21 Free Plays – Sports Betting

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January 22, 2021

Michigan vs Purdue +3 O/U 138

This is going to be a great matchup for Friday’s viewing pleasure. Michigan is maybe the best team in the big 10 next to Iowa and Purdue is the hottest team in the big 10 ripping 4 wins in a row against Michigan State, Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State. Purdue has a few big guys down low with Travion Williams and 7’4 Freshman Zach Edney and one would think that they stuff people down low when in reality, they give up 63% of their points in the paint. Michigan is a top scorer down making 71% of their points in the paint with with a few big guys. 6’10 Austin Davis is a senior and 7’1 Freshman Hunter Dickenson has become a real surprise this year playing 63% of the minutes. Both teams have the same weakness in turning the ball over with Purdue ranking 13th worst in the Big 10 at 18.7% in conference play and Michigan ranking 14th or dead last at 19.2%. Besides down low, Michigan shoots the ball better than Purdue ranking number 9 in effective FG % at 58.2 while Purdue ranks 76th at 52.5. Even on defense Michigan ranks better than Purdue. I have to go with the Wolverines here as the short favorite on the road who are probably still feeling that away game loss vs Minnesota.

Michigan -3 (I like it up to -4) – 2.5 star premium shared play

Niagara vs Quinnipiac -1 O/U 131

MAAC teams are 103-83-7 at home since 2019.
Quinnipiac is 3-1 ATS at home so far this year.
Niagara is 12-15 on the road since 2019
This is more of a fade to Niagara. Their best win was against number 245 Albany and they lost some stinkers to teams like Rider and 2 to Manhattan
Baker Dunleavy who coaches the Bobcats has a pretty big basketball background as you probably remember his dad Mike Dunleavy in the NBA. They don’t have a good offense but they have a solid defense ranking number 2 in the conference.
Quinnipiac has done well the first game of each conference series with a win vs Manhattan and taking Monmouth to overtime.
Niagara is 1-4 ATS the first games of their series.

Quinnipiac -1 – 1.5 star premium shared play

NBA Picks and Predictions – January 22, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 22, 2021

Hawks -5 (-110), 1.5 units: The poor Timberwolves will continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns, which is really putting a black hole in the middle of their defense (and offense, for that matter). The Hawks are better on all sides of the ball and they’ve consistently beaten up on subpar teams like Minnesota. Take the Hawks with confidence.

Mavericks -2.5 (-110), 2 units and
Nuggets +1 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m on both of these sides for the same reason– the Mavericks and Nuggets aren’t getting enough respect yet and we’re here to take advantage. The stock on the Suns is rising and the Spurs will always be a solid team with Gregg Popovich at the helm, but Dallas and Denver are two supremely talented and experienced playoff teams. One of the key angles in sports betting is investing in a team before they get hot, and this feels like that moment. Despite their average records, both squads are among the top 10 teams in point differential and they’re shooting at a higher FG % than both of their opponents tonight. Expect better things for Dallas and Denver, starting now.

Lean Kings (wait for a better number than -4, preferably -2 or -1): WARNING— most of the sites I’ve read analyzing this game are on the Knicks side, so this is a rather contrarian pick. The Knicks left Oracle Arena last night with a big upset win to start off a 4-game road trip. Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing tough, disciplined basketball, so we see why bettors like the NY side tonight. That isn’t the first time they’ve gotten a big upset win. The Kings, on the other hand, don’t give us a lot of reasons to love them. They’re ranked dead last in opponent’s ppg and their ATS records are abysmal. So then why are the Kings favored by 4? Take a look at point differential. Oddly, the Knicks allow the least amount of points in the NBA, but they’re last in scoring offense. That’s a good setup for the Kings, who have no issue scoring points. The Knicks are also riding high after their win at Golden State. This feels like an above-average let-down spot. The Kings are riding a 4 game losing streak and they’re at home. Sneaky play, but I’m on the Sacramento side tonight; how much will depend on the line.

Podcast 6 – 21 – With Kyle Hunter – NFL Conference Playoffs and College Basketball – Jan 22nd to Jan 23rd Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 22, 2021

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast — The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a wonderful show for you today! Kyle Hunter @Huntersportspicks comes back to break down the NFL conference playoffs with some plays and some college basketball games and plays for the weekend! First, Kiev answers a listener question who bet $44 to win $1000 if the super bowl matchup is Tampa Bay vs Buffalo. Chris from Iowa asks how he can maximize or guarantee a profit when the 2 leg hedge involves the Packers at -190 and the Chiefs at -125. The equation is 1.9x + 1.25(1.9x + x) + x = $1044. Then, Kiev talks about some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw and 3 point percentage and overall strength of schedule. Next, Kyle Hunter comes on to discuss some NFL playoffs! Which game does Kyle feel more comfortable betting? Will weather affect these games? Are there any angles or trends to look at? After that, Kyle and Kiev talk about some College Basketball games and plays for this huge weekend in sports. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!

NFL: Tampa Bay vs Green Bay – Buffalo vs Kansas City

NCAA Basketball: Michigan vs Purdue – Baylor vs Oklahoma State and more!

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AFC Championship Game: Bills vs. Chiefs – Picks and Predictions

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 21, 2021

It’ll be the second meeting between the Bills and Chiefs when they face off Sunday, though I dare say there’s much more at stake. The first contest was evenly matched, with each team playing solid defense and consistently scoring. The Chiefs edged the Bills in Week 6 with effective running, ball control, and of course clutch passes by Mahomes. Let’s take a look at each team and how they match up.

The football world collectively gasped last week when we saw a dizzy Patrick Mahomes unable to stand upright after taking a big hit. Fortunately, probably because God just loves football (or he hates Cleveland), a badass run by Chad Henne and a ballsy call by Andy Reid has the Chiefs advancing, and it looks like Mahomes is healthy enough to play, too. I won’t speculate on whether or not that’s a good decision, but if Mahomes is out there, even if he’s not fully healthy, this is obviously a different ballgame.

The Chiefs ran the ball really well in Week 6. They looked a lot like the Chiefs last week, actually, sans Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. It looks like the rookie RB will return Sunday, which should only boost their attack. The Bills have an exceptional linebacking crew, but I don’t think they’re good enough to shut down Kansas City’s stars. Keep an eye on Travis Kelce to make more big plays when Mahomes’ scrambles, something that’s seemingly impossible to stop. I also like Andy Reid to call more aggressive, creative plays to take the onus off his star quarterback.

Buffalo should really be on a 12 game-winning streak, but the “Hail Murray” trims it down to 8. Good enough. The Bills offense has been unstoppable at times, and the chemistry between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs is off the charts. The Chiefs are pretty good against the pass, but they’re susceptible against the run. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Buffalo, who only runs the ball 39% of the time, but I do think Josh Allen can take advantage and make some plays on the ground. The Bills’ QB has racked up 420 rushing yards this season, and in pressure moments he’ll need to make big plays with his legs.

Speaking of pressure, no one is really pointing it out, but this is a BIG moment for Josh Allen. Contrary to what the pundits may say, home field DOES matter in the playoffs. In Buffalo, with those insanely fun and boisterous fans, the Bills are at a clear advantage. Now, Josh Allen and company travel to Arrowhead. I don’t know how many fans were in attendance last week in Kansas City, but it sounded like a full capacity crowd. This is a high-pressure spot that Allen hasn’t seen all year, and it just feels like it’s a little too early for him to get passed it. I believe in Allen as a rising star but remember– Mahomes didn’t get to the Super Bowl right away, either.

Getting a line like this on the defending Super Bowl champs, even with Mahomes not at 100%, is one hell of a deal. Even if it’s not the “right side,” which would be hard to posit, there’s so much inherent value on betting the Chiefs at a number like this. I absolutely love the Bills and I wouldn’t be sad if I lost this bet, but my intellect and betting experience tell me to pick Kansas City. God speed!

Free Pick: Chiefs -3 (-115), 2 units
Free Prop: Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards (-112), 2 units
Lean: Total over 54 (-110)

Note: The public loves the Bills, so there’s a chance that this line goes down a little. This, of course, depends on how “public” your book is. It is unlikely, however, since the Chiefs with Mahomes back at -3 is still a super bargain!

NCAAM Basketball Picks and Predictions: Jan 21, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 21, 2021

Colorado State and Utah State players battling

Penn State wins (+105), 1 unit: Rutgers and Penn State are two very evenly matched teams. They both play solid defense and they’ve both played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball. One stat that pops out: KenPom ranks Penn State as having some of the worst luck in the nation. On paper, this is a BAD Penn State team, but this is a real shot for them to end their 5-game losing streak. I don’t see either team pulling away and since they’re so similar, I like PSU to edge out Rutgers at home.

Colorado State +8 (-110), 2 units: This is the second meeting in 2 days between Colorado State and Utah State. The Rams are a very solid team, but Utah State got the best of them in game 1, beating them handedly 83-64. Take a look at the box score and you’ll see why. Utah State shot 45.6% from the field and a ridiculous 52.6% from beyond the arc. Brock Miller shot 60% himself. The Rams didn’t do as well, shooting 40.4% from the field and only making 1/3 of their three-pointers. This game wasn’t close in the first half but it was in the second, which is how I think it’ll look tonight. Give me the dog in a back-to-back rivalry game.

Portland +22 (-105), 1 unit: This is a weak spot for BYU, the clearly superior team, against a Portland team that should be more motivated to play its best basketball. I’ll take a shot on Portland to cover on a number that feels a little too big.

NBA Picks and Predictions: Jan 21, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 21, 2021

Anthony Davis, fired up after a big shot

Lakers -1 (-115), 1.5 units: The Lakers were on a very busy schedule last week, playing 5 games in 8 days. That stretch ended with an upset loss against Golden State, who came back from a 20 point deficit to get the W. The Bucks are still probably the best team in the East, but like a lot of teams they don’t match up well against LAL. Anthony Davis called his team out after their loss to the Warriors, which I love, and I think Lebron and Davis and the whole Lakers’ squad plays with a lot of fire tonight, edging the Bucks late.

Pelicans/Jazz under 217.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Pelicans are a new team. Instead of wild fast breaks and transition three-point shots, they’re committed to playing a methodical pace and stout defense. The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing only 105 ppg, #3 in the NBA. This should be a hard-fought battle in the trenches (Gobert vs. Zion, oh my) that totals just over 200 points. Look at an in-game under bet if these two teams score a lot early.

NFC Championship Game: Packers vs. Bucs – Picks and Predictions

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 21, 2021

The last meeting between the Packers and Bucs came in Week 6 of the regular season, and it wasn’t much of a contest. The Packers scored the first 10 points and then never scored again, watching helplessly as Tampa Bay scored 28 straight in the 2nd quarter and ended up winning 38-10. Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the year, throwing for a 45% completion percentage, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. To make matters worse, the Packers allowed 5 sacks, 20% of what they allowed all year against their star QB (20). That’s a wild stat!

But this isn’t Week 6, the Packers are at Lambeau with perhaps the best home-field advantage in the NFL, and their offense is absolutely humming. Last week is a great example of that. Sure, Aaron Donald was limited, but the Packers offensive line had their way with the Rams’ defensive front. They easily could’ve scored 40+. That’s been the story of the Packers all year– go up early, play ball control with the run game, and make plays to stay ahead. They did that to perfection once again.

Tampa Bay has the league’s best running defense (and a legit #2 rank in DVOA), but I trust that Matt LaFleur can scheme his way through that on Sunday. The Rams ran the ball well with a like-minded coach.

I think the more significant game-script to watch for is when Tampa Bay has the ball. Ronald Jones II was a problem in Week 6, running for 113 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and 2 TDs. And that was before Tampa had Leonard Fournette. Jones II and Fournette both looked very healthy last week, running for 63 and 62 yards and splitting carries evenly (Fournette had 17, Jones II had 13). Green Bay ranks #3 in overall DVOA, but it’s hokey. They haven’t faced great offenses and they’ve played ahead in virtually every game. If Tampa Bay can have another good showing on the ground, it’ll open things up for Brady and his talented receivers. That’s a dangerous combination.

In the end, this game will come down to, you guessed it, the performance of two star quarterbacks. Aaron is having an extraordinary year, but Brady isn’t that far behind (4,633 yards, 40 TDs, 12 INTs). There’s so many competing angles for this game, but I just can’t see Aaron Rodgers blowing a chance to get to the big dance, in front of his rowdy fans, in arguably his greatest pro season yet. I think that’s even more true since he had his worst performance (and ONLY bad performance of the year) against the Bucs.

We’ll steer clear of the total since these teams are so evenly matched. What I will do, however, is middle this bet in an effort to win on both ends. Some of the sharper minds in the industry like the Tampa Bay side, but I think Green Bay gets the W.

Free Pick: Packers win (-175), 3 units
Free Pick: Bucs +3.5 (-120), 2 units

Key Trend: Teams in the conference championship with lower red zone success are 7-14 ATS, or 33%. The Packers are #1, Bucs are #7, favoring the Pack. Credit- Ralph Michaels

NBA Free Picks: January 20, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 20, 2021

A picture of Joel Embiid posting up and ready to go

Wednesday night marks the return of Joel Embiid and that’s a big deal for the Sixers. The big guy leads his team in points and rebounds and makes a huge difference on defense. The Celtics were humbled on Sunday after taking a thrashing against the Knicks, and it looks like Jason Taytum has to sit out another game. This is a great spot for the Sixers, at home, against a team that’s gotten the best of them in recent history. I think Philadelphia will take advantage. Free Pick: 76ers -5 (-110), 1.5 units

This bet is all about the surging Nets. The addition of James Harden has Brooklyn on fire and tonight they’ll get the third leg of the big three back in Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 3rd in the NBA in points per game and I imagine they’ll finish in first. Guess where the Cavs are? Dead last. Give me the Nets in a blowout. Free Pick: Nets -10 (-110), 2 units

Sacramento can’t stop anyone and it’s a problem. Their defense ranks at the very bottom of the association, allowing over 123 ppg. The good news is they can keep up with any team, averaging over 114 ppg (9th in the NBA). The Clippers’ stars had their way with Sacramento in their first matchup and I don’t see any reason why that doesn’t continue tonight. Give me the over in a game that should offer multiple 60 point quarters. Free Pick: Kings/Clippers over 230 (-110), 2 units

Podcast 5 – 21 – With Andy Molitor from The Deep Dive – NFL Conference Playoff Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 20, 2021

We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @betsperts and The Deep Dive podcast comes in to break down some NFL conference playoff weekend fun! First, Kiev recaps the last weekend’s NFL games. Next, Andy comes on and the guys break down some of the games that happened last week. Then, the guys get right into the NFL Conference playoffs with some leans and some plays for your weekend fun.

NFL: Buffalo vs Kansas City – Tampa Bay vs Green Bay and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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UFC on ESPN 20: Chiesa vs. Magny – Picks and Predictions

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 19, 2021

Neil Magny facving off with Michael Chiesa

It’s FIGHT WEEK and I have four value picks for UFC on ESPN 20 from Fight Island. Prelims start on Wednesday at 9:00am EST and the Main Card starts at Noon EST, so set your alarms!

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+265) vs. Lerone Murphy (-350): Lerone Murphy is the heavy favorite for a reason- the young gun is one of UFC’s bright prospects and he has yet to lose a professional bout. The only issue: his opponent is one of those war-torn, wily vets. Douglas has been in 29 professional fights and he’s only been knocked out once. We’ve seen this story before. I’ll take a shot at this fight going the distance for a little plus money. Free Pick: Fight goes all 3 rounds, +125

Tyson Nam (-150) vs. Matt Schnell (+120): Tyson Nam is a dangerous power puncher who ended his last 2 fights with first and second round TKOs. Schnell is the other extreme- he’s a busy jabber and fantastic grappler. He’s also absolutely crazy to watch. He loves to scrap and fight at close range, which I think will end this fight early (with either knockout fireworks or a submission). Free Pick: No, fight does not go 2 full rounds, -115

Viviane Araujo (-325) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+250): You never know what to expect from ol’ Roxanne. The “happy warrior” is as feisty as they come, even though she’s perpetually underrated. All she does is get upset wins or go the distance with some of the best female fighters. Viviane Araujo is the obvious favorite with a 9-2 professional record, but it’s more about her potential than what she’s actually accomplished thus far. She just hasn’t faced anyone of real merit. Don’t bet too much, but it might be worth a sprinkle on that feisty underdog. Free pick: Roxanne Modafferi wins by decision, +380

Michael Chiesa (+120) vs. Neil Magny (-150): Both of these fighters are in their primes and on 3-fight win streaks in what should be an evenly matched, entertaining battle. Neil Magny is ready to explode and wants more respect among his fans and peers. While his last 3 fights have gone the distance, he seems poised to make a statement. Michael Chiesa is a dangerous submission artist (the man loves a rear-naked choke) and could end Magny’s night early if the favorite isn’t careful. We get why the total favors a five-round fight but we see inherent value in the under. Free Pick: No, fight does not go the distance, +130. Lean: Neil Magny wins.