The NFC East:  How bout dem Caywboyz?  This division plays the NFC West and the AFC North which I would call a Medium.   The Bengals still have a huge uphill climb, the Browns are the Browns and the Steelers have regressed a bit.  The NFC West is obviously hard with their lowest win total at 7.5 for the Cardinals.   This was clearly the worst division in football last year and one must assume that just one team comes out into the playoffs again.  The big question for me is if this is the year that Dak Prescott proves his worth.

1.  Philadelphia Eagles – Vegas win total 9.5 juiced to the over -125

Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Green Bay and New Orleans

Key losses:  G Halapoulivaati Vaitai, FS Malcomb Jenkins, RB Jordan Howard, CB Ronald Darby, WR Nelson Agholor, OLB Kamu Grugier-Hill, QB Josh McCown, LT Jason Peters???

Key additions: DT Javon Hargrave, S Will Parks, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman,

Whom they drafted: WR Jalen Raegar, QB Jalen Hurts, CB K’Von Wallace, OT Jack Driscoll

Summary:  This Eagles team really lost a lot in my opinion and their draft was really a head-scratcher.   After the Cowboys cock-blocked them by drafting Cee Dee Lamb, they went with a guy projected to go late second early third in Jalen Raegar.   The Eagles really needed defense and offensive line depth but instead they went with a QB project in Jalen Hurts for their second round pick.   I do understand the play because of an injury prone Carson Wentz, but it sure didn’t help fill some much needed holes in the secondary and the Offensive line.   Their at large games are obviously tough, but it is worse to me that they play the tougher of those teams in the Saints at home and then have to go to Green Bay.  I usually like it more when the easier team is at home because then you have a shot at winning at least 1 game and may get lucky on the other.  This Eagles team has lost a lot in my opinion and I have them at 7.4 wins for 2020.

Action – Under 9.5 wins – 2 star premium shared

2.  Dallas Cowboys – Vegas win total 9.5 juiced to the over -145 so 9.85 is the real number

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Minnesota and Atlanta

Key losses: Coach Jason Garrett CB Byron Jones, OLB Robert Quinn, DT Maliek Collins, WR Randall Cobb, SS Jeff Heath, TE Jason Witten, WR Tavon Austin

Key additions: Coach Mike McCarthey, DT Gerald McCoy, K Greg Zuerline, FS Haha Clinton Dix, QB Andy Dalton, CB Daryl Worthy, T Cameron Irving,

Whom they drafted: WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Travon Diggs, DL Neville Gallimore, C/G Tyler Biadasz

Summary:  Big D made a ton of moves this year and one of them was their coach.   Jerry Jones used to defend Jason Garrett like he was his only son, but he finally had to move on and hire another coach who will also due his bidding in Michael McCarthy.   I am actually not quite sure if it is much of an upgrade.   Ask any Packer fan and they would say that it sure isn’t.  One thing that this team did is revamp a ton of positions here, but what I am most concerned about is if Dak Prescott can put together a full football game instead of just a great second half.  I am also questioning the fact that they really didn’t address their pass rush after losing Robert Quinn.   Dallas decided to be flashy instead by drafting Ceedee Lamb instead of trading down and taking an Edge and a skill position later.  One big thing that sticks out to me is that Dallas’s Pythagorean wins last year was 10.9 compared to the 8 actual wins that they had.   I think that even though Dallas could have done better in the off-season, I still have them slated to win the division and most likely exceed their win total by achieving at least 10 wins.   Dallas has a great at large set up at Minnesota and home against Atlanta. This is a contract year for Dak and I expect a very good performance on both sides of the ball.

Action: No Play

3. New York Giants – Vegas Win total is 6.5 juiced to the under -130

Schedule – Hard – At large vs Tampa Bay and Chicago

Key losses: WR Cody Lattimer, DT Michael Thomas, LB Alec Ogletree, FS Antoine Bethea

Key additions: CB James Bradbury, ILB Blake Martinez, LB Kyler Fackrel, LB Levine Toilolo, FS Nate Ebner, RB Dion Lewis, DT Austin Johnson and a lot more

Whom they drafted: T Andrew Thomas, S Xavier McKinney,

Summary:  This Giants team is looking to improve on those 4 wins from last year and it looks like a pretty large rebuild.   The Giants had a terrible defense last year and suffered some key injuries to guys like Evan Engram, Golden Tate and Saquon Barkley.  The major moves start right in the defense with a few linebackers picked up from Green Bay and a bunch of other average Joes from other teams.   Nothing too exciting for me and I couldn’t give them a huge bump for free agency.   I do like 2 of their draft picks but if it will be enough to make much of a difference remains to be seen.   Unfortunately, for this Giants team, they get difficult at large opponents hosting Tampa Bay at home and going to Chicago.   This could be another rough year for the G-men!   Their schedule ranks second hardest in football and I think that I am being pretty generous giving them 5.7 wins.

Action – No Play

4.  Washington Redskins – Vegas Win total is 5.5 juiced to the under -130

Schedule – Medium Hard – At large vs Detroit and Carolina

Key losses: G Ereck Flowers, QB Case Keenum, CB Josh Norman

Key additions: CB Kendall Fuller, G Wes Schweitzer, FS Sean Davis, CB Ronald Darby, RB Peyton Barber, ILB Kevin Pierre-Lewis

Whom they drafted: Edge Chase Young, and a bunch of garbage

Summary:   I am very concerned that the past success of Dwayne Haskins is just a product of Ohio State football schemes and playbook rather than any translation to the NFL level.   We have seen the same thing in the past from Ohio State with Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller, and JT Barrett.   The good news is that they may have secured the best player in the draft in Chase Young, but that certainly isn’t enough to turn this team around.   Washington went with a running back with their next pick which was a big head-scratcher to me.   The Redskins didn’t lose much in the off-season but they also didn’t have much to lose anyways.   Their key additions doesn’t exactly light up the board either.   The Redskins had a lower Pythagorean total than even the Bengals and I do not expect much improvement this year.   If there is any good news it is that their at large games look to be pretty easy.  Looking at the additions to this team I can’t see how they get 6 wins this year and my number is 3.9

Action – Under 5.5 wins

NFC South has a medium hard schedule.  This division has had a lot of ups and downs last year and the the 2020 schedule doesn’t look easy.  They have to play the NFC North who is pretty good and they also have to play the AFC West which has an up and coming Raiders and Broncos team.  Don’t forget  the Superbowl Champ Kansas City Chiefs.  The most interesting thing to watch will be how Tom Brady does with the Tampa bay Buccaneers because the hype factor on this team is literally through the roof.   

1. New Orleans Saints – Vegas Win Total 10.5

Schedule:  Medium Hard – at large games vs the 49ers and the Packers

Key Losses:  QB Teddy Bridgewater, SS Vonn Bell, OLB AJ Klein

Key additions: QB Jameis Winston, FS Malcom Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, 

Whom they drafted: C/G Caesar Ruiz, LB Zach Baun

Summary:  Not a lot of draft picks here.   The Saints did retain a lot of talent but I am concerned a little about their secondary getting older and losing Vonn Bell.   That might be the only weakness minus Drew Brees’s age.   I really like the Jameis Winston pickup because if anyone could help pry his head out of his ass, it’s Sean Peyton.  The Saints have always been overachievers until they hit the playoffs.  Their Pythagorean win total was only 10.9 compared to their 13 wins.   They really didn’t do a ton in free agency and I do like Emmanuel Sanders but he is just going to kinda replace Ted Ginn.   I have the Saints at 11.5 wins this year.

Action:  lean over  

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Win total at 9.5 juiced to the over (-140) so actually 9.8

Schedule: – Medium – At large games vs the Bears and the Rams

Key losses: DE Carl Nassib, DT Beau Allen, QB Jameis Winston, RB Peyton Barber

Key additions: QB Tom Brady, T Joe Haeg, 

Whom they drafted: T Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield, WR Tyler Johnson, DL Khalil Davis

Summary:  Obviously landing Tom Brady is the biggest thing that Tampa has ever done in free agency, but at the same time, Jameis Winston wasn’t all that bad.   He threw for over 5100 yards last year and part of the reason that he had 30 interceptions was due to the fact that their secondary was so bad last year and the Bucs had to play catch-up.   My biggest worry here is that they really didn’t try to fix their secondary in free agency or the draft so I have to wonder if Tom Brady is going to be throwing the ball 40-50 times per game.   Being that this team gained Brady, I have to award them 2 more wins over Winston in this medium schedule.   The rest of the gains and losses are really a wash in my opinion but this only brings this team to 9.6 wins which is close to their win total.   

Action:  Lean under  

3.  Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the over (-130)

Schedule:  Hard – Atlanta plays the Seahawks and the Cowboys for at large.  Not really easy.  

Key losses: TE Austin Hooper, Edge Vic Beasley, G Wes Schweitzer, CB Desmond Trufant, OLB Devondre Campbell, RB Devonte Freeman

Key additions: RB Todd Gurley, DE Dante Fowler, G Justin McCray, TE Hayden Hurst

Whom they drafted: CB AJ Terrell, DL Marlon Davidson, LB MyCal Walker

Summary:    This team somehow eked out 7 wins last year while having a tough schedule.   They started out 1-7 and somehow won their last 4 games in a row including at San Francisco.   Well this year the schedule is even worse ranking the hardest in the league and they strangely start out the season with both of their at large games vs Seattle and week 2 at Dallas.   The Seahawks were actually pretty healthy most of the year but they lost a ton of their talent.   They replaced TE Austin Hooper with Hayden Hurst who hasn’t proved anything yet in the league.  Theyalso  didn’t resign Devonte Freeman and replaced him with an ailing Todd Gurley who has been very mysterious.   The F alcons lost some top 5 guys on their team defense in Devondre Campbell, Desmond Trufant and Vic Beasley.   I had to punish this team 2 full games with what they lost and I only gave them back .5 for free agency and draft.   I am liking the under 7.5 for plus money

Action:  Under 7.5 +110

4.  Carolina Panthers – Win total is 5.5

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Cardinals and the Redskins.

Key losses: Coach Riverboat Ron Rivera, CB James Bradberry, DE Mario Addison, DT Gerald McCoy, DT Vernon Butler, TE Greg Olsen, DE Bruce Irvin, G Tre Turner, QB Cam Newton isn’t a key loss to the numbers being that he didn’t play much.

Key additions: Coach Matt Rhule and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Robby Anderson, WR Stephon Weatherly, T Russell Okung

Whom they drafted: DL Derrick Brown, Edge Yatur Gross-Matos, S Jeremy Chinn, CB Troy Pride 

Summary: Carolina was very injured last year and it all started with Cam Newton and his issues with his Foot this year and it seems he regressed anyway due to his ankles, shoulder and back.  I can’t give back for that injury as he won’t be the starting QB this year for the Panthers.   From what it looks like, the Panthers started their rebuild by drafting a ton of defense and shedding some big contracts.   The thing that I love for the future of this team is obviously the hire of Coach Matt Rhule from Baylor and OC Joe Brady from LSU.   WOW.  If you are a Panther fan you have to be excited for the future with these two guys.  Carolina had the second hardest schedule last year and they have a medium hard one this year.   In saying that, I think that it is actually possible to win some games if Teddy Bridgewater plays well.   We actually saw some great games from this team last year until they got extremely injured in the middle of the season.   We also have to remember that they still have Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore as weapons.   This team could surprise some people and I am leaning over and would take it if it wasn’t for such a hard schedule. 

Action:  Lean over

NFC NORTH: This conference has to play the NFC South and the AFC South.   This won’t be easy when looking at the teams in the NFC South and at the fact that New Orleans is a force and Tampa Bay has really improved now with Brady.   The AFC South had 2 playoff teams last year and the Colts are looking to get back to what they were 2 years ago.  

1. Green Bay Packers Win Total 9

Schedule: Medium – At large games vs the Eagles and 49ers

Key Losses:  OT Bryan Bulaga, ILB Blake Martinez, OLB Kyler Fackrell, TE Jimmy Graham

Key additions: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner, WR Devin Funchess

Whom they drafted: QB Jordan Love, RB AJ Dillon, IOL Jake Hansen, OT Jon Runyan

Summary:   This team has a 3 game difference in their Pythagorean win total from last year and that really worries me.   The good news is that they didn’t lose too much production from last year.   The Packers once again whiffed on this draft by not getting Rodgers more wide receiver weapons and also ignored their D-Line issues after San Francisco exposed them.   It is quite obvious to me that Matt Lefleur is trying to emulate the Ravens power offense by getting another running back and a running quarterback in the draft.   Aaron Rodger’s may not be happy this year and I don’t know what to expect out of him.   I have their wins at 9.9 so it looks close to a play but I just can’t do it under these circumstances. 

Action: No Play

2. Minnesota Vikings – Win Total 9

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Cowboys and Seahawks

Key Losses: DT Linvil Joseph, CB Tre Wayans,  DE Stephan Weatherly, DE Everson Griffen S Andrew Sendejo, CB Xavier Rhodes,  WR Stefon Diggs.  

Key Additions: DT Michael Pierce, G Josh Kline, DT Shamar Stephen

Whom they drafted: WR Justin Jefferson, CB Jeff Gladney, T Ezra Cleveland, CB Cameron Dantzler and a ton of other dudes

The Vikings have gotten a lot younger this year.  They shed a ton of players but these players were also very good and I am not sure that having 15 picks can make up for them all.   Stefon Diggs was a very big threat all defenses and Justin Jefferson will have to learn the position quickly.  The Vikings were pretty healthy in general last year.  My biggest worry is Kurt Cousins with the fact is that he could never play well out of his 1pm Eastern time slots.   The Vikings should get their share of prime-time games this year.   Minnesota will have a pretty hard schedule this year getting the Cowboys at home and having to travel to Seattle.   They did over-achieve a bit last year but I certainly cannot bet the over and lean under the 9.   My total is 8.7

Action – Lean under

3. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 8

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the the Rams and the Giants

Key Losses:  QB Chase Daniel, ILB Nick Kwiatkowski, OLB Leonard Floyd, NT Nick Williams, FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix

Key Additions:   QB Nick Foles, OLB Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, S Deon Bush, LB Martavious Mingo, WR Ted Ginn Jr

Whom they drafted: TE Cole Kmet, CB Jalen Johnson, WR Darnell Mooney

Summary: This Bears team really underachieved last year and it all started with their first game of the season home loss vs the Packers.   They eventually rebounded back to .500 and could have been fine during the regular season had they not had the awful losses vs the Raiders and Chargers.  I had to punish them a half game for barely beating the Vikings second string the last game of the season last year to get to 8 wins.  The Bears had some  bad injuries last year which helped contribute to their downfall with Hicks, Trubisky and Mack all missing some time, but they had decent backup options that filled in just fine.  The obvious reason for the Bears demise was poor quarterback and offensive line play.  Chicago could not establish a run to open up the pass.  Their schedule last year was pretty hard ranking 7th last year against team efficiency and this year it looks medium easy only ranking 6th hardest in the league.  You have to think that at least this year, the presence of Nick Foles will improve the QB position whether he starts or makes Mitch a better player.  Khalil Mack is due for a big year after a disappointing 2019 

Action – Lean over – I have the Bears wins at 9.5 if QB play improves

4. Detroit Lions – Win Total – 6.5

Schedule: – Medium Easy – At large games vs the Cardinals and the Redskins

Key losses: G Graham Glasgow, OLB Devin Kennard, DT Ashawn Robinson

Key additions:  G Halapaulivaati Vaitai, LB Jaime Collins, CB Desmond Trufant, DT Nick Williams

Whom they drafted: CB Jeffrey Okudah, RB DeAndre Swift, Edge Julian Okwara, WR Quintez Cephus

Summary:  The Lions did a lot of robbing Peter to pay Paul in the off-season but I do like their draft a lot.   there was a huge Pythagorean discrepancy with them showing that they should have won 6 games instead of 3.   Matt Stafford only played half of the season so I had to make a big injury accommodation to my win total numbers.  Let’s look at the adjustments made in the off-season.  This Lions team was flat out worst at opponent passing yards per game and they went and paid for Desmond Trufant and then drafted Jeffrey Okudah.   Adding Jaimie Collins from NE and drafting Julian Okwara should help them get a few sacks.   Is this finally the year that Matt Stafford puts it all together?  I have their wins at 7.75 so this looks like a small play.

Action: Over 6.5 wins