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NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Key Injuries:

DJ Moore WR – Has Covid.

Darrell Henderson RB – Banged up knee.

Curtis Samuel WR – Covid

Antonio Gibson RB – Toe injury.

Frank Gore RB – Concussion

CMC Might be back this week!

Waiver Wire:

Cam Akers RB only owned in 53% of leagues had most of the work and did well.  Must own.

Robbie Anderson WR – For Carolina Covid situations

Jalen Hurts QB – Might start over Wentz

Ty Johnson RB – With Frank Gore banged up he banged in 2 TDs

Richard Higgens WR – Had a monster day with 9 Targets 95 yards and a TD

Alfred Morris RB – Giants used him a lot last week and he had a TD.

Will Dissly TE – Good matchup this week.

Chad Hanson WR – When cooks went out he went and got 100 yards

Cole Kmet TE – Had 7 targets and a TD for the Bears.

James O’Shaughnessy – TE had 6 targets.

Logan Thomas TE – 90 yards

Dawson Knox TE – touchdown this week.  Last Week as well.

Gerald Everette TE – Had 7 targets for the Rams and could be a good pickup.

Non-starters trending up for Week 14:

TY Hilton WR – vs the Raiders D.  Had 11 Targets last week.

Giovani Bernard RB – vs Dallas’s poor defense.

David Montgomery RB – vs Houston’s run D.  Maybe Nagy will be fired by then.

Ezekiel Elliot RB – vs that bad Bengals D.

Breshard Perriman WR – vs Seattle’s Pass D.

Will Dissley TE – Jets are the worst team vs Tight ends.

Mark Andrews TE – Browns are the second worst against Tight ends.

Mike Williams WR – has a good matchup vs the Falcons Pass D.

James O’Shaughnessy TE – Good matchup vs the Titans.

Chris Godwin WR – vs Minnesota’s bad pass D.

Tyler Boyd WR – Even though Allen or Finley is throwing for the Bengals most likely, Dallas’s D is bad.

Justin Jefferson WR – vs Tampa’s bad Pass D.

Busts:

Devon Singletary RB – vs Pittsburgh’s top run D.

Damien Harris RB – vs Rams Run D.

Antonio Gibson RB – vs the Niners run D.

Miles Sanders RB – vs the Saints Run D.

Michael Thomas WR – vs a desperate Philly D.

Devontae Booker/Josh Jacobs RBs vs Indianapolis’s Run D.

Cam Newton QB – vs the Rams

Nasty Sleeper:

TY Hilton – Colts will be wanting to put up some points vs the Raiders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 74 – 20 – NFL Week 13 and NCAA Week 14 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 14 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Podcast Clean
The OddsBreakers Sports

We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 14.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 15!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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Better Odds Sports Betting 12/4/20

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Click here to watch and subscribe!

 

We discuss Gonzaga vs Baylor for hoops!   College Football – BYU Coastal Carolina and Texas A&M vs Auburn.   NFL – LA Rams vs Arizona and Buffalo vs San Francisco!

NFL Week 13 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

New England vs LA Chargers PK O/U 46 – 

The Patriots some how keep skating by.  This Cam Newton led team is a -.4 yards per play and have had some lucky bounces.  The Patriots are riddled with Injuries including their best WR Edelman, their best O-lineman in Wynn, and a key runningback in Burkhead.  The Chargers had some tough injuries but they are getting heathier with Eckler now being back and Bosa now healthy.   The Patriots are weak against through the air allowing 8 yards per pass while the Chargers seem to toss the Rock pretty well.  I think this is a spot where Anthony Lynn will finally get a decent win at home.

LA Chargers -1 – 1.5 star premium shared play

Indianapolis vs Houston +3 O/U 51 – 

This is a perception play.  The Texans scored a ton of points against a pathetic Lions defense on Thanksgiving and the Colts gave up a ton of points against the Titans.  No better time in my opinion to look at the total here.  Even after last week’s debacle, we must not forget that the Colts are a top 5 defense that just had some hiccups vs some desparately good teams in Green Bay and Tennessee.  Now we do know that the Texans defense is not good at all but they at least held teams to 25 points or less the last 4 games and are now playing at home.  JJ Watt has this defense fired up.   The Will Fuller suspension will be a massive problem for the Texans when trying to stretch out the field and I think there is a chance that they will not score many points at all this game.  Indi has a good offense but Phillip Rivers on the road is certainly something to worry about and the Colts are actually only 12th in total offense as it is.   I gave this total play out on Monday under 54.5 but I still like it at 51.  I think there are many ways this game goes under and that is the best play here.

Indianapolis / Houston under 51 – 2.5 star premium shared play

Refuse To lose teaser: 6-6 for the year:  6 Pts.  Packers down to -2.5 with the Las Vegas Raiders to -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 2-8 so far for the season: NCAA: Buffalo -404, Wisconsin -565, Illinois +13.5 -110, Rutgers +10.5 -110, NFL: Minnesota Vikings -492

 

College Football Week 14 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Louisiana vs Appalachian State -2.5 O/U 51
  • These teams used to be the best in the Sun belt until Coastal Carolina came in.
  • I have App State about 1.5 points better on the power ratings but I wonder why
  • Louisiana has had the harder schedule in my opinion having to face Iowa State
  • Louisiana has a better YPP at 1.8 to App State’s 1.4.
  • Yards per rush are almost identical at 5.7 ish for both teams and same with QB rating and Passing yards per attempt for both teams but Louisiana has the slightly better D by .2 yards per play.
  • This is a rivalry game so at the 3, I have to take the Dog.

Louisiana +3 – 2 star premium shared play

Florida vs Tennessee +17 O/U 61.5 – 
When I looked at this game, one major thing stuck out to me.   When was the last time Tennessee scored over 21 points?   It was their second game of the season on October 3rd against Missouri.  Tennessee has a terrible offense and they only average 20 from playing South Carolina and Missouri.  Another thing that sticks out is that it is going to have freezing rain which usually favors the defense in these situations.  Florida can definitely put up some points if they want to but they have LSU to look forward too.   They also might not play quite as hot on the road.  They only put up 37 at Vanderbilt.  Florida has  a few weeks back.  Florida’s defense has gotten better the last few weeks due to being healthy.  Tennessee will want to slow down this game and not let Kyle Trask beat them bad.  Florida doesn’t play all that fast anyways averaging only 70 plays per game which is the same as Tennessee.  The Gators will want to get the W and get out of Dodge because they have LSU on deck.
Take the Under 61.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play 
Nebraska vs Purdue -2 O/U 61.5
Both of these teams are above average teams and both are also trying to break through the big 10 west.   My power ratings have this game right at the spread but I am more interested in the total.  Contrary to what you may think of plays per game, both of these teams play a little faster than you might think.  Since they consistenly lose time of possession, their plays per game at 70ish doesn’t tell the whole story.  Purdue actually averages 24 seconds per play while Nebraska is at 23.22 seconds per play.  A smart man told me once that the average time of possession per play per team is 25.5 seconds.  Being that these teams give up over 28 points per game, I think this game has a good chance going over the total.  The spread also tells me it’s a shootout.
Over 61.5 is the play – 2 star premium shared

NFL Week 13 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Vikings -9 to -10 hosting the Jaguars – 60% tickets and 85% of the money.

Titans -4 to -6 hosting Cleveland – 60% tickets and 82% of the money.

Falcons +4.5 to +3 hosting the Saints – 45% tickets and 77% of the money.

Colts -2.5 to -3.5 at Houston – 69% tickets and 92% of the money.

Washington +10 to +9 at the Steelers – 41% tickets and 68% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Jags vs Vikings under 52.5 – 52% tickets and 91% of the money.

Raiders vs Jets under 48 to 47 – 51% tickets and 93% of the money.

Bengals vs Dolphins under 42.5 – 35% tickets and 77% of the money.

 

College Football Week 14 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Airforce -10 to -11.5 at Utah State 53% tickets and 94% of the money.

Oklahoma state -1 to -2.5 – 66% tickets and 99% of the money.

Purdue -1 to -2 hosting Nebraska – 44% tickets and 78% of the money.

Penn State -9 to -11 at Rutgers – 45% tickets and 92% of the money.

Troy at South Alabama -1.5 to -4.5 – 53% tickets and 98% of the money.

Oregon -10 to -12 at Cal – 66% tickets and 90% of the money.

Kentucky -11 hosting South Carolina – 50% tickets and 88% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Toledo vs Northern Illinois under 59.5 op 55 – 50% tickets and 80% money.

Indiana vs Wisconsin under 50.5 to 45.5 – 73% tickets and 92% of the money.

Maryland vs Michigan over 59.5 – 93% tickets and 96% of the money.

Vanderbilt vs Georgia over 51.5 – 55% tickets and 85% of the money.

South carolina vs Kentucky under 49 to 47.5 – 32% tickets and 82% of the money.

Baylor vs Oklahoma over 63 – 5% tickets and 95% of the money.

Hawaii vs San Jose State over 55.5 to 58 – 33% tickets and 93% of the money.

NFL Week 12 Misleading Final Scores and Week 13 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Detroit out-gained Houston 388-384 yet lost 41-25.  A 3-1 turnover ratio and just horrible coaching did them in.   Bye bye Matt Patricia.

Atlanta only out-gained Las Vegas 304 to 243 yet won 43-6.  Yards per play were equal at 4.2 but a 5-1 turnover ratio destroyed Vegas.

LA Chargers out-gained Buffalo 367 to 332 yet lost 27-17.  They won the turnover battle 1-3 but some of those yards were the desperation Hail Mary at the end.

NY Giants out-gained the Bengals 386 to 155 yet won 19-17.  They also won the turnover battle 1-3 but horrible officiating kept the Bengals in the game.

Arizona out-gained New England 298 to 179 yet lost 20 to 17.  They won the turnover battle at 2-1 yet bad efficiency and a bad personal foul on Simmons at the end did them in.

New Orleans beat Denver 31-3 but Denver didn’t have a quarterback this game.  Not a real one anyways due to Covid protocols.

Chicago vs Green Bay was lots of Garbage yards so no misleading there.

Let Down Spots:

San Francisco hosting Buffalo after beating LA is a let down spot.

Tennessee hosting Cleveland is a small let down spot after they bet the Colts and got revenge.

Washington could let down vs the Steelers after that big Cowboys win but they have a shot at winning the Division now.

Get up spots:

Everyone at this point.

Look ahead spots:

Dolphins looking past the Bengals to the Chiefs is possible.

Bills could be looking past the 49ers to the Steelers.

Podcast 73 – 20 – With Kyle Hunter – College Football Week 14 & NFL Week 13 plays – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a fully loaded show for you today following up a great week of sports betting!  Our college football Podcast plays last week went 3-1.  Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks comes on to give us some great college basketball information and some college football info and plays!  First, Kiev gives us his Big 10 basketball preview from his best team to his worst!   What were these teams ATS records last year?  Which teams return what players?  Next, Kyle comes on and tells us a few things about college basketball for 2020/2021.   What is home court advantage this year?  Which teams changed their pace?  Which teams are flying under the radar and might have some value?  Next, Kyle and Kiev break down some college football games.  Then, Kiev gets into the NFL with a some free plays for Week 13.  Then he gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out at 5.5-1 this week.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.

NFL:  Houston vs Detroit – San Francisco vs LA Rams and more!

NCAA: Arizona vs UCLA – Louisville vs Boston College – Penn State vs Michigan and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

College Football Week 13 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Nebraska out-gained Iowa 338 to 322 yet lost 26-20.  2-1 turnover ratio hurt especially on that last drive.

South Florida out-gained UCF 646 to 577 yet lost 58-46.  A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.

Cal out-gained Stanford 392 to 300 yet lost 24-23.   2-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Texas Tech out-gained Oklahoma State 639 to 539 yet lost 50-44.   Turnovers were equal at 3.  Bad redzone efficiency hurt the Red Raiders.

Indiana only out-gained Maryland 349 to 300 yet lost 27-11.  3-1 turnover ratio.  Michael Penix Junior QB for Indiana went out with leg injury.

Buffalo only out-gained Kent State 663 to 578 yet won 70-41.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and horrible Kent State Run D is what did this.

Arkansas State out-gained South Alabama 494 to 486 yet lost 38-31.  They won the turnover battle 0-1 as well.

Louisville out-gained Boston College 493 to 425 yet lost 34-27.  3-1 turnover ratio.  Surprised?

Texas A&M and LSU were even at 267 yards yet Texas A&M won 20-7.   3-0 turnover ratio hurt LSU

 

 

 

 

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