Well yesterday kinda sucked– I went 0-3 in my picks, that’s quite rare for me this season, but managed to land 2 live bets for those who follow me on Twitter. That was a nice way to get redemption but I expect better overall results tonight. The Hornets and Wizards really shit the bed Tuesday; hopefully these teams show a little more gusto. 

Spurs/Grizzlies over 222.5 (-110), 2 units and Spurs +4 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. Things slow down in the playoffs usually, that’s true. Nerves and big moments fluster even the best teams and sometimes the best players, but I don’t think that’ll matter in this contest. The Spurs are a good defensive team, not a great one. The same can be said for the Grizzlies. As the season trudged on, both of these units saw considerable regression in their ability to prevent other teams from scoring. Memphis is 16th and San Antonio is 19th in points allowed for that reason. While Memphis is 6th in defensive efficiency, a damn good mark, that stat is often skewed by how many points they tend to score (they average 113.3 ppg and habitually eclipsed that total in the second half of the season). If there’s one area that Memphis really struggles, it’s in closing out games. They’re 21-17 ATS as a favorite but that’s also a skewed stat– the books never really gave the Grizzlies too much credit so covering their lines as a favorite wasn’t terribly difficult. If they were lined like the Suns or Nuggets or other elite teams in the Western Conference, it’d be a different story. Look at the Grizzlies schedule and you’ll see that blowouts are very rare. When they win it’s by 3 points or 5 points or 4 points etc. That’s probably why their point differential sits at +1, right smack-dab middle of the NBA pack. I think 4 points is too many for this team to cover.

The Spurs are the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 65.7% (23-12-1). That’s one reason why I like them tonight but it’s not the only reason. There’s a significant coaching advantage here: the Spurs’ Gregg Popovich vs. the Grizzlies’ Taylor Jenkins, and a big-time experience difference too. The Spurs are young overall but they have players that have competed in big games before: DeRozan, Mills, Gay. The Grizzlies are fresh-faced and eager and in my opinion one of the deeper rosters in the NBA. Ja Morant may be the best player on the floor, too. Still, the veteran leadership and coaching experience for San Antonio is a big mismatch.

It’s scary to bet on an underdog after last night’s games but I’m pulling the trigger. In what should be a high-scoring and competitive affair, give me the Spurs +4 and the over.

Lakers -5 (-115), 2 units: I know how many of you love to hate on King James, but the 10-time NBA Finals contender and face of the NBA appears to have out-smarted us all once again. There may not be a savvier player in the history of the game. After lamenting over the brief pause between NBA seasons due to the COVID year, it was obvious that the game was finally taking a toll on the 18 year pro, so Lebron chose to rest and treat his ailments through the final 2 months of the season. Flash forward to mid-May and now we see a refreshed and rejuvenated Lebron and wouldn’t you know it– team LAL is heading into the playoffs on a red-hot 5 game winning streak. Anthony Davis is finding his groove, Dennis Schroder is back and healthy, and Drummond, Kuzma, Caruso, Harrell, Gasol and all the Lakers skill-players are ready to roll. Look at LAL’s depth chart and you won’t see a single injury designation. In the words of good ol’ JR– “By gawd almighty, he’s done it again!” The Lakers just seem to find a way and in my opinion, all Western Conference teams should be afraid; very afraid.

But since they only managed to sneak into the 7th seed, that means they have to face the 8th seeded Warriors in the first play-in game. As hot as the Lakers are right now, the Warriors may be hotter. Golden State is riding a 6-game winning streak into tonight and the true MVP, Steph Curry, has never looked more confident. Golden State thrives on movement without the ball, most of which centers around Curry, and finding obstruction-free opportunities to get off shots without contest. The question is– can Steph and his supporting cast get open enough against the NBA’s #1 defense?

One thing that’s underrated about Lebron (I could say a ton here) is how adept he is on defense. The big man can literally cover anyone. We’ve seen him shut down players half his size like Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving (and Steph Curry, famously), and we’ve seen him take on and stuff big men, too. The Lakers are most dangerous in this game because of how they can confuse and overwhelm the Warriors on defense. While I think Curry won’t be completely stifled tonight, I actually still like his over points prop, the Lakers can and will limit him. That will put big responsibility on the shoulders of players like Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. Golden State will miss Kelly Oubre Jr.’s presence tonight, which I think is more significant than most people realize.

The Lakers don’t have that issue. No one in the NBA is more relaxed and poised than Lebron in big-game situations. That means that young, key contributors like Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder can play without the same pressure on their back. In their collective mind– “Lebron will lead us if we mess up.” There’s no greater gift for a basketball player to have than calm and confidence entering a big game like this.

ATS records won’t help you tonight– the Lakers are 14-22 at home (38.9%) while the Warriors are 14-22 on the road. This game is about pride, momentum, and a team built to win championships. Golden State is small, quick, and proficient in perimeter shooting. The Lakers are big, methodical, exceptional on defense, stacked with great scorers, and they have the best leader on the court. At home, the Lakers poise and experience will be too much for the underdog Warriors. Bet on the Lakers and bet them without refrain.

It’s day 1 of the NBA Play-In Tournament games and even though I don’t love the concept, it gives us more excitement, more to watch, and best of all more ways to win money! Look for my NBA Playoff Preview podcast coming out later today, where I’ll breakdown every team in the postseason and their chances of making the NBA Finals. Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s action:

Hornets +3 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hornets are not a great team but they do a lot of things well. They’re mid-tier in most categories but I think they’re plenty productive enough to keep this game close. If there’s one area where the Hornets really thrive, it’s in assists. They’re 8th overall in assist ratio, which measures how many possessions/scores end in an assist, which is a good indicator of how great they are at executing team basketball. Since no one player is electric enough to hold up their roster (Rozier has been great in moments), they rely on a slow-paced, methodical passing attack to break down their opponent’s defense. Lately the Pacers’ defense has been anything but stifling so I don’t see Charlotte having any issues getting points tonight. This is a big spot for LaMelo Ball in his first playoff game and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles himself. He’s certainly been a nice sparkplug for his team since he’s returned.

In most ways, the Pacers are clearly the better team in this contest. They’re one of the quickest teams in the NBA at 5th in pace, they’re 14th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. That last stat may be a bit skewed, however. While they are 6th in points per game, they’re 25th in points allowed. That figure has only inflated towards the end of the season and their defense could be a significant problem tonight. They’ve also been plagued by a litany of injuries. Myles Turner and TJ Warren are out, Lamb could be out again tonight, and Sabonis and Brogdon are still banged up.

The Hornets aren’t a deep roster but they’re plenty healthier than Indiana. Their showing on Sunday was a disappointment overall but they found a way to limit the Wizards’ output for most of that matchup. If they can limit Indiana at all, and I think they can, I don’t think the Pacers can or will overrun the visiting Hornets. This should be a hard-fought, close game between two similarly built teams and I’ll gladly take the dog when that’s the case.

Wizards win (+115), 1.5 units and Wizards/Celtics over 232.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets, although it could make a fine parlay too. This is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions and I think both of those tidal waves keep growing tonight. Although few “experts” are giving the Wizards a chance to do anything in the postseason, the fact is they were one of the best teams in the association to end the season. According to SB Nation, “over the past 24 games, the Wizards have a net offensive rating minus defensive rating of +5.3 points per 100 possessions.” That’s a better rating than 24 NBA teams. Only the Jazz, Clippers, Suns, Bucks, and 76ers were better. The Nuggets, for example, fell below the Wizards’ rating at +5.0 points per 100 possessions. The Wizards also finished the season 17-7 in those last 24 games. Mostly led by Russel Westbrook willing his team to wins through triple-double after triple double, the Wizards are really hard to contain when they’re in a flow-state (and Russ is a savant at getting them there). It was clear Bradley Beal wasn’t 100% in their last game against the Hornets, but it may take an act of God to keep him out today. Can the Celtics stop the electric and hyper-paced offense of Washington tonight? We think not.

It’s not all bad news out of Boston. The Celtics steadily improved on defense down the stretch. Throughout the year they were rated as one of the worst defenses in the association, but they finished 15th in defensive efficiency and 11th in points allowed. Their offense and skill-players have been inconsistent, but they’ve done enough to push their team to earn the 7th seed in the East. Considering how volatile their season has been, that’s not a bad result. Still, the Celtics were reeling in May. Losers of 5 of their last 6 games to teams like the Heat (twice), the Knicks, Bulls, and Cavs, Tatum and company couldn’t find their mojo without Jaylen Brown in the lineup. Brown had arguably his best year yet as a Celtic, averaging 24.7 ppg and 6 rebounds per game. The loss of Brown means more pressure on Tatum and his supporting cast. Kemba Walker has had nice moments this year but he’s dealt with injuries on and off and he’s been too inconsistent. Marcus Smart is a veteran and as tough as it gets, but he’s not an accountable every-possession shooter like Brown or Tatum.

The Celtics have playoff experience, a good coach and plenty of playmakers to win this game; I just don’t think they will. The pace and output of Washington’s offense over the last month has been astounding. After nearly blowing their last game against the Hornets for the 8th seed, the Wizards were able to come back from a double-digit-deficit and win by two possessions, nearly covering their line (-6). Great teams are able to turn on the jets when needed and that’s exactly what the Wizards did 2 days ago. Are the Wizards a great team? That might be going too far, but they have significantly more momentum than the Celtics and I don’t think Boston will be able to keep up with them. Since I think Washington will command the pace of the game I also like the over, though I’ll only put one unit on it since this is a playoff-entry game and nerves are high, which usually favors defense.

After a day off due to some family activities at the Farley household, we’re back and we have a full 15 games of NBA action to end the season. Can’t say I’ll have a play on all those games but I do have quite a few. We’re 15-9 this week overall– Onto my picks!

Knicks -12 (-110), 2.5 units: The Knicks will clinch the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs if they win today and Boston is literally sitting out all their stars– Tatum, Kemba, Thompson, Williams. I see no reason not to hammer this line. With the way Boston often competes, or lack thereof, New York could beat a healthy Celtics team by 12+ on a regular day. I’m betting the Knicks’ side and I’m betting a rare 2.5 units on it.

Wizards -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hornets might play over their heads a little in this one but I don’t think it’ll matter. There’s a huge margin between the best player in this game, Russel Westbrook, and everyone else. Russ will turn up the volume even more than  usual and ensure the Wizards stay ahead. Charlotte, on the other hand, has been struggling lately. This should be their 5th straight loss and unfortunately, I foresee them limping into the playoffs as the 9th or 10th play-in seed.

Rockets +7.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Rockets win (+265), 1 unit: The Hawks know that the Knicks are going to win and secure the 4th seed so they really don’t have much to play for. I can see Atlanta resting their stars, at least for a part of this game, while Houston’s skill players are playing for their future and want to end their season on a high note. Sprinkle some money-line action on this if you really want a nice payday– I think the risk is considerably lower than the line tells us.

Nets -13 (-110), 2 units: Same story, different game. Brooklyn wants to ensure they clinch the #2 seed and they’re at home, while the Cavaliers won’t be able to keep up with the Nets’ stars. Harden looks as sharp as ever and Brooklyn will love any momentum they can gain before the postseason. The New York teams should both win big today.

Blazers -9 and Lakers -9.5 (each -115), 2 units each: Two separate bets although this is probably a very solid parlay. I don’t love that these games are going on at the same time because, in theory, one of these teams could turn it off and decide not to play as hard towards the end. That being said, the Nuggets might sit Jokic and Porter Jr. because, even if they did move up to the 3rd seed, that would mean they could potentially face the Lakers. Now that Lebron’s back the Lakers are starting to show their championship form again so why on earth would Denver want to do that? I think they allow the Blazers to win and sit their stars. The Pelicans are injured and no match for a amped up, healthy LAL squad led by Lebron. This line should be higher. I’m on both favorites.