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NFL week 4 and College Football week 5
College Football Week 5 Free Plays – Sports Betting
Memphis vs SMU +2.5 O/U 74.5
– Memphis is a good amount better than SMU in my opinion and that was obvious last year as well. Both teams return their quarterbacks this year but Memphis returns more defense at 77% returning production to SMU’s 53% production. The Tigers only have 1 game on their belt vs Arkansas State where they pretty much handled them easily. SMU has played 3 games but those games were against some very easy opponents in North Texas, Texas State early and an FCS team in Stephen F Austin. Last year, the Mustang’s had only a .38 positive net yards per play while Memphis had a positive 1.48. I don’t think this game is close and I think Memphis blows this team out.
Memphis -1.5 -2 star premium shared play
TCU vs Texas -13 O/U 63
– Well well well. Texas is a huge double digit home favorite here vs a TCU team who only lost to Iowa State last week by 3 points. TCU played 2 quarterback’s last week but Max Duggan proved to be the better option with 3 Tds and 1 interception. Duggan was held out the first half due to a heart condition and the coaches wanted to ease him back into the year. Well, he’s back. TCU might have beaten Iowa State had he played the whole game. Texas on the other hand proved that they still don’t have a great defense allowing 56 points to Texas Tech, going to overtime and almost blowing this game. Tech by the way played poorly against an FCS team the week before. It’s hard to get a great Idea on what Texas really is as of yet this year with such a small sample size but one thing for sure is that they did give up more passing yards vs Tech than they had passing themselves. Texas is a team that can’t help but throw the ball even though it appears that TCU’s weakness is against the run. TCU did struggle to run the ball last week but they will get their stud RB back in Zach Evans this week who was out due to Covid protocol. My power rating number on this game is Texas -9 but factor in the overtime last week and of course factor in the monster look ahead spot that they have to Oklahoma next week, you have to bring that number down to around -6.5. I am taking the TCU dog here and I like it also on the money line.
TCU +13 – 2 star premium shared play and sprinkle
East Carolina vs Georgia State -1.5 O/U 69
– East Carolina is coming off of a loss to UCF but one that they were at least able to put up 28 points. They return 87% of their offense this year which is a good thing because they averaged 5.78 yards per play and 27 points per game in a tough conference. Their defense was their bad spot. Georgia State was able to score against Louisiana which shocked a lot of people after Louisiana held Iowa State to only 14 points. Georgia State gave up 36 points per game last year with 6 of those starters returning. They also ranked 124th giving up over 499 yards per game. Both of these teams play fast. Georgia State in 2019 ranked 12th in plays per game at 78 and East Carolina ranked 22nd at 75. I don’t see how this game stays under the total of 69 and I am going over.
East Carolina vs Georgia State over 69 – 3 star premium shared
NFL Week 4 Sharp Money
As of Wednesday Afternoon
Sharp Money On:
Jets +2.5 to PK hosting the Broncos – 39% tickets and 89% of the money.
Chargers +7.5 to +7 at Tampa Bay – 37% tickets and 79% of the money.
Panthers +3.5 to +3 hosting the Cardinals – 29% tickets and 73% of the money.
Jaguars +3 at the Bengals – 56% tickets and 99% of the money.
Patriots +7 at the Chiefs – 42% of the tickets and 94% of the money.
49ers -6 to -7 hosting the Eagles – 69% of the tickets and 99% of the money.
Packers -6 to -7.5 hosting the Falcons – 61% of the tickets and 97% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Broncos vs Jets under 42 to 39.5 – 62% tickets and 97% of the money.
Colts vs Bears under 45 to 43.5 – 39% tickets and 91% of the money.
Chargers vs Buccaneers under 45.5 to 43.5 – 58% of the tickets and 95% of the money.
Vikings vs Texans under 54 – 26% tickets and 83% of the money.
College Football Week 5 Sharp Money
As of Wednesday Afternoon
Sharp Money On:
BYU from 21.5 to 23.5 hosting LA Tech – 57% tickets and 75% of the money.
South Carolina +19 at Florida – 53% tickets and 85% of the money.
NC State +14 at Pitt – 33% tickets and 85% of the money.
SMU +2.5 hosting Memphis – 33% tickets and 88% of the money. I’ll be your huckelberry.
South Florida +23 at Cincinnati – 28% tickets and 48% of the money.
Kansas State -2 hosting Texas Tech – 60% tickets and 93% of the money.
Kansas +22.5 hosting oklahoma State – 19% of the tickets and 90% of the money. Ugly.
Duke +10.5 hosting Va Tech – 26% tickets and 97% of the money. I agree here.
Western Kentucky -7 at MTSU – 59% of the tickets and 83% of the money.
Navy -1 to -7 at Airforce – 60% of the tickets and 89% of the money. There was some buyback on this one too.
Tulsa +22.5 at UCF – 58% of the tickets and 99% of the money.
Southern Miss +1.5 at North Texas – 38% of the tickets and 60% of the money.
Vanderbilt +20.5 hosting LSU – 39% of the tickets and 99% of the money.
Auburn +7 at Georgia – 61% of the tickets and 82% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
LA Tech vs BYU over 54.5 to 59.5 – Dual action 81% tickets and 97% of the money.
TCU vs Texas Over 60 to 62.5 – Dual action 81% tickets and 99% of the money.
NC State vs Pittsburg under 48.5 to 47.5 – 53% tickets and 99% of the money.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State under 64.5 – 34% tickets and 99% of the money.
Texas A&M vs Alabama under 53.5 to 51.5 – 32% tickets and 68% of the money.
Virginia vs Clemson over 54 to 55.5 – 50% tickets and 97% of the money.
Podcast 55 – 20 – College Football Week 5 With Alan Cashman & NFL Week 4 With Bryan Leonard – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting
We have a fully loaded show for you today! Alan Cashman @TheCashmanWins and Bryan Leonard @Bleonardsports from wagertalk.com come on to break down a huge weekend of football! First, Kiev get into some news in the sportsbook world with Caesars group and William Hill. Next, Kiev while avoiding sides, talks about why you will never see a non-partisan candidate win a large election in the United States. Then, Alan Cashman comes on to discuss some huge games for College Football week 5. Next, Bryan Leonard comes on to discuss a handful of NFL games and gives out some free plays. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser and his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS parlay that hit last week at 3.25-1. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Patriots vs Kansas City – Buffalo vs Las Vegas and more!
College Football: Auburn vs Georgia – Memphis vs SMU – Texas vs TCU and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing
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NFL Week 3 Misleading Finals Scores & Motivational Spots
Misleading Scores:
Jaguars out-gained the Dolphins 318 to 294 yet lost 31-13. Some garbage yards there.
LA Rams outgained the Bills 478 to 375 yet lost by 3. Poor officiating took it from the Rams in a second half push.
Washington out-gained the Browns 309 to 300 yards but a 5-0 turnover ration killed them.
LA Chargers outgained the Panthers 436 to 302 but lost by 5 – a 4-0 turnover ratio hurt.
The Cardinals out-gained the Lions 377 to 322 yet lost by 3. A 3-0 turnover ratio for mainly Kyler Murray.
The Cowboys out-gained the Seahawks 522 to 412 yet lost 38-31 – A Dak Prescott 3-1 turnover ratio as usual. Dak isn’t worth 20M much less 40M.
Let Down Spots:
Packers could let down to the Falcons after beating the Saints.
Panthers got that first W and could let down vs the Cardinals.
Lions got that first win at the Cardinals as a dog.
Get up spots:
Saints at the Lions after losing 2 in a row.
Any team without a win could be dangerous.
Look ahead spots:
none
College Football Week 5 Motivational Spots
Lots of bye weeks hurt the spots this year in general. Just thought I’d throw that out there but we still found some.
Let Down Spots:
Kansas State hosting Texas Tech after beating Oklahoma.
Mississippi State hosting Arkansas after beating LSU.
Texas at TCU went to Overtime vs Texas Tech.
Get Up Spots:
Duke hosting Virginia Tech has to wake up.
Kentucky hosting Ole Miss after that horrible second half vs Auburn.
Oklahoma at Iowa State has to be motivated here.
LSU at Vanderbilt has to fix some things.
Southern Miss at North Texas – Blindly bet the over here and don’t watch the game.
Look Ahead Spots:
Clemson looking past Virginia to Miami is a HUGE one.
UNC looking past Boston College to Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech looking past Duke to North Carolina.
Texas looking past TCU to Oklahoma is very possible.
Tennessee looking past Missouri to Georgia.
College Football Week 4 Misleading Final Scores
Middle Tennessee State vs UTSA – MTSU out-gained UTSA 563 to 391 yet lost by 2 – A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt. Some of that garbage time.
Georgia Tech vs Syracuse – Georgia Tech outgained Syracuse 453 to 357 yet lost by 17 – a 5-1 turnover ratio killed them.
Kansas State vs Oklahoma – Oklahoma out-gained Kansas State 517 to 400 yards and a 4-0 turnover ratio did them in. Still tho. Number was too high last week.
Kentucky vs Auburn – Kentucky Out-gained Auburn 384 to 324. A 3-0 turnover ratio and a fake punt did them in.
Florida vs Ole Miss – Ole Miss out-gained Florida 446 to 443 but lots of those yards were garbage. No adjustment.
FIU vs Liberty – Liberty out-gained FIU 527 yards to 304 yet only won by 2 points. No turnover margin. Special teams played a roll in that.
Iowa State vs TCU – TCU out-gained Iowa State 499 to 423 yet lost by 3 at home. 2-1 turnover ratio hurt.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State – West Virginia out-gained the Pokes 353 to 342 yet lost by 14 points. Unnecessary TD at the end ruined my middle. (tear)
Texas State vs Boston College – Texas State out-gained BC 357 – 297 yet lost by 3 at the end. The officials fixed the game in the end for Boston College for the ACC.
Kansas vs Baylor – Baylor only out-gained Kansas 352 to 328 yet won 47-14. No turnovers.
Fantasy Football Week 4
Key Injuries:
Tarik Cohen RB – ACL tear and out for the season.
Dallas Goedert TE – Ankle injury and is week to week.
Chris Carson RB – Knee sprain and is week to week.
Jordan Reed TE – Went out with an ankle injury. Week to week.
Russell Gage WR – Head injury.
Dionte Johnson WR – Concussion.
DeShawn Jackson WR – Hammy and Ankle week to week.
Michael Pittman WR – Ankle Injury – He is out until 3 to 4 weeks.
Chris Godwin WR – Hammy.
John brown WR – Knee banged up.
Brian Edwards WR – Ankle injury.
Waiver Wire:
Carlos Hyde RB – For the Chris Carson injury.
Ryan Nall RB – for Cohen injury.
Zach Pascal WR – For the Pittman.
Rex Burkhead RB – got some TDs this week. James White will take some of that back.
Cedrick Wilson WR – Somehow he got a lot of targets in 7 and 2 TDs. Speculative.
Nick Foles QB – Lots of upside for this QB.
Nick Mullens QB – I think he might be better than Jimmy G.
Jimmy Graham TE – 2 Touchdowns and now a better QB.
Brandon Aiyuk WR – At least until Deebo Samuel comes back but maybe longer.
Hunter Renfrow WR – With the Edwards injury
Greg Ward WR – Lots of targets at 11. He also got in the endzone. Will it be the same when Raegar and Jeffrey comes back?
Alshawn Jeffrey WR – Upside is big.
Justin Jefferson WR – Minnesota Vikings had a great game.
Week 4 Non-starters trending up:
Brandon Aiyuk WR vs a bad Eagles defense.
Carlos Hyde RB – Good matchup vs the Dolphins D if Carson isn’t 100% and I doubt he is.
James Robinson RB – Great matchup against the Bengals.
David Johnson RB – vs that horrible Vikings D.
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – vs Seattle’s bad D.
Devonte Parker WR – vs Seattle’s bad D.
Odell Beckham WR – vs the Cowboys bad D.
Austin Hooper TE – vs the Cowboys bad D.
TJ Hockenson TE – vs the Saints who give up the 4th most points to tight ends.
Allen Lazard WR – If Adams is still out.
Week 4 Busts:
Derek Henry RB – vs the Steelers run D Ouch.
Miles Gaskin RB – vs Seattle’s run D.
Austin Eckler RB – vs Tampa’s run D.
The Redskins whole team vs the Ravens D.
Carson Wentz QB – vs the 49ers who somehow keep rolling.
Nasty Sleeper: James Robinson vs the Bengals bad D
Podcast 54 – 20 – NFL Week 3 and NCAA Week 4 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 3 – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in football. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Next, we get into College Football misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 5. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out a free NFL play for week 4! Then, D-Nasty comes back on to discuss fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
