We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 13. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 14! Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
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Arizona is on the second road game here after being manhandled by a young Washington Husky’s team. This play for me is all about perception. People are thinking about how Arizona almost beat USC and that supposedly is supposed to make them good. Looking at the metrics the last few games, Arizona averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and they give up 6.64. That is a -1.14 after 2 games. Their QB play has been pretty good but they can not run the ball well at all. UCLA’s 1-2 record doesn’t really paint the whole picture. At Colorado they turned the ball over a lot and still almost won the game, and at Oregon last week they out-gained the Ducks by 40 yards and barely lost the game. When they played a home game, they destroyed Cal by 24 points. UCLA averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and only gives up 5.15 on defense. That is a +.95 and putting it with Arizona, it is a +2.1 net yard per play advantage. UCLA’s quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn’t get to play for covid protocol last week but I think he is back this weekend vs the Cats. Take UCLA and they should win in a blow out.
UCLA -8.5 – 3 star premium shared play
Boston College -1.5 O/U 55.5
Louisville is finally coming off of a win against a terrible Syracuse team. Well as Chris Farley would say, well La di fricking da! The Cardinal would be a mediocre team if they wouln’t turn the ball over so much. The Cardinal actually has a decent +.8 yards per play but they have a league worst -12 turnover margin. That is almost 2 turnover per game in the negative. Boston College on the other hand has a better record than Louisville with 5 wins and 4 losses but a worse yards per play at -.6 The thing that sticks out the most for me here is strength of schedule. Boston college has faced 3 top 25 teams in Clemson, Notre Dame and North Carolina. Louisville has only faced 2 top 25 teams in Notre Dame and Miami early this year and their best win is against Florida State believe it or not. Boston College is now well rested and coming off the bye while Louisville might be a little full of themselves after beating a horrible Syracuse team. Gonna take the Eagles here to win with the short spread.
Boston College -1.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Pittsburgh vs Clemson -24 O/U 54.5
Well we all know that Dabo Sweeny isn’t getting any style points this week accusing Florida State of purposely avoiding them after their Covid issues. I think its obvious that Dabo is a bit bitter about having to bench Trevor Lawrence when he really wasn’t showing sickness the last few games. Dabo needs to understand that even though he doesn’t agree with the rules, all teams have to follow it this year until better decisions are made. I personally do not care how much of a baby Dabo is this week. I only care about the fact that Clemson think’s that they need style points now with their loss to Notre Dame and Pitt is the next victim. Now Pitt is getting a little bit of respect after beating Virginia Tech last week by double digits but what I saw was a Hokies team that has lost motivation after that Liberty loss. Pittsburgh is just a middle of the road ACC team averaging just +.6 yards per play and when they step up in class here they will once again be in some serious trouble like they showed against Notre Dame. Clemson is the most complete team in all of college football. Clemson’s average margin of victory is 26 points and that is counting the 2 bad games that they had without Trevor. My power ratings have Clemson winning by about 24 but I think it will be an embarrassment to Dabo after all that shit that he talked this week to not blow this team out. Trevor is also fighting for Heisman. Take Clem and don’t sweat it.
6 pt – Lions up to +9 with the Washington Dallas under to 52 – 2 star premium shared – Hope everyone enjoys thanksgiving!
San Francisco vs LA Rams -7 O/U 45.5
Rams just had a huge win vs Tampa and I definitely give them an upgrade for that but San Francisco already beat this team with Kittle and Jimmy G but unfortunately they will be relying on their backup quarterback Nick Mullens and Backup Tight End Jordan Reed. I think with the shortened week, the Rams will have more of a defensive approach than offensive. The only team to really shut down this Rams offense was the 49ers D holding them to 16 points on October 18th. The 49ers get Raheem Mostert back this week but they also have 2 offensive lineman now out for Covid. I think with the improved Rams defense and the lack of playmakers on the 49ers this game will be going under the total. I also think that the Rams have a very good shot at holding the Niners to very few points.
San Francisco vs LA Rams under 45.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Tennessee vs Indianapolis -3.5 O/U 51 –
We have a rivalry game here and a little road revenge angle for Tennessee. I know that Indianapolis certainly has the better defense here but Tennessee I think edges Indi in offense and sometimes Frank Reich can get a little pass happy with Phillip Rivers. Tennessee only has a net .2 yards per play compared to Indi’s net .6, but the Titans have had a harder schedule than the Colts and need this victory very badly to even things out. I know the Titans lost Jaylen Brown to injuries. He is a tough middle linebacker who played 97% of their snaps but the silver lining is that the Titans have some depth at the position and Will Compton played well getting 6 tackles after Brown went out. I like the angle of playing the dog on the second conference game and I think this is a 3 point game at the most.
Tennessee +3.5 – 2 star premium shared play and sprinkle
Refuse to Lose 6 PT Teaser is 6-5: We are going to tease Buffalo to +.5 and the Rams to -1. 49ers just to injured here and now they have Covid Issues. The Chargers are just very incompetent.
Bow to the gambling gods Parlay is 2-7: NCAA:Indiana -380, Toledo -335, Appalachian State -565, Oklahoma State -384, Boston College -1-108, NFL: Los Angeles Rams -315 – Pays 5-1.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you listeners! Thank you for being there for us! We have a show of plenty of picks for you today! Kiev goes solo to cover college games with more leans and plays. First, Kiev talks about how great Thanksgiving is as a Holiday. Next, Kiev goes through almost the whole slate of college football with some plays. Then, we get into the NFL with a Thanksgiving day teaser and week 12 plays. Next, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 6-5 as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out at 5-1 this week. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Houston vs Detroit – San Francisco vs LA Rams and more!
NCAA: Arizona vs UCLA – Louisville vs Boston College – Penn State vs Michigan and more!
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