We have a great show for you today! Kiev is back from vacation and had another successful weekend in sports betting! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in football. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? In the NFL, which 1 loss teams are overrated and which 1 win teams are underrated? Next, we get into College Football misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 7. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 7! Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
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Arizona vs NY Jets +6.5 O/U 47– The Jets are bad and when I say bad, I mean the worst team in the NFL. I am not sure their coach survives Adam Gase much longer. It’s not just the fact that they commit the most personal fouls or having a 14 point average loss margin, they just look disorganized and don’t seem to care. Another big problem for them is that their quarterback Sam Darnold has a banged up shoulder and might not play. Joe Flacco would have to come in to start if Darnold can’t go. The good news for the Jets is that they at least get some guys back from IR like Laveon Bell, Blake Cashman and Denzel Mims. The Cardinals are hungry after suffering a 2 game losing streak at home. This is somewhat of a must win for them being that they have the Cowboys on deck and I expect a good effort this game. The Cardinals should be able to get their running game going with Kenyon Drake against a bad Jets defense. This should also compliment play action where Murray can just take off running instead of passing the ball. I have the Cardinals an 8.5 favorite here and should be able to cover the 6.5.
Arizona -6.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Carolina vs Atlanta -1.5 O/U 54 – This 0-4 Atlanta team is desperate and I still think that they are better than the Carolina Panthers as a whole and especially are at home. The Falcon’s owned the Panthers last year winning both games by double digits and I expect close to the same here. Even with Julio being banged up all year the Falcons are 8th in Yards per game at 396 to Carolina’s 390. One thing that I will say is that the Panthers are better than people have thought going to LA Chargers and Arizona winning both games outright. Mike Davis seems like a nice fit replacing an Injured Christian McCaffery. There is one thing that sticks out the most to me when looking at these teams. Atlanta has had a much harder schedule than Carolina ranking 3rd on Jeff Sagarin while the Panther’s schedule ranked 15th. Carolina was able to surprise some teams but they will be facing a team similar to the Raiders this week and they lost that game at home. I like Atlanta with the short favorite.
Atlanta -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play
LV Raiders vs Kansas City -13 O/U 56.5
No reason for the Chiefs to get margin here and I think the W will just be fine. As of recently, a player who hugged Patrick Mahomes in Stephon Gilmore just tested positive for Covid so there is a lot of uncertainty this game. The Raiders on the other hand are in a must perform type spot after suffering 2 bad losses in a row. Las Vegas has been smitten by some injuries to some key players but I expect Henry Ruggs to be back along with some guys on D this game. The Raiders are a net negative .4 yards per play but the Chiefs are only a positive .5 at this point and that is bad but not 13 points bad. My power ratings have the Chief’s by 10.25 points so this spread is a little to high.
LV Raiders +12.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
2-2 in Teasers: Refuse to Lose Teaser – Saints down to -1.5 hosting the Chargers and the Steelers to -1 hosting the Eagles.
Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 8 Legs and pays 6.6 -1
Alabama -2000, TCU -305, Liberty -1050, Notre Dame -1400, Charlotte -145, Florida Atlantic -131, Pittsburgh Steelers -325, Seattle Seahawks -315
Louisville still isn’t a good team and shouldn’t be laying over 3 points to anyone in the ACC on the road. Both of these teams are 1-2 and played a medium type schedule. Louisville has a +.23 net yards per play and Georgia Tech has a +.11 yards per play. Both teams have big look ahead situations with Tech having Clemson on deck and Louisville having Notre Dame. I can easily see Tech covering this spread at home and possible winning outright.
Georgia Tech +4.5 – 1.5 star premium shared and sprinkle –
Texas Tech vs Iowa State -12.5 O/U 64.5 – Iowa State is in a huge let down spot after beating Oklahoma outright at home. This could mean 2 things. You could get a bad offense out of them and/or a bad defense. The good news is that Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman might not be playing this game due to an injury which could slow down this high powered Tech offense. Another thing that could slow things down is that Iowa State plays a slow game. They don’t want to get into any shootouts and they prefer to run the ball. The Cyclones rank 4th slowest team so far at 60 offensive plays per game. I can see a much more methodical game played here and this total is too high.
Texas Tech/Iowa State under 64.5 – 2.5 star premium shared
FAU vs Southern Miss +2.5 O/U 58 –
This number was bought down too low here in my opinion. While I do not love the FAU coach here in Willy Taggert, Southern Miss is a pretty bad team. The Eagles allowed over 60 points to Tulane at home a few weeks back. FAU is coming off of a great season last year but they had to replace a good amount of that production. The Owls only have 1 game on their belt but it was a victory nonetheless vs a Charlotte team who is better than the Golden Eagles. FAU is +.3 net yards per play and Southern Miss is -.64 playing an easy schedule. I have this game according to my power ratings, FAU -4.5 and that is giving Southern Miss 2 points for home field. Take the Owls.
