It’s NFL Draft time and if you’re like me you’re excited just to talk a little pro football! Here are a few of my best bets, as well as some crazy lines that I think could be worth a look.
Caleb Farley under 23.5 (-110): There are so many intangibles that are working against Caleb Farley. He took off last year because of COVID concerns, he just had back surgery, which reportedly caused him to not have feeling in his toes, he missed his pro day, and now Caleb has COVID so he won’t make it to the draft, resulting in more virtual meetings with coaches and scouts than he would like. So then why do I like this kid to go under 23.5? If Farley can stay healthy, teams know that he’s one of the best picks you can make in the first round. Patrick Surtain will likely be the first cornerback to get picked, but I’m not so sure about JayCee Horn or Greg Newsome II. The Arizona Cardinals pick at #16 and with Surtain likely being gone, Farley is a perfect fit for a Cards unit that’s extremely thin at that position. Farley is professional, has size and a high IQ– the others might need some rearing. Out of all the corners, Farley also has the highest ceiling; he’s gotten better and better every year and many believe we haven’t see his peak. And now he has a chip on his shoulder. I wanted to lean over but I have a feeling about this one.
DeVonta Smith under 11.5 (EVEN): I know this isn’t a popular grab anymore but DeVonta Smith has been all over the media and I like the way he’s responded. Humble but confident, Smith has little doubt that he’ll electrify an NFL offense and I think many of these top 11 teams know it. Even if Jaylen Waddle and J-Mar Chase are chosen first, Smith still has a good chance of getting picked. The Dolphins, Bengals, Lions, Panthers, and Giants could all be interested in the dynamic Alabama receiver. For even money, I’ll take Smith to keep shocking the world.
Jaylen Waddle first WR drafted (+600) and under 10.5 (-135): Ja’Marr Chase has apparently been crowned the best WR in this draft by some pundits, but I’m not so sure these top 10 teams in the draft feel that way. Even with DeVonta Smith’s electric talent, one that was on full display when he almost solely took over the National Championship game, scouts and coaches agreed that Jaylen Waddle, throughout his Alabama career, was the guy you’d want to draft as your team’s future #1 receiver. For that reason, consider that first bet at a huge +600 value. If Jaylen Waddle is picked second or third, he’ll still have a fantastic chance at going under 10.5 with the 4 aforementioned teams in the top 10 that are interested in an elite pass catcher. I like both bets, but the latter really feels like it’ll happen. A little juice, but I say it’s well worth it.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramorah as first LB drafted (+650) and under 19.5 (-120): Watch some of this guy’s film and you’ll see what I mean. As a Notre Dame fan (don’t hate me), I watched Jeremiah single-handedly take over games on defense. He has absolutely elite quickness and change-of-direction speed, he’s a freak athletically, and he has a very high football IQ. He won the Butkus Award for all these reasons and more. Micah Parsons, everyone’s sure-fire first LB pick, has some shady disciplinary issues in his past. Owusu-Koramorah has a squeaky clean record and a long list of accomplishments at South Bend. Even if he doesn’t go first, I love him for Washington at the 19th pick. Adding to an already dominant unit, that would be a scary addition for the Football Team and I don’t seem them passing on it.
Other bets to consider–
Mac Jones under 3.5 (-270): I’d just like to point out that this used to be + money not long ago. Now it’s apparently a sure-thing that he’s going to the 49ers (according to many in the media). Is this price too high to pay for it now? That’s up to you to decide.
Trey Lance under 5.5 (+120): This might be worth a look. Who’s to say that Atlanta won’t take Trey, or maybe some other team will trade up with Atlanta or Miami to snag Trey out of fear they’ll miss out. This is a great line for a bet that could easily hit.
Caleb Farley first CB chosen (+2400): This will probably be Patrick Surtain but again, if there are trades and things get weird and a team already fell in love with Farley, this isn’t out of the world of possibility.
Well our one bet on Twitter was the Mavs/Warriors game over 222 and somehow that hit despite the Warriors unbelievably bad scoring effort in the 1st half. I haven’t checked but those had to be some historically low totals (12 points in the first quarter are you kidding me?). It was an odd night in baseball and basketball and I’m glad I at least avoided one of those sports. Onto Wednesday, where there’s a lot more opportunity on a big NBA slate!
76ers -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ve read plenty of bettors who love the Hawks tonight even without Trae Young, but I have to go the other way. Philly travels home after their get-right crushing of the Thunder and they finally have a fully healthy lineup. Harris, Simmons, Embiid, Curry– the gang is all there and after a few let-down losses to wrap up the third week in April, you won’t see me panicking about the 76ers. Second in the Eastern Conference and still one of the best teams in the NBA, Philadelphia was due for some disappointment after tearing up teams since the All-Star break. I get why some like the Hawks tonight; Bogdan Bogdanovic has played really well, especially in Young’s absence, and the Hawks are a resilient and well-coached team. While all that is true, this feels the spot and the time for the 76ers to turn on the jets and start overwhelming teams before the playoffs. The Hawks at full capacity could keep this game close– this Hawks team cannot. I’ll take the 76ers to cover.
Knicks ML and Knicks/Bulls under 209.5 (-110), 1 unit to win 2 units: When seeing this line at first I said to myself– haven’t the Knicks faced the Bulls like 4 times this past week? Then I realized it was the Heat that recently matched up against the Bulls twice; funny, the Heat and Knicks are built very similarly. They both play high quality, rough defense and they have veteran leaders who play with fearless vigor. Those are the kind of teams you like come playoff time and now that the Knicks got the pressure of a long winning streak (and ATS streak, if they care) off their backs, I like them even better in this matchup today. The Knicks are now the ATS leader of the NBA, they’re still #1 in points allowed, and they’re top 10 in point differential. When the Bulls face a team as solid as New York, who’s getting better and better on the offensive side of the ball too, Chicago can rarely match up. I’m all over the Knicks, another great game for Julius Randle, and another stifling defensive performance. Take either bet or the full parlay for a +200 return.
Lakers/Wizards under 229 (-110), 1.5 units *only if Anthony Davis plays: As long as “the brow” is playing, I’ll go with this game flying under. The Lakers were good on defense even without Lebron and Davis in the lineup. Now, still sitting atop the association in defensive efficiency, LAL heads to DC to salvage a loss they had back when Lebron was healthy in late February. Davis was missing from that contest and the game hit 252 points. All trends and stats say this game will go over, too. I mean, Washington hasn’t scored under 117 points in 9 straight games, and many of their totals soared over 120 or 130 points during their winning streak. But this line is kind of sneaky, isn’t it? If a huge total is so obvious, why does it still sit below 230? For me, this is a trust in the Lakers and their coaching bet. LAL knows they have to slow down the #1 tempo unit in the association and having Anthony Davis is a great tool to do that. The big man loves to slow down the game and post up on offense and shut down the front court on defense. Not many defenses can slow down Westbrook and Beal lately– I’ll bet that LAL can do just that for 1 humble unit.
Nuggets -4 (-110), 2.5 units: I won’t overexplain or over-examine this one. By now, hopefully you know the way I feel about these teams. New Orleans is full of potential but they get a lot of bad coaching and front-office management and because of it, they’re extremely volatile. The Nuggets are one of the sharpest and well-led teams in the NBA, even without Jamal Murray, and I don’t see the Pelicans being any match for them tonight. Steven Adams is questionable; watch out for that because that would be a huge front court loss for the Pelicans. Although I respect what the Pelicans have been able to do in some spots and I know they’re right there on the playoff bubble, this number is way too low for the true disparity that exists between these teams. New Orleans also plays very poorly on the road. I’m hammering the Nuggets tonight.
We have a great show for you today! David Bearman from @ESPN comes on to break down the NFL draft! First, Kiev talks about his 1 hour of sleep last night and why that happened. Next, David comes on and the guys get right into the draft! Who are their top 5 quarterbacks? What might Atlanta do at the 4 spot and what should they do? What could Cincinnati do at the 5 spot and what should they do? What is David’s take on the dolphins with the 6 pick? Then, the guys go into some NFL draft plays with both some agreement and disagreement? Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Odd day in the world of sports but we still managed a 2-3 record in MLB here. I’ll take it considering all the let-downs and weird outcomes. Onto a winning Wednesday!
Twins (-125), 1.5 units: The Twins are certainly struggling but this is about as good a “get-right” opportunity as any. Minnesota is still top 12 in slugging % and top 10 in team batting average; they just can’t figure out how to hold off their opponents. Insert J.A. Happ. Happ has been a steady hand for Minnesota this season, rendering a cool 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, including only 8 hits and 3 runs in 16 innings pitched. Minnesota’s last win was with Happ behind the mound and this is another good opportunity for them to get off the schneid. Cleveland, who already won this series with 2 games under their belt, sends out Logan Allen today. The 23 year old is still learning to compete in the big leagues but at least he’s been consistent: in his 14 innings pitched, he’s allowed just over 1 hit and just under 1 run per inning. That’s the kind of vulnerability Minnesota needs to get out of this disastrous losing streak. I’m on the Twins.
Dodgers -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units: The Reds are getting some nice redemption on the road against the Dodgers, already securing 2 victories and a series win heading into Wednesday afternoon. Like the above write-up, LAD has a perfect opportunity for some revenge here. The champs have lost 5 of their last 6 games and their pitchers have really struggled with command during that stretch. The good news for game 3 is the Dodgers haven’t had any issues scoring against Cincinnati; the Reds just managed their rotation and game-plans better and eked out those two wins. This game will feature another lopsided pitching matchup, as the Dodgers send ace Clayton Kershaw (2.56 ERA over 31 innings) to the dirt against Sonny Gray (7.88 ERA over 8 innings). Gray has really struggled in the early going and while Kershaw can once again carry his team, the Dodgers’ elite offense should be able to take advantage of a shaky Sonny. Give me LAD by margin.
Red Sox first 5 (+210), 1 unit: If the Mets have proven anything over deGrom’s career, it’s that they’re still very beatable when their ace and Cy Young winner mans the dirt. New York is legendary at this point for not surrounding deGrom with the rotation and lineups he needs to take the Mets for the next level. I think this could be another prime example of that Wednesday. Jacob deGrom needs no introduction (0.31 ERA, 0.55 WHIP over 29 innings, just absurd), but Boston’s starter Nick Pivetta has been no chump in 2021 either. The 28 year old right hander out of British Columbia has had some real gems in 2021, notably against the Rays and most recently against the Mariners. He brings a serviceable 3.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP to today’s game. He also brings a much better offense to back him up. In almost every offensive category, the Red Sox are top or near the top and the Mets are near the bottom. New York really struggles in converting hits to points in particular. We always expect deGrom to put on a show at Citi Field and that’s why he’s priced at a ridiculous -290. I’d rather take the far-superior offense who may only need one homer or one error from the home team to win this first inning line. Value, baby!
Giants (-145), 2 units: I’ll keep this one short. This is the kind of game the Giants love to win. Colorado pulled ahead and finally won on the road last night after a great performance from their lineup, slamming a few homeruns and capitalizing off San Francisco’s mistakes. Good for them, but that won’t happen tonight. The Rockies’ German Marquez (3.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) has looked decent thus far, but he struggled in his one road game this season, allowing 6 hits and 3 runs in 5.2 innings. He’ll go up against Alex Wood (0.75 ERA and 0.50 WHIP), who has looked deadly in 12 innings on the mound. Low scoring, a pitching battle, and a rare redemption spot for the Giants? I love them today.
A nice 2-1 start back to action and to start our week, and the wins were + money! There’s a mighty Tuesday card and I have 5 picks to show for it. Let’s go!
Pirates win (-115), 1.5 units: The surprising Royals take on the equally surprising Pirates in Pittsburgh this evening, and it’s about time we start betting on these teams and taking advantage of value-lines when we see them. Jake Junis brings a 3.71 ERA over 17 innings into this contest for KC, but he got blasted by the Rays in his last outing, allowing 6 hits and 5 runs over 5 innings. Kansas City can hit and they’ve pitched really well as a whole. Their last series victory was dominant, but it was against the Tigers so that gives it a little perspective. I’m more impressed by what I see from the Pirates lately. Pittsburgh won another series, the last W over the Twins in Minnesota, and they’ve outscored their opponents 34-25 in their last 3 series. While that’s not a huge margin, they’ve found ways to out-pitch or out-slug their foes over a long 10 day road trip, which is not something we usually see from Pittsburgh teams of the recent past. The Pirates return home today behind Tyler Anderson. Anderson’s steady command has earned a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 20.2 innings played. He’s looked sharpest in his last 2 games, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs. I like the Pirates returning home in game 1 against a Royals team that’s due for a little negative regression.
Orioles win (+148), 1 unit: As we said from day 1 here in these articles, Corey Kluber’s arm was bound to get off to a slow start after incurring those tough injuries. His numbers reflect that reality– a 5.40 ERA, 6.43 FIP and a staggering 1.8 homeruns per 9 innings over just 15 innings played. I hope the kid gets it right but I can’t anticipate that’ll happen today against a zealous Orioles team. Baltimore is only 3-8 at Camden Yards and they know it. The O’s won game 1 at home after another dry hitting day from the Yanks and today they send Bruce Zimmerman to the mound. Zimmerman is no ace but his numbers are all better than Kluber. Baltimore’s offensive statistics are all pretty mid-tier but that’s all you need against a struggling Yankees unit; one that’s last in the majors in slugging percentage. There’s value here on Baltimore and I’m grabbing it– gooooo O!
Red Sox/Mets over 8.5 (-110), 2 units: Ready for a crazy statistic? Red Sox opponents have scored first in 11 of their last 12 games. That’s pretty incredible. While they surely allow a lot of runs, the Red Sox are also one of the best units in MLB in a ton of offensive categories like runs per game, hits per game, RBIs per game, batting average, and they’re #1 in slugging percentage. Today Boston and New York send out two of their worst options at the mound in Garrett Richards and David Peterson, who both have ERAs that soar way over 6. This line is getting juiced up but I got it at -110 and it sure feels like a steal. It’s a lovely dad in Queens and an even lovelier recipe for some scoring. Hammer that over.
Diamondbacks win (+128), 1 unit: Two squads feeling fat and sassy come into Tuesday night and I’ll favor the one that’s getting better value against a pitcher I’m not too fond of. Chris Paddack can’t seem to turn around his command issues and I’m happy to fade him for plus money in spots like this. Paddack has allowed 1 hit and .78 runs per inning thus far. The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound today, who hasn’t looked much better than Paddack, but strong performances from Arizona’s sluggers and bullpen, in addition to most of their starting pitchers, have led to victories in 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also only played 5 out of their 22 games at home, so a .500 record through that sort of schedule ain’t too shabby. The Diamondbacks also slug better and have more runs than the Padres on the season. Give me the D-backs for great value!
Giants -1.5 (+120), 1.3 units: By now you already know what I do– the San Francisco Giants are pretty darn good, and most of that is predicated on their pitching (now if only the NY Giants can bring the same heat in pro football, this guy will be really happy). The 15-8 Giants, who are 9-2 at home, remain at Oracle Park today after another series win, most recently against the Marlins. After a 12-0 beat-down of Colorado last night, who’s lack of depth and offseason versatility is really starting to show, the two teams face again in a game that should feature a lower tally of runs. Though I think the result will be the same. The Rockies allow a rough 2.58 batting average to opponents thus far, though it’s hard to blame much of that on Chi Chi Gonzalez. Their “sometimes starter” has a 3.00 ERA and has allowed 15 hits over 15 innings pitched (but only 5 total runs) and only 10 hits in his last 4 games. The Giants send Aaron Sanchez to the mound tonight who, like many of their pitchers, has been special so far this season. Sanchez has earned a 1.80 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and has only allowed 4 runs in 19.2 innings pitched. The 28 year old has seen a drop-off in his velocity this year but not in command, allowing 0.46 homeruns per 9 innings and flexing a 88% left on base percentage. These are two ballclubs going in opposite directions and I see little to no value in taking the Rockies right now. Give me SF by margin.
Still in recovery mode over here — what an absolute SHOW of a Bachelor party — but boy did I miss writing here for all of you (and truthfully for me, I just love it). Because I have so much to catch up on, this is a super short article with just my picks along with a few lines for each play. I’ll be full throttle tomorrow as usual. Here’s what I like in the world of NBA and MLB Monday:
NBA:
Spurs -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Spurs are the best ATS team in the NBA on the road and the Wizards are due to ease off the gas pedals. I love San Antonio.
Knicks win (+115), 1 unit: I’m gonna ride with the Knicks here. As much as I LOVE the Suns their recent struggles were due, no NBA team is infallible this year, and the Knicks are white hot. Phoenix also hasn’t faced a defense like the Knicks so far this season. Go New York for 10 straight wins!
Heat/Bulls over 206 (-110), 2 units: The Heat stifled the Bulls 2 nights ago and while I still think they’ll win, a total this low is unlikely to repeat. The Bulls have enough offense to inflate this number.
MLB
Indians win (+110), 1 unit: Berrios has been great but this is a positive-regression bet on Plesac, who gets fantastic value here at plus money.
Rangers first 5 (+120), 1 unit: Ohtani has a good ERA this season but he’s still very hittable. No Trout for the Angels either– I’ll take the Rangers for a nice early win at home.
Reds win (+165), 1 unit: It’s been a tale of 2 teams thus far for Cincinnati and I’ll choose to play on them today to end that streak. The motivation will be there and Mahle has showed quite the command thus far.
If anyone thinks that the predictions in any of these mock drafts are going to end up anywhere close to the actual draft results, then I volunteer to be their bookie. There will be a lot of teams trying to trade down due to the fact that there are very few players that really stick out compared to their competition and teams in general would rather have more picks than take high risks. In saying that, there is value to doing a mock draft in order to start researching teams and what their holes are coming into the 2021 NFL football season. My approach do doing this mock draft I believe can be more valuable than the rest due to the fact that it not only breaks down who we think they might pick, we also talk about what these teams “should” do based on their needs.
Who I think they will pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Who they should pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Seriously? Trent Baalke got lucky that the Jets decided to win last year. I haven’t seen this kind of leadership out of someone who was a true Freshman. Laurence is the epitome of solid and I do not think that he had that great of an O-line or WRs last year. Lawrence knows when to take off running with the ball which is a quality that not many NFL quarterbacks possess. He also knows how to get down and avoid injury. His 6’6 frame allows him to see over the offensive line with ease. 70% completion and a 24-5 TD/INT ratio. The Jaguars have three more picks in the top 45 at Nos. 25, 33 and 45 — to plug other holes, and they need to hit on those. Lawrence is a no-brainer as the top signal-caller in this class. Trevor Lawrence has the highest floor out of anybody in this draft.
Who I think that they will pick: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Who they should pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
I Like Zach Wilson but I think that Justin field edges him out a bit. BYU was awesome last year and Zach Wilson was a huge part of that reason but we can’t forget that their schedule ranked 104th in difficulty on Sagarin. Wilson has an amazing 77% completion percentage from last year with 33 Tds and only 3 interceptions. Watch out NFL! Wilson has a high ceiling but his floor is a bit low for me.
Who I think that they will pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Who they should pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This is a strange situation because San Francisco is acting like they are infatuated with Mac Jones, but, according to Vegas having Justin Fields as the favorite here, I have to think that there is going reason to bye into the conspiracy. Here is what is behind it.
John Beck, who played under Shanahan and his father Mike in Washington, has been working with Fields ahead of the 2021 draft.
Ron Veal also has been working with Fields for the past three months in Southern California, according to Silver, and is heavily involved with the QB Collective alongside the Shanahans, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay and Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur among many others.
For Fields, the combine really said it all to me. A 4.44 40 yard dash speed was very impressive for an accurate quarterback like Justin who performed well in the pocket.. Justin can through the ball accurately down field as well as hit the seams with precision. Fields has proven that he could take a beating and keep on ticking in that Clemson game. Let’s just hope these beatings do not continue unless it is done in the playoffs. 70% completion last year with a 26-6 TD/INT ratio.
Chaos: This is the spot in the draft where all of the chaos is projected to happen. Lots of teams will want to move up and down.
Projected trade: Denver Moves up to Atlanta’s number 4 spot.
The cat is out of the bag that new GM George Paton wants to take another shot at a franchise quarterback and this is a good spot to do it. Let’s face it, Atlanta needs a ton on defense only ranking 28th in opponent passing yards per attempt, and a mediocre 15th against the run. They also only ranked 31st in rushing yards per attempt and could use some offensive lineman. Atlanta did not make a big splash in free agency so I can assume that they will want more picks.
Who I thank that they will pick: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Who They should pick: Not trade up is one thing but I think that Mac Jones, QB, Alabama is a winner if it’s a QB you lost picks for.
Trey Lance – Ok, this whole Carsen Wentz thing has gotten out of hand in my opinion and I think that Lance is going to be a project. Let’s face it. North Dakota State is the best system in the FCS but it really isn’t a pro style offense. Lance produced a huge redshirt freshman season in 2019, completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also ran for 1,100 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground – his rushing yardage was actually bigger, but college football deducts sack yardage from a quarterback’s rushing totals. Trey Lance reminds me of Jordan Love who has a lot of upside but will need to be coached.
Who I think that they will pick: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Who they should pick: Trade down and get some more picks. I don’t hate this pick at all but Cincinnati needs so much and their are other top OL lurking out there.
The Bengals need so much that trading down is the best option but Penei Sewell grades out just fine but I personally do not want to take a guy this early who sat out last season. Sewell’s pro day wasn’t that great with only 30 bench presses of 225 and a shuttle of 4.68. Instead I would take Tevin Jenkins out of Oklahoma State. He is a beast who benched 36 reps and had a nice 32.5 inch vertical jump. Trading down is best though still because offensive line is loaded this year without anybody who really sticks out.
Who I think that they will pick: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Who I think that they should pick: Devonte Smith, WR, Alabama
6’5 height, 4.44 40 yard dash at 240lbs. Are you kidding me? I watched this kid play college at Florida and he was absolutely unstoppable vs any of these SEC defenses. Pitts has the best football instincts that I have seen in a pass catching tight end coming out of college since Vernon Davis. Now Pitts is a game changer for sure but I must say that I slightly favor Devonta Smith here due to the fact that Tua has played with him a few years at Bama. Don’t get me wrong, it’s close but I think that Smith is also a transcending athlete at his position comparable to an Emmanuel Sanders or maybe even with the upside of a Tyreke Hill. The Dolphins need o-line as well but the position is deep so a second round pick would be ok.
Who I think that they will pick: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Who they should pick: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Remember when the Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round? You might not see a better valued pick every again. Being that the Cam Newton experiment didn’t work, I think that it is quite obvious that the Patriots need a QB and why not Mac Jones from Alabama’s championship team. Mac showed that he can check down extremely well, he can read defenses pre and post-snap, and he can throw pretty much any rout in any situation. There is no secret that Bill Belichick and Mac’s coach Nick Saben are buddies. The two knocks on Mac Jones are that he played with the best athlete’s in college and that Alabama quarterback’s do not turn out well in the NFL. Still, 77% 41/4 TD/INT is hard to argue with.
Who I think that they will pick:: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU (2019)
Who they should pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU (2019)
JaMarr Chase is a fantastic talent and his presence will certainly help Sam Darnold’s confidence with Curtis Samuel moving on to Washington. Matt Rhule is offensive oriented and they will not be able to turn down this pick. Carolina has been very busy in the free agency market signing a bunch of tier 2 and 3 guys. Ja’Marr Chase is the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner who led the country in that season with 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdown. Ja’Marr ran a very fast 4.34 40 yard dash and he is about 30 lbs heavier than Devonta Smith so he will be favored by most teams.
Who I think that they will pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Who they should pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
So new general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith move down 5 spots to get more picks to fill some serious needs. I don’t think that the Falcons need a pass catcher more than they need defense here and, Patrick Surtain is the safest cornerback out there. Patrick ran a nice 4.42 40 and he is a great height and weight at 6’2 208 lbs. I expect him to make some noise right away.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Who I think that they will pick: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Who I think that they should pick: Trade down to get more picks
This is a tough one because Dallas needs everything and Jerry Jones is a fool when it comes to drafting. Would you really be surprised if he took Jalen Waddell here? Big D needs a lot but let’s face it, they really don’t have much of a chance this year. Dallas’s offensive line has taken a big step back so they might go in that direction. One thing that we do know is that Dallas lost Chidobe Awuzie to free agency and have yet to make up for that spot. Farley just had another back surgery so he is risky but does Jones care?
11. New York Giants
Who I think that they will pick: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Who they should pick: Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
The Giants did a good amount in free agency getting Kenny Goliday and John Ross along with a few but I think that Dave Gettleman will still continue to avoid the pass rush and draft big names. Micah Parsons is over-rated in my opinion and he is another guy that sat out last year. Pass rush is weak and not deep at all in this draft but Azeez Ojulari stands up on top of this class. Azeez fits the 3-4 defense perfectly and having 8.5 sacks last year in a tough SEC was fantastic. At 6’3, 240lbs running a 4.63 40, I think Azeez is the best Edge guy available.
Who I think that they will pick: Devonte Smith, WR, Alabama
Who they should pick: Devonte Smith, WR, Alabama
Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddell I suppose. Now I actually like the idea of putting Smith back with QB Jalen Hurts who threw to him some in 2017 and 2018, and this comradery could be good for this team. Smith was so great that we didn’t even notice that Jalen Waddell wasn’t there due to injury. The only knock on Smith is that he is a bit small, but what I say is so was Marvin Harrison when he came out back in the 90s. Smith had 23 TDs last year and over 1800 yards in a shortened season.
Who I think that they will pick: Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern
Who they should pick: Trade down but if not, Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern is a good pick.
The Wildcat’s offensive line was fantastic from 2018-2019. He was the only Tackle in the Big 10 that I saw that could somewhat contain Chase Young from Ohio State. I have to wonder how the Wildcat offense could have been better had he played. I think that Rashawn’s technique might be the best in this draft. I like the 4.91 40 and the 4.45 shuttle time as well. His only knock is that he is a little short for Tackle and his arms are only 33 inches. I like how he can play both guard and tackle positions coming into the next level. Great value pick here.
Who I think that they will pick: Alija Vera-Tucker, OT, USC
Who they should pick: Trade down and if not, pick Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Vikings did some in free agency trying to help the defense in getting Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods and Stephen Weatherly, but this D was so bad last year that I think they should trade down and get more picks. Alija Vera-Tucker is a great tackle prospect from USC. He had a nice 36 rep bench with a 5.05 40 yard dash. This will help take some pressure off Cousins but I also think that Alex Leatherwood is the safer pick from Bama.
Who I think that they will pick, Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina Who they should pick, Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
With Patrick Peterson having left for Minnesota, and the Cardinals preferring to keep Byron Murphy in the slot, drafting an outside corner make some sense. The speedy and physical Horn has the traits necessary to be a No. 1 corner in the NFL and he played against the best competition in college. The Cardinals signed Malcomb Butler for about half the Peterson price making their biggest need in my opinion is against the run. Christian Barmore is the best defensive lineman in the draft and I do not necessarily trust Steve Keim to do the right thing here. Jaycee Horn is a nice player but Barmore could help much more. I suppose I should have asked Steve Keim who he was going to pick last weekend when I saw him at coach pitch T-ball with his kid playing against my son, but I think that it is much more fun to speculate.
Who I think that they will pick, Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Who they should pick: trade down or pick Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
The Raiders had big changes in their offensive line this offseason, trading away tackle Trent Brown, guard Gabe Jackson and center Rodney Hudson. According to PFF, Darrisaw allowed zero sacks and six total pressures out of 293 pass-protecting snaps in 2020. Sports Info Solutions charged him with just one sack and seven blown blocks (four runs, three passes) which is phenomenal. Maybe general manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden know that they can address the O-line here in round 1 due to it’s depth, but they still have other voids to fill. Darrisaw is my 5th ranked OT, but I have Teven Jenkins and Alex Leatherwood both ranked higher at this position.
Who I think that they will pick: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
Who they should pick: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
Lots of mocks say the Dolphins will go edge here but they did at least rank 9th in sacks last year and the glaring need for me is to fix the run game and give Tua more protection. I think now that Chris Grier got his pass catcher, he will now put Tua in with another familiar face from Alabama in Alex Leatherwood to help give Tua more comfort in the pocket. Leatherwood is a big guy with a nice 4.94 40 time and he is familiar with the pro style offense. Leatherwood has experience at both Tackle and Guard so he knows how to turn block where Miami only ranked 29th in yards per rushing attempt.
Who I think that they will pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Who they should pick: Trade down or pick Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Washington could go a few different ways here because the need O-Line, Linebacker, Cornerback and a backup quarterback but Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah seems to be who they are targeting. Jeremiah is extremely versatile and he lined up as a slot corner for the Fighting Irish at times last season. He is fast although he didn’t run his 40 at pro day. The knock on him is that he is small and light so I like how Jamin Davis from Kentucky grades out better,.
Who I think that they will pick: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Who they should pick: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Let’s face it. Ryan Pace is the worst GM in football. He not only doesn’t understand how to build a team, he is also a very poor judge of talent through the scouting process. In saying that, his lack of knowledge makes it harder to predict what he is going to do. The Bears signed Andy Dalton and at the point that they did that, it was really their only option. I do not know if the Bears will try and trade up or down in this draft. I am not even sure that Bears vice president Ted Phillips would allow Pace to mortgage the next drafts by giving up future draft picks so I have to think that they will stay here or trade down. The Bears lost Kyle Fuller and Bobbie Massie to free agency but since they signed Desmond Trufant, I think they will go with OT and Teven Jenkins is the best one out there. I love his 6’5 frame and 4.66 shuttle drill. He might be the best tackle in the draft. The Bears might go QB later but they also might take a cornerback here.
THIS IS WHERE THE GOOD TEAMS START DRAFTING MINUS THE JETS and THE JAGS
Who I think that they will pick: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan Who they should pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
The Colts need pass rush after losing Denico Autry to the Titans. Justin Houston is also sitting unsigned and we are not sure what they will do with that one. I think that the Colts will try and address the OT Anthony Castonzo void the next round in the draft. Paye has some good measurables and he is pretty fast at a 4.51 40, but at only 6’2, he is a little short for this position. I also don’t like the fact that he only had 2 sacks last year. Jaelan Phillips from Miami is 6’5 and ran a 4’56 40 so I like him more.
Who I think that they will pick: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Who they should pick: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans addressed the pass rush by getting Bud Dupree in the offseason. Tennessee had the worst pass blockers in the league last year ranking 32nd in sack percent. Being that many of the top OTs will be already drafted by the time Tennessee comes up, I think that they will try and replace the Corey Davis vacancy with a speedy slot receiver. I personally would draft O-Line first and grab Rhondale Moore instead in the second round but that’s just me. Elijay Moore is an Ole Miss guy just like their top WR AJ Brown and this makes some sense here. Elijah ran a nice 4.35 40 yard dash on his pro day. I think that Liam Eichenberg fits the bill here because he has great measurables and is already a great run-blocking tackle. The Titans need to protect Tannehill more than give him another WR.
Who I think that they will pick: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Who they should pick: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Now that Robert Saleh has his franchise quarterback, it’s time to build on that defense and no better way to do it than getting Greg Newsome II from Northwestern. Being a Badger fan, I saw Newsome play and the kid is legit. at 6’0 and a 4.39 40 yard dash, you might not find a better CB prospect in this draft.
Who I think that they will pick: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama Who they should pick: Trade down and get an O-Line and maybe Najee or Etienne later.
Pittsburgh has some position groups to address after Maurkice Pouncey retired and Bud Dupree left in free agency, but this team likes to draft the best player available. Steelers owner Art Rooney II talked about establishing a much better run game. The Steelers ranked last in that department last year. Drafting Harris would give the Steelers a chance to feature the run game in a way they haven’t been able to since Le’Veon Bell left. Adding to the offensive line in the draft is another important part of doing so, but a deep draft class there will allow Pittsburgh to address the trenches in a later round.
Who I think that they will pick: Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia Who they should pick: Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
Now that the Jaguars have their franchise, QB, what better way to start than drafting Azeez Ojulari. He is the best Edge prospect in my opinion in this draft and he fits the 3-4 scheme that Joe Cullen ran in Baltimore. The speedy pass-rusher Ojulari had 8.5 sacks and three forced fumbles last season. As I stated earlier, Azeez fits the 3-4 defense perfectly and having 8.5 sacks last year in a tough SEC was fantastic. At 6’3, 240lbs running a 4.63 40, I think Azeez is the best Edge guy available.
Who I think that they will pick: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Who they should pick: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Davis was amazing last season with 96 tackles, three interceptions and a sack. Davis covered a lot of the field making plays. He could play any of the linebacker spots for the Cleveland 4-3 defense. Being that the Browns lost DT Larry Ogunjobi in free agency, I could also see them going that rout, but Jamin Davis makes sense and the DT position can be covered in the next round. Edge was also a need but with the signing of Jadaveon Clowny, edge is somewhat covered. The Browns are close to being a great team and they proved that vs Kansas City in the playoffs last year.
Who I think that they will pick: Jayson Oweh, edge, Penn State Who they should pick: Trading back but if not, Jayson Oweh, edge, Penn State
Trading back is best because I don’t love the rest of the Edge guys on a 3-4 defenses. After losing both Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue in free agency, the Ravens need some answers. Oweh’s lack of sacks in his final year at Penn State is not ideal, but PFF charted him as having 15 hurries and five QB hits in his seven games last season, showing that he was still affecting opposing QBs. Jason didn’t play organized football until his junior year of high school so the coaching staff can help him develop. Oweh ran a 4.36-second 40 yard dash, which is absurd for an athlete his size at 6’5 257 lbs. Oweh backed it up with a pro-shuttle time of 4.21, 21 reps at 225. He’s a freak but let’s hope that he isn’t someone who looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.
Who I think that they will pick: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Who they should pick: Trade down for more picks or Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Saints literally “GOT NO MONEY.” They lost a ton in free agency including DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Sheldon Jenkins, and CB Janoris Jenkins. I think the Saints are known for stuffing the run and will want to keep that going by picking a big guy like Barmore. I think that Christian could be a great 3 technique that could also get to the quarterback. As I stated before, Barmore is an Alabama guy who looked great last year. That last thing that I like about this pick is that rumor has it that the Tampa Bay bucks want him.
Who I think that they will pick: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Who they should pick: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Zaven Collins had a good pro day and the Packers could use someone to help stop the run. Green Bay’s only real weakness has been against the run on defense and it has showed up a few times last year. The Packers obviously could give Aaron Rodgers some more weapons but Zaven Collins is a beast at 6’4 259 pounds and I saw him make the best play of the season in OT vs Tulane. Zaven has some great football instincts and should be able to start contributing day 1.
Who I think that they will pick:Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
Who they should pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
Buffalo could use another DE with Jerry Hughes starting to show his age and Jaelan Phillips from Miami fits right in. Phillips had a phenomenal pro-day. Standing at 6’5 259 lbs, he ran a 4.56 40 which was off the charts for that size of a player. In 2020, Phillips totaled 45 tackles, eight sacks, an interception and three passes defended.
31. Baltimore Ravens (via the Chiefs)
Who I think that they will pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
Who they should pick: Samual Cosmi, OT, Texas
After the Ravens traded Pro-Bowl offensive tackle Orlando Brown to the Chiefs, it basically opened up the same hole in their team that the Chiefs had. This was a good trade for both teams because of the question, how long does Lamar Jackson really sit in the pocket before he takes off running anyways? Mayfield was a starter at right tackle for the Wolverines but also got some snaps as a fill-in left tackle as a freshman. Mayfield could be ok, but the Wolverines were pretty bad last year. Samual Cosmi had the best combine of all the Tackles with 36 reps on the bench, a 4.87 40 yard dash, and a 4.39 shuttle. Cosmi is a bit green and plays a bit high, but that can all be fixed in the next level.
Who I think that they will pick: Gregory Rousseau, edge, Miami
Who they should pick: Trade down or Gregory is fine here
What does a team do when they don’t need anything? I suppose trading down is the best thing that they can do but drafting the best player available isn’t a bad idea and I think that Gregory Rousseau fits the bill. Gregory had to sit out last season to help his parent who were front line workers during Covid. Rousseau had 15.5 sacks in 2019 and he ran a decent 4.68 40 time at 6’7 260 lbs, that is not bad at all.
TOTALS 18 Offense – 14 Defense 5 QBS 7 OLine 4 CBs 4 WRs 1 TE 1 RB 0 S
Smyly has allowed 9 runs in his first 2 starts this season. Limited sample size, but ARI is batting .382 and Slugging .765 vs Smyly (13 for 34, 3 HR)
Smyly is a slow starter. He has a career 4.71 ERA in the 1st half of the season vs a .345 ERA in the 2nd half of the season.
Ari has scored 4 or more in 7 of their last 8 games
Update #3 10:52 am
MLB
Washington at NY Mets 4:05
Ross vs Stroman
Pick: Mets Ov 4 (-120) LEAN
Saw some 4.5 at books. Grabbed this at 4 at FanDuel for Push Protection in the event the Mets only get 4. A lot of numbers for Mets against Ross but only a LEAN with my confidence not quite there with NY just yet.
Ross 6.41 ERA last 5 starts vs NYM
Ross 5.73 ERA career vs Mets
Ross has allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 starts vs NYM
NYM batting .458, .771 SLG vs Ross
Update #3 10:35 am
MLB Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs 2:20
Peralta vs Alzolay
Pick Options
MIL F5 -112 LEAN
MIL Ov 3.5 (-124) LEAN
Milwaukee has gotten to Alzolay twice this season.
Alzolay 6:10 ERA in 2 starts vs MIL
Alzolay 6.14 ERA last 7 starts
Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts by Alzolay
Peralta 2-1, 3.21 ERA last 3 vs Cubs
Peralta allowed 1 run in 2 starts vs Cubs this season
Cubs batters hitting .177, 11 for 62 vs Peralta
Update # 2 9:54 am
MLB Plays Added
MLB
CIN at STL 2:15
Miley vs Gant
Pick: STL Ov 3.5 Medium
Pick: STL -121 LEAN
CIN 4-9 last 13 at STL
STL batting .306 vs LHP last 10 games
I have been waiting for Miley to get hit and Cleveland got him for 4 runs in his last start. The STL roster is batting .346 in 76 ABs vs Miley. Goldschmidt and DeJong are slugging over .600 vs Miley. The Reds bullpen has an ERA of 6.25 the last 10 games.
This game should be a solid one but I do not understand the line move to the under here. We have some nice weather at 65 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 MPH. Joe Ross is pitching for the Nats sporting a bad 6.03 FIP so far this season and he had a 4.59 in 2020. Marcus Stroman is pitching for the Mets and he has been great so far with a 3.25 FIP but I also expect regression here at some point being that he is about a 3.7 lifetime FIP respectively. The Mets have a great bullpen ranking 3rd in FIP but the Nats have a pretty bad bullpen ranking 23rd respectively. I could see some points for especially the Mets and I also could see them get some margin here. The Mets are certainly the better hitting team so laying the points, taking the spread and taking the over.
NY Mets -177 – 1.5 star NY Mets -1.5 +110 – 1.5 star Over 8 – 2 star
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs -110 O/U 9
The Chicago Cubs scored a ton of runs yesterday winning 15-2 against the Brewers. History isn’t kind to the Cubs when this happenes. Since 2017, when the Cubs have won by a margin of 5+ runs and the team they are playing has lost by a margin of 5+ runs, the Cubs only win 41.5% of the time. Brewers Pitcher Freddy Peralta has already faced the Cubs twice allowing only 1 run in 11 innings pitched and Cubs Pitcher Albert Alzolay has faced the Brewers twice against Peralta allowing 7 runs in 10 innings. The Brewers bounce back.
There is a good chance we will se a submission this fight. Jimmy Crute is a young and hungry 28 year old and his 11 wins were by 5Kos, 4 Submissions and 3 decisions. He only has 1 loss by submission. Anthony Smith is a seasoned fighter at 32 years old with 34 wins and 16 losses. He only went to decision 5 times in his career or 1/8 of his fights. Smith loses mainly by KO at 9 times in his career, but he also has been submitted 4 times himself. When Smith wins its 18 Kos and 13 submissions and only 2 decisions. Both of these fighters have a good ground game but Crute is the better technical fighter landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute to Allen’s 2.94. Crute also will take you down at 4.33 take downs per 15 minutes to Allen’s .49. Now some of these stats are skewed due to Allen being in the UFC much longer since 2016 but the deviation here is still significant. The Odds slightly say at -145 that the fight isn’t going to go to decision, but if it happens to go to decision I think Crute wins due to his technical fighting and take down advantage for scoring points. Anthony Smith hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2018 and has went 6 fights since then. I think if he wins, it would definitely be by submission. Smith could win this fight if he catches Crute in a compromising situation. I think the best play is to take Crute for the win but also take both fighters to win by submission at +700 each for a total of about 2/5ths of your Crute bet. This way, you are up 1 unit if Smith wins by Submission and you are up 4.5 Units if Crute wins by submission. If Crute just wins by decison or KO/TKO/DQ, then it is a wash. It Smith wins this fight by KO or Decision then I will tip my cap and eat the 3 units.
Anthony Smith by submission +700 – .5 star
Jimmy Crute by submission +700 – .5 star
Anthony Crute to win at -200 – 2 stars
Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang -210
This fight is interesting to me because I actually think that Rose Namajunas is underrated. Let’s face it, Weili has pretty much OWNED the straw weight class at an amazing 20-1 record. The only fight that she has ever lost was her first one back in China in 2013 which we really can not count against her. The interesting thing to me is that even though fighters of this weight usually go to decision, both of these fighters fights usually end before that. Out of Weile’s 21 fights, there has only been 4 decisions and there has been 5 decisions out of 13 fights for Rose’s bouts. In saying this, I really do not see a ton of weakness for Weili and she usually controls all of her fights. I think Weili wins but I also think that it very much could be within the distance. I’ll grab Zhang within the distance at +195
Zhang within the distance +195 – 1 star
Karl Roberson vs Brendan Allen -155
This fight is another interesting one to me because it also has submission written all over it. Karl Roberson is 9-3 and his only losses where him getting submitted 3 times. He seems to get caught rather easily. Most of his wins were by submission as well but I think he is stepping up to a better fighter in Brendan Allen. Allen is 15-4 with 5 KOs, 8 Submissions and 2 decisions. I am going to take a shot that Allen catches Roberson in the ground game wide open. The odds kinda tell you that it is quite plausible being only +175
Brendon Allen to win by Submission +175 – 1 star premium shared
