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College Football Week 10 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Since 2 games were cancelled:
West Virginia +5 – 2 star premium
UNC vs Duke over 62.5 – 2 star premium
LA Tech vs North Texas -1.5 O/U 71.5 –
North Texas Games average 83 points and they play lightning fast.  They average 81.5 plays per game and 19 seconds per play ranking them number 1 in the league for speed.   The Mean Green Machine also gives up 7 yards per play making them lose fast just in case they are not scoring every drive.  LA Tech plays at an average pace but they are at least putting up an average 30 points per game against teams with better defenses in general than North Texas.  They give up 32 points per game and are coming off of a huge win vs UAB.  I think this is a good spot to take this over being that LA Techs defense could let down this week.  I think that this number should be around 76 points per game.  The low spread could also mean overtime here or at least a shootout type game with no clocking it in the 4th.   I like this over.
LA Tech vs North Texas over 71.5 – 2 star premium shared play.
CANCELLED 🙁
Washington vs California -2 O/U 43.5 – 
This one is pretty simple to me.  Look at the history of this game the last 2 years under coach Wilcox.   Cal upset Washington both times.  They seam to have the Huskies number.   Now Washington has a new coach with the same system in Jimmy Lake who was the defensive coordinator there the last few years, and have a new offensive coordinator in John Donovan who came from the NFL Jacksonville Jaguars for gods sakes.  Washington ranks 127th in returning production with only 30% of their offense coming back.  They at least return 7 starters on defense.  Cal ranks 1st in returning production in the country and they return 7 starters on defense themselves.  on offense at 93%.  They lose their top 3 tacklers but I am not concerned as much about the defense as Justin Wilcox former Defensive coordinator at Wisconsin has a great defensive mind.  Washington’s new QB Jacob Simon has no experience throwing only 3 passes all of last year.  I gave this out at +1.5 but still like it at -2.  Take the Bears.
Cal Bears -2 – 2 star premium shared play
Georgia vs Florida -3.5 O/U 52.5 –
Time for the biggest cocktail party in the US taking place on the neutral field of TIAA bank Stadium.   Both fan bases will be there with Bells on.   Lets take a a deep dive here.  Georgia has the better defense allowing 16.2 points per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Florida’s defense improved last week but they still allow 29 points per game at 5.82 yards per play.   Georgia’s offense however went back into the stone-age last week against Kentucky only scoring 14 points.  Georgia averages 29 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.  Florida torched Missouri last week and averages a monsterous 7.5 yards per play on offense giving them a net 1.68 yards per play to Georgia’s 1 yard per play.   Now Georgia has had the more difficult schedule facing Bama, Auburn and Kentucky but Florida kept it close at Texas A&M and is now playing closer to the swamp.   One thing that I like about the Gators is that they did well against the run allowing only 3.75 yards per rush.  Running the ball is what Georgia needs to do to win games and if they get jumped it could be lights out.   The way the Gators needs to play this game is to stack that box and force Stetson Bennet to have to make plays.   Kentucky figured that out and they just couldn’t score many points.   I like the Gators here to not only cover but to win this one outright.
Florida +3.5 2 star premium play and sprinkle

NFL Week 9 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday afternoon:

Sharp Money On:

NY Giants +3.5 to +2.5 at Washington – 56% tickets and 88% of the money.

LV Raiders +3 down to +1 – 61% tickets and 88% of the money.

Saints +5.5 at Tampa Bay – 52% tickets and 79% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Green Bay vs San Francisco under 51 to 48.5 – 51% tickets and 72% of the money.

Carolina vs Kansas City over 50.5 to 52.5 – 57% tickets and 96% of the money.

Denver vs Atlanta over 47 to 50 – 66% tickets and 96% of the money.

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay under 54 to 51.5 – 41% tickets and 94% of the money.

New England vs NY Jets over 41.5 to 42.5 – 50% tickets and 86% of the money.  I agree there.  Both Ds are bad now

College Football Week 10 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday afternoon:

Sharp Money On:

Wyoming -3 to -3.5 hosting Colorado State – 50% tickets and 90% of the money.

Louisiana -13 to -14 hosting Arkansas State – 53% tickets and 94% of the money.

Georgia State -17 to -17.5 hosting Louisiana Monroe – 35% tickets and 62% of the money.

Memphis -17 to -18 at South Florida – 53% tickets and 93% of the money.

Boston College -13 to-14 at Syracuse – 45% tickets and 68% of the money.

Minnesota -7 to -7.5 at Illinois – Dual action 74% tickets and 94% of the money.  Covid issues in Illinois.

Oregon State +3 to -1.5 hosting Washington State.  Dual action 66% tickets and 75% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Wyoming vs Colorado State over 51 to 52.5 – 50% tickets and 92% of the money.

Air Force vs Army under 43 to 41 – 51% tickets and 91% of the money.

Arkansas State vs Louisiana over 63.5 to 66.5 – 62% tickets and 92% of the money.  I disagree there.

Tulsa vs Navy over 54 to 57 – Dual action 75% tickets and 94% of the money.

Nebraska vs Northwestern over 53 to 55 – 49% tickets and 94% of the money.

Michigan State vs Iowa Under 48.5 to 46.5 – 50% tickets and 95% of the money.   I agree here.

Charlotte vs MTSU over 61.5 to 65.5 – 55% tickets and 93% of the money.

UTSA vs Rice under 49.5 to 46.5 – 39% tickets and 99% of the money.

Western Kentucky vs FAU under 42 to 39.5 – Dual action 83% tickets and 96% of the money.

Iowa State vs Baylor under 54.5 to 47.5 – 50% tickets and 91% of the money.

Washington State vs Oregon State over 60.5 to 65.5 – 40% tickets and 81% of the money.

Washington vs Cal under 48.5 to 43.5 – 53% tickets and 90% of the money.

Podcast 65 – 20 – With Brian Bonito – College Football Week 10 & NFL Week 9 – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sports Betting
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

We have a great show for you today!   Brian Bonito @My_Bankroll is back to break down some College Football and NFL with some leans and plays for this weekend!  First, Kiev talks about 3 additional states that joined in on the sports betting fun!  Make sure you tweet your lawmakers if your state isn’t on board.  Next, Kiev gives out a college football play that he likes to start your weekend.  Then, Brian comes on to break down more college football games and gives out some good thoughts!  Next, Brian and Kiev give us a few free plays NFL plays for week 9!  Then, Kiev gives out even more NFL plays and his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 5-3 as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out at 2.5-1.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.

NFL:  Detroit vs Minnesota – Seattle vs Buffalo and more!

NCAA: Clemson vs Notre Dame – Georgia vs Florida and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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NFL Week 8 Misleading Scores and Week 9 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Misleading Scores:

Tennessee out-gained Cincinnati 441 to 367 yet lost 31-20.  1-0 turnover ratio and bad defense hurt them.

Indianapolis only out-gained Detroit 366 to 324 yet won 41-21.  2-0 turnover ratio did it.

Green Bay out-gained Minnesota 400 to 324 yet lost 28-22.  1-0 turnover ratio hurt.

The LA Rams out-gained Miami 471 to 145 yet lost 28-17.  A 4-2 turnover ratio and special teams killed them.

Baltimore out-gained Pittsburgh 457 to 221 yet lost 28-24.  A 4-1 turnover ratio hurt.

LA Chargers out-gained Denver 485 to 351 yet lost 31-30.   2-1 turnover ratio hurt.

Motivational Spots:

Let down spots:

Steelers at the Cowboys after beating Baltimore.

Dolphins at the Cardinals after beating LA Rams.

Broncos at the Falcons after that massive comeback vs LA Chargers.

Minnesota hosting Detroit after beating Green Bay.

Get up spots:

Dallas hosting Pittsburgh has nothing to lose.

Jets hosting the Patriots is interesting.   Cam doesn’t look good.

Packers in a revenge spot vs the 49ers.

Look ahead spots:

Seahawks looking past the Bills to the Rams.

 

NFL Week 9 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Detroit vs Minnesota -4 O/U 52.5 – 

I am going to go against the over-reaction here.  The Vikings beat the Packers last week and I am not sure what to think about that.  Did Cousins magically get better or was this game due to the Packers horrible run defense that the 49ers exposed last year.  I think it was a bit of both but if the Packers had 1 more quarter, I think they would have won that game.   The Lions actually beat themselves last week against the Colts with 2 turnovers.  They were actually pretty close in total yards.  The Lions have been a sieve at defense against the pass this year being that their secondary was quite injured but now they got most of them back and Desmond Trufant should be able to play this week.  The Lions have been a pretty good road team this year at 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU including wins vs the Falcons and the Cardinals on the road.  Stafford is precautionary Covid right now but I think that he plays.   I think the Vikings let down here and the Lions feast.

Detroit +4 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay -5.5 O/U 51.5 – 

The oldest trick in the book to betting totals is to first look at the weather report.  Does rain and up two 22 mile per hour winds say anything about this game?   One thing that these teams don’t do extremely well is run the ball.  They are both average rushing teams and both teams need to win through the air.   Well that will be hard to do when A)  The weather looks bad and B) These teams already played each other and know what to look out for.  The biggest part of this handicap is how both of these teams defend the run.   Tampa Bay ranks number 1 against the run and New Orleans ranks number 3.   Both teams will be stuck here only relying on the run if the weather stays bad and even if the weather is somewhat cooperative, this total is way to high for this game.

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay under 51.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Refuse to Lose teasers are 5-3:  We are going to tease the Saints to +11.5 with the Bills to +8.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Bow to the gambling gods Parlay!  1-5 on these: Fresno State -404, Georgia State -1050, Iowa State -550, Memphis -1000, Charlotte -188, NFL Houston Texans -330

College Football Week 11 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let Down Spots:

Virginia hosting Louisville after beating North Carolina outright.

Michigan State at Iowa after beating rival Michigan.

Cincinnati hosting Houston after beating Memphis could let down.

Texas hosting West Virginia after beating Oklahoma state is a possible let down spot.

Get up spots:

Airforce at Army after that Boise State debacle.

East Carolina hosting Tulane after that Tulsa garbage.

Michigan at Indiana after that horrible in-state loss is a get up spot.

Iowa needs to get it together hosting Michigan State.

Nebraska at Northwestern is one.

Look ahead spots:

Boston College could be looking past Syracuse to Notre Dame.

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 9 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

North Carolina out-gained Virginia 534 to 418 – 2-1 turnover ratio hurt.

Louisville out-gained Virginia Tech 548 to 466 yet lost 42-35 – 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.

Illinois out-gained purdue 475 to 447 yet lost 31-24.  4-2 turnover ratio hurt.

AirForce out-gained Boise State 484 to 459 yet lost 49-30.  No turnovers but bad efficiency hurt them.

Oklahoma State out-gained Texas 530 to 287 yet lost 41-34.  4-0 turnover ratio killed them.

East Carolina out-gained Tulsa 456 to 428 yet lost 34-30.  The officials fixed the game for Tulsa on their last drive.

Clemson out-gained Boston College 448 to 275 yet only won 34 to 28.  Only a 1-0 turnover ratio.

Duke only out-gained Charlotte 401 to 348 yet they won 53-19.  3-1 turnover ratio helped.

UAB out-gained Louisiana Tech 482 to 381 yet lost 37-34.  3-1 turnover ratio did them in.

 

Cashman’s Week 10 College Football Projection Models

By
Alan Cashman
-

Here is the link for WK 10 CFB Game Projections.  You can also use the link for the rest of the WK 10 schedule as I add the games

Week 10 CFB Game Projection Models

Good Luck,

Alan

Fantasy Football Week 9

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye Weeks:  Bengals, Browns, Rams and Eagles

Key Injuries:

Kenny Golladay WR – Hip surgery

Jonathan Taylor RB – Ankle injury and is day to day

AJ Dillon RB – Covid 19 – Week to week

George Kittle TE – Ankle injury and fracture in foot.  Out at least 8 weeks

TY Hilton WR – Groin injury

Dionte Johnson WR – Hamstring Injury

Garner Minshew QB – Will miss this week’s game.  Not sure why.   Thumb injury.

Jimmy Garropolo QB – Banged up Ankle.

Darrell Henderson RB – Thigh injury

Players coming off of IR:

Michael Pittman WR – came off of IR

Waiver Wire:

Jordan Wilkins RB – Huge game last week

Zach Moss RB – 18 fantasy points

Malcomb Brown RB – for Henderson injury

Jamal Williams RB – Jones and Dillon injuries

Nyheim Hines RB – Had a great game vs the Lions

Jordan Reed TE – For Kittle injury.  This will be huge

Daeshawn Hamilton WR – Good game vs the Chargers

Nick Mullens QB – Will start Thursday.

Mecole Hardman WR – 9 Targets last week

Marvin Hall WR – For Golladay injury

Non-starters trending up for Week 9:

Benny Snell RB – vs that bad Cowboys rushing D

James Robinson RB – vs that bad Houston rushing D

John Brown WR – vs a bad Seattle pass D

Daeshawn Hamilton WR – vs Atlanta should have a good game

Marvin Jones WR – vs the Vikings pass D

James White RB – vs the horrible Jets D

Jacobi Meyers WR – vs the Jets D

Damien Harris RB – vs the Jets D

Busts:

Ezekiel Elliot RB – vs the Steelers D

Jonathan Taylor RB – vs the Ravens D

Mark Ingram RB – vs the Colts D

Leonard Fournette RB – vs the Saints D

Devon Singletary RB – vs the Seahawks run D

Evan Engram TE – vs Washington’s D

Marquis Brown WR – vs the Colts D

Nasty Sleeper:  

John Brown vs Seattle’s D

 

 

 

 

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