I’ll bet you are sick and tired about hearing about the Red Sox aren’t you? Well too bad because we have to do it one more time here. We have 2 lefties facing off against each other at the helm with Boston’s Martin Perez with a 4.27 FIP so far this year against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi with a 4.25 FIP. Yusei had the better 2020 season but he was also in a much easier American League West division. I am going to keep this short and sweet. For me, there are two key things. For one, Boston hits better against lefties ranking 13th in WRC+ to Seattle’s 26th respectively. Two, Boston is the better hitting team ranking number 1 in WRC to Seattle’s 19th. Boston also has the better bullpen to add some fuel to the fire. I’m taking the Red Sox at home to bounce back from last night’s crumble.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson – Seriously Jets? I haven’t seen this kind of leadership out of someone who started as a true Freshman. Lawrence is the epitome of solid and I do not think that he had that great of an O-line or WRs last year. Lawrence knows when to take off running with the ball which is a quality that not many NFL quarterbacks possess. He also knows how to get down and avoid injury. His 6’6 frame allows him to see over the offensive line with ease. A 70% completion and a 24-5 TD/INT ratio on a shortened season was great. Lawrence has the highest ceiling, and more importantly, the highest floor in this draft.
Justin Fields, Ohio State – The NFL Pro-Day really said it all to me. 4.44 40 yard dash speed was amazing for a QB that can check down the ball. Justin can throw the ball accurately down field as well as hit the seams with precision. Fields has proven that he could take a beating and keep on ticking in that Clemson game. Let’s just hope these beatings do not continue unless it is done in the playoffs. A 70% completion last year with a 26-6 TD/INT ratio was fantastic.
Zach Wilson, BYU – The kid from BYU that wowed everybody. Zach had a 73.5 completion percentage and a 33-3 TD to interception ratio. Can’t argue with that. BYU had an absolutely amazing year and I still wonder that if they would have ended up beating Coastal Carolina, that they would have been a massive playoff disruptor. Zach is more of a traditional QB at 6’3 210lbs. I actually think that it would have fit him better to be taller. My biggest issue with the kid is that BYU only had a strength of schedule ranking 104th in the nation. Were they better than many power 5 teams? Yes but they haven’t had to face much adversity. Zach can be a very dangerous quarterback and I think that he makes it in the NFL, but I also think that he could end up as a backup if the team that he gets drafted by doesn’t take advantage of his skillset.
Mac Jones, QB Alabama – 77% 41/4 TD/INT. Are you kidding me? Ok, I know Alabama guys do not really turn out in the NFL, but I saw a lot of Joe Burrow in this guy last year, and Mac was able to make very quick decisions with some smooth check downs after the snap. Has he had the best of the best to play with? Well yes, but he still didn’t look flawed while he was out there. Mac performed at the highest level with the most pressure on the biggest stage. Lets hope the Bears don’t draft him so he doesn’t become ruined.
Kyle Trask, Florida – The kid’s a winner. He did everything that he could to try and beat Alabama but he just didn’t have the defense to do it. Did he have great pass catchers? Sure, but he also won some big games vs Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. What helped bring Trask into my top 5 was his size at 6’5 240lbs, and his decision making in the pocket. Some cons against him are the fact that he was in a spread system in Florida and was somewhat scheme dependent. 68.9% completions with 43/8 TD/INT is fantastic.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M – Another 6’3 quarterback in this draft but what Kellen has over some of the guys that I have ranked over him is experience in a pro-style offense at Texas A&M. I must say that I whiffed on this team and thought that Mond didn’t have the confidence to step up to some of the teams that they have beaten. Mond played fantastic football and showed great poise beating Florida, LSU, at Auburn and North Carolina in their bowl game with ease. My only crack against Mond is that he had a little bit lower completion percentage of 63.3% and 19 touchdowns. Mond at least only had 3 interceptions so that’s good.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State – Finally we get to the FCS level quarterback that some have in their top 2 or 3. Ok, this whole Carsen Wentz thing has gotten out of hand in my opinion and I think that Lance is going to be a project. Let’s face it, North Dakota State is the best system in the FCS but it really isn’t a pro style offense. Lance produced a huge redshirt freshman season in 2019, completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also ran for 1,100 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground. Trey Lance reminds me of Jordan Love who has a lot of upside but will need to be developed and coached.
Davis Mills, Stanford – Davis is another QB that could make some noise in the NFL. He stands 6’4 weighing in at 210 lbs. Mills quietly led the Cardinal to a nice 4-2 record last year with 5 of his 6 games all away from home. The good thing for Mills is that he was in a pro-style offense at Stanford and he completed over 65% of his passes over the last 2 years. His skill sets might translate well into NFL offenses, and with some improvement in making decisions in the pocket, he could be very dangerous for some teams.
Sam Ellinger, Texas – I am going to miss this kid playing Texas football. Sam was the best thing that this team has had over the last 4 years and he has the heart of a champion. Sam can take a big hit and he also can run the ball. I think that if Texas could have kept a decent team around Sam without losing guys to the NFL, injuries and transfers, his draft stock could have been a lot higher. Sam has a nice 6’3 frame at 230lbs. His completion percentage dipped a bit from 65% to 60% last year but he had very nice performances against Oklahoma and Iowa State only losing those games by single digits. Sam was also a big part in beating Oklahoma State last year and ruining their playoff dreams. If Sam can improve as a pocket passer, he will be a very interesting player in the NFL.
Ian Book, Notre Dame – Who’s Wheaties did this kid piss in to be projected to not get drafted by many of these analysts. The kid only helped make Notre Dame extremely relevant over the past few years and he has huge wins vs Clemson and North Carolina. When Book hit the post season games, Clemson and Alabama’s great defensive play certainly didn’t help him much being that he was under pressure most of the game, but the real reason why he has dropped so much in this draft is his size at 6’0 212 lbs and his flat footed speed. Ian’s 65% completion percentage and 15/3 TD/Int ratio looks very good on paper but he did have an easier ACC schedule. One thing that I noticed when watching Ian is that he can throw the seam route, which is very important in the NFL, and he can check down to his other pass catching receivers. Ian came from a pro-style offense which should translate very well in the league. I think that Ian definitely has a low floor in the NFL being that he is so small but he also has a high ceiling. Ian is a leader and he has proved it on the field many times over. I remember another QB his size that came out of Purdue that had a similar skill set and talent level. His name was Drew Breese.
We have a great show for you today! Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny is back to break down UFC 261 Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman with some great info and free plays. First, Kiev O’Neil flies solo to go over our mock draft! What do teams need? Who do we think that they will pick and who do we think that they should pick? Then, Cub fan Danny comes on to break down some of the big fights for this pay per view event. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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Remember when many of us thought that the Yankees were the team to beat in the American League? Well here we are 3 weeks into the season and NY is dead last at 6-11. Now you really can’t blame the pitching here because the Yanks are number 1 in Bullpen ERA at 2.28 and number 2 in FIP at 3.02. It’s the hitting that ranks 28th in WRC+ and dead last in OPS. Now Cleveland was the worst hitting team in baseball last year and there was some slight improvement this year putting the Indians at ranking 23rd in WRC+, but I have to think that there won’t be much improvement from there. It is a very windy day in Cleveland and the direction is right into the right field foul territory. The game time temperature is a brisk 45 degrees. I think that this total is a bit high for what these teams have showed thus far juxtaposed with nature’s grave conditions. Aaron Civale is a solid pitcher with a decent ERA of 2.18 thus far in 2021. His FIP could be better but it isn’t terrible at 4.3. Domingo German has started out bad this year, but I imagine that the pressure must be on and he is due for some positive regression. Grabbing the under.
I’m writing this on a plane with a Bloody Mary beside my laptop so, things are in full bachelor party mode as I cruise south (not mad about it). Not my best showing yesterday but we’ll try to make up for it here on a thirsty Thursday. Onto my picks!
Suns -3 (-115), 1.15 units: At first glance you would think this is a better spot for Boston. Off a hard-fought win last night in Philly, where the Suns once again proved how elite and how resilient they are, Phoenix has to turn around only 24 hours later and face a Celtics team that’s looked much better the past 2 weeks. And Boston is at home. Advantage Boston, right? I don’t see it that way. Firstly, the Suns are the considerably better team. They now sit at top 6 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they could edge out the Jazz as the #1 seed in the playoffs if they continue playing at this level. They’re also healthy and they’ll get a rare 3 day rest after tonight’s game. The Celtics have to turn around and travel to the Barclays Center tomorrow night to face the Nets– it’s absolutely reasonable to imagine they’re looking ahead and more concerned about that game. With mounting injuries and uncertainties heading into tonight for the home team, I have to take Phoenix once again. If this lose, so be it, but they’ve been a top 5 ATS team all year. Go Suns!
76ers +8 if all starters play (-110), 1.5 units: I called it on my podcast and the books agree– this could be a prime spot for the Bucks to boat-race the Eastern Conference leading Sixers. That being said this is way too many points, even off a back to back, if all the Sixers starters play. The latest updates are telling me that Simmons and Harris are probable and there are no signs that Embiid will sit, so I have to side with Philly. If this line drops to under 5, I’d be on Milwaukee.
Spurs -8 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s a reason why this line is inflated. San Antonio is in a great spot, at home, and they need wins to remain in the playoff hunt. The Spurs are 53.6% ATS after a loss and should blowout a vastly inferior team. Should.
Lakers +3.5 (-110), 2 units: The return of “The Brow” will make a big difference tonight. Besides their leader Lebron still sitting on the sidelines (although he’ll undoubtedly be coaching up and motivating his team), the Lakers are getting really healthy and that means they’ll be very dangerous from this point on, assuming they remain healthy. Anthony Davis brings an expectation of at least 20 points and more importantly, he’s an elite defender and shark at the rim. That will make things really difficult for Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas front court. LAL’s guards are more than capable of giving Luka a tough time, too. Look for an upset here tonight– this is a rejuvenated Lakers unit off 2 days of rest and with one of their stars back in the lineup, which means less pressure and more room for the supporting cast to over-perform. I’m all over LAL.
A lovely 2-1 day yesterday (probably a 3-0 day if Kawhi didn’t sit) adds to our 57% win rate in the association. Like I said in my MLB article today,please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Onto today’s plays!
Suns -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I think this line isn’t completely wrong even if the 76ers are completely healthy. At home and with all their starters, I guess it would be closer to a pick-em or Philly -1, and in that case I’d like Phoenix even more. Still, the Suns are about as consistent and resilient as it gets in the NBA. They’re also one of the most balanced (6th in offensive efficiency, 5th in defensive efficiency). If Simmons and Harris both play this would be a tougher line to cover, but I have a feeling Simmons will sit again. To still be questionable due to an illness, with everything happening in a new COVID world, the odds are he’ll sit. It isn’t often you get Phoenix at a reduced line and most games end beyond one-possession leads. I’m on the Suns.
Bulls-2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bulls aren’t a great team but they deserve more respect than this. Without Zach LaVine they don’t have as much depth but Vucevic has held Chicago on his broad shoulders in their last two wins. The Bulls habitually defeat inferior teams and this should be no different. Plus, they still have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Bet daaaaa Bulls.
Warriors/Wizards under 240.5 (-110), 1 unit: Usually I champion big totals like this but the Warriors have a sneaky good defense. The pace war (Washington is #1 and Golden State is #2 in tempo) worries me a bit, but I could see this being a chippy game with big superstars like Curry and Beal and Westbrook showing some extra zeal on defense. Again, these teams look in the mirror and they each other– they’re high tempo teams predicated on excellent shooting (which obviously doesn’t always work out, just check their records). Something has to give and I wouldn’t be shocked if one team threw a wrench in the others’ expectations and slowed the game down. I’ll take a surprising under, but just for 1 unit.
Lean, Jazz 11 (-110): Houston’s been a little feisty lately and they’re at home in a good spot, so this is just a lean. Towards the end of the season, as we are, hefty favorite lines aren’t as inconceivable to hit. This should be a blowout.
Hawks/Knicks under 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Atlanta is one of the more efficient offenses in the league (8th in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics) but that won’t scare New York. I want to take the Knicks side, of course, since they’ve now won 7 straight and even more importantly for us, they’ve covered 10 straight. Love me some Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, and their defense is an ode to the past and a lot of fun to watch. But Atlanta is no chump these days, either. The Hawks have quietly won 9 of their last 11 games and they look like a very complete team. Capela has been DOMINANT under the rim, averaging an insane 17.5 rebounds in his last 6 games. On the season he averages 14.5. That’s impressive shit. Instead of taking a side here, I think an under play is the better bet. This should be a testy game with a playoff feel and I think the Knicks can control the pace. If the first half flies over the total, look to hit a live under. New York loves to slow down the tempo and dominate defensively in the second halves of games.
Mavericks -10.5 (-110), 2 units: Great spot for Dallas here. Off two losses and in need of wins to stay in playoff contention, the Mavericks head home after 2 days of rest and they get a nice little gift in the Pistons. Normally a let-down angle would be part of a lopsided game like this but Dallas can’t risk a 3-game slide, especially not with an increasingly healthy Lakers squad visiting tomorrow and Saturday. This needs to be a get-right, feel-good game for Dallas and I expect max-effort in this contest. The Pistons, although tough at times, shouldn’t be able to keep up. We just need a tiny bit more than a simple double-digit win for this to hit, which feels very reasonable.
We have a fantastic show for you today! NFL insider Mr. Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL from the Ross Tucker family of podcasts, contributor for CBS Sports and Westwood One comes back to break down the NFL draft and of course some of the prop plays that the books have graciously put out for us. First, Kiev gets into his Top 10 pre-draft quarterback rankings and why they are important. Then, Kiev discusses why his rankings are different than some of the other scouts and experts. Next, Ross comes on and the guys get right into why this draft will be so volatile. Then, Ross and Kiev talk about position groups. Which positions are the strongest and deepest? Which positions are the weakest and the most top heavy? Next, we get into some of the draft props with some free plays and lots of speculation. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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Welp, a nice little ass kicking from MLB sends us to hump day (although the Reds game isn’t over yet); happy to get a little redemption today. Please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily NBA and MLB picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Anywho, onto today’s plays!
Marlins first 5 (-180), 1.8 units: This is an inflated line for a reason. Young gun Trevor Rogers takes the mound for Miami and he’s looked the part. His breaking ball is a work in progress but the 6’5″ 23 year old has a cannon for an arm and a 2.87 FIP in 2021 over 15 innings pitched. Miami, looking for revenge after last night’s tough loss against Baltimore, faces off against Orioles pitcher Bruce Zimmermann. Ol’ Bruce still has too many command issues for my liking, including a proclivity for allowing deep hits in the outfield. Give me the Marlins in the first half.
Tigers win Game 1 (-132), 1.5 units: Tyler Anderson has looked pretty awful thus far this season, giving up 19 hits and 3 homers in just 3 starts. Michael Fulmer and his 0.67 WHIP should be a good catalyst for a Detroit team that’s had a really tough schedule to this point and isn’t as bad as their record indicates. Against the volatile and struggling Pirates, I’ll take the Tigers 7/10 times in this situation, which means it’s an auto-bet.
Astros (-140), 2 units: Jose Urquidy hasn’t had a stellar start to this season but what he’s shown in recent past is nothing short of exceptional. His ability to limit homeruns this year is particularly noteworthy at only 0.56 per 9 innings over 3 starts– that’s a good thing for a game at Coors Field. Austin Gomber, on the other hand, is known for his “fly ball” pitching but that could quickly deteriorate against a hungry Astros team coming off a loss in the thin air of Denver. Give me the way better lineup, rotation, and overall team to bounce back Wednesday and get a victory on the road.
Twins/Athletics under 7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Minnesota vs Oakland displays two pitchers in Kenta Maeda and Frankie Montas that are due for some significant positive regression. I’d lean the Twins here, who have more consistent bats and I like Maeda more, but I think this is a great spot in low-altitude Oakland to chase two pitchers who are significantly better than what they’ve shown thus far. The books are daring us to take the over here– I’m happy to stiff-arm that and ride the under instead. Nice try, Joe Bookie.
The Celtics and 76ers– yikes. At least those overs cashed last night. Just 3 plays for me on a rather light NBA card. Onto the picks!
Knicks -5.5 (-115), 2 units: The Knicks are getting a little inflated line here and guess what– I AGREE with it. Charlotte is a tough team in their own right but the Knicks, especially at home, are not a team I’d want to face right now. New York continues to stifle opposing offenses, even good ones like Memphis, Dallas and New Orleans, and if they can’t completely stifle them they push the game into OT and then win. Julius Randle is to the Eastern Conference what Steph Curry is for the Western Conference right now, dominating and willing his team into the playoffs. During New York’s current 6 game win streak, Randle has averaged 30.6 ppg. He’s also led the Knicks in rebounding in 8 of their last 11 games. The Hornets aren’t built to defend or score on teams like the Knicks. Well-balanced but not especially good in any one category, Charlotte has struggled in April, losing 6 out of their last 10 contests and only recently ending a 4 game losing streak. After a nice win over Portland, the Hornets begin a short road trip at Madison Square Garden tonight, while the Knicks stay at home all week. I’ll take the Knicks to cover and overrun the Hornets in one that could get ugly. The Knicks have ALL the momentum.
Nets/Pelicans over 235, 1 unit: This is a huge number but it’s not high enough. Brooklyn is too small to deal with Zion and the Pelicans won’t have an answer for the perimeter shooting of Joe Harris and Landry Shamet. Kyrie doesn’t mind the limelight and he’ll look to improve his performance after that late-game debacle against Miami. With our luck he’ll announce he’s sitting out 5 minutes before tip-off, but neither of these clubs are good enough on defense to stop the other. And they both match up well offensively. This feels like a clear 240s+ so I have to put a unit on the over.
Clippers -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This has blowout written all over it. Watch out for game-time news on random players sitting, what else is new, but a Lillard-less Blazers team facing the Clippers, who have looked almost just as good without all their stars, is not a good recipe for Portland. The Blazers are at home and they have Denver coming to town tomorrow. The Clippers return home Wednesday to face Memphis. If Kawhi and Paul George play or even just one of them does, I like the Clippers side here.
