It’s an exciting day to bet the association with a ton of games to choose from. We have a few marquee matchups and teams who are starting to feel the pressure of the impending playoff race. The good Lord (or mother earth or Zeus or whatever you believe in) gave me a nice sweet dose of humble pie yesterday, sending my picks to 0-3 overall. I have a good feeling about today’s comeback. Onto the picks!

Lean, Nets +8 (-110): Oh look, Durant won’t play tonight. Eye rollllllll. If you listened to my podcast, you know how I feel about shit like this. I won’t rant here, but the signals NBA players and coaches send to fans in decisions like this are glaring. They don’t care. Good, because we think you’re idiots and you’re losing our respect. Aldridge and Griffin are sitting out of this game, too. Regardless, the Nets still have more than enough firepower to keep this game close. Brooklyn beat Philadelphia with their b-team before; I don’t think that happens tonight, but the Kyrie Irving led Nets could certainly be feisty and competitive. Neither team really needs this game, so it’s reasonable to imagine the Sixers resting or sitting players more often than usual. There won’t be the playoff feel we all wanted to see, unfortunately. I think Nets side has more value but, it’s just a lean.

Spurs -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Most books have this line around 5 or 5.5 now, which is a bet I still like. This is a play on a much more consistent team who should be plenty motivated as they fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Since the All-Star break, Toronto is a sad 4-15. Losers of 4 of their last 5 games and with Freddie VanFleet likely to remain out, arguably their most dependable scorer, the Raptors have to be struggling to find anything to get excited or motivated for. Away from home in the perpetually distracting land of Florida, I wouldn’t blame Lowry and company if they were more interested in beers on the beach than any chance at resurrecting this season. It’s not going to happen, especially not with well-balanced teams like the Pacers and Knicks guarding their playoff spots. San Antonio is healthy and ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan loves playing against his former team, averaging 22 points and over 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 5 reunion games against the Raptors. Toronto is also terrible at securing defensive rebounds, ranking near the very bottom of the league in DRR (defensive rebound rate). That’s an issue for a disciplined Spurs team that sticks to their assignments and knows how to capitalize on another team’s mistakes. It’s not surprising that Popovich’s team is ranked #1 in the NBA in turnover ratio. Bet the Spurs.

Knicks win (+120), 1.5 units: This is the fourth game in 5 days for the Knicks, who have now won 3 games in a row, and they hope to keep their playoff aspirations alive tonight against the surging Pelicans. Also winners of 3 straight, the Pelicans recently had an impressive win over Philly before taking care of bottom-feeders in the Cavs and Kings. The Knicks 3-game win streak is a little more impressive. A tough fought OT-forced victory over Memphis and then an overwhelming defensive flex against LAL has New York gaining more confidence again after a slump in early April.

New York will be able to control this game. One thing that the Knicks do really well, and it confuses and throws off good offenses, is play at a horrifically slow pace. Horrific for the opponent, that is. No one in the NBA allows less points than New York, they’re top 3 in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics, and they play at the slowest tempo (30th) in the association. I’ve said it all year and I’ll say it again– the Pelicans thrive when and only when they can assert themselves down the court. Throughout the season, their tempo has increased. In the winter they were sitting in the deep 20s in pace; now they sit at 14th overall. And as most of us know, they really struggle on defense. Despite Zion and Adams’ ability to snag rebounds, and they’re damn good at it, something gets lost on the defensive end. Gaping holes and disjointed schemes has New Orleans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed per game. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and are becoming a dynamic scoring duo. The Knicks are averaging 115 ppg during their win-streak and that was against top 10 defenses in Memphis, Toronto and LAL. What will they do to New Orleans? This is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, even for the burgeoning superstar in Zion Williamson. Julius Randle is not intimidated or afraid of Zion’s abilities and he’ll test the youngster tonight. Knicks win.

Heat +6 (-110), 2 units: I called this out on my podcast and I’m sticking to it. I know the Heat are on a really tough road stretch right now. They’re facing two of the Western Conference titans in back-to-back nights in Phoenix and now Denver; quite a tall task. But I love the Miami side tonight and this line is telling us the books respect Miami, too. Jamal Murray’s injury, although I don’t think it spells death and destruction for Denver’s potential, is not a small loss. The 24 year old was averaging a solid 21.2 ppg for his team and despite playing through injuries all year, has a knack for making clutch shots and getting to the foul line when it matters most. Who’s going to make up for those 21 points? Certainly Jokic can contibute even more, but Aaron Gordon is not a natural scorer. He’s a great role-player, but not a offensive-magnate by any means. Dozier and Barton? Meh. Look, the Nuggets are still a really good team, but I love how resilient and tough Miami is. Do you think there was any chance, ANY chance, that Miami’s starters would be sitting tonight for “rest.” Hell no. Jimmy Butler leads Miami with an attitude and grit that’s hard to measure and they’ll bring it tonight. As tough as this road stretch for Miami is, their next game is in 2 days against Minnesota. That’s nothing exhausting to think about. I also love that Tyler Herro is playing more minutes and starting to gain some steam. According to SportsKeeda, Herro has scored 18 ppg and shot 49% from the field, including 41% from beyond the arc, in his last 7 games. The young man may be rounding into playoff form and that’ll be needed for a Heat lineup that, at times, struggles to keep up with good offensive teams like the Nuggets. This game should be testy and lower scoring (total is set at 209 and it’s right)– that makes me favor the dog, especially a dog that knows how to play defense.

Live bet the Wizards/Kings game: Like I mentioned in my podcast that posted today, this is a wait and see type of game. The total is appropriately huge at 242 but it will instantly fluctuate once this game starts. If these teams get off to insane offensive beginnings and end up scoring 65-70+ in the first two quarters, look to play a live under. The total should move close to or into the 250s. If these two squads act like they suddenly understand how to play defense and/or the scoring starts off slow, bet the over on a deflated number. I would also bet contrarian in the third quarter. In other words, if the points are piling up in the first half, bet the third quarter under as long as it’s reasonable (58.5, 59.5, etc.). If they start sluggish and if there’s below-average scoring in the first half, bet that third quarter to fly over. Check me out on Twitter during this game– I’ll try my best to immediately jump on and share the side I’m on.

A 3-0 start to the week– can’t hate that! Unfortunately I don’t like many of today’s games, but here’s my attempt to find some value and something for YOU to bet on!

Timberwolves first half +4 (-115), 1.5 units: After what happened in Minneapolis, I think it’s fair to say that the fans and team that represent the Twin City will be pretty amped up for this contest. Durant will do his thing but he’ll have restricted minutes, while Kyrie is sitting out (shocker), and Harden is still injured. Aldridge was also announced as out for this matchup. At least in the first half, Minnesota is a very live dog in a good spot, at home, to either be ahead or keep this competitive.

Pacers win (+135), 1 unit: This is a nice little sandwich spot for Indiana. The Pacers have now won 3 in a row and they’re feelin’ themselves after a big road victory over Memphis, a team that was primed in a revenge spot and couldn’t get it done. Kawhi Leonard is out tonight for LAC and although Paul George and company are more than enough to overwhelm most teams, this game means considerably more to Indiana. Jockeying for the playoffs and below .500 on the year, every game counts right now for the Pacers and that’s an angle we like to play on. Meanwhile, Tyronn Lue and the Clippers don’t care enough about this game to start their star (Ibaka is out and Beverly may be, too) so why should I assume this road game is circled on their calendar? It’s not. LAC faces Detroit on the road tomorrow night, another let-down spot, before a prime showdown against Philly on Friday. I’ll take a shot on Indiana to take full advantage.

Blazers -1 (-110), 2 units: This is an interesting game. Two star-dependent and shot-dependent teams face off Tuesday night, and both squads are dying to earn a little more respect. Boston has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5 heading into tonight, although their last victory was anything but deserving. Mike Malone, as I’m sure you know, pulled out Jokic and other Nuggets starters late in the 3rd quarter of their game against the Celtics Sunday and Boston completely blew them out from that point on. I mean they got out-scored 31-8 in the fourth quarter. Pathetic. I hope that gave the mean-green a feeling of inflated jubilation, ‘cuz get ready for that to be DEflated tonight. The Blazers just got punked by a motivated Heat team 2 nights ago, at home, and me thinks that doesn’t sit well with Portland. Damian Lillard and the Blazers already know they have issues on defense but to not muster or scheme a way to overcome Miami’s defense isn’t a good sign for a team that has high aspirations in May and June. That’s playoff defense and it’s something Portland will need to figure out before it gets too late. Thanks to some inferior opponents, Boston has played better on defense lately, but I don’t think Portland is too worried about it. The Celtics travel to LA to face the Lakers Thursday, while the Blazers will get 3 days rest after tonight. Although they have plenty of flaws, Portland plays with more chemistry and they’re in a better spot Tuesday. I like Damian to go off, too– he loves to show off when up against other All-Stars. Bet Portland.

In case you didn’t see my mini rant on Twitter, let me just restate that what the Nuggets did last night, pulling Jokic late in the 3rd and allowing the Celtics to completely flip the script, was criminal. Fans and bettors across America (wake up, league heads) are invested every single day into these games. The Nuggets were the right side. They dominated Boston with their starters in the lineup. The fact that Denver not only didn’t cover but lost and couldn’t hold up as a parlay leg was insanity. And it’s why football will always be king. The NBA has too many games, too little commitment from its diva players, and it leads to frustrating endings like Sunday. I’ll try to be as mindful as possible but these events are tough to predict. Anyway, even bad beats and bad coaching couldn’t keep us from a decent day– the Sunday post went 2-2 and resulted in positive units. Onto Monday. 

Knicks -2 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a much better spot for the Knicks and let’s face it, they need it more. New York has now had two impressive wins in a row, willing themselves in the latter parts of the Memphis and Toronto games to ensure a victory. A big part of that is because of their starters. RJ Barrett has been playing some truly elite basketball. Showing his growth and maturation, the 2nd year Knicks guard doesn’t force shots, is very efficient from the field, and serves as a patient facilitator and leader on the hardwood. Court general Julius Randle and Barrett make a great 1-2 punch in the game’s most high-pressure moments. Heading into Friday’s Memphis game, the Knicks had lost 5 of their last 6 games. They can’t afford to go on another streak like that. The Lakers had an incredible game 2 nights ago at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, which yours truly and hopefully my readers made some good coin off of. When the Lakers are big underdogs like that, with or without their stars in the game, it’s a good bet to make. They still have coach Lebron on the sideline and more importantly, because of King James, there’s an “old-school just-bring-it” attitude in every contest. As much as I love their gumption, they’re on a really tough road stretch now. I think this game flies under, but I like the Knicks side more. They’re healthy, at home, and won’t underestimate LAL like the Nets did.

Grizzlies -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bulls will get exposed tonight. For all the trials Memphis has had, and those last two games were true heart-breakers, this is the break they need. Check out my article from yesterday on their game against the Pacers, which I feel they should have won; the Grizzlies should take the same fire and motivation into tonight. It started to show up in the 2nd half but it was too late against Indiana. The Grizzlies are an incredibly balanced team that play very effective defense and have more than enough firepower on offense to keep up with teams that can score a ton of points like Chicago. But I don’t think the Bulls will thrive tonight. Chicago has really struggled since they added Vucevic to their roster, a move that looked great on paper, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 11 games. This is also their fifth road game in a row. Few teams cover like the Grizzlies (they’re 59.3% ATS at home and 60.8% overall, which is 3rd best in the NBA), and they’ll do it again tonight.

Lean, 76ers -3: Just a lean because Dallas is thirsty for a win too, but Luka Doncic was held to only 19 points and 4 assists, one of his most unproductive games of the year, the last time he faced Philadelphia. He also turned the ball over 5 times. That’s called the Ben Simmons effect, which often gets underrated. Philly is absolutely the all-around better team, but Dallas can pull out some unexpected wins, as we’ve learned.

Pelicans win (-130), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line with the Pelicans listed as only 3 point favorites, and we all know they have their challenges covering ATS (45.3% on the year), but the Kings have been getting SMOKED lately. They’ve now lost 6 in a row by an average of 12.3 point margins. One glaring difference between Sacramento and New Orleans is the way they rebound. The Pelicans have the #1 offensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate in the NBA. Sacramento is dead last in defensive rebounding. That will mean a ton of second-change opportunities and probably a huge game from Zion. I expect the Pelicans to at least win. Don’t blow it, New Orleans!

These totals are really kicking my ass– more to say on the Blazers’ output later in this article– but a lovely 3-1 Saturday in the association is nothing to bat an eye to. Let’s end this week strong with some more wins, shall we?

Nuggets -7 (-110), 1.5 units: We barely covered taking the Celtics side 2 nights ago in an OT game against Minnesota– that’s so like Boston to eke out that win– and as promised, I’m fading them here in this spot. Like I’ve said so many times in these posts, the Celtics have proved that they can’t contend with the elite this year. They love accruing wins against low and mid-tier teams: the Hornets, Pacers, Rockets, Raptors, etc., but the Nuggets are far from low or mid-tier and I expect it to show here today. Denver is the hottest team in the NBA right now. Since the acquisition of Aaron Gordon, who fits perfectly into their lineup as the role-player he was born to be, Denver has been on absolute fire. Winners of now 8 in a row, at times it seems the Nuggets don’t have to play all that hard to smash other teams. They just have too much talent. Improving nearly every day in their offensive ratings, Hollinger metrics now rates Denver as the 4th most efficient offense in the association. With so few egos and so many talented passers and shooters and rebounders, it’s no mystery why Denver can overwhelm their foes with ease. Jamal Murray is questionable, don’t love that, but so are Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. I also don’t love that the Nuggets have to turn around and travel to Golden State tomorrow, but I don’t think it matters. Off two days rest and at home, the Nuggets should flex here and show why the Celtics are no longer in this class of NBA teams. I’m on Denver to cover.

Heat win (-105), 2 units: The Blazers are kind of like the UCLA of professional basketball. Patient, lots of talent, consistent, but far too dependent on great shooting. Their game against the Pistons last night, for example– they played “well” but nothing really stood out about their performance. I guess we can give Portland a nod for playing slightly better defensive basketball as of late, but Lord knows they’ve never been consistent on that end of the floor either. Another solid performance by Damian Lillard and with a lot of success rebounding, the Blazers got past a team they should in Detroit. Slow clap, I guess? The Heat are a different animal. No strangers to adversity, the Heat travel to Portland Sunday and start a grueling road stretch. After tonight’s game they’ll travel to Phoenix on Tuesday and then a back-to-back Wednesday at Denver. Ouch. That doesn’t deter me Sunday though. Miami has steadily improved all year on defense. As of today, the Heat are 5th overall in Hollinger’s team defense ratings and they allow the 3rd least points per game. Like the Blazers, they’re patient. But unlike the Blazers and more like a Baylor or Gonzaga, Miami knows how to spread around the ball. The Heat are 3rd overall in assist ratio– guess who’s in last place? The Blazers. True to form, Portland relies way too much on their sharp-shooters to lift them out of bad spots. It’s not easy getting off good shots against Miami and nothing will come easy tonight. Jimmy Butler is also starting to play like he did in last year’s playoffs, too. Off 3 days rest, I love the Heat to win.

Grizzlies -3 (-115), 2 units: This is a sweet revenge spot for the Grizzlies. Two evenly matched teams face-off Sunday in what should be a good battle. Unfortunately for Memphis, the last time these squads battled the Pacers embarrassed the Grizzlies in Indianapolis back in early February. As usual, the Pacers are sputtering around right now, beating bad teams and falling victim to inconsistent performances. The Grizzlies just lost to a New York Knicks team that was all but ready to die to win that game (what an OT thriller at MSG), so that’s not a bad loss. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA before Friday, winning 5 of their last 6, and I love them on their home court in this one. Give me a healthy Grizzlies team to cover and get a little redemption.

Knicks win (-140), 2 units: The Raptors are one of the most unpredictable and volatile teams in the NBA. I usually try to avoid betting their games for that reason, but this one is too juicy to pass up. The Knicks, for all their woes, are at least one of the more consistent teams in the association. You know what you’ll get from New York: conservative coaching, stingy defense, and volatile offense capable of great output mostly thanks to RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. I hate that recipe for Toronto today. The Raptors tend to get a little fat and sassy (and over-celebrate) after a big win. I love what I saw from Gary Trent Jr., he seems happy and that speaks to Portland’s shaky offensive schemes, but we can expect some extreme regression tonight against a healthy and poised Knicks unit. The Knicks have struggled but they’re not the Cavs, and Toronto is way too dependent on random big games from one of their talented shooters. New York’s win against Memphis 2 nights ago could be a season-altering victory. They refused to lose, forced OT and never gave up the lead once they had it. It was a full team-effort. I love the Knicks to carry that momentum into tonight and stump the perpetually confused Raptors. The opposite narrative would make little sense.

Parlay opportunity: Consider a 3 team parlay on Denver, Dallas, and Miami (+254 odds). I think it has a great chance to hit.