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OKC Thunder vs. DEN Nuggets – 1.19.2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Denver Nuggets players pictured together

 

This line probably doesn’t make much sense to bettors; OKC has a better overall ATS record and ATS away record, they’ve had 4 days rest, and they have a better overall record than Denver. The Thunder have played very efficient basketball as of late, but I think they’re due for some negative regression.

Look what happened to them recently against the Lakers. LAL’s bigs locked down OKC’s offense and controlled the game, with Anthony Davis, Montrezl Harrell and Lebron James scoring over half of the Lakers’ total points. OKC can hang with and beat the likes of Chicago, Orlando, and New Orleans, but they struggle against elite teams.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are due for some positive regression. Denver scores in bunches, virtually guaranteed 110-115 points per game (they average 115.2 ppg currently and they haven’t played their best basketball). I don’t think the Thunder can keep up. The Nuggets know they need to play better defense, too. This is a sneaky line from the books and we’re seeing right through it. I’m on the Nuggets side.

Pick: Nuggets -10 (-116), 1.5 units

College Basketball Tuesday Free Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Purdue guard Brandon Newman (5) guards Ohio State Duane Washington Jr. (4) during the second half of an NCAA men's basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020 at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette. Bkc Purdue Vs Ohio State

Purdue vs Ohio State -5 O/U 146.5

Both of these teams have been very hot winning 3 big 10 games in a row.   Purdue has some size and Ohio State has finesse.  During the first matchup, Ohio state was in the game for most of the duration losing 67-60.  They did not shoot well at all.  The Buckeye’s were 6-24 from 3 point land and 47% from 2 while Purdue was 57% from 2 and 30% from behind the arc.   I think that the script changes this game looking at how these teams have performed at home and on the road.  Ohio State averages 80.4 points per game at home while Purdue averages only 68.2 points on the road.  I know some of these home games include easier teams for Ohio State but they scored over 80 in every big 10 home game thus far.   Purdue’s best away victory on the road was probably against a struggling Michigan State team and they only needed 55 to win that game.  Purdue has had some stinkers on the road vs Miami, Rutgers and Iowa.   I think Ohio State wins by some margin here.

Ohio State -5 – 2 star premium shared play

College Basketball Picks- 1.19.2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Michigan player showing excitement and fired up

 

Free Pick: UNC Wilmington -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Call me crazy but I’m going back to the well and putting another bet on UNC Wilmington to cover today’s spread. It’s hard for any team to win back-to-back games against a superior team, let alone a team that’s looked so much better on offense than what they showed in the first contest. Give me UNCW in a revenge game for all the same reasons I wrote about in my post yesterday. The Seahawks should be warmed up and ready to rock after that big layover.

Free Pick: Michigan -10 (-115), 2 units: This has all the ingredients for a major beatdown. Showered with national praise after they blew out Wisconsin, Michigan was embarrassed by the Gophers last weekend. The #7 team in the country was a turnover machine against Minnesota, giving up the ball 20 times, nearly double their average per game. Maryland is one of the worst teams in the nation in forcing turnovers, and tonight they’ll be without one of their best defenders in Liam Robbins. The Terrapins can play effective small-ball, but their bench is shallow and they struggle against bigs. Michigan’s freshman star Hunter Dickinson, who was unstoppable last time against the Terps, will be highly motivated after his abysmal performance last weekend, too. Give me the Wolverines in a great retribution spot. Key Trends: Michigan outscores their opponents by an average of 17.3 points at home. Michigan is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets – 1.18.2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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A picture of NBA Superstars and Nets' teammates James Harden and Kevin Durant

 

The MLK Day NBA slate features a showcase matchup between the two favorites to win the Eastern Conference. The Nets come into this contest on fire, albeit controversially, but the addition of James Harden has only added more reason to believe in Brooklyn. How are teams going to stop that dynamic duo? If/when Kyrie returns, the Nets will have 3 clutch superstars on offense. Personally I don’t believe they’re championship material, but it’ll be a great soap opera to watch and the Nets are undoubtedly a juggernaut offense.

The Bucks are still the Bucks. They lead the Eastern Conference with a record of 9-4 and Giannis Antetokounmpo continues his dominance in the regular season. Their defense is stout, but the Nets are a different animal.

Both of these squads should be poised to entertain in the primetime TNT slot. I’ll take a shot at the first half instead of the full game total, since these rivalry games tend to get scrappy in the 4th quarter, which can inhibit scoring.

Free Pick: First Half Total over 117 (-110), 1.2 units

Key Facts: The Nets are #1 in ppg, the Bucks are #6 in ppg, and they both play at a top 6 pace.

UNC Wilmington vs. Towson – 1.18.2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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An image of a UNC Wilmington basketball player leading his team down the court.

 

This spot may favor Towson as they travel back home desperate for a win after starting 1-5 this season. The UNC Wilmington Seahawks haven’t played in over 3 weeks, either. I just think it’s a really bad matchup for the Tigers.

UNC Wilmington is averaging over 80 ppg and Towson has one of the worst defenses in the country. In fact, the Tigers have yet to keep a team under 70 points. Towson’s offense has serious struggles, too, averaging just 67 ppg (270th in the country). The Seahawks’ long layoff is probably the reason why the line is so small, but UNCW is clearly the better team.

Take a look at Towson in the first half, but I don’t think the Tigers’ inept offense can keep up with the Seahawks down the stretch.

Free Pick: UNC Wilmington -2 (-115), 1.5 Units

Key Trend: Towson is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Free Pick: Connor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 2 – UFC 257

By
Chris R. Farley
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Connor McGregor and Dustin Poirier, side by side

 

Back in 2014, these two octagon warriors battled without much drama. McGregor dropped Dustin in less than 2 minutes, avoiding Dustin’s patented uppercut and overwhelming him with high-arching kicks and straight punches. It was a dominant performance, but that was before Connor blew up to superstardom and Dustin was still green. On Saturday night (Sunday in Abu Dhabi), the two meet again and a lot has changed. I think it’ll make for a much more competitive fight.

McGregor made his UFC return last January, making quick work of Donald Cerrone with another first round TKO. The Irishman’s talent is sometimes overshadowed by his fame, but make no mistake about it- McGregor is one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. Dustin knows that, and Dustin is the main reason why I think this fight goes over 2 rounds.

Dustin Poirier is a much different fighter now. Before losing to Khabib, who’s arguably the greatest UFC fighter of all time (or at least top 3), Poirier was on a 4 fight win streak, knocking off one big name after another: Pettis, Gaethje, Alvarez, Holloway, and he almost caught Khabib, too. In his last fight, Poirier went the distance with Dan Hooker, another striking specialist, and won by decision. Anyone who’s watched Poirier the past few years knows that his boxing is much improved. He has great power, he’s incredibly precise, landing nearly 50% of his punches, and his defense is significantly better. He can also take a serious beating, something he’s become a bit famous for.

Although Connor fights aggressively by nature, we think he’ll enter this fight with more respect (and more patience) for Dustin. That’s probably a wise move. Poirier will be highly motivated but he’ll have to be guarded, too, unless he wants another repeat of 2014. I think it’ll mean a calculated, strike-for-strike contest that could very well go the distance.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+130), 2 units

Note: In a recent interview with ESPN’s Ariel Helwani, McGregor expressed respect for Dustin and said that he hopes the fight goes all five rounds. Not a bad sign for this bet!

Free Pick: TB Buccaneers vs. NO Saints – Jan 17, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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The final game of the Divisional Round is the third meeting between the Bucs and Saints as Tom Brady looks to recreate magic and move one step closer to the big prize. The Bucs ended their season on a high, taking care of business by winning 4 straight games before defeating Washington last weekend. The Saints, although plagued with injuries all year, claimed the #2 seed in the NFC and knocked off the Bears with ease on Wildcard weekend. In their first two meetings, the Saints beat the Bucs convincingly (38-3, 34-23). Talking heads said all week that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a row, but unfortunately there’s no data to support that claim. I think the Saints do it again on Sunday.

The Saints big 3 on offense- Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas- have all played together in only 3 games this year: last week, and the two games against the Bucs. The Bucs have a top 10 defense and add Devin White, who led their team with 140 tackles. On paper it looks like an even matchup, but the real advantage is on the other side of the ball. The Saints defensive line absolutely dominated the line of attack and Tampa’s WRs couldn’t get open in the first 2 contests. Sometimes teams just match up really well against other teams. Then again that’s nothing new for New Orleans, who may have the deepest roster in the NFL.

The real talent disparity here is on the sidelines. Sean Payton is arguably the most creative offensive mind in football (don’t read this, Andy Reid). His team plays disciplined, motivated, and in-sync. Bruce Arians gets a lot of love from the media, and we’re pretty sure he’d be a great time at your local dive bar, but he’s not an exceptional schemer or motivator. Tom Brady can only do so much. Once Tom-terrific gets rattled, and he will, this one could get ugly. Bet on the Saints with confidence!

Pick: Saints -3 (-115), 2 units

Key Trend: Teams that allowed 10 points or less in their last playoff game are 52-31-2, 63% ATS (New Orleans). -Credit Ralph Michaels

Free Pick: LA Rams vs. GB Packers – Jan 16, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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A picture of Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald

 

It’s the battle of Aarons Saturday as Aaron Donald and the Rams’ #1 defense head to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers for our first Divisional Round playoff contest. The Rams defense leads the league in a ton of categories, including yards allowed, points allowed, passing yards allowed, and first downs allowed. Meanwhile, the Green Bay offense leads the league in a bunch of offensive categories, including points per game, points per drive, passing TDs, and fewest turnovers. What a conundrum! This should lead to an entertaining game that goes back and forth as the sun sets in Wisconsin, but we favor the Packers and the far better QB.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t having a good year; he’s having a phenomenal year. The two-time MVP has never looked better, throwing for 4299 yards, an over 70% completion percentage, 48 TDs and only 5 INTs. Even in the modern NFL, those are insane stats. He’s also getting the ball out significantly quicker than last year (around 2.5 seconds per pass) and throwing receivers open at eye-popping angles like the Aaron of old. I respect Jalen Ramsey and what he’s done all year- he’s undeniably the NFL’s best cornerback, shutting down the likes of D.K. Metcalf (twice), Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans- but the connection between Rodgers and Devante Adams is something special. We know Jared Goff will be starting for LAR, and that gives us even more reason to fade the Rams. Coach Sean McVay is a brilliant schemer, but it’s hard to back an average QB against a Packers offense that, although challenged today, should be able to still put up plenty of points. Goff is inconsistent and can freeze under pressure; how will the Rams keep up? I don’t think they can, especially not with 8,000 Green Bay screaming fans back at Lambeau. The Packers defense will make plenty of stops, as they have all season, and Rodgers will be even more fired up with a home crowd. This doesn’t bode well for LAR. Packers will pull away in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Packers -6.5, 2 units

Key Trend: Playoff teams that lost the conference championship the year prior are 33-15 ATS, and 21-3 ATS when facing an opponent who just won by double digits (GB fits both these categories). Credit- Ralph Michaels

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Plays – Sports Wagering

By
Kiev O'Neil
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LA Rams vs Green Bay -6.5 ish O/U 45.5
This should be a very interesting game as it has the lowest total of the four and you have Matt LaFleur who was the squire and offensive coordinator under Sean McVey a few years back at the Rams.  The old teacher vs Student backstory.   LaFleur learned a lot about offense under McVey and even earlier under then offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan when he was Matt Ryans QB coach in 2016.  Let’s look at the lines.  What this total is telling you is that the Rams defense will show up.   When this happens, the rule of thumb is to lean towards the dog.  Now this rule certainly has it’s exceptions but not during playoff time.   Each of these 2 teams have 1 major weakness.  Green Bay can’t stop the run that well allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.  They haven’t had to worry about this issue so much due to the fact that they were almost always leading by halftime and teams had to throw the ball.   I think that it is imperative that Green Bay gets the lead due to this issue.  The weakness that the Rams have is that they tend to not be able to score much on offense when teams are on to their deceptive play calling.   Sean McVey is a master of misdirection but playin against Matt LaFeur, who knows him quite well, is probably more of a detriment to his offense in Green Bay.  Both of these teams have a net +.7 yards per play so I do not see any advantage for there for either team but I think there is an advantage for the rams when you look at strength of schedule.  The Rams schedule ranks 9th in overall strength and the Packers rank 31st.  Green Bay had it easy facing the Lions, Vikings and the Bears all twice in that bad NFC North division.   I do not have the Packers 5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field.  Maybe more like 2 points.  So a 4.5 point spread is what I think that the line should be.  My Algorithm has the Packers winning 26 to 22.5 so a -3.5 point spread.   Due to this I think the Rams have a shot at keeping this game close and I have a slight lean to the over.   Taking the points but I think that Green Bay will win the game.   Wait until the last minute to get the best line.
LA Rams +7 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Baltimore vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 50
  • This is quite the interesting matchup.  Rushing team vs Passing team.
  • Buffalo has been playing great down the stretch but they did have some problems with the colts last week and that game had some bad coaching decision on both ends.  The Colts should have kicked field goals when they had the chance in the first half and the Bills let the Colts back into the game towards the end with some poor play calling from McDermott when Josh Allen kept throwing the ball and had a 23 yard fumble that the Bills were fortunate to get back.
  • The Ravens have been playing well down the stretch as well and they had a nice win last week vs the Titans.   If you would have told me they would only score 20 points vs that bad Titans defense, then I would have thought Tennessee would have won outright.
  • The Book is out on Lamar Jackson and it is to contain him in the pocket and keep him from getting chunk yards running the football down and making him be a pocket passer but that’s easier said that done.   The Titans could not do that well with Lamar racking up 136 yards rushing.
  • The Bills this year had issues facing QBs that can run the ball themselves against Mahomes and Kyler Murray but they at least were able to shut Cam Newton down.
  • At the same time, Josh Allen is a pretty mobile QB and has over 400 rushing yards this year.  The Ravens themselves struggled against guys like Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes this year.
  • The Ravens Strength is their defense and rushing the ball being the top rushing team by far at 194 rushing yards per game.   They are however dead last in 100 passing yards per game.  The good news for the Ravens is that Buffalo is bad on stopping the run allowing 4.7 per rush.
  • Buffalo’s strength is the pass at 3rd best in the league 290 passing yards per game.  The Ravens are pretty good against the pass but they haven’t performed well against the best of the best and their stregth of schedule ranks only 29th on Sagarin.
  • I have these 2 teams equal in my power ratings so I think if you like the Bills side a little with the home field, grabbing it under the key number of 3 makes sense.   I think whomever plays the QB position best will win this game and that might mean that Josh Allen will have to run the ball a bit himself.
  • Both teams are a positive .4 yards per play so that is pretty equal.
  • If Buffalo wants to win this game, they need to cheat up to stop the run completely and make Lamar throw the ball.   Take away the middle of the field and play some man defense.  Make Lamar throw the ball to the sidelines.  If they lose to that then tip your cap.  Also, don’t go to dime coverage if you are winning because the Ravens will capitalize on chunk yards vs that.
  • If the Ravens want to win, then they need to pound the ball well and set up the pass.  Try and push the defensive ends outside so lamar can run on pass plays.  He isn’t a typical QB rush type of QB.
  • My Algorithm has the game 28.5 to 26 meaning the spread is -2.75 for that so rather than looking at the side, I think the over is in play being that my total is 54.5
  • Last week the Baltimore/Tennessee over was 54.5 and the Indianapolis/Buffalo was 51.5 so I do not see why it went down this much when the Ravens D is although very good, they did have such an easy schedule this year in that AFC North.  Also, last week that Buffalo game had multiple opportunities to go over the 51 instead of pushing.

Lean Buffalo but Take the Over 50 – 3 star premium shared

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans -3 O/U 52 –

This is the 3rd meeting this year between these teams and you know how the saying goes.  3rd time is the charm right?   WRONG!  Now Tampa bay is a solid team but I really think that they took a big hit when run stopper Vita Vea got hurt during the year.  Tampa has been hot the past 5 weeks or so scoring over 25 points per game but we have to remember that it was against the Vikings, Lions, Washington and Atlanta Twice.   The Bucs really only had one great performance vs a good team and that was vs the Packers at home way back on October 18th.  That was their only game that they won against an over .500 team due to losses vs the Rams, the Saints twice, Kansas City and the Bears.   Tampa is pretty good against the run but weak against the pass as you saw the 3rd string quarterback for Washington bang them up quite a bit.   Tampa is a nice +.9 yards per play but the Saints are +.7 and didn’t have Drew Breese for 3 games or so.  My power ratings has the Saints 1.25 points better on a neutral field and there will be some fans at this game so I think that this line is short by a half point or so.   My Algorithm has this game Saints 25.5 to 24.5 but remember that it factors in the time that Taysom Hill was quarterback.  The Saints beat this team by double digits twice this year and I think I can play it at the 3.

Saints -3 – 2 star premium shared play

ATS.IO Podcast

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Here is an industry leading podcast that has taught so many people the best practices of handicapping and sports betting for over the past 8 years.   In this episode, Adam Burke brings on Kiev O’Neil to discuss the NFL Divisional Playoffs!  Click here:

 

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