The NBA Playoffs are finally here! Here are my best bets and predictions for the first slate of the 2020-2021 postseason:

Heat/Bucks under 227 (-110), 1.5 units (and lean Heat +5): Jimmy Butler was recently quoted saying, “I’m stupidly locked in,” and you know what? I believe him. For 2 years running Jimmy has brought a moxie and toughness to Miami and it’s become emblematic of what they represent to the league. Scrappy and hustling defense. Efficient and in-your-face offense. Resiliency. The Heat waltz into the playoffs with a notch under their belt that a lot of other Eastern Conference teams can’t claim: they have NBA Finals experience. So when Jimmy exudes and expresses confidence about his team heading into this weekend, I’m inclined to take him seriously. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, on the other hand, aren’t in their usual top 2 spot heading into the postseason. The Greek Freak has struggled through some injuries and his team has struggled to play consistent basketball, particularly on defense. The Bucks are fast-paced and hyper-reliant on Giannis for success. While I think that may ultimately derail them from ever winning a championship, the Heat that could derail their immediate chances if they’re not careful. Whatever team controls the game controls the pace and usually has more affect on the total. I’m betting on Miami’s ability to affect this game enough that we see an under. The Heat play at an extremely slow tempo (29th, second slowest only to the Knicks), are top 5 in points allowed and top 7 in defensive efficiency. The only way to stop the Bucks, the NBA’s 1st placed team in points per game, is to slow down Giannis. That’s especially true at Fiserv Forum. A ton of money was made on betting the Heat as underdogs last year in the postseason. While I’ll lean their side today, I’ll bet on their defense and pace affecting this game enough that we get a total well below 227.

Clippers -5 (-115), 1.5 units: If you listened to my Western Conference Playoff Preview podcast that I put out this week, you’d know that I don’t feel great about the Dallas Mavericks’ chances to make the Finals. I mean no disrespect by that; I just can’t see it. There’s a ton of elite teams in the West and the Clippers might be at the top of that heap. Los Angeles’ “other team” is one of the most complete units in the NBA. They’re #1 in the league in 3 point shooting percentage, they’re top 5 in effective field goal and true shooting percentage, and top 8 in both defensive and offensive efficiency, the latter of which they’re #2 overall. But forget all the stats– one look at their roster and it’s plain to see how elite they are. The question is: will they play in-sync with so little time all together and all healthy throughout the year? It bodes well for the Mavericks that Kristap Porzingis is back in the lineup, but how healthy is he? Dallas depends on Kristap as Luka’s number 2 guy but knee pain and soreness has kept him out of the lineup for long stretches of the season. While the Dallas roster isn’t shallow by any means, Kristap and others will have to step up immensely if they want to contend with LAC. In three meetings this year, the Mavericks got the best of the Clippers twice. One of those wins was against a Clippers squad missing Kawhi Leonard, but the other victory was a vintage Luka performance– the Slovenian scored 42 points and had 9 assists to go with it. Luka will need to do that over and over again if the Mavericks have a chance today and in this series. I’m betting on the more complete team to take game 1 by two possessions– the regular season is over.

Nets -8 (-110), 1 unit: This line has gotten a little too big for us to overly invest in but this is the only way I can look. Boston showed some really solid defense in their win against the Wizards to earn the 7th seed but this is a different beast. For the first time in a long time Durant, Harden and Kyrie are all healthy and ready to rock. The last thing Brooklyn wants to do is flounder in game 1 and give Boston confidence. I expect a fast-paced, lethal offensive attack from the Nets to start off this series at home. As good as the Celtics can play in moments, and as much as Brooklyn annoys the piss out of me, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker (although Tatum has played brilliantly recently) have limits to their production and I don’t see them being able to keep up. If you like the Celtics’ side and think they can be really competitive here, consider the under 229.5, too.

Nuggets -1 (-110), 2 units and Blazers/Nuggets under 227.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Blazers appear to be the more public team here and that only benefits our wager. I love the Blazers and Damian Lillard is easily one of my favorite players, but this line and the books appear to be discrediting what Denver has done this year. It’s especially downplaying how well they’ve played without Jamal Murray. Since Murray went down with a torn ACL, the Nuggets have won 72% of their games (13 of 18) and kept their spot atop the Western Conference. Sitting comfortably in the 3rd seed to open the playoffs. Nikola Jokic leads a deep roster full of skill-players that know exactly how to best help their teams’ chance to win. Aaron Gordon is perfect for his role as a gritty defender, rebounder, and high percentage shooter. Michael Porter Jr. has taken Murray’s place as a talented and athletic guard capable of scoring a ton of points on any given day. Solid offensive and defensive support from players like Millsap and Campazzo and others off the bench round up a rotation led by Jokic, who commands and facilitates his players better than any big man in the NBA. And all they do is win. Maybe it’s Jokic’s mentality, but the Nuggets are a very cerebral and consistent team. Kind of like the Colts in the NFL (especially when they have good quarterback play), the Nuggets are just too deep at every position to get outplayed most nights. The Blazers aren’t shallow either, but they’re not as consistent as Denver. Portland ended their 2021 season on a high, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including a meaningless win against the Nuggets in their final contest. Denver bested them twice before that in two games where Jokic dominated, scoring 41 in the first matchup and 25 in the second, which connects to the real issue of the Blazers– defense. Jokic and company have had their way with a Portland unit ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed. The Denver offense is top 8 in both ppg and offensive efficiency. The Portland offense can produce and they have a ton of talented scorers; it’s just really hard to be as efficient as they need to be to overcome their struggles on the other end of the floor. I trust what I’ve seen from Jokic and Denver this year at they’re hosting game 1 in their home arena– I’m on the Nuggets to win.

As far as the small under bet goes, the Blazers and Nuggets both play at surprisingly low tempos (19th and 26th, respectively). The nerves of game 1 and the expected positive regression that comes with playoff defense, combined with their slow tempos, has the total a little too high for me. I’ll take the under for a humble 1 unit.

To say I’m looking forward to these play-in games ending would be a grand understatement. I never liked the concept and the basketball gods seem to be punishing me for it. Once I saw how the first quarter ended in the Pacers/Warriors game, with 3 straight missed free throws to obliterate my over 60 bet, I knew it was going to be a long night. I also wanted to put a shotgun shell through my TV but fortunately I kept a modicum of control. Gambling is a grind and you have to take the ups and downs in stride and remember it’s a long term game. In the long term, you know what we do here at TheOddsBreakers. Win. Dusting myself off and onto today’s picks:

The Bets:

• Grizzlies/Warriors first half over 108 (-110), 1.5 units
• Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds (-120), 1.2 units
• Warriors -3.5 (-110), 2 units
• Warriors win (-180), 2.5 units

In case you missed Wednesday’s highly entertaining game between the Warriors and Lakers, it was clear who the best player on the court was– Steph Curry. Curry started off a little slow but then became his usual, unstoppable self. If he couldn’t get open beyond the arc, he would dribble around/through/over the Lakers’ big defenders and take it to the rim. When he did get open beyond the arc, he was as special as ever. Curry was 6 for 9 from 3 point land and had 37 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in a Warrior-high 41 minutes. His points-prop is appropriately high at 38 (-110) tonight. While that’s a little too high for me to wager on, I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored way beyond that total. Curry will be the key again Friday as the Warriors attempt to earn a playoff bid against a Grizzlies team who easily had their way with the Spurs. But who’s the key for Memphis?

I think it’s Jonas Valanciunas. The 6’11” big man had a fantastic game against a tough Spurs defense 2 nights ago, scoring 23 points and snagging 23 rebounds. I haven’t talked about Valanciunas enough in these articles but that’s on me. Accompanying Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks and other skill players for Memphis, Valanciunas plays basketball like he’s in a rugby contest. He looks like a taller Brock Lesnar with a beard, pushing and prying his way to the rim and roughing up defenders along the way. He also has an Jokic-like elegance to his shot, a nice 1-2 combo for a center who’s counted on often. The Warriors are a small team, everyone knows that, but they played pretty damn big against the Lakers. Kevon Looney grabbed 13 rebounds, Draymond Green had another 9 rebounds and Green made life difficult for the Lakers’ bigs every chance he had. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson is no slouch either, but Valanciunas is the focal piece for the Grizzlies’ front court offense. Golden State’s “bigs” might still be sore from bumping backs and knees with the big men of LAL, so I expect Valanciunas to have his way at the rim tonight. I don’t like the juice we’re paying, but Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds feels like a great bet.

The total for the first half (108) is too low. The 221 full game total feels more accurate– action tends to slow down in the 4th quarter and both of these teams can play defense– but the Warriors and Grizzlies play at a quick tempo and they match up well on offense against each other. Golden State loves to play perimeter ball and their guards find brilliant ways to get open. Memphis likes to drive the ball and out-muscle their opponents. I expect both squads to have early success until adjustments are made at the half so I’ll gladly take the first half total over. Two quarters over 54 points is not only plausible with these two offenses, it’s likely. On the season, Golden State averages 56.6 ppg at the half, while Memphis averages 55.9 (according to teamrankings.com).

Onto the actual game. This line is up to -210 on the Warriors moneyline, not exactly advantageous, but there’s a lot to like about them in this matchup. I also think they’re a fantastic parlay leg if you like another play in NHL or MLB. Golden State is up to -5 at most books now, which I’d consider a small play on, but I certainly love -3.5 more. I posted that I’m taking the Warriors at -3.5 yesterday, so sorry but not sorry– follow me on Twitter for those lookahead lines! Golden State was easily the better team in the first half against the Lakers. In the second half, different story. For anyone agonizing about the Warriors and claiming that they “should have won” Wednesday night, unfortunately you have to play 2 good halves to beat a team as resilient as the Lakers, and the Lakers absolutely outplayed them in the 2nd. Any-who, this is the second time the Warriors and Grizzlies are facing each other at the Chase Center; Golden State won the first. The Warriors were 2-1 against Memphis on the year and playing at home will be a big advantage Friday. We’ve seen that work wonders in the play-in tournament so far in 5 consecutive games– the home team won every contest.

The Warriors are also the better team. I don’t agree with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith very often but yesterday he said, “the Warriors will make the NBA pay when Klay Thompson returns next year.” I second that. Steve Kerr is one of the smartest coaches in the NBA, his young roster is developing and playing hard, and they have one of the best players on the planet in Steph Curry. In 2021 they’ve made huge strides on defense, their front court is formidable and they have players who can provide legitimate support for Curry on offense. They won’t be champions this year but I love the Warriors side and moneyline tonight.

The play-in tournament games are kicking my ass a little, but that’s okay. Just like the regular season, which started off with me on a losing streak, we’ll recover and be back to our humming win percentage before you know it. Let’s start that tonight!

The Bets:

Pacers/Warriors 1Q over 60 (-115), 2 units,
Pacers/Warriors under 237.5 (-110), 1.5 units,
and Lean, Pacers +3 (-110):

I know what you’re thinking. It’s the play in tournament, aka the playoffs, and we can’t treat totals the same. Unders hit way more. You’re right and you may be right tonight and that’s usually true about any playoff game in a professional sport. Defenses tend to thrive and players’ nerves are sky-high; every moment counts when facing elimination. For the full game that’s the way I’m looking, too. Both of these teams realize how their offenses can overwhelm their opponents and how quickly they can score. Emotions and anxiety will be high and shots won’t come as easy as they usually do. I think this will all happen eventually, but not in the 1st quarter.

Indiana and Washington are mirrors of each other. Not only do the Pacers and Wizards both predicate their philosophies on offensive production (the Pacers are 6th and the Wizards are 3rd in points per game), but they both have flawed defenses and even more importantly, they both move at light speed. That’s usually almost always a sure-fire recipe for a big total. While the Pacers are 11th in defensive efficiency, a skewed stat with how high their totals usually go, they’re 25th in points allowed. Washington is dead last, allowing 118.5 ppg. In the first quarter of play (and perhaps the first half, take a look at that as well), we should see the same teams we always do. Sabonis and Westbrook and Brogdon and Beal all sprinting down the court and sinking shots from all around the field– I expect an entertaining and high octane start to the game.

I won’t officially choose a side tonight, I think the line is dead-on, but I’ll lean Indiana. I don’t love what I’ve seen from Washington lately. I’m sure Westbrook will explode at some point but he doesn’t seem like himself. His confidence is waning, the shot selection is poor, and he’s not attacking the rim like he usually does. Beal not being at 100% surely doesn’t help the Wizards chances either. The Pacers aren’t great on defense but they proved how scrappy they can be against the Hornets. They’ve also lost 3 straight times to the Wizards in the regular season. Paybacks are a bitch and they have considerably more momentum than their foe heading into this contest. If Westbrook has another bad game and/or if Beal continues to show signs of volatility, this might not be close.

Either way, this should be an entertaining game between two teams that, in actuality, barely deserve to be in the playoffs. Don’t expect either of these teams to compete with the 76ers in the first round, but if you’re looking for good drama and two explosive offenses, Thursday’s game should deliver.