Gonna make a public play here so tail with your own risk. Did you happen to catch that no no last night? Miley was throwing darts and Cleveland was embarrassed at home. This no hitter is somewhat surprising but Cleveland also was one of the worst batting teams last year with only slight improvement ranking 26th this year. The Indians need to regroup and I think that this is the spot where they come alive. Both of these pitchers Castillo and Civale are pretty close to equal with Lifetime FIPs around 3.8 ish. The Bullpen is where this game might be won. Cincinnati has the 3rd worst bullpen FIP in baseball at 4.88 while Cleveland’s sits around 3.8. The Tribe’s best reliever James Karinchak should be available after resting yesterday. The Reds certainly have the better bats but they are the number 1 team in batting average with RISP (runners in scoring position) so regression is in order at some point being that they are 7th in batting average and 9th in WRC+. I won’t be rushing to back Cinci too soon. The situation that goes against the Indians according to Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk via Killersports.com is that since 2004, teams that just got no hit are usually bad bets in General the next game at 40% 22-33, but at home these teams are 13-15 so I think that this situation somewhat bucks that trend to null. I think the Land is the play here and let’s see if they can redeem themselves.
Cleveland -122 – 2 stars
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas city +143 O/U 9
Do you guys like simple and easy handicaps or do you like reading novels? The White Sox are number 1 in the league against lefties at a massive 137 WRC+. Lance Lynn is on the helm for the Sox and he has a nice 2.27 FIP while Daniel Lynch for the Royals is as green as the fake grass in my front yard. The Sox have a much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to the Royals 25th.
As usual it’s a mega card on Saturday so we’ll do this lightning style just like last time– shorter write-ups, more opportunities, more picks. Those Orioles bats got real quiet last night but we still had a winning night at 2-1 in MLB bets overall. Onto Saturday!
Nats/Yankees under 4 in first 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Corey Kluber (3.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 29.2 innings) may be returning to his old form. He’s looked fantastic in his last 2 starts, allowing only 1 run over his last 14.2 innings at the mound. You could say the same thing for Max Scherzer (2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 39 innings), who wiped the floor with the Marlins in his last start, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over a full 9 innings. He also had 9 strikeouts. Scherzer needed that after a bad look against the Blue Jays and he’ll look to bring that same heat into the Bronx. In the first 5, I trust that these long-time aces can keep scoring low until the later innings.
Cardinals -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: It was another solid performance by Flaherty (allowing only 3 hits in 7 innings) as the Cardinals blanked the Rockies in game 1 and got us our first win Friday night. Colorado may be in for a long painful affair at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals bats looked ready to rock behind a much more formidable rotation than what the Rockies can offer. I don’t see much changing throughout this series. Carlos Martinez (3.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP over 36.1 innings) has been solid for St. Louis and after rough showings in his first 2 starts, he’s displayed a very steady and consistent command. Chi Chi Gonzalez (4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 24.2 innings) gets the nod for Colorado and he’s been regressing a bit as the young season trudges on. In his last 2 starts, he’s permitted 7 runs and 12 hits in just over 9 innings. I’ll take the home team for another win by margin. They’re the better team by a mile and it’ll show again Saturday.
Giants win (+125), 1 unit and Game under 7 (-105), 1 unit: Two separate bets. I love the Giants in series like this. Excellent pitching from DeSclafani and a bullpen that held up just enough gave San Francisco the edge in game 1 against their rival Padres. Joe Musgrove (2.38 ERA, 0.74 WHIP over 34 innings) takes on Kevin Gausman (2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 39.2 innings) today as two more elite pitchers vow to play deep into this contest and keep the game low scoring. Something about that NorCal air seems to agree with the hometown Giants– they’re 11-3 this year at home; they always seem to muster just enough offense to edge out good teams like San Diego. This is another value play on San Francisco and I have to side with the under.
Tigers first 5 (+150), 1 unit: This is good value on Detroit. The Tigers are not a good team and they’ve lost 8 of their last 9 contests, but they are at home against a hittable pitcher and I don’t hate what I’ve seen from Jose Urena (3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 35.2 innings). Urena has allowed 2 runs in every game he’s started so far, which isn’t bad considering he averages 7 innings per game and hasn’t allowed a single homerun. Minnesota loves to live and die by big slugs so that’s a good thing for Detroit’s chances, at least earlier in the contest. Jose Berrios (3.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings) hasn’t impressed me this year and recently he’s looked worse, allowing 11 hits and 6 runs in his last 2 starts. Positive regression may be coming for Berrios, but this is as good a spot as any for the Tigers to take advantage of a pitching matchup where there’s not significant disparity in talent. How do you win money in sports betting? By finding value and proper unit allocation. Hence, I’m only betting 1 unit here since Minnesota is clearly the better team, but the Tigers have built-in value and it would pay handsomely.
Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-110), 2 units: Is Garrett Richards (4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.99 FIP over 28.2 innings) the Red Sox most confusing starter? Perhaps. He looked excellent in moments this year and very vulnerable in others. It’s hard to get a grasp on the 10 year starter at this point in his career; at 32 he could either be in his prime or starting to feel the weight of 800+ major league innings. I’ll bet that he’s hittable. In two starts against the Orioles earlier this year Richards allowed 10 hits, 8 earned runs and 2 homers. Baltimore’s bats should regain some confidence today. The Orioles are starting the young leftie Zac Lowther (25 years old, 92 mph fastball) Saturday, who in 1 inning looked pretty darn crisp against the Athletics. He played well in the minors but we don’t know too much else about Lowther. This is a big test today against arguably the best offense in baseball (Boston is 1st in runs per game, batting average, hits per game, and slugging percentage). I think there’s definitely value on Baltimore again today, but Boston is playing well so I’ll save my money and won’t pick a side. Instead I’ll lay 2 units on this total soaring over 9 runs.
Astros -1.5 (+145), 1.5 units: This feels like the time to start backing Houston again. The Blue Jays have played okay recently but they seem to always stutter when they’re at a disadvantage on the mound. There’s a clear disadvantage today. In 5 starts and 25.2 innings, young Christian Javier (1.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.53 FIP, 93.2 mph fastball) looks like he’s ready to remain a part of the Astros rotation. He’s had 3 games without giving up a run, he’s allowing only 0.35 HR/9 innings, and after a mediocre showing last time out against the Rays he’ll be even more motivated to impose his will against Toronto. If Houston is able to keep their bats even a little warm, I don’t see Steven Matz (4.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 32 innings) holding up. The value is on the Astros by margin.
This game should be a walk in the ballpark for the Cardinals. Colorado has Austin Gomber on the helm who previously played for the Cardinals but is just sporting 5.9 ERA with a 4.65 FIP. The Rockies are 2nd to last in WRC+ at 82 and also 2nd to last in Bullpen FIP of 4.96. Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Cardinals boasting a 3.28 FIP over 36 innings. The Cardinals have a pretty average hitting and bullpen but I like them coming off of 2 losses here and after a day of rest.
2-2 day in MLB Thursday and we tend to be hitting at 50% a lot lately. Are we still in the black? Yes. That’s what good unit allocation is all about. But let’s get a winning day, shall we (in my defense, I do take a lot of dogs where others wouldn’t, you’re welcome)?! There’s a ton going on at the Farley house today so this will be a short article because of that and because I don’t see quite as much value on the card. Onto my TGIF picks!
Cardinals -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Cardinals remain at Busch Stadium and besides a blip against the Nationals in his 3rd start, Jack Flaherty (3.41 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.02 WHIP over 34.1 innings) has looked like himself so far, holding a steady command on the mound, displaying an exceptional velocity and limiting big hits. I don’t like Colorado as much away from Coors Field and Austin Gomber (5.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 29 innings), while serviceable, doesn’t scare me away at all. Gomber was formally associated with St. Louis both in the minors and as a one year starter, so I’m sure he’ll want to do well, but the Cardinals bats are due for some redemption after a few bad looks against the Mets. I’ll take St. Louis by margin in a good spot.
Orioles over 4 runs (+125), 2 units: Last time Baltimore was at bat they faced Seattle’s leftie Yusei Kikuchi and we all know how that game went. Yes yes, our boy John Means threw the perfect game and we love to see that, but the Orioles bats also had their way with Kikuchi. They usually do against lefties. They were good for 8 hits and 6 runs, steadily building a lead throughout the contest. Tonight the Orioles oppose Eduardo Rodriguez (4.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 28 innings), the left-handed 28 year old starter who’s looked very subpar in 2021, allowing plenty of hits and runs all 5 times he hit the mound. The Red Sox could easily out-hit the Orioles tonight, but I’m willing to bet (as you can tell) that the O’s will get theirs too. This might be delayed due to rain but whenever it happens, I love the Orioles to score against Rodriguez.
Giants win (+125), 1.5 units: Anthony DeSclafani (2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 36 innings) and the Giants are at home and take on Blake Snell (3.51 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 25.2 innings) and the Padres Friday night, and this is a nice revenge spot for DeSclafani. The 31 year old looks like he’s settled into his prime in 2021 with some really impressive outings over 5 starts. Last week he was handed a loss after allowing 3 hits/runs over 6 innings against this same Padres team, at San Diego, but I think the result will be different today. The Giants just suffered two bad losses (we were on top of that) at Coors and dropped their second series in a row. The Padres enjoyed a win against the Pirates at home and now travel back to the Golden Gate city to face their divisional foe. Nearly tied at the top of the NL West, this should be a good game featuring two solid pitchers. I expect some positive regression for Snell, who hasn’t looked great after 5 starts, but the spot and team-motivation favors the Giants for me. Even in a win, nothing really impressed me about the Padres’ domination of Pittsburgh. The Giants need to get right. For that reason, at this value, I’ll go with the dog.
Colorado Avalanche players celebrate a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings in an NHL hockey game Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
Hi guys! My name is Patrick and I’ll be the new NHL Writer for TheOddsBreakers. The NHL season is winding down and with only a few games left for each team (besides Vancouver) the playoffs are starting to take shape. Today’s slate of games features a few interesting matchups, so lets break those games down.
Dallas Stars (+133) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-157)
The Dallas Stars travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning with hopes of keeping their playoff chances alive. The Lightning have secured their spot in the playoffs but are in a battle of their own against the Hurricanes for first place in the Central Division.
The Stars enter this game on a 0-5 streak in their last 5 while Tampa Bay are red hot. The line for the Lighting is the shortest it’s been vs Dallas all year averaging -165 in previous matchups. The Bolts are expected to start A. Vasilevskiy who has a 6-1 record and 1.42 GAA vs the Stars this year. Dallas is expected to start Anton Khudobin who has not played well vs Tampa going 0-3 with a 3.04 GAA.
The Lightning have been dominate at home all season going 21-6. They are facing a Dallas team who’s on the ropes and has struggled on the road. The short line does worry me a bit, but I still think the Bolts handle the Stars.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-157), Risk 1.57 Units
Colorado Avalanche (-286) @ Los Angeles Kings (+235)
The Los Angeles Kings enter this game a record of 21-24-6 and their payoff chances on life support. The Av’s on the other hand, are in a battle for first in the Western Division with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The line for this game opened up around -260 for the Avalanche and has now moved to -290. In the previous two matchups, the line for the Avalanche closed at an average -230. Colorado is expected to start P. Grubauer who has a record of 27-9-1 with a 2.03 GAA and .920 SV%. When facing the Kings this season Grubauer is 3-0 with a 1.00 GAA. The Kings are expected to start C. Peterson who is 0-3 against the Avalanche giving up an average of 2.37 goals in those games.
Looking at this game, the one thing stands out to me is that when Colorado loses to an underdog with a moneyline of +200 or greater they have usually covered the puckline in the next game. The Avalanche dominate the Kings when it comes to comes to most of the basic categories including GPP, SPG, and PP%. In addition to basic stats, Colorado leads the league in xGF, Corsi %, and Fenwick %. With the Avalanche covering the puckline in the previous two matchups and them needing this game for playoff seeding, I think they get it done here again.
PICK: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-113), Risk 1.13 Units
It was another winning night for yours truly as our NBA bets went 4-1 overall. We got a little gift from lady luck in the Wizards/Raptors over bet but hey, when you get as many unfortunate beats as I do, I’ll take that ANY DAY of the week. Besides, do you really think that a Wizards game going under was the “right” side? Psh. Happy Friday, good people!
Pelicans +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Like I’ve said in so many previous articles (and in my podcast), New Orleans is a team with a ton of talent and they’re very desperate right now, sitting right outside the “play-in tournament” for a playoff bid. Philadelphia is the considerably better team but I have to believe the Pelicans can at least make this close for most of this contest, purely based on motivation. The 10th placed Spurs have a REALLY tough road ahead to stay on pace, so the Pelicans have a real opportunity to sneak into the postseason. I’ll lay 1 unit on that narrative.
Celtics -3 (-110), 1.5 units: Just like we figured, the Bulls ousted the Hornets last night after finally having a full lineup on the floor. LaVine had 13, Vucevic had 29, and the banged up Hornets couldn’t hang with a rejuvenated Bulls unit. I think things will look a little different tonight. Jaylen Brown will sit out tonight but Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson are probable for Boston. Veterans like Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, and of course Jayson Tatum round up a Celtics unit that sits at 35-31 on the season. That’s good for 6th in the East. Do you know who’s also 35-31? The Miami Heat; and they’re traveling to Boston Sunday for a double-header against the very same Celtics. Protecting the 6th seed is really important. If you fall to 7th, you’ll be a part of the “play-in tournament” games which, in the blink of an eye, puts you at risk of missing the playoffs. That’s one reason why I hate that whole idea but I digress. The Celtics are one of the more up and down teams in the association but they’ve turned up the volume recently, going 12-6 overall since the start of April. They’re top 13 in both offense and defensive efficiency, so they do nothing that really thrills you, but they’re full of talented shooters and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA. With how small they are, that’s pretty incredible and speaks to their effort. I expect max effort and a cover for Boston tonight, while I expect Chicago to deflate after that comfortable win against Charlotte’s B team.
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Rockets tend to play at the pace of the other team, because they’re just that vulnerable, and even without John Wall they can still put up points. That’s especially true in the second half of the 2021 season. The Bucks play lightning fast at home and that’s how they overwhelm teams– once Giannis hits half court, it takes him about 3 long, sprinting steps to slam it down and he does it often. Milwaukee has averaged 126.5 points per game at home in their last 6 games, half of those against really good defenses like the Suns and Sixers. The Rockets play at the 6th quickest tempo in the NBA while the Bucks are 3rd. This all points towards another game with a ton of points for me. Consider a Milwaukee team total over, too.
Jazz -4 (-110), 2 units: The Jazz look to be rounding into form after 2 impressive wins over a tough San Antonio team this week. While the Suns lost a few games in a row, Utah’s recent wins neatly placed them right back in first place in the Western Conference. The Jazz will look to hold onto that top seed since it’ll undoubtedly mean a less trying road to the championship. The 1 and 2 seeds are a big deal for that reason. Meanwhile, all the Nuggets have done recently is win. Denver is 15-4 straight up since April 1st. Murray got injured on April 12, so the majority of those wins came after his absence. Court general Nikola Jokic has led the Nuggets past innumerable tough teams like the Knicks, Clippers, Grizzlies and Heat. I love Denver and I think they could be a real contender come playoff time, but this isn’t the spot. Utah will stay home and get the Western Conference’s worst team in the Rockets tomorrow night. Denver has to travel to Brooklyn Saturday to face an angry Nets squad that’s lost 4 in a row. And even with all the press the Jazz have received lately, they’re still probably way better than you think. Utah ranks 3rd in offensive and defensive efficiency (Hollinger Metrics), 2nd in rebounding rate, and 1st overall in point differential. The 2nd placed Clippers aren’t even close (Utah is +9.4, LAC is +6.2). At 22-11 ATS, the Jazz are also the NBA leader at covering games at home (66.7%). This is a comfortable, “protect the throne” type spot for the Jazz and I expect them to take advantage. I love Denver, but the cards stack up for a big Utah win.
Spurs -4 (-110), 2 units: This line is going up and up so jump on it now. After 2 straight losses to the Western Conference leading Jazz, San Antonio looks for some revenge and a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive as their tough road trip continues Friday. I don’t love that they have to travel to Portland tomorrow night, but San Antonio is still the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 67.7%. The Spurs have a REALLY tough road to stay in that 10th spot in the West. Check out the rest of their schedule: Kings tonight, then Portland, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, New York, and then two straight games against Phoenix. Wow, that’s pretty damn brutal. Point is, the Spurs need to win tonight and they need it bad. Popovich loves to put the clamps down on defense against teams like the Kings, who depend on their mid-tier offense to win games (that hasn’t worked), and Sacramento’s worst-ranked defense (Hollinger Metrics) won’t be able to hold up against DeRozan and Murray and the young, talented Spurs roster. That’ll be especially true with how motivated they should be. I’m all over San Antonio.
As many of us all know, football is a game of inches, and by being off just one, could be the difference between a win and a loss in a league with limited games. The shape of the football itself creates it’s own sort of randomness on circumstances such as field position during punts and how the ball spins during field goals. There is also a certain amount of randomness of “when” the points are scored that pertains to a team’s final win record. Let’s face it, there is a good amount of luck that happens within the football season the best teams do not always win against the worst teams. We can just go back to December 20th 2020 to find an easy example of that for when the Jets played the Rams.
Many of us NFL football analysts and sports bettors want to have good methods for prediction for next year’s football season in order to be more accurate. Wins and losses do not tell the whole story and they are also rarely a good indicator by itself for a team’s future success. If we find some scientific methods that will correlate well using a team’s past performances to their success in the future, it will help us become not only more knowledgeable, but it could also help us become more profitable. The method that we will be discussing today is the 2020 Pythagorean win total calculation as a method to help predict the 2021 football season results.
Is it possible for an NFL team to score more points than they give up and have a losing record? How about score less points than they allow and have a winning record? The answer to that is that it is very possible and it happens every year. In 2019 the Houston Texas scored 378 total points, yet gave up 399 to win 10 games. In that same year, the Chargers scored 337 points while only giving up 345 (almost 50/50) and only won only 5 games.
Sometimes teams score many of their points during blowouts and as luck will have it, those same teams might lose their close games. Due to these discrepancies, we need to formulate the data to find out what some of these teams were expected to do based on points scored compared to their actual win/loss results. Using a function that takes a look at the total points scored as a data point with the total points allowed is, at many times, a better indicator of a team’s future success compared to their actual record. This is why we can use a Pythagorean win total compilation to compare what was expected to happen based on points scored for all of the NFL teams, to what actually did happen in how these teams finished out their year. This way we can have a better idea on what to expect for next season. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant.
The Pythagorean theorem is a^2+b^2=c^2. It basically figures out the distance between two points of a right triangle (c), or for what we are interested in, the expected value between the relationship of sides. Please see the figure. Think of points scored as (a), and points allowed as (b) where (c) is a function of the (a and b) linear equation and we just want to know what the relationship is between a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2)to get a percentage of wins multiplied by the total games. Going by the diagram, if it is a tall and thin triangle, the team scored a lot more points compared to what they have given up, and if it is a short and long triangle, the team has given up many more points compared to what they actually have scored.
I know what you are thinking. Why can’t we just use the points scored over total points as a basis for predicting the expected outcomes? The answer to that simply is that the data would be wrong. For example, if a team scores 75% of the total points and only allowed 25% of the total points throughout the year, would we only expect that team to win just 75% of their games? Heck no. That is like averaging 30 points per game on offense and only allowing 10 points per game on defense. Even the 16-0 2007 patriots who scored 68.3% of the points averaging 36.8 on offense and giving up 17.1 on defense won many more than 12 games. The 2007 Patriots’ Pythagorean win total certainly didn’t equate to winning every game, but was at 13.76, which is much higher than the 12 and a much more relatable number to their fantastic season.
But wait, there is more! This Pythagorean equation does have it’s faults if adjustments are not made to it. This equation tends to bunch all of the teams more towards the middle when actual outcomes may deviate further away from the mean. Statistician Daryl Morey found this in football among other sports and was able to develop a more statically significant exponent of 2.37 (rather than 2) as a constant for better accuracy while utilizing this equation. Without getting too far into the weeds, we must make adjustments correlated to the actual variances that happened over the years pertaining to each sport, and for this column, football itself. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept even farther by stating that each team’s exponent should be different as a function of their points scored. According to Schatz, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). I myself find that using the constant exponent of 2.37 doesn’t deviate significantly enough from Morey’s exponent model with respect to the actual randomness in the sport of football itself.
Now to discuss some of the methodology for our adjustments. The simple concept is adding a 17th game to the results. In order to do that you much take 17/16 which is 1.0625 and multiply that by each team’s points scored and points against. It is basically the same thing as adding their average points scored and allowed per game back into their total. For example, Green Bay scored 509 points during the 2020 season with an average of 31.8. Add the average to the total and you have 541 points adjusted for a 17 game season. The next adjustment that we need to make is their actual wins from 2020. Now all of these numbers are fixed numbers year over year with no decimal points so we have to theoretically add back the average into the equation by multiplying their total by 1.0625. So for instance, Green Bay won 13 games last year so we must normalize it to 13.81 and the Jacksonville Jaguars won just 1 game last year and we are normalizing it to 1.06. There is no reason to reward each team equally for a 17th game.
Finally, we have to take a look at turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Weather if the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. The Tennessee Titans had the best turnover ratio of +11 and the Denver Broncos had the worst at -16. Now it is well known that turnovers are worth about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Jacksonville is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The Baltimore Ravens fit that bill and the Kansas City Chiefs have been on the high positive side for turnovers for at least the last six or seven years for the most part. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number of 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2020 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. Please see our chart below for our adjusted actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected wins.
NFL 2020 Pythagorean Season Win Totals Adjusted For 17 Games
Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results adjusted for a 17 game schedule with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2020 season. Here are the four outliers on each side:
Over-achievers (all based on a 17 game season):
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs had only 10.85 expected wins compared to their 14.88 adjusted actual win record last year. A -4.02 difference. KC went 7-10-1 ATS last year and 1-9-1 ATS their last 11 games. They won a lot of close ones.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns only had 8.02 expected wins compared to their 11.69 adjusted actual win record last year. A -3.67 difference. Cleveland was outscored 419 to 408 last year.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills had expected wins of 11.05 compared to their 13.81 adjusted actual win record last year. A -2.66 difference. Buffalo had a pretty easy schedule but they were also ATS monsters at 12-7. Three of their four losses were were by 9 points or more and 1 of their losses was by 26 points.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had expected wins of 9.19 compared to their 11.69 adjusted actual win record last year. A -2.5 difference. Tennessee had +11 turnovers which really helped them win a lot of games.
Under-achievers (all based on a 17 game season):
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcon’s had expected wins of 7.92 compared to their 4.25 adjusted actual win record last year. A +3.67 difference. Atlanta lost eight out of the nine games that were decided by a touchdown or less.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars had expected wins of 4.46 compared to their 1.06 adjusted actual win record last year. A +3.40 difference. An -8 turnover margin certainly didn’t help and they lost every close game that they had. Going 7-9 ATS also shows that they underachieved.
Houston Texans: The Texans had expected wins of 7.01 compared to their 4.25 adjusted actual win record last year. A +2.76 difference. Having a -9 turnover ratio hurts while this team was predicted to regress from their Pythagorean expected win totals from 2019. Houston blew a lot of games right at the end.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles had expected wins of 6.78 compared to their 4.25 adjusted win record last year. A +2.53 difference. Philadelphia had lots of injury woes last year. They went 3-5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and the tie game with Cincinnati also hurt their total wins.
In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Cam Newton and Kirk Cousins. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2021 seasons and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis in the 2021 season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.
Ref 1: Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-13-dvoa-ratings
We have a jam packed show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to discuss the draft and go over his 2020 Pythagorean season win totals to use as a method to help predict the 2021 football season’s potential results! First, Kiev recaps the draft with some impromptu grades given for each team based on their results. Then, Kiev talks about the Pythagorean season win total calculation and how it can be used to help point out the teams that were lucky as well as unlucky during the 2020 NFL football season. Which teams should have had a better record based on points scored and turnovers? Which teams should have been worse? Finally, Kiev gets a little into the UFC on ESPN 24 card for this weekend with a few small plays. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing and more!
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Well we finished under .500 yesterday, which isn’t typical of these NBA articles (in case you don’t realize), with some surprising no-covers by the Knicks and Spurs and a loss by the Suns. Moving on, we’re still hitting 57% on over 300 NBA picks this year, let’s go!
Bulls -4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a really tough bet for me to pull the trigger on but unfortunately, I think it’s the right side. I doubted Charlotte earlier in the season (Hornets fans on Twitter weren’t very happy about it) and I understated how good LaMelo Ball is. He still has a long way to go as a leader and NBA star but the kid is talented and when he’s healthy, he’s an instant sparkplug for his team. That being said, he can’t do it alone. Charlotte is SO injured tonight it’s silly: Bridges, Darling, Graham, Hayward, Martin– all out or doubtful. At least it looks like PJ Washington may play, but Rozier and Ball and Washington can’t do it all. The Hornets aren’t electric in any way; they just play good team basketball. They’re a mid-tier basketball team and the stats support that. Another reason why I hate picking this side is because I really don’t like the Bulls. I called them out as pretenders back in January and it turns out I’m more than right. Sure they’ve dealt with injuries but what team hasn’t? They’re shallow on defense and too volatile on offense. That being said, their young star Zach LaVine returns tonight and it looks like Vucevic will play, too. They’re healthy and the news out of Chicago sounds like they’re motivated and still hold an outside belief that they can make the playoffs. They won’t, but good for them. All signs point towards an overwhelming and overperforming night for the Bulls and I have to follow that narrative, as much as I hate it. Both of these teams play tomorrow night on their home floors, though it’s more likely Chicago will lose Friday against the Celtics (the Hornets play Orlando). Maybe Charlotte doesn’t feel like they need this as much, but Chicago surely does. I’m on the Bulls with a big SIGH.
Nets/Mavericks first quarter over 59.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Brooklyn -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. I keep playing these 1st quarter angles and they keep working. Often in these big spotlight games between two teams everyone wants to watch, especially close to playoff time, the game can really slow down towards the end. We’ve seen it recently in the Nets/Bucks games and we could see it again tonight. Dallas likes to play at a much slower pace than Brooklyn (23rd in tempo), though it usually works out well since they have a top 10 offense according to Hollinger’s efficiency ratings. I’m sure it’ll work again tonight, especially since Brooklyn can’t cover shit these days. The Nets are 22nd in the NBA in points allowed, averaging 114.5 permitted per game. That won’t hold up in the playoffs and I don’t think it holds up in this game either, especially early. Neither of these teams really need this game in any realistic way, but the Mavericks, at home, are definitely in a better spot. They have an upcoming doubleheader against the lowly Cavaliers around the corner, while the Nets have to travel to Denver on Saturday as their road trip trudges on. Still, Kleber and Porzingis are out so much of the Mavericks’ offense will lean on Doncic, and I’m sure Durant and Kyrie will be ready to roll after 2 straight losses to Milwaukee. I’ll throw a unit on the Nets to assert themselves tonight in Dallas, while I love another first quarter over bet thanks to Brooklyn and their 1st placed offense pushing the pace.
Wizards/Raptors over 236 (-110), 1.5 units: Like my great Aunt Margie always used to say: I may be dumb but I’m not stupid. This total has been bet higher and higher and for good reason– there may not be a high enough total for the Wizards these days. In case you didn’t see my Tweet earlier today, the Wizards have been electric over the past 14 games, averaging 126 ppg since April 12th. In that span, they’re 11-3 straight up. I can’t get a good handle on who’s in and who’s out tonight for Toronto, but it sounds like most of their starters and stars are in the lineup, including Siakam, Lowry, and VanFleet. For that reason, I’ll fade picking a side here. Washington is off a back-to-back tonight after a tough loss at Milwaukee, so there’s that too. The Raptors are volatile as hell but when they’re all healthy and playing together, they’re capable of beating any team in the NBA. We’ve seen that script play out many times before. Until someone proves they can slow down Beal and Westbrook, and this could certainly be the night since eventually they have to get tired (right?… right?), I’ll keep hitting these overs. Washington seems to be close or over 70 points at the end of every half, making these total bets pretty easy to hit in the end.
Clippers -8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Tread carefully here because the Lakers could wake up at any second, even without Lebron, but so far Anthony Davis hasn’t been able to hold up his team or make any real difference. The Lakers are losing and losing often since his return and Lebron, for all that he’s done over his long and legendary career, is starting to sound awfully negative about his future. Complaining about his injuries (it’s about time he admits it) and about the playoffs, King James doesn’t seem to be in a good place and it’s quickly looking like this won’t be the Lakers year. Enter the swarming Clippers who, like sharks in shallow water, surely smell blood here. LAC is starting all their big names Thursday and why wouldn’t they? If the Clippers win tonight, they’ll sweep the season series with the Lakers and at least gain the feeling like they’ve regained the throne of Los Angeles, at least temporarily. The Clippers are quietly entering the playoffs as one of the most well balanced teams in the NBA. They’re 2nd overall in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in point differential, and sit comfortably at 4th in the West. And that’s all after consistently sitting stars throughout the year. When all players are healthy, they’re a really tough team to overcome. Dennis Schroder is also out tonight, the other Laker-sparkplug, and this just sets up too well for another LAC-blowout. Only 1 unit out of respect for the champs, but I don’t think this one is that close.
Well we went 3-2 yesterday, not sad about that, although it probably should’ve been 4-1 but the Rockies couldn’t maintain margin in the 9th inning. That’s okay– the over in that game was one of my premium picks so at least that worked out. Let’s keep winning!
Astros first five (+175), 1 unit: This is an automatic play on the Astros for me. The Yankees are surging a bit but they’re not a better team than Houston. Playing in the Bronx with all the hate they’re getting can’t be an easy spot for Bregman and Altuve and other Astros’ players but eventually the pendulum swings and this might just be the spot. Gerrit Cole (1.43 ERA, 0.72 WHIP over 37.2 innings) is still the man and deserves all the credit he gets. The Yankees’ ace has looked sensational in his last two starts, allowing only 1 run and 7 hits in 13 innings. Earning base hits won’t be easy with Cole on the mound but it certainly serves as extra motivation. Down 2 games, the Astros can use all the motivation they can get. Lance McCullers (3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 26.2 innings) gets the call for Houston and although he can’t be compared to Cole, lately he’s looked fantastic. Fresh off a 7 inning game where he only permitted 3 hits and 0 runs against Tampa, McCullers will look to build off that performance today. He’s been especially good at preventing hard contact (0.34 homeruns/9 innings), which is integral against New York. I’ll side with McCullers and a Houston roster that needs to get-right in the first half of this contest. This is great value.
Red Sox -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units and over 8 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. That was an ugly finish for Boston last night and I expect some payback today against the very same Tigers. Detroit was due for a win, good for them, but I doubt the Red Sox will let the same thing happen today. Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 34.2 innings) returned to form last time out against the Rangers, allowing only 1 run in 6 innings, but he was coming off 2 bad games before that against the Mariners and White Sox (9 runs in 17 innings). Spencer Turnbull (4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 16 innings) has been regressing since the season’s start and this isn’t the matchup for him to recalibrate. I foresee a ton of contact and points for Boston today, resulting in a an easy win by margin. These two teams are not in the same universe. Two susceptible pitchers forces my hand to the over, too.
Blue Jays/Athletics under 8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Mike Fiers (4.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in one 6 inning start) ran into a confident Baltimore team in his first start last Friday, allowing an average of 1 hit per inning and granting the Orioles 3 runs (2 homeruns) in the process. That’s okay and we’re not worried– the 35 year old veteran pitcher is dealing with decreased velocity and hip/back injuries that delayed his season, but we expect some positive regression for the 10 year starter today. Fiers has plenty left in the tank and I expect Oakland to handle their bullpen better today– they allowed 7 runs in the final 2 innings, inviting an easy win for the Jays. Hyun Jin Ryu needs little introduction (2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.96 FIP over 27.2 innings) and should have no issue commanding an Oakland offense that’s as inconsistent as it gets in the majors. Both of these teams are in the bottom third in runs per game. I see this as a pitcher’s duel so I’ll hammer the under.
Lean, Marlins win (-140): This is just a lean for me out of respect for Madison Bumgarner (5.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 30.2 innings) and what he’s still capable of, but Pablo Lopez (2.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.13 FIP over 34.2 innings) has looked elite this year (disregarding his horrible opening start against Atlanta) and I love the way Miami is controlling this series at home.
