Welp, we were on most of the right sides yesterday; we just didn’t make the right bets. No problem– 57% is still our number and I feel good about today’s games. Is there anything better than a mild Saturday in the Spring, knowing a full slate of baseball is ahead? Besides a full lineup of football in the Fall, it’s hard to beat. Happy Saturday, good people!

Diamondbacks win (-105), 1.5 units: I can’t trust Fedde and I trust those Nats-bats even less. Scherzer did a fantastic job on the mound yesterday, as we figured he would, but it’s hard to imagine that Arizona won’t have more offense today. Erick Fedde mans the dirt for this early game 2, bringing an 8.53 ERA thanks to a clobbering from the Braves on April 7. He looked better in his second game against St. Louis, a team that’s mid to low-tier in runs per game and batting average. Ergo, I’m not sure what to take from that “improved” start from Fedde. Luke Weaver, on the other hand, is a pitcher I can get behind. Weaver absolutely dominated the Reds on April 14th. The state of Ohio was just starting to get used to Cincinnati’s premiere performances at bat until Weaver came through. Pitching a full 7 innings, he only permitted 1 hit. He also struck out 8 and the Reds couldn’t muster a single run. That’s pretty unreal. Nationals’ hitters are good and due for some positive regression, but they’re really struggling to convert their talent at bat into actual points. If Weaver can show the kind of command he did against the Reds, Washington is in a ton of trouble today. Give me the road dog for a win. I also lean over in this one (the over has hit 6 out of the last 7 games between these two clubs).

White Sox/Red Sox over 9 (-105), 1 unit: Just one unit because I’m slightly concerned I’m missing something (am I? I think it’s just one of those weird sports bettor feelings where it feels too easy), but Cease and Pivetta are two pitchers still struggling with command and control and both of these ballclubs have great offenses. Boston and Chicago are top 10 in runs per game, Boston has moved up to 2nd overall in batting average and hits per game, and the White Sox should see some improvement after facing above-average pitching against Cleveland. The only thing that concerns me here is the weather. It’ll be sloppy, chilly, and not incredibly humid. Still, both of these throwers are vulnerable and this feels like one of those 7-5, 8-3 type contests. Bang the over.

Dodgers/Padres first 5 under 3.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Full Game under 7.5 (-120), 1.2 units: Two separate bets. The first showdown between the super-hyped Padres and the 2020 World Series Champions did not disappoint. Pushing to the 12th inning, LAD and San Diego sent 17 different combined pitchers to the mound in a back and forth battle. The young stud Ryan Weathers again looked sensational for the Padres, while Walker Buehler had another commanding start. Both teams showed the unparalleled depth in their rotations. The Dodgers, who are short-handed with Bellinger and Pollock and other playmakers out, showed how talented and deep they are behind bat, too. Luke Raley hit a homerun in the 5th and Zach McKinstry drove in runs in crucial spots in the 8th and 12th innings. It felt like a heavyweight bout between two playoff teams. Needless to say, it’ll be good ongoing TV to watch their multiple series this year and to see who gains an edge. Tonight, everyone’s tired but Kershaw and Darvish. Yu Darvish had a rough first outing to start the season but he’s looked crisp ever since. In his last 2 games over 13 innings pitched, Darvish has only allowed 6 hits and 2 runs. He’s struck out 13 during that span. He also owns a WHIP of 0.96. Kershaw’s stats are very similar– a rare bad start in game 1 (although it was at Coors field) but he’s come on strong since, pitching 13 innings and allowing only 1 run. My first inclination was to hit the over in this game because of how worked the rotations were last night. On second thought, the depth and creativity deployed from each bullpen was on full display in game 1 and I trust it here again. Kershaw and Darvish could each pitch 6 innings, too. I see this game playing out with less hits, less fireworks, and a pitching grind to the finish. Give me the unders.

Twins (-110),  2 units: A grand slam from Justin Upton in the 7th sent the bye bye cue to the Twins’ hopes of winning game 1 in LA. The Angels took a commanding lead behind 5 solid innings from Heaney and a great showing from their bullpen. Onto the next one. LAA’s offense is starting to flex. Rated 3rd overall in hits per game and 4th overall in runs per game, the Angels bring a 0.265 batting average (also 4th overall) into today’s contest against the struggling Matt Shoemaker. Over 11 innings and 2 games, the Twins’ starter has allowed 10 hits, 5 runs and holds a WHIP of 1.00. Not abysmal, but his command is volatile and against this confident Angels unit who was due some positive regression after losing their series against Boston, I can’t say I trust Shoemaker. Still, Minnesota’s rotation is stronger than the Angels. Their bullpen is formidable and they hold a top 10 team ERA. Can they cool off the Angels’ bats today? That’s a different question. Los Angeles’ Jose Quintana has really had issues in 2021. In his last start he got blasted by the Blue Jays and allowed 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. His first start wasn’t much better, gifting the Astros with 4 runs and 5 hits in just over 3 innings of play. Quintana should regress to his mean, which is far better command than what he’s showing, but until he proves he’s out of his funk I have to play against him. The Twins have the better rotation and are top 10 in all the same offensive categories that I mentioned above for LAA. Minnesota is also averaging 6 runs per game on the road. I’ll take the Twins to outplay the Angels’ bats and tie up the series.

Happy Friday! Another day another dollar in MLB– we’re 28-20 thus far (58%). Let’s keep it rollin’ into the weekend!

Nationals -1.5 (-105), 2 units: I’m taking a shot on ol’ Mr. National today. Washington isn’t starting off the year the way they would have liked. They’re 1-3 at home and 3-7 overall and their play has been volatile. They present a good batting average but they don’t have a lot of runs to show for it (earning 3.44 per game, ranked 28th overall in MLB). Even their long-time ace Max Scherzer, who starts today, has had an up-and-down genesis in 2021. In his first start, which was ironically a win for Washington, he got slaughtered, allowing 5 hits and 5 home runs in six innings. Maybe slaughtered isn’t the right word, but Max is typically elite at preventing homeruns, posting under 1 homerun per 9 innings nearly his entire career. Scherzer looked way better in his most recent start against the Dodgers, allowing only 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings. That’s nearly impossible these days against LAD, so that’s a good sign for Max. Arizona starts Taylor Widener today, the awkward-shaped 26 year old who started off his career playing for a Yankees’ minor league affiliate. Widener has looked solid in 2 starts so far, owning a 2.45 ERA. His minor league stint showed a lot of promise until 2019, where the numbers took a sharp downward turn. Scherzer has never lost to the Diamondbacks and I expect him to out-play the young Widener, who was still learning basic math when Scherzer earned his first start in the majors. Those Nationals’ bats are certainly due a little positive regression, too. This feels like a great spot for the home team to flex.

Giants win (-134), 1.5 units: Ya gotta love what we’ve seen from Anthony DeSclafani so far. Then again, I like what I see from the Giants pitching in general. San Francisco sits at 3rd overall in runs earned against per game, 4th overall at hits allowed per 9 innings, and 5th overall at walks + hits per inning pitched, all categories that show how strong San Francisco’s defense and pitching has been thus far. DeSclafani is a big part of those results. The former Reds starter and 30 year old looks to be in his prime. So far he’s pitched 11 innings over 2 games, earned a 0.82 ERA, a 2.04 FIP, has allowed no homeruns, and has only allowed 10 hits while striking out 12. Showing a command reminiscent of his 2016 year in Cincinnati, DeSclafani has only permitted 1 lonely run in 2021. We like that heading into a matchup with the Marlins. Miami couldn’t find their bats to start the season but a little trip to Hot-Lanta did them some good, scoring an outrageous 31 runs in 4 games. Of course one abysmal pitching contest that amounted to 14 runs, 22 total on the day, in game 2 of that series had something to do with that. Miami is mid-tier in batting average and low-to-mid-tier in slugging percentage but they certainly have talent. Jesus Aguilar seems to always find a way to get on base and Adam Duvall already has 4 homeruns. Miami rolls out reserve picture Daniel Castano today, who looked good last year. In 2020, Castano posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29.2 innings during seven appearances and 6 starts. Not too shabby. In what should be a low scoring affair, I still see the value on San Francisco. Their defense and pitching has been excellent and I don’t think it’s a fluke– they know how to keep the game within reach and should be able to control this one. Give me the surprising, upstart Giants to snag another W behind DeSclafani. 

Dodgers first 5 (-150), 2 units: The Dodgers are motivated and able to overcome games against teams they routinely beat, which is easier said than done over such a long season, so how motivated will they be tonight against the hyped up Padres? Very. Walker Buehler picked right up where he left off last year– he looks fantastic– posting a 1.50 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 2 starts so far. In 2 wins and 12 innings of play, he’s struck out 8 hitters and only allowed 10 hits. The Padres draft choice Ryan Weathers looks the part– he’s a 21 year old hot-shot with solid velocity and command, but this is a big spot for the youngster. I’m sure San Diego will be ready to roll out their bullpen, which is one of the best in baseball, but Weathers has held his own in 3 games. He’s permitted only 2 hits over six innings and he’s struck out 7 at bat. Over 1 strikeout per inning in the majors so far? Not bad. This spot and LAD’s bats are too much for most pitchers in MLB, though, especially when Justin Turner mans the plate. Turner simply cannot be stopped so far. In 13 games he already has 4 homeruns, 14 RBIs and yields a .432 batting average. And it’s not like the rest of the Dodger’s lineup is subpar- they lead the majors in most offensive categories. I’ll fade the bullpen competition and go with the red-hot champs against a rookie pitcher. It just makes good sense, doesn’t it?

The absurd week in MLB continues, but we’re still hitting at 58% overall. Onto Thursday, cuz that’s allllll we can do is move on!

Mets/Phillies Run in 1st Inning? No (-150), 1.5 units: Well with the way this season is going, with the best pitcher in baseball on the mound for the Mets, that makes me want to bet on Philly. Right? I mean, makes sense, doesn’t it? Or definitely in the first 5 innings against deGrom. Yup, that makes the most sense. But seriously, I find myself doubting the numbers and doubting what should happen in games like this, because that’s just how absurd and asinine some of these early results have been. But then I remind myself of how we’re all supposed to be betting in the first place. Where is the value? What the best bet on this game? Is there a best bet on this game? As much as I want “lay the points” and the ML on the Mets and just choke out the money, I can’t. Philly is more than capable of hitting on even the best pitchers in MLB, and Zach Eflin, although steadily average throughout his career, can’t be too intimidated by the 26th ranked scoring Mets, although NYM has improved on their team batting average as the short season has progressed. Philadelphia has really struggled in this series, only scoring 4 runs over 3 games, including getting shutout against Stroman in the second game of a doubleheader. The temperature is chilly and windy today in Queens, NY, with rain approaching before first pitch and predicted to downpour again right around the game’s end. With deGrom on the dirt, the Phillies’ hitting and scoring woes, and some hopeful command from Eflin, who had 2 very different looking starts to the season, I’ll predict no runs in the 1st. The inflated juice and number, although not ideal, tells me this is probably the right side.

Game 1 of the Mariners/O’s: First 5 Over 5 (-110), 1.5 units and Game 1 over 7 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets. I don’t trust either one of these pitchers. Tom Fornelli from CBS Sports put it best on Baltimore’s Matt Harvey, “Since 2016, Harvey has pitched 421.1 MLB innings. He has an ERA of 5.81 and a WHIP of 1.505 in that span. He has been a fringe starter at best. Now he’s in Baltimore because Baltimore’s rebuilding and hoping to find a lottery ticket. Just like the Reds, Angels and Royals did before them. And maybe this year is different! Harvey has an ERA of 5.59 after two starts this season, but his FIP is a respectable 3.24. It could be the year he recaptures the magic. Or he’s the same guy we’ve seen the last five seasons. I’m betting on the latter.” The Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez isn’t much better. One of the worst starting pitchers thus far through 2 games, Gonzalez has allowed a staggering 17 hits and 12 runs over 10 innings. There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll see some positive regression, 2019 and 2020 were solid years, with low HR ratios and BAPIB scores and an ERA of 3.99 and 3.10, but his decreasing velocity and startling lack of command thus far isn’t a good sign. The only thing that concerns me here is how Baltimore hits a leftie– there’s not enough data to make a good call on that one. Either way, Seattle and Baltimore’s bats are shaky and inconsistent at best, but this is ideal weather for hitters today in Charm City (65 degrees, low wind, high humidity) and both squads are in the bottom 5 in earned run average allowed already in 2021. Bet the overs.

Padres First 5 innings -0.5 (-105), 1 unit: Well, heading into this week it looked like Chris Paddack might be the weakest link of the 2021 Padres rotation. While Snell and Musgrove were looking unhittable and with clean games from Yu Darvish in the bank, Paddack couldn’t stay on the mound. The 6’5″ 25 year old got in just just eight innings of work in 2 games, allowing 5 earned runs while striking out six and walking four. Now, 3 games into the series and down 1-2, Paddack is the only chance the Padres have to avenge and tie up this series. Well, not the only chance. The Padres still own arguably the best bullpen in MLB, but it’s been getting tried and tested more against a Pirates team that’s getting hot behind their bats. I think Paddack can still turn things around. Not long ago, young Paddack was one of the more exciting pitchers in 2019, finishing the season 0.981 WHIP over 26 games. His velocity is still above-average and he’s due for some positive regression. Here’s to a bet that he can slow down the Pirates in the first half of this game. He’s gotta be ultra-motivated to do so.

Dodgers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: What am I stupid? I’ll keep betting this until it doesn’t work. Better pitching, sensational and limit-setting defense even when they allow hits (the Rockies equaled the Dodgers in hits last night, but LAD still covered the run line), and consistent, powerful hitting. Austin Gomber has looked good so far this year but as usual, I don’t think it matters. This is just a considerably better ballclub in LA.