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I use 3 models that project game outcomes. It can be very helpful when all models agree on an outcome.
Unanimous Model is 4-0 on College Football Totals this season
Unanimous Model is 7-3 ATS College Football this season
Unanimous Model is 5-1 ATS in NFL this season
I provide these to my clients and I am providing the College Football Projections here today for OddsBreakers Members Cashman’s College Football Analytic Projections
Enjoy,
Alan
Please watch Kyle Hunter and Kiev O’Neil discuss a few huge games! Subscriber to our Youtube channel!
LA Rams vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 47
Ok, this Bills team is 1-1 ATS but is better than people think. Josh Allen ranks 4th in QBR and the Bills are taking better chances down field. They have some wonderful receivers there and did not catch the injury bug last week. The Rams really can’t say the same when they lost their rookie running back Cam Akers last week to a rib injury and Malcomb brown hurt his finger. Not good for a runningback for holding the ball because he will be taped up after minor surgery. The Rams also lost starting guard Joe Notebloom. A position of weakness for them. He might play but will be banged up and because of this, I see the Bills D getting to Jared Goff quickly unlike what the Cowboys and Eagles could do. I also think that the Covid restriction of the Rams being able to stay on the east coast affects this game as a bad travel spot. It threw off their plans per say and even if they expected this, they still have to travel. Gonna take the Bills -2 here to give the Rams their first L.
Buffalo -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
Houston vs Pittsburgh -4.5 O/U 45
Houston is starting out 0-2 and 0-2 ATS. How bad is this team is the question that needs to be asked? Lets look at the facts. They were a playoff team last year. That’s good. They have a stud QB. That’s good. They traded their other best player away for garbage. That’s bad. They have one of the worst coaches in NFL football. That is also bad. Here is the kicker. Who did they play their first 2 weeks of football? THE 2 BEST TEAMS IN THE NATION! The Texans are a desparate team right now but we have to at least put things in the perspective of whom they faced. They actually are middle of the road in yards per play ranking 16th at 5.6 and opponent yards per play ranking 19th at 5.9. I actually would argue that that’s not that bad considering their opponents. The Steelers on the other hand played a bad Giants team and a very injured and quarterbackless Broncos team and only average 5.7 yards per play on offense but a great 4.5 on defense. I want to see what the Steeler’s defense can do against a Deshawn Watson led offense myself. One thing that does stick out to me is that the Steelers aren’t the greatest favorite as of late. Since November 18, 2018 they are 2-10 as a favorite. The Steelers beat the Broncos by 5, but I don’t think that they beat the Texans by that much. I’ll take the desperate team with JJ Watt and DeShawn Watson.
Houston +4.5 – 1.5 star premium shared play
Refuse To Lose Teaser – Indianapolis to -5 and NY Giants to +10 – 2 star premium shared – Indi is passing 3 key numbers of 10, 7 and 6. NY Giants are at home and the 49ers are starting Mullens. Low total of 41 is teaser material.
Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay – NFL Colts -529, Browns-328, NCAA Miami -369, Baylor -1050, Liberty -241, Virgia Tech -240 – This ML Parlay pays 3.25 – 1
Florida State vs Miami -11 O/U 54
Miami -11.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Louisville vs Pittsburgh -3 O/U 55.5 – Louisville doesn’t play all that fast. Last year only 70 plays per game. They had lots of turnovers last week so I see them being mroe careful with the ball. Pitts got a solid D and scoring only 21 vs Syracuse isn’t a good look for the offense. Pittsburgh is a team that will try and control the possessions of the football by running the ball. They ranked 19th last year in rushing plays per game. I think the under has value here.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh under 55.5 – 1.5 star premium play
As of Wednesday afternoon
Sharp Money On:
Jaguars PK to -3 hosting the Dolphins – 68% tickets and 89% of the money.
Titans PK to -2.5 at the Vikings – 78% tickets and 99% of the money. Dual Action
Bears +3.5 at the Falcons – 30% tickets and 53% of the money.
Giants +6.5 to +4 hosting the 49ers – 37% tickets and 91% of the money. WOW
Patriots -5.5 hosting the Raiders – 51% tickets and 74% of the money.
Eagles -5.5 hosting the Bengals – 46% of the tickets and 97% of the money. Back Door Burrow.
Bills -2 hosting the Rams – 36% tickets and 79% of the money.
Panthers +6.5 at the Chargers – 40% tickets and 78% of the money.
Cowboys +5.5 to +4.5 at the Seahawks – 27% tickets and 90% of the money.
Broncos +6.5 hosting the Bucs – 15% tickets and 38% of the money.
Saints -3 hosting the Packers – 24% tickets and 92% of the money.
Ravens -2.5 to -3.5 hosting the Chiefs – 40% tickets and 88% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Dolphins vs Jaguars over 44 to 48 – Dual Action 76% and 98%
Bears vs Falcons under 47.5 – 40% tickets and 99% of the money.
49ers vs the Giants over 40.5 to 42 – 48% tickets and 99% of the money.
Raiders vs the Patriots under 48 – 28% tickets and 99% of the money.
Cowboys vs the Seahawks over 55.5 – 74% of the tickets and 95% of the money.
Bucs vs Broncos under 44.5 to 43.5 – 47% tickets and 99% of the money
As of Wednesday Afternoon
Sharp Money On:
UAB at -4.5 to -6.5 at South Alabama – 66% tickets and 95% of the money.
Pittsburgh at -2.5 hosting Louisville – 40% tickets and 74% of the money.
Oklahoma -27.5 hosting Kansas State – 61% tickets and 98% of the money.
Syracuse +7.5 hosting Georgia Tech – 55% tickets and 95% of the money.
Ole Miss +14.5 hosting Florida – 64% tickets and 99% of the money.
Iowa State -2.5 at TCU – 59% tickets and 93% of the money.
LSU -16.5 hosting Mississippi State – 54% tickets and 74% of the money.
Louisiana Monroe -8 to -9.5 hosting UTEP – 73% tickets and 99% of the money.
Arkansas +26.5 hosting Georgia – 36% tickets and 98% of the money.
FAU -3 hosting South Florida – 43% tickets and 74% of the money.
Missouri +28 hosting Alabama – 5% tickets and 32% of the money.
Florida State +11.5 at Miami – 41% tickets and 97% of the money. I disagree
NC State +9 to +7 at Virginia Tech – 53% tickets and 99% of the money. I disagree
Troy +15.5 to +14 at BYU – 41% tickets and 97% of the money.
Tennessee -3 to -3.5 at South Carolina – Dual action 71% and 97% money.
NC State +9 to +6.5 at Virginia Tech – 53% tickets and 99% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Under 54.5 – 26% tickets and 67% of the money.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State under 55 to 51.5 – 55% tickets and 83% of the money.
UTEP vs UL Monroe under 49.5 to 48.5 – 57% tickets and 90% of the money.
Georgia vs Arkansas under 52.5 – 63% tickets and 94% of the money.
Tennessee vs South Carolina under 48 to 43.5 – 48% tickets and 99% of the money.
Misleading Scores:
Chargers out-gained the Chiefs 479 to 414 yet lost 23 to 20 in OT. 1-0 turnover ratio is all
Cowboys out-gained the Falcons 570 to 380 but only won by 1 point. 3-0 turnover ratio hurt
Jaguars outgained the Titans 480-354 and lost by 3. 2-0 turnover ratio hurts
Panthers out-gained the Buccaneers 427 to 339 but lots of garbage yards. 2-0 turnover ratio hurt. No power ratings adjustments.
Patriots out-gained the Seahawks 464 to 429 and lost by 5. That’s football but goes to show you that they could have won this game.
Motivational Spots:
Let down Spots:
Seahawks after beating the pats felt like revenge to me.
Get up Spots:
Texans at the Steelers are disparate for a W
Falcons hosting the Bears are desperate for a W
Bengals and Eagles will put forth Big efforts to try and get the first win
Dolphins looking to upset Jacksonville
Look Ahead Spots:
Patriots could be looking past the Raiders to the Chiefs
We have a great show for you today! Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV comes on to break down some college football games! First, Kiev gets into some NFL and shares a few of his free plays along with a refuse to lose teaser and a fun money parlay. Then, Ralph comes on to discuss some interesting trends for this year’s college season. Who is his largest power ratings adjustments? What are some of the things that we have learned? Next, Kiev and Ralph get into some big games and give out a few leans and some plays. Following that, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL, and finally, a free UFC 253 play!
NFL: LA Rams vs Buffalo – Houston vs Pittsburgh and more!
College Football: Kentucky vs Auburn – Florida State vs Miami and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing
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Let down spots:
None
Get up spots:
Florida State needs to get up at Miami after that horrid loss to Georgia Tech
Wake Forest hosting Notre Dame needs to protect being 0-3
Oklahoma in a revenge spot hosting Kansas State
Iowa State at TCU needs something after losing 2 week ago to Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe needs someone to beat up on hosting UTEP
Look Ahead Spots: Too early to be too serious about this
Florida could be looking past Ole Miss to South Carolina
Auburn could be looking past Kentucky to Georgia
Georgia could be looking past Arkansas to Auburn
Boston College vs Duke – Duke was only outgained by 23 yards but BC had a 5-1 turnover ratio. Poor Redzone efficiency for Duke.
Tulsa vs OKlahoma State – Tulsa outgained Ok State by 1 yards 278-277 yet lost by 9. They also had a 1-2 turnover ratio. Spencer Sanders for the Pokes did get injured tho.
Miami vs Louisville – Louisville outgained Miami 516 to 485 yards but a 3-0 turnover ratio and Miami’s D was the factors. Miami is the better team.
Texas State vs Louisiana Monroe – ULM outgained Texas State 444-398 but a 2-1 turnover ratio hurt and some of those yards were garbage time. No adjustment for both teams.
