically in Game 7.
The Jets enter this Series as the better team analytically leading the Canadians in xGF and high danger scoring chances. Both of these teams were more physical than their opponents in the first series, which was a major factor in advancing. Montreal cant push the Jets around like the did the Maple Leafs, which I believe will give them some issues. The Jets and Habs both have one of the lowest Goals % and xGoals %. Given the low scoring games and goalie play, I like Game 1 to stay under the total of 5.5.
Picks: Under 5.5 (-135)
Vegas Golden Knights (+165) @ Colorado Avalanche (-185)
Colorado has clearly been the best team all season, and now in the post season. The odds reflect that as well, as they are currently the leaders at +140 to win the Stanley Cup. The Avalanche dominated the Knights on the scoreboard in the series opener winning 7-1. I say on the scoreboard, because the Avalanche only had a 2.63 to 2.39 expected goal advantage.
The difference in Game 1 was the goaltending, specifically Vegas. I understand that you’d want to rest Fleury in Game 1 after a long series and try to get Lehner into the playoffs but, he clearly was not ready for what the Av’s threw his way. Lehner had a -4.37 GSAx in the Series opener compared to Fleury’s +3.2 GSAx throughout the playoffs. I understand that the sample size is different and so were the opponents but that’s a drastic difference that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Marc Andre Fleury, a 2021 Vezina Trophy Finalist, has been confirmed the starter for Game 2 so that should help the Knights. Philipp Grubauer who is also a 2021 Vezina Trophy Finalist, is the expected starter for Colorado. Grubauer had a +1.39 GSAx in Game 1, which is on par for him as he has a +1.30 GSAx overall for the playoffs.
This is a tough game as Vegas ml does offer some value but based on Colorado’s play, it’s difficult not to back them. Colorado has the best Goals % and Goal Differential in the playoffs so far. Game 2 should be closer as the Av’s clearly had the fresher legs in Game 1. Even with that being said, Colorado is the better team and should win Game 2 as well.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche in Regulation -0.5 (-135)
Just a cool 22-11 record over the last 10 days of NBA picks and we cruise to Wednesday, with four games and plenty to discuss from a gambling perspective. Let’s get it!
Wizards/76ers over 229 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Wizards +6.5 Remember what happened when Embiid exited game four? Me too– the Wizards looked totally different (and much more capable). Joel’s injury has more implications than simply his scoring contributions. While his absence might disable Philadelphia from thriving on the offensive end, the 76ers also suffer from a really shallow front court without their star. The wingspan and sheer size of Embiid is enough to scare away most infiltrating shooters. In game four, the Wizards out-scored the Sixers 48-40 in the paint and 21-7 in fast break points. This is a big reason why I lean Washington tonight and why I love the over. Embiid’s absence and the lack of Philly’s front court size/prowess gives the Wizards an extra gear when running their offense. Instead of the game slowing down because Embiid is posting up defenders or guarding the rim, the hardwood feels much bigger and much more forgiving. Dwight Howard can help but he’s not the youthful “Superman” we once knew.
This is a simple handicap and the over is the right side more often than it is wrong when these two teams face. The 76ers and Wizards still lead the playoffs in tempo and unless Doc Rivers make some sort of major adjustment, Philadelphia will look to out-run and out-score Washington while the Wizards will try and do the same. Beal and Westbrook have an inkling of hope now with Embiid out so look for them to attack and set the pace early. I’m on the over again tonight.
Hawks win (even), 2 units: This is a tough bet but it’s mind over heart. As this series trudges on, it’s become more and more apparent who the better team is. The Knicks are certainly the more popular team and it feels like we’ve all been riding this exciting wave of amplified energy emanating out of Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are to the NBA what the Cowboys are to the NFL– everyone kinda wants them to win… well, maybe not everyone, but the sport is better when they’re at least competitive. That same energy is only multiplied when you watch New York. The Knicks are such an easy team to get behind. They’re tough, defensively minded, no ego is too big and it’s all about team basketball. And more importantly, they’re not nonchalant and apathetic like so many of today’s stars (cough, cough, Ben Simmons, cough).
It reminds me of my NY Giants back in 2011. Led by Eli Manning, who still isn’t considered “elite” after two Super Bowl MVPs (which I agree with, by the way), the Giants were a blue-collar gritty team that took the NFC by surprise. They then went head to head with the Patriots, who were 18-0, in the game of games. As the story goes, New York played well over their head, stifled the historically good New England offense led by Tom Brady, and went on to win their second title in 4 years. Just like the Knicks in game two, the Giants were capable of beating the Patriots in one game. But does anyone think the Giants would have survived a 7 game series with New England? The answer to that is a loud and clear hell no. We all know the Patriots were the better team.
The Hawks aren’t the 2021 NBA version of the 2011 Patriots, but they’re very talented. Sure the series is back at MSG and I’m sure it’ll be just as electric as last time. I don’t think it’ll matter. Trae Young may actually play better under the pressure and noise of an arena like MSG (that was one of Kobe’s trademark traits) and his teammates tend to follow his energy. The Knicks rarely blow teams out and the Hawks rarely get annihilated so, best case scenario for New York: this is a back and forth, close game into the fourth quarter. If that’s true, which roster do you trust to land shots in big moments? I trust Atlanta by a mile. No one wants this series to end but this isn’t a fairytale. The Hawks are leading this series 3-1 for a reason. They’re better, and they’ll put an exclamation point on that tonight.
Grizzlies/Jazz bet: DM me on Twitter to get my free premium pick on this contest.
Luka and Kawhi to both score over 30 points (+235), 1 unit: Much to the chagrin of your traditional sports bettor, I’ll choose a prop instead of a side in this game tonight. This is a huge game five for both of these franchises and I’m confident it’ll rest on the able shoulders of Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic. Luka is battling some weird neck injury, that’s not ideal, but there’s a 0% chance he sits tonight.
The Clippers had a dominant all-around performance in game four to tie up this series. Luka had a subpar shooting night, going only 9-24 from the field, but he still managed to get 19 of the Mavericks’ 81 points. That’s nearly a 25% market share of Dallas’ offense and I expect the same tonight, albeit with more overall points for the away team. Doncic’s point totals through 4 games against LAC: 31, 39, 44, and 19. Not only do I love the Slovenian star to go over 30 points tonight, I think he may shatter that ceiling. Does the neck injury scare me? Sure, a little. But Luka has never been overly flashy or one of these players that contorts his body to make buckets. He’s a straight-ahead cerebral shooter and I’m sure with today’s physical therapy, he’ll feel nearly 100% by game time.
On the other end of the court, Kawhi Leonard is vying for the best basketball player in the world spot. Scoring 26, 41, 36 and 29 points through 4 games, snagging team highs in rebounds in half of those contests and playing shut-down defense, it’s hard to find a better all-around star when Kawhi is determined. At home and with a newly paved path to win this series after tying it up 3 nights ago, I expect a dominant Leonard tonight. Who’s going to stop him? It’s obvious the Mavericks can’t.
I lean Dallas in this contest at +7.5 but the truth is, this has been a volatile matchup with seemingly different teams emerging every time they take the floor. Two of the only things I can count on in this series are great performances from Luka and Kawhi. For a win that would more than double our money, I love this bet.
