9-11 in College Football and 7-4 in the NFL last week. First, Kiev talks about how badly Wisconsin blew it last weekend and why it happened. What does this mean for playoff hopes? Next we do a College and NFL recap of last week. Then, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Next, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 9. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 9! D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 8. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 8.
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NFL Logo is seen on the goal post padding before an NFL preseason football game between the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets at Ford Field in Detroit, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Baltimore vs Seattle -3.5 O/U 49
Here is a spot where I believe I am catching a little bit of value. Seattle used to be the best home field in football but my how some things change. Seattle has played 3 home games this year. They struggled to beat Cincinnati and barely won that game by 1 point, they lost outright to a Teddy B led Saints team, and they beat the Rams by 1 point due to a 42 yard missed FG by Legatron. A Brutal 0-3 ATS. Now they face a Baltimore team that hasn’t had that hard of a schedule either but they perform decent on the road. Seattle happens to run the ball a lot but Baltimore’s strength has shown against the run allowing the 8th fewest yards this year. Seattle also lost their insurance playmaker in Will Dissley for the season. Ravens are relatively healthy with Marquis Brown most likely back to strech the field. These 2 teams are pretty equal in yards per play Russell Wilson is the MVP in my opinion this year but I think that the Ravens have a shot to win this game.
Baltimore +3.5 – 2 premium
Kansas City vs Denver +3 O/U 48.5 – Game past but was from Podcast
At what point in the season will you find more value on Kansas City? I don’t know myself because they lost 2 games in a row but they still have most of their skill positions and one of the best QBs in football. Denver has shown very well the last few weeks beating the banged up chargers and a bad Titans team but in reality, we all know that Denver isn’t a team built to come back should be be down a few TDs or so. Even with all of the Chief’s woes they still rank 3rd in overall DVOA while Denver ranks 18th. It’s not like the Broncos are not without their injuries losing Bryce Callahan this week and Tackle Juwan James. Emanual Sanders is also banged up and we can’t forget that Bradly Chubb is out for the season. This is a straight value play here for me and I have to take the Chiefs. No offense is better at 7 yards per play and KC also has a .9 Net yards per play advantage.
Kansas City -3 – 3 star premium shared
Houston vs Indianapolis -1 O/U 47.5
I cover this one with Marco on the podcast. I want to fade Houston here. They beat a terrible Falcons team 2 weeks ago and last week got revenge on an ailing Kansas City team. Everyone remembers that Raiders loss but that loss doesn’t look so bad after the Raiders played the Bears. We have to remember that the Colts beat the Chiefs as well before the bye. I have to fade the BIll O’Brian in a let down spot from beating the Chiefs and get on the Colts after this bye week with extra time to prepare. My ace in the hole here is that Darius Leonard will be back who can fire up a defense. Last year he led the league in tackles. Houston has some injuries to their Cornerbacks as well as their offensive line. This is also a power ratings play because I have Houston only a slight favorite on a neutral field.
The good news is that our newsletter was perfect last week for +5u. The bad news is that the in-game wagers I released were not, including an absolutely I’m-tilting-my-face-off ending in the Monday night game that caused a nearly eight-unit swing for us. I’ve taken bad beats before, but that ranks up there with the worst. You can DM me if you really want to know what happened, or check my twitter feed (@jksportsbets), but man am I still sour about that one. And the worst news of all? We’re now just over halfway through the fantasy regular season! Enjoy it while it lasts because, like every year, you’ll blink, and it’ll be Christmas. You’ll be standing at the fireplace drinking your eggnog and wondering where the good times went.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 10 AM Pacific
This is a pick ‘em game, and I’m not sure I fully understand the logic of it. The Texans would only be three-point favorites in a neutral site? They’re coming off a huge road win in Kansas City where they looked damned impressive. They did look terrible against the Panthers in week four, but after that game Watson spent hours on the field practicing with the coaching staff because he knew how bad he had played. In the two games since then, Watson has posted a near 118 QBR on average, and now face a Colts defense allowing an average QBR of 108 against. The Texans defensive weakness is through the air, but they still hold opponents to only 7.3 Y/A, while Brissett is averaging only 6.4 Y/A this year. The Colts have faced the 9th easiest SOS so far, while the Texans have had the 6th hardest. I expect the Texans to take a lead into the locker room and win the game.
HOU Texans ML/PK, (-103), 2u
HOU Texans ML (1st Half), (+100), 1u
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 10 AM Pacific
Last week Goff passed for 78 yards. Yes, two digits, not three. It was one of the worst performances I’ve seen by a starting QB all year. The Niners defense seems legit, sure, but you must do better than that. Fortunately for the Rams, the Falcons are like a magical cure for whatever is ailing your offense. By far league-worst is nearly every defensive statistic, it has been what has made Matt Ryan a top three fantasy play this year so far. The total is at 54.5, which is a little high for me, although I can definitely see the over hitting. But attack the spread here. The Rams come in at only 2.5-point favorites, largely due to recent performance. Recency bias is a thing even in Vegas. There are three keys here for the Rams. One, the Falcons are really, really bad. Two, the Rams as a whole (and especially Goff) do much better when Gurley is on the field. Three, the Falcons are REALLY, REALLY bad. Gurley is playing Sunday, so this is a great spot for everyone, especially Brandin Cooks (play him in DFS). The Rams should be favorites of five or six, but last week’s performance was so bad they’ve been brought down. Use it to your advantage.
LA Rams -2.5, (-125), 3u
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 1:05 PM Pacific
We’re going back to the well, which I expect to do several times this year. The Titans have gone under in five in a row. The Chargers have gone under in five in a row. The Titans haven’t hit an over at home this year. The Chargers haven’t hit an over on the road this year. The Titans have only scored more than 20 twice this year, against the Falcons (please) and the Browns in week one. The Chargers have only scored more than 20 twice this year, against the Dolphins (lol) and the Texans. Those four defenses ranked in terms of total points allowed this year? Texans, 15th worst. Browns, 9th worst. Dolphins, 3rd worst. Falcons, worst. All four of these defenses are in the bottom half of nearly every statistical defensive category. Meanwhile the Titans have the league’s fifth stingiest defense while the Chargers have the league’s ninth. The Chargers offense is struggling. They don’t have chemistry with MG3 yet. The Titans don’t know the name of their quarterback. This is a smash spot. Give it everything.
LA Chargers/TEN Titans UNDER 41, (-110), 3u
LA Chargers/TEN Titans UNDER 37.5, (+146), 1u
LA Chargers TT UNDER 19.5, (+100), 1u
TEN Titans TT UNDER 20.5, (-105), 1u
Fade of the week:
Buffalo, -17.5 and Green Bay, -4.5 – The Bills are 17.5-point favorites. It doesn’t matter that it’s the Dolphins. It’s the Bills. Be careful here. I can’t bring myself to bet on the Dolphins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they cover in a low-scoring game. Meanwhile, the Pack are likely down to Jake Kumerow as their #1 WR and the Raiders are actually not terrible against the run.
Parlay of the week:
HOU ML, BUF/MIA UNDER 41, OAK ML, CIN/JAX OVER 43.5, LAR ML, LAC/TEN UNDER 41, SF -10.5, NO ML (+36689)
Give that Twitter handle a follow (@jksportsbets) and get the alarm bell on so we can profit even more from the in-game plays. Best of luck, enjoy your football and your fantasy football, and I’ll see you next Friday!
So I got burned on Army last week and I should have paid more attention to Western Kentucky’s run defense allowing 3 yards per rush. I am not going to let that affect me this week. Instead I am going with the same theory of Georgia State isn’t good against the triple option and they can’t stop the run. The Panthers allow 5.6 yards per rush this year and they haven’t even faced a good rushing team. Last year Georgia State lost to Georgia Southern who is another option team by over 20 points. Army on the other hand still has a pretty good defense allowing only 5.2 yards per play and 21 points per game against teams like Michigan, Tulane and Western Kentucky. This is a complete matchup play eliminating possessions from the Panthers who needs to play at a fast pace. Georgia State averages 2nd in pace of play at 85 plays per game while Army is 3rd from last at 61. Last stat I am going to give you is that the Panthers are 4-2 this year yet they are over -1 in net yards per play. This one is easy for me and I am calling out the fraud here. I am taking Army.
Army -6.0 – 2.5 star premium shared – Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me
Florida vs South Carolina +5.5 O/U 48.5
Everyone is asking how Florida will get up for this game after the LSU game. It can go 2 ways. The can look defeated on offense or they really step it up knowing if they win out, that they are in the playoffs. One thing i do know is that their defense WILL show up. Even counting that tough LSU game their defense only allows 14 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. South Carolina on the other hand is in a HUGE let down spot after beating Georgia and they have all some of their skill positions banged up and questionable for this weeks game. QB Ryan Hilinki is also banged up but will play. Another thing that you can’t ignore about this game is that South Carolina has only been allowing 23 points per game and 5.3 yards per play while they have played the hardest schedule in football in Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri. Due to Hilinski’s injury I see a lot of running the ball here and even if Florida’s offense does show up, they still are just middle of the road in points per game and yards per play. SCs defense will step it up at home.
Under 48.5 points gets it down for 2 stars premium shared
Clemson vs Louisville +23.5 O/U 60.5
Clemson has been disrespected in the marketplace after almost losing to North Carolina. For the first time in a very long time the Tigers are not a top 2 team according to the AP and many power ratings out there. Trevor Lawrence isn’t even in Feisman discussion. This if anything should motivate them to put up some points with all of their studs like Tee Higgens and Travis Etienne. The question for me here is not if Louisville can cover this spread, it is if Louisville can score 21 points. It is true that Clemson is 3rd in defense in yards per game and 7th in points per game but who have they played? The answer is NOBODY in the top 40 in yards per game! Louisville ranks 17th at 480 yards per game, 19th in yards per play and 21st in points per game at 36.4. Clemson is averaging 39 themselves while shutting it down in most 4th quarters. Louisville is at home here and I expect a lot of points this game. Take the over.
We have a fantastic show for you today! Marco D’Angelo from Wagertalk.com is back to break down some HUGE games! First, Marco talks about some of the changes that have happened since sports betting has been legalized. Next, We get into some of the difference that we have noticed from this years football season from last years in both College and the NFL. Then, Marco and Kiev break down some big games in College and NFL football as well as give you some great plays for this weekend! Next, Kiev gives out a few plays of his own for college week 8 and NFL week 7. Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA
UNLV vs Fresno State – Penn State vs Michigan – Clemson vs Louisville – Tulane vs Memphis and more!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
Virginia vs Miami – Virginia outgained Miami by 53 yards let lost by 8. Bad Red Zone efficiency for Virginia
Memphis vs Temple – Memphis outgained Temple by 36 yards but 4-2 turnover ratio hurt them.
South Carolina vs Georgia – Meant to be? Georgia outgained South Carolina by 171 yards and should have won this game. 30-16 in first downs. 36 to 24min time of possession. the 4-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan – Miami outgained Western Michigan by 55 yards but 4-2 turnover ratio and bad efficiency killed them. Pissed me off!
Oklahoma vs Texas – Oklahoma outgained Texas by 157 yards but 2-0 turnovers let Texas cover the spread.
BYU vs South Florida – BYU outgained South Florida by 134 yards and won the turnover ratio 2-1 yet still lost by 4. Screwed my bet. I should have won the -6 based om those stats. Terrible
Cincinnati vs Houston – Houston outgained Cinci by 30 yet lost by 15 due to a 5-1 turnover ratio. Brutal
Middle Tennessee vs Florida Atlantic – Middle Tennessee outgained FAU by 95 yards yet lost by 15 a 3-0 turnover ratio
Louisville vs Wake Forest – Wake Forest outgained Louisville by 148 yards and only a 3-2 turnover ratio yet lost by 3.
Penn State vs Iowa – Iowa Outgained Penn State by 62 yards yet lost by 5. 2-0 turnover ratio did them in and bad red zone efficiency. Missed FG as well
Overall went 1 and 2 last week and because of that ended up a few total units down. Glad I followed my own advice and wagered small. At least we left Dega just a little down, unlike half the field with tore up race cars.
Brad Keselowski -115 vs Kyle Larson -115
I like this one for a few reasons. Brad has a win 2 top 5s and 3 top 10s in his last 5 Kansas races. During that same span Larson has 2 top 5s and 4 top 10s. Brads average finish is 7.2 while Larsons is 12.00. That includes a 39th place finish. However, in those last 5 Brad would have beaten Larson 4 out of 5 times in a head to head match up. Keselowski is still fighting for a place in the round of 8 while Larson has his ticket punched. I am taking Keselowski in a 15 unit wager.
Aric Almirola -115 vs Daniel Suarez -115
This match up involves a couple of teammates who are headed in different directions I am afraid. I have been fading Suarez these last couple months and for good reason. I think Custer is going cup racing in 2020 and its either going to be the 14 or the 41 and I just read where the 14 has a tentative deal in place so the 41 might be it. However let’s get back to this match up. In the last 5 double A has an average of 15.6 while Suarez has 21.8. Double A would have beat Suarez 4 out of those 5 times and I am going to go with 5 out of 6 in a 20 unit wager on AA!
One more intriguing matchup is the Keselowski -115 vs Logano -115. Logano has an average of 15.6 in his last 5 and Keselowski has beat him 4 out of the last 5 as well. Logano seems to struggle at Kansas while BK doesn’t. Just throwing this out there. I will probably put a small wager of 5 units here as well.
Keep checking back with me on twitter to see the latest on these matchups as well as possibilities of additional info and picks.Don’t forget to check out theoddsbreakers latest podcast Playing The Odds Nascar style, for some history, track facts, and trends and an additional pick! If you like what you hear shoot me a message on twitter @NASCARstyleodds. Until next week, keep researching, keep reading, and keep winning.
8-8 in College Football and 5-3-1 in the NFL on Sunday. We first start by recapping NFL week 6. Kiev give’s you his MVP of the league! Then, we get into College Football week 7 and discuss where Wisconsin lies in the top 10! Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 8. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 8! D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 7. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 7.
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
